Tuesday, August 09, 2005

High Oil vs PM Lee

Oil touched new high amid fears of supply concerns. Did the market already knew? Or will the market react tomorrow? Looking abroad, our region's bourses are not having a great day. Looked like a mixed day of trading. I shall not decide my actions based on my anticipation right now. Let's see how our market react tomorrow. Then I will follow the trend.

PM Lee has said he expect better GDP for 2005 after recent strong showings. He also added that the next 5 years will be better than the last 5 years. Wow! Such confidence. I wonder will it motivate the market sentiment and test new highs again.

Which way will market follow? PM Lee? High Oil?

I spent a great deal of time in reorganising my watch lists according to sector. Now I will only be looking at these counters closely. No more wild goose chasing and certainly no more look good penny stocks.

Warrents. The talk of the town. Aunties and Uncles has whacked warrants in the recent rally. Warrents are a good way to trade blue chips or expensive counters. But I wonder if Aunties and Uncles know it is for trading and not investing? I hope the brokers are ethical enough to remind them incase they decided to invest in warrent.

If you read this far, I'm going to reward you. :D Please take a look at SPH and Noble warrents. They look promising. Their mother shares are threatening a breakout. When mother share breakout, i'm sure you know what the babies will do right? *wink*

And once again, I hope you guys check out the advertisements for great trading strategies or ideas. Some even has free charts.


Starhub, a star buy!


SPH - Breakout


Semb Marine


Noble, surprise of the last 2 sessions


Capital Land - Temasek pared it's holdings...

Sunday, August 07, 2005

Different Types Of Analysis

Charts:


Ho Bee



STI chart


Sembawang Marine


Keppel T T

Over the weekend, I had read a book titled, "Trade Like Jesse Livermore" by Richard Smitten. For those who don't know, he is one of the greatest legend of all time in the business of speculation. I can't help but realised after reading so many books, some of the most basic concepts are mentioned in each one of them. Stop Loss, Psychology, Money Management and follow the major trend are the most obvious repeating topics in all the books i come across. My question is, am I (or you) following it? For me, I did not. It is stupid of me to read and yet not follow over the past year. I went through all my past trades and realised my trading strategy is doomed to fail. Just as what Innocent Bystander pointed out. I have picked up a new strategy from this legend, that is, only buy the market leaders. As over the long period, they are the most profitable. Think about Cosco, Semb Marine, NOL....they are the leaders of the Marine sector when it was hot last year. The next sector in my opinion will be property. But does market think the same as me? "Never buy on anticipation", said Livermore. I will buy when market show me confirmation of my opinion. How many times have we seen a penny stock rallies and only to see it back to where you bought it after a few months. Or how many times have you seen a penny stock rise all the way to close above $2? I have never seen that. But I do see expensive stocks becoming more expensive in a shorter time. Hyflux, NOL, Cosco....some of the stocks i ignored to persue penny stocks which did not show so much growth.

I noticed a danger signal as depicted by Mr Livermore very similar to the candlesticks analysis's shooting star. A sign both the western and eastern world pay alot of attention to.
It was also mentioned that there are 3 stages of the market. Uptrend, Sideways, Downtrend. To Livermore, this is the cycle. While many savvy trader trades the trading range during sideways, to him, it was not where his most profitable trades were made. I can envision what his trading strategy was. A leader in the industry group breakout, he will use his probing method to enter the trade. If the leader turns ard, he will cut his position rightaway, suffering the minimum loss. He did this because he was wrong in his timing. A trade was made after lots of studies in identifying the trend and the market cycle in what he called the top down analysis. So the probablity of being wrong is low. When a leader industry group leads the market, it won't be a short time. Thus if he got it right, the ride up is very lucrative. But he warns of complacency where a trader got it right, sit on rich paper profit and ignore a danger sign. There are more to the book then i can possibly share here. I will try my best to share a bit every other day. Meanwhile, I will be scouting for leaders!

Have you ever stepped out of the box and look from the outside? Well, a trader friend of mine did months ago and came out with the lists of different type of analysis.

Fundamental Analysis: Humans who believed that the good financial results of the companywill be rewarded by the incline of it's share price.

