Monday, February 23, 2009
NOL: Stuck in a side-way range. IT means i shouldn't be using ADX or MacD in my analysis. Stochastics suggest a rebound is on the way. As i am short on NOL, i am waiting for the purple moving average to confirm the bearishness. Based on the last two candle stick formation, it seems like NOL is ready to pop higher. Should I long? No! Up yes, but how much is the up-side? Aren't i safer to remain short as we now how market can plunge more than it climbs?
HSI: The red spot on the chart is the likelyhood where the rebound may end. It is the downtrend resistance coupled with the neckline of the double top formation. The rally today caught my surprise because it came after Dow closed weak. HSI has not broken the last low about 12,400 points which disappoints me. HSI may rebound within the range still. RSI looks to be supported and this is bad news to shortist. Coz' if HSI is to rebound, plenty of room for RSI to move higher. However, this intra-week rebound may just be shortlived unless it can reverse the bad picture painted on the weekly chart. I am still hanging on to my HSI shorts. I am contemplating if i should add to my shorts since the market rebounds higher this week. Should i bet that this is only a rebound week and that next week the market continues to fall? If i am to try for it, then i have to reduce my short positions in NOL and UOL. What about diversification? Incase HSI go crazy and up 1000 points. Sure i can risk my 2009 profits. Question is, do i want to build on the profits by taking my profits early, or do i want to risk partial profits and go for bigger profits. For the record, whenever i try to go for big money, i never get it. Like i said in the last blog post, i knew the market wouldn't tank this week, simply because i still have short positions... lol
UOL: I will be watching closely on the rebound. ADX is showing a breakout in downtrend and strength as well. However, MacD is still not convincing. Both RSI and MacD has a chance to form bullish divergence at current level. I ignore Stochastic here as we are not in a range.
Of the 3 stocks above, i like Wilmar best. Definitely in my target list to long since it completed a bullish engulfing pattern with super volume. Indicators seem to confirm the signal. As for SGX and F&N, i think they may just be heading up to re-test support turn resistance.
As it is only Monday and we have 4 trading days to go, i need to see how we trade by Wednesday to form an anticipation. On Thursday, it is time again to participate in the traders club which is an exclusive meeting. We take it seriously such that we ban graduates who registered and didn't turn up. These people do not deserve to be in the club. This is the place where I offer our service and expertise to help get graduates up to speed. Hence i will not allow people to take this meeting for granted. So on Thursday i think it is a fantastic time to gather everyone because if this is the rebound week, Friday may present lots of shorting opportunities. Remember, it is safer to short on the rebound!
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