Monday, March 31, 2008

Funds undressing?

Last week's strong rally caught everyone by surprise. Like everyone else, i hunt around for answer and this is one i like best. Funds dressing up for the quater. This sounds an alarm bell inside my head, because if they dress up, they will have to undress. I will be looking to trade from the short side unless we break 3k convincingly.

At the CTA graduates gathering last Friday, we saw how STI along with many shares are trading near resistance and hence we should avoid buying and look to short. Today's STI closing comes with a sell signal. Let's see if tonight US finish near 12k. I have a list of at least 8 stocks on my deathlist. For XPertTrader subscribers, the rule to screen will be M.A as support or resistance & 4g1r.


Screening with XPertTrader:

Milk turned sour? I like the M.A as resistance, but the volume... haiz... if only high high big big volume plus candlestick reversal pattern will be nice :D


From a potential double bottom, this has now turn bearish and looks pretty much like a D-tri.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Bears Gored by the Bulls!


This picture was taken during my honeymoon in Berns.... never had the chance to post it up .... finally today's actions justify this post! hahaha


The day began with a bang. This is expected because DJ had a strong finishing last week. I was looking for a whitecandle finishing in the local bourse but we have none. The confirming candle was in DJ's chart. As the day worn on, it is not difficult to detect the persistent buying strength. Alas, we closed strongly! Notably the banks! What gains! Honestly, i am very tempted to initiate a short position. But i knew this is not the way to trade a market. The market moves in a non-random way and i already have a set of tools to decipher it. Hence I should be patience and wait for the signal to short instead of trading because I "feel" or i "think". Now this is certainly suicidal and we shall call this trading by emotions.

As most of you already knew, I was contributing technical analysis article to SmartInvestor magazine in 2007. From April'08 onwards, I will not do that anymore. Instead, i will be contributing market outlook to the magazine! :D It's kinda challenging because i have to study the market inside out inorder to get the charts to start talking to me. But nevertheless, it's a challenge i enjoy! Ta bi, i don't like the way i have to write in cambridge style english... it's tough. Blogging is so much easier! haha can use singlish, use hokkien. wahahaha I remember when i started in 2006, due to my bad english, i often joked at the seminars, " i don't care if my english is bad, so long you can understand what i am saying!" :D

By the way, in 2007, ChartNexus flagship course was only available in Singapore. Now, we are in 3 countries! Just like phua chu kang, Best in Singapore and some say KL and Jakarta! wahahaha I can't change the way people use computers because Steve Job already done it. I can't change the way people use internet because Google is already leading. What i aspire to do will be to influence and change the way people trade. By influencing, we will be looking to build an academy focussing on technical analysis. By changing, we will be looking to improve chartnexus platform to simplicity yet powerful. huat arh!



The money flow index already showing a positive divergence and with Jan's low nearby, I reckon the probability of a rebound is high this time. If anything, this is where bottom fishing make sense. To the trained investor, this is how we look for rebound to long. For the untrained investor, so long the price is lower than the day before, it is cheap and can buy and most of the time it will get lower. This is why i say there are techniques to decipher the market and trade accordingly. The best part? It is not difficult to learn! But you must have preserverance and lots of practice! Join us at SGX auditorium to learn more about technical analysis for only $20!



Ferrochina was picked up by my XPertTrader screening. There is bullish divergence in the indicators and a potential double bottom is in the making. There are rules to determine when is a bottom formed, hence i will not jump the gun. Livermore once said this, "The price i pay doesn't matter, it must go up after i buy."

At the next ChartNexus Stock Selection seminar, Hendrick will be showing the different ways how we can screen the stock market for the 3 directions namely, uptrend, downtrend and sideways. Inaddition, we will also be looking forward to learning how to trade Wilmar going forward. This is the link to register for your FREE seat. http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1388

Alright, that's all for tonight. Going forward, i will be looking out for heavy dumping near resistance. Once i see this, i will initiate short position.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Wishing for a candlestick reversal pattern

Tomorrow is the last chance to take up position! My eyes will be the closing candle on STI's weekly chart. Remember on Sunday night i posted, this week's closing is more important than the intra-week swing? Well indeed the market looks supported. Most of the stocks look damn oversold and we should head higher. But it also doesn't stop the market from falling further before the rebound takes place. Given that today we were not able to close higher than opening means that the market are fearful of last week's repeat where market tanked after the big rally. This is actually good because it means there is little confidence left. Market will not anyhow rally like a mad bull. We all should know by now, a mad rally doesn't last. Rather, we might have very good and defined technical levels to trade.

