Dubai shocker and what i will be doing

On this night, i shall write about my thoughts on the latest market shocker... Dubai to delay payment on its US$60B debt. Global markets had already been greatly shaken. STI will open Monday and it's direction is highly anticipated to be down, the magnitude is everyone's guess though. Next question will be... is this Dubai a non-event? Or a perfect reason for prices to pull back? Is this the end of the bull?

Firstly, my opinion on the fundamentals is, US$60B is chicken feed for UAE to rescue it. Surely we saw how the government in a concerted efforts print hundreds of billions in 2009? Also oil-rich state? How to go belly up? Then the news say, it's the repercussion that they are worried about. Hmm... recent years, i didn't read about any major interests in that city... they are neither key exporters or importers in global economy. however, as a green horn, i shall watch how the market reacts to it.

STI breaks 2700 points... should i be happy since in my earlier posts i had anticipated it to give way? Happy i am not because only the banks are moving higher. The rest of the sectors were lacklustre. In addition, my own portfolio basically at a standstill... near breakeven level only or sometimes swing slightly into negative. Like i say, if my portfolio didn't grow money, i know i am still not right as yet. What awaits me this coming week will be daunting.

Daunting because i have two choices, do i run my stocks? (SGX, CDL-HTRUST, Hyflux) or do i look to long? Maybe i should short? I am tempted to set up a very complicated hedge where i short some on Monday to hedge my longs. But i do not have the luxury of time. These days alot of travelling, you have a higher chance of meeting me in KL than Cityhall. Thus, i have decided to stick to my stop loss levels. If time permits, i will post in coming days. In time of chaos, only technical levels is what i can depend on for surely if i were to trade by opinion, i may bleed. So this takes care of my current stocks.

Now if this is just a blip the market is looking for, it is a glorious opportunity to load more into the year-end rally. If stocks do not breach my cut loss, and reverse from near support, the risk/reward favours a long. Even if i am wrong, the stop loss is nearby. But if i am right, the reward outweighs the risk.

How about shorting? Yes, i will not hesistate to liquidate my longs and turn short if those significant support levels are compromised this coming week.

Sorry that i disappoints anyone who is used to this blog...as recently, i have other priorities to take care of. If got good opportunities, I will update via here. If you are a graduate, do use the forum, i will give my two cents there more often.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Supports are still holding

Hello everyone, i'm sure you have noticed the decrease in frequency of me updating on the market. To the minimum, i'm trying to update at least once a week. This is the best i can offer as i no longer have the energy to multi-task so many things. Thus, the weekly update would be the most significant as we look beyond the daily noise. There are many methods to make money in the stock market, some like the excitement of intra-day trading, some may like to contra but i like to ride trends and trade according to market directions.

Many months ago, I was busy shorting a bull market at it's infancy stage, each time i covered my shorts, i would often time have to turn long to cover back my losses. As soon as the market turns soft, i would try to short again. In short, it is by far a "eat pig, pay dog" experience. Few weeks back, there was a Saturday night where i spent hours reading my trading diary in 2006... and i saw how i learnt from the market and what were my mistakes. One particular obvious way which i made the most money was from riding the trends of strong sector. Not only that, my game plan was solid as i build a portfolio of stocks from leading sectors. Fast forward to this year, i was more of a maverick. To be honest, i even traded FX earlier this year. Yes i made money from it but my eyes were on the screen for more than 16 hrs a day. I have to watch my positions from 8pm to 11pm... then wake up at 4am to make sure the market didn't suddenly turn against me. On active nights, i will be watching it till the wee hours. Months later, i begin to question my lifestyle. Did i enjoy the experience of following HK, SG stocks in the day time, then US market at night? As for FX, it supercedes both time zone starting at 2pm. My answer is no. It was so laborous that it killed the fun factor. In anything we do, the fun factor must be there, otherwise we will not enjoy it. I made my money from the stock market before and i know how it feels and how it is done. It certainly didn't feel this way when i overtraded too many markets, too many instruments. Thus i thought it made sense for me to do what i know best - stocks.

One of the reasons i like trading the stock market is, I can still enjoy life while my money grow in the market. I can be out the whole day either leisure or business and not worry about my positions. This is the benefit of my method. It is not a get rich quick method but a consistent method to grow money from the market while having a healthy life outside the speculator in me.

Orite, lets talk more about what you like to read most - the current market. The above is just an avenue for me to share my experience which may save you from a few obstacles in trading life. I am still vested in Hyflux and CDLHTrust. Like i say in the last two posts, so long the support of broad market doesn't crack, it is still a bull market to me. The index has to correct as the chart looks bearish, but i notice majority of the stocks are still there, nothing much has changed, they are only stuck in a range. If i want to play this range, i would rather long as close to support than to short at resistance. Because, in a bull market support will hold, in a bear market resistance will hold. You ought to have a view and trade it.

Then the big question, why did i not add more positions? Simple! If i do not see both my stocks swing into deep profits, it means my prognosis is not correct yet. Why increase the risk by adding a third position? If the market proves me wrong, instead of losing 2 positions which is still kept under my money mgmt rule, i would have lost more than what my rule allows me with the third. Thus, in this market, my risk appetite is only 2 positions at most. But once they break new high, i will be hunting for the third purchase. Meanwhile, the waiting game continues....

I am waiting to see either of the following:

1. First batch of buy signals to rally to new highs
2. Resistance level of one particular sector cracked
3. STI at it's support and resistance relative to the broadbase market

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Watching Property sector carefully.

STI went jelly legs but can i complain? At least we went the opposite of the "expected" sell-off after a horrid Dow closing last Friday. Things i like currently is selective plays are still alive. Bluechips though dead and quiet for some time but i can start to feel it coming. So long the supports are holding across most stocks, especially bluechips. This is a bull market to me.

As my title suggest, this is the one sector caught my attention purely on T.A. As we all know, the recent news about the property sector is prices are softening. Today i saw how nice Capland and Citydev moved, i cast my eyes on Hobee and Hongfok. Both stocks came up in my XPertTrader screening. However, i am seeing mixed trading from last week's results and thus this is inconclusive if we are breaking higher. The only consolation i seek is STI is above 2700. It will be interesting if i see the prop sector leads STI convincingly.

I am still holding on to CDL and Hyflux. Nothing uncomfortable abt the stocks yet and i am in no hurry to sell. Perhaps when either one swings into deep profit, i shall offload the underperforming other. Which will allow me to quickly snap up the next opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Look out for the next hot sector

Stubborn 2700 was taken down finally last week. It is highly important to me that we stay above it this coming week. What we are seeing now is that it is coming down to test the previous resistance as support. Faith will be tested. Should investors sell in earnest, then it may bring us below 2700 once again. What i think is we need a strong upward movement motivated by a strong Dow to set us up for an uptrend. Plenty of important results are up next. It seems like companies are continuing to beat estimates. This sets me thinking....

I have one trading idea to share. That is to search for the sector which delivered the most solid result last reporting quater. Their charts may be consolidating now waiting for the next annoucement and we must beat the market to it by discovering it and buy it first. For i notice, before the result is anounced, the share price may have already rallied.

I am still holding on to my CDL and bought Hyflux during last week's weakness. I akin Hyflux's movement to be that of a healthy retracement to test resistance turn support after A-Triangle breakout. CDL though still on an uptrend and from the charts, nothing too bearish as yet. Keeping my fingers crossed that Monday's weakness will not be too large a magnitude. If it is just morning sickness and afternoon glory, perhaps, it is a bullish sign.

The hunt for the next hot sector is on!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

The double top feeling

What do you see in a market when they rally on lighter volume? Especially if they retest the previous high on lesser volume? With major dow components reporting results, this could be a turbulent week. According to the news, market is looking for better revenue and not just better profit margins from reducing expenses. It will be very obvious if i see a candlestick reversal pattern right at this level. It will mimic summer'08. Financial shares seem to be weak and no sign of life as yet. Properties still lacklustre.. they exhibits the rebound with lower volume mostly. With these two sectors resting.. it's no wonder we are still shy of 2700.

