Wednesday, February 28, 2007

A Historic Moment

This is a day to remember. Market performed worse than SARs, 911 combined... this is second only to gulf war in 1991. Open gapped down so much at open that short selling isn't sensible, going long needs courage. This is a good lesson where i must record down. Dec, if you are reading 2 yrs down the road, I hope you are leading the life you dream. Remember, money was never your motivation, it is the getting there. Always remain humble and learn, never ever 快乐无人格.

1) Never be over exposed to the market
2) Meltdown can happen suddenly
3) Never Greed . Always take profit on the way up
4) Never buy more than what you can afford to
5) In a panic sell like today, watch for rebound
6) Ask not what had happened or going to happen, but ask what you going to do when the market gets there

This selling is different. It is at the top. While many times when we have this kind of sell off, it is happening as a blow off move in a downtrend to reverse. Now I think we should watch out for bearish divergence in the making for what is to be coming....a rebound.

My plans:
1) Liquidate my positions at the next rebound, nevermind if the market continues to trade higher, if it does, prepare to short when I see a clear divergence.

2) Take a holiday, it was a good run in the market for the last 8 months. I want to note down all the things i did right at some beach under the hot sun with waves crashing onwards the shore and my eyes shielded from the glaring sun with my oakley......ahhh.... song!

There is nothing new in the market. The same things will happen again and again. Market never change because humans never change....spoken by Jesse Livermore, my ang mo shi fu.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Over Staying at a Party

Global market sold off with China leading the way. I have heard stories abt how the stocks in China are gapping up every day and that people are trading on margin until the authorities had to step in. Anyway I'm still reading George Soros book on Bubbles and boom, hopefully I can learn 1% from this genius day by day and be able to call a bubble before it explode. Also, I would like to remind myself how i overstayed at the party in 2006 and was caught in one ugly stock called Federal which chipped my profits for an otherwise brilliant 2006. Hence, i must be disciplined to act according to my experience and plans....not to be ruled by hoping that market can rebound...hoping that this is just a pull back. Any pull back has a chance to be creating a market top now simply because of the run up. Prudence!

Indices like STI, HSI rebounded off support levels. Firstly STI rebounded off 20MA, this 20MA has supported STI in bad times for the last 7 mths. STI RSI also reached a point where we should see a rebound. Otherwise, I will take more profits. Today I cut 2 positions namely my HSI CW and Media Ring. I will continue to tighten my stops if market goes against me. If my stops are not triggered, then this could mean a great chance to load up.

My view on HSI is we are in a trading range, 20k to 20.7k. If 20k gives way, time to short perhaps. HSI tested it's 50Ma today and it stood. A short should be initiated if 50MA gives way. A whole list of economic data is coming from US... volatile session ahead!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
Amara @ 0.450
Jasper @ 0.025
HSI CW
Aqua-Terra @ 0.560
BengKuan @ 0.670
AsiaEnv @ 0.475
Midas@ 1.50
SeeHS @ 0.530

Activities:
Sold MediaRing @0.420
Sold HSICW strike 20,600
Bought SeeHS @ 0.530
Bought HSICW strike 20,200

Shortists Haven : Not for the faint hearted...

To Watch How Support Level gives way
ChinaEnergy
ChinaMilk
FabChem
Fungchoi
HsuFuChi
Koh Bros
Reyoung
Yanlord

Too high too dangerous
Capland
CapRChina
ChinaSky
DBS
FerroChina
FibreChem
HoBee
SGX
SinoEnv
OCBC

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

When Trading Goes Sour...


AquaTerra: Result was good and very good forward looking which is inline with the rest of the industry. However! Issuing of rights diluted the share price, market is factoring in the dilution. Technical point of view shows that rebound is in sight. The question is, is it going to be a relief rebound in price or a resume of uptrend? Watch On.


Beng Kuang: Mistake here was complacency. The company did placement shares at 0.38 per share to private investors a day before I bought the stock. I did not do my due diligence and bought the stock solely base on Technical Trading Buy. On the chart, I would expect the up trend line to hold and that a breakout of the ascending triangle is still possible. It's reporting it's full year results end of February. Watch On.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Market Mo tuck Teng ah!

Market has a broad based rally and STI is at a level which made all the bears scrambling to cover their short positions. STI inches closer to 3300 magical level. Amazing!

