Monday, March 30, 2009

Day 2 of pull back

This is the plunge i had so much wanted to see since last week... it never came.. instead... it came right after i covered my shorts on STI. Truth be told, i do feel "cake sim" that i could have minimised the loss if i covered today. But is it possible? I did what i was most comfortable with last week... it truly looks like we are ready to burst through 1800 pts. I was also wrong about no catalyst that could plunge the stock market... out of no where JP Morgan and BAC said March was a tough month... despite just weeks ago said first two months of the year was good... crap? Add to that, Obama administration may ask the two of the automobile to go bankrupt.... the rescue fund is less than 200B now... not sure if they will ask for more... How to anticpate these news? But i will still be looking for the next higher low. The pullback today is pretty light in volume... it will be worse if the selldown is with heavy volume.


CRCT: Stocks hit 200-day MA, Stochastic overbought... bearish dark cloud cover.. entry price triggered... i went short early in the morning. Most of the stocks have reversal patterns on their chart following Friday's closing. Market opened with weakness and key component stocks tumbled. It looks like this could be the pull back everyone is wary of.


KepCorp: With the profit from CRCT, i shorted Kepcorp near closing.. Pretty bad price to get it.. but i just can't resist the temptation because it failed at the resistance once again. The plunge in crude oil fueled my interest in KepCorp.. If this is really the window dressing that everyone is talking about, then today may be the day where the market undress! Props and banks ran too fast, i thought it will be too risky to latch on to them. But it is important to monitor these stocks as they lead the market i noticed.


HSI: After a hardworking weekend, i studied HSI carefully... I didn't like the resistances overhead. I still carry a see first attitude, because in recent times, Asia react opposite of Dow. But with Nikkei extremely weak, I covered my longs at a loss and once again turned short on HSI. Technically this chart looks overbought... pull back is imminent.. if it rebounds here back above 14k... i need to take a break from trading HSI.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Retracement or start of reversal?


STI: Many many gaps to play... The one at 1664 is where it confluences with Fibo retracement... wah i wonder should i try a long there... majam the retracement also has meat to short...


HSI: I longed HSI in a somersault action trading upon the breakout of 13.9k... the rally fizzles out around 14.1k. I read Dow's Thurs night rebound correctly and wanted to sell at the usual morning gapup. However, HSI not only did not gap up, it trades flatly around 14k to my disappointment. No wonder they say expect the unexpected! Currently there are two overhanging downtrend resistance line to be wary of. Once we clear that, 15.8k should be within grasp. How does HSI falls from here? Any catalyst? Yes. G20's statement will be a market mover. Not to forget, window dressing should be over by Tuesday. Any plunge in Apr has to be taken seriously. No doubt alot of people already compared MAr'08 recovery to this one, but we ought to be careful of the bank's reporting in Apr.



HSI: This is the other reason why i long HSI... it has broken the 20-week MA. The possible nightmare would be HSI to close lower and whipsaw me.

I also took a long position in NYSE WFC... i notice the recent rally in Dow was not lead by banks... banks were taking a breather, consolidating after the strong surge. At this point in time, i still cannot identify if it is a healthy retracement because there are no clear signs from candle patterns nor volume. The thing i wanna see happen would be, the next rally to be lead by banks again... because it will then become a typical bull market sector in play. Right now, they are all supported nicely at support levels and nothing looking bearish as yet.

As for Singapore stocks, indeed it is still early to take up my long positions. It is only day 1 of retracement. Recent pull backs has been shallow... i dare not short as yet. The last time i shorted at resistance plus candlestick reversal pattern, technically it was a good short and yet the market moved against me mercilessly. The stupidest thing is... i hesistated in cutting loss and act smart by hedging... at the next turn, i took off my hedge and nett short again... once again STI faked the turn and broke through to 1780.... This is where i know i am wrong in my analysis.

