DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

 

Continuation Patterns

This article was written in 2007. 


In the last issue we shared how to trade short term price patterns. In this article we will share another form of price patterns known as the triangles or continuation patterns where price is expected to breakout after consolidations. They are also well known as intermediate or near term patterns.  Although they are essentially continuation patterns, but sometimes they act as reversal pattern as well. Let's begin our discussion with a introduction to ascending triangle.

The ascending triangle will have a flat resistance and a series of higher lows.  While the price met with resistance at one particular price, it must be observed that buyers are very keen and that the dips from the resistance is higher one after another.  Breakout happens when the resistance finally gives way.  Ascending triangle breakout is biased to the upside and one should note where the breakout occurs.  The best breakout of triangles happens away from the apex of the triangle.

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Figure 1: ascending triangle example


As shown in Figure 1, the price chart of Boustead shows a resistance at $2.03 thereabouts.  For 3 months from Apr'07 to Jun'07, it is unable to breakout from this resistance.  However, it must be noted that the price retracement from the resistance achieved the higher low characteristic.  This is a very bullish sign as it meant that investors are very keen to buy and the buying pressure is strong as the price is unable to trade lower. On late June'07, the price broke out of the resistance and went on to new high.  Do note that it is away from the apex of the triangle.

Second in line is descending triangle. As the name suggest this price pattern is biased to the downside. Instead of a flat resistance as in the case of an ascending triangle, for a descending triangle we will be looking out for a flat support. The price will have seem to have found support at a particular price and that gives investors an impression that the price seems to be holding at this level very well. Not obvious to the untrained eyes, every price rally is actually getting lower. Then a breakout to the downside will catch investors unaware.  

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Figure 2: descending triangle example



As shown in figure 2, the price chart of Unionmet shows a flat support at $0.51  thereabouts.  For nearly 3 months, the support gave a false sense of security to investors because while the support is holding well, every price rally is getting lower and lower.  It is suggesting strong overhead selling at every rebound.  Investors should be cautious of such characteristic.  This is a very bearish sign as it meant that investors are very keen to sell and the selling pressure is strong as the price is unable to trade higher.  In middle of Jul'07, the price broke out of the support and went on to new low.  Do note that it is away from the apex of the triangle.

Last but not least, symmetrical triangle.  This price pattern can breakout either to the upside or downside.  Price will trade lower high as well as higher low, converging towards the apex of the triangle.  It's like the buyers and sellers are very balanced in power and the price was traded in a converging manner until a breakout to either side happens.

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Figure 3: symmetrical triangle example


As shown in figure 3, the price chart of HiapHoe shows converging lower highs and higher lows.  While the ascending and descending triangle pattern dictate the market tone, where it is bullish and bearish respectively, symmetrical triangle dictates a balance between buyers and sellers.  Hence it is only after a break to either side then only can we conclude whether it is trending higher or lower.  From early Nov'07 to late Dec'07, we can see that every price rally is lower than the previous attempt and every price retracement ends up higher than the previous.  A breakout to the upside then occurs in late Dec'07. 

There are other essential factors to consider when we are trading triangle patterns. The best triangle is formed between one month to not more than three months. The volume should be drying up as the price trades towards the apex of the triangle.  Upon breakout of the triangle pattern, volume should be significantly higher. It will be even more bullish if the price gaps up in the breakout.

In this article we have discussed the 3 types of price patterns known as the triangles.  Breakout of triangles should not be too close to the apex and that it should be accompanied with heavy volume.  The time taken for the triangle pattern to form should be between one month to 3 months typically.


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This article first appeared in Smart Investor in 2007. 
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

 

Understanding Price Gaps

This article was written in 2007. 

Overnight closing on Wall Street, ground breaking news and surprising positive or negative announcements never fails to excite investors.  Stock prices responded by bursting into the perceived direction in an explosive manner as investors poured into the market.  This exuberant mood resulted in a vacuum between the last traded price and the previous.  In technical analysis, this vacuum in price is known as a price gap.  There are 3 types of price gaps worthy to look into and we shall study their characteristics and discuss how to trade them.
     
A gap occurs when the lowest price of a specific period is above than the highest level of the previous trading period.  The specific period can be that of a daily chart,  weekly chart or any other time frame.  The gap is represented by an empty vertical space between one trading period and another.  It can be formed by overnight good or bad news disseminated by the market.  A gap is considered “closed” when the price retraces the whole range of the gap.  By definition, all gaps will be closed.  However it is noted that while many gaps are closed within days or weeks, there are some which took months or years to close.  You can only imagine how much the price has to retrace to close a gap many months later.  Price gap is a result of irrational decision to buy or sell at any price  the equity is trading at and hence when rational thinking returns to the investors, they will start to unwind positions and thus lead to the closing of price gaps. Trading strategies can then be deployed in anticipation that the price will close the gap either partially or completely.
A breakaway gap is created when the price breakout from a chart pattern.  Generally, price gap symbolized the bullishness or bearishness of the breakout as per the direction.  It will be useful if we combine this analysis of breakout with volume confirmation.  Typically we would like to see breakout to the upside with heavy volume.  However, breakout to the downside does not require heavy volume.  


