Thursday, August 24, 2006

Market Directions

I have checked the market indices and here's what I think:

Nikkei: Support at 15,710, how nice if we can have a candlesticks reversal here.

HangSeng: Daily chart on support, it will be nice if it can do a candlesticks reversal. Otherwise, if close ugly, consider Put Warrents because on the weekly chart of HSI, we have a negative divergence with shooting star and black candle confirmation.

STI: Need we say more??? It will just follow global market..no need to see it's chart la! hahaha Ok ok... we are still struggling at higher end of trading range, downside more than upside. The only plus point i like about it is the shorter term(50) moving average has kissed the longer term moving average(100).

As for individual stocks, I looked at mine holdings only. It is Friday, look at the weekly chart and how your stocks will close and then you will know if next week gonna be bad?

Cosco: Time to becareful as the weekly chart showing possible hanging man if it closes ard 1.60.

MediaRing: As long as 0.340 holds, i'm comfortable.

UTAC: Suddenly tech stocks were not in favour. However, on the weekly chart, still looks healthy to me. I will still stick to my cut loss strategy as posted days earlier.

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DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Possibles or trap?


Celestial


Biosensors


MMI


China Hong

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Newton's law of universal gravitation

Livermore said, "Opinions are often wrong and market is always right". I remembered getting bearish about Hang Seng and was getting ready to buy the put warrants 2 weeks ago, that was my opinion and i didn't act on it until the market shows me it is turning. Last week there was a chance to buy the PW on Hang Seng when the shooting star on Wednesday was confirmed with a black candle on Thursday. I didn't execute my plan. I was careful, as Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and STI were pushing ahead. I remembered, it was easier to win when global markets showed similar signs. So this was a choice of, do I want to take the risk or do I want to wait for a better opportunity. I opt for the latter because from my experience, i know market always present another opportunity, i just have to be patience and wait for the signal to arrive. Trading inbetween often results in unneccessary loss. Nothing wrong here although I missed a great chance to profit. I remember reading this article about Trading Gurus, when their trading account grow bigger, they take lesser risk. My account is still small, I need to grow my capital so I must be careful in my trades and not take huge risk. If professionals are careful with their customer's money, why should I be a Rambo with my own money!

Stock Market showed that it is not spared with Newton's law. What goes up must come down. We had a great run up last week and today market just have to retrace. But the magnitude of retrace is pretty scary. Both my stocks got hit real bad and I had to assess the damage tonight. For a healthy uptrend, there ought to be recovery this week. We should not see another heavy selling day otherwise it will be deja vu May'06... Let us observe what the market is trying to do before we act on it.


Cosco: RSI looks to be trending down and if support breaks, price should also break. Fibbo Retracement levels are in black, last breakout point 1.51 should hold as support.


UTAC: Price retraced to Double Bottom (Green) pinnacle 0.715. A handle could form with low volume, but it should not retrace more than 50% from the pinnacle to the bottom of the double bottom. I will be watching 0.690 closely.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Lessons I won't forget

Tomorrow I'll be having my 5th AGM with my girlfriend! Yea, I ran my relationship like a listed company! haha Each year we will discuss the past year's performance of the relationship at some nice place and then forecast the coming year's expectations and milestones. hahaha So far we had only 2 EGMs in this relationship! I think it's down to those AGMs where we set expectations right. I found out the hard way before, how 2 individuals going into a relationship will result in conflicts and misunderstandings and that this time round I don't want to leave it to chance.

Now in this relationship, I avoided all the past mistakes I made earlier. This is the same as trading. We cannot just keep making the same mistakes over and over again! Both the EGMs were results of me working too hard and neglecting her. The last EGM was a major turning point. There is this lesson i learnt that i will always remind myself of, money is not everything. Then, I was just into trading and was losing my pants off. Morale was low and i was embarrassed by my trading results. Hence I dived into deep research and read whatever T.A books i can lay my hands on, seven days a week. I never gave up for I know I want to do trading for the rest of my life. Throughout this period, i sleep, eat, talk trading to anyone and everyone. One fine day, I won money in the market and was happily updating her when she broke out tearfully in one of those rare moment of madness, "All you care about are money and shares!" The words cut me deep. Here I was facing the woman I love and I had hurt her in the process of creating a wonderful future together...how ironic. Now you guys know why the picture on the left isn't smiling? :D Money lost can be earned back, relationships soured will leave a scar...

