DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.


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Sunday, November 29, 2009

 

Dubai shocker and what i will be doing

On this night, i shall write about my thoughts on the latest market shocker... Dubai to delay payment on its US$60B debt. Global markets had already been greatly shaken. STI will open Monday and it's direction is highly anticipated to be down, the magnitude is everyone's guess though. Next question will be... is this Dubai a non-event? Or a perfect reason for prices to pull back? Is this the end of the bull?

Firstly, my opinion on the fundamentals is, US$60B is chicken feed for UAE to rescue it. Surely we saw how the government in a concerted efforts print hundreds of billions in 2009? Also oil-rich state? How to go belly up? Then the news say, it's the repercussion that they are worried about. Hmm... recent years, i didn't read about any major interests in that city... they are neither key exporters or importers in global economy. however, as a green horn, i shall watch how the market reacts to it.

STI breaks 2700 points... should i be happy since in my earlier posts i had anticipated it to give way? Happy i am not because only the banks are moving higher. The rest of the sectors were lacklustre. In addition, my own portfolio basically at a standstill... near breakeven level only or sometimes swing slightly into negative. Like i say, if my portfolio didn't grow money, i know i am still not right as yet. What awaits me this coming week will be daunting.

Daunting because i have two choices, do i run my stocks? (SGX, CDL-HTRUST, Hyflux) or do i look to long? Maybe i should short? I am tempted to set up a very complicated hedge where i short some on Monday to hedge my longs. But i do not have the luxury of time. These days alot of travelling, you have a higher chance of meeting me in KL than Cityhall. Thus, i have decided to stick to my stop loss levels. If time permits, i will post in coming days. In time of chaos, only technical levels is what i can depend on for surely if i were to trade by opinion, i may bleed. So this takes care of my current stocks.

Now if this is just a blip the market is looking for, it is a glorious opportunity to load more into the year-end rally. If stocks do not breach my cut loss, and reverse from near support, the risk/reward favours a long. Even if i am wrong, the stop loss is nearby. But if i am right, the reward outweighs the risk.

How about shorting? Yes, i will not hesistate to liquidate my longs and turn short if those significant support levels are compromised this coming week.

Sorry that i disappoints anyone who is used to this blog...as recently, i have other priorities to take care of. If got good opportunities, I will update via here. If you are a graduate, do use the forum, i will give my two cents there more often.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

 

Supports are still holding

Hello everyone, i'm sure you have noticed the decrease in frequency of me updating on the market. To the minimum, i'm trying to update at least once a week. This is the best i can offer as i no longer have the energy to multi-task so many things. Thus, the weekly update would be the most significant as we look beyond the daily noise. There are many methods to make money in the stock market, some like the excitement of intra-day trading, some may like to contra but i like to ride trends and trade according to market directions.

Many months ago, I was busy shorting a bull market at it's infancy stage, each time i covered my shorts, i would often time have to turn long to cover back my losses. As soon as the market turns soft, i would try to short again. In short, it is by far a "eat pig, pay dog" experience. Few weeks back, there was a Saturday night where i spent hours reading my trading diary in 2006... and i saw how i learnt from the market and what were my mistakes. One particular obvious way which i made the most money was from riding the trends of strong sector. Not only that, my game plan was solid as i build a portfolio of stocks from leading sectors. Fast forward to this year, i was more of a maverick. To be honest, i even traded FX earlier this year. Yes i made money from it but my eyes were on the screen for more than 16 hrs a day. I have to watch my positions from 8pm to 11pm... then wake up at 4am to make sure the market didn't suddenly turn against me. On active nights, i will be watching it till the wee hours. Months later, i begin to question my lifestyle. Did i enjoy the experience of following HK, SG stocks in the day time, then US market at night? As for FX, it supercedes both time zone starting at 2pm. My answer is no. It was so laborous that it killed the fun factor. In anything we do, the fun factor must be there, otherwise we will not enjoy it. I made my money from the stock market before and i know how it feels and how it is done. It certainly didn't feel this way when i overtraded too many markets, too many instruments. Thus i thought it made sense for me to do what i know best - stocks.

One of the reasons i like trading the stock market is, I can still enjoy life while my money grow in the market. I can be out the whole day either leisure or business and not worry about my positions. This is the benefit of my method. It is not a get rich quick method but a consistent method to grow money from the market while having a healthy life outside the speculator in me.

Orite, lets talk more about what you like to read most - the current market. The above is just an avenue for me to share my experience which may save you from a few obstacles in trading life. I am still vested in Hyflux and CDLHTrust. Like i say in the last two posts, so long the support of broad market doesn't crack, it is still a bull market to me. The index has to correct as the chart looks bearish, but i notice majority of the stocks are still there, nothing much has changed, they are only stuck in a range. If i want to play this range, i would rather long as close to support than to short at resistance. Because, in a bull market support will hold, in a bear market resistance will hold. You ought to have a view and trade it.

