1 more try to scale Mt 2400

Nikkei led this superb rally today.. the usually weak Nikkei has the audacity to test 10,000 points. HSI and STI both are now closer to the previous high..18,900 and 2400 respectively. If we can close the week above these levels.. bullish! Even Dow is very close to 9k...

I favour two sectors - Properties and Commodities as they shown great volume behaviour over the last 2 days. Especially for today where the whole market moves up a gear in anticipation of a rally! Yeah... it's in the air... we can all smell it. Only Dow stands in the way between a nightmare and a sweet dream.

I have a whole long list of signals. Signalling that this may be the next wave upwards. This time really must maximise the opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls got slaughtered

This deep deep pull back caught everyone by surprise. I had high hopes of seeing Financials take the lead to clear 2400... it's all but vanished as the bears mercilessly sold down the market. Is this the start of another bear leg? I doubt so... technically we had moved too high too fast.. it's only natural to pull back for consolidation. Especially property sector.

Now it is time to watch how market trades at support... the next chance to long or short is very very near.... just a few more days and we will be staring at key support levels. My eyes will be on which sector to turn the corner first! Or which sector to lead the downfall?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Financials and Commodities to pull ahead?

2400 remains a stubborn resistance for STI. It looked as if we are going to turn ugly from here but the market remains resilient. From my sector analysis performance chart, it looked like Financials and Commodities may be leading the next charge at 2400.

Props and the rest remains weak for now. Offshore looks kinda of flat for now. We can understand why, a quick glimpse at the charts and you can see that they are not moving in unison for now. Everyone is surprised to see Cosco lagging.... Kepcorp has a customer bankrupted, SembMar mysteriously came down. Maybe a consolidation is good for this sector.



I was flipping my archives today and found this >>> http://growmoney.blogspot.com/2007/01/growmoney-growth-fund-swings-into.html .... the day i broke even. : ) Whenever i read this... it reminds me to be humble and stick my foot firmly on the ground. Especially the part on wedding... a wedding delayed... haha what was i thinking back then!

C, this is dedicated to you... i hope you know my drift...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

GrowMoney Sector Analysis

As you can see, while the rest of the sectors were pulling back, Financials are still strong. It was the last one to turn up. The last updated on my indices shows that many have pointed lower. The next thing of interest is which sector will be the first to turn up. I will update again on the sector of interest.

For now, my screening shows that we have a pretty decent day where the support still stands. This is something which i had wanted to see. The average volume for leading stocks are not high on this retracement day. I went long again on financial with a single position this time since in the afternoon we rebounded off the lows. I had actually wanted to be agressive with another position on HSI. However, surely when the index is near the stubborn 2.4k, it is not time to be agressive yet.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls got slayed in the final hours

The morning began with a quick peek at how Dow closes.. A mere 19 points up and Nikkei was flat.. i heaved a huge sigh of relief as i am wary of bearish confirmation today since there were many ugly candles yesterday. The day erupted into a rally throughout the day and financial and property led strongly. However, just like yesterday, the day ends like a fart. I view the afternoon selloff as a bearish sign with many stocks unable to break higher. HSI is the one that dragged us... a shooting star now lingers on the daily chart. I was away for a meeting.... otherwise i would have shorted HSI near closing... keke *Horse Back Canon" Another point that i considered was Dow had closed right on the 200DMA resistance last night. Usually, if it wants to clear resistance, it will just burst through.... Lastly, Nikkei after market, its futures retraced badly.. very ugly.. With the odds stacked against me... i think keep the profits better. I missed a bulk of the property rally... to be able to still latch on to banks and offshore, i think i shouldn't be tum sin. F puts it very well.... market will take the money back from you if you don't keep it properly. Furthermore, technically, profit targets already met.

I closed all my long positions today. Just do not feel comfortable with the afternoon sell off. Picture this, morning we float higher then we hit by heavy selling in the afternoon. It's a textbook warning. Futhermore, it will be very stupid of me to leave good profits on the table. Now that the profits is safe and warm in my pocket... psychologically, i feel so much better.. i think tonight i can sleep like a baby liao. I just checked, for the month of May i made abt 10% of trading account. So far only March i lost. Rest of the months are profitable... if i can maintain at a modest average of just 5% per month for the rest of the year, by December my account should be up 75% for the year 2009. Working hard towards it! The only fear i have is self sabotaging. Many times when i am up by more than 20%, i end up taking unneccessary risk and lose a substantial amount back to the stock market. This is a flaw in my trading i must be fully aware of. If i can stop losing money, i will make more money. Loon ah! Cannot be impatient ah! That's why i avoided shorting today. It is technically still an uptrend... uptrend i should buy low sell high.