If you look at STI's chart, each day we gap up only to close weaker. Is this persistent selling? If we don't stay afloat 20MA, this may be where market test 2520. Otherwise, i will take the next higher low as another cue to add more long positions in this bull market. My CDL finally broke higher. I set my sight at 1.80 and applying a trailing stop incase my double top premonition happens. I am still on a lookout for my second trade. Business travel is taking alot of my time this month and hopefully when the signal comes, i am at a location with wi-fi.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
ChinaEratat
LionAPac

I found the above stocks with good trending traits. But fundamentally, i don't see what could be the catalyst for it to go higher. I read a trading magazine lately and it said 50% depends on market direction, 30% on sector/industry and 20% is picking the stock. Thus, the two stocks above... actually i don't see any reason for them to head higher other than from charts. Though at times, charts are painted by CKs. Thus i prefer to trade stocks with fundamentals which gives me a safety net.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Finally it happens; 50-MA next

Alot of people has been asking where am i... why wasn't the blog updated. I think September summed it up very nicely, boring month! Over the last 2 weeks, did the market really moved? I think not... most of the stocks are like what my friend aptly described, vampire kind of movement.. jumping at the same spot. Thus i adopted a wait and see attitude, quietly observing what the market is trying to do. In between, i found time to travel on business trips and doing some family stuffs. If i have no trading ideas, what is there to share right? Surely we don't want this blog to turn into a travel blog? haha

Like i said in my last update, unless i see my CDL makes money, otherwise i shan't add on. It doesn't make sense to put good money after bad when the obvious was i didn't get the direction right. Though i must admit, certain stocks look to be luring me to put on a second trade. But i was wary of the after-effects of the bearish divergences which was so obvious in alot of charts. Alas, with last week's mayhem in the market, looks like it is the correct choice afterall. Though i didn't make money with that, it gives me confidence. The confidence that i know this game afterall. I found myself feeling more frustrating without a correct market opinion than losing money. This game has taught me that, every loss is a lesson learn and an insurance against bigger loss. However, once my opinion with the market is in-sync, that is where i know the money will start flowing in again. Looking back, although i grumbled about losing back this year's profits to the market, there is something to note here, while i took 2 months to build it up, i lose it over 7 long months. This reminds me of the an advise i read from a book, it goes like this... "In trading the financial markets, it is important to find a strategy that allows you to still make money despite being wrong 70% of the time." It makes sense doesn't it? How easy is it to win all the time? Or even 50% of the time? I hearsay, if you can win 50% of the time, wall street will queue up waiting to hire you. So if it's easier to lose than win in trading, then shouldn't we come out with a method to still make money while being wrong most of the time?

I am now ready to look forward to the next trade. Volatility is expected to pick up in October and i am tempted to adopt the strategy of selling into the rally since i see no reasons to be long in October where everyone is warning of a brutal month and surely this may affect buying sentiments? How about corporate earnings? Some of the good numbers maybe proped up by cutting down headcounts? I remember sales revenue ain't that good in the last report? It's just that, things are not that bad. With a good mix of good and bad econs numbers over last week, is this a hint that the quaterly results will surprise to the downside? I cannot place my bets based on speculating the results... thus i have to rely on charts. As they were just beginning to break support, i am observing if they are gonna stay firmly below it as i do not want to be whipsawed.

I set my sights at 50-day MA for now... it may act as a support. Index are still showing higher lows thus, i won't short for now and rather, i am looking to long. That's why i am still keeping my CDLHTrust - my only long trade. The next thing i am waiting for would be the 4r1g signal. That is my first sign that market is attempting to turn upwards again.

Now if the above didn't materialise, then we would have formed the early stages of a downtrend with the classic lower high and lower low. Usually the component stocks would lead the way in the fall. Thus watch their support levels for clues.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

STI tries to scale 2700 once again

In the previous 3 attempts, STI failed at 2700. In what looks like a Ascending Triangle, amazingly we are gonna try it for the 4th time. Will it be 4th time lucky? Indeed market has been rather sluggish these days. I rather wait at the lower range then to get caught at the high again. The last sell-off saw me scurrying for cover. This time round, i picked a short long and covered my HSI short position at a loss. I thought i would be killed after 21k broke out, looks like heavens gave me a chance to run and i gladly did so.

Of the list i posted last week, the stock i went long is CDLHtrust. Looks like my luck is changing as it is still near the entry price and slightly into profit. But i ain't gonna count my chicken before it is hatched. I wouldn't even consider getting into a second stock at this level. Market is sideway and i thought it only make sense to buy low in a trend, and if there is no trend, avoid buying at resistance is the least i can do. To me, i still have that thought about a sudden plunge in the market. But market as usual will not listen to me and so if it is still climbing, i shall cautiously thread along.

I am currently keen to observe how those 20-day mas are holding. It is flattening and we are hanging precariously by it in many of the stocks. Of course not all stocks will fall. Selective plays are still doing very well. But i just don't feel confident to go into one as yet. I look at the list of screening results i gotten from XPertTrader... C2O, CH-offshore, Cosmosteel, Des studio, Metro, Mermaid, Falcon...etc.. isn't it a textbook warning of a interim top whenever market is lead by such stocks?

Tonight i received quite a number of signals from property stocks. The last round they lead the first assault on 2700 but failed miserably. Nan dao, tomorrow they gonna try again?

Like i said earlier, i am sticking to just one stock at this level. I do not see those obvious signs of a trend, and i do not see rotational interest. Without those two, odds are against me.

I study with interest the chart on SPH tonight, all signs point to a higher price in coming days. This stock though slow has been very consistently heading higher. I shall continue to observe if it breaks the old high. Especially those stocks which are showing a change in trend, if they turn up successfully, then perhaps my CDL will break higher.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Beware - Do not own the stocks i am eyeing

Tonight I present something that has been missing from this blog for a long time - GrowMoney QuickPicks. Please pay special attention to these stocks because these are the stocks i am eyeing. At this stage, you do not want to hold the same stocks that i am in because i am not at the best of my luck. Thus good luck to you if your stocks is one of the following.... haha

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Ausgrp
BakerTech
CDLHTrust
F&N
China Sky
Epure
JiuTian
LiHeng

Other than F&N, the rest are pennies. I think the play is still in the pennies. The fact that the bluies are not running is still a warning to me. My strategy is to long just one of them.... this first win is what i need to know that i am on the right track. China pennies are particularly cute because of their National holiday is coming and also upon seeing HSI breaking key resistance. Having said that, isn't it wierd? With FTSE and HSI breaking into new highs... Nikkei and Dow still ai mai ai mai....

Bluechips really is lacklustre as we are heading near Mt. 2700... nan dao a big pop up is coming? I was trapped in the shooting star last week when 2700 was pierced. I went on a buying spree in an opinion we go to at least 2750... alas it was not to be and i have to run my longs and suffered a blue-black eye. If we pop up again, i will STILL try! Yeah, the rule of the game is, when i lose, i lose small, when i win i must win big which will cover most of the losses if not all. Thus i cannot miss the next big run either up or down otherwise it tilts my equation. I do not need to sit by the sidelines as i feel i am still healthy to trade. I am still thinking objectively and do not hold on to hopes or losses. I know i need to stand aside if i begin to feel revengeful, despair, hopeless, clueless.

I am still short on HSI and no new positions. I will cut my HSI if we do not see a sharp sell-off over the next few days. Bear divergence leh... nan dao i am so suay until bear divergence also work against me? Did i mention Dow also has one? The CPI surprises on the upside... if it was the old days, the market would have sold off... because it means interest rate hike may be coming... right now Obama keeps saying they won't pull out from the bailout too fast too soon... they say recovery may be weak.... now we are very fragile... so a hike is pretty remote.. or is the market running higher so that it has room to fall because a hike is coming? Are they going to risk inflation?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market Tangos Sideway

Market continues to tango sideway with the exception of Property sector still as weak. The morning gap up couldn't sustain and there was no catalyst to spark the sell-off as yet. I couldn't believe my luck when i saw that HSI will resume trading only in the afternoon. Indeed it is a grim reminder to myself to tone down and not be too agressive in trading. Why no typhoon recently and so coincident ah? I opened a position and there u go, HSI morning session closed.

Anyway i am sticking to my short for now as 21k looks to be selling off everytime we trade there. Is it luring shortists? ot is it ready to kill longists? Market seems to be waiting for some news.. the better than expected US retail sales couldn't spark a rally... i need a set of bad jobs data for now on Thursday.. :P


StraitsAsia: MTL level coming up... my idea is to fade the breakout. If wrong, wait for a natural reaction before somersault to long. This is because, after 6 months of non stop rally, market should take a breather by a brutal correction to wash out weak holders. The situation now is, alot of people are adopting a buy and hope style - "When retrace, no problem it will go up"... with more and more such market participants, soon the supply of buyers will dry up as many are vested. Without buyers, the rally can't sustain.

