Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Follow the gut feel?

After the comments by JiaBao shu shu, China may taps its reserves to invest in their motherland. Woah... even China needs to tap reserves... this bear is really fierce. I hope the great depression II will not happen in my life time... i don't want to see it. On the other hand, if it does happen, gosh, it paves way for great opportunities post depression. If i'm still young by then, maybe it is my chance to tua huat? keke Anyway, the market boosted by Dow's overnight positive closing and closed higher. Although the index is down, individual stocks are up mostly. Volume again is pretty average. Just abit more thoughts on volume, i think the avg for now we can take 1b. We shouldn't be expecting 2b or more as many retailers has turned "forced" investors.

Do you believe in gut feel? You can read about it here. You will be surprise what i wrote one year ago is similar to current market! Who says history doesn't repeat itself? With many stocks near support, it is very tempting to long. Just like what i wrote yesterday. Today's price rally caught my eye. I didn't want to long, rather i feel the market could be sucking in buyers and setting up for a sell-off. Although technically i shouldn't start to long here, however my concern is, when the decline starts, it may be an ugly gap down leaving us with no chance to short. One of the option i am considering now is scale up selling. My friend already started doing this. The technique is shorting on up days all the way to resistance, and once turn down, hoot more. However, this is a high risk strategy, if you are wrong, then it will be very painful. One must have enough conviction about the direction inorder to do this. I am tempted... selecting my target carefully. But question is, should i follow my gut feel?

Comfort delgro fell through the MTL level, i am observing. I did not take up position here. My objective to be monitoring this stock is to see how my sell signals are doing. If the sell signals start to be profitable, then i am more confident to take the next one that comes along. This is because my strategies are "buy low, sell high". HEnce if one by one the sell signals start to be profitable, it means the stocks are turning down at resistance one by one, sector by sector. This is how i derive confidence in taking signals and positions. I do not like to trade the market in random just because there is a signal from the system. Liklihood is i will see more losses then winners. How about cutting the losses fast and ride the winners inorder to be profitable when using the system? ask yourself, if you have cut losses fast for 4 trades, the 5th is profitable, do you think you have the resolve to ride the trend? chances are you will take your profits too early and in the long run, end up nett loss. One doesn't need to trade everyday, but must observe what the market is telling you. All you need is one trading idea to hoot!

NOL's bollinger is very very tight and it is approaching resistance on the weekly chart. Either up or down, i think can trade. Watch out for it.

Wilmar has a bear flag waving on the weekly chart, i think it's going to announce it's results soon? Maybe sell on news?

The stars says major movement on the 8th/9th Feb.... hmm... tua lao sai next week? Just nice, stimulus plan + nonfarm payroll...

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