Figure 1: Breakaway Gap


In Figure 1, Aztech formed an ascending triangle price pattern which is bullish in nature.  It broke out of the price pattern accompanied by a price gap up.  As an ascending triangle is biased to the upside, the breakaway gap added more bullishness in the direction.  It must be noted that the volume accompanying the breakout is high as well.
     
A Continuation gap occurs during a sharp price movement in advance or decline.  This type of gap often occurs halfway between a previous breakout and the ultimate duration of the move.  It is normally accompanied with positive news and investors reacted to it in an exuberant manner. 


When a price contains more than one runaway gap, it indicates that the trend is very powerful.  However, market participants should be wary if there is a presence of a second or third gap as this is a sign that the move is likely to be out of steam soon.  There is a possibility that a second or third runaway gap may be the last one.  Hence an exhaustion gap is associated with the termination of a preceding move and is the last in a series of runaway gaps.  One good clue would be to look at the volume.  Exhaustion gap is normally accompanied with unusually high level of volume.  It is important to note that, exhaustion gap signals a likely price consolidation after the termination of a move and may not regarded as a major reversal.

Figure 2: Continuation Gap & Exhaustion Gap

As shown in Figure 2, after Genting International had been awarded the Sentosa IR project, investors reacted positively and price gaps up on 11th Dec 2006.  In the same month, stock price continues to gap up as investors continues to savor the happy occasion and great expectations from the news.  At the third gap up (exhaustion gap), it was observed that the volume was much higher.  Investors should be cautious by now as this is a warning of a potential exhaustion gap and price consolidation is a possibility.

 Figure 3: Continuation Gap with high volume

Osim as shown in figure 3 had a first gap down in late Oct 2006.  3 month later it had another gap down accompanied with unusually high volume.  It qualifies as an exhaustion gap as this is a second gap and since it comes with high volume.  Price then went into consolidation as what is expected from an exhaustion gap.  This consolidation lasted 3 months to late April before the price gaps down again.  

This article has discussed 3 types of price gaps and how we can use them to aid in our analysis.  Breakaway gap is most useful if there is a preceding price pattern.  Continuation gap which extends the preceding movement may lead to exhaustion gap which in turn may hint of price consolidation ahead.  Lastly, volume is a big clue in identifying an exhaustion gap.  

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This article first appeared in Smart Investor in 2007. 

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Friday, January 06, 2017

 

Fibonacci Retracement – Waiting for the Right Moment

This article was written in 2007. 

IT has been 3 years since the Singapore stock market begun its amazing bull run, scaling to new highs and reaching the all time high of more than 3600 points in June 2007. The exponential increase in trading volume in the stock market shows that more and more beginners may be getting involved in stocks. Most are looking for big rewards and are determined to make a killing to profit from this bullish market. However largely unknown to beginners, the lack of a comprehensive trading strategy or technical knowledge in analyzing the behavior of the stock market is leaving them exposed to high risk. On the other hand, most experienced traders understand the behavior of the stock market well and would know how to anticipate price movements in any given time frame.  For example, some stocks would form a chart bottom formation before resuming the uptrend while some stocks with stronger bullish sentiment would resume its uptrend ferociously. Either way, the experienced traders would know how to identify when is the best time to take up positions where there is lesser risk. Therefore, it is crucial for beginners to learn some form of technical analysis so as to time their trades better. No one likes to buy high and sell low, but not many know how to buy low and sell high.  This article will introduce an effective tool that will help identify the chart bottoms and the best time to enter the stock market. This tool is well known as the Fibonacci Retracement levels. Last but not least, we will also discuss how Fibonacci Retracement can be used to manage and minimize risk in the stock market.



The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers that were first derived by Leonardo of Pisa in the 15th century after observing the population expansion of a pair of rabbit. Recognising the importance of Fibonacci numbers to real-life application, mathematicians derived the Fibonacci Retracement levels for trading in the stock market; the latter levels being made up of 6 percentage numbers or lines. Depending on the preferred trading period of the trader, the Fibonacci Retracement lines are drawn for an uptrending stock by first identifying the bottom and then the top. After the identification of the bottom and then the top, we start to calculate the retracement levels between the highest price and the lowest price. Nowadays, this can be done by a simple click of the mouse.  Most charting software in the market allow you to draw the Fibonacci Retracement levels effortlessly.  ChartNexus is one such tool which also comes with free end of day data for download.  The fibonacci retracement levels commonly used are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% with the most significant levels being 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. As the saying goes, what goes up must come down.  In an uptrend, a stock will make higher high and higher low.  Fibonacci Retracement is used to identify the price level as it retraces to a higher low before testing the higher high. The first possible level of support for a retracement is usually the 38.2% line. The following figure below illustrates how the 38.2% line is effectively tested as support in the chart of China Energy.




Figure 1 China Energy rebounded off 38.2% level

In the figure above, China Energy began to pullback after forming a top from May 2007 to early June 2007.  On 12th June 2007, the stock tested the 38.2% level and subsequently rebounded off the level. Again, from 24th to 25th June 2007, the stock tested the 38.2% level a second time and rebounded off it. 38.2% in this case served as a very strong support for China Energy.


The following figure shows Tech Oil & Gas rebounding after hitting the 61.8% line. 