Meanwhile, i am looking to buy back if thursday is resilient. The plus sign i saw from my screening showing it may be a natural retracement in a intra-week pull back. If support holds on Thursday, we may close higher on Friday. Once again, Thursday will be key to me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls over-shadowed

The market turned soft after lunch along with the big gap down by HSI. Being long on two stocks, i would have loved to see another bullish day. Unfortunately market decides to pull back. Although it is normal for market to pull back after the strong rally on Monday, but while screening the whole market, i found alot of bearish candles lying around.. those with high upper shadows.. Some even formed bearish engulfing pattern. Even STI closed rather weak off the 2400 gate. Where is the bull strength it exhibits weeks ago?

Property sector exhibits extreme weakness. After leading STI to clear the 2280 level, they showed great selling interest. What if last rally was due to window dressing? Usually they will undress, is the market experiencing undressing? If weakness continues tomorrow, i will watch those key support levels closely. Lets cross our fingers that this is just an intra-week pull back.

Financial stocks? Though STI broke through 2280 successfully, this sector has been rather mixed and muted.. most of them has yet to break their previous high. I wonder isit possible for the market to crash sharply while we no see banks break those highs? nan dao... it's a chance to....

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Financials to lead next wave?

On the last trading day of the week, finally i see some glimpse of hope from the financial sector. If market is to move in a rotation fashion, then surely it will be their turn to rock the market while properties take a rest? The powerful rally of the property sector reminded me of 2005 where Mr Mah announce a bullish news for the developer... something like they make it easier to buy private properties... then all hell breaks lose for the property sector. Perhaps some news is leaking out already? Anyway, since i don't belong to the privileged, i need to work harder.

Currently, the divergence on Dow is very pronounced. As such, i am not adding positions as yet. The last time i ignored a divergence, orh bak kak... keke those sudden crash type of market... the pain still lingers inside me... the fear is almost bone crushing.. 8.6k is where i set my sights on...

After doing my random walk in the stock market through XPertTrader, generally i have 2 feels. Firstly, there are strong closing on some index stocks, especially those properties... then i saw many ugly closing with long upper shadows that comes with high volume... this is an unwelcome sight. It smells of bear. To me, financials and offshore should lead the next wave. Otherwise, i am turning cautious.

I believe if Nikkei ignores North Korea again, HSI plays catchup then we will have a wonderful rally tomorrow. Otherwise that stupid curly hair kwai lan kia may spoil this party.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Interest rotated back in Properties sector

The sign i was waiting for has appeared. That is the breaking of previous high in the property sector. It doesn't matter whether isit the banks or the props or the offshore. One of them ought to lead. Now that the props have moved, I set my sights on the below:

a. They must continue to go up, or at least no candlestick weakness. I view it extremely bearish if this breakout come back down on heavy volume.
b. Banks, offshore to be the next. Tech sector? I wouldn't bet on them as yet.
c. Offshore services like swiber, federal, swissco...etc.. should also be on the watchlist.
d. Commodities, i think put one side first..
e. My friend reminded me that the settlement for index May futures is coming up...hence index may be volatile.. acid test is what happens after that.


Super test my patience... it is trading nicely along the 20-dma.. When will it's turn come? Semb Mar, YZJ, Kepcorp still running... Unless, cancellation of contracts again??? Or major shareholder selling? But like Genting, if want to sell, should be selling above 1.40 ma, bo li you sell at 1.20???


Singtel: Though slow, but may see $3 soon?


SGX: Doesn't it look just like Cosco? Maybe banks and financials to power STI towards 2400? :P


Genting: Stock market never changed because human never change. - quoted by my ang mo teacher. This kind of scenario happened like so many many many times in my young career as a trader. Say young also not very young...anymore.. now i beginning to see younger faces at seminars... haha i used to be the youngest.. not anymore. :D But if insiders want to sell, surely they will sell at high high price and thus, the share price ought to go higher first. How can they do this? Read the book by Livermore... he was approached to do this for a professional fee... How dirty this market is.... this is a warning for those who are new to the stock market.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Offshore laggards

Nothing to shout about at Friday's closing. Especially how Dow gave way in the final hour. On the hourly chart, i can see lower high already formed. However i may discount that because it's a public holiday on Monday for US market and thus not trading. Hence traders may opt to square off positions to enjoy the long weekend.

