Friday, December 30, 2005

Final Trading Day in Stock Market 2005

Stock market began to turn positive today. My watchlist is full of greens but the volume still not as impressive as i would have hoped. I think there is a stark difference of my account in 2004 and 2005. This time round, my money grew as the market went up. In 2004, i am so fearful that i was 100% cash or did something stupid my buying into "dark horse" stocks. From my daily sentiment scan, it's still as mixed. A super rally from the US tonight should help us alot. Otherwise i will still be cautious.

I got greedy today! This is the number 1 killer in trading. After a long wait for the window dressing, my hattrick of profits and some "insider info", I tried to buy more of Rotary that I already owned at 0.485. I thought i saw buying or collection at 0.525 and wanted a piece of that. Chart wise is warning me to be nimble and yet I am bullish on it by my gut feel. I should have known better because gut feel cost me alot in 2004. These are the same mistakes that happens each time in the stock market. 0.530 is a very strong resistance and I knew unless this is taken, otherwise I risk buying at resistance only to see paper loss due to corrections. My order was keyed in at 4:58pm and that's just 2 minutes before the final whistle. I was deliberating from 4:30pm and finally decided to buy 2 mins before it ends. However, my orders were not filled and I live to tell you how greed got to me. Psychology in trading is the utmost important. Master it and I can assure you profits will follow suit.



GrowMoney QuickPick

Robinson & Co. Ltd Ordinary Share 6.0500
Datacraft Asia Ltd Ordinary Share 1.0200
Advanced Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share 0.9100
Metro Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.8000
China Merchants Hldgs(Pacific) Ordinary Shar 0.7150
Surface Mount Tech (Hldgs) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.5900
Samudera Shipping Line Ltd Ordinary Share 0.5750
Celestial Nutrifoods Limited Ordinary Share 0.5600
Portek International Limited Ordinary Share 0.4300
Chuan Hup Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.3950
Asti Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.3450
Man Wah Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.3200
Technics Group Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.3000
Hongguo Intl Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.2600
Global Active Limited Ordinary Share 0.2300
Multi-Chem Limited Ordinary Share 0.2250
CDW Holding Limited Ordinary Share 0.2200
Ausgroup Limited Ordinary Share 0.2150
Sanghai Asia Holdings Limited Ordinary Shar 0.1950
JEL Corporation (Holdings) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.1900
AEI Corporation Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0.1500
Radiance Electronics Limited Ordinary Share 0.1300
Nobel Design Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1150
Netelusion Limited Ordinary Share 0.0800
Tye Soon Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0600
Progen Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0550
Devotion Eco-Thermal Limited Ordinary Share 0.0550
ISG Asia Limited Ordinary Share 0.0500
Plato Capital Limited Ordinary Share 0.0300
Jade Technologies (S) Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0150

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings

Thursday, December 29, 2005

2 more days left for Stock Market to react

US overnight dropped 100 points thereabouts and I started the day wary of a panic selling in our market. To my surprise, nothing of the sort happened. STI closed slightly up with selective buying in some bluechips. With 2 more trading sessions before the year ends, I am still seeing no signs of a rally. It was another mixed day for us and boring at the same time. Neither up nor down, I am getting clueless too. If you have trading positions in the market, I advise you to keep a close eyes on them. If it doesn't goes up soon, i'm pretty sure the law of gravity will bring the index down for a correction so many bearish trader thought was overdue.

Rotary finished with a high volume doji (open= close). It should continue it's attempt to break 0.530. If it doesn't over the next 2 days, I'm taking my profit. My rationale being, with such high volume and no price actions, it could be a distribution in progress. I would be confident if the doji is with light volume because light volume means no one is selling. Look at my MMI chart to see what I mean.


Grow Money QuickPick

Singapore Airport Trml Svcsltd Ordinary Shar 2.3400
United Engineers Ltd Ord Ordinary Share 1.9200
Pearl Energy Limited Ordinary Share 1.4700
SNP Corporation Ltd Ordinary Share 0.9350
Pine Agritech Limited Ordinary Share 0.7350
Fung Choi Prntg & Pckg Grp Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.6500
Aspial Corporation Limited Ordinary Share 0.4500
Federal Int(2000) Ltd Ordinary Share 0.3850
Sinwa Limited Ordinary Share 0.2900
Breadtalk Group Limited Ordinary Share 0.2400
Global Active Limited Ordinary Share 0.2300
Superbowl Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.2200
Tiong Woon Corp Holding Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2150
Europtronic Group Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2000
JEL Corporation (Holdings) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.1750
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1500
Federal Int(2000) Ltd W071207 Warrant 0.1500
Asia Power Corp Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1350
Nobel Design Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1150
Edmi Limited Ordinary Share 0.1050
C2O Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.1050
KXD Digital Entertainment Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0700
ISG Asia Limited Ordinary Share 0.0500
China Infrastructure Hldgs Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.0450
Plato Capital Limited Ordinary Share 0.0300



MMI - follow up, looks like a possible re-entry.


United Engineers - An example of a third chart formation called Flat base breakout.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

A quiet day at the stock market

It was an extremely boring day. We had a very light session and no signs of window dressing activities. Tech sector continued their bullishness and I saw UTAC breaking it's 0.740 resistance. Even my boring Rotary roared into life today! Yes, I owned Rotary the day I charted 2 weeks ago. : ) I bought at breakout then. You can check out the chart for more information. Since it has moved up, i have no qualms in disclosing because i cannot be faulted for selling "koyok" (promoting one's holdings in a bid to help push up) :P Now i shall join the rest of the share holders celebrating and waiting to sell!

We have solid economic data released today and the Q4 GDP to be released on 3rd Jan 2005 is expected to rock Singapore and finally it will beat the Govt forecasted FY05 GDP. Wait a minute, why am I, a technical analyst talking about fundamental part of the market? I used to think everything is in the charts. Why bother to know what's going on? Now, that's very silly of me. Knowing what is going on can allow a better anticipation of market direction. Just like now, i see constant buying rather than selling in market and better than expected GDP, market is likely to go up. Hence I prepare myself to react accordingly when the market goes up. If despite all these good signs and market go crasing down, you can be sure I will stay out of the market.


