A peek into US Market Stock picks

6 hours to market open and from the XPertTrader screening results, i have the following stocks under microscope. My last trade on amazon triggered stop loss. Dow unexpectedly rally despite bad data. Nevertheless, tonight i'm working overtime again to grow money.

CT1-Long Strategy
THS
HRL

TT1-Short Strategy
IBKR


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Crawling my way out of the rut

This week is supposed to be volatile due to lots of data coming out from the US. A quick check on the Dow revealed that the there was a bullish divergence in macd histogram and this tells me that there is a possible rally coming up. The 600 points drop on Monday is as bearish as it seems but i do not rule out the fact that a bottom is being hammered out. If we don't go test the November low, chances are we break above 9k in December. I see RSI is going to challenge the resistance soon. I will be observing that and use that as an indication of where is the likely direction.


I wrote about how i got into a losing streak after my holidays. How do i deal with this morale dampening moment? My plan is to trade smaller size than usual. This serve 2 purposes, number 1, i can slowly gain back my momentum and increase the size when the winning streak begins. Number 2, if i continue on this losing streak, i won't hurt my capital. To stop trading totally is avoiding... which to me is the loser way. I looked back at those losing trades and realise the mistake i made. I was too complacent and lazy. I took signals easily and was too eager to make money and that lead me to choose my trades loosely. The discipline must return if i were to go back to winning ways. By the way, as far as i remember, my last losing streak was actually way back in 2006 if my memory serve me correctly.


Trades i made today plus last night incude a short position in Amazon Inc and Ascendas Reits. Both stocks triggered my TT2 short sell screening rule. Amazon is listed in Nasdaq, i am using CFD to trade which is so much simpler and easy as compared to options which i used to do. Placing the trade is relatively easy as i am already familiar with the platform. No need to choose strike price, check IV and stuffs... how cool can it be? I said i am going to hunt for all sorts of money making opportunities and i mean it. It's time i fund my lifestyle from trading. With the petroleum price decreasing and the COE coming down, it is tempting to buy a car... but i'm still resisting it unless neccessary. Somehow quite silly as i spend most of my time infront of the computer trading and charting... I don't even mind taking MRT as i can read my book during the long journey... otherwise where to find time to read or think about strategies? Anyway, i'm still holding on to my capitaland. As for the only stock pick by TT2 last night, it really came down. I hope tonight Amazon join Ascendas to head south. keke


Today i got my staff to sort out participants whom i have coached since 2006. Gosh the number is astonishing. I'm itching to organise a seminar just for these folks as they made my dreams possible. Without their support in the old days, i wouldn't have left my IT job and own a business, T.A author and trading full time. Along the years, we have fine tuned the course training and now finally came out with 6 screening strategies that made trading so much simpler. People used to ask me why i no longer conduct seminars. I feel flattered when some of the old participants are still asking about me. The truth is, with a team of trainers, we can achieve so much more. In 2008, while my team of trainers have taken my role of training, i have been working on trading strategies and how to improve the technical analysis training sessions. Most importantly, we have established a sound after-course support commited to help graduates.

For those of you who are trading US stocks, i am re-starting my engine... so the growmoney quickpick list will come soon... give me some time to find back my midas touch. : ) Best is Amazon go to $35!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A loser speaks

Look this way if you want to see how a loser is throwing money away in the stock market. Capland looked destined to be my third consecutive loss since i came back from my holidays. Though small, i don't like to lose. It made me look stupid and not respecting money. Though i know i have the ability to win, but i am human afterall.... sometimes just need to bitch about it. I recalled reading some trading books, where they talk about a bad stretch of losses is common to any trader, i think i have hit onto one. Just when i am so motivated to create wealth and abundance, i hit into this barren spell.

