Wednesday, January 28, 2009

开工大吉!

My anticipation of sub 7k didn't materialise and i watch in disappointment during the holidays as New York stayed afloat 8k and Barclay's confident statement boosted FTSE. These lead to a big run up above 8k by Nikkei. So much so i had no interest in playing blackjack as my mind was pre-occupied on my post CNY trades. Alas today i took my profits off Capitaland(SGX) and Cosco(SGX). Cut my losses on TOPGLOV (KLSE) and accidentally turned long because i went long more than what i had shorted. Since it's in ringgit and a relatively small position to test poems platform it doesn't worry me so long it doesn't breakdown hard tomorrow. The other bad trade, AAPL (Nasdaq) continues to cause me diarrhoea. What a poisonous fruit. Hearsay snow white went into a coma after eating the same apple..... AAPL was cut moments ago.. if suay, it may hit US$100 before a retracement. Also, since it was a bad mistake, i rather cut. How stupid can it be to be riding losses and cut profits fast? Now i'm left with a KLSE stock long and a HSI short. Unless the vote doesn't get through otherwise HSI sure tua gap up... then my profits contracts again. #@$@#!$%#@#! Why~~~ why can't i one time hoot tio seh?! Guess it's no use complaining. Nevertheless let's look forward to the next trade. By the way, hearsay my chinese zodiac say this year i meet gui ren and will tua tua huat leh! not bad hor.. nan dao this year really i can hoot tua tua? Not only this, my wife warns me about the tao hua this year.. hearsay i be got a lot of tao hua in Ox year! hahaha *sing*路边的野花不要采,不采白不采! kekeke

One of the reasons i covered my shorts is because there are upside surprises to some of the data which came out. Corporate wise, internet & technology companies appear to continue to be performing well. Nan dao tech sector will pull this economy out of trouble again just like 1998? Governments appear to be locked in arms to stimulate the economy, the success is anybody's guess. What's important to me is, market is taking these positively and i shouldn't be a stubborn bear. I only have two choices, either i ride out this rebound or i take my profits first and wait at MTL levels. I chosen the latter. Obama stimulus plan is on the votes tonight and there seems to be alot of econ data coming out which can mean a big swing to the upside may be possible. I find it very useful to measure the kind of emotion i am going through each time i take a loss or a win. Like now, although i made profits, but, i am not happy as yet. My mind is not focussing on the profits, i am already hungry for the next trade. Currently i am feeling very uncomfortable because i am sitting on too much cash and can't wait to grow them.

Watch the bailout plan... the last one sprang nasty surprise when unexpectedly the market reacted negatively to it and we had the worse month of the year. We are still dead locked in a range, hence to short, i prefer a break of the support or at the resistance. It requires patience to get to MTL levels.

Friday may be what many people will expect a rough time as US's GDP numbers will be out. While no one expect it to do well, but if it performs better than worse market can still rally. Why do i get a feeling, unless another big company goes under, otherwise i don't see the market going any lower and it makes sense to be a bull now. Or should i say Ox. Well at least until we see market starts to react to bad news. Now, even if we are moving higher, let us watchout and be nimble at resistances.

Due to the light volume, today's big rally should be discounted. With no good stocks from my screening, i opt to stay out and observe. Perhaps my favourite Thursday night may yield good stocks.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Happy Chinese Gu Year!

My schedule is fully booked all the way to Saturday evening 7pm. Yes this is how many events ChartNexus has lined up in recent months. The best part... everyday is almost 17 hours long... including events plus office work plus trading...really can feel fatique... though tired... my mind is not at ease unless i blogged tonight. For i am waiting for thursday night to affirm my market opinion. Before i commence on my trading plan, let me first thank you all for your kind support all these years. Whether you are ChartNexus user, Graduate or just drop by to visit, i wish you all the best in health and wealth in the gu year! Huat arh!

All week long the market swings up and swings down.... but my heart and sight were set on Thursday closing. My focus is on the key support levels of major indices and most stocks. Now with such a closing, my bearish view is more or less certain and i look forward to more profits and may even keep my shorts over the new year and add more. Capland is now firmly in profit but my cosco is bery disappointing... still holding above 80 cts.. HSI is also deep in profit and i may see 11.8k akan datang? So long Dow and Nikkei stay below 8k... i think HSI won't be able to pop up. Although i am right about the market direction this time, let me assure you i am not always right all the time. I merely traded with an opinion and follow my plan. If you read the post from Monday, you will know i did not predict today's market outcome. I am anticipating and then trade accordingly. Just like beginning of the year, i was bull but was quick to realise i was wrong and quickly turn to short till today. Trading is really not that difficult if you are willing to put time and effort in learning the craft and most importantly observe and remember what had happened. This is because history always like to repeat itself... but in different shapes and sizes. Heard about cause and effect? To know where the market is heading, we must know what had happened before or happening now. This is how i conjure anticipations.