They always say in trading, you must separate yourself from the crowd. I followed this philosophy last week when i detect retailers selling ahead of CNY, mostly not willing to risk their profits during the CNY. Analysts warned in their report of the impending stock market correction. I am also concerned, but experience taught me to plan and then execute only when the market gets there. I bought one stock when I see chng kay returning to sapu...wah heng i bought! keke

Today I bought Midas, although there was buy signal last week, because the risk of a correction was high, i did not dare try. But when I saw StraitsAsia went up like crazy, I know i have to try. Those who attended the Subscribers Session last week will remember 2 stocks were discussed, BengKuang and StraitsAsia, I bought BengKuang instead because I fear a sell off in China Shares...What a world of difference!!!!

I continue to favour Oil industry Suppliers after the likes of Rotary, Ausgrp, Swissco, Swiber rock the roof. Just like how i boldly declare my love for them at SGX Auditorium infront of the capacity crowd. But I had to buy Aqua and BengKuang ...... excuse me but i have to do this... Ta ma de!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
Amara @ 0.450
MediaRing @ 0.325
Jasper @ 0.025
HSI CW
Aqua-Terra @ 0.560
BengKuan @ 0.670
AsiaEnv @ 0.475
Midas@ 1.50

Activities:
Bought Midas at 1.50

GrowMoney Quickpicks
Ausgrp
ChinaSky
FerroChina
Gallant
SinoTech Fibre


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Happy Piggy New Year!

Decipher wishes all investors a bountiful, healthy and happy Piggy Year! May we continue to piggy back Ah gu all the way to STI 4000! Huat arh! : ) Also!!! Win more on the tables!! Big 4 Fortunes!! BlackJacks!! Best of all! Plenty of Aces when you play blackjack!! hahaha

Before I hibernate for the Chinese New Year Celebrations and become a chng kay on the blackjack table, I want to record down my observations. Now I have 2 years of solid trading dairy, we all can revisit the old archives and we will know what had happened in the market and conjure up anticipations.

Sesdaq had a beating this week as we see many stocks beaten down and only the index related are rallying. I suppose many retailers had the fear of a selldown after Chinese New Year and that they were cashing out their chips. This is particularly obvious on Friday, where it was observed during the morning the selling was very light in volume and then came mid day where chng kays come and sapu up shares at cheap. I too was cautious about what can happen after Chinese New Year, but! If alot of people had cashed out, then the likely hood of a crash becomes lesser. Everyone think the market will crash after Chinese New Year, so there is a possiblilty that it will be delayed. Why? Because in market, EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED! Hence I myself sapu'ed a stock to try try. keke

I took a large part of my money off the market by selling 4 stocks this week. This is inline with my risk management plans. I do not want to hold too many positions through the holidays and hence when my stops are triggered, i promptly and thankfully took my profits. Jiutian protective stop was triggered and guess what??? It went back up!!! Ki si lang!! But nevermind, I have to be discipline and afterall it was a big profit. I will never forget those painful days where my profits became losses!!! No more Stupid Trading!!! As for my losing positions in BengKuan and Aqua, I bought small at Bengkuan and intend to add when correct, however, it shocked the hell out of me when the chngkay just hands off and let the stock fell. What I did correct was to follow my trading signal and buy a smaller than usual position as the rest of the market looks shaky. As for Aqua, the rights issue will mean dilution of shares and hence the price is expected to fell. This is where charts can be thrown out of the window until the market decides a "fair price" and I will trade myself out of trouble.

I did not sell Hang Seng as yet because 21k is now a possibility once again! This after the market fails to break the 20k support and the rebound was strong as it retested the resistance immediately. Given a real bear, the rebound will not have been so strong, it needs serious buyers to do that. Retailers alone can't make up such strength, funds could be behind this.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
Amara @ 0.450
MediaRing @ 0.325
Jasper @ 0.025
HSI CW
Aqua-Terra @ 0.560
BengKuan @ 0.670
AsiaEnv @ 0.475

Activities:
Sold Jiutian @1.99
Bought BengKuan @ 0.670
Bought AsiaEnv @ 0.475


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Chao Aqua

Big Ben was friendly tonight and US has broken the 12,700 resistance... 13k looks possible for now. Now... we have a strong US market + Our own budget at 3pm tomorrow... I don't see why we cannot rally at least in the morning? My HSI 21k dream is alive once again. This after we close a possible bullish harami pattern pending a white candle confirmation tomorrow. With a 500 points decline on tuesday, the selling stopped and the major trendline holds out. If we can close a white candle tomorrow, Friday brings great chance to see HSI BBQ the shortists alive! I will stick to my plan for HSI as per decided over the weekend. As for the rest of the trades, i am still not adding aggressively and still looking to unload and relook.

The pattern recently seems to be sell on news...and it has to happen to both my counters!!! pui! Check out the charts below.



Chao Aqua.... the selling today is really disgusting, classic sell on news... here's my chart. While many placed their support at 0.540, mine was at 0.505 a worse case scenario when i put on the trade.