The worse part is, while i am undergoing this bad spell of "gong tao", I just had a little disagreement with my significant other. I shall spill the beans right here, let's see when she will ever discover this post and ask me to remove. haha Now, it all started because of choosing holidays pictures to develop and file nicely in a photo album. Sound silly isn't it to start a little argument because of this? She wanted me to decide if we are going to develop 50 or 100 pictures because the coupons she gotten is very cheap, hearsay 0.15 only for a pic. Now the thing is, they are going to expire soon and if we don't use it, she intends to give some away to friends. So she asked if we can choose the photos right now? I rejected citing i have got to study the markets and choosing pictures will take at least 1 hour. Then came the justice bao face... but the funny thing is, she knows i needed the time and hence cannot be angry with me, yet at the same time she is feeling very pissed off! keke There is a common understanding about how i need my time after marriage.. there you go... because of 50 pictures, is it worth all the negative aura in the house? Welcome to marriage life for you singles out there! haha The thing is, for me, i don't mind letting her choose what pictures she wants to develop so it makes my life simpler, but for her, it will be so sweet to choose the pictures together... Men are from mars, women are from venus. Hence i always say, it is important to seek alignment with your loved ones if you are a trader... otherwise like today, i needed time to internalise the losing streak and still need to be understanding to her. Who's there for me at a time like this? .... My trusted blog....

Hence in order not to sleep in the living room, i have to stop here for today. Check back again for market analysis.

To all the married men, cheers!

P.S if you see the contents of this post modified, it means i have to sleep on the sofa for a few days... Market bless me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market bottoming in progress?

Once again, market didn't go down further. Bad news didn't manage to flip the market over. The most important thing is higher low stood the test. With the negative DI coming down and positive DI trickling up, i would be anticipating a bullish crossover. The race is on between MAcD centerline crossover and adx bullish crossover. However, it must be noted that indicators are slower. That's why I am keen to observe how the resistance level holds up. Currently 20-day moving average is flattened and may offer some form of resistance. Another keen level is 1916. Bottoming evidences are surfacing through support and declining volume. But plenty of overhead resistances, hence the road to north will not be easy. Every resistance is still a short to me. Because the 20-day MA has flattened, shortists should watch out for a change in trend.

I started a small long position in capitaland with the view that we may visit the resistance level at 3.27. Since the price is far away from normalcy, my view is a rally may happen to return to normalcy. For this trade, i will be using a tight stop as the downside can fall back to 2.30s..

After XPertTrader screening the course strategies, it yields no high probability result. Hence the wait continues. For the benefits of those who don't know what i am talking about, these course rules covered trending stocks as well as swing trading opportunities. Hence it makes trading much simpler.



DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Outlook on STI

Let us begin this week with an outlook on STI. We all know government is coming out with plans to help us during this challenging times. Even the budget day was brought forward to January. Very swift actions. However, it is what happens in the US that counts. We are still going to be heavily influence by the market big boys like HSI, Nikkei and the cursed Dow. Back to the chart, the week ended with a bullish engulfing pattern upon Friday's closing. However there is still nothing much to cheer about on the weekly chart. Resistance level i will be watching is 1916 and the 20-day moving average. So no actions from me till I see how market trades at that level. It is important to see individual stock at their resistances level too. The double bottom on the STI looks to be happening. I like the volume behaviour and all i need is the right wing of the "W". On top of that, alot of stocks has higher low... a good sign.. maybe the relief rally which many have been hoping for is here.

As for Dow, it closed above 8k... however, the rebound last Friday may not indicate the worst is over. The only good thing i observe last week was how Asia market held their ground despite the rout in US. The BB on Dow weekly opened up. The brief rebound may be just relief....maybe a re-test of the breakout of support last week. To invalid this opinion, it must break and stay above 8k.

After my screening on XPertTrader, there were no good short signals for tomorrow. Using XPertTrader is increasingly important. I mean, more than one thousand stocks.... how on earth am i going to know which stock to trade. With those trading rules, it's like opening my eyes to those hidden signals... like rafflesMG, it doesn't appear frequently in the top volume list. But it's sell signal was picked up by TT2(course screening strategy).

