Sunday, January 18, 2009

Singapore to tap reserves?

I thought i heard wrongly... did you guys watched the news tonight? Did they really mention about tapping into the national reserves? In recent history, i can only remember the late president Mr Ong Teng Cheong wanted to tap the reserves... if they are thinking to do it now... i think it speaks volume about the current global financial crisis. Even Obama and Bush keep hinting that they cannot wait anymore and need the bail out plan to be approved. How about the recent banks news? They did not fail to beat estimates on the downside... woah~~ As GC would put it, even my Morgan Stanley short could make money... i think the world is really in trouble.

Technically what i see is currently we are at this delicate junction. We have turned down from the 20-weeks moving average in most of the index charts. This is also the reason why i am sticking to my shorts. To me, yes maybe there could be a rebound since the market is over-sold. But what happen afterwards? Most of the folks i talked to are predicting a sell off after CNY. Hence my choices include to "loon" this rebound and then add to shorts. Otherwise, i can run first and look to short when the market turns. Seriously, the greed is getting to me and on some occassions i can't bear to take the profits. I have no problems in taking small losses... however to miss profits... i feel that is one of the most excruciating pain one can ever feel... in hokkien it's called "cake sim"... sleep can be affected and depression may set in.

If we falls further from here, i think we can safely declare that we are going to test the October's low. Look guys, if market is going to close higher in 2009, it can always go down first and then back to 2000 level near Dec'09. How possible it is to keep going higher till Dec'09? Fundamentally, there is no reason to buy now... technically, the stock market hasn't gone through a market base. For those who is interested to know what to look out for in a market bottom, either do a google, or you can search this blog.. i think i wrote about it many years ago.

If you look at Suntec, the sudden selling is a grim reminder that we are in a bear market. It was moving up nicely until the 5-day decline. It is not the only stock that has behaved this way... infact reits counters may be late. I recall since late last year, i notice this pattern of pump and dump in numerous sectors.

US will be taking Mon and Tues off....our market will be at the mercy of HSI and Nikkei. HSI like what i said before has failed at the weekly chart resistance. Delicate... if it can close above the current levels... it can spur another rally. OTherwise, if i am right, then 12.3k akan datang. As for my shorts on capitaland and cosco, i may have to loon the rebound for now... i am getting uncomfortable with the dojis.

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