Thursday, March 26, 2009

Breakouts akan datang

I stuck to my plan today. When Nikkei and HSI broke the resistance which i had determined, i decided it is time to cut my losses on my STI shorts.. i was wrong because the market made no significant pull backs. I cannot simply stubbornly wait for the pull back... market doesn't listen to anyone... instead, i have to respect it and go along with the flow. I cut my STI at 1750 and somersaulted my HSI shorts at about 14,000 points. Is it painful to cut loss? I be lying if i tell you it is not painful and i cut like a robot. Truth be told, i have lost a huge bulk of my profits built thus far from the last plunge. I won't lie to you or try to boast that i am ok and lose little. If i cannot accept my mistake and learn from it, i will never improve. If it's because of my fear of shame that i try to hide, then i will never be successful.

Could i have covered STI yesterday? I would say no. I seriously think it was coming down at the resistance level. Hence when we trade into week high, i know i am in trouble and have to act. As for HSI, i'm betting on a resistance breakout which will act as support. I covered my shorts and turn long at 14k... if market continues the bullishness, 15.8k should be within days. J told me this week alot of banks in hongkong reporting results... ICBC was one of them.. again it's the same story... good start to the year... nan dao the banks turn corner? My friend warned me... it is only operating profit... they have not included write-offs and such.

Another reason to turn long is that i observed market in recent weeks ignored bad news and would rally on the slightest hint of good news. This made shorting very difficult. GDP numbers were out tonight and it was slightly better than expected. Not surprising we are up a little at this point. Simply looking for a reason to be bullish! Anyway, Dow has yet to break 7.8k... hence my HSI longs are not safe as yet.

I screen through the market with XPertTrader.... the top volume rule... wah alot of stocks akan datang at the breakout levels. Such has been the rally of late... so strong until we are back to test December'08 highs. This is where market may fail... tan lui chance is here again.. This time round, i won't be a smart aleck.. I will be looking out for two things... candlestick weakness or high volume black bars in component stocks before i dare short. How about trade breakouts? I will consider if Dow closes bullish and that we don't gap up too much. I will use the resistance turn support concept. But i must not be too agressive too as i already have a HSI long position which is just slightly in profits.

Some of the stocks which i like better are KepCorp, Kepland, Noble, Wilmar. Interestingly, commodities lead us in the Mar'08 rebound... it seems the same story unfolds once again this time round.

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