After my return from holidays, in my haste(Greed), i made two bad trades. Although the loss is within the 2% risk mgmt, but still i am feeling unhappy. It seems like the pride in me has grown. I began to hate losing. But losing is part and parcel of this game which i am so familiar with. What i am doing now is trying to gain the momentum back. If you are like me, don't dispair. I have walked this path before and i know after many small losses, a big win is waiting in queue. : ) I am going to be agreessive in the coming months and amass my wealth. Day and night, i be looking for money making opportunities. Huat ah!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

StraitsAsia broke major low

I'm back! It always feel nice to take a break. This time round i was totally cut off from the market plus my handphone was turned off! :D This retreat is badly needed... This is what i have done, i registered myself and wife to a 3 day motivational seminar first before we head for the holidays. It's highly important for the significant other to understand what we are doing. Trading is unlike other profession. Sometimes we thread by the fine line of sanity. So here i am after 14 days of rest, i'm back. This time i came back with an objective. I think some time ago i blogged about how i lose interest in trading and it was a chore. Basically my short term objectives were met and i have no longer term objectives, or at least i wasn't clear. Now i have set myself new targets! I am going to read aloud my objectives in my study room, paste them infront of my 2 monitors! hooooya! Before i sleep, i will keep repeating my objectives until i drift into my dreams.... morning when i wake up, again i am going to read aloud my objective... i am just gonna be so focus in achieving it!

I like a particular post above regarding whether am i still holding on to my Cosco before i leave for my vacation. Nope, i decided not to lug around my laptop and hence square off all trading positions before i left. For the record, i covered cosco at 0.835 for a small profit. Cosco went as low as 0.760. I didn't cover there. To bull shit in this blog, i could have boasted about still owning it. But nope, that's not me. Whatever u read here are true trades and not fiction. This is me, i see it as an important point to be able to face my losses my mistakes and not care about others opinion of me. Yes i look silly in some of my trades, but who cares, so long i learn from my mistake and not make them again. Like weeks ago, I cut Synear for a small loss and Synear went crashing down next day. If i turn back the clock, i would probably still do the same. This is because the concepts and experience has been internalised. Risk management is top in my priority due to massive losses in the younger years. Hence most decisions made will not be regretted. Of course there are times when i broke my trading rules and those were the times i would starve myself from the fine things in life to compensate the losses in the trading account. It's common sense, how can i spend when i make a loss in the market? I ought to punish myself.

Lai, today's market volume wasn't too great. A quick screen with XPertTrader shows that the heavy sell-off only occurs in some stocks. Many experts are calling a bottom. Well, let us see how the previous low is tested. Fundamentally, i'm still trying to absorb all the news... a bit slow and retarded at the moment...

StraitsAsia is my top study tonight. The way it broke the previous low, oooooh... bad news! However it may be too late to short now... let us wait for a re-test of the support turn resistance.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

News is out, Obama wins, Sell on news?

The market rebound for the sixth day and we are right at resistance. Infact alot of stocks are near resistance. This was the sign i'm looking for to open new short position and thus i chosen Cosco for a start. Actually I am going for a 12-day holiday from Friday onwards and it is to my best interest not to take any more position. However, i hate to miss opportunities as today, the market is at this wonderful pivotal point and the risk reward is good. October was a bad month for global market, however i made substantial profits from the strategic short positions in prop sector. That's why i am risking this profit on Cosco. Even when i'm wrong, the stop loss on Cosco will only cost me a small part of the profits.

I'm still contemplating on whether to lug my laptop along..... it's a holiday afterall.... if i trade, then mana holiday? hahaha At the same time, it looks likely the turning point of the market is near, either long or short.... i may lose the opportunity to long at the next higher lows..... Dilema...

Cosco: Candlestick weakness couple with MA resistance

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Profits kept inside warm warm pocket for shorts

The strong rebound caught my eye. I promptly took my short profits on HKLand as well as Yanlord. I do not believe the market can go down one straight line to 1200 where i eye the major support. With such a hefty fall, i no believe government will not do anything. Anyway it is good profits and the stocks have tested the support. Now that i have no more trading positions in the market. It's time to identify those resistance levels and ambush the bull. Participate in this rebound? I will only consider if the resistance is broken.

Market expects Ben to cut the rate to below 1%. The impact of the last cut was lukewarm, hence to bring the rate below 1% may or may not be welcomed by the market. The reaction of the market after the cut will be key to determine the next direction.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Selling into strength

The pattern in recent weeks seems to be selling into rallies. I observed many stocks hit their resistance and fell back. In November Issue of Smart Investor, i wrote that this market has got no confidence. I also observed many stocks are in a nice downtrend, even the index is going down nicely. However, there was a suspension of shorting through my ang mo platform. I called them up and they told me an email will be sent to inform me when we can use the platform to short the Singapore stocks again. With 3 short positions, adding to short was not my priority so i couldn't care less. Initially i thought it was banned by exchange, but another brokerage house can still short. So i let it pass.