Figure 2 Tech Oil & Gas rebounded off 61.8% level

However, the 61.8% line is also known as the last line of defense for the stock price. A break below the 61.8% line usually means that the uptrend of the stock is negated.  In Figure 3, Luzhou broke the 61.8% line on 1st March 2007 (in red) and the stock price went down further thereafter.





Figure 3: Using Fibonacci Retracement lines as support and resistance level

As observed from Figures 1 & 2, Fibonacci Retracement Levels offer very strong support or resistance to the price movement.  In Figure 3, we can see that Luzhou’s stock prices were able to find good support at the 50.0% line from Oct 2006 to Jan 2007. However, in the month of March the 50.0% line turned from support to resistance, resisting Luzhou’s price from heading higher. Similarly in the month of April, Luzhou’s price found resistance at the 61.8% line and went into a downtrend shortly thereafter.
The Fibonacci Retracement levels can also used in conjunction with other indicators to help in analyzing the stock chart. This is known as confluence of signals. The combination of other indicators further enhances and compliments the usage of Fibonacci Retracement levels thus resulting in higher probability of a successful trade. In this article, one of the popular indicators used by many traders, the 100-day moving average is used to analyze the stock chart of Tech Oil & Gas which is shown in Figure 4 below. 

Figure 4: Using Moving Average with Fibonacci Retracement level 

Figure 4 clearly shows that the prevailing trend of Tech Oil & Gas is an uptrend and that the price found support on the 100-day moving average from May 2007 to July 2007 . The next observation is that the price was trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.  While the 100-day moving average is supporting the price movement, Fibonacci Retracement is also providing support at the 61.8% level which is about the same price level as the moving average line.  Hence the price is said to be very well supported because we have the confluence of two types of analysis, namely moving average and Fibonacci levels. 

This article has highlighted the importance of understanding the stock market behavior in order to enhance one's timing of the stock market. A powerful tool such as Fibonacci Retracement is widely used to identify possible support and resistance to the price movement.  This helps experienced traders to buy low and sell high.  In addition, the usage of the Fibonacci Retracement line together with the concept of support and resistance level and the confluence with the 100-day moving average helps to forecast the possible price movement and increases one’s confidence to take the trade.
This article first appeared in Smart Investor in 2007.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.




Thursday, January 05, 2017

 

Determining the direction and strength of trend

This article was written in 2007.

One general rule of thumb in trading is to identify the trend of the stock market. There are 3 types of trend namely uptrend, downtrend and sideway, representing the overall mood of the stock market. In any trend condition, an uptrend, downtrend or sideway represents the mood of the stock market is bullish, bearish or trendless (sideways) respectively. Hence, the trend is commonly determined to help establish a basic analysis for traders to take up long or short position in any stocks. Normally, in a bullish mood or an uptrend, buyers are more likely to take up a long position and buy stocks at higher prices thus pushing the stocks prices to go up. In addition, when the trend is determined, trader can identify the tops and bottoms of the stocks for buying or shorting opportunities. Most traders prefer to trade along the trend as the rise or fall of the stock prices can be anticipated easily and hence reducing risk exposed in the stock market. In the situation of an uptrend market, there are more days the prices of stocks are going up compared to down. Whilst in a downtrend situation, it is the direct opposite. Therefore by following the trend, the probabilities of positive returns could be increased. Moreover, by first determining the trend, traders can plan out effective trading strategies before putting up a position in the stock market. However by determining the trend alone usually may sometime deemed as inadequate to help traders to enter a position in any stocks. Most traders would also like to confirm the strength of the trend to further increase their probabilities of positive returns. The stronger the trend, the higher the probability of riding the trend successfully. Moreover, confirming the strength of trend could help traders to identify any sign of trend reversal. A weaken trend strength would probably indicate the end of the current trend and start of a new trend, which means the beginning of either downtrend or sideways. Thus, this article will look into how trends can be identified and the major technical aspects of the indicator in determining the strength of the trend.

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Trend analysis used to determine the trend can be quite complex. Factors like defining the appropriate time frame and the ability of drawing useful trendlines contributes to the complexity. Nevertheless, there are a few trend analysis popularly used by many traders to determine the current trend. Methods like drawing trendlines and using technical indicators can be utilized to ascertain the trend. Basically trendlines are drawn by connecting 2 points together in a chart - an uptrend line is drawn by connecting 2 points of higher lows and extends to the desirable time frame while a downtrend line is drawn by connecting 2 points of lower highs and extends to the desirable time frame. There are 3 common types of trendlines and they are classified into short-, intermediate- and long-term trendlines as shown in the chart below.

 Chart 1: The drawing of Short-term, Intermediate-term and Long-term trendlines

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A few technical indicators commonly used by technical analysis (TA) practitioners are the Moving Averages (MA) lines (normally 50 Days / 100 Days MA) and Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMAs) lines. The MA lines make use of the simple moving average to indicate the direction of the trend. The MA lines sloping up with prices of the stock above is seen as an uptrend while a downtrend is the opposite. In a trendless market, the 50 days and 100 days lines are seen together as a horizontal line. Meanwhile, the GMMAs make use of 3 sets of the exponential moving averages (EMA) lines to indicate the trend. The 3 sets of GMMA lines consist of short-term, mid-term and long-term EMA lines. In an uptrend, all 3 sets of EMA lines would normally slope upwards with the short-term EMA lines above the mid-term EMA lines while the mid-term EMA lines are above the long-term EMA lines. On the other side of uptrend, the downtrend will have all 3 sets of EMA lines sloping downwards with the short-term EMA lines being the lowest followed by the mid-term EMA lines. On a trendless period, the 3 sets of EMA lines will often be noticed as a single horizontal line. The following chart shows the indication of trend by MA lines and GMMAs.