Rotary


UTAC

GrowMoney QuickPick

Shangri-LA Asia Limited Ordinary Share 13.0000
Pearl Energy Limited Ordinary Share 1.4200
Advanced Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share 0.8850
United Test & Assembly Ctr Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.7450
Chemical Industries (F.E.) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.7000
CSE Global Ltd Ordinary Share 0.7000
United Envirotech Ltd Ordinary Share 0.5300
Rotary Engineering Limited Ordinary Share 0.5200
Singapore Shipping Corp Ltd Ordinary Share 0.4950
Pacific Andes (Holdings) Ltd Ordinary Share 0.4900
Man Wah Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.2900
A-SONIC AEROSPACE LIMITED 0.2550
Breadtalk Group Limited Ordinary Share 0.2400
Global Active Limited Ordinary Share 0.2300
AP Oil International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1550
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1500
Nobel Design Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1150
C2O Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.1000
Asia Dekor Holdings Limited Ordinary 0.0950
Ezyhealth Asia Pacific Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0800
KXD Digital Entertainment Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0700
Tye Soon Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0550
ISG Asia Limited Ordinary Share 0.0500
Ionics EMS Inc Ordinary Share 0.0400
Plato Capital Limited Ordinary Share 0.0300

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings

Monday, December 26, 2005

Last 4 days of trading in 2005

We have come to the last 4 days of trading in 2005. If there is any window dressing or year end rally, it should happen this week. After a jolly merry Christmas, let's seat back and enjoy the green green up arrows on our watchlist! keke

As for market sentiment, it was all the way quiet in December, mixed and nothing to shout about. Look out for tech sector, there are sudden upgrades and we saw how strong it performed last Friday. They could continue. My heartfelt congratulations to those who have the shares! : ) As for Chartered, I won't mind buying back if it try and conqueur 1.34! This is important, there is nothing wrong buying back what you have sold as long as there is another chance of moving up. I remember receiving quite a number of emails telling me how they had sold and did not keep an eye for re-entry only to kick themself for missing the big move.

I have simplified and making use yahoo groups to join my mailing list. : ) I welcome more people to join me. Just put your email address on top at the yahoogroup icon.

Finally, I had plotted 3 charts at http://freecharts.blogspot.com/, they are Cosco, UTAC & Magnecomp. Feel free to take a look if you are interested.

As for the bluechip i been talking about last week, I had casted my sight....hehe ready for actions!!! :D May the rally comes!!!

GrowMoney QuickPick
Shangri-LA Asia Limited Ordinary Share 13.0000
Singamas Container Hldgs Ltd Ordinary Share 3.7000
Jurong Tech Ind Corp Ltd Ordinary Share 1.7100
Ezra Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 1.4600
Chartered Semiconductor Mfgltd Ordinary Shar 1.2700
United Test & Assembly Ctr Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.7250
Chemical Industries (F.E.) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.7000
Aussino Group Ltd Ordinary Share 0.3900
Asia Food & Properties Ltd Ordinary Share 0.3850
Breadtalk Group Limited Ordinary Share 0.2400
Global Active Limited Ordinary Share 0.2300
Flextech Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2150
Hiap Seng Engineering Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2000
Annaik Limited Ordinary Share 0.1550
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1500
Eucon Holding Limited Ordinary Share 0.1200

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings



Ezra

For those with Yahoo instant messaging, decipherlabs is my ID. I will try to be online during trading hours this week.

Saturday, December 24, 2005

Merry Christmas To All Traders!

Merry Christmas !

May our Stock Market finish the year with a Bang!!! :D

Huat ah!!!

Friday, December 23, 2005

First Hattrick in stock market

Hello there! Today marks my happiest moment in trading stocks. I had scored my first hattrick in the stock market! First it was DBS, then came Chartered and finally today I took profit on MMI! : ) Wait! I didn't sell MMI because i want to continue a winning streak. It will be real stupid and childish of me. Well, I had 4 penny shares on hand and I thought i needed one bluechip to balance things up. When market rally, bluechips will be the one leading the stock market rally. Furthermore, I sniffed some distribution at 0.650 level in MMI so decided to play safe and took profit. I'm not saying there will be no more upside, but according to my own risk appetite, I run first. Also, it's a long weekend coming up. I suspect most will prefer to stay out. This is what i am comfortable with. Hence now, i'm hunting for a bluechip to get vested in.

Today we had a down day. No worries! It's still pretty mixed. The volume traded does not suggest a complete meltdown happening. Just as I done my breakouts in the long direction, i did the same southwards. Hence I conclude we can still go anywhere. It's probably a profit taking session today. We are down to the last 5 trading sessions of 2005. Let's see if the "fun" managers will dress the index nice nice to cross over to 2006. hehe

I'm truly sorry but I won't reveal my holdings to the public because i do not wish to be accused of misleading the mass. I am but a trader who is still learning and willing to share what he saw and learnt online so that it will benefit all who visited. But rest assured i will post my losses and wins here so that all can learn my mistakes together. Go to my archives and you can witness how i shared my losses too. I hope you can understand.


MMI-Why I took profit


Ho Bee- When I first buy, they call it hay bee...now i call it my lobster! :D Because it stunned everyone by the strong upmove! But yesterday 1 director sold 100 lots. So I'm keeping a close watch.


GrowMoney QuickPick

Chemical Industries (F.E.) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.7000
MMI Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.6450
Eu Yan Sang International Ltd Ordinary Share 0.6150
New Toyo Int Hldgs Ltd Ordinary Share 0.4850
Singapore Exchangemblecw060406 Warrant 0.4600
Federal Int(2000) Ltd Ordinary Share 0.3600
Seksun Corporation Ltd Ordinary Share 0.3100
Apex-Pal International Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2400
Global Active Limited Ordinary Share 0.2300
TPA Strategic Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2300
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1500
Federal Int(2000) Ltd W071207 Warrant 0.1300
Southern Packaging Group Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1250
Matex International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1200
Transview Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.1200
Jadason Enterprises Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1150
GRP Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1050
Netelusion Limited Ordinary Share 0.0900
Ultro Technologies Limited Ordinary Share 0.0550
Ionics EMS Inc Ordinary Share 0.0400

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Near misses in Stock Market

Another mixed day. But hey! Nikkei went up 300 + points! What is our market doing? I am very disappointed and contemplating to cover US market soon. It's a world class market with so many counters that I'm sure I can have breakouts everyday! Best of all, I can trade both directions! This brings me to the next question, why SGX doesn't allow a computerised cut loss order? Anyone knows the answer, feel free to post in the shout box. Thanks.

FungChoi, acting exactly what I had deciphered in October. It took 8 weeks or so for another breakout. Goes to show again, Patience is very much needed in trading!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/1689/1183/1600/2005Nov-Fung%20Choi-800x415.gif

ST-Eng, another counter that i analysed correctly. Patience required here too.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/1689/1183/1600/2005Dec-ST%20Engg-800x415.png

For those who followed my blog long enough, i'm sure by now you have witnessed these great runs. Go search my blog's archives, there are some waiting to rocket off i'm sure! :D

I am holding 4 trading positions now and getting ready to harvest in the much anticipated rally. It has taken an awful long time but i'm sticking with them! I seen too many of my own analysis correct and rocket off. Kepland treated me the worst! I missed out on it's 100% ROI because i ran out of patience and sold a day earlier! Incredibly heartache.
http://growmoney.blogspot.com/2005/10/stupidity-or-greedy-i-am-both.html
Hence this time round, i'm determined to stick to them till the charts say dump!

GrowMoney Quick Pick
Wow, my quickpick list not bad hor, despite market going no where, still can get some correct. Actually these are no random picks. They are filtered from the market daily according to a set of rules consisting of price and volume. Volume, it's the essential in my analysis!

