It wasn't comfortable yesterday. The market rebounded ferociously against my short position and while stop loss was not hit, sometimes you are tempted to just cover the position and stand aside. With only 1 short position, i can afford to take the risk and hang on to the position. This is not blind faith and certainly not based on hope analysis. This is risk management couple with T.A. What i saw in that rebound on Wednesday is the light volume. I just can't believe the rebound can sustain on a very obvious light volume. Resistance still holds while we rebounded with light volume. What happens there and why the light volume, this i won't know. Livermore couldn't have said it better, the why usually will be answered after the move has started.

It was satisfying to see market tanks in the afternoon. However it all points to nothing if we don't close lower by Friday. Because from where the technicals are showing, naturally it should falls lower. If we trade higher on Friday - TREACHEROUS! Currently Dow is 3 digits down...sort of confirmed we are going to go down tomorrow. Pls dun get me wrong, I am not saying this is the start of another bear market. I just thought the market is showing that it is going lower and i just trade accordingly. As a market participant, we are like a boxer, we must know when to long, when to short.

Below shows the only short position i have in this market. I need the head and shoulder formation to form...once formed, i will swing into full shorts. Otherwise i feel the current volume is still not a strong indication. Bear rebounds are quick and can be high....shaking shortists out of position. It will be nice if tomorrow we wake up to a -280 from Dow... c'mon Dow u can do it!




DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Labels: dbs, light volume

The boring June is over! On this very last day of June... instead of finishing strongly, we were unable to close higher and infact mercilessly sold down near closing. This could mean funds already undressed? hahaha STI though was held up by invisible hand... this could be to squeeze index shortists over at the futures market. Broadbase market looks weak and were unable to clear resistance. I choose to square off my long and turn short right here. It has been bugging me for much of the day. All the resistance levels were screaming at me. As i see the falling market, charts after charts, they seems to be ready to plunge down. It is indeed ugly and i do not like the fact it doesn't trade higher today. Lower highs is very obvious and i thought i saw some head and shoulder patterns potentially forming... once those breakout, i think ripe for coming off.

Hum ji is tan bo jiak one. No care, i will just short one position and take it from there. Technically, it is a sell signal, the risk reward is mouth watering. If i don't short with technicals, there is probably no other reasons to short? At most i am wrong. In trading, we cannot afford to be afraid to lose. If we fall, we get up, dust ourselves and look for the next trade. 富贵险中求！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A super quiet session... very light... that's why we see the price swings up and down easily. Nothing conclusive from this session.... the waiting game continues...

The next direction with volume should indicate where we are heading. As of now, long or short may make peanuts... but when the direction suddenly breaks out, i may lose more than those small wins. I rather be patient and wait for a clear chance. I was tempted to initiate a short position in "anticipation" of a weak market going forward. My friend reminded me that it doesn't pay to be hero at this stage. With such light volume, market can go either way and i will get whipsaw out.

Weather is so different tonight as compared to the last few days.. it is so cool. My senses tell me the temperature is perhaps at a comfortable 28 degrees tonight. If only Singapore is always this weather, how nice. Perhaps this is the type of market where traders can take some time off the market and relax. A sms disrupted my peaceful night as i am penning down my thoughts tonight. MinDef reminder to attend ICT in July... argh!!! Hopefully no need to stay in then can still trade! :D OTherwise got to smuggle my 3G phone to camp liao.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

The world lost it's greatest pop star Michael Jackson... this legend really took the world by storm and through his popularity i saw what stardom is really about. Simply awesome. Growing up in the 80s... no way you will not hear about him. No matter how hard other stars try, he is still the only one whose music and name bring together different race, differnt country. His energy on stage is infectious. Though not a big fan, but i remember Tony Robins in his tapes mentioned Michael's success wasn't by chance.. he worked hard to achieve it. He knows what he wanted, he worked till he gets there. If only i can keep up with his kind of dedication, discipline and passion.... my dreams will come true too.

*snap* Get on with market!

