Monday, January 12, 2009

Rally or rally not?

By now the burning question on everybody's mind will be, will there be a rally? We are just one week away from the important calendar events. The market is showing alot of weakness here. Some of the stocks had broken support levels. One good example was SGX, how i was long and had to cut when the market turned ugly on Friday. Boy am i glad i had been disciplined. The rest like banks and properties were mercilessly sold down. Not to mention Off shore as well. Recalling what i wrote about keeping close tab on offshore and observe how it did not re-challenge the resistance while props and banks rallied. This is what i call sector analysis.

Look, if you are new to trading, it is important for you to always study the bigger picture first before trading individual stock. If you had observed since last October, it will not be difficult to see that what lead the market in the rebound was offshore, props and banks. The rest is what i call supporting plays... just like "Tao jie" in little nonya or "Yuzhu" or "Liu yi dao"... the stars are clearly chen xi and yueniang cum juxiang. This is just my way of reading the market and i may be wrong here.

I missed the Jan rally because i saw offshore as a warning sign when it fails to break the resistance. When props start to fall, i know market is coming down and hence shorted. Remember i had wanted to be a bull. But offshore is giving signs... then when offshore and banks are coming off, i think i have to kiss my bullishness goodbye. Now, all will be lost if, we tank big time from here lead by a nervy market or bad news. Otherwise, we may just be a trading range. I must say, we are hanging precauriously at support levels. Some support levels have already given way and that is bad...

How to use the bradley turn date to your advantage? Simple, the week leading to the date is most important. If we are down, then the date shall reverse the market higher, if we are higher, the date will reverse the market lower. If market trades sideways to the date, then god bless the stock market. haha

Semb Mar: Like most offshores, this stock suffered the same fate. This one still has some meat left should I intend to short on breakout to the downside. The dojis two days earlier is a grim reminder of how tricky the market has been where it mislead the market into thinking there is some form of support. Upon close scrunity, it reminded me that dojis are only powderful when it is accompanied by high volume.

Midas: Interesting stock screened from high-volume rule. The sound base actually caught my attention sometime back however due to my cautiousness i was waiting for 0.48 before attempting a shot at it. Looks like i won't get it at that price anymore... breakout play suggest possible target of 0.715. Isn't it just wierd! When most stocks are losing their ground, the base of this stock look very sound based on volume and price actions.

HSI and my MTL level. Win-win situation... break it i will somersault my long position into short. rebound? i can add to my long position.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.