If you look at Cosco, SembMar and Yang Zhi Jiang, you can't help wonder why is this sector not moving? KepCorp already moved off May's low but not the laggards. Either these 3 stocks will be the darling of the market in upcoming sessions or this sector may not be the best for me to get vested.

Other sectors like banking and props seems to be consolidating. It may still be early days to latch onto these sectors.

I will turn cautious and wary of further corrections if stocks test and fail at the previous high in this coming week. I have observed last week that the market seems to be drifting higher and then got sold down quickly. The only positive i take away from it is, there is resiliency in this market... aka refuse to die.

Elder puts it very well, a market can fall on its own weight. Let us see how the market trades on Monday.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Watching those highs

The retracement i was looking for appeared and it was in the strongest of fashion. Most of the stocks are rebounding off their 38.2% Fibo level. I learnt that this level is most useful in very strong price movement. Bingo! 3 weeks ago the rally is considered strong.... with that 38.2% supported... hence it may suggest that this rally can continue.

My plan was to sapu stock at the retracement and watch if we breaks previous high as an indication of strength. I checked around, there are many stocks breaking their previous highs. Something that is positive in my opinion. Next to observe would be if there are bearish divergences around. There are still many stocks which i can go long technically. But i always prefered to trade high liquidity stock. Like UOB-KayHian has a buy signal, but due to the low volume, i will still give it a miss. Following sectors is one big advantage i learnt along the years. To make big or small money depends on the position sizing.

I been monitoring the leading sectors like an eagle. Banks and props seems to be hesistating...i need them to break the previous high convincingly otherwise, i remain cautious. This is because one of the scenarios i painted is one by one the sectors trade and fail at resistance, then the market may fall. Otherwise if the former sectors starts to break new highs, then this bull has got legs.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A normal Bull market retracement?

Finally we closed the week in the black. Many had asked why wasn't the blog updated. The truth is, i was keeping to my plan: to wait for the retracement to complete and i shall try long. May is coming to an end...The notion of sell in May, go away lingers on my mind. Anyhow, to me, the current upward trend is still intact. Many had said this is a bear market rally... it has ended. I for 1 will not be worried about that, to me, so long market is in a trend, that is where i can make easy money. Since my indicators are telling me uptrend, i shall continue to look to buy. The timing is crucial and as of now, the market hasn't turned. I checked the global indices, the leading sectors and stocks... we ain't going down as yet. For assurance, it will be good if we have a powerful rally to take out the previous high. Otherwise deja vu.

Let us be clear, what can be the catalyst for a selldown or resume of bear market? Bank's stress test reveals that only 74B need to be raised... this is peanuts as compared to how much they have prepared or printed. GM and Chrysler to go bankrupt? Market already warmed to this fact. More job losses? Yes it is expected from the automobile industry. Last week's retail spending was disappointing, the last GDP result was worse off than expected however market shrugged it off as it doesn't reflect going forward. Even many big firm results came in better than estimates, signalling it's not that bad afterall. Magic word... seems like market is full of optimism with regards to the recovery. As such, if there is no sudden bankrupt of any big names or big spike down in econ numbers, this upward trend may edge forward cautiously.

From my homework, it pays to watch next week closely. If we see heavy dumping, i would turn short. Otherwise if volume continues to contract and then a big volume day comes along, time to long?


STI: My eyes caught the bullish crossovers of the short term MAs and the longer term MAs. This is bullish. I eye 2095 as possible immediate support for STI, otherwise, 2026 to 1960 is where a more comfortable support zone is. Ideally, we trade sideways and meet the 20-day MA.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Focussing on the next move

I'm sure i am not alone... many would have taken profit and miss a bulk of this rally. I was sad.... to see the price flew off after taking profit... wah... fly a bit nevermind, not when i only capture 8% gain out of 40%? It took me 2 days to get over it. For the record, i didn't chase the rally. Past experiences of pain told me to act sensibly. A couple of things, I didn't make my money at the beginning of the last bull cycle. I made my money during the upward trend, and the recent bear market. Hence i know, miss this round, no problem! There is always the next trade. The most important thing is that i must know what to observe before i put on my next trade. It's actually bery simple... the first pull back, i will not short, rather, i will find the low and go long. Now after i long, i will be looking to see if we can break previous high, if we fail to do so, we would have a lower high.. from there, i will run my longs, then turn short... i will add more shorts, if we break the previous low. If we dun form a lower high, then it will be safe for me to add more longs and continue to trade on the upward trend. All these will be done with the help of a few indicators and candlestick patterns.

