Sunday, May 31, 2009

Financials to lead next wave?

On the last trading day of the week, finally i see some glimpse of hope from the financial sector. If market is to move in a rotation fashion, then surely it will be their turn to rock the market while properties take a rest? The powerful rally of the property sector reminded me of 2005 where Mr Mah announce a bullish news for the developer... something like they make it easier to buy private properties... then all hell breaks lose for the property sector. Perhaps some news is leaking out already? Anyway, since i don't belong to the privileged, i need to work harder.

Currently, the divergence on Dow is very pronounced. As such, i am not adding positions as yet. The last time i ignored a divergence, orh bak kak... keke those sudden crash type of market... the pain still lingers inside me... the fear is almost bone crushing.. 8.6k is where i set my sights on...

After doing my random walk in the stock market through XPertTrader, generally i have 2 feels. Firstly, there are strong closing on some index stocks, especially those properties... then i saw many ugly closing with long upper shadows that comes with high volume... this is an unwelcome sight. It smells of bear. To me, financials and offshore should lead the next wave. Otherwise, i am turning cautious.

I believe if Nikkei ignores North Korea again, HSI plays catchup then we will have a wonderful rally tomorrow. Otherwise that stupid curly hair kwai lan kia may spoil this party.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Interest rotated back in Properties sector

The sign i was waiting for has appeared. That is the breaking of previous high in the property sector. It doesn't matter whether isit the banks or the props or the offshore. One of them ought to lead. Now that the props have moved, I set my sights on the below:

a. They must continue to go up, or at least no candlestick weakness. I view it extremely bearish if this breakout come back down on heavy volume.
b. Banks, offshore to be the next. Tech sector? I wouldn't bet on them as yet.
c. Offshore services like swiber, federal, swissco...etc.. should also be on the watchlist.
d. Commodities, i think put one side first..
e. My friend reminded me that the settlement for index May futures is coming up...hence index may be volatile.. acid test is what happens after that.


Super test my patience... it is trading nicely along the 20-dma.. When will it's turn come? Semb Mar, YZJ, Kepcorp still running... Unless, cancellation of contracts again??? Or major shareholder selling? But like Genting, if want to sell, should be selling above 1.40 ma, bo li you sell at 1.20???


Singtel: Though slow, but may see $3 soon?


SGX: Doesn't it look just like Cosco? Maybe banks and financials to power STI towards 2400? :P


Genting: Stock market never changed because human never change. - quoted by my ang mo teacher. This kind of scenario happened like so many many many times in my young career as a trader. Say young also not very young...anymore.. now i beginning to see younger faces at seminars... haha i used to be the youngest.. not anymore. :D But if insiders want to sell, surely they will sell at high high price and thus, the share price ought to go higher first. How can they do this? Read the book by Livermore... he was approached to do this for a professional fee... How dirty this market is.... this is a warning for those who are new to the stock market.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Offshore laggards

Nothing to shout about at Friday's closing. Especially how Dow gave way in the final hour. On the hourly chart, i can see lower high already formed. However i may discount that because it's a public holiday on Monday for US market and thus not trading. Hence traders may opt to square off positions to enjoy the long weekend.

If you look at Cosco, SembMar and Yang Zhi Jiang, you can't help wonder why is this sector not moving? KepCorp already moved off May's low but not the laggards. Either these 3 stocks will be the darling of the market in upcoming sessions or this sector may not be the best for me to get vested.

Other sectors like banking and props seems to be consolidating. It may still be early days to latch onto these sectors.

I will turn cautious and wary of further corrections if stocks test and fail at the previous high in this coming week. I have observed last week that the market seems to be drifting higher and then got sold down quickly. The only positive i take away from it is, there is resiliency in this market... aka refuse to die.

Elder puts it very well, a market can fall on its own weight. Let us see how the market trades on Monday.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Watching those highs

The retracement i was looking for appeared and it was in the strongest of fashion. Most of the stocks are rebounding off their 38.2% Fibo level. I learnt that this level is most useful in very strong price movement. Bingo! 3 weeks ago the rally is considered strong.... with that 38.2% supported... hence it may suggest that this rally can continue.

My plan was to sapu stock at the retracement and watch if we breaks previous high as an indication of strength. I checked around, there are many stocks breaking their previous highs. Something that is positive in my opinion. Next to observe would be if there are bearish divergences around. There are still many stocks which i can go long technically. But i always prefered to trade high liquidity stock. Like UOB-KayHian has a buy signal, but due to the low volume, i will still give it a miss. Following sectors is one big advantage i learnt along the years. To make big or small money depends on the position sizing.

I been monitoring the leading sectors like an eagle. Banks and props seems to be hesistating...i need them to break the previous high convincingly otherwise, i remain cautious. This is because one of the scenarios i painted is one by one the sectors trade and fail at resistance, then the market may fall. Otherwise if the former sectors starts to break new highs, then this bull has got legs.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

A normal Bull market retracement?

Finally we closed the week in the black. Many had asked why wasn't the blog updated. The truth is, i was keeping to my plan: to wait for the retracement to complete and i shall try long. May is coming to an end...The notion of sell in May, go away lingers on my mind. Anyhow, to me, the current upward trend is still intact. Many had said this is a bear market rally... it has ended. I for 1 will not be worried about that, to me, so long market is in a trend, that is where i can make easy money. Since my indicators are telling me uptrend, i shall continue to look to buy. The timing is crucial and as of now, the market hasn't turned. I checked the global indices, the leading sectors and stocks... we ain't going down as yet. For assurance, it will be good if we have a powerful rally to take out the previous high. Otherwise deja vu.