One of the way to determine retracement is using fibonacci... thus, i will be waiting at those retracement levels patiently... So far we did not see a consectutive 2 day retracement... let's see where it will lead us to. Also, as the index falls, my experience tells me to watch how the market absorb the selling... there are many times where the index fell but leading sector is firm.. this is part of the typical sector rotation. Thus, i will watch if banks and properties are at support and the selling well absorbed.. this may be an important clue that we are in a bullish market.

I also did some research on past market bottoms... the retracement is not always at 38.2%... in some cases, not even 20-day MA is not penetratable... too many variations... but one thing is for sure, along the way, it is sure to test 20-day MA as support and that is where we can go long. But got to wait... the question is, do I have the patience to wait? How about shorting to benefit from the retracement? Especially the gap is some distance away.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Breakouts akan datang

I stuck to my plan today. When Nikkei and HSI broke the resistance which i had determined, i decided it is time to cut my losses on my STI shorts.. i was wrong because the market made no significant pull backs. I cannot simply stubbornly wait for the pull back... market doesn't listen to anyone... instead, i have to respect it and go along with the flow. I cut my STI at 1750 and somersaulted my HSI shorts at about 14,000 points. Is it painful to cut loss? I be lying if i tell you it is not painful and i cut like a robot. Truth be told, i have lost a huge bulk of my profits built thus far from the last plunge. I won't lie to you or try to boast that i am ok and lose little. If i cannot accept my mistake and learn from it, i will never improve. If it's because of my fear of shame that i try to hide, then i will never be successful.

Could i have covered STI yesterday? I would say no. I seriously think it was coming down at the resistance level. Hence when we trade into week high, i know i am in trouble and have to act. As for HSI, i'm betting on a resistance breakout which will act as support. I covered my shorts and turn long at 14k... if market continues the bullishness, 15.8k should be within days. J told me this week alot of banks in hongkong reporting results... ICBC was one of them.. again it's the same story... good start to the year... nan dao the banks turn corner? My friend warned me... it is only operating profit... they have not included write-offs and such.

Another reason to turn long is that i observed market in recent weeks ignored bad news and would rally on the slightest hint of good news. This made shorting very difficult. GDP numbers were out tonight and it was slightly better than expected. Not surprising we are up a little at this point. Simply looking for a reason to be bullish! Anyway, Dow has yet to break 7.8k... hence my HSI longs are not safe as yet.

I screen through the market with XPertTrader.... the top volume rule... wah alot of stocks akan datang at the breakout levels. Such has been the rally of late... so strong until we are back to test December'08 highs. This is where market may fail... tan lui chance is here again.. This time round, i won't be a smart aleck.. I will be looking out for two things... candlestick weakness or high volume black bars in component stocks before i dare short. How about trade breakouts? I will consider if Dow closes bullish and that we don't gap up too much. I will use the resistance turn support concept. But i must not be too agressive too as i already have a HSI long position which is just slightly in profits.

Some of the stocks which i like better are KepCorp, Kepland, Noble, Wilmar. Interestingly, commodities lead us in the Mar'08 rebound... it seems the same story unfolds once again this time round.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Nightmare

It is fast becoming a nightmare where the market keeps heading higher and higher.... every resistances drawn; cuts through butter like a hot knife. The type of retracement that i am wary off came true... shallow retracement.. I thought shorting STI is safe due to the slow movement... but over the last two weeks, the volatility is...mind blowing! This is the type of movement most powerful... pull back during intra day or making bery shallow retracement and hug the upper BB tight tight.... not a single resistance holds for long. Like i have mentioned last week, the worst case scenario is being squeezed to 7.8k in Dow and 13.8k in HSI... i am staring at these two levels now... I must say, although i am prepared to see these levels... nevertheless it is still a daunting task to contain my fear. I said then that this is my last chance that the market should turn down... if we burst through these levels... two things i can do... preserve whatever profits i have left in 2009 and run road, take a break.... or, i add another batch of short positions here thus risking all profits and may even hurt capital if we burst through.