Technical Analysis: Humans who believed that the chart patterns are re-occuring because it represent human emotions in trading. Greed, hope, despair, ignorance.....these have appeared way back in 19th century and it will always be the same.

Luck Analysis: Humans who believe that their luck is high at the moment and goes into market for the big kill. They mistook bull rally as their own personal luck. Usually this group of people will be killed by bear markets.

Hope Anaylsis: Humans who buy their shares and then hope that it will go up. Without cut loss, this group of people will see their investing capital up in smoke.

Astrology Analysis: Humans who believed that the planet movement will affect the force of market. This is made popular by the legends in Romance of 3 Kingdoms.

If you don't believe and laugh it off, take a look at the forums and observe. It is hard facts that human psychologies never changes. Even legends will be greedy once in a while. The above is shared to allow you to view urself as a trader. If you fall under hope & luck analysis, please reassess your psychology approach to the market.

Thursday, August 04, 2005

HGM Dumped.....Decipher Reborned!

Let me share with you. I made a very brave decision today. It is my biggest loss to date. I finally let go of this emotional baggage. HGM has been cut by me. I bought at 0.540 and sold at 0.460. The relationship begins in Nov'04 whenHGM gave me my first biggest win. Now it had taken it away from me and more. Is it painful to cut? yes. But it's the sensible and right thing to do. I have grew numb of looking at the loss everyday anyway. It created a negative feeling and hinder my trading prowess. I have been ridiculed at and look silly talking about investing when I am sitting on a loss with HGM. I was losing because i sat on paper loss. Now, I have lost. The difference is, after a lost, it's a lost and you move on from here. Losing? It means you will still be losing (Imagine falling into a bottomless pit) until you cut.

People have ridiculed me as someone who stupidly lose on the market. I feel otherwise, everytime i lose i learnt something new and fine tuned my system. The past does not equals to the future! I have talked so much about legends who don't sit on losses, they cut when they are wrong. How stop loss is very important to trading. And then? I still hold on to HGM?? What a contradiction! Now my portfolio contains only profits and I will keep it this way. In the future, any trade that i take, if i'm wrong, I will cut! No more hoping. Decipher Reborned!

Ok time to talk about the market. Retracement day! Tomorrow is a Friday, i don't see any motivation for buyers to step in. I sense market toppish....shrinking volume, upper shadows after a run of 6 rally days. Is this a breather? Is this the retracement? Economic front wise, nothing negative is reported, we are still expecting a good 2H GDP! Watch your profit closely. If market absorb the selling well, not much volume on a down day, then I would think the rally ain't done yet!


Ho Bee: Is it really a Hay Bee or a prawn?
The volume of this new high is lower than when it first test the resistance. Could be a false breakout.


Full Apex


DC - Trading Range play.

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Deflated once again.

Confidence was sky high when i picked 2 stocks correctly back to back. However I came crashing back to planet earth when Rotary triggered my stop loss with a hefty volume. I decided to just cut and f**k it. No more hoping and mis leading myself that it will rebound. Winners do not babysit on paper losses. They cut when their analysis goes wrong. i'm left with HoBee. This one is far far away from my buy price. Will my stop loss again be triggered?

I had an interesting chat with "Innocent By stander" in the chat window on top. I thought it was more than coincidence that the way he described his strategy which is very similar to what i am going to do.

1) Follow general market sentiment and trend
2) Study the market leaders and leading sector closely
3) Using Chart to find best entry and exit.

I think i can manage number (3) and fairly good enough for (1) but i am a bit clueless about (2). I closed my eyes and travel back in time over the last 15 mths....counters such as Semb Marine, Cosco, Keppel Corp and SPC comes to my head first. A quick check.....yes...they are really the top leaders over the last 1 year. Or am i wrong? People! Inorder to grow rich together, we must find the correct sector and the correct leading stocks. Please contribute if you know ok?

