Sunday, August 10, 2008

A strong Dollar & a weak oil

As the title suggests, this is what drove the market up overnight in the ang mo land. Despite bad news from the financial sector, it still managed to close up 300 points. Very volatile indeed. This is indeed a very challenging time for investors as the market can swing either way wildly. The number one question everyone will be asking is, will we follow Dow? Last few rounds, we are moving opposite direction of Dow. Whenever there is a gap up, it ends up as a black candle. So what i will be observing tomorrow will be follow through buying as well as resistance being taken out. Once this phenomenon is seen plus more follow through buying, then the market direction may have changed. Time to look out for evidence for this. Dow is now exactly at my support turns resistance. It will be very nice for Dow to turn down from you which means it will eventually heads lower.

I'm on 3 short positions. Surely the overnight 300 points rally is disgusting to me. I thought i had nailed it when Dow fell 200 points nicely for my shorts... never in my wildest dream to wake up on a Saturday morning and stare at a 300 points rally. With oil and other commodities continuing their decline, my noble shorts looked safe. Ferro and Yanlord is where i am abit more uncomfortable. I would need HSI and SSE to continue their downward spiral. I am eyeing HSI 21k for support.



Ferro: After a test of the gap, it fell, i am taking this view that it may go lower. I am wrong when it closes the gap and trades above it.

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