Sunday, November 30, 2008

Market bottoming in progress?



Once again, market didn't go down further. Bad news didn't manage to flip the market over. The most important thing is higher low stood the test. With the negative DI coming down and positive DI trickling up, i would be anticipating a bullish crossover. The race is on between MAcD centerline crossover and adx bullish crossover. However, it must be noted that indicators are slower. That's why I am keen to observe how the resistance level holds up. Currently 20-day moving average is flattened and may offer some form of resistance. Another keen level is 1916. Bottoming evidences are surfacing through support and declining volume. But plenty of overhead resistances, hence the road to north will not be easy. Every resistance is still a short to me. Because the 20-day MA has flattened, shortists should watch out for a change in trend.

I started a small long position in capitaland with the view that we may visit the resistance level at 3.27. Since the price is far away from normalcy, my view is a rally may happen to return to normalcy. For this trade, i will be using a tight stop as the downside can fall back to 2.30s..

After XPertTrader screening the course strategies, it yields no high probability result. Hence the wait continues. For the benefits of those who don't know what i am talking about, these course rules covered trending stocks as well as swing trading opportunities. Hence it makes trading much simpler.



DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Outlook on STI




Let us begin this week with an outlook on STI. We all know government is coming out with plans to help us during this challenging times. Even the budget day was brought forward to January. Very swift actions. However, it is what happens in the US that counts. We are still going to be heavily influence by the market big boys like HSI, Nikkei and the cursed Dow. Back to the chart, the week ended with a bullish engulfing pattern upon Friday's closing. However there is still nothing much to cheer about on the weekly chart. Resistance level i will be watching is 1916 and the 20-day moving average. So no actions from me till I see how market trades at that level. It is important to see individual stock at their resistances level too. The double bottom on the STI looks to be happening. I like the volume behaviour and all i need is the right wing of the "W". On top of that, alot of stocks has higher low... a good sign.. maybe the relief rally which many have been hoping for is here.

As for Dow, it closed above 8k... however, the rebound last Friday may not indicate the worst is over. The only good thing i observe last week was how Asia market held their ground despite the rout in US. The BB on Dow weekly opened up. The brief rebound may be just relief....maybe a re-test of the breakout of support last week. To invalid this opinion, it must break and stay above 8k.

After my screening on XPertTrader, there were no good short signals for tomorrow. Using XPertTrader is increasingly important. I mean, more than one thousand stocks.... how on earth am i going to know which stock to trade. With those trading rules, it's like opening my eyes to those hidden signals... like rafflesMG, it doesn't appear frequently in the top volume list. But it's sell signal was picked up by TT2(course screening strategy).

After my return from holidays, in my haste(Greed), i made two bad trades. Although the loss is within the 2% risk mgmt, but still i am feeling unhappy. It seems like the pride in me has grown. I began to hate losing. But losing is part and parcel of this game which i am so familiar with. What i am doing now is trying to gain the momentum back. If you are like me, don't dispair. I have walked this path before and i know after many small losses, a big win is waiting in queue. : ) I am going to be agreessive in the coming months and amass my wealth. Day and night, i be looking for money making opportunities. Huat ah!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, November 09, 2008

StraitsAsia broke major low

I'm back! It always feel nice to take a break. This time round i was totally cut off from the market plus my handphone was turned off! :D This retreat is badly needed... This is what i have done, i registered myself and wife to a 3 day motivational seminar first before we head for the holidays. It's highly important for the significant other to understand what we are doing. Trading is unlike other profession. Sometimes we thread by the fine line of sanity. So here i am after 14 days of rest, i'm back. This time i came back with an objective. I think some time ago i blogged about how i lose interest in trading and it was a chore. Basically my short term objectives were met and i have no longer term objectives, or at least i wasn't clear. Now i have set myself new targets! I am going to read aloud my objectives in my study room, paste them infront of my 2 monitors! hooooya! Before i sleep, i will keep repeating my objectives until i drift into my dreams.... morning when i wake up, again i am going to read aloud my objective... i am just gonna be so focus in achieving it!

I like a particular post above regarding whether am i still holding on to my Cosco before i leave for my vacation. Nope, i decided not to lug around my laptop and hence square off all trading positions before i left. For the record, i covered cosco at 0.835 for a small profit. Cosco went as low as 0.760. I didn't cover there. To bull shit in this blog, i could have boasted about still owning it. But nope, that's not me. Whatever u read here are true trades and not fiction. This is me, i see it as an important point to be able to face my losses my mistakes and not care about others opinion of me. Yes i look silly in some of my trades, but who cares, so long i learn from my mistake and not make them again. Like weeks ago, I cut Synear for a small loss and Synear went crashing down next day. If i turn back the clock, i would probably still do the same. This is because the concepts and experience has been internalised. Risk management is top in my priority due to massive losses in the younger years. Hence most decisions made will not be regretted. Of course there are times when i broke my trading rules and those were the times i would starve myself from the fine things in life to compensate the losses in the trading account. It's common sense, how can i spend when i make a loss in the market? I ought to punish myself.

Lai, today's market volume wasn't too great. A quick screen with XPertTrader shows that the heavy sell-off only occurs in some stocks. Many experts are calling a bottom. Well, let us see how the previous low is tested. Fundamentally, i'm still trying to absorb all the news... a bit slow and retarded at the moment...

StraitsAsia is my top study tonight. The way it broke the previous low, oooooh... bad news! However it may be too late to short now... let us wait for a re-test of the support turn resistance.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

News is out, Obama wins, Sell on news?

The market rebound for the sixth day and we are right at resistance. Infact alot of stocks are near resistance. This was the sign i'm looking for to open new short position and thus i chosen Cosco for a start. Actually I am going for a 12-day holiday from Friday onwards and it is to my best interest not to take any more position. However, i hate to miss opportunities as today, the market is at this wonderful pivotal point and the risk reward is good. October was a bad month for global market, however i made substantial profits from the strategic short positions in prop sector. That's why i am risking this profit on Cosco. Even when i'm wrong, the stop loss on Cosco will only cost me a small part of the profits.

I'm still contemplating on whether to lug my laptop along..... it's a holiday afterall.... if i trade, then mana holiday? hahaha At the same time, it looks likely the turning point of the market is near, either long or short.... i may lose the opportunity to long at the next higher lows..... Dilema...


Cosco: Candlestick weakness couple with MA resistance

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.