Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Big swings

I skipped one night of blogging because i went to a preview talk on a trading platform. I struggled. I stared down the corridor which leads to my rooms.... bedroom is on the left and study room is on the right... i think and re-think... finally the left side of the brain said sleep! keke Anyway, i found another reason for the laziness. The lack of exercise. I still remember i always take the chance whenever i went jogging to formulise trading ideas or creative ways to use XPertTrader. I think i did blog about this......my ang mo shi fu said that, inorder to be in tip top condition for trading, healthy lifestyle is a must as it keeps your mind agile. Hence another step i am taking would be to incoporate exercising. Soon i will influence my team mates to run around empress place as well as esplanade, maybe even padang. I just love the sunset in the evening in that area. I still remember standing at one fullerton with full view of marina bay back in 2005.... i pointed to Ritz Carlton hotel and declare to my ex-gf, that one day..... just one day... i want to share my trading experience with an audience in a ballroom...... and i want to grace the stage of many auditoriums.... she just smiled and said nothing...... no wonder she is no longer my gf. haha

The seminar on 4th Aug has closed. I guess most seized the chance to grab their seats because it is a ChartNexus event. This seminar will be special because the topics will be on trading ideas for the upcoming National Day. Old timers will know, this is one of the calendar date where market behaves in a predictable manner. Lobangs aplenty!

I took my profits for Cosco Corp shorts leaving Noble shorts. The reason being, my CFD 30 days is up and i had to choose between auto roll over or i just take the profit. I choose the latter. I shall wait for higher levels or another trending stock to short. Perhaps i should pay more attention to HSI. I have the knack to index direction. Somehow to me, candlestick analysis, trendlines and one oscillator works well for me when i trade index.

Curent market is on it's toes... be very careful. It doesn't take a genius to observed that when Dow plunges more than 2%, STI lets go a small fart. When Dow rallies more than 2%, STI lets go also a small fart. My shifu says, right now, just take a view on the market and take the position. Neither the bulls nor the bears are interested to push in our market. With the 2 days wild swing, i may have to re-look at my shorts.


Swiber: a stock that XPertTrader rule picks up to go down. With Swiber heading down in such spectacular fashion, i will be looking at a test to the last support at 1.98. A lateral view will be to look at swissco.


Oceanus: A stock to watch because i like the good base before the breakout. This is where i will deploy the breakout strategy if 430 is taken out. Any pull back, i would hesistate if 380 is broken. XPertTrader 4r1g signal triggered.



Hi-P: Despite high oil price, their earnings improved. Though i didn't follow up on the story, i think i better do it soon. I tend to ignore this stock because it's industry is being squeezed by the high oil price. Looks like time to re-look this little giant. From the chart, a short-term opportunuity looks to be knocking on the door. Indicators starting to look good. Volume build up looks nice.

GrowMoney Quickpicks:
SPC

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as an buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. You agree that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Quiet market

Indeed, this blog has lead me to know many great people and talking here online, allows me to vent my frustration and get my act right. Penning down your thoughts is always a good way to be clear to yourself, what you want. I wanted to get back to my passionate self and i wrote about it. By writting, i had forced myself to think positive and the small steps to getting back the passion. Today i dragged myself to this laptop and type away! My very first small step! I remember back in those days, even after i went Mdm Wong (My generation will understand) back at 1am, i will still flip charts... while i may be enjoying my night out, my head was thinking abt trading ideas for the next day... haha those were the days....

First of all, thanks to 4 kind souls who replied to my last post. Anonymous, just like you say, set a big target that will benefit not only me, but many others. Today i did something spectacular. (How timely) I rejected a customer. There was this uncle who had visibility challenge and because he often attended our FREE workshops and felt obliged to subscribe to XPertTrader. I attended to him and learnt about it. There he is, over 60 years old, retired, lost alot of money in the market (GemsTV, Osim, Centillion), punting is his method. I advised him not to sign the form for XPertTrader for i know it will not be useful to him since he just felt obliged. Instead i offered him a 1 on 1 training on T.A. I didn't even want him to sign up for the usual CTA course as i clearly could see he won't be able to follow the pace. This reminds me of a story, there was a young boy aged 13, the teacher asked the class to write down what will make them feel happy, many wrote going on a holiday, scoring As, receive a dream present they always wanted. But the boy's answer was different. He wrote, "I feel happy when i help others and watch them smile and say thank you to me". As corny as it sound, that boy was me. I remember telling this story to my ex-girlfriend, no wonder she is now Mrs Decipher... keke

The market today is very quiet. Well nothing to be surprised about as plenty of US econ data will be out this week. Remember, the last round of US data, nothing bad, market rally briefly and still came back down. The bull strength was limited and worse, DJ broke year low. Hence unless the data comes in damn well above expectations, i am still bear. No doubt i haven't been blogging diligently, my eyes were still on the market. In our office, each of us have a LCD screen and live prices are flickering every seconds in case we miss any big movement. For those who are interested to know what i have on this screen, HSI, Nikkei & Simsci Futures. I don't understand why we need to see Dow futures as it only determines the opening of Dow which is not meaningful unless you trade ang mo market. Then of course i will have my local stocks live streaming. Then the most important window, a messenger window to my trading buddies who taught me alot.