As for the general market today. It stormed upwards most part of the day only to close lower in the afternoon on profit taking. Most of the people are still jittery about retracements. I think oil also played a part. It is now about US$62. Hmm....if only Steel prices move up again. :)



Rotary: Cut Loss activated


Keppel TT for quickie


Notice the long bar on the big lot sell down? That's what made me cut


Full Apex


Ho Bee....don't become Hay Bee pls!

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Raging Bull hit Singapore

As bullish as it can get dudes, we are getting good quater-end results, June's manufacuring index beats expectations, property rules relaxed and now, PMI and employment indicator are reported up! The recent market actions can be observed as intra day selling and strong buying up to closing. Tech sector once again has been reported to be seeing better days with orders increasing from both local and overseas. So that makes it 3 interesting sector to look at, Oil, gas and energy sector, Marine sector and Tech sector.

Many in the forum had warned that our market had moved too fast too furious. They are worried about a retracement. Being a rookie, i am not sure how badly and when the retrace will come and whether this bull run will continue. Using my limited T.A and my past research, this uptrend has been with volume and good fundamental news. So it's not a fake bull. Also, the sell during intra day and buy up at closing is a sign found in bullish market. Even our best friend in trade US has been booming over the past weeks. Looking at regional markets, everywhere is rallying. Nett, I don't think it will end so soon, so sudden. Comments?

Here's a quick look at the charts.



The late buying up in volume pushed up the closing to 0.495 from an intraday low of 0.480









Ho Bee: Outbreak! A quick check on it's fundamentals, it delivered a good FY 04, with property rules relaxed, I think this should be worth a bet.








HG-Metal: News of securing a distributor rights from Ferror China for S.E.A seems to demonstrate the ability of management at HG-Metal. Chartwise, Asymetrical Triangle is forming.
I have no doubts about the need for steel in an improving economy. But share price seems to suggest otherwise.




Ho Bee: Late buying in big lots seen. I followed the big money and got vested. We will see tomorrow if the move upwards continues.







Rotary, are you going to test and break 0.520? Fundamentals wise, i found it sound. Nothing fishy.

Monday, August 01, 2005

Property Index Defies Gravity!

As the crowd were worrying about a possible retracement by our property counters, they simply rock the roof off by giving investors yet another brilliant showing! This is definitely the hot sector now to get into. As my pocket is smaller, i opted to look at a potential outbreak named Ho Bee. You can view it's chart below. Yes, such dizzying height will cause a great painful fall for those who chase high. Do you agree with the statement? I used to think so and would not chase. But why not ride the trend with strict cut loss? To go with the flow or wait for the next round, you decide. I was reading "Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders Of All Time and found that all these legends buy stocks that are moving. They bet on trend and cut if they are wrong. Something from today onwards that i will try to emulate. : ) They also have this bird eye view on the general market sentiment. Something that is similar to what i'm writting everynight. I try my best to put together where the market is heading. Given my limited economy sense, i need to brush up more!

News of Saudi King's Death has caused a spike in oil price. So far no changes to the oil policy was announced. But the threat of high oil price has once again threaten the stock market world wide. So far our market has been rather resilent to external news. It's still moving upwards to celebrate the nation's 40 yrs old birthday. We call it National Day Rally. Oh, of course the talk of Elections is on everyone's lips. Incase you don't know, there is also such a thing call election rally.

Looking at sectorial plays, I think property sector and oil, gas and energy sector will remain the leaders of our market. If you have any other thoughts, please share with all. Thanks in advance! Looking at the bigger picture and following the major sector can be very profitable!

I'm celebrating 2 months of non stop blogging today. Throughout this 2 months, i had learnt alot. I jumped from forums to friendsters inorder to boost the visitors to this site. I wanted to build a community of traders to share comments and ideas here to ultimately learn from each other. Looking at the daily average of 270 visitors per day now, i am very grateful to you for making this interaction corner possible.*take a bow* As from the technical learning aspect, I saw my worst mistakes right infront of my eyes......ill-disciplined cut loss and non stop hoping. I had found my invisible wall to growing money. I hope you had found yours. As my blog is getting more and more interest, my friend whom saw this site grew, got interested in what we are doing. He asked where he should get started. I think I advised him correctly, he has to choose between the role of investor or trader. Of course, we chosen the latter, a tough role that requires pure hardwork, commitment and passion. Trading is not suitable for everyone. Sacrifices has to be made.