I think even fund managers will take profit around here or slightly higher. Such good profits, why would they leave it on the table? They are the experts, surely they will take profits and register the half year gains in their report? keke It's where the retracement holds that's key for many traders now.

Today STI retraces, i observed from my screening that nothing bearish as yet.. it could still go either way. Continue to observe.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Results from Tradersclub

Dearest all,

I just want to share some of the key homework done by the exclusive traders club over Saturday's ChartNexus TradeFEST. More impressive, this analysis is not done by me... it's done by the graduates... at traders club, they practise what they have learnt. Trainers are there to make sure the analysis is correct... Mastery comes from doing. As the lead trainer for the day, i added my experience in their analysis, especially on when to long or short and what works and what doesn't...

HSI:
Resistance at 15.9k
Support at 13.9k
Now that Resistance at 15.9k is broken, we look to 17.3k to 17.6k to offer as resistance.
RSI consistently above 50% tell us that the current uptrend is intact. Also there is a turn in MacD from 4r1g.

If HSI has candlestick reversal patterns near the said resistance, and the same weakness can be observed from the other indices, then it will be a good chance to short. Otherwise we track the 20-day ma, if global indices broke that in unison, it is a good short.

DJI:
Although on the weekly charts we saw 3 hanging men candlestick pattern, but there is no bearish confirmation candle. We observed that the current uptrend broke the 61.8% Fibo resistance, which means technically the previous downtrend has been compromised.
Resistance at 8.3k
Support is at 7.8k

Trading strategy will be the same as HSI. We need the global indices to show the same weakness before we short.

STI:
Support at 1781
Resistance 1960 but broken today already and we are currently trading right at the 200 day moving average as resistance. This is a formidable resistance because it confluence with the falling window. Next target is 2220 if we clear the resistance offered at 200 day moving average.

Now that it has broken the 6-month high, Please be patient to wait for the pull back before attempting to long. I rather miss the rally than being caught buying too high. Money is lost when we buy at the "high"... this can be very painful. Also dun be overly bullish until you miss "20th May 2008" where 3 stars aligned

KepCorp:

There is a hanging man on the weekly. It will be bearish if we close this week lower and form a black candle confirmation on the weekly chart.

200-day MA is where resistance is but we broken today. To trade Kepcorp, watch the following:
1. High volume black candle
2. 20-day moving average broken along with other stocks in the same sector or accross the market.
3.If hanging man confirmed on the weekly chart.

Ascendas Reits:

Support is at 1.32; resistance at 1.50. 4g1r on the macd may signify pull back is over. Currently supported at 38.2% fibo support which confluence with 100-day moving average. The lead trainer of the day shared a very important message here: He questioned why AscendasReits is not going up despite other reits moving significantly higher. He never likes laggard and warns members to focus on those that are moving instead. Indeed, at today's closing, AscendasReits closed mixed... below par... as compared to other reits. No wonder the trainer is so likeable... keke

CityDev:

Resistance at 7.30 which is today's closing. We short only if we see high volume pull back and trigger CT1. Or if we break 20-day moving average in unison across the same sector. To long, you may deploy 38.2% fibo as support or you patiently wait for the next tt1 or 4r1g signal.

The tall and slim trainer also suggest that, when you want to trade one stock, remember to check the same stocks in the same sector for confirmation.

I know market has been crazily bullish... patience my friends...


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Properties in the spot light

Yesterday I saw many properties dived following Nikkei's weak closing and i thought that was it, the first sign of bear in the market. However most of them managed to close near opening.... and today, alot of them appeared in my screening. This sector is surely worth a second look for a couple of reasons:

1. The 20-day MA holds.
2. There are heavy volume in today's trading accompanied with reversal patterns.

It must however has follow through buying... otherwise, could be another trap.