Singapore Exchange Limited Ordinary Share 2.9300
TPV Technology Limited Ordinary Share 1.6200
Chartered Semiconductor Mfgltd Ordinary Shar 1.1900
Chemical Industries (F.E.) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.7000
Innovalues Precision Limited Ordinary Share 0.6550
Fung Choi Prntg & Pckg Grp Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.6050
Singapore Exchangemblecw060406 Warrant 0.4600
YHI International Limited Ordinary Share 0.4050
Sunray Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.2900
Global Active Limited Ordinary Share 0.2300
Hiap Seng Engineering Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2050
Memtech International Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1800
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1500
Asia Power Corp Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1300
Matex International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1200
Transview Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.1200
FDS Networks Group Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1000

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Stepping aside of Stock Market as an insurance

There are time to buy, time to sell and time to stand aside. I believe this is the time to stand aside. During this time it will be very easily to be trapped by the ding dong and babysit the stock. Day after day, we are seeing lacklustre volume in trading. The Stock market currently is holding up slightly above the water. I do not think we should read too much into the market at this time. Of course that's excluding those counters that had declined with shocking volume. Cosco is one sinking ship. I prefer to stay out of the Marine Sector for now. It is one good example of how fundamental reasons do not guarantee it's share price always. I have been trapped far too often in the past. I will publish my trades of 2004 before the year end to show you how stupidly i was throwing money away in 2004!

Since the market very quiet, i will spend more time looking at longer time frame chart of the STI tonight. On the weekly chart, the down trend started early 2000 and lasted till Apr'03. It's a whopping 3 years. From 2003 to now, we are in our third bullish year. The last bullish run started in Nov'98 and ends Jan'00 and that's 2 years. IT bubble burst was the reason. With our oil bubble bursting, market testing all time highs, no wonder so many people are calling for a bear market. How wrong can they get? I mean all the odds are stacked against a continuing bull market. One of the reasons why i prefer not to invest in value now is I feel it's more worthwhile to invest after the market crash. Imagine buying SIA at $6 again? Or DBS at $7? How about Singtel at $1.10? That is the kind of price i will do value investing! hehe Now, I prefer to trade. *wink*

Regarding Elections, many think it's a catalyst for a rally. In 2001 where we had our last elections, it was in the midst of the bear market. Indeed it lifted the market quite abit before continuing the downtrend. Too bad I don't have 1997's data to compare otherwise my deduction can be more complete.


GrowMoney Quick Pick

Jurong Tech Ind Corp Ltd Ordinary Share 1.8600
Singapore Food Industries Ltd Ordinary Share 1.1700
Chemical Industries (F.E.) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.7000
The Ascott Group Limited Ordinary Share 0.7000
Innovalues Precision Limited Ordinary Share 0.6350
New Toyo Int Hldgs Ltd Ordinary Share 0.4700
Singapore Exchangemblecw060406 Warrant 0.4600
Cathay Organisation Holdings Ordinary Share 0.2550
Global Active Limited Ordinary Share 0.2300
CDW Holding Limited Ordinary Share 0.2150
Hiap Seng Engineering Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2050
JEL Corporation (Holdings) Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.1850
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1500
Matex International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1200
Serial System Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1150
FDS Networks Group Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1000
Netelusion Limited Ordinary Share 0.0900
Tri-M Technologies (S) Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0800
Sunway Intl Hldgs Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0500
Ionics EMS Inc Ordinary Share 0.0400
Yongnam Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.0300
Internet Technology Grp Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0250

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings

Monday, December 19, 2005

NKF saga exposed! Corporate Governance? Fundamental Investing? Ignore Technical Analysis?

To date about 70 readers has joined my mailing list. Thank you! 430 of you are still considering i suppose. come come join me! : )

By now, i'm sure all of you have heard how a $1 donation to NKF has resulted in only 10 cents to the patients. Also, how they inflated the number of patients under their care. Absolutely disgusting! This brought about my question on fundamental analysis. There are many people who disliked Technical Analysis and ignore it's importance. They prefer fundamental or value investing. They say market cannot be timed accurately. Now with the NKF sage, let me remind all of us how fundamental believers can be exposed to high risks too. ACCS, CitiRaya, CAO and not to mention many of those China starlets that has sunk to the bottom of the sea bed together with our fellow countrymen's hard savings. Technical analysis will spot the selling before the bad news is out to the general public. I bring out all these not to turn people into technical analysis believers. My purpose is to highlight to you that both fundamental and technical are important! For me, after my many losses, i realise it is wiser to trade fundamentally sound companies. You can bet that I ignore those technical buy signals for fundamentally unsound companies. It's scary because the charts that I read can be drawn by the people manipulating the stock. Remember DMX? Well, at most i earn lesser. But remember, it also means lesser risk. A very good company will not rally 5 cents today and decline 5 cents next day. (Discount natural disaster or Terrorists attacks)

Stock Market continues to be trading light. I think many traders are still on holidays. Fr0m my daily sentiment scan, I see more buying than selling still. Although it's only a slight difference. Cosco really caught my eye. With it's stock split coming up, sound fundamentals and yet the price slides. On November 24th, I charted Cosco and saw RSI weakness. Please see the link below. It was never a buy for me because it never break the resistance line. Most people will think and want to fish lower, but i truly believe buying high isn't a bad thing because at that point, selling is diminishing and loads of buyers coming in. Why not join them?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/1689/1183/1600/2005Dec-Cosco%20Corp-800x415.png


GrowMoney Quick Pick

Fibrechem Technologies Limited Ordinary Shar 0.7400
Celestial Nutrifoods Limited Ordinary Share 0.5850
Trek 2000 Int'l Ltd Ordinary Share 0.5100
United Pulp & Paper Co. Ltd Ordinary Share 0.5000
Singapore Exchangemblecw060406 Warrant 0.4100
Longcheer Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.3850
Federal Int(2000) Ltd Ordinary Share 0.3500
Kingboard Copper Foil Hdgs Ltd Ordinary Shar 0.2700
Hiap Seng Engineering Ltd Ordinary Share 0.2050
DW Holding Limited Ordinary Share 0.2000
Sin Soon Huat Limited Ordinary Share 0.1850
Easyknit Intl Hldg Ltd 5000 Ordinary Share 0.1740
Memtech International Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1700
Multivision Intel Surv Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1700
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1500
Federal Int(2000) Ltd W071207 Warrant 0.1300
Matex International Limited Ordinary Share 0.1200
Esmart Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.1100
Eucon Holding Limited Ordinary Share 0.1100
C2O Holdings Limited Ordinary Share 0.1000
FDS Networks Group Ltd Ordinary Share 0.1000
Netelusion Limited Ordinary Share 0.0900
Sim Siang Choon Limited Ordinary Share 0.0850
SM Summit Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0850
Tri-M Technologies (S) Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0800
Addvalue Technologies Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0700
Oriental Food (Holdings) Ltd. Ordinary Share 0.0700
Sunlight Group Hldg Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0350
Abterra Ltd Ordinary Share 0.0250Goldtron Limited Ordinary Share 0.0150

