Thursday, September 28, 2006

Property Counters take the lead

No matter how i scan the market using my rules in XpertTrader, property counters keep coming up. I saw All Green a couple of times and over the last few days it really made new highs.
Today Suntec made a spectacular volume of 22.9 million. In theory, when a stock is at all time high, the supply of shares should be scarce because there are no overhang shareholders. This is a danger signal flashing!

Capitaland's pivot points are at 5.10 & 5.15
Cosco Corp 1.67
Keppel Land 5.05
Labroy Marine 1.72
JurTech supported by it's 50MA
Celestial supported by 50 MA
Midas supported by 50MA

Special mention about Tech sector...unusually quiet. Perhaps after Properties are done with their move, Tech sector is the next to lead STI?

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

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Monday, September 25, 2006

The calm before the storm

It was an extremely boring day at the market as many stocks drifted aimlessly. Cheapo stocks continue to hog the top volume. Some stocks were beaten down and Midas was one of them. I had initially planned to add Midas if the support at 0.890 holds. But it has gave way.

I took HSI Put Warrants this time after I detected hesistance in breaking new highs. In reality, HSI has moved up 3 days in a roll and hence any pull back shouldn't be surprising.

I added one more interesting stock to my watchlist, LongCheer. It was picked up by one of my trading rules in XpertTrader. Resistance at 0.865 turns support for now. Indicators showing oversold.

Many people are calling for the market to correct. So far market has been defying gravity. I continue to watch and so far nothing bearish has come out of it. Infact most stocks are declining without heavy volume. However, buying must return, otherwise the selling can be self sustained and continue in what we call constant selling.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Position Updates & Where is STI heading

Yo Yo Yo! I am back! After my last class for September, i simply threw aside my work and enjoyed my weekend. Feeling refreshed, I am back!!!! :D Huat arh!

Market is having mood swings and actions these days have been worrying. With stocks not going anywhere and caught in tight ranges, it can swing either up or down. Frankly speaking, downside seem to be more probable. STI has broke resistance 2534 on Monday but came down and close at 2520 on Friday. This pull back could be a close of the gap up on Monday and it's resting slightly above it's old rsistance 2517. Also there is a formation call the rising wedge, a bearish signal to be confirmed if we breaksdown diarrhoea style. I wouldn't turn all bearish on the market as yet. This is just a lingering fear on my side but I shall trade base on what the market is showing instead.

Alot of people has warned of a possible corrections due to the fact that ulu stocks has been hogging the top volume for days. Yes I do agree that I have read from the books and they warned that such scenes precedes corrections. However, I must say there are still many people on the side lines after the May crash so we might not be heading for a steep corrections. Market condition at that time was a staggering 2 billion shares traded. We are just about 1.2 billion traded on Friday. Retracement maybe, tua lao? Let's see.

Cosco Corp: Breakout at 1.60. Currently pull back to 1.63 with very weak volume. However possible shooting star observed on the weekly chart. This week will be crucial that no bearish confirmation is formed. Resistance at 1.67.

MediaRing: KBH has got a seat on PacNet's board. This should position Mediaring in a strong position for the requisition it proposed. Chart wise, support is at 0.340 for now and we are trading in a very tight range. Using Bollinger, I will see which side it breaksout.

DMX: Fundamentals of company remain competent, chart wise, support should hold and if it breaks 0.640, I will cut first and re-look at another entry.

UTAC: Breakout of 0.670 and retraced back to the breakout point. Volume however was not low and hence I will be paying attention to this. If resistance doesn't turn support here, I will take my profit first.

Nikkei CW: After a steep drop, I will be looking forward to a rebound to get out of my Call Warrants. If it does not happen on Monday, I will look to cut loss first.

As for my watchlist, I am watching Hi-P, Midas, MMI very closely. Especially Midas because it was captured in my oversold rule in XpertTrader.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, September 22, 2006

I lost control of my mental state

The week started off as what i had anticipated and my profits soared! However by the end of the week, my anticipation didn't complete a fairy tale ending. I thought this time i'm in for the big kill! But it was not to be. Throughout the week, due to the Thailand coup, market had reactions and my HSI warrants had a roller coaster week. While I was deep in profits, instead of feeling happy, I was feeling very unsafe. All through the week, my mind was on "should i take profit? What if it goes up further after i sell? what if the profit is wiped off by the market swing?". Yes, it was a slip in psychology. I was self sabotaging myself.

