Thursday, December 28, 2006

Last Trading Day of 2006

It began fantastically and is going to end in the similar fashion. Congratulations to all those who made money this year! : ) Those who lost instead of win, something is not right! Please do something about it. I am like you losing money in a bullish year before and if I can reverse the situation, so can you!

I think throughout the year, I have sent only a couple of message to my yahoo group. It began in January where I pre-empted the move of property and banks correctly, then when market crashed in May, I highlighted ship repair sector to watch and a possible rebound in stock market in July and the latest message was to buy on weakness in the week leading to the last week of 2006. I am glad I have been helpful in your quest to GROW MONEY!

2006 will also be remembered for my venture into public speaking and training for Technical Analysis. Thank you to all those who have attended my courses or workshops and I look forward to meeting the hundreds of you again in 2007! Huat arh!

It's a pity that I couldn't be online to share my analysis over the last week, my girl was hospitalised with suspected dengue fever and i have to step up to take care of her. For those who have sent your regards via email, a big thank you. : ) Great news, her blood palletes rebounded and today formed a bullish reversal pattern! keke Her fever is hitting into resistance and anytime will reverse into a downtrend and then can be discharged liao!! : )

This week was suppose to be a great chance to make money but alas I have to give it up. No regrets though... read on. Wealth or Health, which should come first? I believe everything happens for a reason in life. If I haven't lost heavily in the market before, I will definitely not appreciate how to be patient and learn the right way to trade. Destiny wants me to spend the last week of the year in hospital and miss trading for a reason, to witness the suffering of the many patients warded. It reminded me that money is not everything. If you do not have the health to enjoy the wealth, you will spend the wealth to mend the health.

Decipher would like to take this chance to wish everyone a healthy and bountiful 2007 ahead!

Happy New Year Folks!

Yours sincerely,
Decipher

P.S For those interested to spend a Saturday with me, reserve your seat at www.chartnexus.com/events

Year End Open Positions:
Cosco Corp
Tat Hong
ChinaSky
MediaRing

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Market got Thai *Hokkien

Market was whacked on Tuesday by the stupid currency policy by Thais. They must have shorted the market! Because they reversed their policy at night! Maybe they are partying at some part of Bangkok last night? Why? Because as soon as they cover back their shorts, they went long! hahaha Thai market rebounded 11%!

I sold my HSI CW which i caught last Friday. In theory, after a breakout of it's 19.1k resistance, there should be a pull back. Hence I took my profit and waited for the pull back. It came, but the pull back was hard and fast and sharp! This is news induced and hence theory was thrown out of the window. Instead, I related the incident to that of the Thailand Coup earlier in the year. I went with my view of a market knee jerk reaction and bought another HSI CW. I haven't sold yet as I see 19.4k possible target. Global markets are recovering from the Thai cock up and I think after the flushing, now we have buyers ready to step in after cutting loss.

I am still not aggressive on stocks as i think most of them are in trading range. However my eyes are on window dressing next week. Friday should pick up 1 or 2 more.

Current Holdings:
Cosco
ChinaSky
MediaRing
Tat Lui
HSICW
OCBC CW

GrowMoney QuickPicks
CDL Reits

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

Good CPI, Good PPI too?

Can it be double happiness for US market? CPI numbers came in good and we are expecting PPI number on Tuesday. If that turns out good as well, u la la~~~ I have been stopped out of my last STI PW. Looks like this bull is very strong. Last week was a super good chance to drag all investors and traders into mourning but Ah Gu came back and lift us up. A check on the weekly charts of major indices globally shows that the trend is still intact and more upside could be coming.

I have gotten a HSI CW on Friday after cutting loss on my STI PW. Also for the rest of the week, my strategy will be to buy on down days for the Capricon Effect.

I have good news! GrowMoney group has the most members in the yahoo investment and trading groups! Our community has indeed grew alot of the past year. I hope as the moderator, I had served you well. : ) Cheers!

And for those who missed my last Technical Analysis Class, mark your calendar, I will be kick starting ChartNexus series of courses and workshops with Cracking the Stock Market Code.....6th Intake! Information can be obtained at www.chartnexus.com/events

GrowMoney Quickpicks
OCBC

Powered by XPertTrader


HSI Chart:




DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Red Bull

Once again STI defied gravity and we are back into the green once again. This is a warning sign to me. The big retracement didn't happen and what we saw is firm actions. Hence I took my losses in DBS PW and the STI PW at 2700. It doesn't pay to argue with the market. I'm wrong in my analysis of a big retracement so I gladly take my losses while still small. I reckon that it is not going to happen in the near future and hence I took my losses first as i was too early. Instead I kept my STIPW at 2800 as it is near the money. In between I traded HSI PW for quickies. Market to me is range trading for the moment. Deploy your fishing rod at support and sell at resistance.

I am still wary of a sudden correction and hence am not too aggressive in my buying. Prefering to watch my position closely.

For those interested to learn Technical Analysis, please register here >>> www.chartnexus.com/events It's the last event of the year! Freebies like XPertTrader subscribtions up for grabs!

My Holdings:
Cosco Corp
ChinaSky
Tat Lui
MediaRing
STI-PW

GrowMoney QuickPick
Enviro-Hub
RafflesEdu

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DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

STI loses steam

The market finally showed weakness. However alot depends on Big Ben's speech tonight. If US tua lao, we won't get away scott free. The selling now is a perfect setup for post X'mas Rally where we will have our Window Dressing. One of my fellow Trader friend joked, "Undress now so that later can dress up!" haha Although I am singing bear tune for last 2 weeks but believe me i do not want market to crash from here. Just a normal retracement is what the market needed.

Some of the china plays are badly hit. HSI is showing weakness as it is unable to close above 19k after numerous attempts.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Bayan Trees
SunTec Reits

Charts Gallery









DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

The bad signs

I took profit from FerroChina and added another batch of STI PWs. I didn't like the gap up yesterday and no follow through today. Indicators are shouting for reversal. STI hit trendline resistance. Trading volume crossed over 2 billion mark. Banks had moved... ulu stocks hogged the top volume.. it pays to be alert. Seriously, downside risk is higher for now. I will feel alot happier if there is some form of correction or retracement. Today's STI closed with a possible bearish harami. We need a black candle tomorrow to confirm. Let's watch on.

No quickpick for tonight as I am not looking to buy any stocks tomorrow.

My holdings:
Cosco
Lao Hong
DBS PW
STI PW

ChartNexus's Cracking the Stock Market Code is enrolling it's 5th intake! It's affordably priced for those keen in learning the tricks in Trading from OCBC Analyst Ritesh Menon. Details can be found here >>> www.chartnexus.com/events

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

STI to break new high?

The high goes higher! This bull is getting crazy! Refusing to head for a rest. I shall not argue with the market and may go the long side today while still hanging on to my DBS and STI PWs for a hedge.

Last week I managed to scalp HSI PW 2 times. It was suppose to be a hedge for my Lao Hong and Cosco. But in the end, my stocks went up and I still profit from HSI PWs... Happy Irony! hahaha

GrowMoney QuickPicks
FJ Benjamin
FerroChina

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 27, 2006

What goes up, must come down

STI invalidated yet another reversal signal today by closing very high. But! The cracks were there, I saw many stocks struggling to close higher and the volume today is lighter. The recent runup is just amazing. After taking profit from 2 trades, I am now left with 4 stocks. To protect these 4 stocks against any sudden bear strikes, I bought a HSI PW to hedge. Should there be any major sell down, my Put Warrants will give me profits which offset my paper loss in the 4 stocks. If market continues it's upward movement, I will ride on my 4 stocks and lose on the warrant.

I'll not be looking to add stocks. Instead, after selling my 2 shares, I have funds to fund my futures trading account! keke I reckon that should the market corrects from here, shorting the index will be a good way to make money. :P

I am happy to announce there are now only 4 seats left for my Saturday's class!! I have prepared practise charts that will help you understand the theories better or better still, ask me directly and save all the typings. haha
Lai lai Interested party please register at www.chartnexus.com/events choose the 2nd December 2006 class where I am the trainer hor.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Up, up and away!