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, December 18, 2005

Stock Market & Casino

I'm back from my holiday at Genting Highlands! Nice weather, expensive food, long journey and a smoky casino. After checking into the hotel and the surroundings, looks like casino is the only natural place to head to. keke I didn't really have a comfortable time around the casino. I lost during my first hour. haha! Then my trading instincts took over! I began to look for games that gives me a big big win when i am correct, and then a small loss when i'm incorrect. Finally found Roulette! Using my new found system, I manage to recover my losses in the next 30 mins and my profits in 10 mins! That's it, i stood up said thank you to Lady Luck and left the casino with my expenses in Genting fully paid! haha To be specific, excluding hotel and coach fare hor. Something that is important to trading is working as well in the Casino. This is the philisophy I often remind myself of, "It is how much you win when you are correct and how much you lose when you are incorrect that matters" The long bus journey is also perfect for me to review my past trades and what I had learnt along the way. I realised, all these are very valueable! And in the spirit of GrowMoney Blog, IT SHOULD BE SHARED!!! :D I'm going to write e-books and send to you for free! For more information, join my mailing list!

Back to the stock market, in my absense, it was still a pretty mixed market. Even a better than expected NOX data fails to spark a rally. Again, i am fully invested in the market after I cash out of DBS and Chartered recently. Sometimes I wonder if i'm taking too big a risk. With the market directionless, i have actually taken a bullish anticipation. What were my reasons? Why aren't I bearish? It was because I seen buying more than selling during the last few weeks. Is smart money buying before the X'mas rally? Whatever it is, i'm all ready to harvest when my anticipation is right. Also, from my last dinner with an aquaintance from the Marine Sector, I learnt to exercise caution for the sector in late 2006.

Wooo...I missed out my Celestial. Spotted it on Wednesday night and saw it closed up 4 cents by Friday. One by one, these breakouts picks continue to score excellent success. It somehow gives me the confidence for my next breakout buy and my current holding. William J. O'Neil said, "Buying correct solves most of the problem". I happily agree to that.

There are many trading blogs springing up nowadays. It is only good for the general public. We have more options now rather than the usual Forums and Analyst's reports. As a trader, it is important that you find a style that suit you best. Do not just buy on recommendations or what you see in the blogs. Well, i do not know how the other blogs trades, but i can explain mine. My breakout picks are not for contra. It requires patience and I will sell when i detect selling(distribution) in the counter. This kind of trading, requires me to decipher the market daily after market close. The good thing is, I won't need to monitor during trading hours. It fits me perfectly as I am still an employee. With my monthly pay check coming in from my employer, another couple of hundreds from the stock market time to time is sufficient for me at this point. I was silly during my first year when i thought it's easy to live off trading full time. With the thought of no income at the back of the head, i began to build a cannot lose mentality and it affected me psychologically. And when you are very afraid to lose, you often make bad trades and miss out winners. These days, I can trade with confidence and yet focus on my career. The idea is simple. If I can earn 10% per annum from the market, I will be able to live off trading full time by the time I have 500k as capital as it will mean a 50k per annum profits. As i slowly grow my capital to 500k target, i am focussing on perfecting my trading skills. This way, when I have the capital, I am ready to trade full time.

By the way, please vote if you still want my GrowMoney quickpick. Just type "quick pick" in the shoutbox above. I will gather the count. Thanks!

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Stock Market no strength to go up nor down (hotel grand central, celestial)

Alright, there is really nothing going on in the stock market after my daily sentiment scan. It's getting boring but it also mean highly dangerous as it can break either way. We are left with 2 days of trading for the week. The last few weeks of actions has seen late buying towards the end of the week. Will history repeat? Let's see! Perhaps you didn't see the anxiety I had today. When I heard from my trading kaki that Nikkei is down 300 points, I was worried our market will break downwards. Alas, it stood like a rock and closed mixed.

Everyone's breakout system should be different. Remember, Growmoney blog only shouts breakout when there is chart formation with volume. Why? Because to me, chart formation more or less shows the controlled consolidation and distribution by smart money. This is the system that i'm most comfortable with. Yes I missed many other "illiquid" stock's breakout, but my fewer picks so far hasn't disappoint. Hence I shouldn't be too greedy and start taking risk with "illiquid" stocks.

By the time you read this article, I'm already on my way to Genting Highlands. What to do? Stock market is so directionless ping pong up and down. Hence I decided to "growmoney" up the highlands. hehe While i'm away, I hope you continue to support my humble site which has been providing you with timely information. Let Google pay for my work. Thanks! :D tua tua huat ah!!!!!!


Hotel Grand Central


Celestial

My whole list of breakouts 50 days average scan
After the recent ignorance of Decipher where he ignores "illiquid" stocks and goes on to wonder why they rally. Here I provde the list for you to enjoy. I call it the Growmoney quickpick! :D

Celestial Nutrifoods Limited Ordinary Share
Multivision Intel Surv Ltd Ordinary Share
Midas Hldgs Limited Ordinary Share
Lifebrandz Ltd. Ordinary Share
Want Want Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share
Meghmani Organics Limited Ordinary Share
Technics Group Holdings Ltd Ordinary Share
Pacific Andes (Holdings) Ltd Ordinary Share
Cortina Holdings Limited Ordinary Share
HTL Int'l Holdings Limited Ordinary Share
Jade Technologies (S) Ltd Ordinary Share
AP Oil International Limited Ordinary Share
Hotel Grand Central Ltd Ordinary Share
Pharmesis International Ltd. Ordinary Share
Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd Ordinary Shar
Multi-Chem Limited Ordinary Share
TEE International Limited Ordinary Share
Sim Siang Choon Limited Ordinary Share
Burwill Holdings Limited Ordinary ShareColex
Holdings Limited Ordinary Share
Intraco Limited Ordinary Share

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Evening Star Formed on the STI (FibreChem, Midas Holdings)

As mentioned yesterday, an evening star is formed on the STI daily chart. This is a bearish reversal signal. However we can take consolation because it is on the daily chart and that the volume isn't high enough for me to dump all my stocks. Daily chart is known for it's volatility and hence I adopt a reactive view on the market for now.

From the daily sentiment scan, although we had a down day, again there was more buying then selling. Now this is really puzzling me. If we have buying constantly and yet market doesn't go into a rally, what does it mean? Will we finally run out of buyers and go into a downfall? Or sellers will give up and join the buyers? Tech sector suffered a heavy selling today. I sold my Chartered last Thursday after I sensed weak volume on price incline which is one of my many sell warnings. Also, counters like Beauty China, Midas, Fibre Chem, MMI, HuanHsin where I had highlighted before all showing strengths. This is important to me psychologically as it gives me the confidence to trust my trading system. My immediate work is to research more on illiquid stocks. I simply cannot sit back and watch them rocket off after I ignored them. Darco, TPV, Wingtai are some of them. However I also have many illiquid stocks that have faulty breakouts. So this is a real tough area to explore.

