Sunday, December 23, 2007

Merry Christmas!

Gosh! Time really flies and this is the 3rd Christmas greeting coming from GrowMoney Author. : ) Journey thus far has been very fulfilling and i have so much fond memories but as per usual, i will leave the reflection on my trading career on the last day of the year. haha

24th will see our minimum bid size changed. I wonder how this will affect the index movement... Friday was a good good day... regionally most index charts finished with a hammer pattern. It will be wonderful if we can close a white candle on the weekly for the coming week. After the clean clean flush on Monday, we never looked back and the rebound was completed by Friday. S shares roamed the top volume charts. This reminded me of the QDII fund...some say it will start in Jan...

My game plan going forward is still to track HSI, plus my system has picked up a stock few stocks.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
IndoAgri
Noble

I will be looking out for a quiet 24th and market to trade flat.. that to me will be an excellent chance to load light into the holidays. With so many writedowns by the banks and the government with foreign investors happy to provide liquidity to the credit crunch, the market may not die yet. Especially when bad news after bad news keep coming into the market and Dow Jones stood firm.. I like that.

Finally, Merry Christmas to all! and May all of us have a Bountiful Year End rally!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, December 17, 2007

STI dips under 200MA

"The bulls have their fun above the 200Ma and the bears have theirs under it" This is a popular notion at Wall Street. STI today officially trades under the 200MA. Going forward, it may retest the 200MA line, and if we are unable to trade and close above it. Better have a CFD account on hand and let us start to use 4G1R system to profit from the downside. As mentioned, this trend trading system picked up short sell signals last Wednesday night infrom of 180 participants at SGX... not exactly a beautiful sight but at least it reminded us that we can profit from the downside too. If you are interested, you may want to join me and the rest of the ChartNexus team at Capital Tower to find out what exactly happened on 12th Dec 2007... what 4G1R are we talking about... full details are at www.chartnexus.com/events

I went long HSI on Friday. HSI closed on my trendline support and I reckoned it was a pretty opportunity. Yeah, you can imagine my disgust when HSI tanks 1000 points by lunch! haha It is never easy to take a loss. Before you hit the sell button, u will have hallucination of a rebound when you sell... you will feel the pain when you realise your loss.... haha well well, i knew it only too well... all these are nonsenical reasons to hang on when I am wrong. Promptly I cut the position. I had a plan which entails what I wanted to do when things go wrong when i put up the position. If I am right about the trade, HSI should have rebounded back into 28000s.... for it to break the support means more selling may come and the next support i'm eyeing is at 25,800s thereabts. Why should I ride my losses down to 25,800s? Should I then hang on to the losing position and hope for a rebound? Well guess what? Even if there may be a rebound, HSI may head lower first and then rebound...rebound to where i could have sold... so in the end, it's LPPL. Wrong means wrong, cut my position and re-analyse.

It's interesting... very intresting... with the astrology date coming soon and we are heading down... coincidently, next week is last trading week of the year.... why does it sound like a plot?? We go down first until the bradley turn date and then trade higher due to window dressing??? hahaha

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Major support levels tested again

At the seminar last night, we screened the market for signals.... 49 vs 1..... that is 49 sell signals vs 1 buy signal... so i was not surprised when market didn't head up today... but certainly i didn't expect it to be so bad!!! Nikkei started the rout during our lunch time. So when we came back from lunch, it was point of no return.

It was no surprise when the market came crashing down today. Last 2 weeks saw limited buy signals and what we got were sell signals. Most major indices were ripe for a pull back. Ironically, this sharp pull back maybe better than dying a slow death. It will flush out plenty of stale holders giving us fresh buyers when the bullish time returns. I still don't like the loose price actions in most stocks. A bull market doesn't react this way. Furthermore, it was very obvious that most of the stocks encountered heavy dumping on the way up. ChinaFish was one such example, i was tempted to buy at 1.83, but i didn't find the volume convincing and my opinion was the indices may pull back first. However Fish then went on to new high at 2.00 leaving me breathless and frustrated. If not for my colleagues beside me, only by using vulgarities would i be appeased. hahaha! Joking la, been in the market for quite sometime... situations like this already internalised. I make use of this incident to form yet another opinion. Because Fish was sold down to close at the low instead of the high, I knew a bullish market doesn't behave like this.

Now what? After this sharp pull back, I would be looking to see support levels holding... mixed market. Going up? I think the incentive to head up is still missing. 22 Dec 2007, Bradley turn date... going by astrology analysis, market major turning date.... let us watch how we trade before that date... 22nd.. hmm... next Saturday.. nan dao next week take position???

