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Free shoutbox @ ShoutMix Featured VideoWednesday, November 04, 2009Supports are still holding
Hello everyone, i'm sure you have noticed the decrease in frequency of me updating on the market. To the minimum, i'm trying to update at least once a week. This is the best i can offer as i no longer have the energy to multi-task so many things. Thus, the weekly update would be the most significant as we look beyond the daily noise. There are many methods to make money in the stock market, some like the excitement of intra-day trading, some may like to contra but i like to ride trends and trade according to market directions.
Many months ago, I was busy shorting a bull market at it's infancy stage, each time i covered my shorts, i would often time have to turn long to cover back my losses. As soon as the market turns soft, i would try to short again. In short, it is by far a "eat pig, pay dog" experience. Few weeks back, there was a Saturday night where i spent hours reading my trading diary in 2006... and i saw how i learnt from the market and what were my mistakes. One particular obvious way which i made the most money was from riding the trends of strong sector. Not only that, my game plan was solid as i build a portfolio of stocks from leading sectors. Fast forward to this year, i was more of a maverick. To be honest, i even traded FX earlier this year. Yes i made money from it but my eyes were on the screen for more than 16 hrs a day. I have to watch my positions from 8pm to 11pm... then wake up at 4am to make sure the market didn't suddenly turn against me. On active nights, i will be watching it till the wee hours. Months later, i begin to question my lifestyle. Did i enjoy the experience of following HK, SG stocks in the day time, then US market at night? As for FX, it supercedes both time zone starting at 2pm. My answer is no. It was so laborous that it killed the fun factor. In anything we do, the fun factor must be there, otherwise we will not enjoy it. I made my money from the stock market before and i know how it feels and how it is done. It certainly didn't feel this way when i overtraded too many markets, too many instruments. Thus i thought it made sense for me to do what i know best - stocks. One of the reasons i like trading the stock market is, I can still enjoy life while my money grow in the market. I can be out the whole day either leisure or business and not worry about my positions. This is the benefit of my method. It is not a get rich quick method but a consistent method to grow money from the market while having a healthy life outside the speculator in me. Orite, lets talk more about what you like to read most - the current market. The above is just an avenue for me to share my experience which may save you from a few obstacles in trading life. I am still vested in Hyflux and CDLHTrust. Like i say in the last two posts, so long the support of broad market doesn't crack, it is still a bull market to me. The index has to correct as the chart looks bearish, but i notice majority of the stocks are still there, nothing much has changed, they are only stuck in a range. If i want to play this range, i would rather long as close to support than to short at resistance. Because, in a bull market support will hold, in a bear market resistance will hold. You ought to have a view and trade it. Then the big question, why did i not add more positions? Simple! If i do not see both my stocks swing into deep profits, it means my prognosis is not correct yet. Why increase the risk by adding a third position? If the market proves me wrong, instead of losing 2 positions which is still kept under my money mgmt rule, i would have lost more than what my rule allows me with the third. Thus, in this market, my risk appetite is only 2 positions at most. But once they break new high, i will be hunting for the third purchase. Meanwhile, the waiting game continues.... I am waiting to see either of the following: 1. First batch of buy signals to rally to new highs 2. Resistance level of one particular sector cracked 3. STI at it's support and resistance relative to the broadbase market DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading. Monday, October 26, 2009Watching Property sector carefully.
STI went jelly legs but can i complain? At least we went the opposite of the "expected" sell-off after a horrid Dow closing last Friday. Things i like currently is selective plays are still alive. Bluechips though dead and quiet for some time but i can start to feel it coming. So long the supports are holding across most stocks, especially bluechips. This is a bull market to me.
As my title suggest, this is the one sector caught my attention purely on T.A. As we all know, the recent news about the property sector is prices are softening. Today i saw how nice Capland and Citydev moved, i cast my eyes on Hobee and Hongfok. Both stocks came up in my XPertTrader screening. However, i am seeing mixed trading from last week's results and thus this is inconclusive if we are breaking higher. The only consolation i seek is STI is above 2700. It will be interesting if i see the prop sector leads STI convincingly. I am still holding on to CDL and Hyflux. Nothing uncomfortable abt the stocks yet and i am in no hurry to sell. Perhaps when either one swings into deep profit, i shall offload the underperforming other. Which will allow me to quickly snap up the next opportunity. DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading. Sunday, October 18, 2009Look out for the next hot sector
Stubborn 2700 was taken down finally last week. It is highly important to me that we stay above it this coming week. What we are seeing now is that it is coming down to test the previous resistance as support. Faith will be tested. Should investors sell in earnest, then it may bring us below 2700 once again. What i think is we need a strong upward movement motivated by a strong Dow to set us up for an uptrend. Plenty of important results are up next. It seems like companies are continuing to beat estimates. This sets me thinking....