Today took my profits from UOL and prefered to ride on Yanlord and HKland instead. I am not comfortable with 3 shorts because STI is near the 1800 level. My friend advised me to be wary of a big rebound near this level which may squeeze my profits. It's always good to be taking profits on the way down. Just as in the bull market, i also take my profits on the way up. Risk management!

Recently, the course screening rule known as the TT2 short was making waves among the graduates because of the high probability. If you think you want to find out more about this rule, just go to www.chartnexus.com/events and join one of the previews.


CapitalMall: Another stock picked by TT2.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Neither long nor short

I screened the market with XPerTrader on Sunday night and observed that many stocks are in an extended downward movement. To add to shorts here will be more risk than reward as most resistance are far above. Today the market went bullish and most stocks are moving upwards. Now, is it time to long? For me, i would not participate in this rebound as yet. My guess is, most of the stocks could be forming bear flags or are retesting their resistance. It is at this resistance we will know if the bulls are stronger or the bears and subsequently choose our side of the battle. I have patience to wait, but i fear market may not have the strength to test the resistance and falls first. Last Friday, I just added another short position on UOL while keeping my yanlord. I thought a bear flag is in the making... I know i am wrong if it breaks the flag.


HKLand: Resume of downtrend?

Meanwhile, do you guys know what is dang dang dang dang?



DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

China Shares Scandals rock the market

I would be blind not to record this in this trading diary of mine. FerroChina, was viewed as one of the titan of the S-shares could not repay a loan. In this bear market, many scandals and negative corporate news has surfaced from S-shares.... i have long doubted the quality of those companies listed in our bourse. I mean why are the best listed in HK market? US market? So those that list in Singapore? Another observation is many of those china shares are fast becoming penny shares... look at Hongxin... one by one they were being shot down... mercilessly... sino-env, synear, jiutian, cosco, yzj, so many of them! With the current bad news on Ferro and China Dye, it should drive more fear into investors. Especially those who were sold stories about how good these china shares are.

That's why today i choose to short yanlord at $1. My view is, it is a lower high and there is no incentive for S-shares to rally for now. Confidence will be at a low after the scandals. Furthermore, property sector in China... is it still booming? My guess is the rally to $1 from it's all time low was due to the interest rate cut. However, fundamentals effect is slow and sentiment will drive the stock price for now.

They blamed shortist for the turmoil but hey they banned shorting and look? It's worse than before the ban. They are obviously no longer in control. Concerted interest rates cut, Bail out plan approval, ban shorting... nothing works anymore. When nothing works anymore... how will the market moves up? I think the important thing for now is to find an edge... anticipate which news is going to bolster the market's confidence and act on it.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Will Concerted efforts salvage the situation?

News is out, concerted efforts to cut interest rate by major central banks. This is the action that i have been wary about. It always happen. The more i am in this trade, the more experience i gets. Hence when similar situation happens, i know what to anticpate. True i miss out the greatest plunge in history by covering my shorts early. I looked back, would i have done the same? No. After covering capland, cosco, yanlord, plus the profits from my HSI trades, i should not covered all my shorts. With the profits in my account, i would be only risking my profits if i hang on to my noble shorts and leave a trailing stop. This is a simple rule in trading, risking profits to make bigger profits. Something i was so used to doing yet this round, i miss a great chance to make more money. Is this greed? No i think this is a chance for me to reflect and remind myself to be always sharp. Perhaps dabbling in forex took my focus away from my positions. After some months in forex, i find that it is indeed more difficult than stocks. There are carrying trades unwinding to look out for, economy data which may swing the currency up and down, oil price affecting la,... if u realise, it's the same for stocks... however the difference is, for stocks, it moves slower and hence if you are slow in reacting, it's more forgiving. When comes to forex, if you are slow, you end up run over by a lorry!

