Sunday, September 09, 2007

Bracing for the onslaught

Looking at the chart of STI, if we close lower than 3400s, it will be ugly. Technically it means we have some more downside. Many would expect STI to test the last low 2960. Personally, if fibo 38.2% holds at 3300, effectively we still have higher low. And should STI turns up from there, good sign. Anyhow, there is currently no catalyst for STI to be bullish. I favour working out a nice chart base and then we challenge 3700 by November.

All along, i favour another leg down to ascertain the selling pressure and hence I didn't actively load up stocks to avoid risk but only 1 which is Adv Hldg. Tomorrow I will scrutinise the tape closely. I did for a moment feel like a fool watching the market rebound strongly and yet I did not profit much. Greed. Technically, it is risky to load up and hence staying out is my best option. Had I sucummb to greed, tonight i would be a very worried man as i will be badly exposed to the possible downside facing us tomorrow.

Ai zai, recently, i notice STI recently divert from the DJ movement. Should HSI remains firm, we should survive like the 300 brave men from spartans. Higher low higher low! *chant*


While I anticipated the employment data to be poor, my take on the market direction was wrong. I had anticpated due to the poor data, market may like the idea that it can induce Fed to cut interest rate and that we should at least close flat or up. Instead, we went down big time. This will impact Monday's opening for Asia market. While it is expected to fall, my eyes were on the possible support levels to justify an uptrend intact. Also, why would the job data post any surprise to the market? From the subprime fall out, it is already in the known alot of people are losing jobs. Why did market plunge despite knowing such an obvious data? Market taking that as an excuse to sell? Wouldn't this latest data induce Fed to cut rate? What happens if they refuse to cut rate? What happens if they cut. Technically, i saw something unpleasant. 13,300s level turns from support to resistance. 13k must hold, otherwise it will trigger more technical selling.



HSI hits uptrend resistance line and looks ready to pull back with RSI hitting similar resistance. There were 2 gaps and I think the second one closer to 22,400s will likely be a support if any as the gap support confluence with fibo 38.2%.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.