Then the big question, why did i not add more positions? Simple! If i do not see both my stocks swing into deep profits, it means my prognosis is not correct yet. Why increase the risk by adding a third position? If the market proves me wrong, instead of losing 2 positions which is still kept under my money mgmt rule, i would have lost more than what my rule allows me with the third. Thus, in this market, my risk appetite is only 2 positions at most. But once they break new high, i will be hunting for the third purchase. Meanwhile, the waiting game continues....

I am waiting to see either of the following:

1. First batch of buy signals to rally to new highs
2. Resistance level of one particular sector cracked
3. STI at it's support and resistance relative to the broadbase market

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, October 26, 2009

 

Watching Property sector carefully.

STI went jelly legs but can i complain? At least we went the opposite of the "expected" sell-off after a horrid Dow closing last Friday. Things i like currently is selective plays are still alive. Bluechips though dead and quiet for some time but i can start to feel it coming. So long the supports are holding across most stocks, especially bluechips. This is a bull market to me.

As my title suggest, this is the one sector caught my attention purely on T.A. As we all know, the recent news about the property sector is prices are softening. Today i saw how nice Capland and Citydev moved, i cast my eyes on Hobee and Hongfok. Both stocks came up in my XPertTrader screening. However, i am seeing mixed trading from last week's results and thus this is inconclusive if we are breaking higher. The only consolation i seek is STI is above 2700. It will be interesting if i see the prop sector leads STI convincingly.

I am still holding on to CDL and Hyflux. Nothing uncomfortable abt the stocks yet and i am in no hurry to sell. Perhaps when either one swings into deep profit, i shall offload the underperforming other. Which will allow me to quickly snap up the next opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

 

Look out for the next hot sector

Stubborn 2700 was taken down finally last week. It is highly important to me that we stay above it this coming week. What we are seeing now is that it is coming down to test the previous resistance as support. Faith will be tested. Should investors sell in earnest, then it may bring us below 2700 once again. What i think is we need a strong upward movement motivated by a strong Dow to set us up for an uptrend. Plenty of important results are up next. It seems like companies are continuing to beat estimates. This sets me thinking....

I have one trading idea to share. That is to search for the sector which delivered the most solid result last reporting quater. Their charts may be consolidating now waiting for the next annoucement and we must beat the market to it by discovering it and buy it first. For i notice, before the result is anounced, the share price may have already rallied.

I am still holding on to my CDL and bought Hyflux during last week's weakness. I akin Hyflux's movement to be that of a healthy retracement to test resistance turn support after A-Triangle breakout. CDL though still on an uptrend and from the charts, nothing too bearish as yet. Keeping my fingers crossed that Monday's weakness will not be too large a magnitude. If it is just morning sickness and afternoon glory, perhaps, it is a bullish sign.

The hunt for the next hot sector is on!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

 

The double top feeling

What do you see in a market when they rally on lighter volume? Especially if they retest the previous high on lesser volume? With major dow components reporting results, this could be a turbulent week. According to the news, market is looking for better revenue and not just better profit margins from reducing expenses. It will be very obvious if i see a candlestick reversal pattern right at this level. It will mimic summer'08. Financial shares seem to be weak and no sign of life as yet. Properties still lacklustre.. they exhibits the rebound with lower volume mostly. With these two sectors resting.. it's no wonder we are still shy of 2700.

If you look at STI's chart, each day we gap up only to close weaker. Is this persistent selling? If we don't stay afloat 20MA, this may be where market test 2520. Otherwise, i will take the next higher low as another cue to add more long positions in this bull market. My CDL finally broke higher. I set my sight at 1.80 and applying a trailing stop incase my double top premonition happens. I am still on a lookout for my second trade. Business travel is taking alot of my time this month and hopefully when the signal comes, i am at a location with wi-fi.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
ChinaEratat
LionAPac

I found the above stocks with good trending traits. But fundamentally, i don't see what could be the catalyst for it to go higher. I read a trading magazine lately and it said 50% depends on market direction, 30% on sector/industry and 20% is picking the stock. Thus, the two stocks above... actually i don't see any reason for them to head higher other than from charts. Though at times, charts are painted by CKs. Thus i prefer to trade stocks with fundamentals which gives me a safety net.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 04, 2009

 