C2O: This one for the brave hearted. With only 2 trading weeks, the volume already looked set to zoom past the previous week's. Either i long at breakout or at weakness i sapu 1st batch and add on upon breakout. Stop loss got to be tight as this stock is obviously CK kind of stock... last one to hold the baby when the music stops lose.... cruelty of such plays.

Another stock worth mentioning will be Chemoil.. This one i like the volume and price behaviour..however i feel it may be nearing it's end soon. Every push has a target price, we as the under privileged will not know. But based on chart, it is still easy to identify entries. Again, this kind of stock, cannot be stubborn when the music stops. If you look at it's chart, it is easy to notice that every big volume days brings about retracement before another push up.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

One step at a time

HSI on Daily, Bearish divergence warning and the MTL level on the daily chart. As we are very close to the resistance, i initiated a short position. Some of you may remember i had a short position. Truth be told, in last week's rally to test the 21k resistance, i had covered my short position with a loss. In hindsight, i should have hold. But last week's follow through buying had me fooled into thinking the market may be back to it's rotational best. How naive i was. I no care, both on weekly and daily shout weakness to me and i shall trade accordingly. Once it plunges all those losses will look small.


HSI on the weekly: In what looks like a rising wedge we are seeing a bearish divergence which is a perfect setup for a sell-off. The best part is it should be happening in the next few days. Otherwise it may be invalidated. With the on-going tariffs fight between US and China, all we need is a crazy policy by either side to be the catalyst.


STI: Mount. 2700 looks strong for now. Being resisted 2 times and if we include the end Aug black candle it would be nearly 3 times. Though range bound, i don't like the shooting star with heavy volume on the 10th Sept. It is a warning i must heed. With today's gap down, we may head up to close the gap and after which i may watch if the 20-MA line holds... over the last two occassions, there were whipsaws on this line thus render it's effectiveness as a support useless. I am looking at the 50-day MA for now or otherwise the horizontal low at 2522. Best is to see CS reversal at these two locations or otherwise i remain cautious.

By now we know why the wheels are locked and the wings are tied in the property sector.... the pending announcement already anticipated.. How tricky can this market gets? It's confirmed, it will be more difficult to get a loan to buy private property. Ironically, all the DBSS projects are priced so high... how can a combined income of 8k manage that mortgage? Mana logic? Anyway NS trained me to shout my mouth when it comes to policies.. Like they say the word official has got two mouths. During the sell-off today, i had thrown my Wilmar, DBS, Olam and SC-global picked up last week. I went on a buying spree using the follow through buying as a clue.. however the engine died at the old resistance and i was alarmed by the big volume. As such i had gotten these stocks near their highs, the only sensible thing to do is to get the hell out first and reassess the situation. 4 positions is akind to hoot tua tua.. it didn't workout. Run while the losses is still small.

The heavy volume sell-0ff in property stocks might present a good opportunity. Alot of them are trading near to their 20-day MA line. Break that and we may see more downside. Furthermore there are many bearish divergences around... but i won't short as yet. I had been wrong last week and according to my rules, i should go slow. I am happy if my HSI short makes me some money.... sekidat sekidat jadi bukit... this bukit will comprise of profits for me to risk as well as confidence. Actually it isn't my confidence shaken.. i just feel irritating to not been able to read the market correctly. My focus is not on how much i will make or loss for now, rather, it is important for me to get back the rythem...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A sin called complacency

I been analysing what went wrong and how did my 20% returns since early of the year turn flat... one of the most important reason is complacency. Complacency is just a nice ang mo word for laziness. And we know in trading which is a highly intelligent game, one cannot afford to not spend the effort in analyzing. I self sabotaged myself by watching too much TV. I even made it an excuse that i need to balance life and trading to justify being a coach potatoe. How can i expect to build a fortune from trading when i am always catching the latest HongKong Drama Serials? I wasn't like this during the good old days. Every single night i would be looking at charts and Sunday afternoons are spent preparing for the coming trading week leaving only saturday for my ex-girlfriend. If i didn't make money now is because i have deviated from what was working for me. Time to get it all back. It makes sense.... in a positive enviroment, i get positive result. When i am in a dis-empowering mode, mana will make money? This explains my losses.

Following my purchase yesterday of Wilmar, i continued with DBS as part of my game plan. I grabbed DBS while it closed weak. I see today's weak and soft closing as a normal intra week pull back and expect the week to end on a stronger note. Part of my thoughts were on a soft Dow tonight which may lead local bourse to open weaker and thus get DBS cheaper. But who am i to dictate that to happen. Thus what i did was to know my E.S.P (Entry, Stop loss and Profit Target) and continue with the purchase. My next target of purchase will be property stock and may look at a second liner for off-shore services play such as ezra or swiber.. these crazy horses will fly. Remember what i said about wheel lock? That's why you see today, it really did retraced lower than where i have sold. And the China stock, Datang? It closed lower today. Just like mahjung..i feel this china stock falls under a good loss. It really seems unattractive on the charts now. I would rather look at China Coal which is a direct China coal play.

Another scenario i painted is, we close the weak lower. Upon close scrunity of the charts and judging from the follow through buying we got yesterday, this move should have legs. Which means to say, we should at least test the last high. But i do have to be objective and consider what if i am wrong. Then perhaps the market may falls back into the range. The observation of whether the selling is well absorbed is key here.

As for my HSI, i will cut if asia bourses breaks higher with 21k firmly taken out. As by then i think my long positions in stocks are poised to break upwards strongly. I will lose badly if HSI goes up and Singapore market crashes. Can this happen?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Follow through buying

The moment i have been waiting for has arrived. Follow through buying... once i see this sign, i know what i should do next and i promptly did it. The follow through buying in props caught my attention. No doubt i can buy it in the morning when the market is weak and soft but surely it is the strength in the afternoon that convince me that my opinion is right and thus i can only act upon the latter.

I have took profit on my Wheelock.. just couldn't stand it's turtle pace. The name already said it, i was slow to realise.... Wheel lock... the wheels are locked how to run fast???? Furthermore i didn't grab it near the low and if a retracement happens, i am at a disadvantage. I grabbed Wilmar instead. The fundamentals is without saying - BAGUS! The chartwise, i always like stocks breaking into new highs in bull market because experience tells me, they tend to trade higher and higher. The expensive will always becomes more expensive. Also it is dealing with palm oil. With the collapse of USD, commodities and crude oil tua cheong.. this resulted in palm oil also tua cheong. No doubt central banker will not allow USD to totally become banana notes but i am in no position to guess at which level they will do that. Thus i follow where the market is going for now. Since there is follow through buying, my next anticipation is we go take out the last high in a rotational fashion. This means any dips may be a good chance to load up more. I will be watching volume on retracement days and supports to latch on to props and banks to complete my purchase. It is never wise to overload in one particular sector unless one has privileged information or strong reasons for their convictions on that particular sector.

As for my HSI, gosh... up by more than 1300 points in 3 days??? I couldn't cut today as it is pretty silly to be cutting loss right at resistance. Thus i have decided to bid my time and watch if there is a technical breakout on HSI. The indicators already points to a technical breakout. But i shall not be a smart alec and pre-empts this market. Following my recent loss in form, i need to be patience and carve out a 20% returns first before i resume bigger positions. This is what protecting capital is about. No profit to risk, i trade small.