This is serious and not good. You can see I have not updated my blog for the whole week. Cold fingers looking at the wild swing of HSI, experiencing fast heartbeats and each night I would dream about how the market will move the next day. Totally not in control of my mental state. Throughout the week, I have this nagging uneasy feeling, I couldn't explain it. Deep in my conscious I knew I have been too biased to the bulls side and should the bears visit, i will lose a bulk of my paper profits. I was at times tempted by greed and driven by fear. The kind of internal struggle that almost put me on the fine thread of sanity.

Also, I have been too ambitious to kick start my training programs. Speaking almost every week of the month, I didn't had enough enough time to rest and focus on the market. I was simply over stretching my time and energies. Hence I have decided to cut back on trainings to free up more time to rest. The month of September has been really tiring and having not enough rest, I couldn't conjure up trading ideas nor have the energies to research past winners and seek out growth sector.

Now that I have squared off my position in HSI, it's like a big rock off my chest. I feel so much better with no emotional baggage. So that is what was bugging me throughout the week. Simply amazing, now as i am typing out my thoughts, i can feel the inner peace that was missing for the whole week. 本来无衣物,何处惹尘埃。 Livermore always said when comes to speculating, it is very important to keep your mind at peace.

I took time to really think hard mid day, and i decided to took profit on my HSI today. These are the push factors for me to act. For the record, Buy@ 0.750, Sell@0.920. Guess where did HSI close? 0.950! !@#@$@!! always happen! haha

1) Why should I risk 80% of profits for another 20%?

2) Nikkei had a big drop, DJ and nasdaq didn't had follow through in their rally.

3) HSI though close strongly, I cannot ignore the fact that it didn't perform a great rally after breakout. I have seen how indices when in the mood to party can at least rally for 2 straight days. This time round, HSI did nothing of that sort,
it is not acting correctly. As long as I don't give up trading, there will be a day i can latch myself to those moves.

4) I was not thinking with my head but began to hope the market will go higher. That is a sign of losing control to me. I was greedy for more profit and yet fear my paper profits will depreciate.

5) My friend reminded me not to be too aggresssive. Being a small account trader, I need to build my capital first. As my capital grow bigger, it will then enable me to take bigger risk in the future.

Ahhhh! It feel so much better after I type away my thoughts and feelings. I will be back Sunday night to blog down my anticipations! :D Huat arh!

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Get ready to rally!

Nikkei's strong closing caught my eyes and I went for the HSI Call warrants. My reasons for buying were, Market had a chance to really correct for this week but the underlying tone is firm with plenty of buying at support, many stocks refuse to crash. The weekly chart of all indices threaten to be bearish but most finish without bearish confirmation. Friday's night CPI was good, suggesting a soft landing of the US Economy was on track. Market will be anticipating an unrevised interest rate by Ben on 20th Sept. With US market finishing up modestly, I would expect HSI to open higher, but how it will perform for the day, remain to be seen. Oil goes lower and this could suggest more downside for oil-related stocks.

I heard Baltic rate is easing off, NOL and STX should benefit. But i rather wait for the results to be in and affirm. Nasty profit warnings from Bio-Treat and Magnecomp remains fresh on my mind.

Looking back on our STI, I think upside is coming. So far the rally has selling thus creating a very healthy higher highs, higher lows. The past week closed a small gap and rebounded off it. 2535 there abouts will be the level to test and break.

On my radar, I have got Capitaland, Olam and Midas. All 3 companies registered good growth and results. Chartwise, breakouts beckon!


DMX - I bottom picked this stock at 0.665 as it's close to it's 52 weeks low. It's recent result showed good business growth and it secures multiple contracts over the last few weeks. Chart wise, selling seems to be drying up. My target is for it to register another solid result and thus send the stock higher. Best is an international investment write some reports. Meanwhile, into the cupboard it goes.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Technical Analysis: Getting The Basics Right






The key highlights of this course is, it's designed to get you ready to trade the market with practical working knowledge about Singapore Stock Market. Determining market direction, rotational play and selecting the right stocks are knowledge you won't find in any foreign Technical Analysis books. These are SGX applicable! True experience from the trainer.