Currently i have two bad positions in the market. TopGlov of KLSE and AAPL of Nasdaq. Especially for the bad position on AAPL, i must elaborate. I actually deserved it. This is because i didn't do my due dilligence. I shorted AAPL just because i feel Dow will close below 8k by Friday and totally unaware of the results on the same day i shorted. By now all should know that despite December's super bad retail data, AAPL sold more Ipods and Iphones than expected. Hence now i am sitting on this loss. However i am still lucky as AAPL has gapped up and is trading lower with the dow firmly below 8k... Hence i still have a chance that it will actually close ugly by tomorrow morning.

For tomorrow, if Asia markets closed below MTL levels. I will add to my shorts and keep over the weekend. Otherwise, the only thing i fear is a KRD tomorrow. I have to be wary of that because govt may step in to support the markets at the key levels.

恭喜发财!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Dow 8k support cracked

O yes... my account swells up nicely over the last few days. I think the old me would have been grinning ear to ear.. but now older and also wiser, i know these are just paper profits. My mind was actually not on how much profit i have made by now since the start of the year. Rather, i am thinking about the trading opportunities that were coming up ahead. For i know, if i look at the paper profits, the emotion may get the better of my analysis. Singapore market seem to be holding up well. Remember i keep mentioning how a local event may hold up the selling while the rest of the market crashes? It seems to be this is the case happening right now. How can we see bloodshed on HSI, Nikkei plus Dow and we actually finish better than them? If this is not a godsend opportunity, then i don't know what is. So going forward, it is going to be interesting.

Look, as i have always mentioned year after year... Thursday is important as it gives clue to how the week may close. Those who attended the last traders club meeting would know what i am talking about because i shared in a mere 5 mins presentation on my anticipation of the global stock market. Given that Dow is teasing 8k... If Friday night it closes below 8k firmly, then next week will be pretty ugly. And we will be having holidays! Hence who on earth dare to hold on to their positions over the holiday. That's why my focus this week will be whether to add to shorts or cover back before the holidays. I am still pondering... it all depends on Thursday. If anything, i may even add to shorts if we bounce just because of budget day while the rest of the world goes down. I am salivating even thinking about it. At most i hedge my position by playing blackjack over the holidays.. hahaha Look, i think it is wise to risk profits for more gains. Like they say, no enter the tiger's den, no get the cubs.... keke

Alot of stocks are languishing at the support... once cracked... one by one they shall fall... i will exercise patience in waiting.. for i know if i short at support, i am an idiot. Cosco for example, this nut is damn tough to crack! At least my HSI and capland is obedient... cosco i dunno what is it waiting for... maybe it's not it's turn.. maybe it's a chance to load up more shorts? Maybe maybe....

For tonight, i shorted AAPL after monitoring it since Steve Jobs went on medical leave... the poor fella. I respect and like him alot for his spirit and intelligence and business acumen... He spoke at some university graduation and wow... what an inspiring speech... one of the reason why i quit my job as an IT engineer and into the trading world full time.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Bradley turn date is here!

The bradley turn date which i am wary of since last week is finally here. This is known as astrology analysis... how come so coincidence that the Obama inauguration is on this day? Nan dao... it's really tian yi? keke Anyway, for the next few weeks, i would be busy at my work desk because i got some projects running and talking to some brokerage houses on marketing campaigns. That's why you don't see me chatting on the blog... but i will be back after i close some corporate deals. wahahaha

We had our traders club meeting tonight and the outcome of the meeting is everyone is looking to short once support gives way. With the current rebound in the stock market.... it is time to look out for those highs to ambush again. Current levels are still too close to support. Hence it's better for me to wait for the rebound to end. Still holding on to my shorts. I think by Thursday, i will know whether i am right or wrong for my bearish view. Meanwhile just twiddle fingers and wait for Dow to trade tomorrow night! Currently FTSE is threatening to break 4k... if only HSI and Nikkei leads STI to holland... then it will be a good CNY... keke

A pretty muted market today... volume seems to have been dwindling down after the roaring start to 2009. It is important to observe how market reacts to the new budget this Thursday. So the question to ask should be what is the plan if the market rallies after the announcement, or what is the plan if the market falls after it. The wrong question to ask is, will market goes up or down after the budget. This type of question only causes confusions as you will be trying to guess the direction. You are not in control and also don't know what to look out for.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Singapore to tap reserves?

