Monday, October 30, 2006

Market Massacred!

As anticipated, market gave way. I did what I had to and cut loss on ChinaSun, bought 0.775 and cut at 0.675. Shit happens in life and it happens in the Stock Market as well. Of so many stocks, ChinaSun has to be one of the worse hit by the bears today and most importantly, i must be the one holding it!! haha! I didn't like the heavy volume selling which broke the support cleanly. Only common sense is to run first. Losses are part of this game. I had learnt to take it in my stride.

Looking back, if I had not sold Capland and HSI for profits last Friday, i will be looking like a damn fool. This was exactly what happened in the old days, where I hold on to stocks greedily and hope for more profits. Dudes, in the market, one need to grow up fast. You simply cannot repeat your old mistakes all the time. Remember what I said about ChinaStocks last week? If your portfolio is made up of 50% China Stocks, i'm sure you are bleeding badly. This group of stocks never fails to stun investors with nasty losses.

What about BioTreat saga?? He say someone forged his signature? He only know today?? What has he been doing? Company's developments, share placement, he didn't know anything about them? Is he basking himself in KTV everynight? Keeping scores of misteresses? No wonder BioTreat is "sai" chwee.
This is a grim reminder that we have plenty of second rated China companies listed on our bourse. Why can't we get the good ones like China Mobile, Bank of China and ICBC ? China's telecom market is huge!!! All we can get is one handphone designer known as longcheer... haha!


Current Holdings:
Time to keep a close watch to avoid another May'06 disaster. If anything, just sell first and look back later. This is your only insurance against huge losses.
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.17


Market indices direction wise, I'll be monitoring how support levels hold. If the rebound is weak, I will hoot Put Warrants...if support holds, I will hoot Call Warrants. Indices will be rocking up and down, it's grow money time!!! :D hehe I will be shouting at the shoutbox should i get involve with any warrants. Stocks, i will leave them alone for now....awaiting to bottom fish rather than catching a falling knife. What are the stocks to pick up? Of course good FA counters man!!! I will continue to ignore those kiching kurung stocks.

US market should be down tonight, inorder not to have nightmare, I shall not be bothered about the opening ! Let Channel Newsasia read the closing to me tomorrow morning. hahahaha!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

How deep will the retracement be?

A poor GDP provided enough reason for traders to take profit and halted Dow's progression into the uncharted territories. I checked and found Dow's retracement can test 11,800. On the hourly chart of Dow, supported near 12,000. Let us see what unfolds on Monday night. The poor GDP could be the catalyst for a decrease of interest rate by Big Ben maybe?

On the regional scene, HSI and Nikkei finished Friday's session on a weaker note. STI followed the footsteps as traders took profits in unison. I am one of them! haha I square off my HSI Call Warrants when the morning rally couldn't sustain and HSI was retracing along with the poor closing of Nikkei. This one is bought at 0.410 and sold at 0.475. Next trade was to close my Capland's call warrant. Bought at 0.170 and sold at 0.200. My reason for selling is because if STI is to retrace, Capland will definitely be involved. I will just wait for another opportunity to trade it again. Protecting my profits come first!

Current Holdings:
ChinaSun @ 0.775
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.17


I will be watching 2 levels of possible support for STI. 2686 and 2670. Pullbacks and retracement is only healthy and natural. With Dow's negative close, we should have reactions at the opening bell. Reminder, HSI is closed tomorrow.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

STI 2700 is a thing of the past!

Hello hello hello! STI 2700, who would have thought? haha There isn't much pull back before we break 2700 and that is really a surprise to many. As per my article last week, i am still fully loaded with stocks. While my anticipation of STI to break 2700 was fully correct! However not all my stocks moved. And guess what? My ChinaStocks are giving me problems!!! What's NEW??? They are damn tricky! Often times, they just give you a one day wonder. The more I look like China Shares, the more it looks like they are taking turn to rally. The rotation must continue otherwise I will cut soon. It is extremely risky to be buying anything at this level, if you must buy, make sure you are nimble. As explained in my strategy class, I noticed since 2004, there is a particular time each year where it is a must buy! Let us all be patient for now and I shall chart to your heart's content when i think i want to buy. Otherwise, i will be a damned fool for listing out stocks that I myself dun buy and entice you to buy.

