Sunday, June 29, 2008

Dow broke March's low



Dow has broke the psychological support level which is the low achieved in March. The ADX is screaming at a strong downtrend. However with such an extreme movement on this indicator, we may see light at the end of the tunnel. This may be just a slight rebound. Especially with RSI in oversold. I will be watching for major support levels in most stocks. Once they crack, "mai tu liao".



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Banking stocks & Straits Asia

After performing my usual 4 steps screening with XPertTrader, banking stocks and Straits Asia appeared to look interesting technically. For banking stocks, they will have a short term rally should Ben unexpectedly raise the interest rate. From the charts, DBS and OCBC looks like reversing. For Straits Asia, I see a possible chance to do counter-trend trading here. With it's well known volatility, this short-term opportunity should be worth taking a look.

Golden Agri together with the rest of the agriculture stocks got hammered today. This furthers reinforced my belief that i should not be riding on trends as there is non to speak of in this current market. It is better to take profit at resistance level or support level if short. Just checked the news and saw that oil slips $4 on increase in inventory. Tsk tsk... news must have leaked out during Asia trading hours, otherwise why did these stocks lao sai in anticipations of the news? Price moves ahead of news my friends....

STI together with Dow is now trading very very close to 2008's low. Should we break that low, I suspect the bulls will throw in the white towel and bears will be in charge for quite some time. With earning season coming up, look out for nasty surprise.

If you are feeling confuse over the current market, there is only one way to stay focussed and composed. Let me share a few tricks:

a) Take smaller position than usual to minimise risk.
b) Form an opinion on the stock market and trade your opinion. (XP subscribers, we will be sharing on market directions at this coming Momentum session)
c) Be patient for the next trade instead of rushing into one.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Awaiting Big Ben

Today's actions surprised me. Again the market looks resilient. This was observed last week as well as many stocks hold steady after the plunge in May'08. Look around, and you will notice alot of stocks are still not trading below the March's low. I too am tempted to go long to take advantage of this rebound. However i choose to do otherwise. With my trendlines and indicators in place, i realise this may not be the best time to go long as yet. No doubt we are near support levels, but experience tells me, there is a time to fish near support, there is also a time even support can breaks easily. The trading principle behind this is, in a bull market, support levels will hold and resistance levels will crack. The opposite is true for the bear market. I paused.... closed my eyes as i sit comfortably with soft music playing in the background in my war room... what do we observe in the market? Resistance are holding and support level has cracked. Some stocks got resisted at 200-day MA as well. With this evidence being so obvious, it's no wonder i feel uncomfortable going long. Commodities is the only sector that is rightly going against the bear tide. Due to it's volatility, i opted to give it a miss despite seeing the sector moved. 80% of the stocks are in trouble and i reckoned my odds are better if i can identify the sector in trouble and go short on it. Currently there are not many trending stocks in the market. Infact, any trendtrading strategy would probably not work in the current market condition. Short-term trading and chart formations and basic support and resistance will work very well in the current market. One of the reasons for not going long on commodity stocks is due to the volatile oil. Hearsay Saudi and the rest of the world are trying to bring down the oil price. Hence i won't be surprise if they are in favour today and then fall flat next day.

STI currently swee swee nice nice sitting on the trendline support with today's closing. MFI is also pretty close to a rebound. For tonight, i will be using my volume rule to screen the market to pick up any stocks with unusual volume. The reason i like this XPertTrader rule is because this simple scan allows me to understand what is going on in the stock market. From the results, i will be able to sniff out any unnoticed opportunities.

Anyway, currently i am still trying to decipher what the market anticipates of Ben's actions. Cutting rate is out of the question. The answer i would like to know is how market will react to a rate increase or hold steady the rate. Dow,

Let us also not forget this is the last week of June and we may expect to see window dressing in some index stocks.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The bears came knocking again


STI hangs precautiously near 2 support namely the trendline and the gap support. With Dow overnight strong closing to the south pole. Monday morning should see pressure. A quick glimpse of the world indices revealed nothing but weakness. Perhaps they are anticipanting Ben to talk about inflation and worse still, to raise rate? I saw a report on Sunday times reporting funds pulling out of this region. A replica of what i saw in 2001. I have been waiting for Dow to give me a tua lao sai to the south, but it never came and i had to cover my capland on the rebound. Now it's gone to where i had anticipated, but i have got no short position. Haiz... got to find a stock from XPertTrader to short this coming week.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Third time lucky?


XPertTrader picks up Golden Agri as it tested 200-day MA as a support. Couple this up with the strong rally by IndoAgri (broke downtrend resistance line) and Wilmar, attractive isn't it?

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Money in the pocket is mine

My last observation on the market tells me we may not see lower. As such, i promptly took my profits off capland shorts. There wasn't any fear in the market to add fuel to the fire which is shorting in this case. With a falling window yet to be closed, i reckon the rebound may take me back to at least $6. My options were clear, do i want to keep the profits in the pocket and declare it is my money? Or do i want to leave it on the table to ride out the rebound? Doesn't it makes more sense for me to take my profit and then re-look to short? I choose the latter. UN wants Saudi to increase output. There are risks to the upside. Especially Dow's sterling performance on Friday due to tame reading on inflation. Also, many of the oscillators were oversold..indicating a rebound may be coming.