FerroChina failed at 38.2%. A good short will be from 1.35 to 1.40 where the falling window is. Today i waited... but the rebound never get close to it. Hence i gave it a miss. Midas, the darling of yester year seems like joining the clan of forgotten stocks soon. You go see the chart, dying slowly but surely... Even if i were to bet on rebound, this stock will surely not be on my priority list.

Currently i am still holding on to my cosco and noble shorts. My plan to continue building a short portfolio is intact. I see the current market actions as waiting for a bad news to come along to really crash it big time. There are simply no confidence in the market at all. At our Stock selection seminar, we gather more than 150 participants in the room each time. I always took sometime to "listen" to the mood of the audience. The last seminar was pretty muted. It's a you look at me, i look at you kind of market for now. Still as mixed, but i doubt the confidence level of the market.

I just want to remind everyone, in a bear market, rally ends early and selling is slow death... bear markets are also very tricky. Take good care!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Neither hungry nor foolish

As often as i used to write, trading is not only about technical analysis. Inorder to generate wealth, you need to have money management, otherwise it will be win here lose there, nothing fantastic. The other more important factor is psychology. That was my edge in the market place. Everyone can learn technical analysis and money management easily but when it comes to managing psychology, everyone will know but not practise it. This is human nature and this is why stock market is the way it is. Someone has to lose the money and the next person picks it up. Ask anyone who has been to my seminar, i have no qualms about sharing the signals and when to buy and such with no holds bar kind of presentation. But when i talk about managing of psychology, often times the interest was not there. At times i was so frustrated. I knew it is what made me trade successfully and yet i couldn't convince them to pay attention to it.

Ever since i came back from my 2 months break late last year for marital bliss, i notice my fire has died. The hunger was no longer there, and the passion if any left, was spent on coaching my peers. The story began about 4 years ago, one night, i decided enough is enough and masterminded my comeback plan in trading. Everynight i would study the market in earnest no matter how busy or how late it was. People came to know about me and my blog and visitors started pouring in. I knew i had a large following and i am honoured that i could help many people who like me, lost and wants to make back all the money and thus i made it a point to share information here on this blog. I had 3 short-term goals then. I needed money for my wedding and my love nest. I want to get out of my IT job and work in a investment related profession. And i want to make back the money lost! With these 3 burning missions on my mind, everything else became secondary. Focus + desire is what drives me back in those days. Two targets were reached by 2006, i made back the money lost all these years and now has sufficient money for my wedding and love nest. By 2007 July, i quited my job and joined ChartNexus. Dec'07, i came back from my honeymoon and began my new life.

Yes, new life... alot of things about me changed. I couldn't got back my passion for trading, my desire and focus was no longer there. Charting became a chore to me and teaching T.A bores me. What is happening to me! I slipped into a depression that i told no one about. I began to wake up in the wee hours and unable to fall asleep. Work suffers as my creative juice dries up, i stopped exercising and couldn't find interest in anything not even trading. Day and night just passed. After a month, i managed to find out the reason...... i was so focussed on my 3 goals all these years that, after i achieved them, suddenly i had nothing to look forward to.

Listening to Steve job's speech about staying foolish and hungry, i realise i had indeed slipped into a complacent mood. After achieving the 3 goals, i should be setting my sights on greater things to come. But instead, i felt lost and didn't know what's next. Some would ask, "wouldn't you want to make millions?" Of course i want! But i know it is not by saying, it will happen. I need to be thinking abt the little steps to getting there and making sure each step is executed to perfection. Thinking abt the million is what i call focussing on the wrong stuff. Yes it is a goal, it is a motivation. But the focus should be on the small steps. My 3 goals were achieved because i shut my ears and mind to pessimism and focus on the small steps. Incase you wonder what those small steps were? It is the daily charting and blogging. I scrutinise each trade and learn more things when i win or lose and then record down on this website so that i remember. Even when i put on a trade, i do not fret abt the profits or losses each day. My focus is whether the market is going to where my money is. Especially in trading, if you keep thinking about how much u gonna make in this trade or lose in a certain position, your emotions will be affected and that is how silly trades are done.

Goals and desire are such powerful mind games, we ought to make better use.

This shall be my key reversal day. I can feel that i am ready to set new goals and achieved them. I want to be the old decipher, ever so passion abt trading. If destiny wants me to fall, then so be it. I rather fail spectacularly than lead a mediocre life. huat arh!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

JSX: Aneka Tambang (ANTM)


The bluelines are support lines where it is better to fish there. Target of the D-triangle is shown. However, because it is bigger than 2 months, it is a very loose pattern and there is a possibility that we will not see the target. 1810 is another significant level to watch. Should there be any rebound, it will be kept at the red line. The gap down will be the first resistance as we look forward to a test of this falling window. On the weekly chart, a doji has formed signifying the bears are taking a break... watch for a white candle with strong volume by next friday as a hint of reversal maybe.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