Please continue to forward my website to your friends or whoever you think my site will help. Let's stop the losses and bring in the profits!!! Huat ah! :D


FibreChem - Ignored by the ignorant Decipher


Midas - Ignored by the ignorant Decipher

Monday, December 12, 2005

Stock Market though up but not convincing (People's Food)

I am happy that the market went up today. However doing my daily sentiment scan, most of the STI components did not have better than 14 days average volume. The STI chart can look awful with an evening star if we have a selling day tomorrow. Despite closing better, i suspect the index is very much lifted by Jardine Matheson. The other bluechips in Technology Sector, Property Sector were having an off day sleeping with less than average volume. Marine is worse as they are hit by profit taking after last week's rally. Cosco caught my eye. Why is this counter which is going to stock split unwantedd by public? Or is there accumulation going on? Oil and offshore related too had a quiet session. When all these sectors sprang to life.....2399 here we come!

I am still waiting for the accross the board buying to occur...that will be my greatest chance to cash out of my positions in profits! :D haha

I'm like a striker now on a hattrick...my third back to back win! The best moment in my short trading career. After dumping my HG Metal & Hibernated, I have found my own style of trading. It is very suitable to my working schedule as i do not have to monitor intra-day. The chances of loss is slim while profit will go a long way north. Almost 80% of my breakout counters turn out to be winner than loser but not for contra though. No doubt there are room for improvement. For example, i notice the "illiquid" stocks I ignore often surprise me. Darco is one of them. There are actually lots of such "illiquid" counters appearing on my list everynight. My reason for ignoring is because of the high probability of manipulation. I had lost on Sunpower & Anwell before. These are very "illiquid" stocks and the breakouts were false. That was why I turn to select liquid stocks only. Another change in my approach is to analyse the sector in play and daily sentiment. This allows me to know the exact buying or selling interest in the market. This is extremely important inorder to know when to buy, stand aside or sell.


People's Food - Japanese Candlesticks Reversal signal

Sunday, December 11, 2005

Stock Market Rally coming? (HuanHsin)

Many people were expecting a year end rally to close the year with. Reading my past articles, i realised more buying than selling in the stock market is observed. It is the same for last Friday's actions. We close the session up. Although the overall volume is light, a check on my daily sentiment scan shows that there were good buying with volume in most counters. Is the rally finally going to come? I remain positive of that. Why else will there be continuous buying in the market? From the STI charts, my humble reading say it's coming. Well I was half wrong in my anticipation last week where I expected late flourish for the week. While we had a down day on Thursday, we did have one on Friday though. Hence I remain positive of growing more money this month! :D I do look abit stupid selling Chartered on Thursday. Ah well, nevermind, profit is profit. No one can sell at the exact top anyway. More importantly, I have cash on my hand for another trade! :D

Tomorrow is the IPO for Genting. It's going to be fast and furious. So many people talked about it. Let's see how it will perform. I'm sure whichever way, it will be nothing short of fireworks!



HuanHsin - Breakout

Friday, December 09, 2005

Stock Market remains resilence to selling

Time now 1am. I'm just back from a hangout along Orchard with an old pal of 20 over years. Thanks to technology, I was able to download my SGX end of day data using wireless broadband provided free by Macdonald's! haha China Sq has become my favourite spot to download data quickly for free whenever I'm on the road! hehe

After my daily sentiment scans, I conclude that the selling today is infact good for a rally. Why? It's because more counters with better volume incline than declined. It tells me that buyers are still keen. With an intra day low of -13, we close -6 ..... there were some late bargain hunting. Also let's not forget SPH's Ex-D could impact the index abit.


Chartered Semi Con - I sold Chartered at 1.32 today. My reasons were, it is floating at highs and failed to clear 1.34 after numerous attempts and the volume has became thin. My thoughts were, buyers could be exhausted and selling can begin for normal corrections bearing in mind, the last selling was at 1.18 thereabouts. Also, I anticipated market to close above resistance today and tomorrow. However it closes down today. My anticipation is wrong. So I decided to protect my profit on Chartered as tech stocks are volatile. I wouldn't rule out more upside for chartered, but i'm sticking to my trading system rather than pure gut feel. Indeed, the $0.14 profit is decent enough for me to say Thank you, see you again to Chartered! haha I am still holding on to other stocks as I see resilence in the market. Registered my second back to back win after DBS. : ) Cheers! Few months back my blog is more on how not to lose money. This time round I can confidently say, it's now really on how to grow money! :D

Thursday, December 08, 2005

Stock Market Directionless (Starhub, Metro, Rotary)

STI closes marginally positive on yet another lacklustre trading volume. We are pretty much directionless for now. After completing my daily sentiment scan, I saw mixed sentiment. There are volume in both decline and incline. The sector I noticed was oil & offshore related. One of them broke out of it's 50 days volume average, Rotary. The other sector is telecommunications. M1 and starhub appeared in my list. But comparing M1 and starhub, I prefer the latter as it has chart formation and good volume characteristics. We are left with 2 days of trading for this week. I will not like it if STI closes at resistance or worse if it close down the resistance line. If it's really a bullish tone, we should see STI clears 2353 there abouts.


Starhub - sudden increase in volume and activities


Rotary breakouts - oil and offshore play


Metro - Why i missed it.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Stock Market Stunned by a little bee

Let me start the day with an introduction to yet another new service! GrowMoney Insurance !
No one plans to fail, but many fails to plan. Through this site I hope to discuss insurance products or issues as I found many of my friends either don't know what policies they hold or understand too little of their rights. It is so unfair to blame insurance when in the first place people buy blindly (me included). haha! Ok let's continue to the market sentiment.

STI sank by about 1% on a volume greater than the 14 day average. Doesn't sound too positive to me. Further analysis through the 758 stocks showed that all is not lost yet as most of the bluechips remained unhurt. There were more volume in going up than down. Hence I remain cautiously confident of a higher high in our stock market.

Looking at the STI chart plotted on Sunday, we had hit the resistance line and fall back. I see support at 2298 there about. If we are able to touch and rebound off there, it will record a third higher low and we can be on our way to a third higher high. A sign of up trend. I remember many analysts calling for a correction before the Christmas rally. Well, this is it, in the next few days we will know. If you had followed my journal, it is interesting to see how i was unable to find a good risk/reward stocks to invest in since Sunday. Coincidence? ; )

No charts tonight as the general direction is unclear. To me, it is more risk than reward to get invested at this stage. I did saw Metro Holdings and Labroy Marine broke out of 50 days average volume. But since there were no visible chart patterns, i prefer to opt out.