Incase you are interested, I have sold out my Suntec Reits. Check out my reasons by clicking on the charts. All my researching shows that great legends never sit on losses. They only sit on profits.

Finally, if you like what I wrote, please check out my advertisements. Some of the great things I learnt are by following the links there. Do not think it's just pure products selling. Some links are like my site, providing free information for the busy and signing up free newsletter.



TAC: I don't see any trend, perhaps i'm not good enough. But i thought the declining volume in today's up looks uncomfortable. Could be box range trading.

I sold SunTec


Rotary: Selling seems to have dried up.

Property sector index


Ho Bee: the cheaper property choice for small pocket.

Thursday, July 28, 2005

Bulls take charge!

After so many days of mixed market, bulls lead the way convincingly with 307 winners against 192 losers with a heavy volume of 1213.1M shares! The 2500 mark is now a reality more than a dream! Nationaly Day is coming. This could be the best gift to the nation for her birthday! hahaha So far my T.A is working well again. All the support line stood. Is this luck mistaken for brilliance in a bullish market? Or have I matured? Time will tell. I'm just glad that i managed to realise my trading system has been too defensive in a bullish market. Remember, you must have an arsenal of trading system for different market condition.
I shall share more of the trading plan definition tomorrow as it is simply too late in the night now for me to write properly! ha! Ok cut the crap! haha Let's check out the charts I have prepared painstakingly. Please check out the advertisements if you enjoy my charts hor. Thanks!
Rotary
Mai ka lim pei retrace hor!*hokkien* :D
(You better dun retrance tomorrow)

Sarin
People's Food
Noble
MMI
Labroy Marine
Jaya Holdings
ASL Marine

Stats Chip

Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Market roared alive! Focus on Rotary

Our market continued to edge higher. Such is the buying interest. It sets up a perfect stage for tomorrow's Mapple Reits IPO! It's a much talk about Reits and I'm so tempted to punt abit. However, a quick trip back to memory reminded me of a very true quote. "If you want to punt, go to a casino, where the returns are higher and faster. What for punt in the stock market with a lesser odds of winning and poor ROI for a quickie(quickie means quick trade)." Nope, I shall not punt tomorrow!
What is a trading system? I have talked so much about it but what exactly isit? If you think it means indicators or trendlines, WRONG! These are tools you use based on your trading system. So what exactly is a trading system? They are rules. Rules that are tailored for the trader you are, tailored to suit your personality. Personality as in your risk appetite, your money management rules, when would you buy and when would you sell. I have my own set of rules that formed my trading system. I will share it over the weekend for your reference. These rules are my lessons learnt over the year. So what is a trading plan? Tell you more tomorrow. hahaha!
Now for stock picking time! : )
All the breakout yesterday did not rocket off. All suffered retracements. What could be wrong? Fundamentally something underlying could be changing. Trade with care. Know ur stop loss and you will be fine.
Noble
Rotary! New found! Delicious! Don't forget the fact that this is a oil, energy and gas play!

UTAC

MMI Holdings

Labroy Marine

BeautyChina
ASL Marine

Tuesday, July 26, 2005

East Meets West & The Satay Stick Analysis

As i stumble onto my desk to prepare for homework, i can't help but feel stupid sticking to my trading system. It's not that it is not working. But i missed out too many opportunities while waiting for the Gem to pop out of the system. Suddenly, my eyes caught sight of a book.....The CandleStick Course by Steve Nison. Shit! Why didn't i think of that! I should employ another trading system that will allow me to trade short term. So while waiting for my Gem to be discovered, I can practise charting with Candlesticks combined with Stochastics. It worked damn well for me back in Nov'04. I remembered collecting $1.7k in that month alone trading! How the heck did I forget this trading system? In Trading, there is no 1 size fit all trading solution. Trading is an art, market is a dense forest. You need an arsenal of systems and indicators to survive!

