Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Expect the Unexpected

Truth be told, Monday was very very ugly. We thought US will follow suit and continue the onslaught from last Friday..... but to many people's surprise! It didn't! Instead, it's a whopping +170s gain! Yes, expect the unexpected! The no follow through selling today could mark the end of the retracement and it will be nice to be looking for market to push to the next high. People who have been following me in waiting for the higher low, this is not the higher low. This is just a retracement on the way up. The low may be created say next month? The kind of low we want is of sustained movement, just like when market rebound, we want a sustained upwards movement.

US side tonight reported friendly CPI numbers which may pave the way for Ben to cut rate. Also, durable goods order numbers was surprisingly better than expected. This means the economy is not that bad afterall. Another confident shot to the Feds.

The world awaits the statement from FOMC. But i'm not going to do nothing....infact according to my experience, market always know before hand. Hence i will be monitoring the market for any clues of what is likely to happen.

Now, if Ben really cuts, it doesn't guarantee the market will tua rally. I will track the price closely, coz' if the cut is priced in, the upside is limited. Let us be objective, the trend of the market is still biased to the downside. Most importantly, the real world problems still persist!

I'm still holding on to my Lian Beng. The retracement so far hasn't done much harm and I kinda like the price actions. I further added Tat Hong to my portfolio near closing when 2.65 did not give way. I eye 2.64 as possible support and my view last Friday maintained, that we should close higher this week. Again, tat hong is another rare stock still trading above the 200EMA.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.