This blog is my trading diary, things i learnt from my trades, i wrote it down. Hence no way am I paper Trading. By the way, i have been observing one guru. It is so obvious that he keeps quiet when he is wrong and that he only talks about profits and never mention the risk involve in a trade. An example, "if you have bought so and so warrant, u have now a 10 cents profit and if you buy 20 lots, it's $2k in a day's work." What about the downside? What if the warrants move against you and you own 20 lots? Dudes, if you are new to trading, always consider your risk/reward. Do not be blinded by quick money!

It's been a long time since I have charted for you, my distinguished guests. Tonight I would like to share Cosco Corp, TatHong and ChinaSun.


Cosco Corp: The volume today break out and price close into the all time high. The previous times when Cosco Corp acts this way, it continues to head higher. $2 stock soon? I certainly hope so! :D For those interested to know why I bought in the first place, you may check my July Archives.


ChinaSun: Did you see the obvious Downtrend? 50Ma is cutting 200MA soon and this will bring ChinaSun into it's bearish phase. Did you also notice a positive divergence? Or how the price is now at support levels? I think support is going to hold and 50ma will find 200ma a support rather than break it. If i'm wrong, i will cut.



TatHong: 1.15 was a great catchment area. There is also a gap support at 1.17 . the pull back with light volume after breakout was a classic T.A buy signal. Let's see if there is further upside. Obvious uptrend.

DBS, Starhub & Noble. What do the 3 stocks have in common? They all have CandleSticks Reversal Patterns. My XpertTrader pick them up using the CandleSticks rules that i created to screen for Bullish Engulfing and Hammers. Did I buy them? Certainly not! I am and always will be a honest trader with a blog to share. Just look around you, how many "gurus" or analyst dare to show their losses? Mostly keep quiet and hope people don't remember. When they win, they will boast how easy it is. Deceptive marketing I call them because trading is never easy! As for me, my portfolio is open for all to see and comment. I have nothing to hide. It is a open secret that it is how much we win when we are right and how much we lose when we are wrong that matters! Ok ok back to the trades. It is the dilema of putting on a trade despite market trending higher. We know it's going to be risky and hence I decided not to put on a trade. Today they simply rock the roof. So do we just buy when we have a T.A buy signal? Don't we need to consider market wisdom? Hmm.... food for thought.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Hari Raya Special - 股票必胜法


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Fully Loaded! Going for goal!

If you are wondering, why are there no articles? Let me explain, when I last blogged last Wednesday, market has been moving up for a couple of session and I feel a pull back should occur and I decide to hold back and wait for it to happen. It seems to be a wise decision because the risk/reward isn't great. The other reason was, it's the result season in US and I was busying loading up on call options and following the US news.

Let me refresh my positions:
ChinaSun @ 0.775
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
CapLand Warrants Strike 5.15 @ 0.170
TatHong @ 1.17
HSICW Strike 18200 @ 0.410

As you can see, I have picked up quite a number of stocks over the last few sessions. TatHong was picked up by a new rule i developed to screen for very light volume retracement. It's FA is fantastic and hence I picked up. I had wanted Hongguo as well but my queue at 0.715 was not done and hence I decided not to chase. But Hongguo will be one stock I will load up once i dispose my other China plays. According to past experience, it is wiser not to hold too many China Stocks. 1 bad surprise can cause accross the board China play sell down. But recent news releases are very positive for China stocks to a point that I have this feeling that china plays is being deliberately enticed to move higher.

Scrutinising my portfolio further, u will notice not all of them are in profits, but what to do? They refuse to move!! Especially MediaRing and SembKim! But once they move, I think will be powerful. I am not cutting anything as yet. Let us see what tomorrow brings.

As for my late HSI Call Warrant purchase today, I decided to go for OTM warrant versus ITM. ITM will have higher gearing which means it will move faster then OTM relative to the underlying. But this is a double edged sword. What happens if you get the direction wrong? It will move against you just as fast! Hence my strategy for trading warrants is, if i'm wrong in my direction, my warrants must move slower, but when i'm correct in my direction, my warrants will turn from OTM to ITM and it's gearing will be increasing! Nikkei's after lunch reversal caught my eye and I tracked HSI's futures after it reopens at 2:30pm. It indeed rallies from negative to positive and pushing 18,000 levels. My gut feel say wait for a pull back and to my pleasant surprise it really did! Dudes, when something like that happens, it means anticipation of market movement is correct and we should follow through on our anticipations. This is a repetition of my earlier HSI trades. Apart from gut feel, I had also studied the movement of DJ and there are many results going to be announced and of those, i did a research, should be positive. Also how the resistance turns support for HSI worked wonders.