Finally it happens; 50-MA next

Alot of people has been asking where am i... why wasn't the blog updated. I think September summed it up very nicely, boring month! Over the last 2 weeks, did the market really moved? I think not... most of the stocks are like what my friend aptly described, vampire kind of movement.. jumping at the same spot. Thus i adopted a wait and see attitude, quietly observing what the market is trying to do. In between, i found time to travel on business trips and doing some family stuffs. If i have no trading ideas, what is there to share right? Surely we don't want this blog to turn into a travel blog? haha

Like i said in my last update, unless i see my CDL makes money, otherwise i shan't add on. It doesn't make sense to put good money after bad when the obvious was i didn't get the direction right. Though i must admit, certain stocks look to be luring me to put on a second trade. But i was wary of the after-effects of the bearish divergences which was so obvious in alot of charts. Alas, with last week's mayhem in the market, looks like it is the correct choice afterall. Though i didn't make money with that, it gives me confidence. The confidence that i know this game afterall. I found myself feeling more frustrating without a correct market opinion than losing money. This game has taught me that, every loss is a lesson learn and an insurance against bigger loss. However, once my opinion with the market is in-sync, that is where i know the money will start flowing in again. Looking back, although i grumbled about losing back this year's profits to the market, there is something to note here, while i took 2 months to build it up, i lose it over 7 long months. This reminds me of the an advise i read from a book, it goes like this... "In trading the financial markets, it is important to find a strategy that allows you to still make money despite being wrong 70% of the time." It makes sense doesn't it? How easy is it to win all the time? Or even 50% of the time? I hearsay, if you can win 50% of the time, wall street will queue up waiting to hire you. So if it's easier to lose than win in trading, then shouldn't we come out with a method to still make money while being wrong most of the time?

I am now ready to look forward to the next trade. Volatility is expected to pick up in October and i am tempted to adopt the strategy of selling into the rally since i see no reasons to be long in October where everyone is warning of a brutal month and surely this may affect buying sentiments? How about corporate earnings? Some of the good numbers maybe proped up by cutting down headcounts? I remember sales revenue ain't that good in the last report? It's just that, things are not that bad. With a good mix of good and bad econs numbers over last week, is this a hint that the quaterly results will surprise to the downside? I cannot place my bets based on speculating the results... thus i have to rely on charts. As they were just beginning to break support, i am observing if they are gonna stay firmly below it as i do not want to be whipsawed.

I set my sights at 50-day MA for now... it may act as a support. Index are still showing higher lows thus, i won't short for now and rather, i am looking to long. That's why i am still keeping my CDLHTrust - my only long trade. The next thing i am waiting for would be the 4r1g signal. That is my first sign that market is attempting to turn upwards again.

Now if the above didn't materialise, then we would have formed the early stages of a downtrend with the classic lower high and lower low. Usually the component stocks would lead the way in the fall. Thus watch their support levels for clues.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

 

STI tries to scale 2700 once again

In the previous 3 attempts, STI failed at 2700. In what looks like a Ascending Triangle, amazingly we are gonna try it for the 4th time. Will it be 4th time lucky? Indeed market has been rather sluggish these days. I rather wait at the lower range then to get caught at the high again. The last sell-off saw me scurrying for cover. This time round, i picked a short long and covered my HSI short position at a loss. I thought i would be killed after 21k broke out, looks like heavens gave me a chance to run and i gladly did so.

Of the list i posted last week, the stock i went long is CDLHtrust. Looks like my luck is changing as it is still near the entry price and slightly into profit. But i ain't gonna count my chicken before it is hatched. I wouldn't even consider getting into a second stock at this level. Market is sideway and i thought it only make sense to buy low in a trend, and if there is no trend, avoid buying at resistance is the least i can do. To me, i still have that thought about a sudden plunge in the market. But market as usual will not listen to me and so if it is still climbing, i shall cautiously thread along.

I am currently keen to observe how those 20-day mas are holding. It is flattening and we are hanging precariously by it in many of the stocks. Of course not all stocks will fall. Selective plays are still doing very well. But i just don't feel confident to go into one as yet. I look at the list of screening results i gotten from XPertTrader... C2O, CH-offshore, Cosmosteel, Des studio, Metro, Mermaid, Falcon...etc.. isn't it a textbook warning of a interim top whenever market is lead by such stocks?

Tonight i received quite a number of signals from property stocks. The last round they lead the first assault on 2700 but failed miserably. Nan dao, tomorrow they gonna try again?

Like i said earlier, i am sticking to just one stock at this level. I do not see those obvious signs of a trend, and i do not see rotational interest. Without those two, odds are against me.