Why don't i just cut and run right here and look to long since my view is market may head to those levels. Remember what Livermore said? Ask not where is the market heading but what would you do when the market heads there. I won't know for sure market will get to 7.8k or 13.8k when i was analysing last week.... but i have to plan what i want to do when market gets there and this is exactly what i am doing now.

If this is a bullish rally, i expect a normal retracement to occur, and that is where i can go long agressively. Why agressive? Because to me, it may be one of the rare opportunity to latch on early in this bull. I think we may see only 2 or 3 such opportunities from now to May... I am not 100% sure this will happen... but going by my experience, the pull back will be quick and fast as well... that is where i can look to cover my shorts... Lose small i can laugh secretly liao...

For those who care about poor Dec, no worries... lose money no lose confidence! So many years liao, this little setback i no put inside the eye. (不放在眼里) I have been through worst. Last time in this kind of market, that time was tua lao sai during the bull run... i was stuck in about 3 or4 positions... that one is really pain pain.. each stock at least drop 15%... wah! .. i cut everything and start afresh... this happen a number of times in my trading so far and each time i can still win after that... that's why my confidence never falters..

The main difference between that time as compared to now is, i know how to make back the money and more... that time still young and raw... read a few books and think i am Livermore number 2. wahahahaha

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Sticking to the plan

Alot of questions went through my mind after market closed. Why did i miss the rally? Why am i still holding to my STI shorts? Why i shorted so low? Why I bothered to hedge and not somersaulted to long position last week? My actions last week is pretty retarded on the hindsight... reading my past week's blog, i realise i sensed trouble with me short positions as early as mid-week. The only explanation i have is complacency. I have this tendency to throw money away after a good run. I had been profitable since Nov'08... March'09 looks set to break the trend. Though i may lament the loss in $$$.... but more importantly i know i need to get on my feet, dust myself and look ahead. My most immediate task is not to allow my profits for 2009 to be wiped out.

My hedge on OCBC worked nicely. However HSI's rally tipped the scale off balanced and i am nett in the red currently with 3 positions. STI shorted at 1560, HSI shorted at 12,900 and OCBC long at 4.53 . As always, here I am sharing with you my losing trades and the exact level. My intention is to share my lesson to all readers.
This is as real as it can get. I will never hide my losing trades or bad positions. Especially new traders. Losing and winning is part and parcel of this game. I am going to trade myself out of trouble, lets see if i can successfully end March in profits or smaller loss.

Alot of people have been asking me if i have covered my shorts. I have not. Remember the adage - buy low sell high? Now is obviously high... why would i want to buy back at high? Furthermore, some of those stocks are already trading at resistance. If anything, i should be looking to sell at this high. Of course i cannot blindly sell into the rallies. I need to see candlestick weakness... however at the same time i understand with such a strong surge, the pull back may be equally sharp. The timing here is thus important. I am sticking to my plans conceived over the weekend.

I won't burn a big hole because of my OCBC long. However what i am contemplating is a buy on dips strategy for this week. There should be dips during intra-week especially after a strong Monday. But there are two types of dips... either shallow or those normal retracement. Last week we saw a shallow pull back.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

My trading plan


STI: What is wrong with STI? While i manage to short HSI correctly, i am feeling the heat here being squeezed. In short, my current nett position is "eat pig, pay dog". Win Hsi pay STI... pui ah! With Dow and HSI closed lower for the week, how on earth did STI draws such strength on a Friday. I think at most i will be squeezed to 1630s and it should turn... meanwhile, if it happens, i have longed OCBC. U must be blur... why on earth i go long a stock despite having shorted STI? Let me explain: My opinion is still for STI to fall. But i can't sit idle and watch myself being squeezed. Hence i long OCBC. Scenario A: If STI really goes to 1630, OCBC will cover the paper loss of my shorts from current level to 1630.... not all but most of it... If STI turns down from there, i will cover my OCBC and turn another short on STI and bet that we fall like humpty dumpty from there... and this is how i can cheat death. It beats staring at the STI cheonging up and suffering from total confusion and paralysis. Scenario B: STI tua lao sai on Monday. My OCBC chao tar, but my shorts on STI makes... eat pig pay dog... but the important thing is, it is a major turn, and STI falls beyond where i shorted and lower. Then i will be nett profitable. Including of my shorts on HSI.