For Market to tua rally, Tomolo headline, "Rice convinced Kim" a picture of them shaking hands. hahahaha

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Tech Stocks rumble

Tech stocks has been quiet for a long time. Today they started to breath fire. My XpertTrader scans for rotational plays showed plenty of tech stocks. GlobalTest, MemoryD, UTAC, Chartered, DMX, DataCraft. Buying tech stocks is never easy, highly volatile! My favourite would be DataCraft. Superb business growth, share buy back, yet the stock price has been in a depression. Weekly chart looks set to form a reversal pattern, price had kissed the 50ma.

As for indices, i am still waiting by the sideline. North Korea has added tension in Asia Bourse and one would expect high volatile movement. For those who had the guts, you may try when HSI rebound off 17,700s level, this level has been retested 2 times. 3rd time lucky? But upside is capped at 17,867 thereabouts. As for nikkei, 16,400 resistance turns support. Let's see how this support holds.

A key reminder, earning season is here! Lookout for stocks with promising growth!!!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Market shakes off Nuclear Threats

Underlying strength is bullish! Bargain hunters stormed the market after US ignored Kim's nuclear test. I picked up 2 more stocks today, ChinaDiary & Media Ring. Nope! I did not sell my first batch of MediaRing, i added more today. Both counters had registered high volume breakout and true enough, a scan on my XpertTrader confirmed that. From the list, I observed SPH had cut above it's 200MA! Sunshine days coming for SPH fans! 200MA support at 4.14. Also, I saw Datacraft beginning to be active! With a hammer on the weekly chart last week, if this Friday it closes with a white candle, it is a candlesticks reversal pattern on the weekly chart.

STI is within 18 points to 2665, the high in May'06! 18 points is easily achievable! We rebounded off the gap resistance turns support. ShowTime!!! Sheng sheng sheng!

Another thought, with splendid performance by Ezra, Labroy & KS Energy, will SembMarine starts to move soon too? hmm...

Interesting Results from XpertTrader Screening Rules:
Nearing or at All Time Highs
CGTech, Genting, HoBee, HongGuo, Jaya Holdings, Midas, Labroy Marine

Position updates:
Capland, MediaRing, ChinaDiary, Cosco

Sector in play:
Property, China plays, Gas & Offshore

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Market shaken by nuclear test

I would like to send my warmest regard to kim's mother. Ta ma de!!! I know market is looking for a pull back, but doesn't mean he has to be the catalyst!!! Now we won't know what he is up to next. Market will be cautious and very volatile just like HSI index today...swinging up and down in a single day. I have sold my Celestial at 1.59 (Bought 1.52 last week) when i first heard about the nuclear test. It is done to minimise my exposure to market should it decides to correct. Emotionally, i would hope to sell Celestial at 1.68, but i cannot let my emotions decide. I should know this very well. Especially during the last round where I had bought at 1.62 and the stock went to 1.68 and i allow it to retrace past me to sell at 1.51. Mistake in the market should not be repeated!

I would think the market merely reacted to the nuclear test and investors/traders took this as an excuse to book profits. Once reactions are over, bargain hunters will flock in, this will be the sign of a strong underlying bull sentiment. Something I will be looking out for. Otherwise I will be cautious. STI's pull back is only natural because we had closed the gap in May'06. A pull back to form a base will be very good for another run up. Let us watch what the market will be doing.

As for trading index warrants, I'm watching key support levels to be tested before attempting a call warrants. Otherwise, I will buy put warrants if we fail at the resistance again. These are the 2 areas safest for entry.

Due to the reaction to the nuclear test, tonight I am using XpertTrader to find out which stocks had declined with very light volume at 70% as compared to last 14 days of trading. Jaya Holding caught my attention. The price has been retracing without volume, i shall monitor for a base to be formed.

I then tried my candlesticks screening and found meiban and inter-roller. I will just watch how they close tomorrow and not trade them.

Position updates:

I still have in my holdings: Cosco, Capland, MR

Remember, do not give up on market just because it's volatile or bearish. The best opportunity is just around the corner.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

The bulls are back!

What a day! Actually yesterday was suppose to be as happening as today. Everyone was caught by surprise of the lukewarm response of Asia's market to US's historical closing. However the 120 points finishing by Dow simply changed the mood. The bulls are back! For the whole day, I have seen constant buying, firm price actions and any pullback is weak. Finally many traders & investors had started to believe STI is not bearish! But i'm afraid they took too long. I have heard many people giving up trading as early as August because they believe market should correct. By now we should all know, market has defied them. It is highly important that we trade the direction where the market wants to go.