Chart 2: The identification of trend using MA lines and GMMAs

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After exploring the methods in identifying the trend, this article will next discuss the most popular indicator used by most TA practitioners; the Average Directional Index (ADX) which measures the strength of the trend effectively. The ADX indicator was developed by J.Welles had been the favorite indicator used by among most traders to assist them in measuring the strength of the trend. The ADX indicator is an oscillator that usually consist of 3 lines; the +DI line, the -DI line and the ADX line. The ADX line is a derivative of +DI and -DI which provides the reading that fluctuates between 0 and 100, indicating the strength of the trend. A reading of below 20 indicates a weak trend whilst a reading above 40 indicates a strong trend. In addition, an ADX reading strengthen from below 20 and moves above 20 may signify the end of a trading range and a trend could be developing. On the other hand, an ADX reading falls from above 40 and moves below 40 could signify the current trend is losing strength and a trading range may develop. Some TA practitioners use the reading from the ADX to identify the potential changes in the stock market from trending to non-trending. The following chart shows how the ADX indicator measures the strength of current trend corresponding to a particular stock.

Chart 3: The direction of the trend versus the strength of the trend

In the above chart, it is coincidental that the ADX reading for the featured stock corresponded to a strong uptrend and the development of uptrend. However, it is important to note that the ADX reading does not point to the direction of the trend but merely the strength of a trend. For example, an ADX reading of above 40 could also mean that the strength of a downtrend is strong. The most basic form of using the ADX indicators can be generated when +DI line and -DI line crosses. A buy signal is generated when +DI line crosses over the -DI line whereas a sell signal is generated when -DI line crosses over the +DI. Nevertheless, many experienced TA practitioners found that buying or selling based on the crossover rule is insufficient as there are whipsaws and hence the accuracy of getting into the right trade based on crossover rule is low. Consequently, the experienced TA practitioners refine the crossover rule by considering the ADX reading as well. A cross up of +DI line over the -DI line with ADX reading between the +DI line and -DI line is often considered as a more accurate buy signal as shown in Chart 3 (orange highlighted). The other way around, a more accurate sell signal is considered when the +DI line cross down the -DI line with ADX reading between both the +/- DI lines. 

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Finally, the identifying the direction of the trend and determining the strength of the trend played an important role when the traders want to take up a position in the market. The trend analysis and indicators make the traders' job in determining both the direction and strength of the trend easier and thus increasing probabilities and accuracy in entering into a good trade. Therefore, traders are exposed to minimum risk in the stock market while profits are maximized. 

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This article first appeared in Smart Investor in 2007.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Friday, May 22, 2015

 

Nearly 6 years of hiatus from blogging...is it even still the in-thing?

It is amazing how time flies...since the last post in 2009, it is about 6 years since i last shared on this blog. One day i will restart this again...my mind is willing but body is weak. I lacked the resolve to stay up late nowadays. I have to choose between family, business, trading, friends and blogging.  Alas, blogging has to give way.

Trading has become reflexive after 10 years of doing it. There is a saying, mastery of a skill comes at the 10,000 hours mark which is about 10 year if you put in a few hours daily. Learning never stops so long trading never stops. I encourage you to keep trading. If you are losing, trade small but trade. Nothing beats learning from losing real money.

Perhaps i shall share more of what i observed from my own trading for the benefit of those who are learning... The last 6 years i continued to trade the SGX stocks. But at the same time, i started to explore more markets such as US stocks, stock Indexes like FTSE, Major currency pairs... This is only possible because i left my engineering job and joined ChartNexus.

 Each market has its own flavour. For example, I would first observe the price action and how it trades at support and resistance. Make some mental trades and once i am "in-sync" with the market, i would then place my trade. Another example is US stocks, you could observe what is the pattern? Does the market close weak after lunch? Or does it close strong? Weak opening but strong closing? Strong opening but weak closing? Understanding these patterns will allow you to better time the "when" to buy.

Do i use indicators? Yes i do. I know they are lagging but they represent some useful statistics if you understand the indicator. For example, if you are interested in stocks which are trading in tight range and there are more buying then selling...there is an indicator for this. Once they breakout from this indicator, it is a buy. The next direction is a result of what had happened before today. So if you have a screener which can pick up stocks exhibiting the price behavior you are looking for, then you could trade these stocks at the right moment.

 For forex, my approach is determining the direction of the pairs by comparing with other major pairs and then technically from bigger time-frame charts such as weekly, daily, 4-hour and then take my trade on the hourly and 30-min chart. This is called multi-time frame analysis. News is essential to know when trading forex as it can wreak havoc on the announcement days. A bullish chart can suddenly become bearish and vice versa. I recommend strong knowledge on chart patterns when trading forex.

