Monday, May 28, 2007

Bulls hold steady for now....nervy

Nothing has changed over the years. There is up there is down....the sooner you are able to step aside and look at the market from the outside, it cannot be more clearer. I was away for at least 5 days and I know the market pulled back. However base on technical analysis standpoint, still looks healthy! I stopped buying many weeks ago and began consolidating my positions as we head higher in anticipation of this pull back. Now that it has happened, I know exactly my next steps! This is why it is so important to have a trading system in place and not trade the market randomly. I was at burger king @ Expo where I overheard a conversation where a man called his broker to pay off his MARGIN loss! With the rebound in the market today, i'm sure he is feeling very frustrated for cutting loss unnecessary. Margin....a double edged sword.

It is AMAZING! My technical analysis course (CSMC) intake 13 had closed 1 week in advance! Woah! I am simply very excited and thankful to the 30 who signed up. Guess what, already 6 had paid and will be coming on the 30th June, intake 14! If you are one of the 30...other than making sure you go home with a trading system, I am going to give you a surprise bonus! Universe rewards those who take actions. : )

Although I blog about the Singapore Stock Market, my new blog on US options will be up soon!!! Yes! Progression!!! The number 1 rule to success is progression and always hungry for more! This is why technical analysis must and should be learnt! If you can't beat smart money, the least you could do is to be able to forecast the market's direction. You can then comfortably slip into any market and confidently trade! By the way I recently came across this Trading System on forex..... yes.. Forex is on the radar!

By the way, I declare that I am close....very very close to be doing this FULL TIME!!! Stay tuned....

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Bears fired first salvo

I was getting bored and internally i can feel my patience tested over the last few weeks. My stocks are not appreciating as much as I would like. I see many stocks seducing me. This is exactly the same situation as when I began trading many years ago. They will seduce me, I would have dumped my winners and get into them. Then they will dump me at a loss and i look stupid. That's why I have been staying discipline to my trading system and rules. I dripped blood and swear that I will never trade like I did in the past. Since then, I have been trading consistently with profits, knowing exactly what to do and when to do it. I call it a Paradigm Shift.

I am and will be away for the next 5 days attending National Achievers Congress plus World Internet Summit. No, I am not one of the speakers if that's what you are thinking, this time round i'm learning about wealth creation! Maybe I have never shared this openly, but I will take this chance. Stock Market is only a place for me to grow my wealth, my capital. After which, a portion of the winning must be reinvested into the market but! another portion will be invested to build passive income. No! Trading is not a passive income. Trading is my business. Passive income is something you won't need to be around yet the money keep coming to you. Most of you know I was one of the first to start a trading blog with google adsense program. And if you still don't get what i mean, look at the left panel....... kekeke If!!! you still don't know what i mean, gosh...how are you going to understand the more difficult stock market?

I thought the market was in safe hands and there was follow through buying. Alan's warning about Shanghai market came at the worst time possible because I won't be online to react! Fear not, I am not concerned about the paper profit. I am more concern about where the market is heading. Market has to pull back and I have been preparing for this mentally almost everyday. Just when I throw caution to the wind, Alan has to open his big mouth. Why did i have to prepare mentally? This is psychology in trading. Being mentally prepared, I will know exactly what i will do thus I am in control. Let me assure you once again, there is no way one can predict the exact top and to lose some profits back to market is normal, do not take it personally. So long, nett nett you are up in the money. Every pull back from this top ought to be scrutinised closely. Let me assure you again, when market tanks in 2000, economy is still strong and bullish. Slowly but surely market went lower and lower, when everyone realise it is a bear market, a good % of money was lost! That is why I am never complacent at any pull back or correction. Stocks or shares is the first point of leverage and easily accessible to the majority. When one's value shrink due to market contraction, one thing leads to another, it will then affect the next market, probably property if one cannot pay off mortgage because he needs to pay for his losses in stock market...etc.. thus the crash of the economy. This is just a generalised opinion.

Alright! Tomorrow is Friday. Time to look at the weekly chart of your stocks and anticipate how it will close the week. I am really looking forward to offload more stocks now to book in profits. Again buy signals failed. Something is shifting...time to be nimble.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Market is still on the way up!