Let us see if the inverted hammer on index charts will come with candlestick confirmation.

Results from tonight's XPertTrader Screening:


Asia Env: Surprisingly strong in a weak market


Range Trade for Comfort?


Palm oil related stocks staged a comeback late in the day. Was it shortists covering? Anyway, bullish harami formed.


Tempted to short this fella. Based on M.A, today's closing is bearish. Support should be Mar's Low.




DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Singtel in a trading range


Singtel in a ding dong ding dong ding dong...

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Cosco T-rebound on the cards?

2 more trading days to close the weekly candle and i will be looking at possible Candlestick reversal pattern to give us the rebound that the market sorely missed!

Lehman and goldman restore confidence in the financial sector after the bear scare. With Ben looks set to cut the interest rate, short-term rebound may be on the cards.


Screened with XPertTrader, Cosco Corp has a chance to rebound after touching pessimism levels.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

A peek into the weekly charts

Bear Stearns gave market a poisonous shot. This investment firm was the first to admit the subprime issues they were facing and last week, they scored another first....They seek rescue plan. My food nearly spilled out from my mouth when Dow dropped over 300 points from up 50.(I was watching US market live that night). Monday's opening is expected to be weak. However it is how the week finish that will be interesting as I see Dow and STI at critical support. I'm sure i am not the only one who is watching this level. Hence it makes it very interesting going forward. If we break this level, you can be sure of the selling strength! Obviously if this level is protected by "invisible hands", it may be a good time to load up to play the rebound? I still favours rectangle trading as described last week.



STI: Index closed slightly below the long term uptrend line. This is the lower end of the range, and with Friday's closing, we had a homing pigeon pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern and support will be taken at the lowest of the pattern for now. Given the weak closing of Dow on Friday, this pattern looks set to fail. But as mentioned above, STI's weekly chart finished last week with an inverted hammer. Anticipation will be for the week to close higher than previous week. With Ben speaking on 18th, we do have a chance.



Dow: Trading near the trendline support and the weekly chart closed with an inverted hammer as well. Major support may be at 11,300, which means to say, there is more room to fall for Dow. Money Flow index looks to be oversold, this index is particularly sensitive to the extreme in the range. It will be useful to follow the flow of money!



For those of us who are interested to pick up technical analysis and use it as a weapon in the stock market, do join us at our courses. We are one of the most affordable around and have often been invited to speak at our partners' events. At ChartNexus, we do not make empty promise of quick money, indeed, money won't fall from the sky so easily. Otherwise everyone don't have to work anymore. Rather, we equip you with the tool and the knowledge for you to avoid risk and seize the opportunities. For more information, please visit http://www.chartnexus.com/

Remember, money can be made from the financial market and you only need the know how!

Stock Screening from XPertTrader:
Stocks with high volume.

No. Stock Name Triggerred Date Triggerred Rules
1 CDL HTrust 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
2 Cosco Corp 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
3 CSE Global 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
4 FIRST RESOURCES LIMITED 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
5 KS Energy 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
6 M1 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
7 MACARTHURCOOK INDUSTRIAL REIT 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
8 ManOri US$ 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
9 MMP Reit 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
10 Olam 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
11 PFood 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
12 SPH 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
13 ST Engg 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
14 TAC 200US$ 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
15 Unisteel 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))


Sell Signal Triggered for Parkway

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Technical Rebound or Reversal?

Overnight closing of Dow in negative once again dragged down the morning session. But cool enough, market rallied in the afternoon session and close amazingly in the green suggesting something could be cooking in Dow tonight. True enough, Dow is now up 200 points plus. Honestly speaking, i too was tempted to long some stocks as i could see many candlestick reversal patterns around. Notably in some of the China shares i'm tracking. However i held back. I prefered not to guess a reversal or bottom and just let the price tells me where is it heading. A break above 20 day moving average will be a good sign. Infact there are still a couple of stocks trading above 20dma and some are even on an uptrend. I secretly load up on one last week and despite the plunge, it was unscathed! keke, if all goes well, i will share this stock at my upcoming CTA Graduates Gathering .