In his book, Steve has said to combined eastern candlestick analysis with western indicators for a more complete analysis. As for me, I devised my own "Satay Stick Analysis". hahaha :D I used Candlesticks + Stochastics + MacD Histogram(weekly chart) to pin point buying signal for short term trading.
MMI Holdings
Labroy Marine
Beauty China
ASL Marine
I feel stupid looking at how my discarded Gems like CSE Global, Jaya, Raffles Edu bounced back today. I think I am being too narrow minded in trading. I neglected market sentiment and tweaked my GEM discovering trading system too much. From now on I shan't change something that is working.
Market was boosted by the June Industry output. It beats analysts forecast of 3.1% by registering a fastest rate of 11.1%. Drugs leads the way. It was also mentioned that 2Q GDP could be lifted because of this. This time ho say liao....with property boom going to happen at the same time.....what can I say? Let's Rock'N Roll STI & Sesdaq!!!!!


UTAC

Please pay attention to UTAC. It seems like tech has really bottomed out....So many tech companies gives better results. A sign of orders picking up. Tech stocks can be volatile. So be nimble! As for me, i'm waiting for a clear signal from T.A to enter! :D The results were good but surprisingly there was no buy on rumours and then sell on news. Worth a punt tomorrow!


Monday, July 25, 2005

Muted market

Market closed mixed today. Bears lead Bulls marginally. Those china counters thought to be benefiting the Yuan revaluation gained. However from the sidelines, it seems like market looks confused, not convincing in moving up or down. Full Apex, a chart request yesterday, gained +0.015. According to T.A, this fella is in uptrend.



People's Food: It was mentioned in the forum alot today. T.A wise, a buy with tight stop loss. I would advise caution with this one as China had news of farmers dying with a mysterious virus after slaughtering pigs. If it is confirmed, then this fella might head south.







Jurong Tech: The recent heavy selldown has eroded away my profit in this counter. It sets me pondering. How should I avoid this? I refered to my trading book and remembered this "As soon as the price move away from daily average, the rule of thumb is to protect 50% of paper profit"..... Another lesson learnt. I'm lucky i can learn this from paper profit. If I had used cash. The lesson will be learnt with a price.






Raffles Education: Another trend reversed in Decipher Gems list. Dumped out of my list.











Rotary: Trading chance! Weekly trend seems to head up and this is inline with the gas and oil play reported after a rebound in oil price. Click the chart to see cut loss and buy.








SMT: A turn in the weekly trend was spotted. Trend reversed. Vested at 0.715, now cut at 0.740. A 0.025 profit.













From all my paper trading in a bid to test my trading system, I have received harsh comments that paper trading is useless as emotions are not involved. Emotions normally hinder our thinking process. I agree with that. However, it must be noted that paper trading gives you a chance to fine tune your trading system or method against good or bad market condition. It sort of get you ready to do cash trading. Why do we have fire drill evacuation? It is to allow you to know what to do when you hear the fire alarm. Now think about trading, when a sell or buy signal is generated, from all the practises via paper trading you will know what to do.
Things i learnt so far:
1) 50% profit protection
2) Buy only when the Weekly Histogram is below Zero line. In Decipher Gems, only ST-Eng is picked from below zero. The rest were medium risk decision where the histogram was above zero. Rational being, when it is under zero, it has more upside. If you have doubts, just look at the above charts posted, you will realised that right from the bottom of these reversals, the profit is much higher! Check out my blog daily. Whenever I find such GEMS, I will share with you! Although sometimes I do feel left out in rallies, but I tell myself not to be bothered as chasing rallies can result in very painful lessons.

Tomorrow Suntec Reits Results, watch out for it!

People, I had added a Fundamental link on the left. Look out for it. It contains my research on investing stocks based on Fundamental Reasons. Decipher not only knows T.A, I am learning F.A too. I think the our CPF needs to be invested in good fundamental stocks rather than just earning the miserable interest by CPF. hehe

Sunday, July 24, 2005

STI at dizzying height; Sesdaq catching up!

