Wednesday, September 26, 2007

守得云开,见明月

Just as the title of tonight article suggest, patience was rewarded sweetly. After being frustrated by the market for no less than 3 weeks. The rotational interest went to the mid caps and also oil & gas sector. This round, I managed my emotions very well. Instead of acting out my emotions in the market, I fired away on the keyboard on Monday night. Managing one's emotions is very important in trading. I never forget, other than T.A, money mgmt and psychology are the pieces to the jig saw puzzle. I would have made the same mistake of the yester years should i have sold just because the stock doesn't move. All the expensive lessons of the past has served me well.

I went on a shopping spree today and bought Genting alongside YangZhiJiang. With 5 stocks in my portfolio, i won't be in a hurry to add more. Instead i'll be looking to harvest. Genting's resilience caught my eyes and YangZhiJiang had a chart formation breakout known as inverse H & S.

My Malaysia counterpart Mr Justin Tan will be kick starting a series of Technical Analysis workshops in collaboration with theStarOnline in Kuala Lumpur. If you are trading the Bursa, you can check out the details at www.chartnexus.com/events . For Singapore investors, our next date with you will be at SGX Auditorium, details can be found at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1133

Screening results from GrowMoney Trading System shows at least 25 stocks. The market looks likely to extend its gains. I be watching any follow through buying.

If you notice i haven't been talking in the shoutbox recently....something is bothering me... why is that a powerful and simple to use software which is affordable to the typical retail investor isn't selling like hot cakes? I am indeed a poor salesman. No matter how I showed that trading system can be easily downloaded from the Library for a quick start, or how easy it is to look for buying or selling opportunities once you have your rules defined in the XPertTrader. Long time ago when I was still using "X" charting software, I had to flip so many charts everynight to determine what to buy sell. Eversince I adopted ChartNexus XPertTrader, things got so much simpler! Everything I wanted to know about the market can be retrieved by click of a "Start Screening" button. Anyway, i will try harder to show how great a companion XPertTrader is.

Quiz of the day, there is one obvious sector that had gone quiet for quite sometime.... time to tikam?

Also if you are interested to learn about short term price pattern trading techniques, i am invited to speak at next month's Smart Investment and International Expo 2007 happening at Suntec City. You know what's the best part? Admission is free!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Adv Hldg
Ausgrp
Genting
YangZhiJiang

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Frustrations

Over the last few weeks, i revisited one of the most torturing emotion known as frustrations. This feeling stems from being able to get the market direction right and yet the portfolio didn't generate any profits. The worst thing to do when emotion gets the better of me is to trade on impulse. The great Livermore said, when you are trading, it's important to have a stable emotional state and inner peace is very important.

The wrong thing to do is to cut my positions just because they frustrate me. This is because from the charts, the critical supports have not give way. Nothing on the T.A side i had done wrong. I conclude that i was too early in the sectors i bought. Was it too early or am I proven wrong by the market? Also, to miss the banks and properties rally, i have only myself to blame. Yes, no one else, not the market, not the chng kay but myself. Because i was slow to react. I DID NOT pull trigger. I was retarded!

If anything, the way i saw all the bad FA companies rotate to rally, again seems like warning sign. MEdia Ring???? Got sala or not??? then again many breakouts no follow through. A friend reminded me end of Sept liao.... fund may be dressing up until nice nice.

Also, i cannot stand the magnitude of HSI going up north. It's ok to go up but not when it's without me!!!! Again here i was retarded! A strong word but yes. I took too much time in reading the market and didn't pull the trigger.

With a strong Monday, tomorrow and Wednesday i will be looking for weakness followed by firm actions.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Good Finishing

Last Friday's closing is a show of strength as we see broadbased buying. Lian Beng closed significantly higher and many of the construction plays came back roaring. I too observed buying interest across the board. Construction and oil & gas plays has been quiet for nearly 2 weeks after they came out of the rut strongest. Banks and Properties followed after rate cut. Then we saw baltic sensitive stocks STX and NOL rock the charts. Mid and small caps went sleeping. One by one, punters favourite came alive and often times it was shortlived. Banjoo, Jade...C2O, Atlantac... It made me very tempted to hunt for the next probable old flame and punt waiting for chng kay to push up.

I saw many stocks start to turn in my trading system. Good sign. I'm using a trend system and hence if i continue to see those signals coming up and those stocks keep going higher, it only means the market is trending higher. If I see those stocks with signals stop short in a trading range, i will know market is probably not going anywhere soon. I shall then do swing trading and not ride a trendless market.

If you havealways wanted to know about Fibonacci and it's application in trading, do not hesistate to join me at SGX Auditorium as I share with you practical trading experience with Fibonacci. Register at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1133 now!

