Offshore sails again

Offshore stocks moved again... Interesting... time for me to look at banks and properties.. Remember I did mentioned about sector rotation? It seems like the market may be taking turns to rotate.. The only thing i am cautious about is that the primary trend is a down trend and we ought to pay attention to those resistances overhead. Frankly speaking... i am not really interested in turning long on stocks based on the fundamentals. Hence as of now, even if i have to buy, i won't load up heavy on long positions prefering to be cautious. This is because when the trend turns, it turns very fast these days.

As shared in a blog entry earlier in the month, if i see offshore moves, it may mean the market may head higher. Things i want to see happen, offshore companies break their highs and this is where i will look into property and bank sector for opportunities. Otherwise looking at other sector may not have the right gearing effect.

Volume is slowly creeping higher from 200 million to 600 million.... I think everyone is hoping for next week when the market begins the year 2009. Keep your eyes open to the regional indices for clues.... remember, STI will NEVER lead the global markets.

Happy New Year! Decipher wishes all readers a happy and a bountiful 2009 ahead..... Huat arh!

Thank you for your support all these years, without you, this blog will never be so interesting.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Updates on market directions

The trading volume of the past 2 sessions were light due to the holidays. Any activities on the charts should be ignored. If chart formations is of any use, you should see plenty around. The volume characteristic is very convincing... was it coincidence that the light volume can be attributed to the festive season? Check out the few index charts that i am following:

Hang Seng Index: The ascending triangle pattern is taking form and I should not miss the breakout if it happens. We all know China is working very hard to pump up the economy and boy do they have money... although what they are doing may not immediately solve all the problems, but, it is how market respond to the news/actions by the government in the immediate time frame that matters to me. If the uptrend support cracks, then those 2 previous lows maybe where we can go long.

As for Dow, KLSE, SGX, really... there isn't much to observe about. Even the small pennant on STI is only good as a warning. It is too small and narrow to be of any significant movement. Let us not forget, budget day has been brought forward to Jan'09 and thus it may prop the market higher. I recall back in 2006... when we were having elections... we had a good run up to the election day while the rest of the world tumbled. After election day, STI made up for it's absence by jumping off the cliff like a bird without wings... This may be something to watchout for.

Oh by the way, 29th and 30th will be ChartNexus company off-days. We will be taking 2 days off to have fun and party hard.....of course those good food as well! keke Hence i will only check-in here at night. No matter how late... i will try my best to analyse the market... this is important to me. Because i want to make it a habit to blog. The lazy bug in me may manifest if i stop for just a day. I won't give it a chance!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Takeaways from Traders Club

I closed my positions on StraitsAsia as well as Yanlord after they both hit my profit targets and didn't go down further. Hence i'm on the hunt for the next profitable opportunity. At the Traders Club Christmas Party... we went through the following observations, STI has a bearish pennant, Offshore seems to be supported... and of all the banks, OCBC has the best risk/reward... Cosco & KS energy looks to be forming a base... Guys, it isn't the stock picks that made Traders club a must-attend event... it is the how to analyse that is more important and valuable. Just like what i told a prospect... he told me no money, win first then attend training... a friend of mine R said the same thing... The customer after hearing just one important sentence from me, became a customer. How many more thousands are u going to lose before you give up? He got stuned... he must be thinking, how come i knew... of course i knew! i have been through it myself. If you don't know something, you ought to learn... how can u say let me find a lawyer job first before i study law... let me jump into the water first before i learn how to swim...

Offshore movement is key here, if they start another leg up, do watchout for banks and properties again... Friday's closing my set tone for last trading week of the year. Christmas Eve's closing may not mean anything as the volume is very light to have any significance.

I did something which i haven't been doing regularly for the longest time... that is to give back to society. I intend to do it in 2 forms... my time as well as monetary... I had been too caught up with the little noise in my head....why am i not making loads of money... why am i so busy... why my life so miserable... i think the infrequent updates on this blog clearly shown that i have not been myself for most of 2008. The Decipher that went into a coma.... but i'm back! Trust me when i say i am enjoying sharing and trading all over again... huat arh! By the way, the ultimate graduates gathering should be during Chinese New Year.... keep a lookout!