For more information on course outline http://www.chartnexus.com/events

Cheong arh!

Cheooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong arh!!!!

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Market looking confused

STI is trading near the resistance at 2517, covered the gap. Next target is at 2534, and we can expect the current uptrend to remain intact if we take that out. The shooting star that i am so wary of on the weekly chart will not have a black candle confirmation if we do not close near 2480s. Regionally, things are not so straight forward. Nikkei and HSI playing see-saw and STI is caught in between.


I cut my Celestial at 1.51 today, it had broke support at 1.53 and I just had to act. The stock closed at 1.53, right at support. With decent conditions of Nikkei, DJ & Nasdaq before our market open, I was anticipating Celestial to reverse. Gap up it did at 1.56 but move swiftly down. HSI didn't help matters because it is mixed and down whole day. I just wanted to avoid a wilmar on this one. We all know that Celestial can move up very fast, it can also move down damn fast!!! I once read that, cutting loss when your analysis is wrong is your insurance premium to prevent further capital loss. Nevermind the stock reverse the moment you sell because you have bought at the wrong time. 1.51 is supported by 50ma and the daily RSI seems to have rebounded for what might be a reversal. I will watch on.

Chinasky is an interesting stock captured by one of my rules in today's XpertTrader's stock screening.

Over the last 2 months, there are alot of wonder stocks, Midas, MMI, Jtech, Hi-p....these are what i am trying to own. Patiently await the time to pull trigger! It pays to follow them.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Learning Options Trading

Some of you may be wondering why I did not update my blog as frequently as before. I have been spending the last few months trying to decipher how to trade options profitably. keke Reading through books, attending free previews from the likes of Clement Chiang, Optionetics and Mcwilliams. I realise all you need is observation! Observe and understand what happened in the market and presto! Below a sample from my options virtual trading! keke Yippie next time can teach options for thousands!!! hahaha Joking nia la, you know i always share when i find out how! keke Just wait for me to ascertain these strategies and i will post for free! keke


Notice the big big profits from GS and LEH? It is what they call earnings play or gapping play. GS was going to report it's results on 12th Sept, i checked the charts on the 11th and found technically not bearish and buy an slightly OTM call option. This sound like gambling? Well I thought so too. But this is also what many are paying thousands for!!! Same for LEH, but it didn't move up just as much as GS. The rest of the trades are strategies, some are spreads, some are longer time frame naked calls. MSFT and Dell, these are dying trades. I purposely left them on to rot to study how much i will lose if the options expire worthless. With a hedge, the maximum loss so far held out. It means the theory is working. Now how do I exit my GS and LEH trades? I will use T.A to time my exit.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Gut Feel in Trading



Gut feel is actually memories of but you are unaware of these memories of past patterns in price actions and charts. Consciously you are not aware. So whenever a similar pattern occurs, you have a feel, this is gut feel. Gut feel is not emotional trading. The latter refers to making decisions based on hope, greed and fear.

Strategy Classes Review

Today i completed the last of September's Strategy Class. A big thank you to 40 of you who attended and I hope I have served you well. Sad to say, while we had so much interaction and fun last Thursday, today the energy level was obviously down by alot! I didn't think it was as good as the previous. I could see bored faces. Perhaps the strategy is too simple for you? My delivery is not convincing? Market tua lao today? Whatever it is, your feedbacks will be analysed and we will make October's Strategy class more exciting. If you have some ideas on what should be on the contents, feel free to drop me an email. The learning community that I mentioned in class should be up soon and I will personally guide you on this continuous education. For those with XpertTrader questions, it is no doubt a powerful stocks filtering tool, but it serves you no purpose if you don't know how to use it. Hence we will be having a site where rules used by me or others will be made available to you in the very near future, do look out for it. Once again, I thank you for the participation.