Another thing I want to share is the importance of managing our risk. If i had not taken my profits off the table quicker in this uncertain market, i would have been badly exposed. I think this is not the time to use trend trading system. Preferably swing trading.

Neither did I go short the market. This is because, with year end coming, there could be window dressing. Maybe after the dressing then short? Furthermore, this pull back is what i have been anticipating. Now my opinion is:

a) STI supported at gap. 3442 to 3397 thereabouts. If this level holds, i will tikam small. Basis? Higher low.....

b) DJ support at 13,200s level hold... then i shall long some call options.

c) My favourite Hang Seng... 27,400s should hold.

If you are one of the participant at this weekend's ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course, be assured that we will be sharing alot about price movement. So that you will know how to protect your positions or even make your own forecast! Remember, MAKE GOOD USE of the 2 full days to ask those burning questions!!!

For XPertTrader users, good news! Joseph has kick started the hand-holding session finally! This comes after the big demand from you. So those who are really keen to make good use of your investment in XPertTrader, remember to register your seat at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1126

US Economy numbers coming up!
Dec. 14
CPI
Industrial Production

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, December 10, 2007

SPH near 2 year high

Another bank fell under the subprime gong tao... This time round Temasek got vested. I saw Dr Tony Tan sitting at the press conference...it got me excited for a while because I thought SPH was the one whom injected the funds...keke needless to say as a die hard fan of SPH, it will be good news... but alas.. not to be. Speaking of SPH, it is now trading near it's 2 year high!!! $5 ? Akan datang. If Livermore is alive, he will be looking at this for sure. I shall look for CWs in anticipation keke... this is what I call pivotal point. Break, long, gostan we can go short. Definitely worth investigation.

Using XPertTrader to screen, there are still no buy signals and at least 48 sell signals. This is where market condition takes precedence. We are now waiting for FOMC meeting and that leaves little incentive for market to move up. Tomorrow will offer great opportunity! I be watching Nikkei and HSI's closing to get into position. It has shown in the past, market seems to know the news even before it happens.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Pull backs


China central bank raises bank reserve ratio by 1 percentage point - UPDATE
December 08, 2007: 04:39 AM EST

Now I know why the sudden dip in HSI on Friday. As usual, price always move before news. This is so classic. On the chart, HSI failed right at resistance. After the holidays I am looking for trades. This should be my own greed and gambling addiction. I feel so uncomfortable not having any vested interest in the market. I looked at stocks, but to me it seems like not a good time to get vested in stocks as of now. I screened and my system yielded no stocks. Remembering what Jesse Livermore said, "There is a time to buy, a time to sell and also a time to stand aside." By focussing on HSI, I want to be able to form an opinion on it's direction to trade. HSI should be supported at 27,500 thereabts. Even Dow Jones look rip for a pull back first. Same for STI. Recalling what I read about astrology analysis, 22nd Dec has a major turn date. It will be useful to track the movement up to that date. So long we don't pull to a lower low, i'm still optimistic.

Over at Singapore side, there are a couple of stocks look to be forming the classic short term price pattern. Monday should be another mixed day since Tuesday is the FOMC meeting.

By the way, I will be speaking at SGX Auditorium on Wednesday titled Trading Strategies Explained. This short seminar will introduce my style of interpreting MacD Histogram and find entries from uptrending stock or short sell in downtrending stock. What's more, we can use XPertTrader to automatically screen for the signals effortlessly. Saving precious evening time.
DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Mixed day

I cut my synear and lost brokerage today when it reverses all the way to my buy price with volume more than I would like to see. The big gap up in the morning didn't sustain and it fell back with heavy selling. This stock is bought in tantem to the rotational interest i detected for quickie and hence it is off the low and far from support. I feel safer to get out and relook. Especially I am still waiting for market to show me the direction then only would i take sensible risk.

Using my sentiment scan, actually we had a mixed day rather than a bad day despite some heavy profit taking going on as i can see there are stocks which hold their ground and their gains. However since STI has been up the last few sessions, maybe time is ripe for a pull back. I will observe how is the selling on the pull back... this should differentiate between healthy retracement versus bear reversal

For HSI, my eyes will be at the 29,600 to 29,200 levels, it is crucial to see how it trades there.

At the economic front, more bad news than good. The only reason propping up the market could be rate cut as Bank of England already cut rate. Hence after next Tuesday? If it's factored in, then......