To continue on my "give"... i shall help as many people as possible through my analysis of the stock market here in this blog as well as the graduates of ChartNexus at our events and at the graduates only forum. As for Monetary, i am giving to the charity of my choice Children's Cancer Society of Singapore. : ) Since i have the ability to trade successfully, i shall do my bit to make this planet a better place for the less fortunate. Gosh... kids... they are really an innocent bunch to be suffering.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

The loving feeling....

Ah.... the loving feeling is back.. the sweet profit from HSI sent me to cloud nine... my patience paid off handsomely when it went down to more than 1000 points in 2 days. Ahh... the last time i had a wonderful time trading HSI was in 2006.... back then i was using warrants and this time round, i used CFD which is a better instrument to use than warrants. This is because using warrants, we need to pay attention to strike price, premium, theta and delta... CFD simply bet up or down.

Since the trading week is short, i shan't increase my position in stocks. Rather, i may look to long or short on the index for the immediate term. My screening reveals that the volume traded today is still very light. Even in the forex market, currencies are moving in a tight range... this is almost the last week of the year, perhaps many traders have closed book for the year. Watch what happens after Christmas... it should set the tone for the last week of the year and any spillover to January should be scrutinised.

Decipher wishes you a Merry Christmas and a huat huat good time in the market!

Christmas is a time to share and care. I have chosen to donate my well wishes to the Children Cancer Society. Though the amount is not big, ahh well... since universe bestowed me the ability to trade and inspire, i have to give back in return. If the purpose of life is to add value to other people's life... it's a rich feeling!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

DBS Scare

The rights issue by DBS inflicted damage to the morale. The worse part is i just blew away my position because of the sudden trading halt. Remember i was beoing DBS at $9... my sell stop has been there getting ready for such a day... mana zai, shortly after lunch, i was told DBS issue rights and the stock price has plunged. I logged on and thought this time tua ho say... i remembered telling myself not to be greedy and must cover back because for CFD, i ain't sure about the implication from a rights issue. HOWEVER!!! by the time i logged on, my buy stop was triggered and the system had taken my loss on DBS when it trades higher after the gap down. What a big disppointment otherwise it was a great day for me!

My shorts swing into profits with HSI leading the way with a 500 points tank. When i saw capitaland tanks, i think i am more than right about the direction of the market and procastinated on adding to my shorts. I hold back. This is a short trading week and volume is expected to be light and thus the market can swing either way wildly. I already have 3 short positions and i don't feel safe adding to my shorts.

Midas came out from the screening result. and my sentiment screen tells me the trading volume today is suspiciously light. Not a time to be too bearish.... but still i would like to know why HSI was gunned down maliciously.... although not that i am complaining.. keke

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Automobile's rescue plan priced in

Alot of us may have forgotten that after the senate rejected the bailout for the big 3, bush already came out and said he will do his best to save them. The market first tanked after news leaked out about how the big 3 may run out of cash. Then bush's assurance came and that saved the bulls. I know because i was short the market... maddening!! hahaha Hence last Friday's rescue plan didn't send the market into a rally.... i could understand why. Just look at the news, isn't it easy? When market goes up, it will give bullish reasons, when it comes down, it will say market again focuses on economic woes. As a friend of mine put it.... financial world is actually an illusion, you choose to see what you want to see.... hahaha

At closing on Friday, i added Yanlord short after I spotted the shooting star on the daily chart as well as resisted by the 100-day MA. My opinion of a weak closing was right and thus i follow through with my plan. Anyway a screen by XPertTrader revealed that properties are hitting into resistance. Hence i have a total of 3 short positions in the market right now.... StraitsAsia, Yanlord & HSI. My wish for Monday morning is that Nikkei focuses on the weak closing and the rally which fizzled out on Dow.