What a week for STI closing at 2319.34, a 5 years high! Next target would be the all time high of 2500 barrier. Can it do it? It's jittery trading at this level because retracement is at the back of my head. I certainly has no wish to buy high and sell low. Questions I asked myself were, what caused the STI to storm? GDP for 2005 isn't going to be fantastic. High oil price threatens economy as what Greenspan had said. Recent rush of aderaline is due to bank and property stocks. They were sent flying by Govt's relaxing of property policies. Being a market rookie, i had no previous experience of withnessing the impact of such policy change. Although it will be positive, but I thought it's premature to think that property will rocket off just like STI. Singaporeans still have to think about the higher interest rates should they go for 90% loan. They still have to worry about job security. Income today doesn't equates to income in the coming years. Looking at the jump in car sales due to the availability of 10 yrs car loan and $0 downpayment, it seems that Singaporeans prefer to let the "live it up" mood gets the better of their financial judgement. I saw what were cars being towed away due to defaultments. My final guess is, yeah, we should see property flourish soon! Time to look at property stocks because the mass are believing. I better don't fight against it. As for sesdaq, it looks like our penny counters had reversed their fortunes! Good for small pockets like me. : )


Decipher Gems: suffer a setback when Jaya Holdings and CSE faced some serious sell down. However overall it's still a +0.30 gain. Jaya Holdings, Rotary and CSE will be taken out of the list as their weekly trend have turned down.




UniFiber:
I sold unifiber on Friday. It's a really stupid decision on my part because I did not follow my rules. I decided to cut loss after it dipped to 0.385 on intraday trading but it closed at 0.390. On the chart it's not a sell signal. The previous day closing was down 1 cent and it affected me a great deal. I have commited this mistake hell lot of times. If unifiber cheong this coming week, i'm going to bang balls!





Junma: Due to the revaluation of the Yuan, this china play could be the next to move up. It's supply rubber for car tires. If it can import materials to make tire cheaper, it's margin will improve. I'm not sure how true and am not very familiar with it's business. But it pays to pay attention to this. Chartwise it has been lying low for sometime now. Just keep it in the watch list and not a Decipher Gem due to it's lack of market interest. Just found out, Junma's business is in china only. Yuan evaluation can only be helpful if they import raw materials. So they can have a more comfortable margin potentially if they import their materials from overseas.



Full Apex as requested.











As for my comments on HGM,
What is the business risk of HGM? Demand of Steel and Steel prices. Falling steel price is thought to be due to supply over demand. Steel production will slow down to curb the current situation, thus causing the price to stablise. After that steel price will go up! Because the demand is still strong. Construction is happening everywhere. Marine sector is still flourishing. They need steel plates for ship repair. New Oil Rig orders fills the news every week. All these are build on steel and not plastic or rubber. So i conclude Demand for steel is still strong while price of steel will stay stable. HGM's earnings will continue to stay strong as long as demand of steel is there. Wait for me dudes, i'm going to study the last steel cycle and see the similarities and differences. After that, i will share again.
As for the share price, it lacks market interest. I suppose HGM is seen as a small stockist out there.
By the way, i'm IT analyst hor, not economy analyst! hehehe so any expert please comment. Thanks!

My comments for Suntec Reits:
I suppose Suntec Reits is poised to take full advantage for it's office rental business when office space starts to get expensive in Singapore. It was reported that office space in Singapore is still considered at it's low. So chances of upside is unlimited. With it's close proximity to the 2009 Casino and the MRT to be built right next to it, this fella should be worthwhile to collect. Recent share price volatility should not be of much concerned if you plan to hold it long term say 5 to 10 yrs. Let's not forget about the properties it acquired recently. Once office rental hots up, Suntec will be mentioned time and again.

I hope market gurus out there can comment and teach me a thing or two if i am wrong in my analysis. Thanks in advance!

Thursday, July 21, 2005

Descendents of Dragon has unpegged

China's revaluation of the yuan hit the internet news late Thursday evening. How will it affect businesses in China? Let's draw an analogy.
If i am an importer when my currency is higher, i will import cheaper
If i am an exporter when my currency is higher, my customer will pay more thus i have to squeeze my margin to compete.
So, do know what China counters you are buying. Decide whether they export or import. Tomorrow will be an interesting show.