Today i have sinned. Like many, I saw that the market had a strong rally during the afternoon session. No one knows what happened, but my guess is, the concerted efforts that i am wary about may have happened - concerted efforts. Hence i went long on HSI but within 30 mins, i was stopped out. Itchy fingers.. keke Anyway, how the market reacts to the concerted efforts is more important. If market moves down instead of up to cheer the move, it means we are going to see new low. If the market cheers the move, it means we could have seen a temporary bottom and hopefully we have a sustained rally. The key thing here is to recognise entries into the rally.
Next is where are the resistance to short. Even scooby doo will be able to sniff the low level of confidence in the market currently.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bailout plan no big deal

After being rejected, the bailout plan finally got approved for the second time. When i was long S&P, my anticipation was a reactive rally to the approval. I was wrong. The market did a sell on news to close the week negative. 10,000 level may be tested in coming days. Althought the bailout plan was approved, the slew of economic data that came last week were bad. Even oil fell below US$90.... then.... why on earth are we going to have a 20% increase in electricity bills for??? Tey say is because of forward something... then throw out some terms which nobody understands? It's like when someone ask me how fast is Ferarri, i answered, because of the 0.55 mm diameter of the cylinder, it can combust the air and fuel better.... What the heck! Anyway, if it's forward, econ data pointing to slow down, GDP forecase is down, Oil price is down, How come going forward it's going up???

I sold my Synear after it doesn't go down despite broadbase market is going down. The logic is simple, Synear may not be the stock that will lead the downfall. Those that were going down are local bluechips. After throwing out Synear, i am all ready for the next chance to short. Currently most of the stocks are languishing near their support levels... i will exercise patience in waiting at resistance for a good risk / reward entry.

Now for stocks, many have completed the "Ice Kachang" formation. I will be particularly interested in bluechips over china shares. The best option is to have more exposure to bluechips than to S-shares.

Currently at ChartNexus, we are prepaing to move to a new training center. The first ChartNexus Traders Club will meet up at this new training center. The 4 hour session will cover market direction, sector analysis and stock picks. I'm sure this is what our graduates have been waiting for! :D

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Double blows to the bulls

As many would have guessed, how can there be no bailout plan? The bailout plan is 90% complete pending approval now. The market took a double blow when another big bank ought to sell some assets to Citi and then over at europe side, a couple of banks have to be rescued. This is evidence that the credit crunch has spread.... all we need is one such case in Asia and we might see more blood. Even HK dai kor HSI also ozzes blood today... 4% hor... no joke. My view of a short term rebound due to the bail out package seems to be too optimistic. Even the bullish divergence looks to be negated by the selling today. But! As we draw closer to the previous low, the better.... coz' technically a bottom formation may be formed.

Currently i am enjoying the ang mo platform alot... it gives me so much options! I am both into stocks and forex and index... wah if not for my limited brain cells, i would have monitored commodities too!

Continue to hold Synear... what i need is tainted dumpling over here! keke

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Buffett's US$5B inspired Asia

Asia opened positive and closed higher encouraged by Buffett's overnight US$5B purchase of goldman sachs. I was stopped out of my S&P long overnight. Did i turn long? Not yet... i still ain't see resistance broken yet. The way where market fell from resistance with high volume yesterday may suggest strong hands unloading. To be sure, the next time we are at resistances, the selling will come with heavy volume yet again.

Friday is the dateline of the bailout plan. Currently the market is undecided with neither the bulls nor the bears dare to take much risk. The bailout plan can cause the market to swing either way.... i am keeping a lookout and watching how market is anticipating the move.

Again most of the prices are in the middle of nowhere, during this volatile times, it is prudent to wait for the price at significant levels.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls tried but failed

Isn't it scary? The wild wild swing continue after an unexpected triple digit loss in wall street. I read this selling as a dangerous sign. Reason being, it could be strong hands unloading at pop up in a typical bear market. A clear sign will be another test of this level, and the stock refuse to move up with heavy volume. This is where i will try to initiate short positions. Otherwise, i will see how the pull back is trading and look for opportunities to go long. Even SGX is getting tougher with naked shortists. I hope they leave CFDs alone... otherwise we will be like KLSE and JSX... can only long and not short.