It's amazing how when i read those trading books about how some traders will encounter the inevitable losing streak and right now i am in the middle of one! The toughest battle i am fighting isn't on the charts... it is with my own emotions.. it feels comforting to go into a self pity state but yet, i know in order to break that losing streak is to remain positive. It is a really unnatural thing to do but do i must. Market never changes, T.A works all the same... it is the individual who is the weakest link.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

The feeling of frustrations crept up

It's been a solid 6 weeks since i departed from Trading... or did i? Actually all this while, i have positions in the market. small but definitely vested. During my reservists and also my one week break last week, i still have access to internet and charts, just that, i couldn't be fully online thus only took a mid term view of the market and kept two positions. During last week's sell-off, the drastic decline by SSE spoil my day as i was forced to cover my long positions. Not only that, i had turned short on the HSI with the view that it is gonna see at least 19.4k but i no believe the bull is dead...thus i kept Wheelock long making the short on hsi just a hedge.. As we know by now, not only did the index tua rally, mine is the worse performing out of the property rally today. This seventh month is indeed inauspicious for me. You may think, "ok ma, just lose one position only..." I need to complete this passage with the loss i suffered on Datang Power listed in HKSE. When SSE found support, i went long on this stock with the opinion that the rally will be fierce. Especially since Premiere Wen say no such things as tightening bank's credit. Mana zai market still no confident and had to tua lao before last week's fresh announcement that foreign funds may increase vested interest. The only catch i read was, there is no change to the maximum cap. Just the % so it may mean no fresh money pouring in? Anyway, it's been a eat pork pay dog month for me. Nett nett it is a negative month. Though the loss is contained within my money management rules, but it never feels good to lose. Although this kind of thinking is not healthy and not being objective in trading... i am human afterall. I wonder where did my hardened soul of yester-year went to? I could consistently grow money year after year and even in the super 2008 bear. Surprisingly, i am at this stage flat in my account for the year 2009. I have under performed the benchmark index and this is making me very very unhappy.

Nan dao like the saying goes... as a man ages... so does the guts... Anyway, i shouldn't continue to sulk at what had happened... the past doesn't represent the future. My focus should be on the market and not whinning.

I notice the keen market interest in property stocks today... nan dao the consolidation is over? I am keen to see follow through buying which is sorely missed. Without a catalyst, i find it very tough to make any intelligent guess on the probably direction. As such, it is never wise to make any move until the market shows me. One by one, i want to see the property counters take out their July highs, then i can safely shoot for the banks which is likely to follow through.

Ask me how i miss Genting and many of those high flying stars? I also would like to know. One of the reasons i reckoned was i been badly hurt by then during my early days that i do not feel confident in them anymore. No matter how nice the chart may look, those i never buy will go up, those i buy often comes down.. i dunno why it happens but happen it did to me moons ago. Thus i only focus in stocks more than $1 which is more orderly in it's movement. Especially if there is sector confirmation. The other reason could be, all these happenings now is very familiar. I seem to have traded in this kind of market before... was it 2003? or was it 2004? Like the chinese saying goes, 回忆是痛苦的根原 I been hurt in those years before.. the sexy stocks goes up and down, some retailers make a killing but most got burnt. All this while, the good fundamental stocks steadily climbs higher and if i looked back, SGX was only 1.70 back then for the taking. Believe it or not, i forsake it to trade the likes of bio-treat, junma, chinasun, longcheers.. mistakes are never to be repeated..

Sorry for being long winded... it really feel nice to talk to the invisible me... trading is lonely... with so many possibilities in the market.. i have no convictions of the direction as yet.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

重出股林 Return to Trading

I need more time before i make my return to blogging my trading ideas again... need to re-adjust my time again... Reservist is super boring that i may have become stupid and less agile... Like i said 10 yrs ago, i can be a good citizen but i am not a good soldier. let me test my market opinion with my money and once on track then i share again. I have set the date of my return on 6th September 2009.

我需要多一些时间。回了营，受了训的我仿佛以变得阑珊。。变得迟屯。。我可以是一个很好的公民，但我不会是一个好军人。 我将在这期间重组我的股市技巧与感觉。。一旦和股市的脉搏有了联系，我便再一次出击。 我估计，这一天会是在九月六日。 敬请期待。。。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Properties pause for a breather

hehehe My OCO order was triggered today! Technology! Cool! For those not familiar with this, OCO is one cancel other. I had set one protective stop to protect my profits incase the price of my banking stock comes down and then a limit sell at $12.90... oh nevermind that i missed the 6 cents higher closing price..it is already good profit, i shall take it with many thanks. haha Upon close scrutiny of the chart, wah it seems like it can still climb higher.. however, no choice, country comes first.. wahaha

Okie my property counter isn't doing so fantastically well. In fact it closed lower than Friday's closing. My trailing stop looks set to be triggered tomorrow if market gaps down. Unless Dow edges forward again! :D A quick screen shows that many property counters are resisted. It's about time they do so as they have been defying gravity for the longest of time. Financials is the star of today's session closing very strongly. Now that property sector has paused, if financial starts to do so... then perhaps market may retrace/correct. We then can start to look at those support to long again! What about commodities and related sector? They too showed weakness in price. Nan dao financial is the last leg up? lai, let's see what happens tomorrow.

Eh, you must be wondering, how come reservist still can blog? still can watch market? Today is just the first day where we settle admin work...the busy schedule should start once the orientation is complete. Why don't i take a 3 weeks break from market completely? I won't do that.. it is important that i continue to observe how the market trades during the next 3 weeks.. this will be helpful when i make my return to trading in 3 weeks time.

Counting down... 20 more days to go...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Here without Ah-Gu

I watched on as the market once again recovers from intra-day weakness and finished the Friday session on a high note. I deviated from my game plan where i would have taken profit on the banking stock which i picked up on Thursday closing. Dow didn't play punk with me on Thurs and Friday it closed strong again. I figured it must have frustrated the shortists. Once we crossed the 9k mark firmly, most bears would have to run for cover and that's what happened on Thursday night? At least this is what i think. Alright, back to my positions, i saw the market actions and somehow it prompted me to keep my positions. It looks like it's the first day of breakout and i would expect more upside for the upcoming days. Thus, i intend to set trailing stops. My idea is, if i am wrong, and the market do a sudden reversal, then at most i lose back some of my profits. But if i am right, i will end up making alot more than now. As my reservist is starting, i cannot add new positions or be active in trading. But it is still useful to check out the broad market through screening. The post market analysis confluence with what i observed on Friday. Indeed, alot of breakouts akan datang. Weakness or cautious is when i start to see many stocks not going higher anymore.

I will not be around to watch the market for the next 3 weeks. Alas, my reservist will start tomorrow... what bad timing. Somemore cannot bring laptop or my 3G phone in...7am to 11pm... Hence i can only leave orders in the system. Anyway, i will be taking this good chance to read up on more T.A techniques... to me, this reservist is like i go into the mountains to learn kungfu. wahahahaha

During my absence, i hope you guys make more! Huat arh! and i will see you as and when i can get online!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

终于让我等到了！

我的那支没用的股终于给我争气了。我喜欢它在全天最高价收市。交易量看了就流口水。除非真的那么倒霉，不然明天应该少说也有两毛钱可赚。我真的好久没痛痛快快的赢了。老天啊，如果天有情，就让我在回营训练前赢上一把吧！

昨天月食竟然打不死牛市。就和前个星期一样，明明已经开始大泄，却换来一场空。那次的教训今天提醒了我。这么说呢？请听我慢慢为您道来...

昨天股市也是以大量被卖底。在日本蜡烛价格型态我们叫做流星。认真来说，整个市场就好像看到了流星雨。这是非常熊的。碰到这种情结，一般股市应以磞盘。但我们不止没跌还反而猛升。如果我在今天还在卖空，我是在逆流而行。而且是在犯两个星期前的错。因此我在闭市前买了支银行股，希望能顺手牵牛。手头上现有两支股。

希望美国佬不要破我美梦。升啊！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Patience .... patience...

Haiyo... yesterday i slept early to watch the solar eclipse ma! :D Once in a life time leh!

Dow's 7-day winning streak really leaves one open mouth big big. By probabilities, the chance of going higher is lower without first experiencing a pull back. But pull back maybe shallow as what we seen in March. Without much negative news, i feel only normal retracement in an upward trend may happen as we go higher. The primary trend without a mistake is upwards for now.

Many are talking about possible double top as we head towards last highs. I would wait to see how market trades there before i initiate any short positions. There is a time to long at support, there is also a time where u shouldn't buy at support. Same goes for resistance. When i say wait to see how market trades there, i am refering to candlesticks patterns.

If i have positions, i would unload on the way up and prepare to buy back at lower levels. But since i only have 1 long position, i shall keep it. Hearsay duing my reservist the timing is from 7am to 11pm... sian half... however, i am thinking to keep a long position on one strong stock.. just one so that i can grow money while serving the country.