Infact many of the component stocks showed sign of resuming the uptrend. If this is so, the last low should hold as we progress to test the previous high. Next week is May already... and tomorrow is the last trading day. I have got only 2 options: either i go long and hope the bear give me 1 more week to enjoy profit to the upside... or i wait patiently and short at the first pull back or bearish sign in May. Even the swine flu going around doesn't affect as much as feared.


Crapland: Rebound off 50% Fibo. with good volume. Shortists squaring off escalated the buying?



DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

The week ahead

It would have been easier if the week close lower as i anticipated, but it did not. Most indices close slightly lower leaving a lower shadow. Thus i have to re-examine my trading plans...


STI: STI seems to be holding well near the 1840s to 1850s level. The bearish divergence may have been neutralised. Time to go long? I checked across the sectors, majam mostly are trading at base forming a support. I have seen many times how a base is formed and then we see the subsequent market rally fizzles out and caught many at the high. The only safe way is when i see sectors rotating again. What I am seeing now is stocks forming base.... the key word is forming, thus, until it is completed, then i feel safe to long. In a base, we have to watch volume too... it must be those of good base.. otherwise, may not be strong. Once i see good base, i shall kai seow here.


HSI: Is this a double bottom? 15.8k is where the axel stands... If HSI breaks this level, it may trigger a double bottom breakout. Otherwise, we can always wait for a pull back to re-test as support. Here i would like to share a story.... there was once when HSI broke 21k back in 2007, each day, i tell myself not to risk it and wait for pull back... guess what, the significant pull back never happened, it went all the way to 34k! :D hahaha You can imagine how green my face was.... it was once in a blue moon that markets move like this... alas on the hindsight, we now know, it was the last burst before the bear market descend upon us. Thus, once 15.8k broke, to wait or not to wait for the retest?


DJI: I saw the 3 hanging men.. bearish candlesticks on the weekly chart serves as a warning to me if i ever consider to go long at this stage. I have to be selective and cautious. I certainly do not want to be caught long when the market turn suddenly. Especially since the treacherous May is coming up. Currently most of the earnings beat estimates.... market ignored the fact that outlook is still dull... perhaps this is why many reports said the worst may be over. No short for me yet until the market starts to turn down. Because i see Dow may still have limited upside... but is it worth the risk for limited upside? Perhaps it's wiser to wait for the limited upside to complete and join in the selling?


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Friday to close lower?

So sorry to have disappeared for days. I was busy preparing for the upcoming TraderFest for our graduates. Other than the usual stock pickings and analysis, we are going to reinforce those trading principles and concepts in this one day event. It should be quite a spectacular event... 100 participants with laptops! Hope we don't trip the whole suntec.. haha

The last sector which showed strength has pulled back, the commodities. The rest of the stocks are resting near the support levels. Ta pi the gap down on Tuesday is still fresh on everyone's mine. The neutralisation of bearish divergence may have taken place by the sharp sell down and gap down. It is now of interest to watch if market will resume the uptrend. If it does, one of the sector should be leading it, and if so, my money will be on the next sector!

On the other hand, we have been up for almost 6 weeks? time to pull back? The odds is thus stacked heavily on a lower closing on Friday. Hmm.. how to make full use of this opinion leh...


Crapland: First target should be $2.40 there abouts. Like many charts, we pulled back to near 20-day ma.. I will be watching how this M.A holds. The idea is for a weak Thursday and then a sell down on Friday to pichar the line.


As per other commodity related stock, noble looks weak. I especially keen on how it trades on the 200-MA. Noble fans, be it to short or long, don't miss it! :D If commodities continue to fall, i have to look at the other sector and watch which one is going to move off from a solid base of consolidation. This is a typical bull market action. If that is not found, we may see broadbase sell-off.


ChinaFish: The two shooting star caught my eye. However this is one of the better performing China Stock. This one maybe can go long at next higher low. I wait to see if the two stars will pull the fish deep sea.