HGM surprised me and my fellow trader friends with it's white candle today. The volume is quite heavy at 4 million. Let's revisit the double bottom chart i posted last week.
http://growmoney.blogspot.com/2005/07/hgm-double-bottom-formed-or-am-i.html
From T.A point of view, some form of reversal is in the making, given the poor sentiment towards high steel prices, never thought it actually came true. I hope this reversal can test the all time high for the third time!

As for the general market, mixed day of trading yet again. Profit taking sets in for property counters after their amazing run up for the past 2 days.

Much to my dismay, Unifiber closed down at 0.390 today! Very very disappointed. I was anticipating to collect profits, never thought that i would need to study the cut loss level today. What to do, such is luck. Why didn't i buy Jurong Tech? Hi-pi or St-Eng? Of so many gems, i had to choose unifiber? Something that refuse to move? Give me a break! Confidence sometimes need a bit of luck to make one feel better!

3 gems looks set to be delisted from my Decipher Gems list. Check out the charts. No new gem spotted by my trading system today.

Why is a bullish market mixed?

STI rallied again yesterday with focus on banking and property stocks again. Market is still taking the news positively. Late afternoon profit taking was seen. However I observed that winners and losers are still quite mixed. Oil price has slipped under US$57 per barrel, US market continue to head north with Nasdaq at a 4 yr high. Regional markets are all running bullishly. My question is, why is our market not convincing? Anyone can advise me? I am feeling really uncomfortable seeing 50-50 situation in the losers and gainers stats. A bullish market to me was thought to be gainers leading losers at least at a ratio of 2:1.

With STI reaching 3 yr high, overbought sentiment sets in. Retracement ought to come in sooner or later. Those buyers who chased high price last week are suffering now. From what I see, only property and blue chips are moving. Penny stocks are quite quiet. Lesson revisited! Never chase high price.

Decipher Gems suffered with Rotary and Jaya holdings falling the most. This sets up a question in me about profit taking. Although the counters weekly trend is still up, do i wait till most of my profits turn into air and exit only at the turn of the weekly trend? Maybe I should protect 50% of paper profit? Which means to say, when a counter retrace back 50% of my paper profits, i sell and keep my money. Worth a thought.

Unifiber still elusive...it's been 6 trading sessions of consolidating. I thought yesterday's heavy buy up was a sign to come. However, it never did. Patience...it's so demanding emotionally. I think cases like unifiber can replace fishing as an activity man, you keep waiting for it to break upwards just like you are to wait for a fish to get caught in your hook! hahaha! Patience.

No new Gem was found in my system yesterday.

Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Property Boom!

After being depressed for so long, govt has changed some policy to make it easier to buy a property with less cash. Although it will mean paying less cash for owning a flat or property, it also means longer and more expensive bank loans. I see it as the same for COE. When COE is cheap, 10 yrs loan was permitable, whole lot of Singaporean took it up, 10 yrs loan knowing they pay higher interest. So I guess property market will boom! Singaporeans plus foreigners will storm our market! So will it cause ripple effect to the rest of the counters? Perhaps, construction sector? Or even best, HGM who can supply metal to build property. hehehe

Just like terrorist attacks which can drag the stock market down. This kind of good news is also beyond T.A or F.A. But I wonder for the person who typed the statement for our minister to read out, did he or she secretly buy? :P

The market was pretty mixed although the STI rallys to new high again. Winners beat gainers only just. And the STI high is mainly contributed by property stocks. Profit taking was in place in other counters that had made some gains in recent sessions. I suspect the bulls are resting...bears were powerless amidst good news from corporate earnings and market. Many had forgotten about high oil price. I bet that for the next down move, analyst will attribute it to profit taking and high oil price. They look for excuses for the movement after it happened. But it's their job, to analyse why the market moved. hehe That's why they are called analyst and not prophets.

Decipher Gems took part in the rally yesterday and most of them continue their upwards move. I'm still stuck in Unifiber. It refused to move upwards. The weekly trend is still up, and yesterday's drop has caused the daily chart indicator to fall below zero line. It's a sign to up my stakes as it points to a move towards north. Let's see if it can happen. Cheong arh!!!!