I asked myself, so what if I can win lots of money when the one whom I worked so hard for, isn't there to share the joy? What are my values in life? I then found my anwers, I didn't have a mission in life and that trading is all i care. Have you ever stop and ask yourself, other than for the money, why do you want to trade?Without a mission, I have no directions in life except to perfect my trading skills. Now I know perfectly what I want in life and trading is just a mean to get there. Whenever I took a loss or on a series of losses, that is what kept me going. My life is not going to be just about winning in the stock market. I envision the day when I can sit together with my aged folks and wife at my backyard watching my kids playing on the lush green knowing all our financial needs are sufficiently covered and no one can take that away from me.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Traders caught offside!

If Singapore has to have a unique personality to market our identity as a global city, we are kiasu! Nikkei and Hang Seng close at highs. We??? Many traders and investors sold down many stocks towards closing prefering to be wary of how the US market will react to CPI tonight. Very very kiasu!!! Like that how to have global market??? lol :D

Anyhow, on a more serious note, it is never a good idea to see long upper shadows and we have a plenty accross the board! I do hope all those who sold today to feel the regrets and pain as the stocks resume their uptrend!!! hahaha The truth is, many people were caught by the reversal in mood and stuck at the highs. This is also termed as offside in my blog. So if the stock doesn't move back up the levels again, we might have margin calls and contra selling pushing prices down next few days.

I got into UTAC today. Let us view the weekly chart and daily chart to decipher what is going on here.


UTAC on the daily chart: I didn't like the high volume shooting star candle today. Stock has broken downtrend. I bought UTAC at 0.715 after it broke the near term resistance. Things were rosy as it rose steadily to 0.735 and I thought i bought at the exact moment!!! But..it ended with a fart....


UTAC on the weekly chart: Hammer was formed last week and i anticipate a white candle by this friday.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Market showing resilience

I was bearish and getting ready to try put warrants. But! Market doesn't seem ready to head down. Maybe another leg up before corrections set in? Well, whatever it is, i should act what the market is telling me and not what i think it is going to do. I was alerted to media ring late Friday. The volume had surpassed the 50 days MA on my watchlist. I just had to try despite being bearish on market. Here I deviated from my usual Market direction first, Sector, Individual Stock. Market Direction is hanging near resistance still. Sector wise, MediaRing is the only ip telephony company listed together with Global Voice. It makes no sense to consider sector in this case. Individually, MediaRing's chart looks good for a try.


Biosensor


Asymmetrical Triangle with bullish reversal candlestick formation on high volume. I bought at 0.360. Also, I did a Fibbo from 0.275 to 0.44, the recent rally and found that the stock is well supported at 61.8% (0.340)

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Watch out For Offside Traps

This certainly is not bullish time to catch new highs. All the conditions to me are not perfect. I will never forget how easy it was for me to buy at the right time when everyone is making money. So far i'm glad that I have been avoiding making the same mistakes. This is still as important to me as 1 year ago when I started this website. Cut loss is a very important self defense in trading. However it is equally important to know when to trade! If you are off in your timing, you will have to cut loss often. Imagine having the discipline to cut loss but you are cutting more often than you win? Yes this is what happened to me in 2004/2005. Soon after while studying my losing trades, i spotted a pattern. The timing of the purchase was all wrong! All the books and gurus always said, you do not have to trade everyday. It is not how many times you win or lose in the market. It is how much you lose when you are wrong and how much you win when you are correct!!! That's it! Bingo! The key is how much are you winning when you are right about a stock? I look at my big runners, is it a coincidence that they run in bullish rally? So when the market isn't bullish, do you think they will fly? High chance...No! As an employee, i cannot afford the time to monitor for small gains. I need to trade in such a way that i have to catch big runners, leaders! With money management thrown in, it simply made it impossible to profit from 2 cents movement kind of trades. Hence it's important to know your risk profile too.

With HSI trading off it's all time high, Nikkei looking hesistant, Dow Jones failed to clear resistance and STI being flat to downwards biased, it may be time to turn bearish short term. Afterall what goes up must come down. It's good to pull back for a healthy rally. Now that my anticipation of the market is coming true, where we are down today as i wrote down on 7th Aug 2006, it has become a case of market showing me where it is heading. It's time for me to take actions. I will be looking at Put warrants for the next 2 weeks. Please scroll down to read my article abt trading warrants if you are interested.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Market awaits big Ben's speech

National Day is drawing near and we did not have a very joyous reason to celebrate NDP as yet. Market as been hesistant in rallying. Market will be closed on Wednesday and we will not enjoy any reaction to Ben's speech happening on our Tuesday night. Initially I thought of anticipating Ben's speech by buying index warrants. But a worse case scenario puts me off. It goes like this..... Tuesday night, Ben says he is not increasing rate hike and or he increase but say it's the last, market like it and spark off a great regional rally all around on Wednesday but us!! Yes! Because we are closed. On Thursday profit taking sets in and regional indices retraces in tantem and STI follows suit!! Remember while other index are having a field day, SGX was closed...hence it's not worth the risk for me.