I remember during my first class in May'06, market had just crashed, I have told my dear friends not to be discouraged! Market will go back up after the worldcup! I even sent my yahoo group a message in July telling them to stop watching football and time to catch some good stocks! For my critics, please read the May to Sept Archives before jumping on my back again. :P Then again in my strategy class conducted in September'06, I have shown my dear friends the chart of STI telling them there are still time to load up good stocks! I am not telling you all these to boast, rather, I hope to instill in you the confidence that in a bear market, do not give up completely! The leaders will soon emerge when you least expect it to and lead the reversal. Stick with the leaders and you will be amptly rewarded!

My shifu say to go light on this wave up the market. Reason is simple, plenty of people died around this top and one can expect plenty of selling to recover their money. Not only that, i always remember how i tried to ride into new highs and often times see my profits eroded with pull backs and corrections. Hence this time round, I unloaded a couple of my holdings to realise profits. The wiseman always said, "sell on the way up". Paper profits remain paper until I sold.

Position Updates:
Cosco Corp: Still riding For the record, bought at 1.31.

MediaRing: I know the price has been slipping, but i'm still hanging on, will decide again. For me, because I have multiple positions and my portfolio is nett positive. Hence I can still hold if
MediaRing doesn't act funny. Afterall, it's FA is intact.

HSI CW: I bought at 0.635 last week and unloaded today at 0.830. :D Song arh! So far, HSI has given me 3 rounds of solid profits. My strategy is simple, buy at support levels. Anything in between, don't trade! Have patience to wait for pull back. Direction is important here and choosing the right warrants with strike and time to expiry is important as well. This is shared in my strategy class, I hope you guys find it useful. : ) HSI may still continue to move up somemore...but it's only maybe. I remember AC asked me with a gain of 22%, why am i still not cashing out? That time, market moves towards my position and I had to bear the swings emotionally. Now, my plan is to keep milking this index and accumulate my capital. : )

DMX: Bought at 0.665 and cut at 0.655. On a rally day and DMX still can't ignite it's engine, I see no point in getting my funds stuck here and decided to move it somewhere.

UTAC: Bought at 0.715 and sold at 0.735. Tech stocks have obviously fallen out of favour and not in play. I will revisit another time. My job as a trader is make my money work hard for me and not get stuck in a stock.

Celestial: Got this babe when it tested 1.52 support recently. Upside is blocked at 1.55 and 1.63 for now. If China plays are in, this one surely will rock the roof!

Capland: Got the warrants for capland when it is teasing it's all time high.

It is highly risky to be buying right now. Please analyse extensively. For me, I will be waiting for a pull back to strike again. : ) Safer, easier to make money. Remember the all time favourite phrase, "When no one is buying, you buy. When everyone wants to buy, you sell to them"

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Ah Long Chasing Debt

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Market enters the choppy October

STI inches higher towards 2580, the big gap during May. STI at 2514 should offer very good support but 2486 should be a fantastic level to bottom fish...but i will run for my life if things turn sour there. Property again leads my volume screening. Looks like one of these days i will look to add a property counter to my portfolio. SPH's result should be around the corner. By the way, Dow Jones has been acting very nicely as it tries to scale new high. Pull backs along the way as it tried to make history. Our market has been pushing higher whole of last week, please expect pull backs. If the pull back touches major support lines, it maybe good time to load up!

As for Indices, my take is, they will open weak in the morning due to reactions from US market's retracement. The weakness should not extend after lunch. This is my anticipations. HSI key support will be the low it made at 17,277 or 17,300 thereabts. Major support will be found at 17,125.

Whereas for Nikkei, support should be the 16,000 levels. 16,141 is where the first resistance is.

From my XpertTrader screens, here are the interesting observations,

UTAC has broke 50ma support, price should rebound above the 50ma within 3 days, otherwise it will turn from support to resistance. Levels to watch, 0.760, 0.715, 0.705.

SinoEnv, Resistance level to watch 1.12, Support 1.00

SembKim doesn't look simple.

Silverlake, Support at 0.490, 0.470

Synear, 1.04 is the all time high.

I will be the trainer in the upcoming free XpertTrader workshop. I will be presenting key features and then introduce some of the XpertTrader rules that have served me well over the years. So if you are interested to automate your trading analysis as well, feel free to register for the free event.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.