Here are some of the moments i collected to share with you.  I hope you are inspired and encouraged.  Remember, i once started out as a losing trader.  You can read my posts in 2005.... If i can do it, so can you. Just keep trading keep learning.






DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

 

Dubai shocker and what i will be doing

On this night, i shall write about my thoughts on the latest market shocker... Dubai to delay payment on its US$60B debt. Global markets had already been greatly shaken. STI will open Monday and it's direction is highly anticipated to be down, the magnitude is everyone's guess though. Next question will be... is this Dubai a non-event? Or a perfect reason for prices to pull back? Is this the end of the bull?

Firstly, my opinion on the fundamentals is, US$60B is chicken feed for UAE to rescue it. Surely we saw how the government in a concerted efforts print hundreds of billions in 2009? Also oil-rich state? How to go belly up? Then the news say, it's the repercussion that they are worried about. Hmm... recent years, i didn't read about any major interests in that city... they are neither key exporters or importers in global economy. however, as a green horn, i shall watch how the market reacts to it.

STI breaks 2700 points... should i be happy since in my earlier posts i had anticipated it to give way? Happy i am not because only the banks are moving higher. The rest of the sectors were lacklustre. In addition, my own portfolio basically at a standstill... near breakeven level only or sometimes swing slightly into negative. Like i say, if my portfolio didn't grow money, i know i am still not right as yet. What awaits me this coming week will be daunting.

Daunting because i have two choices, do i run my stocks? (SGX, CDL-HTRUST, Hyflux) or do i look to long? Maybe i should short? I am tempted to set up a very complicated hedge where i short some on Monday to hedge my longs. But i do not have the luxury of time. These days alot of travelling, you have a higher chance of meeting me in KL than Cityhall. Thus, i have decided to stick to my stop loss levels. If time permits, i will post in coming days. In time of chaos, only technical levels is what i can depend on for surely if i were to trade by opinion, i may bleed. So this takes care of my current stocks.

Now if this is just a blip the market is looking for, it is a glorious opportunity to load more into the year-end rally. If stocks do not breach my cut loss, and reverse from near support, the risk/reward favours a long. Even if i am wrong, the stop loss is nearby. But if i am right, the reward outweighs the risk.

How about shorting? Yes, i will not hesistate to liquidate my longs and turn short if those significant support levels are compromised this coming week.

Sorry that i disappoints anyone who is used to this blog...as recently, i have other priorities to take care of. If got good opportunities, I will update via here. If you are a graduate, do use the forum, i will give my two cents there more often.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

 

Supports are still holding

Hello everyone, i'm sure you have noticed the decrease in frequency of me updating on the market. To the minimum, i'm trying to update at least once a week. This is the best i can offer as i no longer have the energy to multi-task so many things. Thus, the weekly update would be the most significant as we look beyond the daily noise. There are many methods to make money in the stock market, some like the excitement of intra-day trading, some may like to contra but i like to ride trends and trade according to market directions.

Many months ago, I was busy shorting a bull market at it's infancy stage, each time i covered my shorts, i would often time have to turn long to cover back my losses. As soon as the market turns soft, i would try to short again. In short, it is by far a "eat pig, pay dog" experience. Few weeks back, there was a Saturday night where i spent hours reading my trading diary in 2006... and i saw how i learnt from the market and what were my mistakes. One particular obvious way which i made the most money was from riding the trends of strong sector. Not only that, my game plan was solid as i build a portfolio of stocks from leading sectors. Fast forward to this year, i was more of a maverick. To be honest, i even traded FX earlier this year. Yes i made money from it but my eyes were on the screen for more than 16 hrs a day. I have to watch my positions from 8pm to 11pm... then wake up at 4am to make sure the market didn't suddenly turn against me. On active nights, i will be watching it till the wee hours. Months later, i begin to question my lifestyle. Did i enjoy the experience of following HK, SG stocks in the day time, then US market at night? As for FX, it supercedes both time zone starting at 2pm. My answer is no. It was so laborous that it killed the fun factor. In anything we do, the fun factor must be there, otherwise we will not enjoy it. I made my money from the stock market before and i know how it feels and how it is done. It certainly didn't feel this way when i overtraded too many markets, too many instruments. Thus i thought it made sense for me to do what i know best - stocks.

One of the reasons i like trading the stock market is, I can still enjoy life while my money grow in the market. I can be out the whole day either leisure or business and not worry about my positions. This is the benefit of my method. It is not a get rich quick method but a consistent method to grow money from the market while having a healthy life outside the speculator in me.

Orite, lets talk more about what you like to read most - the current market. The above is just an avenue for me to share my experience which may save you from a few obstacles in trading life. I am still vested in Hyflux and CDLHTrust. Like i say in the last two posts, so long the support of broad market doesn't crack, it is still a bull market to me. The index has to correct as the chart looks bearish, but i notice majority of the stocks are still there, nothing much has changed, they are only stuck in a range. If i want to play this range, i would rather long as close to support than to short at resistance. Because, in a bull market support will hold, in a bear market resistance will hold. You ought to have a view and trade it.