After a black Monday where the market gave away recent gains and threaten to drop south further, we seen 3 consecutive days of gains. Impressive! But also dangerous! It is always not comfortable to see too steep an incline...once the supply of buyers dry up, we will head south. This is exactly what happened at every market top. I'm tracking market volume very closely. Especially when there seems to be little fear and all greed, prepare your parachute.


I followed a rule my shifu always shared with me, "Sell on the way up". I did so and cleared 3 positions namely Gallant bought 0.920 sold 0.975, JiuTian bought 0.950 sold 0.995 & ChinaDairy bought 0.560 sold 0.565 thus pocketing a very decent profit. All 3 showed signs of weakness and after 2 days of spectacular rise, it makes sense to take profit first. This is consistent to what I have done back in October when STI reached new high. Remember, no one can sell at the exact top. I will never forget the pain I went through during my early days of trading where gains were wiped out as I stubbornly held on thinking every counter I bought will sheng sheng sheng non-stop....how naive i was.

Now, can you do poor old Decipher a favour? If you find my blog entertaining, useful and educational, may I ask you to forward my web address to your friends who might be interested. I aspire to be a leading local trading website providing value to visitors and I can't achieve this alone. Let us tua tua huat together! Huat arh!


My Holdings:
Cosco Corp @ 1.31
Midas @ 1.02
Sembkim @ 0.650
TatHong @ 1.17


GrowMoney QuickPicks
Longcheer


*Powered by XPertTrader



As it's my last article for the week, I would like to invite you to spend a Saturday with me on the 2nd of December 2006. Details as follow, or you can click on this link www.chartnexus.com/events



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Mad Bull Rally


SembKim: No waves without wind. The heavy volume hinted something must be brewing. ADX still has room to expand, MacD has crossed over, price will be back into the Triangle as depicted.
Very high chance to see a breakout of the resistance line. Today it had a gap up, breakaway gap. Let's see what this gap develops as. It will be nice if price heads back up and trade along the trendline. But i'm also wary of the big gap.

Today is a day where everything went well for me. Most of my holdings extended their gains. Just last week, I was complaining about my stocks not moving and how I saw the stocks took turn to rally. I was right. This week, I found 4 of my stocks in deep profits. What a change of fortune.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
CoscoCorp
YanLord

*Powered by XPertTrader

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Chart on Tat Hong aka Lao Hong


Lao Hong (Originally known as TatHong): Resistance now stood at 1.10 which is the 100D MA. 1.03 will be my 61.8% Fibbo Retracement. Apart from that i'm still surprise why the selling in Tat Hong. The heavy volume is key to note. I will be looking at how it tests it's support and resistance levels. Also to count candles + Volume. By the way, I shall now call Tat Hong, Lao Hong in my blog.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 20, 2006

Market Pull Back!

Nikkei left me stone cold. It reminds me of my principal who caned me for not following school rules. In my last article I jumped onto Nikkei too early. I should have waited for market confirmation. Nikkei broke support and I had to run first. I shall live to fight another day. I know the game too well to have stuck my neck out to hope for a rebound tomorrow. My lessons in the past taught me to always cut when the loss is still small. I was too early in buying and if I was right, Nikkei would already show me profits. The fact that it went against me showed that I was wrong in my prognosis and that the underlying strength is changing. Cutting loss will prevent a larger lost. Even if Nikkei were to rebound from here, that will be another trading opportunity on it's on and I shall not treat it as "it could have been a cheaper loss". Thinking this way will cause complacent in cutting loss in the future because "past" experience has taught me that stock can rebound.

Market has begun to retrace, it will be a very strong bull should we see strong buying tomorrow. Otherwise, I will be watching for a bottom to form itself. Should market continues to pull back, remember to watch all the good stocks that you have failed to pick up because they ran away too high too fast.

No quickpicks tonight as market direction is unclear for now.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Nikkei Acting as anticipated

Following Tuesday's gains, Nikkei pulled back on Wednesday and Thursday offering a good chance to go long which I did. I had to because it is behaving according to my anticipation that it is forming a bottom on the weekly chart and I anticipate a white candle by Friday. I always preach to let the market shows where it is heading before we put our money on. Even when I was a young boy, following rules has never been my nature. That explains why my principal used his cane on my bom bom. keke

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Brightworld
ChinaDiary
UIC

*Powered by XPertTrader

XPertTrader Subscriber, MacD Histogram rule coming your way on Sunday! We will upload into XPertTrader Library for you to download and start using! Time to salivate! :D For visitors who are not yet a subscribers and wish to find out more, we welcome you to visit us on 21st Nov at our XPertTrader Workshop! Details can be found at www.chartnexus.com/events . Book your seats early as seats are limited. See you there!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

STI 2800 . Comes sooner than later?

Nikkei pulled back nicely according to plans. It will be a buy for me if it opens quiet, or trade near to 16,100 levels.

After many weeks of inactivity, my account roared back to life! Just as I guessed, they are really rotating one by one, taking turn to rally. Didn't add anything today as I am cash strapped and waiting to pounce on index warrants.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
Jiutian
Sunshine

Cracking the Stock Market Code is now open for it's 4th intake! Details as can be found at the following URL : http://www.chartnexus.com/events/more_details.php?eid=128 . This time round, I'm the trainer! If you have been following my blog and would like to spend a Saturday with me, see you there! : )

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Nikkei Springs back!

Nikkei rebounded it's support level. I will be looking at dips from Wednesday or Thursday for a chance to long. I did not long today because for a normal movement, it should make a light dip before testing 16,500 level again. The dip serve as my confirmation.

As for stocks, today was a great day. But not for me. My stocks practically stood little changed and a little into red territory. I do not like this feeling. But then again, feeling shouldn't interfere with trading. I ought to stick to the support levels i defined.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
CNA
Swissco
Hi-p
Midas
OCBC
ChipEngSeng

*Powered by XPertTrader

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 13, 2006

Nasty Surprise from Celestial

Celestial has been the talk of the town with it's surprising strong sell down today. On the contary, something seems to be brewing with ChinaHong. $2 stock now!!! Amazing! It goes to show how volatile china stocks are. Take extra precaution when trading them. Anyway, you will find that I have been very quiet lately. This doesn't mean i have stopped trading. I just acquired Gallant last Friday. F&N a stock shortlisted last Thursday moved up 8 cents today. I wonder if Gallant will disappoint me.

Anyway, I have cut a number of stocks, Chinasun, MediaRing and Synear. Yes, Synear. Bloody hell!!! Today went up. It goes to show last week sell down was "man made". Tricky!

Current holdings:
Gallant @ 0.920
SembKim @ 0.650
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
Cosco @ 1.31
Midas @ 1.02
Tat Hong @ 1.17

2 stocks i am looking at tomorrow:
Longcheer
SinoEnv

Weak pullback with volume will be perfect entry for me. Otherwise, a quiet open may be another good opportunity to enter.

Indices wise, I am looking at Nikkei for a chance to play long. The strong rebound today caught my eyes. As soon as there is bottoming action, i shall long a strike at 16,000.

Due to my commitments at ChartNexus, I am preparing for more XPertTrader workshops and my own Technica Analysis Classes in December'06. Over the weekend, I had been doing lots of backtesting on strategies for the time period from 1996 to 2006...10 years. I would say this backtesting really made me learn lots of things as i analysed all the charts to confirm the results. If you need such a backtesting tool, do not hesistate to visit www.chartnexus.com or you can ask me in the shoutbox or drop me an email, I will be glad to help. Better still, comes join us at one of our free workshops. See you there!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

STI climbs higher despite profit takings

STI is nearing record high once again. How come i see so many unhappy faces? With market trading at highs, we should all be cheering happily. But really, profit taking was the theme whole week and any rebound became instant profit takings. I sense there was no confidence in the market. Plenty of ulu stocks hogged the top volume. A sign i never liked. We all know the market is going to correct, but somehow i feel it hasn't happen yet. HSI if it doesn't close above 19,000, it risk a very bad candle formation on the weekly chart. Nikkei in contrast, could be forming a bottom on the weekly chart. Dow without saying is at another all time high. But what's the use? Rally by Dow has been ignored by our local bourse. But come to think of it, it is better this way because then we won't have exuberence and without that, it is unlikely market is going to crash big time.