I thought i heard wrongly... did you guys watched the news tonight? Did they really mention about tapping into the national reserves? In recent history, i can only remember the late president Mr Ong Teng Cheong wanted to tap the reserves... if they are thinking to do it now... i think it speaks volume about the current global financial crisis. Even Obama and Bush keep hinting that they cannot wait anymore and need the bail out plan to be approved. How about the recent banks news? They did not fail to beat estimates on the downside... woah~~ As GC would put it, even my Morgan Stanley short could make money... i think the world is really in trouble.

Technically what i see is currently we are at this delicate junction. We have turned down from the 20-weeks moving average in most of the index charts. This is also the reason why i am sticking to my shorts. To me, yes maybe there could be a rebound since the market is over-sold. But what happen afterwards? Most of the folks i talked to are predicting a sell off after CNY. Hence my choices include to "loon" this rebound and then add to shorts. Otherwise, i can run first and look to short when the market turns. Seriously, the greed is getting to me and on some occassions i can't bear to take the profits. I have no problems in taking small losses... however to miss profits... i feel that is one of the most excruciating pain one can ever feel... in hokkien it's called "cake sim"... sleep can be affected and depression may set in.

If we falls further from here, i think we can safely declare that we are going to test the October's low. Look guys, if market is going to close higher in 2009, it can always go down first and then back to 2000 level near Dec'09. How possible it is to keep going higher till Dec'09? Fundamentally, there is no reason to buy now... technically, the stock market hasn't gone through a market base. For those who is interested to know what to look out for in a market bottom, either do a google, or you can search this blog.. i think i wrote about it many years ago.

If you look at Suntec, the sudden selling is a grim reminder that we are in a bear market. It was moving up nicely until the 5-day decline. It is not the only stock that has behaved this way... infact reits counters may be late. I recall since late last year, i notice this pattern of pump and dump in numerous sectors.

US will be taking Mon and Tues off....our market will be at the mercy of HSI and Nikkei. HSI like what i said before has failed at the weekly chart resistance. Delicate... if it can close above the current levels... it can spur another rally. OTherwise, if i am right, then 12.3k akan datang. As for my shorts on capitaland and cosco, i may have to loon the rebound for now... i am getting uncomfortable with the dojis.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Dow kissing 8000 points

My 东风 finally arrived... i am happy that my patience paid off handsomely as all my short positions swing into profits finally. The bad retail sales figure crashed the 8.3k support on Dow... i was thinking whether to take profit... but a check on the charts... it seems like there is more downside to capitaland and cosco? Why the heck is it not breaking 80 cts? What's so good about it's business or results? Is it setting up for a big sell down in coming days? The brief rebound during the intra-day did affected me. I began to hallucinate, what if the market rebounds and my handsome profit becomes a whimper? For much of the day, i was actually trying hard to not think about it. Mentally i have set the stops to where i will run road. I am so glad when the market closed at the lows... All eyes will be on Dow's 8000 support tonight. This may be the defence line for the confidence of the market... break that, HSI 12,300 akan datang? The best way to calm myself down is that i am risking a portion of my profits for bigger profits.... it made sense.. even if it rebounds tomorrow, at least i know, i tried to win big... i am willing to accept a smaller profit. Anyway, wasn't i wrong just last week about market and it made me realise where is the money to be made? Hence i won't rule out turning long just for the sake of a possible bounce next week. SGX at $4.70 may be delicious..

For those of you who have been faithfully reading this blog, i hope the last two's blog posting has shown you how i admitted i was wrong about the market going upwards and subsequently i began to build my short positions. I was never sure that the market is going to come down. I merely formed a market opinion based on technical analysis and trade my opinion. The trick is, when you are wrong, do not be stubborn but readily accept your mistake and move on. I have seen so many people got burnt in the stock market because their ego and pride took over them and they stuck to their mistakes through thick and thin...an opinion about the market is worth nothing unless you make money from it. The next important thing is, when we are wrong, we lose small... but when we are right, hoot tua tua!! dare dare win big! Most importantly... i hope this inspire you that, if i being a friendly neighbourhood blogger can do it, so can you!