As for market analysis, US is rallying now, focus on Tech stocks, i keep shouting that they are firm they are firm. Now we know why, Nasdaq tua tua cheong! Now I would like to see my UTAC breaks 0.760 resistance. This should give me ample profits to feel comfortable. Celestial, resting precauriously on 1.53 support. I didn't cut yet as I see HSI finishing strongly and believe retailers are selling out of fear. With a sustained bullish sentiment tomorrow, i'm looking forward to Celestial to rebound. Cosco Corp, deep in the money, i shall ride on. So far i feel comfortable with it's price actions.

After studying options trading for months, i began to see similar opportunities in warrants. The utmost important thing is Strike Price! I will be using the gapping strategy for options for this coming results season. Currently paper trading showed that choosing the correct strike price works very well in directional trades. Basic T.A on catching reversal is profitable too. Options Strategies so far didn't work as well for me, because often time, the breakeven for strategies are too far away to be profitable. I thought about it, Strategies ensures you have limited losses. But if I were to place cut loss level when I put on a naked call or put, i will be fine. Another observation, T.A seems to work better in US. Soon you will read about US market instead! lol hahaha

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Sept 11; market in mourning

No joking matter, despite a higher closing on Friday by US, we are straight under pressure from Asia's leading bourses. The time to buy is here again!!! :D But don't get me wrong, i'm not asking you to jump straight in! Buying in recent weeks is definitely high risk, but with market heading downwards, soon it will have a reversal signal, that will be the time to pull trigger. Otherwise staying clear seems to be a safer choice. I always tell myself, it's either I buy near support or i buy at breakout under bullish conditions.

Nikkei's support is at 15,710 to 15,745. 38.2% of fibbo retracement from it's low in June is 15,521.

HSI's support will be at 16,894 thereabouts. However there are bearish divergence signal as seen since a weeks ago, it pays to be careful with your china stocks now. Otherwise, playing HSI PWs could be quite fun too. Please choose near the money strike price!

Crude oil has now hit US$65!!! No wonder all the oil related counters got whack today. With oil price hitting highs, I avoided plastic related stocks. Now it's time to take a look at them once again! Hi-P a long forgotten plastic darling looks to have bottom. I will be looking for signs of a bottom in this.

The most important is the Consumer Price Index report set for Friday, ahead of the Sept. 20 Fed meeting.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Major Market Indices Update

Last Friday when we woke up and saw US had another red day, certainly, it wasn't the best news to receive early Friday. But as we all know the market, expect the unexpected! haha Regional market didn't close down together with US and on Friday night, US went up. We should have an easier Monday. However my mind will be on the weekly chart of the indices. A reminder, we have room to fall without hurting the uptrend line. In an uptrend, we do not go up one straight line, there are pull backs along the way. These pull backs are great opportunities to re-entry.

You may want to consider one of the ChartNexus Events, Get the Basics Right conducted by industry expert. This is a comprehensive one full day course which will enrich you with the basics of technical analysis to read stock charts like a professional. You will also expect to learn how to read market directions, rotational plays and a profitable strategy.

Last week's near capacity strategy class was really an enjoyable session! In a room of passionate like minded traders, I felt so satisfied being able to explain my thoughts and ideas on the market, not to mention being totally exhausted by the flood of questions! haha A simple strategy using Candlesticks Reversal Pattern and Stochastics was shared. I hope you guys will find it useful. Not forgetting the simple warrants selection criterias explained, this should help to stop bleeding from trading the wrong warrants. Huat Arh!

In my 2.5-hour course, participants will be taught on how to understand, identify and use Candlestick Reversal Patterns with Stochastic signals to time their trades. For short-term trading, the methodology of proper warrant selection will be explained. As for my last class for the month, we still have seats. You may want to register and join us for the 12th Sept 2006 session.

HSI: Bearish piercing pattern found on the weekly chart with bearish divergence in MacD Histogram. This doesn't mean we will head into bear market. The reversal could just be short term. Nobody knows for sure. We will let market tell us.
Otherwise, there is immediate short term upside base on daily chart. There is a gap resistance to fill though.

Nikkei: Possible Hanging man reversal in the making on the weekly chart because we need the upcoming week to be down to form a confirmation. A bullish piercing on the daily chart formed last Friday for a short term upside. But should the bullishness continues, then there will be no more bearish confirmation on the weekly, good news!