I study with interest the chart on SPH tonight, all signs point to a higher price in coming days. This stock though slow has been very consistently heading higher. I shall continue to observe if it breaks the old high. Especially those stocks which are showing a change in trend, if they turn up successfully, then perhaps my CDL will break higher.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

 

Beware - Do not own the stocks i am eyeing

Tonight I present something that has been missing from this blog for a long time - GrowMoney QuickPicks. Please pay special attention to these stocks because these are the stocks i am eyeing. At this stage, you do not want to hold the same stocks that i am in because i am not at the best of my luck. Thus good luck to you if your stocks is one of the following.... haha

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Ausgrp
BakerTech
CDLHTrust
F&N
China Sky
Epure
JiuTian
LiHeng

Other than F&N, the rest are pennies. I think the play is still in the pennies. The fact that the bluies are not running is still a warning to me. My strategy is to long just one of them.... this first win is what i need to know that i am on the right track. China pennies are particularly cute because of their National holiday is coming and also upon seeing HSI breaking key resistance. Having said that, isn't it wierd? With FTSE and HSI breaking into new highs... Nikkei and Dow still ai mai ai mai....

Bluechips really is lacklustre as we are heading near Mt. 2700... nan dao a big pop up is coming? I was trapped in the shooting star last week when 2700 was pierced. I went on a buying spree in an opinion we go to at least 2750... alas it was not to be and i have to run my longs and suffered a blue-black eye. If we pop up again, i will STILL try! Yeah, the rule of the game is, when i lose, i lose small, when i win i must win big which will cover most of the losses if not all. Thus i cannot miss the next big run either up or down otherwise it tilts my equation. I do not need to sit by the sidelines as i feel i am still healthy to trade. I am still thinking objectively and do not hold on to hopes or losses. I know i need to stand aside if i begin to feel revengeful, despair, hopeless, clueless.

I am still short on HSI and no new positions. I will cut my HSI if we do not see a sharp sell-off over the next few days. Bear divergence leh... nan dao i am so suay until bear divergence also work against me? Did i mention Dow also has one? The CPI surprises on the upside... if it was the old days, the market would have sold off... because it means interest rate hike may be coming... right now Obama keeps saying they won't pull out from the bailout too fast too soon... they say recovery may be weak.... now we are very fragile... so a hike is pretty remote.. or is the market running higher so that it has room to fall because a hike is coming? Are they going to risk inflation?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

 

Market Tangos Sideway

Market continues to tango sideway with the exception of Property sector still as weak. The morning gap up couldn't sustain and there was no catalyst to spark the sell-off as yet. I couldn't believe my luck when i saw that HSI will resume trading only in the afternoon. Indeed it is a grim reminder to myself to tone down and not be too agressive in trading. Why no typhoon recently and so coincident ah? I opened a position and there u go, HSI morning session closed.

Anyway i am sticking to my short for now as 21k looks to be selling off everytime we trade there. Is it luring shortists? ot is it ready to kill longists? Market seems to be waiting for some news.. the better than expected US retail sales couldn't spark a rally... i need a set of bad jobs data for now on Thursday.. :P


StraitsAsia: MTL level coming up... my idea is to fade the breakout. If wrong, wait for a natural reaction before somersault to long. This is because, after 6 months of non stop rally, market should take a breather by a brutal correction to wash out weak holders. The situation now is, alot of people are adopting a buy and hope style - "When retrace, no problem it will go up"... with more and more such market participants, soon the supply of buyers will dry up as many are vested. Without buyers, the rally can't sustain.


C2O: This one for the brave hearted. With only 2 trading weeks, the volume already looked set to zoom past the previous week's. Either i long at breakout or at weakness i sapu 1st batch and add on upon breakout. Stop loss got to be tight as this stock is obviously CK kind of stock... last one to hold the baby when the music stops lose.... cruelty of such plays.

Another stock worth mentioning will be Chemoil.. This one i like the volume and price behaviour..however i feel it may be nearing it's end soon. Every push has a target price, we as the under privileged will not know. But based on chart, it is still easy to identify entries. Again, this kind of stock, cannot be stubborn when the music stops. If you look at it's chart, it is easy to notice that every big volume days brings about retracement before another push up.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, September 14, 2009

 

One step at a time


HSI on Daily, Bearish divergence warning and the MTL level on the daily chart. As we are very close to the resistance, i initiated a short position. Some of you may remember i had a short position. Truth be told, in last week's rally to test the 21k resistance, i had covered my short position with a loss. In hindsight, i should have hold. But last week's follow through buying had me fooled into thinking the market may be back to it's rotational best. How naive i was. I no care, both on weekly and daily shout weakness to me and i shall trade accordingly. Once it plunges all those losses will look small.


HSI on the weekly: In what looks like a rising wedge we are seeing a bearish divergence which is a perfect setup for a sell-off. The best part is it should be happening in the next few days. Otherwise it may be invalidated. With the on-going tariffs fight between US and China, all we need is a crazy policy by either side to be the catalyst.