My profit target for Morgan Stanley was hit at US$16.. This is so much easier than my options days... where there are so many things to check... no doubt the leverage is higher... well, actually if you realise it, it is the ability to identify the direction of the price that is more important. That's why through the years, people ask me, which is better? Stocks, forex, futures, options? i tell them the ability to forecast direction is the most important as knowing it will allow you to have the ability to trade any of the financial instrument.

The weak closing of the stock market caught my eye when i returned to office in the afternoon.... i was actually out for a meeting most of the day. Following which, i shorted a malaysia stock which has been going up unbelievably.


Thursday nights are always important to me as i will try to forecast and visualise how the week will close. Now as seen on the above chart. It is trading at the resistance (blue line). Hence my opinion is, Dow close lower and that this stock which rally so high will be resisted right here and died from there down to at least RM3.80. With the profit from Morgan Stanley secured, i will risk it for this trade.

Tonight my eyes are on APPLE INC. There is a big D-triangle formed and now it has broken out of the resistance.. however there is still a minor low at US$79 to be taken out... following that, downside at least to a possible US$72. However, AAPL is now trading higher at US$81. I shall bide my time... unless sleepiness take over me.

I left my cosco, capitaland and hsi shorts open....I waiting to see Dow breaks 8k. Breaking 8.3k is a very significant matter and it may have put a dent to the confidence of this market. It is currently flirting around 8000 tonight... i just need one more night... just one more night to crash through it and i shall take my year-start bonus willingly and celebrate CNY earlier... keke C'mon, just one more night! Let's break 8000 points!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Can the support holds? I hope not!

It wasn't the kind of start i would have liked. STI threatens on the upside and most stocks rallied. To say i was unflustered would be a big lie. I had thought about turning long from here due to the surprising strength. Thoughts about budget day rally, obama rally filled my head... what if i am wrong and today is a key reversal day? I had to calm myself down and focus on my trading plan... that still won't do. I began to visualise my loss if i am wrong. At most i will lose my 2009 profits but if i am right, i will make more than what i had already made in 2009. Wasn't my new year resolution to be more agressive and win big money in 2009? Then why am i so fearful to risk my profits? If i lose them, i will just have to grind the profits back again and then once again look to take bigger risk! With that in mind, i stood up and jio R for an early lunch.

After my lunch, i got more and more confused, why is STI so firm despite a weak Nikkei? Even HSI wasn't moving much. I reminded myself of 2006... that year when because of an election in Singapore, we bucked the trend and afterwards paid back in double the time. Hence so long Nikkei doesn't look good, i'm keeping to my shorts. Boy am i glad to see HSI teasing 13.8k which is my MTL level after lunch. Also, STI majam punchek and we saw huge retracement. I heave a huge sigh of relief! After the 13.8k gave way, i somersaulted my long position in HSI to a short position at around 13,700. By closing, it was a joy to see both my capland and cosco back to day lows. However after i checked my charts after the market closed... the volume is actually nothing to shout about. Worse of all, capitaland actually finished with a graveyard doji, similar to STI. Now i need this doji to fail. Otherwise, i'm back to sq 1. HSI weakness is startling. I wonder why the big weakness. Or is market setting up for a big rally next week?

Now it will be silly of me to submerse myself in joy too soon.... the battle hasn't been won yet. Like Zhou yu said in Red Cliff II, whether i win or lose, it depends on tonight. Zhuge Liang predicted the "Dong" wind... similarly, i need Dow to close below 8.3k or below 8k would be even better by end of the week since econ data is due out. Otherwise Obama to say something negative about the stimulus package is also welcomed. Hence my plan would be to take profits on the way down. If heaven is unkind and decide to punish me for my shorts, i will look see how the week close and where possible may add shorts on the way up if i find the market in selling mode. The pump and sell syndrome looks to be happening recently.

Midas - today's heavy dumping is very uncommon for a stock with such a good base in a bull market. Maybe afterall we are really not in a bull market anymore since it is 2 months since the last October low. Like what GC said, i never make any money when i go long and instead i seem to make whenever i short. Doesn't it means prices are not going up but coming down?

