If anything, last 2 weeks of the market is a mean test to my psychology in trading. With prices soaring, i am vested light in stocks. Every passing day tested my patience. Every intra-day weakness was magified as "the moment" through my bearish glasses. Alas, who am i to dictate where the market should go. If I am late in the party, I shall wait. But little did i expect this wait to last 2 weeks. Truth be told, at times i am really tempted to initiate long position.
I stood by my analysis and convictions where experience reminded me to hold my horses. Those painful and demoralising losses of the past lingers in my mind as i try to initiate any long positions. I asked myself, if i buy here, where is my stop loss, peering through the charts, the stop-loss would be quite a distance from where the closing price is. With 2 weeks of rally, pull back is imiment. It certainly does not make sense to initiate a long position at this stage. Coupled with Astrology analysis where bradley turn date is tonight and indices trading at resistance, what odds do i have? How about quickies? Yes i imagined if i have bought during intraday weakness, i would have pocketed profits here and there. But in Hokkien, there is a saying, "Eat pig, pay dog". It means to say, for all the small profits here and there, soon, this suckers rally will suck me in an even more risky position and that single loss will wipe out all the small profits. Yes, been there done that. Big money is made from trading along with the trend! I already have a set of methods known as technical analysis. If I do not follow my methods, i will lose the consistency that I have and will be trading at random.
Earnings season is coming up at US side, with the buy up leading to this week, "factored in" could be the fashion in analysis if the market comes down. Of course if the results is bad, it will confirm a slowdown many had feared. Fed minutes will be ready for the market to digest tomorrow and also the crude inventories. All the market need is an excuse to come off, one of them may be it.
China shares has performed remarkably well. Last week i seen many stocks trading near their resistance and today, most of them broke through. This is indeed strength which i cannot deny. I recall just months ago during the last reporting, many of these china companies report lower earnings. There is little incentive for them to be up at this stage. If a rally is not backed by fundamental reasons, surely it cannot last? Synear? I remembered the dumplings turned sour due to margin squeezed... why on earth the sudden interest in the stock? 2004, the year i blindly followed the herd and got into the red army frenzy. Those rally looked so real back then and i was so blind to the resistance that the selling off really caught everyone flat footed.
We still have 4 trading days to go. Let's see Mr Market's trump card.
DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
