Wednesday, January 07, 2009

How much is an idea worth

Alas i see profit in 2009!! I was rueing at how stupid i am to be so cautious until i totally miss the run-up in the beginning of the year. Inconsolable... even at the traders club group can sense my emotion as i share on T.A... passion comes from within and i can't hide my emotions especially when i am not making money. I feel the pain of missing on opportunities more painful than having to cut loss. I'm serious! And today i met a friend whom i haven't seen for a long time and even she can tell from my face that i am not feeling well.. hahaha I guess she is reading this! :D

This morning just before i went for my meeting, i went to short F&N. This stock was the top pick along with Noble during last night's traders club meeting. Whether you are from 2006's "Cracking the stock market code" or 2007's "ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course" or the recent "Super Bundle" clients, the meeting's output is available at ChartNexus's forum here >>> . So you can benefit too. : )

The market's strong opening today didn't make me a happy man at all. Remember my plan was to buy dips and on intra-week weakness. If it had closed strong for 3rd consecutive day, it will make it very difficult to trade as my anticipation was wrong. Fortunately when the market crashed in the afternoon, i know first part of my anticipation came true... with my short in the morning firmly in the money, i went to long HSI. Remember it is my anticipation that the market should be firm until 20th Jan that week. Hence i wanted to buy dips. The trick is, i am doing scale down buying. With the money from F&N short, it allows me to collect HSI on the way down to support. If i am wrong, at most all my profits may be wiped out. But if i am right, i will square off my F&N for profits and then the market will tua rally and my long on HSI will make me even more money! By the way, my trade on HSI was the first using my mobile phone! keke wah pretty cool... the execution of the order was fast too. Just hope when i receive my phone bill the data charge is not expensive!

I remember this favourite lesson from Soros. He said, "It is how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong that matters." I am doing exactly that. I mean no matter how much i can talk about my trading plan... how much i can talk about how right i am about the market, ultimately it is how much i make from my trading idea that matters most. I have had enough of being right about the market and not making a lot of money. When offshore was not moving higher, i know the market may be in trouble, i was right... but did i make money? NO! I posted Yanlord has an inverse head and shoulder, did i make money? NO! Then why the heck am i still trading... i was so angry with myself...useless hum ji trader.. the light volumein December caused me to be too cautious and miss so much opportunities.. That's why when the market finally moving according to my anticipations, i have to be agressive. I don't like to be right only on paper.

Time is not on my side. My folks are growing old, my grandma is in her eighties... i have the ability to profit consistently from the trading... now i need to move it to another level and that is to create wealth. There are 3 stages in the career of a trader... stage 1 is where we have to survive in the market, stage 2 is where we profit consistently from the market and stage 3 is where we make massive profits! Without a doubt, it's time i gun for the third phase. ChartNexus Traders Club members, all of us must be gunning for this! Huat arh!

I am n0w looking for a firm Thursday. If it really happens, which by afternoon i should know, i will go long and bet a grand stand finish to the week by Friday.
The shocking observation was how the volume had actually remained high as the market pull back. Now two things can happen.... if the selling stop by tomorrow, that may mean all the weak holders have flushed out and market is ready to rally. Most of the people i know who had turn long from late last year had sold clean clean by today. Pocketing good profits. Which mean, they are ready to step into the market. Hence my view on a firm thursday would mean a buy for me. Now the second scnario which is also the most ugliest, the market is going to turn down from here and back into the 2 months low. Which means the recent run-up was indeed the pump and sell tactic. If this happens, my short on F&N will make money and i shall cut HSI for a nett profit which is still decent. The only way i lose money is HSI to crash more than F&N... This i tried my best to contain by having small position on HSI long. I can withstand a 1k downswing from today's closing price. Head or tail i also win... i lose only if the coin stands on it's edge. Let's see how much is my idea worth by the end of the week!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.