SPH - my pain and regret... i am silly enough to think that being a defensive stock, the downside is limited. My sell signal actually came in at the last Traders club meeting but because it is usually very slow, i choose to ignore it. Never thought this elephant can make at least 10%... 4T%@$%@#%#$

STI - It has a graveyard doji at support... tomorrow if we have a confirmation... my shorts have to be careful already. On the weekly chart, i am still hallucinating a long black candle... keke

If you are looking at FX, this is really a wierd day... even FX major pairs are jumping off the cliff... c'mon, i waited for so long..... let this be one of my memorable year!.....lao arh market! lao arh!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Rally or rally not?

By now the burning question on everybody's mind will be, will there be a rally? We are just one week away from the important calendar events. The market is showing alot of weakness here. Some of the stocks had broken support levels. One good example was SGX, how i was long and had to cut when the market turned ugly on Friday. Boy am i glad i had been disciplined. The rest like banks and properties were mercilessly sold down. Not to mention Off shore as well. Recalling what i wrote about keeping close tab on offshore and observe how it did not re-challenge the resistance while props and banks rallied. This is what i call sector analysis.

Look, if you are new to trading, it is important for you to always study the bigger picture first before trading individual stock. If you had observed since last October, it will not be difficult to see that what lead the market in the rebound was offshore, props and banks. The rest is what i call supporting plays... just like "Tao jie" in little nonya or "Yuzhu" or "Liu yi dao"... the stars are clearly chen xi and yueniang cum juxiang. This is just my way of reading the market and i may be wrong here.

I missed the Jan rally because i saw offshore as a warning sign when it fails to break the resistance. When props start to fall, i know market is coming down and hence shorted. Remember i had wanted to be a bull. But offshore is giving signs... then when offshore and banks are coming off, i think i have to kiss my bullishness goodbye. Now, all will be lost if, we tank big time from here lead by a nervy market or bad news. Otherwise, we may just be a trading range. I must say, we are hanging precauriously at support levels. Some support levels have already given way and that is bad...

How to use the bradley turn date to your advantage? Simple, the week leading to the date is most important. If we are down, then the date shall reverse the market higher, if we are higher, the date will reverse the market lower. If market trades sideways to the date, then god bless the stock market. haha



Semb Mar: Like most offshores, this stock suffered the same fate. This one still has some meat left should I intend to short on breakout to the downside. The dojis two days earlier is a grim reminder of how tricky the market has been where it mislead the market into thinking there is some form of support. Upon close scrunity, it reminded me that dojis are only powderful when it is accompanied by high volume.


Midas: Interesting stock screened from high-volume rule. The sound base actually caught my attention sometime back however due to my cautiousness i was waiting for 0.48 before attempting a shot at it. Looks like i won't get it at that price anymore... breakout play suggest possible target of 0.715. Isn't it just wierd! When most stocks are losing their ground, the base of this stock look very sound based on volume and price actions.



HSI and my MTL level. Win-win situation... break it i will somersault my long position into short. rebound? i can add to my long position.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Wicked twist

If my memory did not fail me, the market had ignored alot of bad news last few weeks and edge higher. The news recently is full of job losses and more job cuts to come. In a typical theoretical market bottom, it is said that when the market is full of pessimism, that is where the bottom is. However, we must see a typical bottom action technically in the market inorder to supplement the above statement. That is, the market should trade in small bodied candles and form a good base amidst the extreme pessimism. What we are seeing now maybe a bear market rally. Right now, i could feel the market is starting to weigh in on the massive job losses that is going on around the globe.

Alas, nothing has changed...the current graduating adults is facing what i was going through once... i remember that jobs were hard to come by and the recruit section was as thin as toilet paper. That is when i know, i cannot depend on employment... especially once we are into our 40s... the fear factor will be there. Sometimes when the companies lay off, it is not based on performance, it is based on job functions being outsourced. And when we are in the 40s... tough man... at least that's what i think. That's what draws me to trading. The most empowering thought is, no one can take this away from me and i will only get more valuable as i age.... just like a vintage pinot.. wahaha The worse part is if Obama subscribes to protectionism, will he move jobs back to US?