Recalling my post about quickpicks not moving? I have been observing them moving up day after day. From my screening today, it shows me buyers are willing to follow through in buying. Hence there should be some more upside to the market. Looks like the sell in May and go away theory doesn't work this year. I see banking stocks leading this run in STI. Properties are still lacklustre. So long they don't breakout to the downside, I feel safe until the sudden correction happens.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Nylect
BakerTech

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Consolidating positions

HSI shys away from closing above 21k yet again and I am disappointed. My heart dropped when it tanks more than 200 points by mid day. However a strong rally by Nikkei ensures HSI stays afloat. I noted that HSI has been trading sideways at this level. Whenever they threaten to break downwards, it is well supported. However it must close above 21k soon, otherwise I see it as a scenario where offloading is happening around 21k. I am vested in the call warrants.

STI while it is heading up, i noted the RSI is not showing strength, staying flat as we head up. I am not going to add new stocks. If I have to buy, i will more likely book profits from a sale to fund the purchase. I need to see 2 situations developed. Firstly, maket to trade sideways and stop heading higher for next month. This is healthy and a way to shakeout weak holders and pave way for another record. Lastly, market should corrects and then build base.

LottsVision was sold the next day after there was no follow up. I never like to ride profits on speculative stocks. It is not safe at all. I will continue to trim my portfolio and get rid of "dead" stocks and consolidate my positions as we head higher.

Growmoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Jasper
PDC
Equation
Noble Grp
Swiber
StraitsAsia
Amara

*Added yet another batch of Yongnam and Amara

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Managing your risk

The game show, "Deal or no Deal" is a perfect showcase of human psychology when we come to risk management! It can be applied to trading. They increase their risk inorder to maximise the prize money, just like traders when we hope that our counters will run higher and higher! The key word here is hope! A no no in trading. If we succeed, it's not because we are good. It is because we are lucky. Thus this how many mistook luck for skill. And when the market tanks, it's no surprise we will moan in pain. We want consistency delivered out of a sound trading system and not luck.

Another common mistake many made is, they went there empty handed and thus they can afford to take higher risk. This is not true, they have "sure money" offered to them to leave the game. Again, this is familiar to traders, how many times have we experienced a profitable position turned into losses? Profits on the table is yours! Take it!

What i have learnt over the years is to manage my risk. One of the many methods is to take your profits on the way up. Hence during my absence from blogging, I have been consolidating my positions. Especially when HSI was breaking 21k, I had to focus on the market and that leaves little time to update the blog. I made 2 trades around this psychological level and came out tops.

Trading the US market also took up alot of my time. However I am very happy. Happy because I am getting the consistency in options trading. While DJ was breaking all time highs, both my put and call options are making money. I started out trading options strategies but that doesn't work for me. I soon ditched all the strategies and began what they call, directional trades. Maybe because of my familiarity with technical analysis, most of my directional plays are right than wrong. This reminded me of what I have read from the books, everyone will find their own way of trading the market. For me directional play definitely works better. I feel so much more at ease than planning options strategies.

When the market is making new highs, breaking records and my stocks are not moving up but down, I know i am too early in the stocks. When market pulls back or face a corrections, my past experience told me, THEY WILL FALL DEEPER! Hence I never like to see my stocks not moving up when the rest of the market are.

Sold Adv Hldgs @ 0.06; bought at 0.07
Sold Skypetrol @ 0.420; bought at 0.470
Sold Wilmar warrants @ 0.110; bought at 0.150 <<< Complacent! this warrant gave me a 19% ROI when wilmar rallied to 3.20, wilmar turned together with market and i was caught. As time decay will kick in and that wilmar could be building base, my warrants will lose more value.
loaded second batches,
CSC @ 0.320
Yongnam @ 0.445

Now the good news,
Bought LottsVision @ 0.530 today! 4 red 1 green last night hor!!!!!!

Growmoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Jasper
PDC
Equation
LottsVision
Noble Grp
Swiber
StraitsAsia

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Threading by the fine line of cautiousness

After a splendid opening on Monday where we opened into virgin land only to close lower and Tuesday echoed. All these despite US breaking new high after high, we seem to have dislodge from the association with Dow Jones. STI has now covered all the gaps created last week and this is healthy! It found gap support at 3409 thereabouts. Come to think of it, the cycle was pretty obvious, sector by sector they took turns to rally. We had banking shares then followed by offshore and constructions. So far property seems to be neglected. As for Tech sector, wait for next reincarnation....they never fails to disappoint.

