Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Can the support holds? I hope not!

It wasn't the kind of start i would have liked. STI threatens on the upside and most stocks rallied. To say i was unflustered would be a big lie. I had thought about turning long from here due to the surprising strength. Thoughts about budget day rally, obama rally filled my head... what if i am wrong and today is a key reversal day? I had to calm myself down and focus on my trading plan... that still won't do. I began to visualise my loss if i am wrong. At most i will lose my 2009 profits but if i am right, i will make more than what i had already made in 2009. Wasn't my new year resolution to be more agressive and win big money in 2009? Then why am i so fearful to risk my profits? If i lose them, i will just have to grind the profits back again and then once again look to take bigger risk! With that in mind, i stood up and jio R for an early lunch.

After my lunch, i got more and more confused, why is STI so firm despite a weak Nikkei? Even HSI wasn't moving much. I reminded myself of 2006... that year when because of an election in Singapore, we bucked the trend and afterwards paid back in double the time. Hence so long Nikkei doesn't look good, i'm keeping to my shorts. Boy am i glad to see HSI teasing 13.8k which is my MTL level after lunch. Also, STI majam punchek and we saw huge retracement. I heave a huge sigh of relief! After the 13.8k gave way, i somersaulted my long position in HSI to a short position at around 13,700. By closing, it was a joy to see both my capland and cosco back to day lows. However after i checked my charts after the market closed... the volume is actually nothing to shout about. Worse of all, capitaland actually finished with a graveyard doji, similar to STI. Now i need this doji to fail. Otherwise, i'm back to sq 1. HSI weakness is startling. I wonder why the big weakness. Or is market setting up for a big rally next week?

Now it will be silly of me to submerse myself in joy too soon.... the battle hasn't been won yet. Like Zhou yu said in Red Cliff II, whether i win or lose, it depends on tonight. Zhuge Liang predicted the "Dong" wind... similarly, i need Dow to close below 8.3k or below 8k would be even better by end of the week since econ data is due out. Otherwise Obama to say something negative about the stimulus package is also welcomed. Hence my plan would be to take profits on the way down. If heaven is unkind and decide to punish me for my shorts, i will look see how the week close and where possible may add shorts on the way up if i find the market in selling mode. The pump and sell syndrome looks to be happening recently.

Midas - today's heavy dumping is very uncommon for a stock with such a good base in a bull market. Maybe afterall we are really not in a bull market anymore since it is 2 months since the last October low. Like what GC said, i never make any money when i go long and instead i seem to make whenever i short. Doesn't it means prices are not going up but coming down?

SPH - my pain and regret... i am silly enough to think that being a defensive stock, the downside is limited. My sell signal actually came in at the last Traders club meeting but because it is usually very slow, i choose to ignore it. Never thought this elephant can make at least 10%... 4T%@$%@#%#$

STI - It has a graveyard doji at support... tomorrow if we have a confirmation... my shorts have to be careful already. On the weekly chart, i am still hallucinating a long black candle... keke

If you are looking at FX, this is really a wierd day... even FX major pairs are jumping off the cliff... c'mon, i waited for so long..... let this be one of my memorable year!.....lao arh market! lao arh!

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