Sunday, August 21, 2005

Post National Day Rally

After watching the National Day Rally, I took away with me some hints and clues about our next 5 years. No wonder PM Lee was rosy about the next 5 years will be better than the last, he has a whole Remake Singapore plans. From the presentation slides, some parts of Singapore will undergo major facelift. Orchard, Marina and even our heartland. He used TPY as an example of how the oldest estate in Singapore has been rejuvenated. Also, the government will be helping low income family to own flats through CPF grants. Couple all these up with the expected annoucement of IRs in Q3 and the relaxation of policy on home loans, i am bullish about the property sector. More upside to come? I have made an anticipation and will react if market agrees with me. I still have to factor in high oil price which will drag sentiment a little. Not to mention how Hang Seng's profit taking affected our market on Thursday.

After scanning my watchlist, I found nothing exciting to chart. Hence I have tried my hands on STI. You can check the chart for my analysis. I have noticed how our market had opened higher but close lower for the last few sessions. Also, the volume is pretty light. This should be normal retracement or pull backs. Our market was in consolidation mood from Jan'05 to June'05, that is six months. I'm sure our upside is still not limited. Moreover, companies are still turning in good corporate results, this could mean that the high oil price has not really affected their earnings yet. If companies can stomach the high oil price, the economy should be able to move forward still but cautiously.

STI: The odds are higher for it to move upwards to test resistance after the National Day Rally. I seen it happened over the last 2 years, where after the rally, market feel "good". But bear in mind about the oil factor.

K1 Ventur recorded an excellent FY05, generating revenues of $576 mil compared to $230 mil a year ago. Also it is going to sell Gas Company of Hawaii to Macquarie Infrastructure Company for US$238 million cash. Market seems to like this deal and K1 closed + 0.02 and finished top of the active list with 51 mil in volume transacted on last Friday.
From the Technical point of view, a double bottom formation (Look like a W ) is forming should share price breaks 0.310 to form the double bottom and volume is more than 51 mil. RSI looks set to record a higher high if it breaks 0.310 while MACD is in buy zone.