Nikkei: I have plotted the above possible levels if Nikkei is to fall by Friday. I will be observing how it trades the 20-day moving average


STI: It is hanging precauriously at the support.. if we break convincingly by Friday, i am afraid we may see more selling in upcoming sessions. Or best case scenario is the bearish divergence is in effect, and after this, we form a higher low. I think we can use 4r1g to time the entry here.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Dow struggles upwards

Dow struggles to close positive again. I noticed that despite coming in with better than expected earnings report, market hasn't taken too kindly to it. It didn't rally as much as i hope to see. Still a ding dong at the recent high. Maybe the market isn't stupid afterall. It is plain obvious that the change in accounting rule in reporting may have helped the banks in their latest results. Notably, most of them reported they made money in their investment arm. I still got to watch how the market trades Morgan Stanley. The profit over there is not guarantee as yet since my position is still open. The hottest topic for now is the stress test results of the 19 biggest banks in US to be released in May... seems like they are thinking of the best way to release so that it doesn't shock the market like what Lehman and AIG did. I also notice how Obama is preparing the market to see GM or Chrysler go bankrupt by pre-determining the dateline where Obama will bankrupt them. Looks like they are determined to keep market afloat. In chinese we have this saying, "Paper cannot cover fire"...

As for Singapore market, the bearish divergence coupled with late selling is a warning sign. Even micro-pennies party seems to have come to an end. Two ways the bear divergences can be excorcist: Market trades sideways with volume thinning. Or we have a quick sharp down and then resume the uptrend.

After taking profits from STI and Nikkei, i'm left with MS to take profit. My plan is to take profit on this before the results is out. It became clear to me that those companies who has reported results cannot cheong further.


STI: The bear divergence and the blue catchment area. One of the idea i am toying is to short at resistance since the bear divergence is so obvious. Cosco, Hi-P and UOL will be on my hitlist. One guru was wrote in his book, if an obvious T.A setup doesn't happen, it means it will go the opposite side.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Meteor showers

It sure looks like a key reversal day as we saw the market finished with alot of candlestick weakness. Property sector was especially under tremendous selling pressure today. Looking at my screening results, it was weakness across the board. Looks like the textbook signs are happening.... micro pennies rally would usually mean the end of the ah gu. All the bearish divergences look even more scary with these factors in mind: We are at the high. Today we closed with high volume and with candlestick weakness.


HSI: Failed at the resistance today. I didn't short here because i do not have the profit to risk here. We all know that HSI is a wild horse.. hence for my risk apetite now, i can only continue to observe and grind the profits to make the next trade on HSI!

Going forward it will be tricky... the last few weeks whenever we had weakness, almost all shortists were caught butt naked by the sudden return of buyers storming into the market. That's why i also no dare to anyhow short. Is it a reversal, is it a retracement... this is the top question in everyone's mind. For me, retracement would mean we see a higher low. Reversal is where the 20MA is broken and this is where i may turn short. However, right now, it is broadbased weakness. I couldn't see my favourite setup where one sector is obviously weak and thus i am not comfortable in shorting as yet. For now, i am happy to just grind the profits... they are returning slowly.... but surely.

I may have lost a substantial amount of my 2009 profits. But that doesn't mean i trade agressive now in a revenge mode. Rather, my recent trade size and frequency have been reduced. I am more selective and not taking uneccessary risk. This is how i trade. Build up the profits before i trade agressive. It makes sense... if i am successful in building up the profits, it also means i am winning in my trading... this means that i have gotten the direction right! If all these small trades are unable to generate profits, it means i haven't got the market feel back... then surely it is suicidal to trade agressive. Thus once the profits is built up, when i trade agressively, the odds is with me and not against me. So long, no profits, i trade small.

I must explain the recent trades on raffles edu and wilmar are still based on the 2% risk management i been faithfully following. After the MArch debacle, the 2% risk is lower and thus position size is also lower. With the small profits taken from these 2 positions, the 2% risk increases and the position size increases and thus the profits will be more. If my opinion of us closing higher on Friday is wrong, then the profits in Wilmar and Raffles Edu will be lost. The key thing is, never allow your capital to take a big hit. Trading is a business, it is a marathon...not a short sprint.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A race to break 200 MA

Day to day i have been faithfully screening the market to sniff out what is going on... i saw big good volume rotating from sector to sector. Also i am seeing volume tapering off in alot of stocks while the price struggles higher... my friend put it very well.. it looks like many retailers kia buay bo... meaning scare not enough shares for them to buy! haha

Banks - This is where DBS flash the first warning sign... OCBC climbing on thin volume and technically it won't last. UOB's bearish divergence is so obvious that i think only the blind would miss it. Now my choice is, do i still believe in this rally and going for the next higher low to long? Or should i turn short and bet that, all this bullishness is rubbish? Actually my heart favour the latter. But better to wait for technical confirmation. Right now, the banking sector has been reporting good result over in US... WFC and GS both reported better than expected result. GS even want to return the TARP money... i think they don't want their fat bonuses to be affected... keke I am still long on MS... it should be reporting result soon... but i'm betting JP Morgan and CITI result will spur another rally.