Then the big question, why did i not add more positions? Simple! If i do not see both my stocks swing into deep profits, it means my prognosis is not correct yet. Why increase the risk by adding a third position? If the market proves me wrong, instead of losing 2 positions which is still kept under my money mgmt rule, i would have lost more than what my rule allows me with the third. Thus, in this market, my risk appetite is only 2 positions at most. But once they break new high, i will be hunting for the third purchase. Meanwhile, the waiting game continues....

I am waiting to see either of the following:

1. First batch of buy signals to rally to new highs
2. Resistance level of one particular sector cracked
3. STI at it's support and resistance relative to the broadbase market

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, October 26, 2009

 

Watching Property sector carefully.

STI went jelly legs but can i complain? At least we went the opposite of the "expected" sell-off after a horrid Dow closing last Friday. Things i like currently is selective plays are still alive. Bluechips though dead and quiet for some time but i can start to feel it coming. So long the supports are holding across most stocks, especially bluechips. This is a bull market to me.

As my title suggest, this is the one sector caught my attention purely on T.A. As we all know, the recent news about the property sector is prices are softening. Today i saw how nice Capland and Citydev moved, i cast my eyes on Hobee and Hongfok. Both stocks came up in my XPertTrader screening. However, i am seeing mixed trading from last week's results and thus this is inconclusive if we are breaking higher. The only consolation i seek is STI is above 2700. It will be interesting if i see the prop sector leads STI convincingly.

I am still holding on to CDL and Hyflux. Nothing uncomfortable abt the stocks yet and i am in no hurry to sell. Perhaps when either one swings into deep profit, i shall offload the underperforming other. Which will allow me to quickly snap up the next opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

 

Look out for the next hot sector

Stubborn 2700 was taken down finally last week. It is highly important to me that we stay above it this coming week. What we are seeing now is that it is coming down to test the previous resistance as support. Faith will be tested. Should investors sell in earnest, then it may bring us below 2700 once again. What i think is we need a strong upward movement motivated by a strong Dow to set us up for an uptrend. Plenty of important results are up next. It seems like companies are continuing to beat estimates. This sets me thinking....

I have one trading idea to share. That is to search for the sector which delivered the most solid result last reporting quater. Their charts may be consolidating now waiting for the next annoucement and we must beat the market to it by discovering it and buy it first. For i notice, before the result is anounced, the share price may have already rallied.

I am still holding on to my CDL and bought Hyflux during last week's weakness. I akin Hyflux's movement to be that of a healthy retracement to test resistance turn support after A-Triangle breakout. CDL though still on an uptrend and from the charts, nothing too bearish as yet. Keeping my fingers crossed that Monday's weakness will not be too large a magnitude. If it is just morning sickness and afternoon glory, perhaps, it is a bullish sign.

The hunt for the next hot sector is on!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

 

The double top feeling

What do you see in a market when they rally on lighter volume? Especially if they retest the previous high on lesser volume? With major dow components reporting results, this could be a turbulent week. According to the news, market is looking for better revenue and not just better profit margins from reducing expenses. It will be very obvious if i see a candlestick reversal pattern right at this level. It will mimic summer'08. Financial shares seem to be weak and no sign of life as yet. Properties still lacklustre.. they exhibits the rebound with lower volume mostly. With these two sectors resting.. it's no wonder we are still shy of 2700.

If you look at STI's chart, each day we gap up only to close weaker. Is this persistent selling? If we don't stay afloat 20MA, this may be where market test 2520. Otherwise, i will take the next higher low as another cue to add more long positions in this bull market. My CDL finally broke higher. I set my sight at 1.80 and applying a trailing stop incase my double top premonition happens. I am still on a lookout for my second trade. Business travel is taking alot of my time this month and hopefully when the signal comes, i am at a location with wi-fi.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
ChinaEratat
LionAPac

I found the above stocks with good trending traits. But fundamentally, i don't see what could be the catalyst for it to go higher. I read a trading magazine lately and it said 50% depends on market direction, 30% on sector/industry and 20% is picking the stock. Thus, the two stocks above... actually i don't see any reason for them to head higher other than from charts. Though at times, charts are painted by CKs. Thus i prefer to trade stocks with fundamentals which gives me a safety net.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, October 04, 2009

 

Finally it happens; 50-MA next

Alot of people has been asking where am i... why wasn't the blog updated. I think September summed it up very nicely, boring month! Over the last 2 weeks, did the market really moved? I think not... most of the stocks are like what my friend aptly described, vampire kind of movement.. jumping at the same spot. Thus i adopted a wait and see attitude, quietly observing what the market is trying to do. In between, i found time to travel on business trips and doing some family stuffs. If i have no trading ideas, what is there to share right? Surely we don't want this blog to turn into a travel blog? haha

Like i said in my last update, unless i see my CDL makes money, otherwise i shan't add on. It doesn't make sense to put good money after bad when the obvious was i didn't get the direction right. Though i must admit, certain stocks look to be luring me to put on a second trade. But i was wary of the after-effects of the bearish divergences which was so obvious in alot of charts. Alas, with last week's mayhem in the market, looks like it is the correct choice afterall. Though i didn't make money with that, it gives me confidence. The confidence that i know this game afterall. I found myself feeling more frustrating without a correct market opinion than losing money. This game has taught me that, every loss is a lesson learn and an insurance against bigger loss. However, once my opinion with the market is in-sync, that is where i know the money will start flowing in again. Looking back, although i grumbled about losing back this year's profits to the market, there is something to note here, while i took 2 months to build it up, i lose it over 7 long months. This reminds me of the an advise i read from a book, it goes like this... "In trading the financial markets, it is important to find a strategy that allows you to still make money despite being wrong 70% of the time." It makes sense doesn't it? How easy is it to win all the time? Or even 50% of the time? I hearsay, if you can win 50% of the time, wall street will queue up waiting to hire you. So if it's easier to lose than win in trading, then shouldn't we come out with a method to still make money while being wrong most of the time?

