Wednesday, March 25, 2009


It is fast becoming a nightmare where the market keeps heading higher and higher.... every resistances drawn; cuts through butter like a hot knife. The type of retracement that i am wary off came true... shallow retracement.. I thought shorting STI is safe due to the slow movement... but over the last two weeks, the volatility is...mind blowing! This is the type of movement most powerful... pull back during intra day or making bery shallow retracement and hug the upper BB tight tight.... not a single resistance holds for long. Like i have mentioned last week, the worst case scenario is being squeezed to 7.8k in Dow and 13.8k in HSI... i am staring at these two levels now... I must say, although i am prepared to see these levels... nevertheless it is still a daunting task to contain my fear. I said then that this is my last chance that the market should turn down... if we burst through these levels... two things i can do... preserve whatever profits i have left in 2009 and run road, take a break.... or, i add another batch of short positions here thus risking all profits and may even hurt capital if we burst through.

Why don't i just cut and run right here and look to long since my view is market may head to those levels. Remember what Livermore said? Ask not where is the market heading but what would you do when the market heads there. I won't know for sure market will get to 7.8k or 13.8k when i was analysing last week.... but i have to plan what i want to do when market gets there and this is exactly what i am doing now.

If this is a bullish rally, i expect a normal retracement to occur, and that is where i can go long agressively. Why agressive? Because to me, it may be one of the rare opportunity to latch on early in this bull. I think we may see only 2 or 3 such opportunities from now to May... I am not 100% sure this will happen... but going by my experience, the pull back will be quick and fast as well... that is where i can look to cover my shorts... Lose small i can laugh secretly liao...

For those who care about poor Dec, no worries... lose money no lose confidence! So many years liao, this little setback i no put inside the eye. (不放在眼里) I have been through worst. Last time in this kind of market, that time was tua lao sai during the bull run... i was stuck in about 3 or4 positions... that one is really pain pain.. each stock at least drop 15%... wah! .. i cut everything and start afresh... this happen a number of times in my trading so far and each time i can still win after that... that's why my confidence never falters..

The main difference between that time as compared to now is, i know how to make back the money and more... that time still young and raw... read a few books and think i am Livermore number 2. wahahahaha

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