Good luck to all the brave hearted! : )

Monday, December 05, 2005

Stock Market Lessons learnt on MMI & Meiban


Sorry, webhost blogspot went down during the morning. Free hosting service la, so bo pian. :) hehe

Stock market Daily scans yielded nothing fantastic. There were no good risk/reward stocks to highlight to everyone. It's a rather mixed market day, slightly more to the upside. Bluechips were mainly quiet. Small caps getting more attention. We saw how there were selling during the intra day and we close up with late buying. Late buying is always good, it's a show of bullish sentiment. However the volume is too thin to judge, so it can still swing anyway. Let's see how the rest of the week develops.

Today, i'm going to talk about 2 mei meis....MMI and Meiban. Why you should sell Meiban and buy MMI.


MMI - I was fully invested in other stocks and had to give this runaway baby a miss. No wonder they say the rich gets richer. Maybe I should have sold my stocks struggling at resistance. Did I fall in love with my stocks just because it's given me a 20% paper profit? I must flush this relationship out of my system!! Am not going to miss another MMI.


Meiban - the shooting star

Sunday, December 04, 2005

Interesting week ahead

Surprise suprise! After going through my scans, I could not find any good risk/reward trade. I think it is the time now for those vested early to reap in the rewards. Unfortunately, it is also the time where the uninformed average investor buys at a poorer risk/reward factor. It is a known fact that only 10% of investors are winners, 90% are losers. Some of the most obvious counters that ran away were from the technology sector where time and again I have noticed the light trading volume and low price volatility. For those with 100% cash, fear not! I have also notice some counters undergoing normal corrections. One of them is HuanHsin. When it's time to look at them, you will hear it first from growmoney blog!

After studying the charts posted in the November Archives, I found the following important clues regarding breakouts.

1) There are heavy volume on up days than down days.
2) There should be a shake out on heavy volume near the bottom of the chart formation.
3) Low price volatility on low volume is the key to successful breakout.

I'm sure there are more, but the above are the most common clues. The most important thing is, these are exactly what William J. O'Neil wrote in his book. It happened in the US market, it happened over the last 50 years and it happened in our market in this time! If you want to own this book, you can find it at the local bookstore or at my new site growmoneyshop.blogspot.com . At this site, i recommend books that I found most useful in my trading education.



Straits Times Index - crucial time for the bluechips.



Huan Hsin

Friday, December 02, 2005

Unexpected happened? No way, the clues were there

With overnight US trade retraced badly, alot of pessimism crept up in local market again. However a strong performance from Hang Seng & Nikkei proves too much for our local traders to ignore. We close up with late buying! Late buying is very important. If you had followed my journal so far, you would have noticed late buying often leads to higher highs. As for the sector to focus on, Tech sector, I think i have been highlighting for the last 2 weeks. I saw light trading volume upon correction after a breakout. The whole sector was behaving like this. Hence it gives me great confidence in this sector.

The time now is 1:25am and Dow jones is at 97 points, Nasdaq 28 points! This should encourage buying tomorrow morning. As it is a Friday, late afternoon profit taking can happen.

There are no breakout counters today. Mostly are continuation of the uptrend after the corrections. I will only showcase good risk/reward counters in my blog. Daily sentiment scan showed that it was a mixed market. However, plastic and Tech stocks had the most volume hence remain the likely stocks with more upside. I personally did not like plastic due to it's sensitiveness to Oil price. However it's current run proves that, opinions are often wrong. If I had stuck to the technicals, I will be a few percentage richer! :D

This weekend, I will be checking out on the breakout rally counters and spot any similarities. Be sure to tune in!

Thursday, December 01, 2005

Tech stocks leads in rally (Singapore Stock Exchange)

We started with a bang and ended with a fart. Yes, that's how the STI daily chart looks like now with a big black candle with breakout volume today. Incase you didn't realise, we are quite similar to how US ended previously. However, upon completion of my daily sentiment scan of the market, more buying than selling. Most noticeable is tech sector. I was correct in anticipating that it will lead the next rally. It really feels good to know my thoughts and analysis is insync with the market. This should enable me to make informed decision.

Even I was tempted into selling my DBS babies today. After considering for a few minutes, basic trading rules reminded me that I should sell. My reasons were, DBS had tried a time too many to break $16.50. Also the babies I bought expires in Feb'06, the time decay effect will kick in. I am tempted to wait for 0.30 to sell but I tell myself this is babies and not a share. The time decay will corrode the price. So in the end, I decide a profit is a profit. Only fools wait to sell right at the top because no one can do that!

I noticed many of my friends had a similar problem. They are only concerned with "Have you make money overall?" My answer to them is honest and simple. "No" Then they will think they are speaking to a fool who losses money in the market. But what they did not know is the amount of hardwork I put in to research why I had lost. Infact, the bleeding stopped this year and I have been winning consistently in recent months. It is not how much you lost in the past that decides your future. Rather, it is how much you are going to make! Be forward looking, why bother to look bad and judge? They will not understand the whole trading psychology and hence I stop short at that. So one day, I hope when they hear about my growmoney blog from their friends, they will realise I am no fool in trading. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a student of the market.

No breakout counters today because they are way above my buying levels. If you scroll down or read the November Archives, you will notice most of them rally today. This is the importance of my trading system, chart formations + volume breakout == high chance of profits!

If you don't already know, I have 2 more sites to help the trading community.
freecharts.blogspot.com
begintrading.blogspot.com

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Late buying in stock market ( Media Ring )

For the umpteen times, another light volume day. A fellow trader reminded me that it is the roll over date of Simsci futures and hence the stocks can move unusually. He added that, today's actions shouldn't be taken too seriously. US stock market corrected slightly on the Dow but about 1% on nasdaq. On any other day, tech stocks will be greatly hit by such a performance by nasdaq but they were resilient today. I continue to fancy this sector as the trading volume is light and price range very tight. When it breaks out, so will STI! Hey wait! how about banking and property counters? They have been largely forgotten. *wink*

The last time late buying was seen, Nov 22nd (scroll down), it was a superb rally next day. Will history repeats itself? The late buying can only occur because smart money knew what will and is going to happen.

Breakout wise, Plastic stocks continue to register gains on heavier volume more than 50 days average! Fu-yu, Meiban, Huan Hsin & Fischer Tech appeared on my list. I shall continue to snub it. : ) As the wise man always say, price doesn't travel 1 straight line up. I shall wait for corrections and judge it by the volume. Crude oil futures continue to slide, this helps the plastic stocks. I prefer MediaRing to chart, it should extend it's gains today from here.

If you don't already know, I have 2 more sites to keep your trading hours fun!

freecharts.blogspot.com
begintrading.blogspot.com


Media Ring - The time is ripe!