Let us be clear, what can be the catalyst for a selldown or resume of bear market? Bank's stress test reveals that only 74B need to be raised... this is peanuts as compared to how much they have prepared or printed. GM and Chrysler to go bankrupt? Market already warmed to this fact. More job losses? Yes it is expected from the automobile industry. Last week's retail spending was disappointing, the last GDP result was worse off than expected however market shrugged it off as it doesn't reflect going forward. Even many big firm results came in better than estimates, signalling it's not that bad afterall. Magic word... seems like market is full of optimism with regards to the recovery. As such, if there is no sudden bankrupt of any big names or big spike down in econ numbers, this upward trend may edge forward cautiously.

From my homework, it pays to watch next week closely. If we see heavy dumping, i would turn short. Otherwise if volume continues to contract and then a big volume day comes along, time to long?


STI: My eyes caught the bullish crossovers of the short term MAs and the longer term MAs. This is bullish. I eye 2095 as possible immediate support for STI, otherwise, 2026 to 1960 is where a more comfortable support zone is. Ideally, we trade sideways and meet the 20-day MA.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Focussing on the next move

I'm sure i am not alone... many would have taken profit and miss a bulk of this rally. I was sad.... to see the price flew off after taking profit... wah... fly a bit nevermind, not when i only capture 8% gain out of 40%? It took me 2 days to get over it. For the record, i didn't chase the rally. Past experiences of pain told me to act sensibly. A couple of things, I didn't make my money at the beginning of the last bull cycle. I made my money during the upward trend, and the recent bear market. Hence i know, miss this round, no problem! There is always the next trade. The most important thing is that i must know what to observe before i put on my next trade. It's actually bery simple... the first pull back, i will not short, rather, i will find the low and go long. Now after i long, i will be looking to see if we can break previous high, if we fail to do so, we would have a lower high.. from there, i will run my longs, then turn short... i will add more shorts, if we break the previous low. If we dun form a lower high, then it will be safe for me to add more longs and continue to trade on the upward trend. All these will be done with the help of a few indicators and candlestick patterns.

I think even fund managers will take profit around here or slightly higher. Such good profits, why would they leave it on the table? They are the experts, surely they will take profits and register the half year gains in their report? keke It's where the retracement holds that's key for many traders now.

Today STI retraces, i observed from my screening that nothing bearish as yet.. it could still go either way. Continue to observe.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, May 04, 2009

Results from Tradersclub

Dearest all,

I just want to share some of the key homework done by the exclusive traders club over Saturday's ChartNexus TradeFEST. More impressive, this analysis is not done by me... it's done by the graduates... at traders club, they practise what they have learnt. Trainers are there to make sure the analysis is correct... Mastery comes from doing. As the lead trainer for the day, i added my experience in their analysis, especially on when to long or short and what works and what doesn't...

HSI:
Resistance at 15.9k
Support at 13.9k
Now that Resistance at 15.9k is broken, we look to 17.3k to 17.6k to offer as resistance.
RSI consistently above 50% tell us that the current uptrend is intact. Also there is a turn in MacD from 4r1g.

If HSI has candlestick reversal patterns near the said resistance, and the same weakness can be observed from the other indices, then it will be a good chance to short. Otherwise we track the 20-day ma, if global indices broke that in unison, it is a good short.

DJI:
Although on the weekly charts we saw 3 hanging men candlestick pattern, but there is no bearish confirmation candle. We observed that the current uptrend broke the 61.8% Fibo resistance, which means technically the previous downtrend has been compromised.
Resistance at 8.3k
Support is at 7.8k

Trading strategy will be the same as HSI. We need the global indices to show the same weakness before we short.

STI:
Support at 1781
Resistance 1960 but broken today already and we are currently trading right at the 200 day moving average as resistance. This is a formidable resistance because it confluence with the falling window. Next target is 2220 if we clear the resistance offered at 200 day moving average.

Now that it has broken the 6-month high, Please be patient to wait for the pull back before attempting to long. I rather miss the rally than being caught buying too high. Money is lost when we buy at the "high"... this can be very painful. Also dun be overly bullish until you miss "20th May 2008" where 3 stars aligned

KepCorp:

There is a hanging man on the weekly. It will be bearish if we close this week lower and form a black candle confirmation on the weekly chart.

200-day MA is where resistance is but we broken today. To trade Kepcorp, watch the following:
1. High volume black candle
2. 20-day moving average broken along with other stocks in the same sector or accross the market.
3.If hanging man confirmed on the weekly chart.

Ascendas Reits:

Support is at 1.32; resistance at 1.50. 4g1r on the macd may signify pull back is over. Currently supported at 38.2% fibo support which confluence with 100-day moving average. The lead trainer of the day shared a very important message here: He questioned why AscendasReits is not going up despite other reits moving significantly higher. He never likes laggard and warns members to focus on those that are moving instead. Indeed, at today's closing, AscendasReits closed mixed... below par... as compared to other reits. No wonder the trainer is so likeable... keke

CityDev:

Resistance at 7.30 which is today's closing. We short only if we see high volume pull back and trigger CT1. Or if we break 20-day moving average in unison across the same sector. To long, you may deploy 38.2% fibo as support or you patiently wait for the next tt1 or 4r1g signal.

The tall and slim trainer also suggest that, when you want to trade one stock, remember to check the same stocks in the same sector for confirmation.

I know market has been crazily bullish... patience my friends...


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.