Thursday, February 05, 2009

May the market falls

Although CNY has just passed barely a week.... without any recent trades, i felt that time was crawling by. It seems like i haven't taken a position for a long time. Gambler instincts! haha Today i added another short position in the market. This time round, i decided to go with my gut feel and shorted NOL. No doubt NOL is in a tight range, unless it breakout to the upside which i don't feel it's possible given a slow down in global trade. Hence to me, i feel downside is more realistic. The rally in the market presented me an opportunity to bet NOL by shorting nearer to the resistance. I shorted at 1.23. At worse, maybe i can cover back at 1.10s...

HSI's intra-day rally caught my eye... when index was trading at 13.3k by 11am, i contemplated at running away. However i reminded myself to focus on the primary trend and visualise my worse case scenario. At worse i lose back some of my profits in 2009. Too hum ji will only result in tan bo jiak.

The whole week is full of ups and downs without an obvious direction or even the slightest hint. What market may want me to believe is we may be heading higher in the near term. In this sideway market, i rather short at resistance then to long at support. I have got battle scars that reminded me that no matter how i should only long if i see bullish signs which is sorely missing. I had wanted to hoot big on NOL, but i hold back. My position now is just a tikam on the market lao sai next week either due to a lousy non-farm pay roll or bailout plan refuted and of course the bradley turn date next Mon. Hence if i am right about market testing new lows, then i always can add after it breaks. Otherwise going into a full position now, i risk more if i am wrong.

I cut my BAC. This stock is really hopeless. Even though Dow rallied, it is moving lower. It was a trade placed by mistake and i have no qualms about cutting it. To date, i made two mistakes in US market. BAC by accidental order, AAPL by lack of commitment to do proper homework.

Once again i set up myself for a bear market. If i am right, it means over the last few trading days market is sucking in buyers. After next Monday, i should have a clearer picture.

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