Also on my 4g1r trading system, Semb Marine & UOB has a sell signal caught my eyes.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Convincing rally alas

I was told today's rally was the most convincing with volume and strong buying over the last 2 weeks. With 2 trading days left in the week, I will be observing the following:



a) No heavy dumping at the top

b) We see follow through buying

c) Normal retracement due to profit taking



I picked up Synear in a nick of time when the China shares were in play. Nikkei's after lunch U-turn made lunch hour very exciting and when SSE was up 2%, our market rallied after lunch. This despite a report saying funds are pulling out from local bourse in the morning and we reacted negatively to it. However we soon recovered by lunch time.



Looking at my portfolio, i had kept Jiutian & Chinawheel before I head for holidays. My strategy for these 2 stocks is to hold



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Strategies on Banking sector

MAS said profitability of local banks will be affected by subprime issues. My opinion is, if market is to go anywhere, banks should show the way? If they are resilient and head upwards, i think it will be safe to tikam on the upside slowly at first to reduce risk and add on when proven right. Otherwise if they fail at support turns resistance, put warrants will be handy. Here are few strategies on warrants i have devised.

1. Buy very OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose little if stock trades upwards. The trick is, when a stock is moving down, it will be faster than going up.
2. Buy slightly OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose time value if underlying trades sideway.
3. Buy OTM PW with less than 30 days to expiry - will lose premium if underlying goes up

Notice I focus on the risk first instead of thinking abt the rewards? Alexander Elder said, "If you take care of your losses, your profits will take care of themselves"

I uploaded a cartoon made for my wedding night for your viewing pleasure incase you are bored with the intra day market.. keke

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, December 03, 2007

Firstly...identify market direction

In all my seminars, courses and even the newspaper interview done this year, i always stressed the need to first determine the market direction. The NUMBER 1 reason for most who lost money in the stock market is we don't know where the market is heading. This was why i failed in my early days. Think about it, if the market direction is heading up, shouldn't majority of the shares be heading up? If the market direction is coming down, didn't most of the stocks keep coming down? Hence I believe inorder to avoid unneccessary losses in the market, one should first form an opinion on the general market direction instead of focussing which stock to trade.


After standing aside the market for 30 days exactly to prepare for my wedding cum honeymoon, i lost the feel for market. This is the first time I have taken such a long leave from trading ever since I started persuing this life skills years ago. It was tough in the beginning as I fell sick due to trading withdrawal syndrome and this was 1 week before my wedding actual day. Forcefully I took my eyes off any financial news...it feels just like quiting smoking where temptations linger everywhere. I treat this as a test of my discipline. Psychologically I won. Really, learning trading has changed me so much as a person. Sometimes my ex-gf and even my sister complained that I am cold blooded and function like a robot. I don't know if you feel the same? For example, I no longer get into senseless argument where one must win for no good reason. I also don't convince people to do things my way for I understand this is how the universe works. Everyone is unique and does things differently. This is also how the stock market functions. There is no way 100% of the market participants will arrive on one single opinion collectively. That is why I often nodded or smile even if i don't agree with what I heard. I mean there is no need to impress upon others my opinion. It's just like we shouldn't argue with market direction! This bring us to the next point, I learnt to take failure in my stride and admitting to making any mistake. In life how many of us really likes to admit to mistakes? Most of the time, we will find circumstances as an excuse. That is why cutting loss when wrong is most difficult for most. And finally, my all time famous quote i read somewhere... "people tends to act out the way they are in the market and this is often leads to disasterous results"



Perhaps I haven't talked to myself for too long... gosh really long winded tonight! haha 1 more thought to share, technical analysis is indeed a life skills just like cycling and swimming... despite being away for sometime, the where to start, what to do just flow automatically when i analysed the charts. By the way, during the trip to Italy, i met Leonardo Da Vinci (Statue) and learnt alot about this man... hence I probably enhanced my fibonacci skills... wahahaha


With 2 seminars coming up, I need to get back my tempo and without saying of course market direction comes first! I won't be too anxious to hook up any stock position as yet. It's my style to always form an opinion then trade it.

My next stint is scheduled on 12th Dec.... titled trading strategies...interested party... u know where to register ...... www.chartnexus.com/events







DJ: I be watching for 2 situations:

a) We form a higher low and then breaks the red line.

b) We breaks the support where it is shown by the 2 arrows.



HSI: I am looking for the blue line to be supportive or the gap up.





DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.