Another reason for me to take my profit is the loss suffered last month where i went full long at the wrong time. Slowly but surely, i will accumulate my profits.

STI has a big gap from 3146 to 3085 to fill. Also, let us not forget the earning season will kick off in July. Also watch the last week of June for the fund dressing. US side, tomorrow night will have econs data again. PPI.

XPertTrader Screening
Banyan Tree
Wilmar
Celestial (Bullish harami) + 50MA support The only thing i don't like is, S-shares may not be in play
Ezra


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Dow rebounds to no avail

Even a brief rebound by Dow couldn't prevent our market going down. HSI ended spectacularly lower. Our bourse also faced a late sell off as many stocks finished near their lows. This time round i'm blissfully on short as i stared at how weak the market was. Capland simply went "holland" and closed below the $6 mark. I decided to cut my manhattan resource as i see weakness from the weekly chart. I certainly doesn't want a eat pig pay dog situation here. How unfair can it be? Straits asia goes green and my manhattan goes down... both are coal related... #@$@#$!@#%


Capitaland: Price over-extends itself and we are now trading outside the uptrend channel. MFI reading shows that money has been flowing out of capland since Apr. Something for shortist to watchout for, there is a slight bullish divergence on Capland.

SIA has finally broken out of it's trading range. The high oil price is without a doubt bad news for it.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, June 09, 2008

Slow death?

The market plunged as expected and we saw many support levels cracked. Especially S-shares, last 2 weeks saw them testing their support levels and looked firm. It may have induced alot of investors in. Genting and Golden surely have trapped many. With these supports giving way, more downside to come. However, the volume was nothing much to shout about. With my volume screening rule, it reveals that many of these support levels cracked but not many are with heavy volume signifying lesser participation. Unlike resistance, support broken with light volume doesn't mean it won't fall down further. It is like an avalanche, as it falls, more and more players will feel the heat and one by one they start to sell creating a snowball effect. This is where we see the price keeps dropping on light volume....dying a slow death. Rather, if we see high volume sell off, then the market has a chance to recover faster.

STI is trading too close to 3000 for comfort. Should we break this psychological level, there will be talks again about seeing STI at 2700.

Due to the gap downs, i find the current risk reward not good to add to my shorts. But those stocks hanging near their 20/50 day low will be shortists target. XPertTrader users can use this rule to screen for these stocks.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, June 08, 2008

Black Monday

With Dow plunging -394 on Friday, it's hard for STI not to follow suit. The strength on Thursday night evaporated after a higher than expected unemployment rate hits Wall Street. It's going to be a very interesting Monday for me. Friday night as i was watching CNBC with great delight. Why? Because, with such a heavy plunge on Dow, my short on capland is almost certain to be profitable. More interestingly, all the coal stocks in US were up! I too had manhattan resources. Will it be double bliss for me?

Last week i had to cut my HSICW. My bet on a hsi rebound did not materialise and i had to cut my position at a loss. I was glad i stuck to my plans and exited when my stop loss was triggered. Otherwise tomorrow, that small loss will balloon into a big loss! Dow at most goes down a few more days as the oscillators are already in oversold. I am anticipating a candlestick reversal pattern for easy decision making.

European Championship got into the way this weekend. Market participation level may drop. June will be a good time to build a good base to prepare for the earning season in July.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Singtel to breakout to downside?


Singtel: Indicators suggesting a breakout to downside possible. Price resisted at 20DMA, sell signal from TT2 (CTA course short strategy). A quick check with GMMA which is a trend indicator shows that indeed we may enter into a downtrend. $3.60 is the support to watch.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Market under seige

Nikkei, HSI and SG came under fire after the weak closing on Dow. Will we see March's low? The only index to save us will be HSI, it has the ability and a mind of its own to lead the S-shares. Look out for a late afternoon reversal before our market sucummb to european pressure at 4pm.


Capland, along with many property counters came down. More interestingly, a descending triangle breakout just before lunchtime. Possible target of $5.80.



Dow: A temporary bounce off the previous low and we look towards the low 12,000s should this level give way. I am looking at a possible line(blue) of least resistance to the downside.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, June 02, 2008

Nightmare before nightfall

Those who were looking at the market wouldn't have missed the afternoon sell-down. Dow futures plunged and euro's weak opening didn't help either. HSI was very strong whole day and at one stage lead the S-shares in our bourse. Gosh, i nearly bought one of them. But being long on HSI and manhattan resource, i reckon it isn't sound to be vested heavily on the long side in this volatile market. I am still seeing downtrend channel... unless we break that. Of course my all out loss last week still fresh on my mind and this prevented me from being too aggressive. Is it time to short? Yes, i will be looking to short if stocks break their minor low.




No good opportunities today, but i found a classic candlestick reversal pattern in Ezra's chart. With such high volume and a bearish reversal pattern, it's very difficult to not die.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.