Monday, September 14, 2009
One step at a time
HSI on Daily, Bearish divergence warning and the MTL level on the daily chart. As we are very close to the resistance, i initiated a short position. Some of you may remember i had a short position. Truth be told, in last week's rally to test the 21k resistance, i had covered my short position with a loss. In hindsight, i should have hold. But last week's follow through buying had me fooled into thinking the market may be back to it's rotational best. How naive i was. I no care, both on weekly and daily shout weakness to me and i shall trade accordingly. Once it plunges all those losses will look small.
HSI on the weekly: In what looks like a rising wedge we are seeing a bearish divergence which is a perfect setup for a sell-off. The best part is it should be happening in the next few days. Otherwise it may be invalidated. With the on-going tariffs fight between US and China, all we need is a crazy policy by either side to be the catalyst.
STI: Mount. 2700 looks strong for now. Being resisted 2 times and if we include the end Aug black candle it would be nearly 3 times. Though range bound, i don't like the shooting star with heavy volume on the 10th Sept. It is a warning i must heed. With today's gap down, we may head up to close the gap and after which i may watch if the 20-MA line holds... over the last two occassions, there were whipsaws on this line thus render it's effectiveness as a support useless. I am looking at the 50-day MA for now or otherwise the horizontal low at 2522. Best is to see CS reversal at these two locations or otherwise i remain cautious.
By now we know why the wheels are locked and the wings are tied in the property sector.... the pending announcement already anticipated.. How tricky can this market gets? It's confirmed, it will be more difficult to get a loan to buy private property. Ironically, all the DBSS projects are priced so high... how can a combined income of 8k manage that mortgage? Mana logic? Anyway NS trained me to shout my mouth when it comes to policies.. Like they say the word official has got two mouths. During the sell-off today, i had thrown my Wilmar, DBS, Olam and SC-global picked up last week. I went on a buying spree using the follow through buying as a clue.. however the engine died at the old resistance and i was alarmed by the big volume. As such i had gotten these stocks near their highs, the only sensible thing to do is to get the hell out first and reassess the situation. 4 positions is akind to hoot tua tua.. it didn't workout. Run while the losses is still small.
The heavy volume sell-0ff in property stocks might present a good opportunity. Alot of them are trading near to their 20-day MA line. Break that and we may see more downside. Furthermore there are many bearish divergences around... but i won't short as yet. I had been wrong last week and according to my rules, i should go slow. I am happy if my HSI short makes me some money.... sekidat sekidat jadi bukit... this bukit will comprise of profits for me to risk as well as confidence. Actually it isn't my confidence shaken.. i just feel irritating to not been able to read the market correctly. My focus is not on how much i will make or loss for now, rather, it is important for me to get back the rythem...
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