Every rally attempt so far has been muted. I think all thanks to the forums and newspapers that most of the people are very wary of what can happen in May. They are right, we are scaling at such dizzying height and anytime if any market trips, it can lead to global panic selling and thus creating a self fulfilled prophecy of "see i told you so, May confirm tua lao". There is no need for a serious retracement or corrections. We can also trade sideways from here till July where another slew of results can push us farther into the uncharted territory. Another reason for the lack of participation for follow through could be the mid term examinations of the schools. Parents must be busy tutoring their kids at home and not trading... keke

I was wary of the possibility of the pull back too. Hence my strategy for now is "隔岸观火“ (Do nothing), however I continue to fancy construction sector and loaded another batch of CSC today. I notice most of my system picks over the past few night is not yielding results. This is a warning sign. I had said many times that one need not be an expert in many indicators, keep it simple! I know it is a warning sign because from my experience when my buy signals all failed to move, it means the underlying sentiment could be changing. 2 things can happen, firstly, a sudden meltdown hit us. Lastly, for next few sessions if i see my signals working again, all should be fine.

As for my holdings, still keeping my core and didn't sell anything as yet.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

STI Tangos with Historical High

Another new record was achieved today before pulling back for a weaker close. HSI threatens the resistance at 20,800 tomorrow, however since it is a Friday, maybe not much incentive to close above that. 1 good reason for today's good run could be due to Nikkei's absence. It has been a party pooper whole of last week when DJ broke 13K. I will update HSI chart again tomorrow morning because the data only gets updated at 7am for previous closing.

Something about Cosco. I observed that while many stocks has recovered from the Feb corrections and went on to test new highs, Cosco was not one of them. That is why I have not boarded back onto it all this while. Suspicions were later confirmed with a poorer than expected Q1 results. I have been following Cosco for years (it doubled my money during last run) so far this is the first time it has posted a rather slower growth. Time to watch out. The nasty surprises always hit us when the going is still good. Think about the IT bubble days.... the pain should not be repeated. Stay alert!

GrowMoney QuickPicks
ComfortDelgro
Noble Grp
SatsSvcs
Wilmar

Just a quick update of my growth fund! : )

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Noble Grp
Swiber
Wilmar
StraitsAsia
SkyPetrol

Straits was added last week after a buy signal was triggered. SkyPetrol which I bought at 0.470 has gone down to 0.430. Though nothing bearish as yet, but i don't like to ride on losses. Disciplinary actions to be taken soon.

Ulu Counters (Speculative):
Jasper
PDC
AutoSys
Equation

*Pending breakouts.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Money no enough

I can only salivate at all the quickpicks. How to buy all??? While i am able to get into noble, swiber and straitsasia, but i also missed hobee, CAO, FerroChina! argh!!!! Just have to be thankful that i have some of them. The best part is, instituitions issue reports on my purchases after i bought them. Are they using the same system as me??? hmm.... keke I am tempted to contra...but that will be deviating from my trading system that has worked consistently well for me. Discipline! The 3 stages of trading... Survive....Consistent Profits....Massive Profits. I am now at stage 2....patience...soon i'll arrive at stage 3. The worse and most stupid thing is to self sabotage my system now.

HSI tanked and didn't show the same bulllishness as DJ. This is not insync. I see this as warning. Why does Nikkei and HSI not joining DJ in testing new high? Either we are having a great opportunity to load up HSI now and awaits the test at 21K or... the unthinkable... DJ to corrects which will see HSI faling below 20k. When the 2 giants fall, STI the baby no eyes see.

From my XPertTrader screening, I see many stocks turning. Most likely tomorrow will be another rally day. Today STI rebounded with a vengeance. Very very sweet to see 3400 again. Are you ready to see 3500? Better be!

GrowMoney Quickpicks
Amara
ChinaSun
ChinaHong
Equation
HLAsia
IntRoller
OCBC
PacAndes
TiongWoon


With more than 200 graduates from CSMC (Cracking the Stock Market Code), my time is further split between this blog and the graduates alumni mailing list that i head. This is why you see the infrequent blogging. I reckoned i ought to help them as much as I can if time permits since they believed in me and attended CSMC. Anyone of you who are from the course and had not been invited to the email group. Please send me an email, i will add u in.

Also, i am trading the US Options. I reckoned, if bear market comes along, liquidity will dry up in the Singapore bourse. Those who seen 2002 will know what i'm talking about. Then how to make money? Hence I am preparing myself for the day the need arise for me to trade the short side in US. The facility for shorting is much more convenient.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.