Currently i long a S&P contract at 1220 level. If i am right, i will see 1250 soon before 1280... Synear short looks safe for now, and anyupside, i think will be capped. Despite the tainted milk scandal, ChinaMilk is still resilient. I wonder why hasn't it been a shortist target? Or isit because it is too obvious?

As for local stocks, i am still looking at marine sector to have a go.... a pity, Cosco went for a diving trip way too early... This week we will have a couple of key econ data which can move the market. It is also important to observe market's reaction to the data.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Grand Stand Finish

Now even US ban shorting 799 US banking stocks following UK's actions. China declare they will buy the 3 main bank stocks with their funds. Read the news, so many pieces of news suggest the government will not let the banking system fails and rightly so. Remember i was also a shortist, but i gladly give up some profits and cheer this intervention by strong hands. Really, so what if i make from my shorts and see world economy goes down? Let's hope with Paulson's 700B proposal, the rut can stop and let us recover from there.

Short term wise, no doubt there will be a rally, any weakness looks like a buy to me. But one must be nimble. I will be wary for any strong hands distributing on the way up. The positive divergence adds strength to this rally. So when to buy? What to buy? I still prefer to wait for a pull back before deciding. Surely i will not short stocks for now. If the world is working hard to make it happen, either you join them, or you get the hell out of their way!

I covered my noble shorts on Friday and keep my synear short. The profits from the recent short positions will allow me to sit on synear until proven wrong.

2 Oct is the date where the ban on shorting will be lifted. Guys, remember now, supply and demand. Now they have ban shorting, it means they are tightening supply, demand will drive stocks up. But my point is, if everyone is buying and buying and price goes higher and higher... who is selling to them? There maybe an avalanche of selling once we tip the scale on the demand side.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Central bankers rescue the market yet again

Sinking my bum onto the sofa, CNBC blasting away on TV, today i choose my battle ground in the living room. All i am interested from the news now is facts and not opinons from analysts or gurus. If you realise, non of them saw AIG or Lehman coming.....As a trader, it is our job to observe how the market is reacting to the facts and that is how we formulate trading ideas. This will ensure we will be in control when chaos breakout. Remember i was liquidating my short positions as the market head lower to avoid risk as i see the probability of a rebound higher than going lower. Look, unlike a bull market, when the market tanks too fast too furious, there is always a risk of government intervention. While they can let the market rise all it wants, but when it comes to going down, they are not going to sit aside and do nothing. Just like how Fed had to save AIG and giving up Lehman. A shortist's nightmare is when strong hands come in and squeeze the air out of them!

This is the second time central bankers pump in money to stabilise financial markets. It only goes to show how bad the situation is. It is already one year and we are just as bad if not worse off as compared to one year ago when this subprime mess first headlined. Back to my covered shorts before the crash, if i have another chance with the same situation, i probably do the same. My profit target had reached, i had to adjust my exposure. Although all along my analysis is we are going down, but i never saw this big crash coming to be honest. Question now is, what to do going forward? I know exactly where i am going to short again.... i also know what to look out for if this is a bottom and exactly where i will long. Remember my ang mo shifu said, "Ask not where the market is heading but what are you going to do when the market gets there". So do i feel sad now that i have miss the big crash because i covered my dow too early? I am in this business too long to be affected by all these. The idea is to stay profitable consistently. I am quietly happy to be surviving this bear market as compared to the one in year 2001 where i became a "forced" investor. I think the worse kind of market participant is the kind who win in bull market and then lose it all in a bear market.... year after year.

Yes, i was making money profiting from the downside. But it was not as happy as when i was profiting from a bull market. My mind wanders to my dad's description of how during the last financial crisis, people were queing up at ATM to withdraw all the money for fear of bank collapse. I was probably too young to realise the impact at that time. But now even as i stare at the bearish chart of DBS, i am happy to see a shorting opportunity but at the same time, what if i am right and DBS really go down big time and come out in the news with bad exposure to Lehman and more? My paltry profit is nothing compare to a total financial breakdown which will affect everyone around me. I cannot see myself cheering for a total annihilation of banking sector. Just like when the hurricane was blowing accross US, i was short Dow & HSI... i was so happy that the wind is destructive...my profits in my short positions grew as the wind blew stronger. I was actually cheering for a powerful disaster. Inhuman, people's homes were destroyed, lives were lost, and here i am cheering just because i am making money out of this natural disaster. I feel wierd. Hence, although i know no matter how they try to bail out, the damage is done, but i support any efforts to stabilise the market for the good of everyone. Stock market is the first level of leverage in the financial arena, if it crashes, it will cause a domino effect.