My strategy for the current market will be 隔岸观火, "Observing the fire from the other side of the river". I have shortlisted 2 stocks to watch tomorrow, F&N and Gallant.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to a system i developed using the MacD Histogram. The results from backtesting is more than encouraging! As soon as i finalise the testing, I shall load it up to XPertTrader Library.

We still have about 3 seats left for the Technical Analysis course titled, "Cracking the Stock Market Code". If you have not signed up for the course, please do not forget to do so! See you there!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Eat Pig, Pay Dog

Merril Lynch did it again!!! A report by them on Chinasun sent the stock rebounded fiercely back into the 70s! We have seen them done this a couple of times and they have done it once again. If I tell you i am not *tulan, I am being dishonest!

HSI went crazy and barged into new highs! With US under pressure on Friday, I thought today's going to be a goner, but to my pleasant surprise... Ah Gu is back! Especially China Stocks, i have been noticing them, they seems like taking turn to rally.

By the way, those who are not in my growmoney yahoo group, quickpicks are back!!! As of Sunday, I'm going to start sending quickpicks to my yahoo group. Here in this blog, I will continue to share my observations on the market. But i will still declare when I buy in the shoutbox wherever possible. Like today, I was at HDB hub for their walk in selection....no time to get online. But I bought my quickpicks. :D Not making money yet hor.... !@#!@#!@ they bo cheong...nevermind, maybe tomorrow! :D

Haiyo!!! Longcheer why cheong so fast!!! I not enough money to buy leh!! ChinaSky wait for a few more days will die isit??? Really is pui ah! This few weeks has been a "eat pig pay dog" for me. Nothing fantastic so far except profits in Cosco is swelling up. :D

XPertTrader has released a screen rule on MacD Histogram!!! Yeah!! I have been bugging them for it and my Christmas present came 1 month earlier! hahaha For those who are still not familiar with MacD Histogram, you should check out this indicator, it's my favourite trend reversal reading indicator!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, November 03, 2006

Cracking the Stock Market Code - 3rd Intake

Learn the most effective Technical Analysis Strategies for the ever-changing markets in this one full day course (Lunch & Tea Break included). Our Trainer is a qualified Research Analyst from the investment industry. This interactive course (intake no. 3) will arm you with a 4-step trading strategy, obtained through practice, practice, practice.


Cracking the Stock Market Code
Building your First Trading Strategies (Intake 3)

Date: 11th Nov 2006 (Saturday)
Time: 9.30am-4.30pm
Fee: SGD180 *Enjoy a discounted price of SGD 162 for more than 1 seat booked.
Venue: BayView Hotel, 30 Bencoolen Street, Singapore 189621
Presenter: Ritesh Menon

COURSE OUTLINE

Intoduction to Technical Analysis
The course will kickstart with an introduction to Technical Analysis and understanding the psychology behind it.

How to identify Trends
We will first learn how to identify trends. Trend is your friend! Learn how to identify and draw a stock's trendline and learn to trade along with the trend

Support & Resistance
The core of technical analysis! No trader can ignore this basic but yet often times forgotten concept. Learn to identify all the support and resistance levels on a chart. Entries without knowing where the support or resistance are risky.

Price Gaps & Volume Analysis
Learn to identify the different types of Gaps and how you can trade them. The importance of volume in analysing the charts will be taught throughout the course.

Moving Averages
Learn one of the most popular trend indicator and how to determine entries & stops using moving averages.
Strategies include price crossover with Moving Average and Moving Averages crossover. Do you also know moving average can be used as a support and resistance?

Candlestick Reversal Patterns
Stock price goes up and down the chart every day. We will show you how to identify these turning points of a trend through Candlestick Reversal Patterns

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator & MacD Indicator
Learn how to make use of these 2 indicators to identify entries and stops. They can also be used to identify Bullish or Bearish Divergence which signifies major turns on the charts. A must know for indicator study!

How to determine market direction
Knowing where the general market is heading gives you the edge in trading. You will be able to avoid buying high and selling low.

How to identify the start of Rotational Play
We have seen how sectors in the market rallies one after another in what the industry call rotational play. Learn how to identify which sector is in play and how to identify the laggard sector!

How to select the right stock
Ever wonder why are your holdings not in the top gainers list? Why did you miss out the big runner and bought a stock that refuses to rally during a bull phase? We will show you how to select the right stock out of the hundreds listed

Money Management & Trading Discipline
No trading system is complete without Money Management and Trading discipline. This section will complete the formula by sharing how to manage your money and be a disciplined trader

A 4-step approach to identify the next profitable trade


For more information about the above course please visit:
http://www.chartnexus.com/events

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Within a stone throw away from record high

I tried to go short on Nikkei and failed on Tuesday. Bought at 0.255 and sold at 0.240 on Wednesday. The rebound in nikkei was weak and it went soft after briefly crossing into positively. Recognising the weakness and my eyes on Nikkei breaking the 16,200s support, i bought the PW. Tuesday ended with my PW slightly in the red. Wednesday opened perfectly with Nikkei down by 100 points, but things were different after 1 hour of trading and once again i saw Nikkei trickling upwards. After deliberating for a few minutes, I decided to cut loss on my Nikkei short. The logic is simple, human are driven by fear and greed in the market. If Nikkei is really bearish, the selling would have feed on itself with many people dumping due to fear. However that was not seen and it serves as a warning to me.

Current Holdings:

ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.17

Midas is a stock i will be looking at. Breakout of $1 with volume caught on my stock screener.

We had a flush on last Friday and Monday. Last 2 days of actions showed that buyers are still willing to step into the market. Gosh! Why the bullishness? We easily closed the gap down on Monday. This gap should now act as a support level for any pullback. Or should we go down tomorrow, this gap will be a resistance. Property sprung to life. This is 3 days after I took profit on my Capitaland. Damn!!! haha Overall, we are seeing buying accross the board which shows strength.

Dow Jones could be supported at the highs because of the elections next tuesday. Can you believe it?? At the point of writting, Dowjones is up 40 points! Another good run tomorrow? I'm just glad I still have stocks in hand and has stayed clear of my shorts. Cheers!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Market Massacred!

As anticipated, market gave way. I did what I had to and cut loss on ChinaSun, bought 0.775 and cut at 0.675. Shit happens in life and it happens in the Stock Market as well. Of so many stocks, ChinaSun has to be one of the worse hit by the bears today and most importantly, i must be the one holding it!! haha! I didn't like the heavy volume selling which broke the support cleanly. Only common sense is to run first. Losses are part of this game. I had learnt to take it in my stride.

Looking back, if I had not sold Capland and HSI for profits last Friday, i will be looking like a damn fool. This was exactly what happened in the old days, where I hold on to stocks greedily and hope for more profits. Dudes, in the market, one need to grow up fast. You simply cannot repeat your old mistakes all the time. Remember what I said about ChinaStocks last week? If your portfolio is made up of 50% China Stocks, i'm sure you are bleeding badly. This group of stocks never fails to stun investors with nasty losses.

What about BioTreat saga?? He say someone forged his signature? He only know today?? What has he been doing? Company's developments, share placement, he didn't know anything about them? Is he basking himself in KTV everynight? Keeping scores of misteresses? No wonder BioTreat is "sai" chwee.
This is a grim reminder that we have plenty of second rated China companies listed on our bourse. Why can't we get the good ones like China Mobile, Bank of China and ICBC ? China's telecom market is huge!!! All we can get is one handphone designer known as longcheer... haha!