It's been more than 1 year since I became the chief trainer and to date, over 1000 graduated from my course. The gathering will serve as a refresher to the techniques taught in the course. It's about time this is done so that they don't lose the momentum and faith. For graduates, a private email will be sent. Look out for it. : )

STI Jan's low held like a rock. Market knew that is the level many are eyeing as crucial. If we breaks that, get ready for another round of hardcore selling. Meanwhile on the weekly chart, we may see a bullish piercing pattern in the making by Friday.

Let me update the HSI chart tomorrow. Currently Dow looks very stable and resilient. However, i do not like the way it's stuck at this level and not making any progress. After sometime, the bulls will get tired and the you-know-who may attack the market again.

Interesting stocks that I'm watching:
CAO, Noble

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Formation failures

The warnings are written all over the walls. When i was flipping through charts, plenty of weak charts are warning us to stay clear. Last week, my eyes were on the development of the chart formations on the index charts. The result? Bullish formations failed and the one bearish on KLCI and Nikkei broke down successfully. This coincide with the shocking election results over the weekend. Smart money run away ahead? It's easy to say let us short the market. The timing of positioning our shorts is also important since the CFD facility doesn't offer rollover and we only have 30 days to be right abt our shorts to maximise the gains. A trader is like a boxer. We must fight with both hands. If you do not learn the art of shorting, you are like a boxer who fights with only one hand. Shorting isn't really that difficult. If you are interested, do join one of the ChartNexus seminar and ask question. At our seminars, they are not previews. Our trainers share their experience and offer advices on the current market and how they will trade it.

As for Singapore, Mas Salamat "bourne identity" act was really a classic. Escape when going to the loo, how many times have we watched this in the movies. So far no impact on the stock market. We were under continuos pressure and influence from US. While market ignored all the bad news last month, it surely didn't take too lightly of the slowing economy concerns last week. Earning season just concluded and we saw how the market took it. Also there was a bradley turn date on 8th March. True enough the market reacted!!! Is this self fulfilled prophecy or really this law of the universe ought to be studied in more details?

For the coming week, it's too late to short sell for me as we are already in the extended downward movement. The best opportunity to short is when we are near resistance. The chance was already missed like i said in last week's post. Inorder to enjoy highest probability, i will wait for the rebound rally and re-position to short. Meanwhile i will post any charts that look interesting. This will be good for learning. I will try my best to share my knowledge for those keen to learn.



Formation failure bodes ill fate for the index. For best case scenario, we can look at a rectangle trading range should the low of Jan holds. After which we can do projection using the height of this rectangle.


Nikkei broke out of the rising wedge successfully. This is a continuation pattern for the downtrend.



Dow has the same formation failure like STI. Rectangle trade? I say we watch out for divergence in the indicators.



Reversal pattern broke out strongly.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Bad news ignored

The market has been ignoring all the bad news and absorbing them very well with the index keep heading higher. It baffled me and i was so tempted to turn long because as a rule of thumb, if the market doesn't go down with bad news, it means it will turn up. But looking at the market, i notice many rallies had no decent follow through and hence held back. I told myself, if market really is turning up, the next sell-off will be well absorbed and we move higher. The price actions thus far has not been that of a typical bull market. The profits from Chartered becomes very precious because i had to cut loss on Allgreen when it threatens to break 1.30... so it became eat pig pay dog. The most boring part is.... there was a sell signal on 20th Feb in the market (4g1r on STI) and according to the system, 21st Feb i should look to short sell. But due to my busy work schedule i had to give it a miss. Nevermind though... market is always there!
By the way, my method is FREELY available. However for best result, it is best that you combine with other analysis like classical analysis, indicators...etc... my method can be found at
http://www.chartnexus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=425


DJ: although a brutal sell off happened on Friday due to AIG and UBS more than expected loss. Is this a surprise to the market? I do not think so. All along, it is plain obvious this is the sector to short and anything out from them is expected to be bad. So why the sell-off? I think it is just an excuse to take profit. Either this, or the last rally was actually a chance for smartmoney to get the hell out! But since it closed just nice at the triangle support. I shall observe the rebound. Either we have a Triangle pattern failure or we have a upwards breakout of the A-triangle.




Monday at open, i shall observe the selling... because to me, if market dips below 3000 and able to bounce back, it would have been supported at the triangle trend support.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.