STI: Mount. 2700 looks strong for now. Being resisted 2 times and if we include the end Aug black candle it would be nearly 3 times. Though range bound, i don't like the shooting star with heavy volume on the 10th Sept. It is a warning i must heed. With today's gap down, we may head up to close the gap and after which i may watch if the 20-MA line holds... over the last two occassions, there were whipsaws on this line thus render it's effectiveness as a support useless. I am looking at the 50-day MA for now or otherwise the horizontal low at 2522. Best is to see CS reversal at these two locations or otherwise i remain cautious.

By now we know why the wheels are locked and the wings are tied in the property sector.... the pending announcement already anticipated.. How tricky can this market gets? It's confirmed, it will be more difficult to get a loan to buy private property. Ironically, all the DBSS projects are priced so high... how can a combined income of 8k manage that mortgage? Mana logic? Anyway NS trained me to shout my mouth when it comes to policies.. Like they say the word official has got two mouths. During the sell-off today, i had thrown my Wilmar, DBS, Olam and SC-global picked up last week. I went on a buying spree using the follow through buying as a clue.. however the engine died at the old resistance and i was alarmed by the big volume. As such i had gotten these stocks near their highs, the only sensible thing to do is to get the hell out first and reassess the situation. 4 positions is akind to hoot tua tua.. it didn't workout. Run while the losses is still small.

The heavy volume sell-0ff in property stocks might present a good opportunity. Alot of them are trading near to their 20-day MA line. Break that and we may see more downside. Furthermore there are many bearish divergences around... but i won't short as yet. I had been wrong last week and according to my rules, i should go slow. I am happy if my HSI short makes me some money.... sekidat sekidat jadi bukit... this bukit will comprise of profits for me to risk as well as confidence. Actually it isn't my confidence shaken.. i just feel irritating to not been able to read the market correctly. My focus is not on how much i will make or loss for now, rather, it is important for me to get back the rythem...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

 

A sin called complacency

I been analysing what went wrong and how did my 20% returns since early of the year turn flat... one of the most important reason is complacency. Complacency is just a nice ang mo word for laziness. And we know in trading which is a highly intelligent game, one cannot afford to not spend the effort in analyzing. I self sabotaged myself by watching too much TV. I even made it an excuse that i need to balance life and trading to justify being a coach potatoe. How can i expect to build a fortune from trading when i am always catching the latest HongKong Drama Serials? I wasn't like this during the good old days. Every single night i would be looking at charts and Sunday afternoons are spent preparing for the coming trading week leaving only saturday for my ex-girlfriend. If i didn't make money now is because i have deviated from what was working for me. Time to get it all back. It makes sense.... in a positive enviroment, i get positive result. When i am in a dis-empowering mode, mana will make money? This explains my losses.

Following my purchase yesterday of Wilmar, i continued with DBS as part of my game plan. I grabbed DBS while it closed weak. I see today's weak and soft closing as a normal intra week pull back and expect the week to end on a stronger note. Part of my thoughts were on a soft Dow tonight which may lead local bourse to open weaker and thus get DBS cheaper. But who am i to dictate that to happen. Thus what i did was to know my E.S.P (Entry, Stop loss and Profit Target) and continue with the purchase. My next target of purchase will be property stock and may look at a second liner for off-shore services play such as ezra or swiber.. these crazy horses will fly. Remember what i said about wheel lock? That's why you see today, it really did retraced lower than where i have sold. And the China stock, Datang? It closed lower today. Just like mahjung..i feel this china stock falls under a good loss. It really seems unattractive on the charts now. I would rather look at China Coal which is a direct China coal play.

Another scenario i painted is, we close the weak lower. Upon close scrunity of the charts and judging from the follow through buying we got yesterday, this move should have legs. Which means to say, we should at least test the last high. But i do have to be objective and consider what if i am wrong. Then perhaps the market may falls back into the range. The observation of whether the selling is well absorbed is key here.

As for my HSI, i will cut if asia bourses breaks higher with 21k firmly taken out. As by then i think my long positions in stocks are poised to break upwards strongly. I will lose badly if HSI goes up and Singapore market crashes. Can this happen?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

 

Follow through buying

The moment i have been waiting for has arrived. Follow through buying... once i see this sign, i know what i should do next and i promptly did it. The follow through buying in props caught my attention. No doubt i can buy it in the morning when the market is weak and soft but surely it is the strength in the afternoon that convince me that my opinion is right and thus i can only act upon the latter.