I have one trading idea to share. That is to search for the sector which delivered the most solid result last reporting quater. Their charts may be consolidating now waiting for the next annoucement and we must beat the market to it by discovering it and buy it first. For i notice, before the result is anounced, the share price may have already rallied. I am still holding on to my CDL and bought Hyflux during last week's weakness. I akin Hyflux's movement to be that of a healthy retracement to test resistance turn support after A-Triangle breakout. CDL though still on an uptrend and from the charts, nothing too bearish as yet. Keeping my fingers crossed that Monday's weakness will not be too large a magnitude. If it is just morning sickness and afternoon glory, perhaps, it is a bullish sign. The hunt for the next hot sector is on! DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading. Sunday, October 11, 2009The double top feeling
What do you see in a market when they rally on lighter volume? Especially if they retest the previous high on lesser volume? With major dow components reporting results, this could be a turbulent week. According to the news, market is looking for better revenue and not just better profit margins from reducing expenses. It will be very obvious if i see a candlestick reversal pattern right at this level. It will mimic summer'08. Financial shares seem to be weak and no sign of life as yet. Properties still lacklustre.. they exhibits the rebound with lower volume mostly. With these two sectors resting.. it's no wonder we are still shy of 2700.
If you look at STI's chart, each day we gap up only to close weaker. Is this persistent selling? If we don't stay afloat 20MA, this may be where market test 2520. Otherwise, i will take the next higher low as another cue to add more long positions in this bull market. My CDL finally broke higher. I set my sight at 1.80 and applying a trailing stop incase my double top premonition happens. I am still on a lookout for my second trade. Business travel is taking alot of my time this month and hopefully when the signal comes, i am at a location with wi-fi. GrowMoney Quickpicks ChinaEratat LionAPac I found the above stocks with good trending traits. But fundamentally, i don't see what could be the catalyst for it to go higher. I read a trading magazine lately and it said 50% depends on market direction, 30% on sector/industry and 20% is picking the stock. Thus, the two stocks above... actually i don't see any reason for them to head higher other than from charts. Though at times, charts are painted by CKs. Thus i prefer to trade stocks with fundamentals which gives me a safety net. DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading. Sunday, October 04, 2009Finally it happens; 50-MA next
Alot of people has been asking where am i... why wasn't the blog updated. I think September summed it up very nicely, boring month! Over the last 2 weeks, did the market really moved? I think not... most of the stocks are like what my friend aptly described, vampire kind of movement.. jumping at the same spot. Thus i adopted a wait and see attitude, quietly observing what the market is trying to do. In between, i found time to travel on business trips and doing some family stuffs. If i have no trading ideas, what is there to share right? Surely we don't want this blog to turn into a travel blog? haha
Like i said in my last update, unless i see my CDL makes money, otherwise i shan't add on. It doesn't make sense to put good money after bad when the obvious was i didn't get the direction right. Though i must admit, certain stocks look to be luring me to put on a second trade. But i was wary of the after-effects of the bearish divergences which was so obvious in alot of charts. Alas, with last week's mayhem in the market, looks like it is the correct choice afterall. Though i didn't make money with that, it gives me confidence. The confidence that i know this game afterall. I found myself feeling more frustrating without a correct market opinion than losing money. This game has taught me that, every loss is a lesson learn and an insurance against bigger loss. However, once my opinion with the market is in-sync, that is where i know the money will start flowing in again. Looking back, although i grumbled about losing back this year's profits to the market, there is something to note here, while i took 2 months to build it up, i lose it over 7 long months. This reminds me of the an advise i read from a book, it goes like this... "In trading the financial markets, it is important to find a strategy that allows you to still make money despite being wrong 70% of the time." It makes sense doesn't it? How easy is it to win all the time? Or even 50% of the time? I hearsay, if you can win 50% of the time, wall street will queue up waiting to hire you. So if it's easier to lose than win in trading, then shouldn't we come out with a method to still make money while being wrong most of the time? I am now ready to look forward to the next trade. Volatility is expected to pick up in October and i am tempted to adopt the strategy of selling into the rally since i see no reasons to be long in October where everyone is warning of a brutal month and surely this may affect buying sentiments? How about corporate earnings? Some of the good numbers maybe proped up by cutting down headcounts? I remember sales revenue ain't that good in the last report? It's just that, things are not that bad. With a good mix of good and bad econs numbers over last week, is this a hint that the quaterly results will surprise to the downside? I cannot place my bets based on speculating the results... thus i have to rely on charts. As they were just beginning to break support, i am observing if they are gonna stay firmly below it as i do not want to be whipsawed. I set my sights at 50-day MA for now... it may act as a support. Index are still showing higher lows thus, i won't short for now and rather, i am looking to long. That's why i am still keeping my CDLHTrust - my only long trade. The next thing i am waiting for would be the 4r1g signal. That is my first sign that market is attempting to turn upwards again. Now if the above didn't materialise, then we would have formed the early stages of a downtrend with the classic lower high and lower low. Usually the component stocks would lead the way in the fall. Thus watch their support levels for clues. DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading. Tuesday, September 22, 2009STI tries to scale 2700 once again
In the previous 3 attempts, STI failed at 2700. In what looks like a Ascending Triangle, amazingly we are gonna try it for the 4th time. Will it be 4th time lucky? Indeed market has been rather sluggish these days. I rather wait at the lower range then to get caught at the high again. The last sell-off saw me scurrying for cover. This time round, i picked a short long and covered my HSI short position at a loss. I thought i would be killed after 21k broke out, looks like heavens gave me a chance to run and i gladly did so.
