Thursday, January 15, 2009

Dow kissing 8000 points

My 东风 finally arrived... i am happy that my patience paid off handsomely as all my short positions swing into profits finally. The bad retail sales figure crashed the 8.3k support on Dow... i was thinking whether to take profit... but a check on the charts... it seems like there is more downside to capitaland and cosco? Why the heck is it not breaking 80 cts? What's so good about it's business or results? Is it setting up for a big sell down in coming days? The brief rebound during the intra-day did affected me. I began to hallucinate, what if the market rebounds and my handsome profit becomes a whimper? For much of the day, i was actually trying hard to not think about it. Mentally i have set the stops to where i will run road. I am so glad when the market closed at the lows... All eyes will be on Dow's 8000 support tonight. This may be the defence line for the confidence of the market... break that, HSI 12,300 akan datang? The best way to calm myself down is that i am risking a portion of my profits for bigger profits.... it made sense.. even if it rebounds tomorrow, at least i know, i tried to win big... i am willing to accept a smaller profit. Anyway, wasn't i wrong just last week about market and it made me realise where is the money to be made? Hence i won't rule out turning long just for the sake of a possible bounce next week. SGX at $4.70 may be delicious..

For those of you who have been faithfully reading this blog, i hope the last two's blog posting has shown you how i admitted i was wrong about the market going upwards and subsequently i began to build my short positions. I was never sure that the market is going to come down. I merely formed a market opinion based on technical analysis and trade my opinion. The trick is, when you are wrong, do not be stubborn but readily accept your mistake and move on. I have seen so many people got burnt in the stock market because their ego and pride took over them and they stuck to their mistakes through thick and opinion about the market is worth nothing unless you make money from it. The next important thing is, when we are wrong, we lose small... but when we are right, hoot tua tua!! dare dare win big! Most importantly... i hope this inspire you that, if i being a friendly neighbourhood blogger can do it, so can you!

My profit target for Morgan Stanley was hit at US$16.. This is so much easier than my options days... where there are so many things to check... no doubt the leverage is higher... well, actually if you realise it, it is the ability to identify the direction of the price that is more important. That's why through the years, people ask me, which is better? Stocks, forex, futures, options? i tell them the ability to forecast direction is the most important as knowing it will allow you to have the ability to trade any of the financial instrument.

The weak closing of the stock market caught my eye when i returned to office in the afternoon.... i was actually out for a meeting most of the day. Following which, i shorted a malaysia stock which has been going up unbelievably.

Thursday nights are always important to me as i will try to forecast and visualise how the week will close. Now as seen on the above chart. It is trading at the resistance (blue line). Hence my opinion is, Dow close lower and that this stock which rally so high will be resisted right here and died from there down to at least RM3.80. With the profit from Morgan Stanley secured, i will risk it for this trade.

Tonight my eyes are on APPLE INC. There is a big D-triangle formed and now it has broken out of the resistance.. however there is still a minor low at US$79 to be taken out... following that, downside at least to a possible US$72. However, AAPL is now trading higher at US$81. I shall bide my time... unless sleepiness take over me.

I left my cosco, capitaland and hsi shorts open....I waiting to see Dow breaks 8k. Breaking 8.3k is a very significant matter and it may have put a dent to the confidence of this market. It is currently flirting around 8000 tonight... i just need one more night... just one more night to crash through it and i shall take my year-start bonus willingly and celebrate CNY earlier... keke C'mon, just one more night! Let's break 8000 points!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.