I have took profit on my Wheelock.. just couldn't stand it's turtle pace. The name already said it, i was slow to realise.... Wheel lock... the wheels are locked how to run fast???? Furthermore i didn't grab it near the low and if a retracement happens, i am at a disadvantage. I grabbed Wilmar instead. The fundamentals is without saying - BAGUS! The chartwise, i always like stocks breaking into new highs in bull market because experience tells me, they tend to trade higher and higher. The expensive will always becomes more expensive. Also it is dealing with palm oil. With the collapse of USD, commodities and crude oil tua cheong.. this resulted in palm oil also tua cheong. No doubt central banker will not allow USD to totally become banana notes but i am in no position to guess at which level they will do that. Thus i follow where the market is going for now. Since there is follow through buying, my next anticipation is we go take out the last high in a rotational fashion. This means any dips may be a good chance to load up more. I will be watching volume on retracement days and supports to latch on to props and banks to complete my purchase. It is never wise to overload in one particular sector unless one has privileged information or strong reasons for their convictions on that particular sector.

As for my HSI, gosh... up by more than 1300 points in 3 days??? I couldn't cut today as it is pretty silly to be cutting loss right at resistance. Thus i have decided to bid my time and watch if there is a technical breakout on HSI. The indicators already points to a technical breakout. But i shall not be a smart alec and pre-empts this market. Following my recent loss in form, i need to be patience and carve out a 20% returns first before i resume bigger positions. This is what protecting capital is about. No profit to risk, i trade small.

It's amazing how when i read those trading books about how some traders will encounter the inevitable losing streak and right now i am in the middle of one! The toughest battle i am fighting isn't on the charts... it is with my own emotions.. it feels comforting to go into a self pity state but yet, i know in order to break that losing streak is to remain positive. It is a really unnatural thing to do but do i must. Market never changes, T.A works all the same... it is the individual who is the weakest link.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, September 07, 2009

 

The feeling of frustrations crept up

It's been a solid 6 weeks since i departed from Trading... or did i? Actually all this while, i have positions in the market. small but definitely vested. During my reservists and also my one week break last week, i still have access to internet and charts, just that, i couldn't be fully online thus only took a mid term view of the market and kept two positions. During last week's sell-off, the drastic decline by SSE spoil my day as i was forced to cover my long positions. Not only that, i had turned short on the HSI with the view that it is gonna see at least 19.4k but i no believe the bull is dead...thus i kept Wheelock long making the short on hsi just a hedge.. As we know by now, not only did the index tua rally, mine is the worse performing out of the property rally today. This seventh month is indeed inauspicious for me. You may think, "ok ma, just lose one position only..." I need to complete this passage with the loss i suffered on Datang Power listed in HKSE. When SSE found support, i went long on this stock with the opinion that the rally will be fierce. Especially since Premiere Wen say no such things as tightening bank's credit. Mana zai market still no confident and had to tua lao before last week's fresh announcement that foreign funds may increase vested interest. The only catch i read was, there is no change to the maximum cap. Just the % so it may mean no fresh money pouring in? Anyway, it's been a eat pork pay dog month for me. Nett nett it is a negative month. Though the loss is contained within my money management rules, but it never feels good to lose. Although this kind of thinking is not healthy and not being objective in trading... i am human afterall. I wonder where did my hardened soul of yester-year went to? I could consistently grow money year after year and even in the super 2008 bear. Surprisingly, i am at this stage flat in my account for the year 2009. I have under performed the benchmark index and this is making me very very unhappy.

Nan dao like the saying goes... as a man ages... so does the guts... Anyway, i shouldn't continue to sulk at what had happened... the past doesn't represent the future. My focus should be on the market and not whinning.

I notice the keen market interest in property stocks today... nan dao the consolidation is over? I am keen to see follow through buying which is sorely missed. Without a catalyst, i find it very tough to make any intelligent guess on the probably direction. As such, it is never wise to make any move until the market shows me. One by one, i want to see the property counters take out their July highs, then i can safely shoot for the banks which is likely to follow through.

Ask me how i miss Genting and many of those high flying stars? I also would like to know. One of the reasons i reckoned was i been badly hurt by then during my early days that i do not feel confident in them anymore. No matter how nice the chart may look, those i never buy will go up, those i buy often comes down.. i dunno why it happens but happen it did to me moons ago. Thus i only focus in stocks more than $1 which is more orderly in it's movement. Especially if there is sector confirmation. The other reason could be, all these happenings now is very familiar. I seem to have traded in this kind of market before... was it 2003? or was it 2004? Like the chinese saying goes, 回忆是痛苦的根原 I been hurt in those years before.. the sexy stocks goes up and down, some retailers make a killing but most got burnt. All this while, the good fundamental stocks steadily climbs higher and if i looked back, SGX was only 1.70 back then for the taking. Believe it or not, i forsake it to trade the likes of bio-treat, junma, chinasun, longcheers.. mistakes are never to be repeated..