Today's spotlight no doubt will be in property. Will there be more upside? Even Casino announcement didn't have so much impact than the news yesterday.

Monday, July 18, 2005

Bulls losing steam

Another mixed day of trading today with losers slightly ahead of the gainers. Are the bulls losing steam? Ready to turn down? Or are they simply resting?

Vol 720.6 M Val 760.0 M
Rise 206 Fall 230

June's non oil export fall short of analyst's estimates and affected trading sentiment. Many of the counters that had moved up sharply had taken a U-turn. This is the reason why I shouldn't chase after high price. Retracements are bound to happen as it's human to take profit when it soar high enough. Question is, will there be continuing buying? Oil, Gas and energy plays are reported to have more upside.

Decipher Gems, the more i see unifiber, the more impatient i got. It's been consolidating for a long time now. On the charts, an Ascending Triangle could form. This will result in an upside breakout of price. As for CSE, it has touched my cut loss at 0.790. But it's thin volume today caused no alarm. Only if it goes below my cut loss then I will consider it as turned sour. It's weekly trend is still upwards. I'm waiting for Jurong Tech and ST-Eng to retrace further, their weekly uptrend are intact, however i need to see more retracement before the risk/reward gets good enough for a punt at the babies (warrents)! The rest of the gems are still having weekly uptrend.

No new gem found in my trading system today. This could be testiment that my system would not be conned by a fake bull! :D

A watch out for tomorrow:
Minister of National Development Mah Bow Tan will announce policy changes affecting the property market at 3.00 p.m. Singapore time (0700 GMT) Tuesday.

Sunday, July 17, 2005

Worries unfounded?

Analysts had warned of global economy slowdown in 2005. Being an amateur in the financial market and not to mention my trading losses, I grew scared about puting my money in the market. I thought bear market coming. STI flying high and following a report that this year will be range bound at 2100 to 2200 begining of the year, I tried to trade cautiously passing up lots of opportunities. Look what had happened this months? Strong sets of Economic data keep flowing into the market pushing the index higher. I learnt to take analysts' words with a pinch of salt. We must do our own analysis. Have you seen "kelong" reports? Where prices move up alot before the positive report is released into the market? I leave it to you to figure this one out less that I get sued. keke

Vol 979.8M ; Val 887.0M
Rise 202 ; Fall 272

Our market closed mixed on Friday amidst profit taking. It is the second day in a row where gainers and losers are trading closely. Looking back, the market has moved up alot to where it is today and infact has touched a new high in 3 yrs last week with heavy volume. Don't be surprised by any retracement. Oil price hit highs again. But our market continues to ignore it. The target of US$80 per barrel has factored in the price? My mistake was to predict what will happen, now i simply follow the trend.

Flashback! Allow me to "hao lian" (proud) abit.....I said to stay clear people's food in my old post...look! it came true! keke
http://photos1.blogger.com/img/288/6339/640/ppfood1.jpg

Decipher Gems! Tiong Woon has been removed from my list because of illiquidity. Unifiber continues to be a mystery to me. Last few sessions suggesting consolidation in progress. This is my only cash trade among my Gems...doing well in this trade will certainly boost my confidence. Anonymous has correctly said that one of the reasons my Gems is performing well due to current bullish market sentiment. I agree. Hence I spent sometime scrolling back to June where I first blog seriously. I had no gems back then althought market is moving already. I even started a chart request on the left to kill boredom. I think my trading system filter counters that are in uptrends only. If you click on my picture, you will be able to read about my trading system. So if it's a bearish market, i'm sure my trading system will not pick up any "lobangs" (opportunities). However we can always open a SBL account and go short instead! hehe

I'm trying to get a site search to work on my blog so that we can search for old postings on counter's charts that has been posted. You can scroll all the way down to try.

Golden Peanut - What Singaporeans are talking about!


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Friday, July 15, 2005

CPF Investment Choice

From my small polling done at SI forum, here's the list of most prefered stock for CPF invesment!

SPH
ST-Eng
NOL
SGX
SIA
Singpost
SPC

Not in order of preference! :lol: