Sunday, March 01, 2009

No guarantee shortist will make money on Monday

HSI: Ah Seng is smacked right between 13,200 and 12,700. The flattening of the 20 dma suggest that this may be a sideway market. It is getting very uneasy when the market doesn't fall from here. Shortists may be squeezed. But one thing i don't understand is, Nikkei and Dow has broken multi year lows.... why is HSI still hanging on? JiaBao shu shu got more good news?

NOL: The moment everyone is waiting for may be here. I am still holding on to my NOL. Only if 1.30 is traded then i would consider to cut. With Ma as resistance, Stochastics at overbought. The question most of us will be asking is, how low will NOL go? keke Frankly speaking, i hope we can see $1. Coz' then we can all celebrate!

Nikkei's rebound really spoilt my Friday. Remember i shorted it on Thursday because i feel the bad numbers may be coming in on US side and anticipated the week to close weaker. I had wished a follow through in selling on Friday to close the week firmly down. On Thursday night, i could have covered back with 200 pts profits when the overnight session looks to have confirmed my opinion. However, the Asia time zone traded in opposite direction as compared to the night session. It seems to ignore the overnight weakness in Dow. I may have shorted Nikkei far too early.

I added one ST-Eng short on Thursday only to see it close higher. I got squeezed here. The short position was initiated after the price hits into a barrage of resistances....20,50,100 MAs... on the weekly chart, if i am right about this short position, it should not trade above 2.40. Otherwise, that is the level i have to reconsider my shorts.

I'm still holding on to my HSI and UOL shorts. So far i haven't been wrong about the direction of these two charts and hence i shall stick to them. With 5 positions on the short side, i would need a black monday to make good profits. With Dow closing below the 13 yr low, it's not a guarantee that i will see profit on Monday. This has been so for many of the trading sessions so far where we gap down only to close higher. So far, we are like HSI still holding off the 52-week low. Many stocks are threatening to break that level. Will we be able to rebound from that low and not break it? Digging deep into my memory, i do not see us any different from Dow. Usually Dow leads and when there is a de-couple, there is always a big pay back time. The question is, do i want to bet that history will repeat itself? Can Dow rebound from here? If Dow rebounds, then surely STI will be able to hold off this low. But if Dow crash further? Surely the catchup play will be on? How about the Merlion omen? Lightning of all place strikes the head.... Some say it is a bad omen, while some argued not to be superstitious... Or mi tuo foo....

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