Quiz: What does ChinaTranscom, Sunvic, UnionMet has in common?
Ans: Cessation of substantial shareholder

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Adv Hldg
Ausgrp

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Friday, September 21, 2007

A glimpse on indices






DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Market refuses to head lower

I decided to cut my Federal last Friday after a failed breakout. Today I cut my HSIPW after HSI did not follow through yesterday's selling. After monitoring the price actions for the whole day, it seems to me that it doesn't want to go down. At every dip, there is plenty of buyers. As I am buying the warrants, i cannot forget it is a wasting asset due to the time decay factor. If I had shorted the futures, then I can perfects trade my short position higher, or do a scale up selling.

My plan was to lift either my stocks or puts according to where the market is likely to head, when europe market opened steady, and hsi close firm, i had to lift my puts in favour of a positive reaction by the market tomorrow.

Another reason for lifting my HSIPW is that, I don't want to risk the upside due to a possible interest rate cut. Although I do not think cutting the interest rate can solve the problem, but who am i to go against the market? Rather than holding on to the put warrants and stand against the tide, I believe after this rally, we may risk a possible downside. I don't know how far can this rally goes, but since it's going up, i shall long until the market showed otherwise.

Plenty of banks are giving results this week in US. This is key to understand the impact of subprime or credit crunch.

Next week's Technical Analysis class is sold out once again and October's class is filling up. The current demand for Technical Analysis knowledge is just amazing. This sets me thinking, with more and more retail investors knowing how to avoid risk, can this bull run be more sustainable than we thought?

I will also start to kick start a series of Technical Analysis training videos. As you can see, the first on Fibonacci has been posted. I hope to help in a small way. Every week, i will upload a new training video hence stay tuned! : )

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Adv Hldg

If Ah Ben really cut rate, reits, properties should benefit. Ausgrp was picked up by my Trading system.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Friday, September 14, 2007

No eyes see

With my stocks not going up, and HSI going against my trade strongly..... I stepped into Federal upon breakout and once again, breakout no follow through....


Thursday, September 13, 2007

Under-estimating China Money

I had under-estimated the power of China money as Hang Seng finished new high once again. Seems like the word sell or profit-taking is not in the chinese dictionary. My short position is out of the money. It will be foolish of me to counter the trend. I will look to trade up my short position ahead of Fed's meeting. Also if the market refuse to head lower, I will be looking to add more stocks.

AdvHldg looks to be holding well with volume drying up. LC Dev, i don't like the way it failed at the breakout and once again there is no follow up buying in the sector. Infact this syndrome can be observed accross the market. Some glaring forgotten stocks like unionmet, sunvic, had an incredible run. Also, it seems like the market tone is firming up. I will be watching the next leg down since we are not able to maximise the gap up over the last 2 days. Gaps are very powerful as it marks th strong conviction of the market participants. If 2 successive gap ups unable to propel market higher, i must be prudent.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Construction flexes muscle

After taking a week's break, constuctions rumble again and hitting top volume. I picked up LC Dev after the latter seem to have broke out with volume and price. However it seem to have hit resistance 0.480. I just have to try because i had been tracking this stock for weeks and been waiting to pull trigger. When the signal came, i just have to stick to my discipline. I also added a batch of HSI PW. This is for my structural short position if the market tanks down form here as this is a very attractive level to hold a short. With 2 stocks in my portfolio for now, i'm hedged. If the market proves to be resilient, i shall cut my put warrants and long more. If I am correct on the downside, i shall remove my long positions and look to short more. I believe market has arrived to what we call a pivot point.

Screening the market with XPertTrader, I saw quite a number stocks traded higher with high volume. It seems to me market is rotating through the sectors. Why else would sunvic and unionmet rock the charts? After flipping through many charts, i saw a perfect reason to head down. Many charts are trading near or at the support now turns resistance. If they can break this level successfully, i believe more upside. If they goes lower, that will be used as a reason by technical traders.

Market should be awaiting 18th Sept. I still haven't formed an opinion of what Ben will do and how market may react. Oil price hits record high and subprime still a question mark. Both are good reasons to justify a slowing or to slow down the economy. Perfect reason for market to be sluggish.


Last evening at the Stock Selection with XPertTrader, i almost cried in front of the capacity class. My heart sank when I randomly screened the market with my trading system to show how to use XPertTrader and out came C2O Holding which was alerted on 23rd Aug 2007. Why didn't i see it ? Complacency! After getting no results from the system screening for a few nights, i assumed that many stocks are still in downtrend and that it will be fruitless to do homework and hence skipped for a few nights thinking until I saw strength in the market. Gosh....