Monday, November 28, 2005

Singapore Stock Exchange Awaits Directions from US (BeautyChina)

Even a superb trade results of Singapore Manufacturers data could not stimulate a convincing move. Most of the talk in town is of a correction to STI before the move up north. This could have lead to the lacklustre volume as traders/investors alike prefered to stay sideline. Another factor could be the US market. We are waiting for brother Wall Street for directions. Nikkei had rallied 200 points and yet our market is looking west. The finish today on the market is not very comforting. No doubt it had stayed above support 2280, but the light volume is a concern. It can swing anyway now. I am taking cue from the US since I smell the market relying on it.

On my Daily sentiment scan, same as days before. No clear directions yet. Although I see some counters breakout in good volume but the price movement is small. This could be a shakeout, distribution. Breakout wise, of the many charts that I went through, I like BeautyChina best. You can see the chart below. As for the rest, I prefer to err on the safe side. These include plastic stocks. I will wait for the higher low, higher high or chart formation to time my entry. For all we know, it could be a bull trap.

I have also started 2 more websites as Services provided by GrowMoney Blog. For the first, a Beginner's guide to trading. I will share my knowledge accumulated all these years to newbies who want to trade/invest but don't know where to start. I have received lots of help. Now that i'm comfortable with how much I know, I want to share. Second website is for chart requests. During quiet market time, I simply cannot find a breakout charts. Hence I can make use of my free time to help fellow traders who want a second opinion on stocks they are eyeing.



BeautyChina: this one has financial instituitional support

Sunday, November 27, 2005

What's next after a quiet week in the Stock Market?

Due to the increasing support of my blog, I am promoting a new service for my readers, "chart requests". : ) You can email me your chart requests and I will give my best analysis on the top requested chart on my site daily if time permits. Please note that I will only analyse liquid stocks. Rational is simple, Technical Analysis works best with liquid (High Volume) stocks. Well, this is my safeguard against manipulated movement.

As for breakout shouts at 4:30pm. After 2 weeks of trial, I realise studying and scanning the end of day data will spring up better opportunities rather than jumping to buy before market closes. However if there is really a very good breakout, i will still shout before market close so no harm logging to my site from 4:30 pm to 5pm. Infact, some readers have posted very good breakout shouts at my ideas corner. : ) Thanks guys!

Doing my sentiment scan on the weekly charts, nothing bearish was spotted. There were no major selling in the market. Infact during the thanksgiving holidays, we had very light trading volume. I especially like the light volume on Friday and selling. It means people are taking profits. This group of people will in turn be buying back the shares at a later time, thus the uptrend can and will be sustainable. Majority of the counters traded with volume less than their weekly average. No clear directions yet but let's not get complacent. Keep looking out on the slightest hint of buying or selling by the big boys. Where can you find this info? Of course you will hear it first from Growmoney blog!

If you find my site useful and can relate to your psychology in trading, do recommend to your friends. I intend to build a very large reader base and then move to my own website. Information will still be kept free and donations flowing to charity! : D


A look at Dow Jones. No charts tonight as I prefer not to base my analysis on light volume trading.

Thursday, November 24, 2005

STI more upside

I found 2 more breakouts to add to the one shouted at 4:30pm. Sorry I had to discount Wingtai because the chart formation and indicators doesn't look attractive to me after close examination. After my daily sentiment scan where i decipher the market by volume and price actions, I discover most bluechips are still sleeping. Volume are not even close to daily average. In addition, the selling today is pretty well absorbed. Weak holders could have tempted to take some profits first as there is still uncertainty in the air. I especially like the technology sector. After the recent rally, most of them retraced on feather light volume.
With STI now resting at 2306, I think my target of 2350 is achievable when technology sector and banking sector rally again.

For those unaware, Cosco stock split 2 for 1! MapleTree bought more properties (this explains why it's volume was so heavy yesterday). Semb Kim, I mentioned lots of insider buying and it was a breakout as reported yesterday. Guess what? This morning it released a piece of positive news... now we know why the heavy volume yesterday. Is it fair to us the retail investors?

I would like to re illiterate that breakouts are not for contra. It can retrace up to 8 sessions before another push up. Also it is not a holy grail. Infact there is non in this world. No system is perfect. So please have your own cut loss discipline in place. If you review past charts, you will notice how breakouts will continue to rock their way past resistance after retracement.




UTAC - breakout in 50 days average volume


Raffles Medical - Flat base breakout.


Aqua Terra - breakout of 14 days volume

Breakouts!

Raffles Medical

Wingtai

Charts Galore!

Time is 1:37am now...i'm still not asleep yet. There are simple too many charts for me to post! :D Decided on the best 8. 8 means huat ma! keke Oh before I forget, I was out for lunch today, and as i stepped out of the car, a flower (those from the trees small small yellow colour one) floated right into my shirt's pocket! :D I thought it was good omen. And needless to say, we all saw how market rally in the afternoon! hahaha

On a more serious note, the market is behaving exactly what I had anticipated. Please read from Sunday's article right though to today inorder to understand what I meant. There are still lots of people not sucked into this bullish run yet. They are still non believers and hoping for retracement and corrections. This is good. Because one by one, they will be tempted by their greed and start to get vested. Not to forget those people who sell into strength. That will be how our STI will move 1 step down, 3 steps up. With the FOMC deciding to stop hiking the interest rate, stocks flew high today. As I am typing this last sentence, US market is rallying due to oil drop. Many people shouted for US market to correct. But time and again it defies. Trading is not so straight forward. Expect the unexpected! Just make sure you sell or buy when what you anticipated happened!


SembKim - Lots of insider buying!


MapleTree - Classic Morning Star!


Huan Hsin - Bullish divergence


Ho Bee - for the bad times and good times.


HL Asia - Another round of rally?


DBS - $17 dream or reality?


Cosco - resume of uptrend?


Chartered SemiCon - A try at $1.40?

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Selling in the day, Late buying Seen

Everyone got a rude shock when market opened today...it was widely believed that US had rallied overnight and we should have our own version. How wrong we were! Market begin to show weakness right from the start and even I was worried. What did I do? I choose not to look at the actions. Yes! This is one way to stop fear manifest in me. Psychology in trading is very important. Find ways to contain your fear and greed! At closing, we saw late buying and index pushed to close -4 versus a heavy -13 experienced intra day. This is very healthy for the uptrend. My best rosy picture is selling for the early part of the week and close up strongly by the end of the week.

No breakout gems today. I saw some counters like Hyflux, Cosco, MFS, KS Energy, bio-sensor breakout in 50 days average volume. However they do not have a convincing chart formation to compliment with. Please refer to the following formula.

Chart formation + Volume Breakout == Higher probability of massive profit

Chart formation is very important in breakout. As mentioned before, it identifies the natural consolidation, corrections and distributions stages of the stock. Hence i'm more wary of false breakout without chart formations.

Currently i'm also trying to learn bottom fishing....will share with you guys when i got it figured out. Meanwhile please continue to support my blog. Thanks! :D Huat ah!
Thanks all those who supported my blog and charity yesterday. : ) Please keep it coming!