Cosco Corp: Another sell on news.... pui! Protective Stop Tightened!!


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Paring down holdings

STI closed the gap today. When the day began with a tint of bear scent, i decided to do the necessary.....book my profits. I took profits on 3 stocks which I didn't like the charts after my comprehensive analysis on Sunday. They were hesistant to move up and are just slightly in profits. Hence instead of allowing them to swing into losses, I book my profits for them, leaving the stronger and deep in the money stocks still on the table and observing my protective stops. What I have done is to reduce my risk exposure as CNY approaches. The market will tank without warning and if i am spread across the market with many stocks, profits will diminish should a complete meltdown hit us.

This week will be a volatile week with Economic data coming from US and Big Ben is going to speak on Wed & Thurs. Somehow, I have this warning alarm going off inside my head. It is wiser to be careful not to place any big position in the market before an important event.

As for HSI, it opened low and closed higher! We are at what we call the Pivotal point. HSI can tank or cheong from here. There is an air of uncertainty surrounding market since last week. If HSI refuse to close higher by Thursday or Friday, I will give up on my 21k target and enjoy a normal CNY instead.

Fantastic results by Cosco & TatHong was reported after hours. Chinasky's result is also spectacular and i read inbetween the lines that, there is a huge market for high end textile in mainland China. I will be looking out for buy signal in this industry group.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
JiuTian @ 1.05
Amara @ 0.450
MediaRing @ 0.325
Jasper @ 0.025
HSI CW
Aqua-Terra @ 0.560

Activities:
Capland babies bought 0.150 sold 0.165
FerroChina bought 1.42 sold 1.57
SeehupSeng bought 0.470 sold 0.485


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Ranging Bull Awaken From Nap

The selling today was very well absorbed and HSI did a wonderful reversal after lunch. In the morning it cheonged south at the opening bell dragging out China Darlings along. But after lunch, the spectacualr reversal happened and my target of 20,900 looks set to happen tomorrow!!!
Alot of our shares in SGX woke up and cheong as well. I picked up AquaTerra today after the latter was found in my system pick and although i'm fully vested, i dug into my reserves yet again. I decided to risk some of my profits and own a piece of the oil and gas services sector. Now looking at my portfolio, I have property, construction, hotel, oil and gas, china plays and a HSI warrants. Fully loaded and ready to unload come CNY. From the talk last night, I picked up some pointers from the audience, alot of people had sold too early, some are losing money in this bull market, some are looking for quick profits and the most obvious signs of all, almost everyone knows that they should watchout for the bears after Chinese New Year. Now, this is where we can take advantage of, if alot of people expect it to happen, then happen it shall not! I say we put on our protective stops and ride this raging bull all the way!!! Huat arh!




SeeHupSeng

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
JiuTian @ 1.05
FerroChina @ 1.42
Amara @ 0.450
MediaRing @ 0.325
Jasper @ 0.025
SeeHupSeng @ 0.470
HSI CW
CapLand CWs
Aqua-Terra @ 0.560

Activities:
Bought Aqua at 0.560 today

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

HSI 21,000 Boleh!

Looking at DJ's chart, I can't help but notice the high probability of a pull back. It is very extended right now and any pull back is only natural. However the fact that it is defying gravity and holding up seems the bulls are not giving up just as yet. Underlying tone is quite firm. I further checked the historical charts and found a similar pattern on Mar'03. There was a strong bullish move which stretches all the way to Mar'04. The similarity? There was no pull back. Current move starts in July'06, oh boy...can we match the same level? I am researching further on the economy front and other characteristics of the market back then to conjure an opinion. Right now, target of DJI hitting 13,000 is within grasp. We can achieve that, but bear in mind, it will not be 1 straight line up.

As budget day is drawing near, if STI is to rally, I should buy some STI components. That's why I bought Capitaland Call Warrants on weakness this morning. SeeHupSeng, a construction stock should move soon and if it doesn't, i shall take my loss gracefully. HSI behave exactly according to my anticipations, it tested the gap resistance now turns support successfully. We are on track for 21,000 levels. The delta of my warrants will be high at at least 80% should it hit 20,900 and that is where it will rocket in value all the way to 21,000. I am going for the jugular! Huat arh!!
What stand between me and HSI will be DJ, C'mon Uncle Sam!!! Just do it! 12,700!!!!! go go go!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
JiuTian @ 1.05
MediaRing @ 0.325
Jasper @ 0.025
Amara @ 0.450
SeeHupSeng @ 0.470
FerroChina @ 1.42
HSI CW
CapLand CWs

Activities:
Bought CapLand CWs

*I did not include my warrants price because i am actively looking for opportunity to adjust my position.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, February 05, 2007

GrowMoney Growth Fund Soared 45%

By a quick count, GrowMoney Growth Fund is up by as much as 45% since inception in July'06. This is slightly better than STI's 37% rise from July'06. When the market tanked May'06, i did not give up on the market for it is largely anticipated corrections and not a bear market. Economies are still sound. I cut my losses short and stood aside looking for signs of bottom and spotted correctly in July'06 low of 2319. At that particular bottom, i was very excited because it was a great chance to pick up strong stock with good FA and thus Cosco was bought at a great value! Greed got to me and I started to trade without my strict stock selection rules and my profits were capped. Then I traded HSI to great success by recording an averaged of 25% ROI in the 10 trades. I too thought I was just lucky to encounter this bull market. "Even the monkeys make money in a bull market" this was a statement I heard often. But it is not true. When someone make money in the market, the other party loses money. Someone will be losing in this bull market. I knew because I once lost a great deal of money in a bull market. To further proof it, from my workshops and talks, there are really people still losing money in this bull market. While I manage to graduate and move from being a loser to a winner, it is nature that someone will eventually take my place as a newbie. This is how market operates.

Trading the stock market is not easy. It is not easy because this is never a level ground to begin with. Do you really think a stock moves up because of it's great fundamentals alone? Did you notice how many times a stock rally before a piece of news is released? Star Cruise is a recent fine example. Why did the stock rally even before the news broke out? Do you think retailers alone are enough to push up a stock price? How many times have we seen a dead stock springs to life only for a day and then lay dead for weeks. Technical analysis to me is just a way to time the market. Stock Selection is a very important consideration too. If the sharks or Financial Instituitions are not going to push it, you can be sure your stocks will not move. Charts could be drawn for all we know. Repeatedly, I observed how the majority of retailers are drawn to penny shares or those laggards or those stocks laying low on the sea bed of the exchange while the really strong ones keep scoring new highs. It is this observation couple up with all my research that made me change my my approach.

Now that I have learnt how to survive in the market, scoring consistent profits is what I am doing now. After this stage, massive profits is what I should be gunning for. There are certain times i am right about the direction and i did not make big money from it. My next steps will be to capitalise on this. I read from many books, the best traders, the legends all made big money in major moves. However my shifu warned me, trading on convictions requires a higher level of emotional discipline. I must be prepared to make such a trade.

I am heavily vested in stocks once again after picking up FerroChina last Friday. The stock gap up swee swee and broke resistance 1.43. I just have to close my eyes and trade base on the gap theory. Hence I won't be buying stocks anytime soon.......HSI is what i'm gunning for... Huat arh!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
JiuTian @ 1.05
MediaRing @ 0.325
Jasper @ 0.025
Amara @ 0.450
SeeHupSeng @ 0.470
FerroChina @ 1.42
HSI CW

Activities:
Bought FerroChina at 1.42 on 2nd Feb

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Bears Gored Alive By Bulls

All set to rumble!!! haha Wah all the bears surely gored apart by the bulls. Fed's comments was so friendly last night!! wah! They actually said inflation is contained!!! wah liew eh!!! Such a different tone from the past! New highs new highs!!! Another bullish sign, did you guys watch the news? A bull was roaming freely at some carpark in Japan! Is this a strong hint that Nikkei is going to rock the roof tomorrow??? hahaha

This has certainly been a volatile week! Instead of a black candle following a "shooting star" kind of formation, we are going to close with a white candle and it's new high once again. 2 weeks to budget day and CNY, don't bet against it... just follow along! :D

My trade on HSI yielded profit. I was tempted to adjust my position thus reduce my risk today. But since market reacted to the Fed minutes very well, the sell off this week could jolly well be a healthy shake out of fats and the bulls may run again. My target of 20,600 level for HSI looks achieveable for now. Hence I decided to go for the jugular! HSI to break 21k before CNY!!! Cheong arh!!!! I want a big fat Chinese New Year!!!! Huat arh!!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.16
JiuTian @ 1.05
MediaRing @ 0.325
Jasper @ 0.025
Amara @ 0.450
SeeHupSeng @ 0.470
HSI CW

GrowMoney QuickPicks
LianBeng
Midas
DBS
Capitaland
Allcoreits
Tiongwoon

Epure's spread today looks so obvious that this stock is cornered! I will stay clear of it. Hence am only tracking Kingboard from yesterday's quickpick list. I am very interested in both DBS and Capitaland....leading sector of the STI....

Chinese New Year Special!



Not my business hor! So don't expect to see me delivering the bak kwa to your place! haha Just an advertising. If you are running a business and would like to make use of my blog, feel free to email me. : )

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.