While i look for stocks to long, i notice many are too near resistance to offer any good risk reward. Thus, i think it is prudent to wait for attractive levels. Don't be surprise those levels can be reached during intra-day where we have those quick sell-offs to those levels then we close higher.. a pattern which is commonplace.

Like Livermore said, "There's a time to long, there's a time to short, there is also a time to stand aside" But while we stand aside, make sure we don't miss the next trade!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

产业股突飞猛进！

七月二十日。晴

股市不断地向上冲，简直就在嘲笑地心吸引力的理论。升了五天还能继续在升吗？海峡与恒升已突破主要的阻力线，准备创今年的新高。经济不景？失业率创高？这一些好像没在发生。管它的爷爷，尽然股市要升，砸门就卖升！

现在我手中只有一支股。虽然股市猛起，但我的股只微升，真的是气死人。对我来说，股市应该会继续盘升。但绝对不会是一条直线。当中将会有回撤，让那些错过机会的人第二次的机会。

除非上周我有盈利，不然我是不会冒险地追股价。只要有耐心，下个机会一定会出现。礼物莫股神曾经说过，在股市里，有些时候你必须卖或买，但有些时候你也必须懂得隔岸观火。明天将送上图表。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

MacD Bullish Crossovers

In my last posting, sorry i had to use mandarin because it is a rule for myself to alternatively rotate between the two languages and i can't seems to stop because it is so fun! I remembered last time when i was still an active trainer, my pet phrase is, "Trading must be fun, making money in the stock market must be fun, otherwise you must be doing the wrong things!" How true! Think about it, how many of us have read it or heard about it somewhere where the world's richest people are doing things they love to do. Logically speaking, how can anyone excel if they are not having fun in doing the things they are doing? No wonder 90% of the market participants are losing money. Many came with the mindset to make money.... alas they forgotten that they should be focusing on the process of making the money. Once you get the process right, money is the reward. Money is the result of your analysis. Michael Jordan knows he needs to shoot basket inorder to win championships... he trained hard. But what are we doing? We are dreaming about the big wins...but infact we should be focussing on the analysis. If we are correct, the money will follow. This brings to me a point on when to Hoot Tua Tua (Trading agressively)...

To Hoot tua tua, the opportunities doesn't come everyday.. i only hoot tua tua when i see obvious T.A signs and major confluences. Just like recently, i was preparing to hoot tua tua because many signs are pointing to the market crashing off a head and shoulder formation. When we rebound off a fake breakout, my rule is not to hoot. Truth be told, i would have hooted if Dow that night crashed.

As i peered through the charts over the weekend, i noticed many stocks has MacD Bullish Crossovers. Many of which are above the zero reference line which in my opinion is sign of upward trend. Earnings from the US once again top estimates. Giving strong reasons why the market should be heading north. Not wanting to miss the train, i load up on a long position. If I am right about the markets breaking new highs, i should make money off it. However, because of the big rebound last week, my risk/reward mgmt only allows me a small position which i am looking forward to add if the upward trend continues. Once the breakout happens, i will be watching for light volume retracement. OTherwise flag formation will be good as well. This is where market is looking to shake out weak holders.

If you look at the STI weekly chart, a beautiful bullish crossover has occured. Usually within the next 5 weeks we should know if this is just a whipsaw.

A watchout for me is when the market experience high volume sell off at resistance accross the board. This is a sign i will never forget because it has so far saved me from losing my profits or unneccessary losses during the last bull market.

I will also be going for my in-camp training soon... hopefully they have internet at cookhouse... 21st century army right? keke

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

三十六计；走为上计

升天了。。。需要升到这么厉害吗？没办法啦，只好大方的接收现实，很有规律的止损。我把手上的股全部平了仓。既然我的分析已错，就不应该死撑. 留的青山在，不怕没材烧。 说句实话，我也是人，看到股市这么猛，没赚钱已经非常心痛，我还得止损。。。那里不会失望。。。那里不会沮丧。如果能战无不胜就好！但，与其闷闷不乐不如把精神集中在下一步棋。

对于今天的闭市价，真的使我跌破眼镜。交易量也非常高。多数的阻力已破灭。海峡有望重登2424点大关。有了这个想法，如果不赚钱等于白说。小弟我将已突破交易策略寻找下一个目标。现在要看的是20与50天的均线。 股价的蜡烛形态也很重要。其实我也只不过是跟着我的交易计划。上周我已记载如何应用20与50天均线。假设突破成功，请注意价格回撤配合小小交易量。您看，股市是多么的千变万画，怎样的走市，我们就用相对的招述。

做什么都行就是不能乱了阵脚。下个赢家就是我们！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

When what was supposed to be ends up not to be

Tossing and flipping on the bed... the night was really uncomfortable... i staggered out of bed to check out the bathroom... took a glance on the clock.. 5:11am! Wah not enough sleep again.. as i age, i notice i am waking up way too early as if i don't need longer hours for sleep. I checked Dow and to my horror.. +185 pts up... I lie back on the bed and couldn't help imagine the worst case scenario of my stocks. There is not way I can fall back to sleep anymore. Stupid treacherous market. Even if you turn back the time, i would still think Asia was already there, broken and ready to nose dive to the south.....alas Ms Whitney had to upgrade Goldman on this night. Totally reverses the bearish sentiment.

Much to my surprise... the market did gap up but i came out just slightly worse off. Look around... most stocks did not break previous high? most stocks end the day with black candles? Those supports and resistances that i am eyeing are still intact? What about my positions? Out of 3 shorts, 1 remains profitable while the other 2 are under water but only slightly. Contary to what you read in the shoutbox above, i did not go long. Though i am tempted to! I fancy a long hedge against my short positions. However upon closer look, we are too near to resistance for the hedge to be any effective. Thus, i am eyeing those resistance level to hold. For all i need is a piece of bad news to trigger a landslide in this thinly traded market. I know i am wrong in my analysis if the market trades above 20dma convincingly and 50dma is well supported. This must happen to broadbase market for me to change my view. Another perspective which i did consider over the weekend is, the weekly chart is actually painting a bullish picture. However, in my opinion, i feel that the market may trade lower and there is one particular level which i am eyeing for the "low" of this downtrend before another upward trend develops. We were so close to getting there on Monday, nevermind, patience! What if i miss? At most i buy at a higher price knowing that the market is going to head higher anyway.

The reasons why i am hanging to my shorts:

1. Stops not triggered
2. Volume on the rebound is weak. Most of the stocks failed to exhibit confidence to trade higher. Infact many stumbled at the resistance
3. Dow is right at the resistance on the daily chart. Awaits how Dow trades at current level.
4. Goldman's result maybe priced in the run-up yesterday and today may sucuumb to profit taking. I am betting this profit taking to snowball into an avalanche
5. There's a bradley turn date nearby this week.

Add to my shorts? Surely yes if we have a sudden massive sell-off. Infact if you could understand my mandarin post last night, i was all prepared to hoot tua tua today if support cracks. Haiz... it did not happen... guess i have to wait again.

Lastly, if you are one of those waiting to catch me tell a lie in the blog, sorry to disappoint you. All you can find is my integrity and honesty. I see no reason to brag about my profits or hide my losses here. Look around, how many are there that allow readers to post comment? Put a shoutbox? Knowing fully that i will be criticised by critics or subject to targeted insinuations, my blog is still kept open for comments. The truth is, I am not ashame when i lose a trade. I will be kidding myself if i portray an image of invicibility in the stock market. There is no such thing. It is how i manage my winning trades and my losing trades that counts. Trading is a mind game where you pit against your psychological makeup. If i am so conscious about what people think of me, i am only introducing another obstacle in my trading. I remember someone asked me, since i am already trading full time and running a business, why do i still keep a blog. Well, this is me. If this is one way i can contribute back to the investment community, i will continue to update this blog until the day i am no longer wanted. I feel happy if i can brighten up someone's day through this blog. ： ）

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

就只差临门一脚

七月十三日。晴

对不起我让看不懂华文的朋友失望。 我犯了天下间男人会犯的错。在我的世界里出现了第三者。我认了，我已爱上了华文。哈哈！虽然比较花时间，但我享受这个过程。能够使我把十五年前所学的，发挥出来。 还得多谢多位江湖中人拔刀相助，纠正了我的错字。给我多一点时间，我一定把华文学好。