My anticipation of a grand stand finale didn't materialise on Friday. At noon, when the market started to head higher bolstered by nikkei's surge, i covered my F&N short and turn long on SGX while still keeping my HSI long betting the strong finale. News filtered in in the afternoon about cosco's projects cancellation about 3pm and couple that, HSI started peeling off again. I visioned the weekly charts of HSI and STI, we are at resistance and if we failed here, it would be better to be cautious because market can turn down from here as we have rebounded nearly 20% off the lows of October. What's more, STI has this shooting star on the weekly chart at the 20-week MA... how not to be bearish? Such a good volume week and we are unable to close higher... "pump and sell" syndrome? Hence i shorted 2 stocks and cut my SGX in succession on Friday. Cosco & Capitaland. Both broke key support levels. With Dow's weak closing, Monday morning should see selling... it is how the market absorb the selling that will be of key interest to me. To me, now i'm going to be a bear and see how low can market goes before the rally. I'm still keeping my HSI long until the 13.8k is broken. No doubt it is a drag on my profits. But if the market do an unexpected, and tua rally from mid-week, then i will make more money! Otherwise eat kachang puteh for now...


HSI: If anything, Monday's weak opening may be a good chance to long HSI. So long the triangle trendline is not compromised and the 13.8k holds. It could be a bear trap to kill all the bears and then tua rally from here to at least 15,500s where we have to be careful again. The last round it failed at 15,800, i was slow to short because my anticipation was a firm and strong market which is wrong for now. Now why am i so hooked on HSI? This is because it leads STI most of the time and not to mention the S-shares... hence when we see HSI has a chance to reverse...we can look at S-shares for opportunities!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

A coin can stand on the edge afterall

Remember last night i was saying head or tail, i still win. The difference is whether big profit or small. The only way i can lose is the coin stood on it's edge. This is exactly what threatens to happen. It is amazing how my watchlist is full of reds then only F&N is trading up!!! How to explain this phenomenon? It's like market purposely want to squeeze me... well, if you are new to trading, Welcome to Trading... haha The best part is HSI keeps going lower and lower while F&N go higher and higher.. For the record, i am long hsi and short F&N... My view is market to be firm and trade higher to CNY. Hence the F&N is actually a hedge for my HSI long. My position is bigger in F&N and a small one in HSI. My plan was to accumulate HSI for CNY celebrations.


The last line of defence will be 13,800 thereabts... if HSI breaks that.. be prepared to see a breakdown. From where we close, it is just another 600 points away. Hence if even this level fails to hold. I cannot be a stubborn bull.

I had wanted to scoop more long positions today. However, my opinion of a firm Thursday went awry. I am wrong. That's why i didn't execute my order to buy more hsi. After my volume screening, today's volume is much lower than previous days. Although it doesn't neccessary mean it is a good thing. There will be a light of hope if Dow can support above 8,300. I would also need to see HSI lead Asia markets to a firm Friday. OTherwise, that dreadful 100MA line may be where history will remember as the major resistance that turned the market.

Finally, here are the results of stocks trading at/near 20MA:
Capitaland
CapitaMall
ChinaFish
CityDev (bearish div)
NOL
RafflesMG
SIA (bearish div)
Wilmar

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

How much is an idea worth

Alas i see profit in 2009!! I was rueing at how stupid i am to be so cautious until i totally miss the run-up in the beginning of the year. Inconsolable... even at the traders club meeting..my group can sense my emotion as i share on T.A... passion comes from within and i can't hide my emotions especially when i am not making money. I feel the pain of missing on opportunities more painful than having to cut loss. I'm serious! And today i met a friend whom i haven't seen for a long time and even she can tell from my face that i am not feeling well.. hahaha I guess she is reading this! :D

This morning just before i went for my meeting, i went to short F&N. This stock was the top pick along with Noble during last night's traders club meeting. Whether you are from 2006's "Cracking the stock market code" or 2007's "ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course" or the recent "Super Bundle" clients, the meeting's output is available at ChartNexus's forum here >>> http://www.chartnexus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1146&p=5077#p5077 . So you can benefit too. : )

The market's strong opening today didn't make me a happy man at all. Remember my plan was to buy dips and on intra-week weakness. If it had closed strong for 3rd consecutive day, it will make it very difficult to trade as my anticipation was wrong. Fortunately when the market crashed in the afternoon, i know first part of my anticipation came true... with my short in the morning firmly in the money, i went to long HSI. Remember it is my anticipation that the market should be firm until 20th Jan that week. Hence i wanted to buy dips. The trick is, i am doing scale down buying. With the money from F&N short, it allows me to collect HSI on the way down to support. If i am wrong, at most all my profits may be wiped out. But if i am right, i will square off my F&N for profits and then the market will tua rally and my long on HSI will make me even more money! By the way, my trade on HSI was the first using my mobile phone! keke wah pretty cool... the execution of the order was fast too. Just hope when i receive my phone bill the data charge is not expensive!