Current Holdings:
Time to keep a close watch to avoid another May'06 disaster. If anything, just sell first and look back later. This is your only insurance against huge losses.
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.17


Market indices direction wise, I'll be monitoring how support levels hold. If the rebound is weak, I will hoot Put Warrants...if support holds, I will hoot Call Warrants. Indices will be rocking up and down, it's grow money time!!! :D hehe I will be shouting at the shoutbox should i get involve with any warrants. Stocks, i will leave them alone for now....awaiting to bottom fish rather than catching a falling knife. What are the stocks to pick up? Of course good FA counters man!!! I will continue to ignore those kiching kurung stocks.

US market should be down tonight, inorder not to have nightmare, I shall not be bothered about the opening ! Let Channel Newsasia read the closing to me tomorrow morning. hahahaha!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

How deep will the retracement be?

A poor GDP provided enough reason for traders to take profit and halted Dow's progression into the uncharted territories. I checked and found Dow's retracement can test 11,800. On the hourly chart of Dow, supported near 12,000. Let us see what unfolds on Monday night. The poor GDP could be the catalyst for a decrease of interest rate by Big Ben maybe?

On the regional scene, HSI and Nikkei finished Friday's session on a weaker note. STI followed the footsteps as traders took profits in unison. I am one of them! haha I square off my HSI Call Warrants when the morning rally couldn't sustain and HSI was retracing along with the poor closing of Nikkei. This one is bought at 0.410 and sold at 0.475. Next trade was to close my Capland's call warrant. Bought at 0.170 and sold at 0.200. My reason for selling is because if STI is to retrace, Capland will definitely be involved. I will just wait for another opportunity to trade it again. Protecting my profits come first!

Current Holdings:
ChinaSun @ 0.775
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.17


I will be watching 2 levels of possible support for STI. 2686 and 2670. Pullbacks and retracement is only healthy and natural. With Dow's negative close, we should have reactions at the opening bell. Reminder, HSI is closed tomorrow.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

STI 2700 is a thing of the past!

Hello hello hello! STI 2700, who would have thought? haha There isn't much pull back before we break 2700 and that is really a surprise to many. As per my article last week, i am still fully loaded with stocks. While my anticipation of STI to break 2700 was fully correct! However not all my stocks moved. And guess what? My ChinaStocks are giving me problems!!! What's NEW??? They are damn tricky! Often times, they just give you a one day wonder. The more I look like China Shares, the more it looks like they are taking turn to rally. The rotation must continue otherwise I will cut soon. It is extremely risky to be buying anything at this level, if you must buy, make sure you are nimble. As explained in my strategy class, I noticed since 2004, there is a particular time each year where it is a must buy! Let us all be patient for now and I shall chart to your heart's content when i think i want to buy. Otherwise, i will be a damned fool for listing out stocks that I myself dun buy and entice you to buy.

This blog is my trading diary, things i learnt from my trades, i wrote it down. Hence no way am I paper Trading. By the way, i have been observing one guru. It is so obvious that he keeps quiet when he is wrong and that he only talks about profits and never mention the risk involve in a trade. An example, "if you have bought so and so warrant, u have now a 10 cents profit and if you buy 20 lots, it's $2k in a day's work." What about the downside? What if the warrants move against you and you own 20 lots? Dudes, if you are new to trading, always consider your risk/reward. Do not be blinded by quick money!

It's been a long time since I have charted for you, my distinguished guests. Tonight I would like to share Cosco Corp, TatHong and ChinaSun.


Cosco Corp: The volume today break out and price close into the all time high. The previous times when Cosco Corp acts this way, it continues to head higher. $2 stock soon? I certainly hope so! :D For those interested to know why I bought in the first place, you may check my July Archives.


ChinaSun: Did you see the obvious Downtrend? 50Ma is cutting 200MA soon and this will bring ChinaSun into it's bearish phase. Did you also notice a positive divergence? Or how the price is now at support levels? I think support is going to hold and 50ma will find 200ma a support rather than break it. If i'm wrong, i will cut.



TatHong: 1.15 was a great catchment area. There is also a gap support at 1.17 . the pull back with light volume after breakout was a classic T.A buy signal. Let's see if there is further upside. Obvious uptrend.

DBS, Starhub & Noble. What do the 3 stocks have in common? They all have CandleSticks Reversal Patterns. My XpertTrader pick them up using the CandleSticks rules that i created to screen for Bullish Engulfing and Hammers. Did I buy them? Certainly not! I am and always will be a honest trader with a blog to share. Just look around you, how many "gurus" or analyst dare to show their losses? Mostly keep quiet and hope people don't remember. When they win, they will boast how easy it is. Deceptive marketing I call them because trading is never easy! As for me, my portfolio is open for all to see and comment. I have nothing to hide. It is a open secret that it is how much we win when we are right and how much we lose when we are wrong that matters! Ok ok back to the trades. It is the dilema of putting on a trade despite market trending higher. We know it's going to be risky and hence I decided not to put on a trade. Today they simply rock the roof. So do we just buy when we have a T.A buy signal? Don't we need to consider market wisdom? Hmm.... food for thought.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Hari Raya Special - 股票必胜法


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Fully Loaded! Going for goal!

If you are wondering, why are there no articles? Let me explain, when I last blogged last Wednesday, market has been moving up for a couple of session and I feel a pull back should occur and I decide to hold back and wait for it to happen. It seems to be a wise decision because the risk/reward isn't great. The other reason was, it's the result season in US and I was busying loading up on call options and following the US news.

Let me refresh my positions:
ChinaSun @ 0.775
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
CapLand Warrants Strike 5.15 @ 0.170
TatHong @ 1.17
HSICW Strike 18200 @ 0.410

As you can see, I have picked up quite a number of stocks over the last few sessions. TatHong was picked up by a new rule i developed to screen for very light volume retracement. It's FA is fantastic and hence I picked up. I had wanted Hongguo as well but my queue at 0.715 was not done and hence I decided not to chase. But Hongguo will be one stock I will load up once i dispose my other China plays. According to past experience, it is wiser not to hold too many China Stocks. 1 bad surprise can cause accross the board China play sell down. But recent news releases are very positive for China stocks to a point that I have this feeling that china plays is being deliberately enticed to move higher.

Scrutinising my portfolio further, u will notice not all of them are in profits, but what to do? They refuse to move!! Especially MediaRing and SembKim! But once they move, I think will be powerful. I am not cutting anything as yet. Let us see what tomorrow brings.

As for my late HSI Call Warrant purchase today, I decided to go for OTM warrant versus ITM. ITM will have higher gearing which means it will move faster then OTM relative to the underlying. But this is a double edged sword. What happens if you get the direction wrong? It will move against you just as fast! Hence my strategy for trading warrants is, if i'm wrong in my direction, my warrants must move slower, but when i'm correct in my direction, my warrants will turn from OTM to ITM and it's gearing will be increasing! Nikkei's after lunch reversal caught my eye and I tracked HSI's futures after it reopens at 2:30pm. It indeed rallies from negative to positive and pushing 18,000 levels. My gut feel say wait for a pull back and to my pleasant surprise it really did! Dudes, when something like that happens, it means anticipation of market movement is correct and we should follow through on our anticipations. This is a repetition of my earlier HSI trades. Apart from gut feel, I had also studied the movement of DJ and there are many results going to be announced and of those, i did a research, should be positive. Also how the resistance turns support for HSI worked wonders.

For Market to tua rally, Tomolo headline, "Rice convinced Kim" a picture of them shaking hands. hahahaha

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Tech Stocks rumble

Tech stocks has been quiet for a long time. Today they started to breath fire. My XpertTrader scans for rotational plays showed plenty of tech stocks. GlobalTest, MemoryD, UTAC, Chartered, DMX, DataCraft. Buying tech stocks is never easy, highly volatile! My favourite would be DataCraft. Superb business growth, share buy back, yet the stock price has been in a depression. Weekly chart looks set to form a reversal pattern, price had kissed the 50ma.

As for indices, i am still waiting by the sideline. North Korea has added tension in Asia Bourse and one would expect high volatile movement. For those who had the guts, you may try when HSI rebound off 17,700s level, this level has been retested 2 times. 3rd time lucky? But upside is capped at 17,867 thereabouts. As for nikkei, 16,400 resistance turns support. Let's see how this support holds.

