Sunday, February 01, 2009

Focus is on bailout plan

With the bailout plan delayed for another week, it leaves the market in anticipation. I rather they get on with it and let the plan out. Market dislike uncertainty and i should expect the support and resistance to hold if there are no major newsflow. Otherwise, if we look at the bigger picture, we are in this trading range. The only consolation is that this trading range is huge and it is possible to profit from both long and short. What i fear most is an illiquid market with tight range. However this is also the first sign of market bottom. Read any trading books, you will know market bottom is usually not volatile and slow.

I have squared off most of my positions after CNY and indeed it is heart wrenching to see Cosco and Capitaland closed lower after i covered my shorts. Although i am already in this business for so long, i am human afterall. I do feel Cake sim with bad positions too. Frustration and greed do manifest in me. All these years, it has been a constant battle with the inner self. I am left with only HSI short position. Here i am keeping this short because my opinion is still of a bear market and i don't see any reason for HSI not to trade closer to 10k. Hence technically i am looking out for key levels to trade HSI. My last short position is about 13,700 points which is the neckline of the double top on HSI. There was a successful re-test of this neckline as a resistance. I am trading based on weekly and daily chart and thus qualify myself as a position trader rather than scalper. This will allow me to focus on work and only make trading decision near market closing hour. Friday's closing as well as 4pm to 5pm is more important to me. Similarly, if i am trading forex or futures where i am looking at the 30min or 15min chart, my focus is on how the candle will close. Hence my first objective is to see HSI re-test the 12.1k level... if it cracks, i think we might see lower. Otherwise, we may still be in the range. When will i cover? Either i buy back at support or if there is any bullish news. Otherwise, i may even add if support cracks. As for Singapore stocks, current levels ain't interesting to me as yet. Let's see how the week opens.

After the barrage of signals during first week of Jan, i did not receive any good signal as yet. This may be because of the trading range that we are in. This is where if you are using trend-following signals, you are bound to lose. Hence even user has to be discerning upon when to use what strategy. Otherwise those unneccessary losses will kill you mentally and hurt you pockets.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.