Sorry for being long winded... it really feel nice to talk to the invisible me... trading is lonely... with so many possibilities in the market.. i have no convictions of the direction as yet.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

 

重出股林 Return to Trading

I need more time before i make my return to blogging my trading ideas again... need to re-adjust my time again... Reservist is super boring that i may have become stupid and less agile... Like i said 10 yrs ago, i can be a good citizen but i am not a good soldier. let me test my market opinion with my money and once on track then i share again. I have set the date of my return on 6th September 2009.

我需要多一些时间。回了营,受了训的我仿佛以变得阑珊。。变得迟屯。。我可以是一个很好的公民,但我不会是一个好军人。 我将在这期间重组我的股市技巧与感觉。。一旦和股市的脉搏有了联系,我便再一次出击。 我估计,这一天会是在九月六日。 敬请期待。。。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, July 27, 2009

 

Properties pause for a breather

hehehe My OCO order was triggered today! Technology! Cool! For those not familiar with this, OCO is one cancel other. I had set one protective stop to protect my profits incase the price of my banking stock comes down and then a limit sell at $12.90... oh nevermind that i missed the 6 cents higher closing price..it is already good profit, i shall take it with many thanks. haha Upon close scrutiny of the chart, wah it seems like it can still climb higher.. however, no choice, country comes first.. wahaha

Okie my property counter isn't doing so fantastically well. In fact it closed lower than Friday's closing. My trailing stop looks set to be triggered tomorrow if market gaps down. Unless Dow edges forward again! :D A quick screen shows that many property counters are resisted. It's about time they do so as they have been defying gravity for the longest of time. Financials is the star of today's session closing very strongly. Now that property sector has paused, if financial starts to do so... then perhaps market may retrace/correct. We then can start to look at those support to long again! What about commodities and related sector? They too showed weakness in price. Nan dao financial is the last leg up? lai, let's see what happens tomorrow.

Eh, you must be wondering, how come reservist still can blog? still can watch market? Today is just the first day where we settle admin work...the busy schedule should start once the orientation is complete. Why don't i take a 3 weeks break from market completely? I won't do that.. it is important that i continue to observe how the market trades during the next 3 weeks.. this will be helpful when i make my return to trading in 3 weeks time.

Counting down... 20 more days to go...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

 

Here without Ah-Gu

I watched on as the market once again recovers from intra-day weakness and finished the Friday session on a high note. I deviated from my game plan where i would have taken profit on the banking stock which i picked up on Thursday closing. Dow didn't play punk with me on Thurs and Friday it closed strong again. I figured it must have frustrated the shortists. Once we crossed the 9k mark firmly, most bears would have to run for cover and that's what happened on Thursday night? At least this is what i think. Alright, back to my positions, i saw the market actions and somehow it prompted me to keep my positions. It looks like it's the first day of breakout and i would expect more upside for the upcoming days. Thus, i intend to set trailing stops. My idea is, if i am wrong, and the market do a sudden reversal, then at most i lose back some of my profits. But if i am right, i will end up making alot more than now. As my reservist is starting, i cannot add new positions or be active in trading. But it is still useful to check out the broad market through screening. The post market analysis confluence with what i observed on Friday. Indeed, alot of breakouts akan datang. Weakness or cautious is when i start to see many stocks not going higher anymore.

I will not be around to watch the market for the next 3 weeks. Alas, my reservist will start tomorrow... what bad timing. Somemore cannot bring laptop or my 3G phone in...7am to 11pm... Hence i can only leave orders in the system. Anyway, i will be taking this good chance to read up on more T.A techniques... to me, this reservist is like i go into the mountains to learn kungfu. wahahahaha

During my absence, i hope you guys make more! Huat arh! and i will see you as and when i can get online!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

 

终于让我等到了!

我的那支没用的股终于给我争气了。我喜欢它在全天最高价收市。交易量看了就流口水。除非真的那么倒霉,不然明天应该少说也有两毛钱可赚。我真的好久没痛痛快快的赢了。老天啊,如果天有情,就让我在回营训练前赢上一把吧!

昨天月食竟然打不死牛市。就和前个星期一样,明明已经开始大泄,却换来一场空。那次的教训今天提醒了我。这么说呢?请听我慢慢为您道来...

昨天股市也是以大量被卖底。在日本蜡烛价格型态我们叫做流星。认真来说,整个市场就好像看到了流星雨。这是非常熊的。碰到这种情结,一般股市应以磞盘。但我们不止没跌还反而猛升。如果我在今天还在卖空,我是在逆流而行。而且是在犯两个星期前的错。因此我在闭市前买了支银行股,希望能顺手牵牛。手头上现有两支股。

希望美国佬不要破我美梦。升啊!