HSI: HSI may turn lower. The 50-day moving average has resisted HSI in Feb and last Friday we had a bearish candlestick confirmation. If the hanging man pattern is not hung on Monday, then we may see higher. What's more, Stochastics turning down from overbought, the odds is stacked in my favour... lets not forget the 4Green1Red? I'm just glad i have a short position here. If it crashes through 12.4 k, then it will be bery perfect!


Dow: I never expected 7.5k to hold well as a resistance. It coincides with Ah Ben saying there is no clear strategy to slowly unwind an instituition. My hedge on Thursday night didn't work out. I have set a profit target slightly above 7.6k based on the hourly chart, it fell short by 80 points before it closed -80 points by closing. keke I set alarm at 3:30am... 4am was the closing.. Before i slept, i told myself if market doesn't close green and end up red, it could be the turning point. Hence i cut my long and lose small first.... thinking next morning ho say liao... mana zai, STI goes higher and squeeze me!!! This despite HSI diving down... I took half my HSI profits to ease the STI squeeze. Back to Dow, Geithner is going to reveal the plan on how to buy back toxic assests, i think this will move market. I must watch how market react to it. As of now, on the weekly chart, there is somemore room before we hit resistance. That is where i feel the risk reward to short is higher. Then why the heck i short STI so early??? Greed! I tried to act smart by anticipating an intra-week pull back which never happened. Who am i to tell market what to do? It's funny how i know i shouldn't do something and yet i still do it. I convinced myself that i have profits to risk and would risk small... why would i even take risk? I better wake up my blardy idea and not keep wasting money! To long... if Dow survives the next plunge near the 20-day thereabts, this is where i will cover shorts and turn long.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Dow to test 7800?

I had never expected my sti short to be worse off than hsi. Hsi is struggling near 13k and my shorts still look safe for now. But i can't say the same to sti. The strength of bank sector seems to be proping up sti as i had to plan my exit strategy. i began to doubt my opinion of an intra week pull back. More so of the reversal. It really looks like we are gonna head north somemore. No doubt we have been up several days and market may pull back, there is no stopping of the market to extend this rally till those major resistances. I feel really uneasy abt my short positions because it seems like i am wrong and is too early.

I painted two scenarios early in the week, one of which is that we should see an intra-week pull back... this didn't happen. Thus, the next scenario of the market making shallow pull backs and edge higher is happening. This may mean last week could be the key reversal. As of now, there is no catalyst for the market to plunge but on the contary, plenty of bullish statements and news from Wall Street. Buy dips time?

Thus i went long on dow. My plan is tonight we may see dow rally again and if so, 7.8k looks a possible target. Hence i will take my long profit during new york time. This will allow me to lock in some profits to withstand the gap up tomorrow morning if any. An ideal scenario is after i take my profit, Dow tua lao sai and tomorrow Asia sell down! :D Then i end up nett win both ways. haha

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Retracement or Reversal?

I shorted the market because i want to bet on an intra-week pull back in the markets. Pull back is imminent in my opinion because of the strong surge last week. Now the question is, whether this is the reversal to continue the downtrend or a normal healthy retracement. I won't know for sure as yet. But if my money is on the turn down, if it's the reversal, then i would have shorted at the high and a very good position. If it is just a natural retracement, then i will cover back with small profits or near breakeven then i can somersault to long the market.