没有想到今天终于磞盘了。我在等待的股市大泄发生了！如果上个礼拜是冷盘，这个礼拜很有可能是上主菜的时候了。东京与恒升指数已突破了重要支撑价位。海峡今天也敌不过熊大侠的压力在靠近全天最低价收盘。２２３１看来已是熊大侠的囊中物。既然东京和恒升已表明立场，海峡因随后跟随。拥有三个买空价位的我当然非常开心。只可惜今天的交易量不高。唯一美的是价位走软，所有支撑面临威胁。

现在我有两个选择：

１：在支撑突破后，再铺上一脚，幹一票大的。这里我会先把手上的其中两支股套利然后在全压了卖跌。那么就算是错，我最多也只不过是赢少不会伤到本钱。这启不是一个四两搏千斤的好招！

２：死守我那三只股，便在套利价位进货。这是最稳的一招。

什么股呢？既然指数会跌，我偏向指数股和指数期货。

但最重要的还是道琼商指数今晚的表现。究竟是甜蜜蜜的美梦或是一场恐怖的恶梦，我听天由命。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Awaiting the mother of all triggers

I find blogging in mandarin getting more and more interesting, now i can write at a much faster speed. It's like re-learning mandarin all over again. Quite fun actually. It gives me a new reason to blog....like a second life! haha

The rebound due to the clarification of the tax rule did little to calm nerves in the market. I am wary of a big rebound since we are trading at 50-day ma... however, many charts have since made a lower highs, plus the dreaded bearish crossovers over MAs. I favour downside more than upside from here. Dow was unable to trade back above 8250 and that is a weak sign to me. In the Ang mo charts, one can easily see weakness written all over. All these can reverse if there is a powerful rally that pierce the 20MA... otherwise, so long market is below it, i will stay short.

Frustratingly, STI looked strong.. while many regional markets had fallen...i wonder why our market is keeping up the pretence... one can almost feel the invisible hands at work.. U look at SPH, SMRT and Singtel.. On a day where properties and banks were whacked... these 3 stocks hold the STI up above a key support level at 2245.. Welcome to the stock market! haha The biggest casino in the world man! The no follow through buying caught my eyes... now awaiting the mother of all trigger.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

让熊欢喜，让牛忧

七月九号，晴

就知道昨天是一个警告。收市前，银行股的牛气使我非常失望。本以为这次能够一次赢的够，结果空欢喜一场。也许是宿命注定要我一步一步来。有时候我也很羡慕一些闭着眼也能赢钱的朋友。偏偏我就得费尽心思。也罢，我想最好是安分守己，稳扎稳打。

昨天我做了一些调整，把风险降到最低。内心虽起了贪恋，但见过鬼的我早已怕黑。所以我宁愿赢少也不冒不必要的险。诺要做英雄，在股市里一定死的最快。我在等待的回弹以发生。所以我已在阻力线买空了一只股。没办法，图表上有很好的风险与盈利的比例。就连海峡也碰到了阻力。要是股市真的要大泄，就在这个价位是最好的。

当然，如果股市猛力回弹，我也不会做个笨小孩。我把注意力集中在20与50天的移动平均线。多数的股以在50天的移动平均线上下交易。如果我们能守在50天线上，并且突破20天线，这会消除了熊意。相反的，如果20天成为新主力，这可能是一个买空的好机会。

现在手上用有两只本地股和一只美市指数。全部都是买空。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Did you see what i see?

I saw: black white black white black white black white in the box... Dow is doing a roulette with us? :D

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Managing my risk in this falling market

Properties actually looked quite firm yesterday as they did not crash through the key support levels. But the news abt tax on capital gains spooked the market. Ok, i am not short on properties and thus didn't benefit. But the cake sim part is when u see the rest of the market falls like a rock and ur stock goes up! DBS! I had great plan on how to make big bucks trading DBS. Waiting to hoot at the breakout and then cover back only to short again at the re-test. I covered DBS near closing because i didn't like the high volume and the resiliency it shows in a falling market. This is confirmed with the other two banks which also closed higher off the support. Now i have to devise another plan to benefit from this falling market. Which i did so in the afternoon.

I went short S&P futures with an opinion that the head & shoulder patterns i saw all over the place is going to drag the global markets lower. I see more downside than up even if there is a rebound, i suspect the rebound will be weak. Look at STI, held up by invisible hands... despite Nikkei and HSI fell badly. This pretence cannot sustain surely. Hence my bet is on US markets to lead the downfall. I won't know exactly when, but i know i am wrong if those heads and shoulders are violated. I will also be keen to watch for weak rebound to initiative more shorts.

Currently i am still short on one local stock and S&P futures. I asked myself, do i want to hoot tua tua at this time? What are my probabilities? I have to admit, it will be silly of me to hoot right here. This is not the time to be agressive. I prefer to wait patiently at the next rebound. That is where the risk/reward is the highest! What i done today is to keep my good profits in DBS and then use this profit to risk a S&P short. If i am right, then i make more money. If i am wrong, at most i lose back some profits. I am increasing my profit potential here with low risk. On the other hand, if i hang on to my DBS shorts, and then still short S&P, then when i am wrong, my profits may potentially be wipe out by the new short in S&P. The reward, certainly more profits if i am right. The above two scenarios are my considerations this afternoon and i choose to make more profits with smaller risk.

Remember, it is a sin to lose all ur profits back to the market.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

非常时期；兴奋无比

先给大家一个图表，今晚必送上分析。发啊！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

当熊仔来临时

各位乡亲夫老门，大家一定觉得惊讶，是不是来错了地方？放心，这还是小弟我，帝赛福。最近不知为何有点神精嘻嘻的，心有点七上八下。。非常不安。 除了在此地，恐怕没有属于我的世界。读到这里，您应该以察觉到我的华文并不强，所以如有错字，敬请包涵。因为，今晚我心血来潮，将使用我的母语记载我对股市的看法。大家来尝试新的体验！

今早的稍微回单其实是一个很好卖空的几回。如果说挨了两天的熊仔消魂掌才来信灾乐祸，这是马后炮。在上周，我就已技术分析法买空了一只指数股。当时我的唯一考量是风险对盈利比例非常的好，可说是难得一见的大好机会。有没有包赢？等久就有。不然我早就破釜沉舟全压了！ 股票不是这样玩地。这是一个马拉松，钱就是我们的氧气。不能一次用完。要是破产，便会害人害己。

在股市里，我发现了许多反转图形。这是非常熊的。如果只有一两只股也巴。 但如果是在大多数的图表里看到同样的现象，这是一个警告。所谓欲先善其事，必先利其器。如过大家引用差别合约，我们就可卖空。把本来忧郁的熊市变成一个开心的时刻。

就如上一个记录，我任然很注意那些支撑价位。如果说这只是一个段斩的调整，那些支撑将会非常坚固。相反的，如果被突破，我便会在下个测试回单继续卖空。要不然在这个价位卖空的风险相当高。这就是我的计划。如今我在股市里有两个卖空的位置。最好是海峡指数能破2240 点，迈向2180点！


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

50 DMA is the key level

After my studies, i realised 50-dma seems to be the key level for the market this week. There are stocks trading right at 50-dma, some infact broken and many others still slightly above it. God knows what will happen if those above catches up. Is the market setting up for big crash? Earnings will kick off soon and after a dismal job loss report, the market seems to be anticipating to sell off any sign of weakening quaterly reports. If the earnings come in better, it may be the perfect ingredient for a rally.

Dow's 8250 maybe the confidence the market needs... both S&P and it has a Head and shoulder lookalike which echoed some of the stocks in the SG market as well. Nan dao... this time i hoot tio seh? keke I am also looking at HSI at 17,300 and how Nikkei trades 9.5k.

N.Korea fires missiles to celebrate independence day with defiance. Back in 2005/06, market always react negatively to N.Korea's actions for fear of a war up in the North. Recent test fires has been largely ignored. I think it is because back in those years, economies are still growing, market is bullish and looking for a reason to pull back. Fast forward to current market, we are talking about green shoots, however econs data were often mixed and job losses continue to worsen. We are still not sure of recovery and market heads uncertainties. Hence many look forward to improved earnings as a sign.... that is key. From the charts, i can see that the market has pulled back to wait for more clues.

As of now, i feel it can still go either way. We need those key levels to be compromised first.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market barely clinges on...more downside to come?

