Monday, July 28, 2008

Quiet market

Indeed, this blog has lead me to know many great people and talking here online, allows me to vent my frustration and get my act right. Penning down your thoughts is always a good way to be clear to yourself, what you want. I wanted to get back to my passionate self and i wrote about it. By writting, i had forced myself to think positive and the small steps to getting back the passion. Today i dragged myself to this laptop and type away! My very first small step! I remember back in those days, even after i went Mdm Wong (My generation will understand) back at 1am, i will still flip charts... while i may be enjoying my night out, my head was thinking abt trading ideas for the next day... haha those were the days....

First of all, thanks to 4 kind souls who replied to my last post. Anonymous, just like you say, set a big target that will benefit not only me, but many others. Today i did something spectacular. (How timely) I rejected a customer. There was this uncle who had visibility challenge and because he often attended our FREE workshops and felt obliged to subscribe to XPertTrader. I attended to him and learnt about it. There he is, over 60 years old, retired, lost alot of money in the market (GemsTV, Osim, Centillion), punting is his method. I advised him not to sign the form for XPertTrader for i know it will not be useful to him since he just felt obliged. Instead i offered him a 1 on 1 training on T.A. I didn't even want him to sign up for the usual CTA course as i clearly could see he won't be able to follow the pace. This reminds me of a story, there was a young boy aged 13, the teacher asked the class to write down what will make them feel happy, many wrote going on a holiday, scoring As, receive a dream present they always wanted. But the boy's answer was different. He wrote, "I feel happy when i help others and watch them smile and say thank you to me". As corny as it sound, that boy was me. I remember telling this story to my ex-girlfriend, no wonder she is now Mrs Decipher... keke

The market today is very quiet. Well nothing to be surprised about as plenty of US econ data will be out this week. Remember, the last round of US data, nothing bad, market rally briefly and still came back down. The bull strength was limited and worse, DJ broke year low. Hence unless the data comes in damn well above expectations, i am still bear. No doubt i haven't been blogging diligently, my eyes were still on the market. In our office, each of us have a LCD screen and live prices are flickering every seconds in case we miss any big movement. For those who are interested to know what i have on this screen, HSI, Nikkei & Simsci Futures. I don't understand why we need to see Dow futures as it only determines the opening of Dow which is not meaningful unless you trade ang mo market. Then of course i will have my local stocks live streaming. Then the most important window, a messenger window to my trading buddies who taught me alot.

FerroChina failed at 38.2%. A good short will be from 1.35 to 1.40 where the falling window is. Today i waited... but the rebound never get close to it. Hence i gave it a miss. Midas, the darling of yester year seems like joining the clan of forgotten stocks soon. You go see the chart, dying slowly but surely... Even if i were to bet on rebound, this stock will surely not be on my priority list.

Currently i am still holding on to my cosco and noble shorts. My plan to continue building a short portfolio is intact. I see the current market actions as waiting for a bad news to come along to really crash it big time. There are simply no confidence in the market at all. At our Stock selection seminar, we gather more than 150 participants in the room each time. I always took sometime to "listen" to the mood of the audience. The last seminar was pretty muted. It's a you look at me, i look at you kind of market for now. Still as mixed, but i doubt the confidence level of the market.

I just want to remind everyone, in a bear market, rally ends early and selling is slow death... bear markets are also very tricky. Take good care!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.