I am now ready to look forward to the next trade. Volatility is expected to pick up in October and i am tempted to adopt the strategy of selling into the rally since i see no reasons to be long in October where everyone is warning of a brutal month and surely this may affect buying sentiments? How about corporate earnings? Some of the good numbers maybe proped up by cutting down headcounts? I remember sales revenue ain't that good in the last report? It's just that, things are not that bad. With a good mix of good and bad econs numbers over last week, is this a hint that the quaterly results will surprise to the downside? I cannot place my bets based on speculating the results... thus i have to rely on charts. As they were just beginning to break support, i am observing if they are gonna stay firmly below it as i do not want to be whipsawed.

I set my sights at 50-day MA for now... it may act as a support. Index are still showing higher lows thus, i won't short for now and rather, i am looking to long. That's why i am still keeping my CDLHTrust - my only long trade. The next thing i am waiting for would be the 4r1g signal. That is my first sign that market is attempting to turn upwards again.

Now if the above didn't materialise, then we would have formed the early stages of a downtrend with the classic lower high and lower low. Usually the component stocks would lead the way in the fall. Thus watch their support levels for clues.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

 

STI tries to scale 2700 once again

In the previous 3 attempts, STI failed at 2700. In what looks like a Ascending Triangle, amazingly we are gonna try it for the 4th time. Will it be 4th time lucky? Indeed market has been rather sluggish these days. I rather wait at the lower range then to get caught at the high again. The last sell-off saw me scurrying for cover. This time round, i picked a short long and covered my HSI short position at a loss. I thought i would be killed after 21k broke out, looks like heavens gave me a chance to run and i gladly did so.

Of the list i posted last week, the stock i went long is CDLHtrust. Looks like my luck is changing as it is still near the entry price and slightly into profit. But i ain't gonna count my chicken before it is hatched. I wouldn't even consider getting into a second stock at this level. Market is sideway and i thought it only make sense to buy low in a trend, and if there is no trend, avoid buying at resistance is the least i can do. To me, i still have that thought about a sudden plunge in the market. But market as usual will not listen to me and so if it is still climbing, i shall cautiously thread along.

I am currently keen to observe how those 20-day mas are holding. It is flattening and we are hanging precariously by it in many of the stocks. Of course not all stocks will fall. Selective plays are still doing very well. But i just don't feel confident to go into one as yet. I look at the list of screening results i gotten from XPertTrader... C2O, CH-offshore, Cosmosteel, Des studio, Metro, Mermaid, Falcon...etc.. isn't it a textbook warning of a interim top whenever market is lead by such stocks?

Tonight i received quite a number of signals from property stocks. The last round they lead the first assault on 2700 but failed miserably. Nan dao, tomorrow they gonna try again?

Like i said earlier, i am sticking to just one stock at this level. I do not see those obvious signs of a trend, and i do not see rotational interest. Without those two, odds are against me.

I study with interest the chart on SPH tonight, all signs point to a higher price in coming days. This stock though slow has been very consistently heading higher. I shall continue to observe if it breaks the old high. Especially those stocks which are showing a change in trend, if they turn up successfully, then perhaps my CDL will break higher.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

 

Beware - Do not own the stocks i am eyeing

Tonight I present something that has been missing from this blog for a long time - GrowMoney QuickPicks. Please pay special attention to these stocks because these are the stocks i am eyeing. At this stage, you do not want to hold the same stocks that i am in because i am not at the best of my luck. Thus good luck to you if your stocks is one of the following.... haha

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Ausgrp
BakerTech
CDLHTrust
F&N
China Sky
Epure
JiuTian
LiHeng

Other than F&N, the rest are pennies. I think the play is still in the pennies. The fact that the bluies are not running is still a warning to me. My strategy is to long just one of them.... this first win is what i need to know that i am on the right track. China pennies are particularly cute because of their National holiday is coming and also upon seeing HSI breaking key resistance. Having said that, isn't it wierd? With FTSE and HSI breaking into new highs... Nikkei and Dow still ai mai ai mai....

Bluechips really is lacklustre as we are heading near Mt. 2700... nan dao a big pop up is coming? I was trapped in the shooting star last week when 2700 was pierced. I went on a buying spree in an opinion we go to at least 2750... alas it was not to be and i have to run my longs and suffered a blue-black eye. If we pop up again, i will STILL try! Yeah, the rule of the game is, when i lose, i lose small, when i win i must win big which will cover most of the losses if not all. Thus i cannot miss the next big run either up or down otherwise it tilts my equation. I do not need to sit by the sidelines as i feel i am still healthy to trade. I am still thinking objectively and do not hold on to hopes or losses. I know i need to stand aside if i begin to feel revengeful, despair, hopeless, clueless.