A key reminder, earning season is here! Lookout for stocks with promising growth!!!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Market shakes off Nuclear Threats

Underlying strength is bullish! Bargain hunters stormed the market after US ignored Kim's nuclear test. I picked up 2 more stocks today, ChinaDiary & Media Ring. Nope! I did not sell my first batch of MediaRing, i added more today. Both counters had registered high volume breakout and true enough, a scan on my XpertTrader confirmed that. From the list, I observed SPH had cut above it's 200MA! Sunshine days coming for SPH fans! 200MA support at 4.14. Also, I saw Datacraft beginning to be active! With a hammer on the weekly chart last week, if this Friday it closes with a white candle, it is a candlesticks reversal pattern on the weekly chart.

STI is within 18 points to 2665, the high in May'06! 18 points is easily achievable! We rebounded off the gap resistance turns support. ShowTime!!! Sheng sheng sheng!

Another thought, with splendid performance by Ezra, Labroy & KS Energy, will SembMarine starts to move soon too? hmm...

Interesting Results from XpertTrader Screening Rules:
Nearing or at All Time Highs
CGTech, Genting, HoBee, HongGuo, Jaya Holdings, Midas, Labroy Marine

Position updates:
Capland, MediaRing, ChinaDiary, Cosco

Sector in play:
Property, China plays, Gas & Offshore

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Market shaken by nuclear test

I would like to send my warmest regard to kim's mother. Ta ma de!!! I know market is looking for a pull back, but doesn't mean he has to be the catalyst!!! Now we won't know what he is up to next. Market will be cautious and very volatile just like HSI index today...swinging up and down in a single day. I have sold my Celestial at 1.59 (Bought 1.52 last week) when i first heard about the nuclear test. It is done to minimise my exposure to market should it decides to correct. Emotionally, i would hope to sell Celestial at 1.68, but i cannot let my emotions decide. I should know this very well. Especially during the last round where I had bought at 1.62 and the stock went to 1.68 and i allow it to retrace past me to sell at 1.51. Mistake in the market should not be repeated!

I would think the market merely reacted to the nuclear test and investors/traders took this as an excuse to book profits. Once reactions are over, bargain hunters will flock in, this will be the sign of a strong underlying bull sentiment. Something I will be looking out for. Otherwise I will be cautious. STI's pull back is only natural because we had closed the gap in May'06. A pull back to form a base will be very good for another run up. Let us watch what the market will be doing.

As for trading index warrants, I'm watching key support levels to be tested before attempting a call warrants. Otherwise, I will buy put warrants if we fail at the resistance again. These are the 2 areas safest for entry.

Due to the reaction to the nuclear test, tonight I am using XpertTrader to find out which stocks had declined with very light volume at 70% as compared to last 14 days of trading. Jaya Holding caught my attention. The price has been retracing without volume, i shall monitor for a base to be formed.

I then tried my candlesticks screening and found meiban and inter-roller. I will just watch how they close tomorrow and not trade them.

Position updates:

I still have in my holdings: Cosco, Capland, MR

Remember, do not give up on market just because it's volatile or bearish. The best opportunity is just around the corner.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

The bulls are back!

What a day! Actually yesterday was suppose to be as happening as today. Everyone was caught by surprise of the lukewarm response of Asia's market to US's historical closing. However the 120 points finishing by Dow simply changed the mood. The bulls are back! For the whole day, I have seen constant buying, firm price actions and any pullback is weak. Finally many traders & investors had started to believe STI is not bearish! But i'm afraid they took too long. I have heard many people giving up trading as early as August because they believe market should correct. By now we should all know, market has defied them. It is highly important that we trade the direction where the market wants to go.

I remember during my first class in May'06, market had just crashed, I have told my dear friends not to be discouraged! Market will go back up after the worldcup! I even sent my yahoo group a message in July telling them to stop watching football and time to catch some good stocks! For my critics, please read the May to Sept Archives before jumping on my back again. :P Then again in my strategy class conducted in September'06, I have shown my dear friends the chart of STI telling them there are still time to load up good stocks! I am not telling you all these to boast, rather, I hope to instill in you the confidence that in a bear market, do not give up completely! The leaders will soon emerge when you least expect it to and lead the reversal. Stick with the leaders and you will be amptly rewarded!

My shifu say to go light on this wave up the market. Reason is simple, plenty of people died around this top and one can expect plenty of selling to recover their money. Not only that, i always remember how i tried to ride into new highs and often times see my profits eroded with pull backs and corrections. Hence this time round, I unloaded a couple of my holdings to realise profits. The wiseman always said, "sell on the way up". Paper profits remain paper until I sold.

Position Updates:
Cosco Corp: Still riding For the record, bought at 1.31.

MediaRing: I know the price has been slipping, but i'm still hanging on, will decide again. For me, because I have multiple positions and my portfolio is nett positive. Hence I can still hold if
MediaRing doesn't act funny. Afterall, it's FA is intact.

HSI CW: I bought at 0.635 last week and unloaded today at 0.830. :D Song arh! So far, HSI has given me 3 rounds of solid profits. My strategy is simple, buy at support levels. Anything in between, don't trade! Have patience to wait for pull back. Direction is important here and choosing the right warrants with strike and time to expiry is important as well. This is shared in my strategy class, I hope you guys find it useful. : ) HSI may still continue to move up somemore...but it's only maybe. I remember AC asked me with a gain of 22%, why am i still not cashing out? That time, market moves towards my position and I had to bear the swings emotionally. Now, my plan is to keep milking this index and accumulate my capital. : )

DMX: Bought at 0.665 and cut at 0.655. On a rally day and DMX still can't ignite it's engine, I see no point in getting my funds stuck here and decided to move it somewhere.

UTAC: Bought at 0.715 and sold at 0.735. Tech stocks have obviously fallen out of favour and not in play. I will revisit another time. My job as a trader is make my money work hard for me and not get stuck in a stock.

Celestial: Got this babe when it tested 1.52 support recently. Upside is blocked at 1.55 and 1.63 for now. If China plays are in, this one surely will rock the roof!

Capland: Got the warrants for capland when it is teasing it's all time high.

It is highly risky to be buying right now. Please analyse extensively. For me, I will be waiting for a pull back to strike again. : ) Safer, easier to make money. Remember the all time favourite phrase, "When no one is buying, you buy. When everyone wants to buy, you sell to them"

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Ah Long Chasing Debt

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Market enters the choppy October

STI inches higher towards 2580, the big gap during May. STI at 2514 should offer very good support but 2486 should be a fantastic level to bottom fish...but i will run for my life if things turn sour there. Property again leads my volume screening. Looks like one of these days i will look to add a property counter to my portfolio. SPH's result should be around the corner. By the way, Dow Jones has been acting very nicely as it tries to scale new high. Pull backs along the way as it tried to make history. Our market has been pushing higher whole of last week, please expect pull backs. If the pull back touches major support lines, it maybe good time to load up!

As for Indices, my take is, they will open weak in the morning due to reactions from US market's retracement. The weakness should not extend after lunch. This is my anticipations. HSI key support will be the low it made at 17,277 or 17,300 thereabts. Major support will be found at 17,125.

Whereas for Nikkei, support should be the 16,000 levels. 16,141 is where the first resistance is.

From my XpertTrader screens, here are the interesting observations,

UTAC has broke 50ma support, price should rebound above the 50ma within 3 days, otherwise it will turn from support to resistance. Levels to watch, 0.760, 0.715, 0.705.

SinoEnv, Resistance level to watch 1.12, Support 1.00

SembKim doesn't look simple.

Silverlake, Support at 0.490, 0.470

Synear, 1.04 is the all time high.