Monday, November 21, 2005

Damage is light

I did a post mortem on the stocks and found that the damage today is pretty light. One thing for sure, the volume is pretty light, below the 14 days average mostly. Property and Marine counters doesn't seem to enjoy the volume they once command anymore. Banking and Technology sector generate the most volume so far. REITs continue to be affected negatively by the higher interest rates. I continue to like the way our market is moving. If you are scared right now, snap out of it. Because market will suddenly move up like last Friday. Do not miss the chance. I will turn on cautious mode only if STI test 2190. For now, i see high volume on up days and light volume on down days....what does this tell you?

No breakouts were found today.

People! I welcome any questions on technical analysis or market sentiment. You may post the question in the shout box or email me privately. I will try my best to answer best to my knowledge.

Sunday, November 20, 2005

High can go higher

As demonstrated by DataCraft, high can go higher. People who dare not buy DataCraft when it breakouts out on the first day will no doubt feel like Roberto Baggio in 1994 World Cup finals when he ballooned the spot kick that gave Brazil the title! Who can blame them? It's human mentality to buy at a cheaper price hence most are put off by the "high" price. Even I am guilty of this. What happens next is DataCraft goes higher. A classic breakout as what I had charted last week. Most breakout may fail. However if you take care of your losses (cut loss), the few correct breakouts will more than cover it for you.

As for STI, we finally broke 2293 on a volume of more than average of 10 days. This augers will for it's strength. The most important thing I saw on the daily chart is we had register a higher low. Something that I had anticipated 3 weeks ago. Back then, STI had plunged more than 60 points in a day. The next few session saw an immediate technical rebound and many bought again only to see it gives up all the gains again. That is when I realise I must wait for the chart formation which symbolise the natural consolidation and distribution actions. Now that the higher low is formed, let us see a higher high set by breaking 2350. If it doesn't, I will be careful. Trading is all about risk/reward, i will just make sure my decision is well informed.

Some of you had emailed me about my breakout system. Here I wish to clarify, I did not invent this. This system is cheaply available on the book shelf titled "How to make money in Stocks by William J. O'Neil". I am just modelling he's success. : ) However you may want to know I did not base on just 1 book blindly. I have also understood Japanses candlesticks, MacD Histogram, Stochastics, RSI...etc...along with moving averages. You should click on my picture on the left panel to see what other books I had read. After reading many books, i realise they confirmed each other's system. Just like in Jap candlesticks, we have shooting star on high volume to signify reversal at the top. Both Livermore and O'Neil cautioned in words that if the volume is heavy and price close near the day's low. They are talking about the same thing. : )

"It is what you do after 5pm that determines your riches" - O'Neil


ST-Eng - Near all time high. knocking on heaven's door?



ComfortDelgro - Oil price eases, Oversea market increase...time to reverse?



Chartered SemiCon- 3Q deliver lower loss than market expects, 4Q estimates back in black & new deal with Infineon.

Thursday, November 17, 2005

Trading is a mathematics game

I never truly understand money management until a year after I begin trading. To cut story short, if you set a target to take profit at $200 to $300 at sight and your cut loss is always $250, you are on a losing game. Unless you have a crystal ball and can predict at least 90% correct, otherwise you will lose $$$ in the long run. This was how i was trading when i first started. I tabulated my trading and found that i'm 45% correct during that period. However my cut loss (ill-discipline) was so bad that I end up losing $$$ overall. Only this year then did I realise Trading is a mathematical game after reading numerous books. If you are trading (Get it right! Trade or invest?), your target profit must be at least 100% of your cut loss. CANSLIM system uses 8% cut loss and 25% take profit. A very sound mathematical formula. Review your money management now if you smell trouble after reading! This is precisely why I'm never interested in 2 bids 3 bids kind of trade. Because I know my trading account is too small to capitalise in short trades. The broker fees will make it impossible for small account to trade intra-day on small gains. The anxiety and cold sweat is not worth it.

After reviewing the breakout plays on Sunday, I realise that a breakout in volume doesn't guarantee a breakout in price. The failure rate is pretty high. Chart formations plays a part. They reflect the normal buying, profit taking, buying sentiment of the counter. Historically if a stock is in a healthy incline, after a surge, it will form the bottom of a cup and handle as there are some profit taking by sellers but! there are also buyers who are looking to consolidate more shares. The it test the left side of the cup again, following that is another decline in stock but on very light volume. This is the kind of chart pattern accompanying a breakout in volume most profitable. Do you have the patience to wait for it to happen?

Other formations include double bottom and tight range breakout.

Also, I have been shouting breakouts upon volume confirmation. From now on, future breakouts in volume will be strictly screened and only valid breakouts with chart formations will be presented at 4:30pm daily.

As for market directions, strong economic data pushed index higher but the volume ain't convincing. However individual stocks like SPH has recorded higher than average volume. If more counters follow this trend, the bulls are back. Watch volume for indication. Also, Hewlett Packard is expected to deliver a strong set of FY05 results by market. If that happens, it could be the catalyst for a rally tomorrow in tech related stocks.


Olam - Check out it's similarities with DataCraft posted yesterday. I wouldn't advocate buying now. I'm just highlighting the importance of a handle for cup and handle breakouts.

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Breakout amidst uncertain times

Spotted a breakout today with a classic cup and handle breakout. However, there should be a prior uptrend....this cup and handle will not fully qualify. But I decided to post because I like the volume. Jurong Tech and WantWant has the volume, but there were no chart formations hence i dropped them.

Yes, we are trading in range play. I am not buying at this time for fear of being caught offside and end up baby sitting. That's also the reason why I had not posted any articles. I spent the time deciphering the probable direction. STI has rebounded off close to 200ma and Sesdaq is flirting near it's 200ma. Very delicate and sensitive time. I only read the rebound today as mediocre...I wouldn't use it as a signal for reversal. If we close mixed by Friday, it is only good. Some form of selling is healthy if we want a sustainable uptrend. I read that the great bear market will descend when there are no more buyers left.


DataCraft

Sunday, November 13, 2005

Breakout Charts Review

I went through all the past 2 weeks of breakout shouts and found some very interesting points. If the breakout is valid, you will see profit almost immediately. So far there are a few outstanding ones and some that failed miserably. You can refer to the charts to get a better insight. I'm still figuring out my profit taking & loss cutting plan. No one will be able to take profit at the pinacle of the stock price. Hence I must work out a profit taking level to maximise win. Cut loss level is important as well. There are bound to be retracement or pull backs before another push up north. I do not wish to be shake out by this movement.

As for market directions, I remain bullish. There are no strong reversal signals yet. Current mode should be consolidations.

ChinaSun Weekly chart


Media Ring


ComfortDelgro: Not a breakout, but with oil price going down and the interest in SI.


Stats


Rotary


Hyflux


HL Asia


Global Voice


Chuanhup


BeautyChina