I remember this favourite lesson from Soros. He said, "It is how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong that matters." I am doing exactly that. I mean no matter how much i can talk about my trading plan... how much i can talk about how right i am about the market, ultimately it is how much i make from my trading idea that matters most. I have had enough of being right about the market and not making a lot of money. When offshore was not moving higher, i know the market may be in trouble, i was right... but did i make money? NO! I posted Yanlord has an inverse head and shoulder, did i make money? NO! Then why the heck am i still trading... i was so angry with myself...useless hum ji trader.. the light volumein December caused me to be too cautious and miss so much opportunities.. That's why when the market finally moving according to my anticipations, i have to be agressive. I don't like to be right only on paper.

Time is not on my side. My folks are growing old, my grandma is in her eighties... i have the ability to profit consistently from the trading... now i need to move it to another level and that is to create wealth. There are 3 stages in the career of a trader... stage 1 is where we have to survive in the market, stage 2 is where we profit consistently from the market and stage 3 is where we make massive profits! Without a doubt, it's time i gun for the third phase. ChartNexus Traders Club members, all of us must be gunning for this! Huat arh!

I am n0w looking for a firm Thursday. If it really happens, which by afternoon i should know, i will go long and bet a grand stand finish to the week by Friday.
The shocking observation was how the volume had actually remained high as the market pull back. Now two things can happen.... if the selling stop by tomorrow, that may mean all the weak holders have flushed out and market is ready to rally. Most of the people i know who had turn long from late last year had sold clean clean by today. Pocketing good profits. Which mean, they are ready to step into the market. Hence my view on a firm thursday would mean a buy for me. Now the second scnario which is also the most ugliest, the market is going to turn down from here and back into the 2 months low. Which means the recent run-up was indeed the pump and sell tactic. If this happens, my short on F&N will make money and i shall cut HSI for a nett profit which is still decent. The only way i lose money is HSI to crash more than F&N... This i tried my best to contain by having small position on HSI long. I can withstand a 1k downswing from today's closing price. Head or tail i also win... i lose only if the coin stands on it's edge. Let's see how much is my idea worth by the end of the week!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, January 05, 2009

20 Jan 2009 <<< Mark this week!

Wah~~~ STI leads global market in rally leh! haha 5%!!! HSI only managed only 3%... The only reason i can think of is Singapore's budget day which is on the 22nd Jan. Market generally will be firm leading to the budget day. To trade this calendar date, one have to observe if there is any significant movement just before the budget day as sometimes market reacts earlier to the actual details... and do not forget the sell on news effect. Let us not forget Obama will take office also during that week. Now more interestingly, according to bradley, there is a major turn date also during that week! haha Looks like 3 weeks from now we may have an important pivoting point in the stock market. This rally may take us past 2k.

After looking at my volume screening rule, I can see that a number of stocks already failed at 100 DMA. But a good majority of them still have some distance before this significant resistance. Ideally, broadbase market should turn right here. When i say turn, it may be just a retracment and not a reversal. How do we distinguish the two? Simple, reversal will see us break the previous high plus low. While retracement will see us supported at some forms of technical support levels. I personally is attracted to Fibonacci 38.2% or the resistance turns support of many counters.

While properties and financials already broke out of resistance, Offshore sector due to the drag by Cosco last week actually is still yet to break out. One of them, Ezra is showing a great chart pattern and may be poised to breakout. SembMar has a similar pattern.

Hang Seng Index is closing in on my resistance zone... the morning's selling was well absorbed and we saw how it powers ahead in the afternoon. I painted a scenario, HSI to break above 15,800 then pulls back intra-day... that may be a good chance to turn long and then we see HSI close above 16k. The other scenario is we have weakness on tuesday and wednesday then thursday HSI firms up and close the week in a bullish tone.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Big start to 2009; How to ambush hang seng

What a roaring start to 2009 as we see major markets rally big time and most stocks are green green on the watchlist. But I did not benefited from the run-up on Friday. The green green market make me green with envy.. at this point in time, i had to ask myself, what did i miss? How come i miss it. If i travel back in time, would i have done the same.... answer is probably yes. Results were bad, econ numbers coming in were bad. What basis can the market rally upon? If anything, only window dressing can be the only answer. If so, then we should watch out for selling because window dressing at most last a week as far as i can remember, sometimes it only last a few days... the important thing to observe going forward will be the weak candles after the recent run-up.