Was last week's weak closing due to the usual Friday weakness? Or was it a warning to what may lie ahead. This is the pop-up that i had anticipated since last week. The weak closing spoil what otherwise i feel maybe a good chance to scale 2400. Furthermore the hammer on the weekly chart isn't on any significant support and hence i feel it may be just a pause in the selling. Hence i still opt to be prudent. There are times i feel extremely at ease at assessing the direction, currently it is definitely not the case. To make matters worse, my left eye keep twitching.. i wonder what bad news looms... It will be auspicious if we close next week a white candle. This would mean any intra week weakness may be a good chance to go long. It will be super duper good if Dow breaks the 200-dma... i'm sure alot of T.A practitioner is eyeing that. However, if we indeed start July in the wrong foot, then i am better off looking to short.

Commodities stocks looking hesistant... perhaps Alcoa result may give it the push it so sorely needed. I still have my long position in properties. Lets see what Monday brings.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

On the weekly chart, it still points to more downside. However the daily chart looks like turning. This is a very good level for the market to turn upwards. A quick screen on the market reveals that the volume still ain't returning as yet. So long you didn't buy at the high, i'm sure despite the swings in the market, the current price should be still around your breakeven price. I am also seeing a good chance for the market to bounce from here. The next 3 sessions will be key. I would be particularly interested to see the market close higher in the next 3 sessions. Otherwise we may plunge further.


Sector Analysis: After rounds of selling... two sectors stood out from the rest, properties and commodities. As we see the index falls lower and retest 2210s to 2230s level, only properties and commodities showing similar actions as depicted. Both sectors retest lows while the rest lower lows. Hence these are the two sectors i would be more interested in.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

I thought my gut feel proved itself when market got off to a roaring start in the morning and early afternoon. Alas, market shows that it takes more than gut feel to make money off it. I read with interest my post last night on how i refused to trade on my gut feel... indeed it pays to follow the market instead of placing my bets on where it will trade. Livermore said, "Ask not where the market is going, but ask what you will do when the market gets there". Very wise words. It had helped me at times when i feel confused about the market just like now. Ming ming it looks like it's going higher, but why the nasty late sell off? What am i missing here? The volume again in today's sell off is light which means to me, less significant.

Fed's meeting may turn out to be a non event unless he really do the impossible: hike the rate. All other econs data may just be the excuse to move higher. Nan dao, market consolidates first and leave some room to cheong once data confirm the strength of the economy?

Really is bo li you....

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

As planned, the mid-week rally saw me cutting down from 3 long positions to now 1 long position. Those two that are i cut were at a loss. I learnt to take small losses first instead of being stubbornly and painfully wrong. I mean it is clear to me that those buy signals didn't work and from my experience they may point to more downside. More downside doesn't mean the bull is dead, it simply means i may be too early. There is a SIGNIFICANT difference here i would like to share. The buy signals i used to trade was when the economy is doing well and is still booming... the recent buy signals were from a time when there is still much uncertainty about the economy. Simply said, the pull back can be pretty deep as compared to that of the bull market. Hence, i opt to reduce my risk exposure. If everything is fine, i can always add on to longs. As of now, if even this one position turns out to be a bad trade, the market may head lower.

My anticipation of the coming weeks is perhaps another push upwards and then form a lower high. This i have to watch the broadbase market for any evidence of hitting resistances and not moving any much higher.

The other reason why i am still keeping a long position, technically this pull back to me still looks like a normal and healthy retracement. But alas, i do not have the conviction to go full long. I still need to watch for more obvious signs before i add on to my positions. I may repeat, i would not maintain my risk level nor increase it just because i feel the market is in a healthy retracement. It sure is a fast way to lose a fortune by trading on "feel". After my daily screening... it sure looks like market is.....

....if i am right, then this coming week should see the resume of uptrend in anticipation of the next quaterly earnings in July. Not to forget we have the mid year fund dressing to look forward to. Index stocks are those that may benefit most.

On the index front, HSI looks pretty decent despite the horrific week. Based on the weekly candlestick analsyis, it seems like the hanging man got confirmed and HSI should head lower. However in T.A, if a bearish signal doesn't work out, the movement in the reverse direction can be very powerful.

Last but not least...... 赚钱的好机会来了！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.