I will be the trainer in the upcoming free XpertTrader workshop. I will be presenting key features and then introduce some of the XpertTrader rules that have served me well over the years. So if you are interested to automate your trading analysis as well, feel free to register for the free event.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Property Counters take the lead

No matter how i scan the market using my rules in XpertTrader, property counters keep coming up. I saw All Green a couple of times and over the last few days it really made new highs.
Today Suntec made a spectacular volume of 22.9 million. In theory, when a stock is at all time high, the supply of shares should be scarce because there are no overhang shareholders. This is a danger signal flashing!

Capitaland's pivot points are at 5.10 & 5.15
Cosco Corp 1.67
Keppel Land 5.05
Labroy Marine 1.72
JurTech supported by it's 50MA
Celestial supported by 50 MA
Midas supported by 50MA

Special mention about Tech sector...unusually quiet. Perhaps after Properties are done with their move, Tech sector is the next to lead STI?

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

How to borrow Money From Loan Shark

Like a Phoenix, Rise from the Ashes

Paper Plane

Monday, September 25, 2006

The calm before the storm

It was an extremely boring day at the market as many stocks drifted aimlessly. Cheapo stocks continue to hog the top volume. Some stocks were beaten down and Midas was one of them. I had initially planned to add Midas if the support at 0.890 holds. But it has gave way.

I took HSI Put Warrants this time after I detected hesistance in breaking new highs. In reality, HSI has moved up 3 days in a roll and hence any pull back shouldn't be surprising.

I added one more interesting stock to my watchlist, LongCheer. It was picked up by one of my trading rules in XpertTrader. Resistance at 0.865 turns support for now. Indicators showing oversold.

Many people are calling for the market to correct. So far market has been defying gravity. I continue to watch and so far nothing bearish has come out of it. Infact most stocks are declining without heavy volume. However, buying must return, otherwise the selling can be self sustained and continue in what we call constant selling.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Position Updates & Where is STI heading

Yo Yo Yo! I am back! After my last class for September, i simply threw aside my work and enjoyed my weekend. Feeling refreshed, I am back!!!! :D Huat arh!

Market is having mood swings and actions these days have been worrying. With stocks not going anywhere and caught in tight ranges, it can swing either up or down. Frankly speaking, downside seem to be more probable. STI has broke resistance 2534 on Monday but came down and close at 2520 on Friday. This pull back could be a close of the gap up on Monday and it's resting slightly above it's old rsistance 2517. Also there is a formation call the rising wedge, a bearish signal to be confirmed if we breaksdown diarrhoea style. I wouldn't turn all bearish on the market as yet. This is just a lingering fear on my side but I shall trade base on what the market is showing instead.

Alot of people has warned of a possible corrections due to the fact that ulu stocks has been hogging the top volume for days. Yes I do agree that I have read from the books and they warned that such scenes precedes corrections. However, I must say there are still many people on the side lines after the May crash so we might not be heading for a steep corrections. Market condition at that time was a staggering 2 billion shares traded. We are just about 1.2 billion traded on Friday. Retracement maybe, tua lao? Let's see.

Cosco Corp: Breakout at 1.60. Currently pull back to 1.63 with very weak volume. However possible shooting star observed on the weekly chart. This week will be crucial that no bearish confirmation is formed. Resistance at 1.67.

MediaRing: KBH has got a seat on PacNet's board. This should position Mediaring in a strong position for the requisition it proposed. Chart wise, support is at 0.340 for now and we are trading in a very tight range. Using Bollinger, I will see which side it breaksout.

DMX: Fundamentals of company remain competent, chart wise, support should hold and if it breaks 0.640, I will cut first and re-look at another entry.

UTAC: Breakout of 0.670 and retraced back to the breakout point. Volume however was not low and hence I will be paying attention to this. If resistance doesn't turn support here, I will take my profit first.

Nikkei CW: After a steep drop, I will be looking forward to a rebound to get out of my Call Warrants. If it does not happen on Monday, I will look to cut loss first.

As for my watchlist, I am watching Hi-P, Midas, MMI very closely. Especially Midas because it was captured in my oversold rule in XpertTrader.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, September 22, 2006

I lost control of my mental state

The week started off as what i had anticipated and my profits soared! However by the end of the week, my anticipation didn't complete a fairy tale ending. I thought this time i'm in for the big kill! But it was not to be. Throughout the week, due to the Thailand coup, market had reactions and my HSI warrants had a roller coaster week. While I was deep in profits, instead of feeling happy, I was feeling very unsafe. All through the week, my mind was on "should i take profit? What if it goes up further after i sell? what if the profit is wiped off by the market swing?". Yes, it was a slip in psychology. I was self sabotaging myself.

This is serious and not good. You can see I have not updated my blog for the whole week. Cold fingers looking at the wild swing of HSI, experiencing fast heartbeats and each night I would dream about how the market will move the next day. Totally not in control of my mental state. Throughout the week, I have this nagging uneasy feeling, I couldn't explain it. Deep in my conscious I knew I have been too biased to the bulls side and should the bears visit, i will lose a bulk of my paper profits. I was at times tempted by greed and driven by fear. The kind of internal struggle that almost put me on the fine thread of sanity.

Also, I have been too ambitious to kick start my training programs. Speaking almost every week of the month, I didn't had enough enough time to rest and focus on the market. I was simply over stretching my time and energies. Hence I have decided to cut back on trainings to free up more time to rest. The month of September has been really tiring and having not enough rest, I couldn't conjure up trading ideas nor have the energies to research past winners and seek out growth sector.

Now that I have squared off my position in HSI, it's like a big rock off my chest. I feel so much better with no emotional baggage. So that is what was bugging me throughout the week. Simply amazing, now as i am typing out my thoughts, i can feel the inner peace that was missing for the whole week. 本来无衣物,何处惹尘埃。 Livermore always said when comes to speculating, it is very important to keep your mind at peace.

I took time to really think hard mid day, and i decided to took profit on my HSI today. These are the push factors for me to act. For the record, Buy@ 0.750, Sell@0.920. Guess where did HSI close? 0.950! !@#@$@!! always happen! haha

1) Why should I risk 80% of profits for another 20%?

2) Nikkei had a big drop, DJ and nasdaq didn't had follow through in their rally.

3) HSI though close strongly, I cannot ignore the fact that it didn't perform a great rally after breakout. I have seen how indices when in the mood to party can at least rally for 2 straight days. This time round, HSI did nothing of that sort,
it is not acting correctly. As long as I don't give up trading, there will be a day i can latch myself to those moves.

4) I was not thinking with my head but began to hope the market will go higher. That is a sign of losing control to me. I was greedy for more profit and yet fear my paper profits will depreciate.

5) My friend reminded me not to be too aggresssive. Being a small account trader, I need to build my capital first. As my capital grow bigger, it will then enable me to take bigger risk in the future.

Ahhhh! It feel so much better after I type away my thoughts and feelings. I will be back Sunday night to blog down my anticipations! :D Huat arh!

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Get ready to rally!

Nikkei's strong closing caught my eyes and I went for the HSI Call warrants. My reasons for buying were, Market had a chance to really correct for this week but the underlying tone is firm with plenty of buying at support, many stocks refuse to crash. The weekly chart of all indices threaten to be bearish but most finish without bearish confirmation. Friday's night CPI was good, suggesting a soft landing of the US Economy was on track. Market will be anticipating an unrevised interest rate by Ben on 20th Sept. With US market finishing up modestly, I would expect HSI to open higher, but how it will perform for the day, remain to be seen. Oil goes lower and this could suggest more downside for oil-related stocks.

I heard Baltic rate is easing off, NOL and STX should benefit. But i rather wait for the results to be in and affirm. Nasty profit warnings from Bio-Treat and Magnecomp remains fresh on my mind.

Looking back on our STI, I think upside is coming. So far the rally has selling thus creating a very healthy higher highs, higher lows. The past week closed a small gap and rebounded off it. 2535 there abouts will be the level to test and break.

On my radar, I have got Capitaland, Olam and Midas. All 3 companies registered good growth and results. Chartwise, breakouts beckon!