HSI: A very nice bearish candle right at 50-dma. However there was no confirmation. I shorted at 12,900 level and am now being squeeze about 200 points... a very uncomfortable feeling. I wouldn't cut loss here because i am along the primary trend and it is at resistance. Dow overnight closing rallied 172 points overnight and despite that, HSI only humbly climb 200 points and i think this is weak. Furthermore with each passing day, Dow may pull back due to the strong surge from it's 13 yrs low last week. I also find it wierd why suddenly all the banks are reporting strong start to 2009? Didn't they just make alot of noise about stress test and nationalisation? If HSI doesn't turn down from here, i think 13.8k may be the next level and it will be my last chance that the market should fall from there. Otherwise, it will be BBQ time....


Dow: How suay can i get? The bearish candle at resistance, classic weakness at resistance. On theory it requires a black candle as a confirmation... instead what was staring at me is a big fat white candle!! ki si lang.... it doesn't help when Nikkei broke 8k...


STI: This is where my second short position is bbq'ed... A classic sell signal whereby the bearish hanging man has a confirmation this time! Guess what? STI still resilient... this is a grim reminder that one do not apply T.A blindly. I shorted because HSI, Dow and Nikkei all are trading at resistance... although it may be bullish.. but if market is trading at resistance, if I do not short then when to short? The key to be able to pull trigger is by controlling your risk via the size of the position. Hence even if BBQ, so long mai hurt capital... just do it!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

To hoot or not to hoot.

You wouldn't believe how empowering i felt when STI rallied more than 5% on Friday. The timing of my STI long couldn't been better. It means my anticipations of the market is right. I didn't bother how much i made on the STI long or how damn right i was about covering my shorts, rather i am already thinking how much to hoot on my next trade. This is because if i am right about the market, money will follows. However i still lack the ability to trade with conviction. Otherwise i would have whacked and made more money. Yet at the same time, i know what i am doing is right. Because i considered risk and the size i put on is what i can stomach. This is my dilema for the past 2 years. Whenever my opinion is right about the market direction, i didn't make a windfall. Those were the time i wish i could have HTT. Remember i always wrote i never had such luck. Those times when i hooted, market always squeezed me. When i no hoot, the market proves me right. That's why i often complained i had to make my money by blood and sweat. I wonder if there is an easier way? The last time i hooted big big, a substantial profits was wiped out by the merciless market. Then i had to build from scratch again.... it sound familiar isn't it? The boom and bust theory.

For the record, i have covered my STI by Friday closing... basket.. after i covered, it rallies up by 10 points somemore! haha Well i shouldn't complain la, still good profits. My take is market may pull back after such a strong run, so i don't want to waste my profits. I am toying with the idea that once the pull back is completed, HOOT AH! Anyway looking ahead... after such a fine performance and especially the rebound off major lows. I think buying dips may be the best strategy next as we look forward to a rally. But i ain't sure as of now, i would need to see how the market trades the following days. Remember to form ur scenarios and observe if you are right. Say you expect A to happen.... if A happens, B will happen and most likely C will happen. Hence when A and B happen, you know you are right and C is where you make your trade!

I really admire this friend of mine who was once an ex-wall street trader, yes he uses Technical analysis but his money management strategies are really what made the difference. He can be dead wrong about the market but when the market turned, he can make back all losses and more. The way he trades is what i often read from those books, convictions. When he develops a certain feel about what the market is doing, he would whack. Otherwise he will spar sparingly. He rather be dead wrong than to win peanuts for being right in the market. Those times when he hoot tio seh...wah WINDFALL! But he also cautioned me that this way of trading should only be deployed when one is risking profits and not capital. This brought me to the point... should i hoot or not to hoot. Since the turn of the year, i have been successful in accumulating profits. Hence if i am to follow my friend's strategy, my next trade should be to hoot tua tua and go for the kill. I am still deciding... because if i am wrong, then i have to rebuild my profits.... anyway just a sidenote to my wife: you grumble that i don't speak to u often enough and always deep in thoughts.... i assure you that i am thinking of my next move, formulating trading scenarios and not thinking about the babe who sat across me on the MRT.... kekeke