Anyway, ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course is filling up fast with 3 weeks to go! Last count, is left only 5 seats. This course doesn't just teach you a system or 1 strategy, it covers a wide spectrum of working technical analysis knowledge that will empower you to trade any market with the knowledge..... be it futures, forex or stocks. The only drawback is, participants must come with laptop as it will be practise focussed and we are practising on lastest charts.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Bracing for the onslaught

Looking at the chart of STI, if we close lower than 3400s, it will be ugly. Technically it means we have some more downside. Many would expect STI to test the last low 2960. Personally, if fibo 38.2% holds at 3300, effectively we still have higher low. And should STI turns up from there, good sign. Anyhow, there is currently no catalyst for STI to be bullish. I favour working out a nice chart base and then we challenge 3700 by November.

All along, i favour another leg down to ascertain the selling pressure and hence I didn't actively load up stocks to avoid risk but only 1 which is Adv Hldg. Tomorrow I will scrutinise the tape closely. I did for a moment feel like a fool watching the market rebound strongly and yet I did not profit much. Greed. Technically, it is risky to load up and hence staying out is my best option. Had I sucummb to greed, tonight i would be a very worried man as i will be badly exposed to the possible downside facing us tomorrow.

Ai zai, recently, i notice STI recently divert from the DJ movement. Should HSI remains firm, we should survive like the 300 brave men from spartans. Higher low higher low! *chant*


While I anticipated the employment data to be poor, my take on the market direction was wrong. I had anticpated due to the poor data, market may like the idea that it can induce Fed to cut interest rate and that we should at least close flat or up. Instead, we went down big time. This will impact Monday's opening for Asia market. While it is expected to fall, my eyes were on the possible support levels to justify an uptrend intact. Also, why would the job data post any surprise to the market? From the subprime fall out, it is already in the known alot of people are losing jobs. Why did market plunge despite knowing such an obvious data? Market taking that as an excuse to sell? Wouldn't this latest data induce Fed to cut rate? What happens if they refuse to cut rate? What happens if they cut. Technically, i saw something unpleasant. 13,300s level turns from support to resistance. 13k must hold, otherwise it will trigger more technical selling.



HSI hits uptrend resistance line and looks ready to pull back with RSI hitting similar resistance. There were 2 gaps and I think the second one closer to 22,400s will likely be a support if any as the gap support confluence with fibo 38.2%.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

STI rumbles!




Analysing Adv Hldg in details as I have vested interest. RSI is near resistance, Possible resistance level is 0.520 and target price of flag pole should be conservatively 0.570

Adv Hlding went higher after breakout the previous day and it has been going up for 2 days straight. Hence I ought to be prudent and will be looking to sell upon weakness for a successful swing trade. What makes this win sweeter is that it is screened using XPertTrader. I am going to upload this rule into our XPertTrader library so that subscribers can enjoy using the rule. Maybe next week at the workshop, i will demonstrate.

For those interested to join ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course, you will be given 3 months free of XPertTrader subscriptions worth $105.

XPertTrader Screening for Short term Price pattern:
Armstrong
Tiongwoon
SunningTech
SMB United
Occulus
Yongnam
LC Dev
Lum chang

I'm still observing for breakouts in the stocks above. Tomorrow is Friday and it will be a fantastic time to fish if the weather is fine. On the weekly chart, am seeing almost 59 stocks turning around on their weekly chart.... no buy very sayang.... so i may pick up one more.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Technical Glitch on STI

Many thanks to Minwen and Zhi Yang from mypaper.sg (hope i get the name right as my mandarin is only half past six) for featuring my humble blog in the papers. The mandarin in the passage was like wow! so many idioms ah.. keke somehow intensify a simple interview.. wah journalist jiu si journalist... the pen bery powerderful! :D And Zhi Yang, snap snap away at shenton way with many passerbys giving me the wierd look! haha I thought i will never have to do this after my bridal shoot, i was wrong! :D
It was certainly a pleasant surprise for my folks. Thanks for making their day a happy one. : )

Early in the trading day, there was a technical glitch on STI. Simsci open gap up and my put warrants from the day before looks set to be BBQ'ed. However due to the glitch, STI did not track simsci and it gave me time to get out of my put warrants with a 2 bids loss. Lucky escape! However, as i always avoid risk, the warrants i bought has got a slower delta and hence it won't move very fast against me. My choice of warrants has always been if i'm wrong, it should move slowly against me, when i'm right, it should move faster in my favour.