I shall buy when I see reversal pattern on some of the stocks i have been tracking. I always try my best not to preempt the market by my gut feel. Let the reversal pattern occurs and I shall buy at the "right" time! I saw chinasun and sino retraces with relatively lighter volume...and if i had not been discipline enough, I will be holding at a high! Rather, I would like to see strength and buy signal before going ahead. August will be a tough month to crack.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Break the float, sink the ship

Tonight's title is a direct translation from a chinese proverb, "puo fu chen zhou". In English, it should have been burning your bridges. This will leave you with no choice but to move ahead in search of opportunities because you cannot fall back anymore. Why am I talking about this? Recently, I have been thinking alot, what am I doing, what do i want in life? Part time career? Part time trading? Can one really balance and be the best in 2 fields? I myself had felt that one should focus on what he does and be the best in it. Why am I not doing the same? I still remember end of May when I conducted my maiden trading talk to a group. I was very nervous and negative thoughts about lousy delivery keep flashing accross my mind as the moment draws nearer and nearer. With 5 minutes to go, i began to psyche myself up. I keep telling myself, if I am going to screw up, screw up big time! If I humiliated myself that night, at least I know I have tried. As the presentation went on, I began to slip into the "Decipher" of this blog explaining all the strategies, like a possessed man, I explained TA with passion and fire! When I finally finished, boy am I glad to have delivered value to the group of 27. It was especially satisfying when I shook their hands gladfully for the chance to be standing up there. It was the same feeling when I profit from a trade. A very satisfying feeling which spelt "I did it!" inside my head. This feeling was just awesome!

Now, I never remembered feeling so good about myself so far in my career. Though there were happy times when you were commended but the intensity of pleasure was nothing closed to the vincinity of trading. Even monetary rewards depend on how the company is doing and not what you have done. How about pay freeze? Do you still remember Increments that are smaller than brokerage fees? Bonus that is only equivalent to 1 week's pay? Is this what you really want in life? Working very hard and yet know that the pay cheque you are going to receive is exactly the same as last month? Or worse when you know how much you can earn this year because it's 13 months times your monthly pay only? If you work hard in your employment versus your trading, which one is going to pay you more? What would you do if at 45 and you are not wanted in your profession because you are old? Are you going to drag on in life until you have too much liabilities to dare move on to do what you really believed in? It's time to reassess priorities... puo fu chen zhou... Doing 2 things at a time is very torturing. It's either i am going to stop trading and give my career a shot and see how much i can earn or I am going to quit my job and get into the trading industry. I want to be as successful as I can be by the time I reach 30!


SinoEnv

ChinaSun in Focus

Breakout of Triangle with volume was actually a good thing, however today's high volume closed near day's low instead. Something that does not happen in a strong breakout. I had gone in at 0.905 after 0.895 stubborn resistant taken out. Why is the breakout not successful? I studied the conditions of the market. Hang Seng and Nikkei closing weak. Europe market trading largely lower at open. These are the sets of conditions at the point of my purchase. There were no strength accross the board. As tomorrow is Friday, my game plan is simple. If it closes lower than today, I shall take my loss tomorrow. The logic is simple, a sound breakout will not end in just 2 days.


Fibbo Retracement from the rally beginning 0.740 to 0.915.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Market Anticipation

I am back!!! Gosh..before i left, i was hoping market consolidate on tues and wed then just nice rally on thurs to welcome me back...now it has done the opposite!!! :D

Refering to my anticipation on 17th July 2006. Our market is really going to take out 2450. I could see a higher low and higher high going to form. How nice! :D But!! It remains to be seen. Global indices have once again marching up high..Especially Hang Seng. But then again, this incline has been healthy with profit taking along the way, so I should not be surprise if the march up continues. If the march up continues, what should I do? What are the warning signs? Time to refresh my memory on past heartaches.

Jtech and Sino-env are showing signs of pulling back on weakness after breakout. Should I "masuk" now? Then there is the sudden strength in commodities stocks, Noble & Olam. I am late in this group!!!! Damn! But what to do, got to work. One day....just one day, I am going to walk out of my employment! As for ship repair sector, brilliant! Cosco behaves nicely just like it's group. This is what i learn from Livermore. He said to look at industry and sister stock. While i'm not sure if Cosco is a female or a male, one thing's for sure, it's ship repair arm is making money, just like Labroy Marine and Semb Marine. For now, the stock price of this group keep going north with Cosco and Semb Mar at all time high...Labroy will catch up soon. Now i'm waiting for one of these 3 stocks to show negative movements, this to me is a warning sign to heed.

As for tomorrow, it's gonna be Friday day after and a holiday next week. I will be watching index warrants instead.