Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Friday to close lower?

So sorry to have disappeared for days. I was busy preparing for the upcoming TraderFest for our graduates. Other than the usual stock pickings and analysis, we are going to reinforce those trading principles and concepts in this one day event. It should be quite a spectacular event... 100 participants with laptops! Hope we don't trip the whole suntec.. haha

The last sector which showed strength has pulled back, the commodities. The rest of the stocks are resting near the support levels. Ta pi the gap down on Tuesday is still fresh on everyone's mine. The neutralisation of bearish divergence may have taken place by the sharp sell down and gap down. It is now of interest to watch if market will resume the uptrend. If it does, one of the sector should be leading it, and if so, my money will be on the next sector!

On the other hand, we have been up for almost 6 weeks? time to pull back? The odds is thus stacked heavily on a lower closing on Friday. Hmm.. how to make full use of this opinion leh...

Crapland: First target should be $2.40 there abouts. Like many charts, we pulled back to near 20-day ma.. I will be watching how this M.A holds. The idea is for a weak Thursday and then a sell down on Friday to pichar the line.

As per other commodity related stock, noble looks weak. I especially keen on how it trades on the 200-MA. Noble fans, be it to short or long, don't miss it! :D If commodities continue to fall, i have to look at the other sector and watch which one is going to move off from a solid base of consolidation. This is a typical bull market action. If that is not found, we may see broadbase sell-off.

ChinaFish: The two shooting star caught my eye. However this is one of the better performing China Stock. This one maybe can go long at next higher low. I wait to see if the two stars will pull the fish deep sea.

Nikkei: I have plotted the above possible levels if Nikkei is to fall by Friday. I will be observing how it trades the 20-day moving average

STI: It is hanging precauriously at the support.. if we break convincingly by Friday, i am afraid we may see more selling in upcoming sessions. Or best case scenario is the bearish divergence is in effect, and after this, we form a higher low. I think we can use 4r1g to time the entry here.

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