I received ChartNexus signals for Noble and Wilmar.. this came after i noticed they have not been moving higher unlike indoagri and golden... Olam? It is now very near to resistance... unlike DBS which i saw heavy selling at resistance something i consider technically weak, Olam's volume may just lead to a natural retracement. A reminder to myself... this sector lead the rebound last March as well.

Property still looking very strong... despite warning in the Sunday Times, seems like the sentiment is getting the better of investors. I shall exercise patience here for retracement. It's very easy to be tempted for a quickie... but i shall ignore.. 路边的野花不要采。


RafflesEdu: The sexy shoulder i cannot resist... I like the volume and the strength showed on the indicators. I went long here.

I am still waiting for HSI... the intra-day weakness never came because China announces possible stimulus plan once again. It will be interesting to see how 15.7k trades.

A bad retail sales number came in and look at Dow?? Shaking off bad news again... Let's see tomorrow's closing ... best is up above 8.1k! Burn those bears!!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Dow: Financials rotated back in favour

Wells Fargo (WFC) better than expected profit for Q1 elevated the market. Couple that with less than expected weekly job loss, Dow managed to close higher than 8k. This is despite many expected Dow to close lower due to the long weekend. As you may know, i have been keeping a keen eye on financial stocks. It's not hard to read through my recordings to find out how often i have written down that it seems that financial stocks are holding well at support while Dow pulls back. This is evidence to me that a normal bull market sector rotation may be in play. The tricky part however is that we are seeing broadbased rally and the opportunity to go long on a good risk to reward is rare. It happens so fast and quick that if you miss a day, it doesn't make sense to chase. 4 sectors are all i am eyeing for good liquidity... financials, properties, offshores and commodities.

On the last trading day, we saw how financial stocks pushed Dow higher. It may be too late to act on our local bourse for now as we have closed significantly higher on last thursday. I also observed that those resources stocks closed signficantly higher after a normal retracement. Indo agri, golden agri and Straits Asia all moved higher... however Noble and Wilmar on the contary nothing to shout about. I don't like it when the big brothers of the sector don't lead.

As for our banks... UOB seems to be the worse performer of the 3. Remember, the resistance is key here, if all 3 failed at resistance and the market seems to come to a stall... i will initiate my first batch of short.



HSI: Though there's a bearish divergence on MacD, I don't wish to short as yet. Clearly, we may head to 15.8k... i think any pull back maybe a chance to long. If the move is sharp and abrupt, 38.2% may work well. If you notice, most of the stocks are rebounding off this level. I have been to Borders at least on two occassions over the last week... i was hunting for a good Elliot wave book. I read something that makes a great sense to me... in a sharp market movement, most support levels may be too far away... traders eager to get onboard may find any form of support to be an excuse to go long. 38.2% thus works well in this kind of scenario.


Currently i have a long position in MS (NYSE). It swung in and out of profits during the last week. However it swings, it didn't failed the support level. This is confirmed accross the sector where goldman, BOA, Wells Fargo...etc.. exhibits similar pattern. With Wells Fargo good results, this stock may throw me a lifeline i so much needed. Tuesday and Friday is more important... this is where Goldman and Citi reports their earnings.

Along the way, there has been tempting opportunities highlighted from the ChartNexus forum discussions, traders club meetings and from our trainers conversations. However I cannot take new positions until i get one trade right. All i wanted is to get my confidence and momentum back. I need to grind the 20% ROI before i can try to hoot tua tua. This is how i trade... when i don't have a profitable position, i shall not take any more position... this is to avoid 5 wrong trades at the same time which can dent a big hole in my trading account. The logic is simple, if the one trade cannot make money, it simply means my reading of the market is wrong. Hence, why am i putting up so many positions? Waiting to be BBQ?


If Wilmar falls below 3.13... technically a small double top!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.