DMX - I bottom picked this stock at 0.665 as it's close to it's 52 weeks low. It's recent result showed good business growth and it secures multiple contracts over the last few weeks. Chart wise, selling seems to be drying up. My target is for it to register another solid result and thus send the stock higher. Best is an international investment write some reports. Meanwhile, into the cupboard it goes.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Technical Analysis: Getting The Basics Right






The key highlights of this course is, it's designed to get you ready to trade the market with practical working knowledge about Singapore Stock Market. Determining market direction, rotational play and selecting the right stocks are knowledge you won't find in any foreign Technical Analysis books. These are SGX applicable! True experience from the trainer.

For more information on course outline http://www.chartnexus.com/events

Cheong arh!

Cheooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong arh!!!!

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Market looking confused

STI is trading near the resistance at 2517, covered the gap. Next target is at 2534, and we can expect the current uptrend to remain intact if we take that out. The shooting star that i am so wary of on the weekly chart will not have a black candle confirmation if we do not close near 2480s. Regionally, things are not so straight forward. Nikkei and HSI playing see-saw and STI is caught in between.


I cut my Celestial at 1.51 today, it had broke support at 1.53 and I just had to act. The stock closed at 1.53, right at support. With decent conditions of Nikkei, DJ & Nasdaq before our market open, I was anticipating Celestial to reverse. Gap up it did at 1.56 but move swiftly down. HSI didn't help matters because it is mixed and down whole day. I just wanted to avoid a wilmar on this one. We all know that Celestial can move up very fast, it can also move down damn fast!!! I once read that, cutting loss when your analysis is wrong is your insurance premium to prevent further capital loss. Nevermind the stock reverse the moment you sell because you have bought at the wrong time. 1.51 is supported by 50ma and the daily RSI seems to have rebounded for what might be a reversal. I will watch on.

Chinasky is an interesting stock captured by one of my rules in today's XpertTrader's stock screening.

Over the last 2 months, there are alot of wonder stocks, Midas, MMI, Jtech, Hi-p....these are what i am trying to own. Patiently await the time to pull trigger! It pays to follow them.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Learning Options Trading

Some of you may be wondering why I did not update my blog as frequently as before. I have been spending the last few months trying to decipher how to trade options profitably. keke Reading through books, attending free previews from the likes of Clement Chiang, Optionetics and Mcwilliams. I realise all you need is observation! Observe and understand what happened in the market and presto! Below a sample from my options virtual trading! keke Yippie next time can teach options for thousands!!! hahaha Joking nia la, you know i always share when i find out how! keke Just wait for me to ascertain these strategies and i will post for free! keke


Notice the big big profits from GS and LEH? It is what they call earnings play or gapping play. GS was going to report it's results on 12th Sept, i checked the charts on the 11th and found technically not bearish and buy an slightly OTM call option. This sound like gambling? Well I thought so too. But this is also what many are paying thousands for!!! Same for LEH, but it didn't move up just as much as GS. The rest of the trades are strategies, some are spreads, some are longer time frame naked calls. MSFT and Dell, these are dying trades. I purposely left them on to rot to study how much i will lose if the options expire worthless. With a hedge, the maximum loss so far held out. It means the theory is working. Now how do I exit my GS and LEH trades? I will use T.A to time my exit.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Gut Feel in Trading



Gut feel is actually memories of but you are unaware of these memories of past patterns in price actions and charts. Consciously you are not aware. So whenever a similar pattern occurs, you have a feel, this is gut feel. Gut feel is not emotional trading. The latter refers to making decisions based on hope, greed and fear.

Strategy Classes Review

Today i completed the last of September's Strategy Class. A big thank you to 40 of you who attended and I hope I have served you well. Sad to say, while we had so much interaction and fun last Thursday, today the energy level was obviously down by alot! I didn't think it was as good as the previous. I could see bored faces. Perhaps the strategy is too simple for you? My delivery is not convincing? Market tua lao today? Whatever it is, your feedbacks will be analysed and we will make October's Strategy class more exciting. If you have some ideas on what should be on the contents, feel free to drop me an email. The learning community that I mentioned in class should be up soon and I will personally guide you on this continuous education. For those with XpertTrader questions, it is no doubt a powerful stocks filtering tool, but it serves you no purpose if you don't know how to use it. Hence we will be having a site where rules used by me or others will be made available to you in the very near future, do look out for it. Once again, I thank you for the participation.

As for market analysis, US is rallying now, focus on Tech stocks, i keep shouting that they are firm they are firm. Now we know why, Nasdaq tua tua cheong! Now I would like to see my UTAC breaks 0.760 resistance. This should give me ample profits to feel comfortable. Celestial, resting precauriously on 1.53 support. I didn't cut yet as I see HSI finishing strongly and believe retailers are selling out of fear. With a sustained bullish sentiment tomorrow, i'm looking forward to Celestial to rebound. Cosco Corp, deep in the money, i shall ride on. So far i feel comfortable with it's price actions.

After studying options trading for months, i began to see similar opportunities in warrants. The utmost important thing is Strike Price! I will be using the gapping strategy for options for this coming results season. Currently paper trading showed that choosing the correct strike price works very well in directional trades. Basic T.A on catching reversal is profitable too. Options Strategies so far didn't work as well for me, because often time, the breakeven for strategies are too far away to be profitable. I thought about it, Strategies ensures you have limited losses. But if I were to place cut loss level when I put on a naked call or put, i will be fine. Another observation, T.A seems to work better in US. Soon you will read about US market instead! lol hahaha

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Sept 11; market in mourning

No joking matter, despite a higher closing on Friday by US, we are straight under pressure from Asia's leading bourses. The time to buy is here again!!! :D But don't get me wrong, i'm not asking you to jump straight in! Buying in recent weeks is definitely high risk, but with market heading downwards, soon it will have a reversal signal, that will be the time to pull trigger. Otherwise staying clear seems to be a safer choice. I always tell myself, it's either I buy near support or i buy at breakout under bullish conditions.

Nikkei's support is at 15,710 to 15,745. 38.2% of fibbo retracement from it's low in June is 15,521.

HSI's support will be at 16,894 thereabouts. However there are bearish divergence signal as seen since a weeks ago, it pays to be careful with your china stocks now. Otherwise, playing HSI PWs could be quite fun too. Please choose near the money strike price!

Crude oil has now hit US$65!!! No wonder all the oil related counters got whack today. With oil price hitting highs, I avoided plastic related stocks. Now it's time to take a look at them once again! Hi-P a long forgotten plastic darling looks to have bottom. I will be looking for signs of a bottom in this.

The most important is the Consumer Price Index report set for Friday, ahead of the Sept. 20 Fed meeting.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Major Market Indices Update

Last Friday when we woke up and saw US had another red day, certainly, it wasn't the best news to receive early Friday. But as we all know the market, expect the unexpected! haha Regional market didn't close down together with US and on Friday night, US went up. We should have an easier Monday. However my mind will be on the weekly chart of the indices. A reminder, we have room to fall without hurting the uptrend line. In an uptrend, we do not go up one straight line, there are pull backs along the way. These pull backs are great opportunities to re-entry.

You may want to consider one of the ChartNexus Events, Get the Basics Right conducted by industry expert. This is a comprehensive one full day course which will enrich you with the basics of technical analysis to read stock charts like a professional. You will also expect to learn how to read market directions, rotational plays and a profitable strategy.

Last week's near capacity strategy class was really an enjoyable session! In a room of passionate like minded traders, I felt so satisfied being able to explain my thoughts and ideas on the market, not to mention being totally exhausted by the flood of questions! haha A simple strategy using Candlesticks Reversal Pattern and Stochastics was shared. I hope you guys will find it useful. Not forgetting the simple warrants selection criterias explained, this should help to stop bleeding from trading the wrong warrants. Huat Arh!

In my 2.5-hour course, participants will be taught on how to understand, identify and use Candlestick Reversal Patterns with Stochastic signals to time their trades. For short-term trading, the methodology of proper warrant selection will be explained. As for my last class for the month, we still have seats. You may want to register and join us for the 12th Sept 2006 session.