I am still short on HSI and no new positions. I will cut my HSI if we do not see a sharp sell-off over the next few days. Bear divergence leh... nan dao i am so suay until bear divergence also work against me? Did i mention Dow also has one? The CPI surprises on the upside... if it was the old days, the market would have sold off... because it means interest rate hike may be coming... right now Obama keeps saying they won't pull out from the bailout too fast too soon... they say recovery may be weak.... now we are very fragile... so a hike is pretty remote.. or is the market running higher so that it has room to fall because a hike is coming? Are they going to risk inflation?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

 

Market Tangos Sideway

Market continues to tango sideway with the exception of Property sector still as weak. The morning gap up couldn't sustain and there was no catalyst to spark the sell-off as yet. I couldn't believe my luck when i saw that HSI will resume trading only in the afternoon. Indeed it is a grim reminder to myself to tone down and not be too agressive in trading. Why no typhoon recently and so coincident ah? I opened a position and there u go, HSI morning session closed.

Anyway i am sticking to my short for now as 21k looks to be selling off everytime we trade there. Is it luring shortists? ot is it ready to kill longists? Market seems to be waiting for some news.. the better than expected US retail sales couldn't spark a rally... i need a set of bad jobs data for now on Thursday.. :P


StraitsAsia: MTL level coming up... my idea is to fade the breakout. If wrong, wait for a natural reaction before somersault to long. This is because, after 6 months of non stop rally, market should take a breather by a brutal correction to wash out weak holders. The situation now is, alot of people are adopting a buy and hope style - "When retrace, no problem it will go up"... with more and more such market participants, soon the supply of buyers will dry up as many are vested. Without buyers, the rally can't sustain.


C2O: This one for the brave hearted. With only 2 trading weeks, the volume already looked set to zoom past the previous week's. Either i long at breakout or at weakness i sapu 1st batch and add on upon breakout. Stop loss got to be tight as this stock is obviously CK kind of stock... last one to hold the baby when the music stops lose.... cruelty of such plays.

Another stock worth mentioning will be Chemoil.. This one i like the volume and price behaviour..however i feel it may be nearing it's end soon. Every push has a target price, we as the under privileged will not know. But based on chart, it is still easy to identify entries. Again, this kind of stock, cannot be stubborn when the music stops. If you look at it's chart, it is easy to notice that every big volume days brings about retracement before another push up.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, September 14, 2009

 

One step at a time


HSI on Daily, Bearish divergence warning and the MTL level on the daily chart. As we are very close to the resistance, i initiated a short position. Some of you may remember i had a short position. Truth be told, in last week's rally to test the 21k resistance, i had covered my short position with a loss. In hindsight, i should have hold. But last week's follow through buying had me fooled into thinking the market may be back to it's rotational best. How naive i was. I no care, both on weekly and daily shout weakness to me and i shall trade accordingly. Once it plunges all those losses will look small.


HSI on the weekly: In what looks like a rising wedge we are seeing a bearish divergence which is a perfect setup for a sell-off. The best part is it should be happening in the next few days. Otherwise it may be invalidated. With the on-going tariffs fight between US and China, all we need is a crazy policy by either side to be the catalyst.


STI: Mount. 2700 looks strong for now. Being resisted 2 times and if we include the end Aug black candle it would be nearly 3 times. Though range bound, i don't like the shooting star with heavy volume on the 10th Sept. It is a warning i must heed. With today's gap down, we may head up to close the gap and after which i may watch if the 20-MA line holds... over the last two occassions, there were whipsaws on this line thus render it's effectiveness as a support useless. I am looking at the 50-day MA for now or otherwise the horizontal low at 2522. Best is to see CS reversal at these two locations or otherwise i remain cautious.

By now we know why the wheels are locked and the wings are tied in the property sector.... the pending announcement already anticipated.. How tricky can this market gets? It's confirmed, it will be more difficult to get a loan to buy private property. Ironically, all the DBSS projects are priced so high... how can a combined income of 8k manage that mortgage? Mana logic? Anyway NS trained me to shout my mouth when it comes to policies.. Like they say the word official has got two mouths. During the sell-off today, i had thrown my Wilmar, DBS, Olam and SC-global picked up last week. I went on a buying spree using the follow through buying as a clue.. however the engine died at the old resistance and i was alarmed by the big volume. As such i had gotten these stocks near their highs, the only sensible thing to do is to get the hell out first and reassess the situation. 4 positions is akind to hoot tua tua.. it didn't workout. Run while the losses is still small.

The heavy volume sell-0ff in property stocks might present a good opportunity. Alot of them are trading near to their 20-day MA line. Break that and we may see more downside. Furthermore there are many bearish divergences around... but i won't short as yet. I had been wrong last week and according to my rules, i should go slow. I am happy if my HSI short makes me some money.... sekidat sekidat jadi bukit... this bukit will comprise of profits for me to risk as well as confidence. Actually it isn't my confidence shaken.. i just feel irritating to not been able to read the market correctly. My focus is not on how much i will make or loss for now, rather, it is important for me to get back the rythem...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

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