Today's miracle is something familiar to Aug'07. Then, Fed decreased the discount coupon rate. Market then rally for 2 months before crashing. This time round it will be useful to know where the resistances are and get your CFD ready once again. Over the last 2 days, i was so tempted to short more in the market. I had to hold myself from commiting. I checked the charts, we are too far away from resistances for any good risk/reward trade and the market has tanked too much and may rebound....surely i don't want to be a squeezed shortist.

This market, in chinese, i only have these to say: 不死也受重伤，医好也是残废。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Genocide in Stock Market

I couldn't find a better word to describe what i saw in the stock market. Genocide... certainly an appropriate word. Look at the badly battered stocks...I almost couldn't recognise some of them... When was the last time we saw Cosco below $2??? The chart looks damn familiar.... it looks like a dessert which i long time no eat... Ice KaChang... hearsay Bedok interchange sell the best?

I covered my Dow and HSI shorts on Tuesday to reduce my risk exposure while still keeping noble grp. Technically this stock looks "holland" to me and what's more, with the market paying alot of attention to oil and commodities weakness, it will cap any rebound and aid in the sell-down. If you have followed my blog long enough, you know my style is to stick with the trend. It is quite obvious that this is a bear market and a downtrend. The only time which had me second guessing is during the june to july period where market is trading sideways, and the breakout to either direction have everyone guessing. Since the day it broke 3k, the risk/reward favour short positions. That is the direction I have been trading since then. CFD is very convenient nowadays and as a market technician, you should make use of this tool. If you are only waiting to long... then you would have miss out on great opportunity to profit from the bear market. If you want to find out more about using CFD to short, check back at this blog, because i may organise a CFD workshop.

Banking stocks cracked, today really is heavy dumping accross the board. Those who wish to pick up dividend plays, this maybe a good time, however, whether dividend will reduce or not, it's anybody's guess. The sector to watchout for will be Marine, this sector is cyclic in nature, hence once over, may take a few years to come back. Looking at the share price, there could be more room to fall.

I did a screen with XPertTrader, a couple of bullish divergence is spotted. The relief rebound everybody is waiting for maybe near. But question is, do you want to trade against the current trend? For me, i may let the market rebound and then short stocks which i have shortlisted at resistances. Meanwhile, i'm happy to ride noble grp and then trade hsi and dow. Forex was also on my radar, but i feel abit too stretched to monitor too many markets at the same time. Hence i prefered indices over forex. Also, although at ChartNexus, we are allowed to trade during office hours, i cannot neglect my work. Hence position trading is more suitable for me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A beary volatile market

Hello all! It's been quite some time since i last shared. Basically nothing exciting going on and that's why i didn't post. I am still the same, holding on to shorts and no longs for me. Cut my oceanus the next day after the breakdown and keep my noble shorts. Now i am also holding a short on dow at 11,420 level. Other than that, i too suspect we may be near a bottom and ripe for a rebound. The thing to watchout for is whether we continue to break new low. Indicator though is showing bullish divergence, but let's not forget indicator is lagging and classical T.A should take precedence. If you have been following the market, yes it is volatile. One day up one day down. That's why we must form an opinion on the market direction and stick to it. Trading in and out is sure going to kill the amateur's account.

The thin market of August is over and we are seeing increasing volume. Bad news is, stocks are being hammered out of daylight. But is this even surprising? Of course not. Smart traders would know that we can just short. Any rebound, wait for it to hit resistance and short again. There are many ways to determine resistance. Make sure you know them all.

During this time, i am also working on importing trading rules into XPertTrader library. Very soon, users will get to enjoy Elder's triple screen trading system! But if u ask me, i prefer classical analysis versus system trading. I enjoy the art of forming market opinion and trade it. Also the position trading and adjusting that my shifu shared with me years ago. It gives me great satisfaction whenever i profited from my correct opinions.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.