HSI: Bearish piercing pattern found on the weekly chart with bearish divergence in MacD Histogram. This doesn't mean we will head into bear market. The reversal could just be short term. Nobody knows for sure. We will let market tell us.
Otherwise, there is immediate short term upside base on daily chart. There is a gap resistance to fill though.

Nikkei: Possible Hanging man reversal in the making on the weekly chart because we need the upcoming week to be down to form a confirmation. A bullish piercing on the daily chart formed last Friday for a short term upside. But should the bullishness continues, then there will be no more bearish confirmation on the weekly, good news!


STI on the daily. Take note of the huge space we can afford to retrace yet keep the uptrend intact.


STI chart on the weekly.

I mentioned about a possible reversal in Fungchoi and had monitored it's closing on Friday. The reversal formation did not happen afterall and I won't look at fungchoi as yet. I rather buy when it shows that it's reversing. Nevermind if I lose a few bids, as i know this few bids is my insurance against a false reversal.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Market will not Defy Gravity

As happy as I am with my current holdings, I must not slip into complacency. Although our market closed firm today, my mind was on HSI & Nikkei. Both closed sharly lower today. A quick check on HSI's chart, the retracement is still within what I will regard as normal zone because the support line was not broken. However, we risk a possible hanging man or bearish piercing candlestick formation on the weekly chart. This is only used as a guide because individual stock can remain firm despite index not doing well. Incase you are still judging your china stocks based on STI, please look at HSI as well. There is without a doubt at all there are room to fall in the market, the fall doesn't worry me that much, because in a healthy rally, there must be some selling. As long as support line doesn't break, the retracement can offer great opportunities!


Straits Times Index. Bullish cutover of moving average 100 and 50. But the RSI divergence is an eyesore.


ChinaHong looks like a breakout, but with HSI deep red, I will apply some common sense here. I will pull the trigger when the coast is clear. The other stock to watch out for will be Hongguo.

Tomorrow is the second time i'm stepping out of this cyberspace! Actually there will be more in the future as ChartNexus will be engaging me more often after my successful maiden workshop held in May '06. Back then, I thought gone case liao, so suay, bo organise workshop, market bo crash, send out invites only, market crash and I thought turn out will be bad! haha But 27 brave souls still made their way there and eager to learn! Same thing for tomorrow, I will deliver my power pack contents and you guys will walk away full of trading ideas! haha For those who are still considering, here's the link to my course outline once again, http://www.chartnexus.com/events/more_details.php?eid=107

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, September 04, 2006

STI tangoes investors!

We had a gap at 2520 and I thought that will be a resistance to watch out for. Now that we have closed around here, it's really nervous! Hang Seng broke key resistance and looks good to continue to lead the global markets. We shall see if this is a tiger head and snake tail kind of rally...keke


Fungchoi on the weekly chart. I will be waiting for a candlesticks reversal pattern by Friday.


I got into celestial today at breakout to 1.63 where the stock promptly retraced to 1.61 where I bought my lots. Finally it was great that it closed at a breakout volume and price breakout of consolidations. I sure hope this run up will continue. First barrier at 1.70 for now. A pull back may happen due to profit take, the volume on the pull back is important to determine if it is a fake breakout.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Market inches higher!

Fantastic! We closed the week with much to be relieved about! Major indices did not make a U-turn nor break down decisively. Economic data out from the US on Friday simply rock the floor and US closed higher! The much anticipated "tua lao" breakdown did not happen. Ladies & Gentlemen, this is the market for you. Expect the unexpected!!! haha Psychology of market has it that, when many expect it to do something, it will just not happen! It only happens when you least expect it.

I was busy preparing plenty of teaching materials for my upcoming course to be held in September. A great way to refresh my memories on using indicators! haha Does technical analysis works all the time? Well I was so naive back then to think knowing technical analysis is all that I need to scalp money from market. Of course I was wrong and heavily punished! haha The truth is, it doesn't work all the time. Picking the right stocks and the timing is as important. These are from experience. A much respected friend told me, "Ah Dec, if you are willing to observe what is happening, you will learn to pick the next move" Words of wisdom. We see all those expensive courses out there claiming to own methods exclusively to them. How did they arrive at those methods? Observations! Scroll through past charts, understand what precedes the huge movement. Most of the time, you will find that, the same conditions happen again.

China plays got market interest in late week. I did a scan using XpertTrader and many of these china stocks came up in the results. Tomorrow at closing, if they are strong, worth a *tikam* try.

Stocks to watch:
Chinamilk
FerrorChina
Hongguo
Luzhou
Celestial

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

The Secret of Trading

Enjoy!

Adapted from the Show "The Greed of Man" A must watch for traders! :D

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Market Directions

I have checked the market indices and here's what I think:

Nikkei: Support at 15,710, how nice if we can have a candlesticks reversal here.

HangSeng: Daily chart on support, it will be nice if it can do a candlesticks reversal. Otherwise, if close ugly, consider Put Warrents because on the weekly chart of HSI, we have a negative divergence with shooting star and black candle confirmation.

STI: Need we say more??? It will just follow global market..no need to see it's chart la! hahaha Ok ok... we are still struggling at higher end of trading range, downside more than upside. The only plus point i like about it is the shorter term(50) moving average has kissed the longer term moving average(100).

As for individual stocks, I looked at mine holdings only. It is Friday, look at the weekly chart and how your stocks will close and then you will know if next week gonna be bad?

Cosco: Time to becareful as the weekly chart showing possible hanging man if it closes ard 1.60.

MediaRing: As long as 0.340 holds, i'm comfortable.

UTAC: Suddenly tech stocks were not in favour. However, on the weekly chart, still looks healthy to me. I will still stick to my cut loss strategy as posted days earlier.

For those interested, you can join my mailing list using the Join Yahoo Group on top of this page. Just fill in your email address and click! Viola! It's that simple!


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Join Decipher's Mailing List!

Sample article from GrowMoney Yahoo Group:

"Hello people!

Results season is coming to an end. Today i'm going to share 1
trading idea that has worked for me. I wrote in my last letter to the
group dated on 4th July 2006 that it was time to trade and look for
companies that were anticipating growth. It worked!

Let us zoom into ....."



Read more about it by joining my yahoo group! :D

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Possibles or trap?


Celestial


Biosensors


MMI


China Hong

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Newton's law of universal gravitation

Livermore said, "Opinions are often wrong and market is always right". I remembered getting bearish about Hang Seng and was getting ready to buy the put warrants 2 weeks ago, that was my opinion and i didn't act on it until the market shows me it is turning. Last week there was a chance to buy the PW on Hang Seng when the shooting star on Wednesday was confirmed with a black candle on Thursday. I didn't execute my plan. I was careful, as Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and STI were pushing ahead. I remembered, it was easier to win when global markets showed similar signs. So this was a choice of, do I want to take the risk or do I want to wait for a better opportunity. I opt for the latter because from my experience, i know market always present another opportunity, i just have to be patience and wait for the signal to arrive. Trading inbetween often results in unneccessary loss. Nothing wrong here although I missed a great chance to profit. I remember reading this article about Trading Gurus, when their trading account grow bigger, they take lesser risk. My account is still small, I need to grow my capital so I must be careful in my trades and not take huge risk. If professionals are careful with their customer's money, why should I be a Rambo with my own money!

Stock Market showed that it is not spared with Newton's law. What goes up must come down. We had a great run up last week and today market just have to retrace. But the magnitude of retrace is pretty scary. Both my stocks got hit real bad and I had to assess the damage tonight. For a healthy uptrend, there ought to be recovery this week. We should not see another heavy selling day otherwise it will be deja vu May'06... Let us observe what the market is trying to do before we act on it.


Cosco: RSI looks to be trending down and if support breaks, price should also break. Fibbo Retracement levels are in black, last breakout point 1.51 should hold as support.


UTAC: Price retraced to Double Bottom (Green) pinnacle 0.715. A handle could form with low volume, but it should not retrace more than 50% from the pinnacle to the bottom of the double bottom. I will be watching 0.690 closely.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.