I have this trading idea to share. Did you guys realise many china companies are being suspended? They would lay quiet for sometime and then suddenly just died and went into hibernation? Many of the greats has fallen. If you mention Ferro, Sino, GuangZhao in 2006/2007 that these companies will fail, you be the joke of the town. More to come? I picture this, the chng kay may have left these companies and leave them to die? Hence there may be another company out there whose charts will look the same as those before they were suspended. I dare not list those i am eyeing here because it may be seen that i am spreading fear. But for those of you who are hardworking enough, i propose you to do two things:

a. Check the charts of those who are suspended, you should see common patterns.

b. Look for the next company which has the same pattern. Preferably in the same sector. Remember my favourite principle in trading sector is, if one company in a sector is in trouble, it will drag the rest down.

Recently i was giving a presentation on XPertTrader to a group of people. They very much like to know how to make money trading live charts... making money during intra-day. Let me share this with you: Would you be happy to make say 2k per month and you only need to make about 10 trades a month? Or you be happier to make the same 2k per month but you have to trade everyday? This is the difference between trading intra-day versus end-of-day charts.

For those ChartNexus graduates who are coming home from elsewhere... i would like to remind you of the below phrase :

路遥知马力,日久见人心

Welcome back and i will see you at those FREE after course support! : )

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

My opinion is market to close higher on Friday

I had to cut my loss in Dow last night. No good... 7.2k would be a better short. I was too early and tempted by greed. Each time when i build up good profits, i tend to take risk... this is something i must stop doing! Imagine i shorted at 6.8k and have to cover 6.9k thereabts. 100 points loss... ouch! Must be NOL.... keep tugging at my Achilles thus affecting my thinking process. Even with Wednesday's closing, i am still not too sure where the market may be heading.

I painted two scenarios:

a. It was an intra-week rebound. If so, i would expect market to keep falling and the volume to be great. But it is not so. Thursday we didn't close too badly and some of the stocks remained firm. Hence Scenario A may be wrong.

b. This is just a rebound week and next week we will turn down. If it is a rebound week, by Friday we should close white candle on the weekly chart. But next week? How would i know if next week gonna close lower or higher? This i draw conclusion that we are near support.... the 52-week low support on STI, HSI and Nikkei with the exception on Dow. Hence if we are near support and the weekly chart shows a reversal pattern or bullish patterns, high chance next week we may trade higher. Thus, the risk/reward is in my favour. Of course i have to watchout for over head resistance. I must take note of Banks and properties... where are their resistances and how are we trading there. Another level to note will be the resistance levels on the indices. Here we are darn far from it hence the upside is attractive. Furthermore, base on recent reports, news on Citicorp and better-than-forecasted retail sales figures signal glimpse of hope that the economy may have stablised.

I had also covered my UOL short and turned one long on STI. I am betting on scenario B here. I think risk reward favours going long from here. I am especially excited that Dow closed doji after a strong 400 points advance. M asked me, why isn't the doji bearish. I explained, if the doji is at some resistance or support then it is more significant. At 6900s, it is not at resistance.
What about the psychological 7k? It is only a psychological resistance... from the chart, i am eyeing 7200s to be resistance and that is the level i am watching. This is also the reason i rather cut loss on Dow short because i do not want to be squeezed till that level.

With the above scenarios visualised... i formed my opinion on how the market should move. I have started a position in STI long. I wouldn't want to go all agressive as yet. But if i do see higher lows... that is where i seek my confidence and may go for the big kill!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Rebound lai liao!

The story of the day must be the fallen NOL. I just can't believe i miss it.... gosh! I may play act...pretend to be in great pain in office, but that's to create atmosphere nia... actually nothing la... miss lor it's ok. Like i said, it was the best thing to do that day. Just like today, i square off ST-Eng for kopi lui. I getting uneasy with this trade because we are due for a rebound and yet most of the stocks mai loke. Hence instead of seeing ST-Eng short becomes a loss, i rather take the kopi moiney.