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

 

Patience .... patience...

Haiyo... yesterday i slept early to watch the solar eclipse ma! :D Once in a life time leh!

Dow's 7-day winning streak really leaves one open mouth big big. By probabilities, the chance of going higher is lower without first experiencing a pull back. But pull back maybe shallow as what we seen in March. Without much negative news, i feel only normal retracement in an upward trend may happen as we go higher. The primary trend without a mistake is upwards for now.

Many are talking about possible double top as we head towards last highs. I would wait to see how market trades there before i initiate any short positions. There is a time to long at support, there is also a time where u shouldn't buy at support. Same goes for resistance. When i say wait to see how market trades there, i am refering to candlesticks patterns.

If i have positions, i would unload on the way up and prepare to buy back at lower levels. But since i only have 1 long position, i shall keep it. Hearsay duing my reservist the timing is from 7am to 11pm... sian half... however, i am thinking to keep a long position on one strong stock.. just one so that i can grow money while serving the country.

While i look for stocks to long, i notice many are too near resistance to offer any good risk reward. Thus, i think it is prudent to wait for attractive levels. Don't be surprise those levels can be reached during intra-day where we have those quick sell-offs to those levels then we close higher.. a pattern which is commonplace.

Like Livermore said, "There's a time to long, there's a time to short, there is also a time to stand aside" But while we stand aside, make sure we don't miss the next trade!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, July 20, 2009

 

产业股突飞猛进!

七月二十日。晴

股市不断地向上冲,简直就在嘲笑地心吸引力的理论。升了五天还能继续在升吗?海峡与恒升已突破主要的阻力线,准备创今年的新高。经济不景?失业率创高?这一些好像没在发生。管它的爷爷,尽然股市要升,砸门就卖升!

现在我手中只有一支股。虽然股市猛起,但我的股只微升,真的是气死人。对我来说,股市应该会继续盘升。但绝对不会是一条直线。当中将会有回撤,让那些错过机会的人第二次的机会。

除非上周我有盈利,不然我是不会冒险地追股价。只要有耐心,下个机会一定会出现。礼物莫股神
曾经说过,在股市里,有些时候你必须卖或买,但有些时候你也必须懂得隔岸观火。明天将送上图表。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

 

MacD Bullish Crossovers

In my last posting, sorry i had to use mandarin because it is a rule for myself to alternatively rotate between the two languages and i can't seems to stop because it is so fun! I remembered last time when i was still an active trainer, my pet phrase is, "Trading must be fun, making money in the stock market must be fun, otherwise you must be doing the wrong things!" How true! Think about it, how many of us have read it or heard about it somewhere where the world's richest people are doing things they love to do. Logically speaking, how can anyone excel if they are not having fun in doing the things they are doing? No wonder 90% of the market participants are losing money. Many came with the mindset to make money.... alas they forgotten that they should be focusing on the process of making the money. Once you get the process right, money is the reward. Money is the result of your analysis. Michael Jordan knows he needs to shoot basket inorder to win championships... he trained hard. But what are we doing? We are dreaming about the big wins...but infact we should be focussing on the analysis. If we are correct, the money will follow. This brings to me a point on when to Hoot Tua Tua (Trading agressively)...

To Hoot tua tua, the opportunities doesn't come everyday.. i only hoot tua tua when i see obvious T.A signs and major confluences. Just like recently, i was preparing to hoot tua tua because many signs are pointing to the market crashing off a head and shoulder formation. When we rebound off a fake breakout, my rule is not to hoot. Truth be told, i would have hooted if Dow that night crashed.

As i peered through the charts over the weekend, i noticed many stocks has MacD Bullish Crossovers. Many of which are above the zero reference line which in my opinion is sign of upward trend. Earnings from the US once again top estimates. Giving strong reasons why the market should be heading north. Not wanting to miss the train, i load up on a long position. If I am right about the markets breaking new highs, i should make money off it. However, because of the big rebound last week, my risk/reward mgmt only allows me a small position which i am looking forward to add if the upward trend continues. Once the breakout happens, i will be watching for light volume retracement. OTherwise flag formation will be good as well. This is where market is looking to shake out weak holders.

If you look at the STI weekly chart, a beautiful bullish crossover has occured. Usually within the next 5 weeks we should know if this is just a whipsaw.

A watchout for me is when the market experience high volume sell off at resistance accross the board. This is a sign i will never forget because it has so far saved me from losing my profits or unneccessary losses during the last bull market.

I will also be going for my in-camp training soon... hopefully they have internet at cookhouse... 21st century army right? keke

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

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