STI on the daily. Take note of the huge space we can afford to retrace yet keep the uptrend intact.


STI chart on the weekly.

I mentioned about a possible reversal in Fungchoi and had monitored it's closing on Friday. The reversal formation did not happen afterall and I won't look at fungchoi as yet. I rather buy when it shows that it's reversing. Nevermind if I lose a few bids, as i know this few bids is my insurance against a false reversal.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Market will not Defy Gravity

As happy as I am with my current holdings, I must not slip into complacency. Although our market closed firm today, my mind was on HSI & Nikkei. Both closed sharly lower today. A quick check on HSI's chart, the retracement is still within what I will regard as normal zone because the support line was not broken. However, we risk a possible hanging man or bearish piercing candlestick formation on the weekly chart. This is only used as a guide because individual stock can remain firm despite index not doing well. Incase you are still judging your china stocks based on STI, please look at HSI as well. There is without a doubt at all there are room to fall in the market, the fall doesn't worry me that much, because in a healthy rally, there must be some selling. As long as support line doesn't break, the retracement can offer great opportunities!


Straits Times Index. Bullish cutover of moving average 100 and 50. But the RSI divergence is an eyesore.


ChinaHong looks like a breakout, but with HSI deep red, I will apply some common sense here. I will pull the trigger when the coast is clear. The other stock to watch out for will be Hongguo.

Tomorrow is the second time i'm stepping out of this cyberspace! Actually there will be more in the future as ChartNexus will be engaging me more often after my successful maiden workshop held in May '06. Back then, I thought gone case liao, so suay, bo organise workshop, market bo crash, send out invites only, market crash and I thought turn out will be bad! haha But 27 brave souls still made their way there and eager to learn! Same thing for tomorrow, I will deliver my power pack contents and you guys will walk away full of trading ideas! haha For those who are still considering, here's the link to my course outline once again, http://www.chartnexus.com/events/more_details.php?eid=107

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, September 04, 2006

STI tangoes investors!

We had a gap at 2520 and I thought that will be a resistance to watch out for. Now that we have closed around here, it's really nervous! Hang Seng broke key resistance and looks good to continue to lead the global markets. We shall see if this is a tiger head and snake tail kind of rally...keke


Fungchoi on the weekly chart. I will be waiting for a candlesticks reversal pattern by Friday.


I got into celestial today at breakout to 1.63 where the stock promptly retraced to 1.61 where I bought my lots. Finally it was great that it closed at a breakout volume and price breakout of consolidations. I sure hope this run up will continue. First barrier at 1.70 for now. A pull back may happen due to profit take, the volume on the pull back is important to determine if it is a fake breakout.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Market inches higher!

Fantastic! We closed the week with much to be relieved about! Major indices did not make a U-turn nor break down decisively. Economic data out from the US on Friday simply rock the floor and US closed higher! The much anticipated "tua lao" breakdown did not happen. Ladies & Gentlemen, this is the market for you. Expect the unexpected!!! haha Psychology of market has it that, when many expect it to do something, it will just not happen! It only happens when you least expect it.

I was busy preparing plenty of teaching materials for my upcoming course to be held in September. A great way to refresh my memories on using indicators! haha Does technical analysis works all the time? Well I was so naive back then to think knowing technical analysis is all that I need to scalp money from market. Of course I was wrong and heavily punished! haha The truth is, it doesn't work all the time. Picking the right stocks and the timing is as important. These are from experience. A much respected friend told me, "Ah Dec, if you are willing to observe what is happening, you will learn to pick the next move" Words of wisdom. We see all those expensive courses out there claiming to own methods exclusively to them. How did they arrive at those methods? Observations! Scroll through past charts, understand what precedes the huge movement. Most of the time, you will find that, the same conditions happen again.

China plays got market interest in late week. I did a scan using XpertTrader and many of these china stocks came up in the results. Tomorrow at closing, if they are strong, worth a *tikam* try.

Stocks to watch:
Chinamilk
FerrorChina
Hongguo
Luzhou
Celestial

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

The Secret of Trading

Enjoy!

Adapted from the Show "The Greed of Man" A must watch for traders! :D