Sunday, June 26, 2005

US tanked for second consecutive sessions, are we seeing red soon?

As we enter the month of July, Dow and Nasdaq has downed again for the second session this week. More downside next week? But what we really need to know is, how it will affect our market. No reversal signal found on ST index chart but on the Stochastics, we are entering the overbought region. It must however be noted that in a continuous uptrend, the chart can be in the overbought region for a great deal of time. So the best way to make use of this information is to watch for any reversal candlesticks formation. Looking at both STI and Sesdaq chart, I saw lower shadows which is bullish in it's nature. Our market still refuse to bulge under poor GDP expectations or high oil price? Over the year, I have been stupid enough to trade during poor economy expectations. I am just not fast enough to take profit and run. So this time round I shall sit and watch how to do it via paper trade!

Here's a progressive charting of the 4 counters I was following last week.
  1. Singpost: Not only did the black candle not formed after the shooting star, it pushed to a higher high. On the weekly, it's 2 consecutive white candle. This one i must say worth to invest.
  2. Macquaire: it gained 2 cents on a volume of 3 mil versus the big drop previously with 9 mil. I wouldn't classify this as a reversal. Am still going to stand aside and be a "kiasu" Singaporean.
  3. DataCraft: Despite opening lower, it manage to end the session with a gain. Bullish sentiment. A long hammer formed on the weekly chart. Trading rule is that the support will be at the bottom of this hammer, which is 1.04 . With a reverse H&S forming on the daily chart, a hammer on the weekly chart, I would go for the juggler!
  4. Still no clear trading signal from technical point of view, but it must be noted that the current high oil price will have an impact on this company. Watch on.

You want to know what is "Bang Balls"? Just take a look at my picks 2 weeks ago, Semb Marine. I already detected something brewing with my formula, but I choose to trade Macquaire because it is cheaper. What happened? Semb Marine is laughing at me from a height of 2.55! No wonder people say not all cheap things are good... haha

Here's the list for this week's action:

  1. Noble: dragon fly formed on weekly chart. However we need a white candle to confirm the reversal. Support at 1.40. Current price is 1.45. I would expect to see retracement for this fella.
  2. MFS: With nasdaq going southwards, couple that up with a shooting star on the weekly, a short for this fella.
  3. ChinaPetro Tech: Interesting fella with hammer formed on the weekly chart with a spike in volume. The support at 0.400 has been intact for 6 months. A quickie trade! But it is pretty illiquid.

I paid for my losses in Macquaire and Sunpower today. Terrible feeling. So much so, I was thinking to quit again. But if I quit, I will never get my money back from Mr Market again. So here i am again, ever optimistic, studying potential opportunities and paper trade.

I remembered I was advised to start paper trade before I actually place my first order. Despite reading from books and having so many seniors advising me on that, I placed my first order within 2 weeks. Greed. Staring at my accumulated losses, I could have travelled to Europe next year to catch World Cup 2006. So if you are a rookie starting out like me, please do paper trade before you become the next regretful soul. The only reason that i'm still in this game is my good money discipline. I don't allow myself to chalk up huge losses months after months. I would stop when I hit my monthly trading limit I imposed on myself.