The rebound everyone is waiting for

Over the last few weeks, it has been really a test of patience as i watched how the market ding dong without any significant upside or downside. I had a choice to trade intra-day, but alas i decided that i will stick to my plans of building a short portfolio. The lacklustre behaviour of the market send boredom to my life. All these years i have been very active in the market and enjoying every moment. Last few weeks has been extremely bored. Even as of today, i wouldn't say it is a good time to load up. I couldn't see any evidence of good bullish or bearish tinge. Recent actions has been, long also die, short also die. While there are small swings to profit from, but i been there before. The year was 2004... then we were trading 3 steps down, 2 steps up. What happen to me was, i made profits from the small swings... pocketing 2 to 4 cents one way. However, it drained my account. How did that happen? Because everytime i lose, i got hit 3 to 5 cts in addition of the brokerage. This is surely a lose lose game. Also, trading this way tend to miss the multi-baggers.

Actions hots up last Friday when we went down ferociously but support still holds. Now this is what caught my attention. Next thing i am watching out for will be how the market trades at the resistance. Currently my opinion is market may be forming a lower high. I just have to sit out the rebound and then add to my shorts. Yes i am still holding to my shorts just as i mentioned, i am interested in a short portfolio.

Now if market is to be bullish, i would see myself cutting loss on my shorts as they would have broken the lower highs and forming a support. That is where i will try to long.



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

A quick look at STI


It is notable that despite Dow Jones Index recording a new low for 2008, STI is still trading above the 7 month low. The gap from 2832 to 2878 may act as a technical support for the near term and we observed that the RSI is showing a bullish divergence. There may be overhead resistance from the 20-day moving average.



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Asia catching up with Dow

After 3 weeks of inactivity, finally the market hots up. Stocks started the brief rebound last week and today it all came into an abrupt end. I am only too glad that the market tanked today otherwise it is really very difficult to understand it. At least now i know the simple rules of the market still works and i am able to get the direction right. Despite all these talk about de-couple from US bla bla bla, today Asia market decided to finally cave in and joined the US in the south pole. As i am writting this, Dow has broken the 11k psychological support. Next major support will be at 10,700 thereabouts. Asia has a long way to catch up since the Mar'08 low is still intact. HSI support is targetted at 20,800 and STI? 2743 should go first.

How do we explain the selling in S-shares? simple, all you need to do is understand why does it go up in such high volume? One of my traing principle, if the stock has higher than usual volume and the price doesn't go higher, it has to come down. period.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Asia De-coupled with US

While dow broke to new low for 2008, HSI, Nikkei & STI are still staying above the Mar'08 low. What is happening here? Nan dao, we are really de-coupled with Dow? The super-power is no longer Dow but China? Perhaps history is in the making for all of us to witness how China takes over as super power.

Friday's strong closing came after days where market teased to the downside. I was definitely looking at a break to the downside, however market holds steady. The fact that it can holds steady despite Dow keeps going lower is a cause of concern for my shorts. I just checked the Dow's chart, still as ugly only thing is again it is in the state of oversold a rebound is likely. Even on STI, i wouldn't immediately call it the reversal. There are methods to identify reversal and the born of an uptrend and i will rather wait for these tell tale signs.

The rebound on Friday brought many China stocks near their resistance. I will be waiting to see, what to see? If any of those China shares that went up with high volume start to show weakness. Because if you were to look at most of their charts, it is easy to see those strong volume rally fizzles out and give us a lower low.


It is interesting to note that STI, Nikkei & HSI have not broken the Mar'08 low while Dow Jones has broken that low and now threatening to break lower. The ADX shows that the current downtrend in STI is losing strength as we can see the ADX line lacklustrely turning down along with -DI. Further observation of trend weakness can be seen from the positive divergence developed in the MacD Histogram. The probability of a rebound is strong and we can expect resistance from the price gap at 3084 level.





DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, July 06, 2008

Grossly oversold

Delightful is the word i would use to describe how i feel when the market came down whole week long. Recalling how i was wrong about market moving higher in May, i made a decision to square off all my long positions to re-analyse the direction. Then i believed the market is heading down and from the way i read the market, i had a feeling 3000 and 12000 will not hold. Simply put it, if these levels hold, i would square off my shorts or should they break, i can look to short. My plan is to develop an opinion and trade in that direction while looking out for evidence that my opinion is wrong. This method is much better than "I see market up, i long, i see market red, i short" a sure way to lose money consistently. One of the question frequently asked was, when can i short? My answer is very simple, two levels we must know. Support and Resistance. Resisted at resistance or break support and we look to short. This is the only way you have the highest probability in your favour. Anything in between is best to avoid and wait patiently for the best risk/reward trade to come along. So to answer the question, yes, watch out for those support levels and pay attention to any positive news.

Technically, a rebound may happen. Watch out for sideway consolidations which may lead to another fall. The best is of course if we can have a decent rebound. This should be an excellent chance to go short. The pattern last week was obvious, "sell on strength".

Another sign that i have not witnessed during the bull run was how the crowd favourites were being sold mercilessly. Hongxin, Cosco, YZJ, Synear, Jiutian one by one these giants falling in grace.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.