Monday, October 26, 2009

Watching Property sector carefully.

STI went jelly legs but can i complain? At least we went the opposite of the "expected" sell-off after a horrid Dow closing last Friday. Things i like currently is selective plays are still alive. Bluechips though dead and quiet for some time but i can start to feel it coming. So long the supports are holding across most stocks, especially bluechips. This is a bull market to me.

As my title suggest, this is the one sector caught my attention purely on T.A. As we all know, the recent news about the property sector is prices are softening. Today i saw how nice Capland and Citydev moved, i cast my eyes on Hobee and Hongfok. Both stocks came up in my XPertTrader screening. However, i am seeing mixed trading from last week's results and thus this is inconclusive if we are breaking higher. The only consolation i seek is STI is above 2700. It will be interesting if i see the prop sector leads STI convincingly.

I am still holding on to CDL and Hyflux. Nothing uncomfortable abt the stocks yet and i am in no hurry to sell. Perhaps when either one swings into deep profit, i shall offload the underperforming other. Which will allow me to quickly snap up the next opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Look out for the next hot sector

Stubborn 2700 was taken down finally last week. It is highly important to me that we stay above it this coming week. What we are seeing now is that it is coming down to test the previous resistance as support. Faith will be tested. Should investors sell in earnest, then it may bring us below 2700 once again. What i think is we need a strong upward movement motivated by a strong Dow to set us up for an uptrend. Plenty of important results are up next. It seems like companies are continuing to beat estimates. This sets me thinking....

I have one trading idea to share. That is to search for the sector which delivered the most solid result last reporting quater. Their charts may be consolidating now waiting for the next annoucement and we must beat the market to it by discovering it and buy it first. For i notice, before the result is anounced, the share price may have already rallied.

I am still holding on to my CDL and bought Hyflux during last week's weakness. I akin Hyflux's movement to be that of a healthy retracement to test resistance turn support after A-Triangle breakout. CDL though still on an uptrend and from the charts, nothing too bearish as yet. Keeping my fingers crossed that Monday's weakness will not be too large a magnitude. If it is just morning sickness and afternoon glory, perhaps, it is a bullish sign.

The hunt for the next hot sector is on!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

The double top feeling

What do you see in a market when they rally on lighter volume? Especially if they retest the previous high on lesser volume? With major dow components reporting results, this could be a turbulent week. According to the news, market is looking for better revenue and not just better profit margins from reducing expenses. It will be very obvious if i see a candlestick reversal pattern right at this level. It will mimic summer'08. Financial shares seem to be weak and no sign of life as yet. Properties still lacklustre.. they exhibits the rebound with lower volume mostly. With these two sectors resting.. it's no wonder we are still shy of 2700.

If you look at STI's chart, each day we gap up only to close weaker. Is this persistent selling? If we don't stay afloat 20MA, this may be where market test 2520. Otherwise, i will take the next higher low as another cue to add more long positions in this bull market. My CDL finally broke higher. I set my sight at 1.80 and applying a trailing stop incase my double top premonition happens. I am still on a lookout for my second trade. Business travel is taking alot of my time this month and hopefully when the signal comes, i am at a location with wi-fi.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
ChinaEratat
LionAPac

I found the above stocks with good trending traits. But fundamentally, i don't see what could be the catalyst for it to go higher. I read a trading magazine lately and it said 50% depends on market direction, 30% on sector/industry and 20% is picking the stock. Thus, the two stocks above... actually i don't see any reason for them to head higher other than from charts. Though at times, charts are painted by CKs. Thus i prefer to trade stocks with fundamentals which gives me a safety net.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Finally it happens; 50-MA next

Alot of people has been asking where am i... why wasn't the blog updated. I think September summed it up very nicely, boring month! Over the last 2 weeks, did the market really moved? I think not... most of the stocks are like what my friend aptly described, vampire kind of movement.. jumping at the same spot. Thus i adopted a wait and see attitude, quietly observing what the market is trying to do. In between, i found time to travel on business trips and doing some family stuffs. If i have no trading ideas, what is there to share right? Surely we don't want this blog to turn into a travel blog? haha

Like i said in my last update, unless i see my CDL makes money, otherwise i shan't add on. It doesn't make sense to put good money after bad when the obvious was i didn't get the direction right. Though i must admit, certain stocks look to be luring me to put on a second trade. But i was wary of the after-effects of the bearish divergences which was so obvious in alot of charts. Alas, with last week's mayhem in the market, looks like it is the correct choice afterall. Though i didn't make money with that, it gives me confidence. The confidence that i know this game afterall. I found myself feeling more frustrating without a correct market opinion than losing money. This game has taught me that, every loss is a lesson learn and an insurance against bigger loss. However, once my opinion with the market is in-sync, that is where i know the money will start flowing in again. Looking back, although i grumbled about losing back this year's profits to the market, there is something to note here, while i took 2 months to build it up, i lose it over 7 long months. This reminds me of the an advise i read from a book, it goes like this... "In trading the financial markets, it is important to find a strategy that allows you to still make money despite being wrong 70% of the time." It makes sense doesn't it? How easy is it to win all the time? Or even 50% of the time? I hearsay, if you can win 50% of the time, wall street will queue up waiting to hire you. So if it's easier to lose than win in trading, then shouldn't we come out with a method to still make money while being wrong most of the time?

I am now ready to look forward to the next trade. Volatility is expected to pick up in October and i am tempted to adopt the strategy of selling into the rally since i see no reasons to be long in October where everyone is warning of a brutal month and surely this may affect buying sentiments? How about corporate earnings? Some of the good numbers maybe proped up by cutting down headcounts? I remember sales revenue ain't that good in the last report? It's just that, things are not that bad. With a good mix of good and bad econs numbers over last week, is this a hint that the quaterly results will surprise to the downside? I cannot place my bets based on speculating the results... thus i have to rely on charts. As they were just beginning to break support, i am observing if they are gonna stay firmly below it as i do not want to be whipsawed.

I set my sights at 50-day MA for now... it may act as a support. Index are still showing higher lows thus, i won't short for now and rather, i am looking to long. That's why i am still keeping my CDLHTrust - my only long trade. The next thing i am waiting for would be the 4r1g signal. That is my first sign that market is attempting to turn upwards again.

Now if the above didn't materialise, then we would have formed the early stages of a downtrend with the classic lower high and lower low. Usually the component stocks would lead the way in the fall. Thus watch their support levels for clues.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.