As for UOL, i am still holding. I am still looking for a reason to sell which i have't seen any yet.

The intra week rebound i am waiting for may have happened.... Dow is up more than 200 points right now... As usual, those who are late in shorting will be BBQ'ed.... this is why i never liked to short on breakout, the pull back is almost guaranteed. Then can we long/short the next breakout since i said it's almost guaranteed it will pull back? Guess what? The moment you fade a breakout, it will break powerfully and squeeze you. Then when you trade along a breakout, it will pull back and make you go green in the face. Don't ask me why it happens, it just happens! hahaha

With this rebound, it will be interesting to observe those resistances on the index and the stocks.. maybe the chance to katek more is here... or the point of reversal?

After Wednesday closing, i may have a clearer picture.


NOL: What else can i say..... 隐隐作痛

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, March 09, 2009

Waiting for the rebound

HSI closed 11,400s.... NOL at lower end of $1.... Remember i closed both last week... If i look at HSI, i have no qualms about missing the extra 600 points. This is because Ah Seng and me are long time friend and i know after breaking the support level, usually there will be a retest as a resistance. I used to find CS reversals around here, especially if there is a gap. Like i said last night, i rather wait for highs to short rather than short after support broke. Let's see if i am right by mid-week and how high the rebound may go. But as for NOL.... really is #@$@#%#@$%#$ wahahaha

Finally STI broke the 52-week low and the same may go for Nikkei and HSI. At this juncture, we may head lower and then a rebound may come. This level is closely watched and may trigger massive selling.... maybe even the most ardent F.A investor may throw in the towel. Technically when such a support breaks, it threatens more downside but the rebound can be equally strong. That's why i opt to observe from a distance. We are already in the middle of a move. Any trades now i will be looking for quickies. The current price levels are too low for trend riding.

隔岸观火

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, March 08, 2009

Review of market directions

An amazing week had passed. Amazing because Asia is still hanging above the 52-week low while Dow is in a very nice downtrend. Each day market expected Dow to rebound and it does the opposite. I am beginning to wonder if Asia is going to break those lows anytime soon? I covered most of my positions leaving only UOL & ST-ENG short. You may have read... The moment i covered NOL... it really went down big time! Talk about timing! haha it never fails to happen ya? I am sure you have similar experience to share. For me, i try my best to ignore, i did what i felt was right at that moment because most of my profit targets are met and i see no reason in waiting for a rebound to chomp off substantial profits. Now with the profits built thus far, I can look forward to the next move.


Nikkei: Last Friday failed to crash through 7k... My short position in Nikkei is covered when my buy limit order was triggered in New York time. The 7k support just refused to bulk. Now on the daily chart, i saw a mini "W" and resistance will be about 7.5k... The bullish divergence on MacD is the reason why i opt not to ride Nikkei as yet. I find trading Nikkei index very interesting... not only can you trade it during Asia time zone, it is tradable even in Europe and New York time. This is because i think the CFD is on nikkei futures and not the cash index itself.


HSI: 11,800 is the support which looks to be tested in coming days. However, i opt not to short at breakout as i feel the risk to be caught in a whipsaw may be high. Thus, i will be lookin at 12.6k to 12.8k to be resistance since there is a price gap.

Lets see how Monday trades.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, March 02, 2009

The moment is here...

Shorting all the way from Japan to Hongkong and finally Singapore... how can i not be elated on a day like this. The pay back time i was pondering about happened. Nothing has changed. I applied what had happened in the past and it worked. Of course the risk factor need to be worked out. Actually i wasn't really that excited about the good profits this round. I am still far off from my target for the year. Also, it is only March... 9 months to go. There is this lingering fear in me that i may be caught by a rebound tomorrow and struggling to decide if i should take profits first. I had to be clear. This move seems to have just started. We broke away from the trading pattern last week where we remained resilient despite Dow's heavy losses. What happened today was, market simply gave way, rebounds were weak and most importantly we closed lower. The volume of this sell down is HEAVY.