Now those stuffs i missed:
1. Market didn't go lower on any bad news
2. The risk/reward of going long is pretty
3. Properties & the Financials were trading at their higher low support after the last round of rally.
4. Off-shore came again as i had blogged about last week.
I had wanted to see strength. However, offshore's didn't head much higher. Especially after Cosco's poor guidance. I am wary because going by the pattern, i would have expected Cosco to ignore the bad news and advance on Friday which it did not. It caused a drag on the offshore sector.
5. Stock market is 6 months faster than Fundamentals
6. Stock market already down for 7 months without a decent rebound... the probability is higher.
7. Obama takes office in Jan
8. Singapore budget day in Jan

You can look at Midas... very strong rally after October... burst through all the resistances and even trades above the 100-day ma... look where is it now? I painted a possible scenario, these stocks which had lead the rally, stalls, wait for others to catchup, and then altogether they crash downwards again. That's why you see me observing offshores keenly although i have yet to have any vested interest in the stock market. I always put market direction as the priority. Anyway, for those like me who is sidelined, after such a hefty fall, market may be side way for some time before the next bull market returns... hence plenty of chances!



Hang Seng: Like a bear, when i saw HSI rebounded off 13,700s which is the trendline support of the Ascending triangle, i refuse to long. This is because i didn't rule out a trading range for HSI. My resistance zone for HSI is from 15,700 to 15,200.... any weak candle formation confirms with weak indicators i will take a short position. If it burst through, i will somersault the position to long and 17,300s is where the next resistance may be. One warning though, whipsaw can hurt the confidence level especially when you trade HSI. A way to remain composed and handle whipsaw is to reduce your position size. Although all these levels are in the vincinity of 1000 points at least, due to the huge volatility, HSI can achieve those levels within days. Which explains why i am so obsessed with it for so many years.. keke

I will also be agressive in growing my wealth in 2009. I have finally settled in my new life as a married man since late last year and thus can trade in peace now. I believed my wife has finally understood the demands of trading and would be as understanding as she can be. (I wonder if she will read this) keke.
For 2009, i will be employing a more agressive money management style which i used before my marriage. I didn't practise this in 2008 because i wasn't sure of my finances commitment as it is my first time setting up a family. Furthermore i was shocked that my time had to be divided for in-laws, my own folks and then wife it wasn't mention in the oath... gone were the days where i can read charts as and when i like. keke All through 2008, i couldn't find my rythem until Nov'08. I believe T.A is only a part of the picture and it is not difficult to pick up. I may not be the best in T.A but am comfortable in applying them in my trades with positive results. The next thing i am going to focus on is Money Management. Ok the money management style is to first grow my account to 20% and then using it to take more risk. Take more risk as in increasing position size hor, doesn't mean buy blindly. These way, the money will grow faster when i am right about the market. If i am wrong, at most i give back the profits then i restart by grinding out the 20% returns again and then take bigger risk. Never ever risk CAPITAL!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, January 01, 2009

Offshore, Props & Banks

Orite.. 2008 is over! Get ready for 2009! First of all, tomorrow my eyes will be on props, banks and offshore! These are the 3 sectors that will keep me occupied for the first few trading sessions. The stuffs i am observing is whether Offshore will break the last high, banks and props are forming a base? Ok, i'm not saying the rest of the sectors won't move... what i'm pretty confident is, if the 3 sectors moved, it means the market is poised to head higher and thus other sectors may be dagged along.

Hang Seng's A-triangle is looking more and more potential... however i still feel tomorrow's session will be another thin session since traders may take the long weekend.. Nevertheless, it's better we watch it incase it runs away.

After nearly 2 weeks of thin trades, we are ready to burst into a direction... To benefit from this, i would be looking at index stocks instead of mid cap. The reason is simple, index is the one being dressed. I remember how i used to curse and swear when the whole market is green and my stocks are not moving! hahaha Wrong stocks ma, how to make money leh! However if i am long stocks, i will be SUPER EXTRA NIMBLE. This is because if you look at the weekly charts, many are near their resistance offered by the BB centerline...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.