Of the list i posted last week, the stock i went long is CDLHtrust. Looks like my luck is changing as it is still near the entry price and slightly into profit. But i ain't gonna count my chicken before it is hatched. I wouldn't even consider getting into a second stock at this level. Market is sideway and i thought it only make sense to buy low in a trend, and if there is no trend, avoid buying at resistance is the least i can do. To me, i still have that thought about a sudden plunge in the market. But market as usual will not listen to me and so if it is still climbing, i shall cautiously thread along. I am currently keen to observe how those 20-day mas are holding. It is flattening and we are hanging precariously by it in many of the stocks. Of course not all stocks will fall. Selective plays are still doing very well. But i just don't feel confident to go into one as yet. I look at the list of screening results i gotten from XPertTrader... C2O, CH-offshore, Cosmosteel, Des studio, Metro, Mermaid, Falcon...etc.. isn't it a textbook warning of a interim top whenever market is lead by such stocks? Tonight i received quite a number of signals from property stocks. The last round they lead the first assault on 2700 but failed miserably. Nan dao, tomorrow they gonna try again? Like i said earlier, i am sticking to just one stock at this level. I do not see those obvious signs of a trend, and i do not see rotational interest. Without those two, odds are against me. I study with interest the chart on SPH tonight, all signs point to a higher price in coming days. This stock though slow has been very consistently heading higher. I shall continue to observe if it breaks the old high. Especially those stocks which are showing a change in trend, if they turn up successfully, then perhaps my CDL will break higher. DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading. Wednesday, September 16, 2009Beware - Do not own the stocks i am eyeing
Tonight I present something that has been missing from this blog for a long time - GrowMoney QuickPicks. Please pay special attention to these stocks because these are the stocks i am eyeing. At this stage, you do not want to hold the same stocks that i am in because i am not at the best of my luck. Thus good luck to you if your stocks is one of the following.... haha
GrowMoney QuickPicks Ausgrp BakerTech CDLHTrust F&N China Sky Epure JiuTian LiHeng Other than F&N, the rest are pennies. I think the play is still in the pennies. The fact that the bluies are not running is still a warning to me. My strategy is to long just one of them.... this first win is what i need to know that i am on the right track. China pennies are particularly cute because of their National holiday is coming and also upon seeing HSI breaking key resistance. Having said that, isn't it wierd? With FTSE and HSI breaking into new highs... Nikkei and Dow still ai mai ai mai.... Bluechips really is lacklustre as we are heading near Mt. 2700... nan dao a big pop up is coming? I was trapped in the shooting star last week when 2700 was pierced. I went on a buying spree in an opinion we go to at least 2750... alas it was not to be and i have to run my longs and suffered a blue-black eye. If we pop up again, i will STILL try! Yeah, the rule of the game is, when i lose, i lose small, when i win i must win big which will cover most of the losses if not all. Thus i cannot miss the next big run either up or down otherwise it tilts my equation. I do not need to sit by the sidelines as i feel i am still healthy to trade. I am still thinking objectively and do not hold on to hopes or losses. I know i need to stand aside if i begin to feel revengeful, despair, hopeless, clueless. I am still short on HSI and no new positions. I will cut my HSI if we do not see a sharp sell-off over the next few days. Bear divergence leh... nan dao i am so suay until bear divergence also work against me? Did i mention Dow also has one? The CPI surprises on the upside... if it was the old days, the market would have sold off... because it means interest rate hike may be coming... right now Obama keeps saying they won't pull out from the bailout too fast too soon... they say recovery may be weak.... now we are very fragile... so a hike is pretty remote.. or is the market running higher so that it has room to fall because a hike is coming? Are they going to risk inflation? DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading. 
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DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
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