It wasn't comfortable yesterday. The market rebounded ferociously against my short position and while stop loss was not hit, sometimes you are tempted to just cover the position and stand aside. With only 1 short position, i can afford to take the risk and hang on to the position. This is not blind faith and certainly not based on hope analysis. This is risk management couple with T.A. What i saw in that rebound on Wednesday is the light volume. I just can't believe the rebound can sustain on a very obvious light volume. Resistance still holds while we rebounded with light volume. What happens there and why the light volume, this i won't know. Livermore couldn't have said it better, the why usually will be answered after the move has started.

It was satisfying to see market tanks in the afternoon. However it all points to nothing if we don't close lower by Friday. Because from where the technicals are showing, naturally it should falls lower. If we trade higher on Friday - TREACHEROUS! Currently Dow is 3 digits down...sort of confirmed we are going to go down tomorrow. Pls dun get me wrong, I am not saying this is the start of another bear market. I just thought the market is showing that it is going lower and i just trade accordingly. As a market participant, we are like a boxer, we must know when to long, when to short.

Below shows the only short position i have in this market. I need the head and shoulder formation to form...once formed, i will swing into full shorts. Otherwise i feel the current volume is still not a strong indication. Bear rebounds are quick and can be high....shaking shortists out of position. It will be nice if tomorrow we wake up to a -280 from Dow... c'mon Dow u can do it!




DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

June is over

The boring June is over! On this very last day of June... instead of finishing strongly, we were unable to close higher and infact mercilessly sold down near closing. This could mean funds already undressed? hahaha STI though was held up by invisible hand... this could be to squeeze index shortists over at the futures market. Broadbase market looks weak and were unable to clear resistance. I choose to square off my long and turn short right here. It has been bugging me for much of the day. All the resistance levels were screaming at me. As i see the falling market, charts after charts, they seems to be ready to plunge down. It is indeed ugly and i do not like the fact it doesn't trade higher today. Lower highs is very obvious and i thought i saw some head and shoulder patterns potentially forming... once those breakout, i think ripe for coming off.

Hum ji is tan bo jiak one. No care, i will just short one position and take it from there. Technically, it is a sell signal, the risk reward is mouth watering. If i don't short with technicals, there is probably no other reasons to short? At most i am wrong. In trading, we cannot afford to be afraid to lose. If we fall, we get up, dust ourselves and look for the next trade. 富贵险中求！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Show me the volume

A super quiet session... very light... that's why we see the price swings up and down easily. Nothing conclusive from this session.... the waiting game continues...

The next direction with volume should indicate where we are heading. As of now, long or short may make peanuts... but when the direction suddenly breaks out, i may lose more than those small wins. I rather be patient and wait for a clear chance. I was tempted to initiate a short position in "anticipation" of a weak market going forward. My friend reminded me that it doesn't pay to be hero at this stage. With such light volume, market can go either way and i will get whipsaw out.

Weather is so different tonight as compared to the last few days.. it is so cool. My senses tell me the temperature is perhaps at a comfortable 28 degrees tonight. If only Singapore is always this weather, how nice. Perhaps this is the type of market where traders can take some time off the market and relax. A sms disrupted my peaceful night as i am penning down my thoughts tonight. MinDef reminder to attend ICT in July... argh!!! Hopefully no need to stay in then can still trade! :D OTherwise got to smuggle my 3G phone to camp liao.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bye bye Michael Jackson

The world lost it's greatest pop star Michael Jackson... this legend really took the world by storm and through his popularity i saw what stardom is really about. Simply awesome. Growing up in the 80s... no way you will not hear about him. No matter how hard other stars try, he is still the only one whose music and name bring together different race, differnt country. His energy on stage is infectious. Though not a big fan, but i remember Tony Robins in his tapes mentioned Michael's success wasn't by chance.. he worked hard to achieve it. He knows what he wanted, he worked till he gets there. If only i can keep up with his kind of dedication, discipline and passion.... my dreams will come true too.

*snap* Get on with market!

Was last week's weak closing due to the usual Friday weakness? Or was it a warning to what may lie ahead. This is the pop-up that i had anticipated since last week. The weak closing spoil what otherwise i feel maybe a good chance to scale 2400. Furthermore the hammer on the weekly chart isn't on any significant support and hence i feel it may be just a pause in the selling. Hence i still opt to be prudent. There are times i feel extremely at ease at assessing the direction, currently it is definitely not the case. To make matters worse, my left eye keep twitching.. i wonder what bad news looms... It will be auspicious if we close next week a white candle. This would mean any intra week weakness may be a good chance to go long. It will be super duper good if Dow breaks the 200-dma... i'm sure alot of T.A practitioner is eyeing that. However, if we indeed start July in the wrong foot, then i am better off looking to short.

Commodities stocks looking hesistant... perhaps Alcoa result may give it the push it so sorely needed. I still have my long position in properties. Lets see what Monday brings.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Weekly versus Daily

On the weekly chart, it still points to more downside. However the daily chart looks like turning. This is a very good level for the market to turn upwards. A quick screen on the market reveals that the volume still ain't returning as yet. So long you didn't buy at the high, i'm sure despite the swings in the market, the current price should be still around your breakeven price. I am also seeing a good chance for the market to bounce from here. The next 3 sessions will be key. I would be particularly interested to see the market close higher in the next 3 sessions. Otherwise we may plunge further.


Sector Analysis: After rounds of selling... two sectors stood out from the rest, properties and commodities. As we see the index falls lower and retest 2210s to 2230s level, only properties and commodities showing similar actions as depicted. Both sectors retest lows while the rest lower lows. Hence these are the two sectors i would be more interested in.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Late sell-off

I thought my gut feel proved itself when market got off to a roaring start in the morning and early afternoon. Alas, market shows that it takes more than gut feel to make money off it. I read with interest my post last night on how i refused to trade on my gut feel... indeed it pays to follow the market instead of placing my bets on where it will trade. Livermore said, "Ask not where the market is going, but ask what you will do when the market gets there". Very wise words. It had helped me at times when i feel confused about the market just like now. Ming ming it looks like it's going higher, but why the nasty late sell off? What am i missing here? The volume again in today's sell off is light which means to me, less significant.

Fed's meeting may turn out to be a non event unless he really do the impossible: hike the rate. All other econs data may just be the excuse to move higher. Nan dao, market consolidates first and leave some room to cheong once data confirm the strength of the economy?

Really is bo li you....

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Next upward wave coming?

As planned, the mid-week rally saw me cutting down from 3 long positions to now 1 long position. Those two that are i cut were at a loss. I learnt to take small losses first instead of being stubbornly and painfully wrong. I mean it is clear to me that those buy signals didn't work and from my experience they may point to more downside. More downside doesn't mean the bull is dead, it simply means i may be too early. There is a SIGNIFICANT difference here i would like to share. The buy signals i used to trade was when the economy is doing well and is still booming... the recent buy signals were from a time when there is still much uncertainty about the economy. Simply said, the pull back can be pretty deep as compared to that of the bull market. Hence, i opt to reduce my risk exposure. If everything is fine, i can always add on to longs. As of now, if even this one position turns out to be a bad trade, the market may head lower.

My anticipation of the coming weeks is perhaps another push upwards and then form a lower high. This i have to watch the broadbase market for any evidence of hitting resistances and not moving any much higher.

The other reason why i am still keeping a long position, technically this pull back to me still looks like a normal and healthy retracement. But alas, i do not have the conviction to go full long. I still need to watch for more obvious signs before i add on to my positions. I may repeat, i would not maintain my risk level nor increase it just because i feel the market is in a healthy retracement. It sure is a fast way to lose a fortune by trading on "feel". After my daily screening... it sure looks like market is.....

....if i am right, then this coming week should see the resume of uptrend in anticipation of the next quaterly earnings in July. Not to forget we have the mid year fund dressing to look forward to. Index stocks are those that may benefit most.

On the index front, HSI looks pretty decent despite the horrific week. Based on the weekly candlestick analsyis, it seems like the hanging man got confirmed and HSI should head lower. However in T.A, if a bearish signal doesn't work out, the movement in the reverse direction can be very powerful.