Also, did you guys realise the last round of bailout doesn't seem to be working with many of those beggars asking for more money again.... nan dao is throwing money into the deep sea? Other than giving beggars money, are we running out of idea on how to rectify the problem? Interest rate left one more cut at most... They are fast running out of weapons!

The only regret is not able to lay my hands on the finance sector. Look at how they had crumbled. Property and banking sectors are my favourite to short in recent months. These two sectors are in trouble fundamentally. Hence if i am able to time my entry with T.A, my odds are higher. Singapore market is very simple to understand and trade.. the sectors involved are limited. Unlike US, there are so many sectors to watchout for. But in Singapore, usually you won't go too wrong to stick to offshore, banks, properties, S-shares, plantation, Marine. The rest of the stocks are just noise and sexy stories to confuse us.

Those who have always liked to go long... the chance may be here soon. As we are very near to multi-year lows, the odds of a rebound is very very high. I will sound the alarm when we reach those levels. Currently i won't dare say we are there yet.

NOL Update: Sharpen your knives fellow pirates.... tomolo we shall conqeur NOL!

On a more human and personal side.... I really hope i can wake up to see bloodshed on Dow... oh please... please don't rebound tonight... give me one more day... just one more day!

Nikkei last level to defend would be 7k, i expect some support there... but can it hold?? I would be damn happy if it gaps down to that level tomolo at open.... loon arh!!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, March 01, 2009

No guarantee shortist will make money on Monday


HSI: Ah Seng is smacked right between 13,200 and 12,700. The flattening of the 20 dma suggest that this may be a sideway market. It is getting very uneasy when the market doesn't fall from here. Shortists may be squeezed. But one thing i don't understand is, Nikkei and Dow has broken multi year lows.... why is HSI still hanging on? JiaBao shu shu got more good news?


NOL: The moment everyone is waiting for may be here. I am still holding on to my NOL. Only if 1.30 is traded then i would consider to cut. With Ma as resistance, Stochastics at overbought. The question most of us will be asking is, how low will NOL go? keke Frankly speaking, i hope we can see $1. Coz' then we can all celebrate!

Nikkei's rebound really spoilt my Friday. Remember i shorted it on Thursday because i feel the bad numbers may be coming in on US side and anticipated the week to close weaker. I had wished a follow through in selling on Friday to close the week firmly down. On Thursday night, i could have covered back with 200 pts profits when the overnight session looks to have confirmed my opinion. However, the Asia time zone traded in opposite direction as compared to the night session. It seems to ignore the overnight weakness in Dow. I may have shorted Nikkei far too early.

I added one ST-Eng short on Thursday only to see it close higher. I got squeezed here. The short position was initiated after the price hits into a barrage of resistances....20,50,100 MAs... on the weekly chart, if i am right about this short position, it should not trade above 2.40. Otherwise, that is the level i have to reconsider my shorts.

I'm still holding on to my HSI and UOL shorts. So far i haven't been wrong about the direction of these two charts and hence i shall stick to them. With 5 positions on the short side, i would need a black monday to make good profits. With Dow closing below the 13 yr low, it's not a guarantee that i will see profit on Monday. This has been so for many of the trading sessions so far where we gap down only to close higher. So far, we are like HSI still holding off the 52-week low. Many stocks are threatening to break that level. Will we be able to rebound from that low and not break it? Digging deep into my memory, i do not see us any different from Dow. Usually Dow leads and when there is a de-couple, there is always a big pay back time. The question is, do i want to bet that history will repeat itself? Can Dow rebound from here? If Dow rebounds, then surely STI will be able to hold off this low. But if Dow crash further? Surely the catchup play will be on? How about the Merlion omen? Lightning of all place strikes the head.... Some say it is a bad omen, while some argued not to be superstitious... Or mi tuo foo....

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.