A friend checked with me almost daily on "have i covered my straitsasia". Maybe he is reading this entry. keke I explained.... let ur profits ride and cut ur losses fast. This process has been internalised. That's why you see i rather cut my capitaland rather fast and now since i am in profits, i ride. My rationale is, if i am right about the direction, StraitsAsia will continue to go lower which means my profit will swell. If i am wrong, i earn less. If i just take my profits just because it has went to my favour today then how to grow money? Alot of times, i have seen people trading by the day... buy today, tomolo up just sell... then come down a little, buy... then stuck... then avg down... then continue to get stuck... ahhh.... if this is familiar to u... then it's time u wake up.. keke Focus on DIRECTION rather than daily fluctuations. Intra-day is even worse.... countless of people keep asking me about live data... i found it wierd... if these people has been making consistently good money from end of day data... why don't they imrpove on their position sizing and money mgmt instead? Why do they want to take more risk by trading intra-day? It's worse if they believe money can only be made in intra-day charts than daily charts. Alexander Elder in his book wrote about it before.... those who can't manage daily chart will be slaughtered by the intra-day charts.


Capitaland

6pm now... i am counting down to a brand new week! Huat arh! So far so good... ever since i started to work hard... pocket also grew... keke Haiyo.... why i so lazy for the past few months??? Maybe can tan more! keke Actually blogging not bad ma... can share my trading experience and try to help as many beginners as possible...then at the same time, by writting, i am actually re-inforcing my thoughts. It is easy to think inside the head, but if you write it down, it's a completely different feeling. Try it! such is trading... there will bound to be losses... there will be wins.. now i'm in high spirit... haha last few weeks.. when i keep losing... so frustratings... Welcome to the world of trading!


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Properties back in favour

Properties counters staged a strong rally today. However not all of them has got good volume. Fundamentals are still bad without saying... but technically indeed they were attractive... attractive to short! haha Many of them broke out of resistance...but they are close to MA resistances. Then when to long? AT THE RETRACEMENT! In a bullish trend, they are called retracement, otherwise it;s called reversal... just got to be patience and keep observing. Look? who cares if you can buy at rock bottom? This is not how the game is played. I never got Cosco at below $1... i got it at $1.31 and rode it to $3++ .... I didn't get Swiber less than $1... infact i bought at $1.23 and rode it all the way to $3++ It's the direction that i am more obsessed with. For i know, once the direction is clear... it's easy to make money! Those who gave up and think they come back when the trend returns often gets in too late....and lose all the money when the trend turns against them... those who faithfully do their homework will be rewarded.

I did not add to my shorts as i observed many stocks didn't go down much. No doubt StraitsAsia went down alot from where i shorted, but nevertheless i cannot ignore the bottoming actions seen in many other charts and that of indices. Even currencies, i seen many of the major pairs seem to have broken the downtrend on the daily chart. Hence, i am sticking to only one short on StraitsAsia and then another short on HSI to bet the week will close negative. Year-end dressing this time round may dress like beggar maybe?

Another observation is sector rotation.... offshore took the runup last few weeks.. and this week many already stopped advancing.. If you look at Yangzijiang... wah the bearish divergence damn obvious... hence this round the properties sector rallies.... hmm... after the rotation... market go holland?


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market lukewarm to Ben's cut

Dow overnight jubilant closing failed to inspire Asia. Now, what i am most frustrating about is how goldman and JPMorgan failed to drag market lower. They reported losses! Again CPI data came in worse than expected. Yet market remains non-chalent to these... Ben has cut more than expected and market responded... or did it. If we look at Asia today, we opened up... then drift lower as thoughts about profit taking tonight prompted traders to book profits. However Nikkei and HSI closed higher in the afternoon.... ahh... always good to see market close higher at closing..

For me, step A has happened, that is Ben's cut rate, it should spur market on... however it didn't today, so instead of B happening, C is likely to happen.. C would be a pull back. To see pull back, i need to observe if broadbased stocks are coming off their resistances... i know many bank shares are off their highs.. hence if i start seeing one by one they start to appear... *dang dang dang*

YanLord: Bottomed?

No results from screening tonight... however at ChartNexus Traders Club tonight, we identified 6 stocks for trading. Tomorrow i shall see if there is any opportunities. For graduates who can't turn up, we will post it on the graduates-forum.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

"Did you sell StraitsAsia?"

Concerned friends checked with me, did i sell my StraitsAsia. Of course not, i intend to stick to my game plan. How can someone keep changing plans from day to day? What i am eyeing is significant levels. How market trades at significant levels will tell me where is the market likely to head towards. I have seen friends who trade in and out very frequently and often because the tide changes intra-day or from day to day. This type of trading will result in many small wins.... but 1 lose is good enough to wipe out those small wins. Got to think in longer time frame man.