STI: Upward Fibo resistance 61.8% compromised. However the volume on the way up is classic warning sign. However, i will only be wary and not take any actions as too many times, volume can just pick up suddenly on the upside. 3407 thereabts should be good support if uptrend would to be engineered. Ultimately, i see a possible ex-support now will become a potent resistance. For the good of everyone, let us hope we "soon soon" break through it and welcome back the bulls.

Today I picked up Adv Hldg after a chart base breakout. Although my view was that the subprime thingy is something serious and that it can cripple the finance system. However, as Jesse Livermore puts it, "Opinions are often wrong and Market is always right" I am not going to argue with what is happening. Since market doesn't want to go down, what good does it do for me to be sidelined, stubbornly sticking to my views and refuse to trade? I tried to short the index over the last few weeks and although i made on all 3 occassions, it was a hint to me market wants to trend higher. This is because, the levels i shorted are near pivoting points where index should plunge. Instead, index showed resilience and I have to go for quick profits instead of pocketing a big profits. Furthermore, together with participants from my course, we deciphered what could happen this week on Sunday. Anyway, I'm comfortable doing swing trades until i see a couple of nice uptrending stocks for me to ride on.

XPertTrader Screening for Short term Price pattern:
Armstrong
Tiongwoon
StraitsAsia
Occulus
Yongnam
LC Dev
Lum chang

From my nightly volume screening... alot of shipping companies hog the list... think think think.. after shipping what should move??? So far red army not moving??? where are the old china favourites? Will they cheong?

Something interesting!!! Capitaland appeared in my growmoney trading system screening. The natural thing I want to observe over the next few days is more property stocks coming onto my XPertTrader results. If that happens, my anticipation is not only will property counters move, STI will not go down too.

DJ is trading at -150 at the point of my entry, i have no fear as yet as it is only normal for it to pull back and corrects. Mid week corrections can make way for a good Friday closing.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

30k to 40k per month?

Just to set the record right, I am not making 30k to 40k per month! haha It was an estimation based on my stock picks by the press.

I never like to tempt people into trading promising big profits. It is certainly not easy. Rather for anyone who wishes to join this game, understand the RISK and learn how to manage risk before we even think about big profits. Thinking about profits all the time will weaken your psychology against market swings which are normal and happen plenty of times. This is one reason why many people took a loss and then only to watch the market rebound on them.

Trust me, when you are able to decipher the market, money will flow naturally. Focus on deciphering the market.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Early Stage of Recovery?

The market showed a glaring no follow through in buying where most of the stock went under profit taking. A slew of economic data are due from the US. Bush and Ben assurance about economy and credit crunch did not have any impact outside US as all other regions succumb to weaker closing. Nothing bearish as yet as there were no massive selldown not including Midas.

If we are at the early stage of recovery, sector by sector, interest will rotate in. It will not be good to see one sector after another showing "stalling" actions. Which means massive volume yet prices refuse to close higher. However i don't rule out one more leg down. This is because the current psychological state of market participants should be nervy and quick to profit. So long price doesn't move up further, common thinking is to sell first. Hence it is important for me to track the 4 sectors as mentioned yesterday for any clues of market direction. Since tomorrow is already Wednesday then Friday's closing should be easier to anticipate.

Calling all ex-Cracking the Stock Market Code participants...there is a workshop organised just for you. Please check your mailbox for the invitation or visit http://www.chartnexus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=262 or email to decipherlabs@yahoo.com.sg, only opened for ChartNexus Alumni.

XPertTrader Screening:
Results for potential short term price pattern: (Pending breakout for swing trade)
AdvHldg, Tiongwoon, LC Dev

Results for unsually big volume: (Pending short pause after sharp rally)
Sinopipe, STX, Sino-Env

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, September 03, 2007

2 Obvious Sectors

After tracking the rebound for 2 weeks, as we enter into the third week, it is time to pick the sector i will be invested in. Once I am confident of the market direction, this is the sector i will build my new portfolio around. From this sector, i will then look for the leader by my own definitions. Oil and gas suppliers looks good and constructions, it will be interesting to see if there is any follow through buying since they only started to rumble last week. I treat today's no follow through as an indication that there are plenty of selling still.

Banks and Properties are the 2 sectors i will also scrutinise closely. I am taking a contrarian view here because it is too obvious that these 2 sectors will be under pressure. Using technical analysis, i will follow the smart money and avoid conventional thinking. Should smart money began to buy, i will follow too. But right now, i'm happier to stay sidelined.

Recently, i managed to devised a XP screening rule to pick up possible short term price patterns for swing trading. I think in this month's issue of SmartInvestor, I had written about that as well as taught this topic at ChartNexus's monthly event as SGX Auditorium.

I will be tracking 3 stocks for possible swing trades, TiongWoon, Adv Hldings, StraitsAsia, OrientCent.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.