Last but not least...... 赚钱的好机会来了！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

It is indeed very ugly

The thing about working in KL is, either u go home at 4pm, otherwise you must stay until 8pm... anything in between, you get stuck in peak hour jam.... that's how it was for me over the last few days. The worse part is the internet at the apartment is super unstable... can't even post anything here. Add all these to the recent market correction, super recipe for a frustrating experience. wahaha

Truth be told, i have 3 long positions! Yeah this should be very juicy and hot to read about keke. When i went long last week, i knew the risk is significantly higher than previous 2 months. Especially when i do not see a follow through in buying after the wave of signals. The only thing that protects me from burning a big hole in my trading account is my stop loss levels with a 2% capital limited loss. Each time when i put up a position, the first thing i would consider is how much am i losing in this trade if i am wrong. As it is now, all 3 of my positions are still closing at the stop loss level i had pre-determined. Will i keep them? This will depend on how the market trades and what are the possible scenarios i have painted.

If this is one of those sharp pull backs in a bull market, then we still have some room to fall. To me, this is only the first stage of this correction. At the next rally, i will definitely reduce my positions from 3 to 1. To turn short, i will do so after i receive either a retest of support levels or the first batch of TT1-short signals.

As of now, another possible scenario is, today is a whipsaw and we will close higher and continue the uptrend. June being June is an usually quiet month where the market can swing either way since the volume is thin. The important clue is what will happen after June where another barrage of company results will come.

I am also patiently waiting to see the 3-stars aligned... that is a very rare signal!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

1 more try to scale Mt 2400

Nikkei led this superb rally today.. the usually weak Nikkei has the audacity to test 10,000 points. HSI and STI both are now closer to the previous high..18,900 and 2400 respectively. If we can close the week above these levels.. bullish! Even Dow is very close to 9k...

I favour two sectors - Properties and Commodities as they shown great volume behaviour over the last 2 days. Especially for today where the whole market moves up a gear in anticipation of a rally! Yeah... it's in the air... we can all smell it. Only Dow stands in the way between a nightmare and a sweet dream.

I have a whole long list of signals. Signalling that this may be the next wave upwards. This time really must maximise the opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls got slaughtered

This deep deep pull back caught everyone by surprise. I had high hopes of seeing Financials take the lead to clear 2400... it's all but vanished as the bears mercilessly sold down the market. Is this the start of another bear leg? I doubt so... technically we had moved too high too fast.. it's only natural to pull back for consolidation. Especially property sector.

Now it is time to watch how market trades at support... the next chance to long or short is very very near.... just a few more days and we will be staring at key support levels. My eyes will be on which sector to turn the corner first! Or which sector to lead the downfall?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Financials and Commodities to pull ahead?

2400 remains a stubborn resistance for STI. It looked as if we are going to turn ugly from here but the market remains resilient. From my sector analysis performance chart, it looked like Financials and Commodities may be leading the next charge at 2400.

Props and the rest remains weak for now. Offshore looks kinda of flat for now. We can understand why, a quick glimpse at the charts and you can see that they are not moving in unison for now. Everyone is surprised to see Cosco lagging.... Kepcorp has a customer bankrupted, SembMar mysteriously came down. Maybe a consolidation is good for this sector.



I was flipping my archives today and found this >>> http://growmoney.blogspot.com/2007/01/growmoney-growth-fund-swings-into.html .... the day i broke even. : ) Whenever i read this... it reminds me to be humble and stick my foot firmly on the ground. Especially the part on wedding... a wedding delayed... haha what was i thinking back then!

C, this is dedicated to you... i hope you know my drift...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

GrowMoney Sector Analysis

As you can see, while the rest of the sectors were pulling back, Financials are still strong. It was the last one to turn up. The last updated on my indices shows that many have pointed lower. The next thing of interest is which sector will be the first to turn up. I will update again on the sector of interest.

For now, my screening shows that we have a pretty decent day where the support still stands. This is something which i had wanted to see. The average volume for leading stocks are not high on this retracement day. I went long again on financial with a single position this time since in the afternoon we rebounded off the lows. I had actually wanted to be agressive with another position on HSI. However, surely when the index is near the stubborn 2.4k, it is not time to be agressive yet.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls got slayed in the final hours

The morning began with a quick peek at how Dow closes.. A mere 19 points up and Nikkei was flat.. i heaved a huge sigh of relief as i am wary of bearish confirmation today since there were many ugly candles yesterday. The day erupted into a rally throughout the day and financial and property led strongly. However, just like yesterday, the day ends like a fart. I view the afternoon selloff as a bearish sign with many stocks unable to break higher. HSI is the one that dragged us... a shooting star now lingers on the daily chart. I was away for a meeting.... otherwise i would have shorted HSI near closing... keke *Horse Back Canon" Another point that i considered was Dow had closed right on the 200DMA resistance last night. Usually, if it wants to clear resistance, it will just burst through.... Lastly, Nikkei after market, its futures retraced badly.. very ugly.. With the odds stacked against me... i think keep the profits better. I missed a bulk of the property rally... to be able to still latch on to banks and offshore, i think i shouldn't be tum sin. F puts it very well.... market will take the money back from you if you don't keep it properly. Furthermore, technically, profit targets already met.

I closed all my long positions today. Just do not feel comfortable with the afternoon sell off. Picture this, morning we float higher then we hit by heavy selling in the afternoon. It's a textbook warning. Futhermore, it will be very stupid of me to leave good profits on the table. Now that the profits is safe and warm in my pocket... psychologically, i feel so much better.. i think tonight i can sleep like a baby liao. I just checked, for the month of May i made abt 10% of trading account. So far only March i lost. Rest of the months are profitable... if i can maintain at a modest average of just 5% per month for the rest of the year, by December my account should be up 75% for the year 2009. Working hard towards it! The only fear i have is self sabotaging. Many times when i am up by more than 20%, i end up taking unneccessary risk and lose a substantial amount back to the stock market. This is a flaw in my trading i must be fully aware of. If i can stop losing money, i will make more money. Loon ah! Cannot be impatient ah! That's why i avoided shorting today. It is technically still an uptrend... uptrend i should buy low sell high.

Meanwhile, i am looking to buy back if thursday is resilient. The plus sign i saw from my screening showing it may be a natural retracement in a intra-week pull back. If support holds on Thursday, we may close higher on Friday. Once again, Thursday will be key to me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls over-shadowed

The market turned soft after lunch along with the big gap down by HSI. Being long on two stocks, i would have loved to see another bullish day. Unfortunately market decides to pull back. Although it is normal for market to pull back after the strong rally on Monday, but while screening the whole market, i found alot of bearish candles lying around.. those with high upper shadows.. Some even formed bearish engulfing pattern. Even STI closed rather weak off the 2400 gate. Where is the bull strength it exhibits weeks ago?

Property sector exhibits extreme weakness. After leading STI to clear the 2280 level, they showed great selling interest. What if last rally was due to window dressing? Usually they will undress, is the market experiencing undressing? If weakness continues tomorrow, i will watch those key support levels closely. Lets cross our fingers that this is just an intra-week pull back.

Financial stocks? Though STI broke through 2280 successfully, this sector has been rather mixed and muted.. most of them has yet to break their previous high. I wonder isit possible for the market to crash sharply while we no see banks break those highs? nan dao... it's a chance to....

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Financials to lead next wave?

On the last trading day of the week, finally i see some glimpse of hope from the financial sector. If market is to move in a rotation fashion, then surely it will be their turn to rock the market while properties take a rest? The powerful rally of the property sector reminded me of 2005 where Mr Mah announce a bullish news for the developer... something like they make it easier to buy private properties... then all hell breaks lose for the property sector. Perhaps some news is leaking out already? Anyway, since i don't belong to the privileged, i need to work harder.

Currently, the divergence on Dow is very pronounced. As such, i am not adding positions as yet. The last time i ignored a divergence, orh bak kak... keke those sudden crash type of market... the pain still lingers inside me... the fear is almost bone crushing.. 8.6k is where i set my sights on...

After doing my random walk in the stock market through XPertTrader, generally i have 2 feels. Firstly, there are strong closing on some index stocks, especially those properties... then i saw many ugly closing with long upper shadows that comes with high volume... this is an unwelcome sight. It smells of bear. To me, financials and offshore should lead the next wave. Otherwise, i am turning cautious.

I believe if Nikkei ignores North Korea again, HSI plays catchup then we will have a wonderful rally tomorrow. Otherwise that stupid curly hair kwai lan kia may spoil this party.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.