Monday, January 05, 2009

20 Jan 2009 <<< Mark this week!

Wah~~~ STI leads global market in rally leh! haha 5%!!! HSI only managed only 3%... The only reason i can think of is Singapore's budget day which is on the 22nd Jan. Market generally will be firm leading to the budget day. To trade this calendar date, one have to observe if there is any significant movement just before the budget day as sometimes market reacts earlier to the actual details... and do not forget the sell on news effect. Let us not forget Obama will take office also during that week. Now more interestingly, according to bradley, there is a major turn date also during that week! haha Looks like 3 weeks from now we may have an important pivoting point in the stock market. This rally may take us past 2k.

After looking at my volume screening rule, I can see that a number of stocks already failed at 100 DMA. But a good majority of them still have some distance before this significant resistance. Ideally, broadbase market should turn right here. When i say turn, it may be just a retracment and not a reversal. How do we distinguish the two? Simple, reversal will see us break the previous high plus low. While retracement will see us supported at some forms of technical support levels. I personally is attracted to Fibonacci 38.2% or the resistance turns support of many counters.

While properties and financials already broke out of resistance, Offshore sector due to the drag by Cosco last week actually is still yet to break out. One of them, Ezra is showing a great chart pattern and may be poised to breakout. SembMar has a similar pattern.

Hang Seng Index is closing in on my resistance zone... the morning's selling was well absorbed and we saw how it powers ahead in the afternoon. I painted a scenario, HSI to break above 15,800 then pulls back intra-day... that may be a good chance to turn long and then we see HSI close above 16k. The other scenario is we have weakness on tuesday and wednesday then thursday HSI firms up and close the week in a bullish tone.

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