Anyway, tuesday will see Ben meeting.. i shall keep to my short on StraitsAsia and wait to see how the market reacts to the outcome.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
CT1-short KS energy


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Dow refuses to head lower

Much to my dismay, Dow had refused to head lower. I had to cover my Dow short before i went to bed when govt came out to assure investors that they will find another alternative to save the auto mobile industry. Actually, it is better they save it as the implication may be worsed than lehmann. What about Madoff? Simply amazing.... I wonder how many rich people will be affected. If there are any implications to the economy? The econs numbers last week was as i anticipated... BAD. Hence i shorted... but once again, the resilience of the bulls saved the day as we close higher from lower. In theory, this is a text book market bottom where market ignores the bad news. But how far can this rally runs? Actually i give it 3-month shelf life or the 50-day MA or 100-day MA whichever comes first. After the third month i will turn cautious. Otherwise, i will be eyeing those resistance levels. Fed's meeting on Tuesday may be why the market is holding up. Currencies are breaking recent highs and surely on an uptrend. hmm... what's the impact of a rate cut? How will market take it? Given that we refuse to head lower. Chances are Fed will once again cut.. inorder for market to crash, i think a rate hike or unchanged or one of the car companies collapse will rock the market.






The picture on the left is a snap-shot from the new ChartNexus Training Center....conducive for those weekend classes... i think the feng shui is good, as ever since we moved, we had 3 months of sell-out courses. This new training center will also be the place where our traders club members meet. By making this investment in training facilities, all graduates from the program will have a place to gather. Like i said, i want to help as many people as i can. Either through the blog, ChartNexus forum or directly at those traders club meeting. I want to show you how easy it is to be done by sharing my thoughts and my experience.


I am also planning to meet all the old graduates way back from 2006 to 2007 Dec. There are approximately 500 of you out there whom i may have disconnected. Rest assured i forget you not... the latest course rules will be shared in a seminar where i will personally teach you on the direct applications. Just wait for my email invitation.






The favourite question i was asked recently was, is this the market bottom? Is it safe to buy now. My answer is, i don't know. How would anyone know? Even Alan greenspan said he didn't see the current financial meltdown coming...Bufett never buy at the exact bottom. And me? I'm just deciper.. your friendly neighbourhood blogger. My method is simple and consistently i have been practising it. I seek inspiration from Jesse Livermore and of course a friend whom i looked upon as mentor. Remember what did Livermore said? Ask not where the market is heading... but ask yourself, what will you do when the market gets there. Those following my blog for the longest time should find this phrase familiar... i keep talking about this since 2006. What it meant was, you must form an opinion about the market, like if A happens, B should happen, and when B happens, i hoot... then when C happens, i cut my loss or if D happens i ride my profits or if E happens I take my profits and look elsewhere. Those looking for a sure win method aka the holy grail.. you will be massively disappointed! As those of us who make money from the market knows that losses are part and parcel of the game and this is how the game is played. Lose small and win BIG! Am i worried about my Short on StraitsAsia? Hell no! If that position turn against me, it only means one thing to me, the market is going to head higher... otherwise, if market turns down from here, i will add more shorts... if market break the 52-week low, hailoya... i will hoot tua tua..


From my strategies screening, i have got 3 sell signals based on the trend-trading strategies.... guess what? I won't take the sell signals! Simply because the primary criteria is not met... and what is it?? THIS IS NOT A TRENDING MARKET! Simple! From ADX and the price range, we are in a range trade, and using a trend trading strategy now is like throwing money into the drain. In the course, we teach you when to use what strategy and this is very important!

Saw the sticks? They were actually broken arrows. This is what they call breaking the arrow using the throat...or rather the soft spot under-neath it. This was taken at the seminar i went to before i went for my holidays. A paradigm shift. I knew i need to sought inspiration... i tried to tell myself to aim for big money in trading... ahh... that should motivate me... but it only last a few weeks...then i found what i want... i want to inspire people! Each year, i will continue to learn from the gurus and experts... as the saying goes, the day you stop growing, u start dying.

That is why you see that i am blogging so much and sharing my thoughts on trading... On the left is how my late night "taxi-driving" looks like.. I hope they produce monitors that are at least 1 meter in length in the future... then spare me looking at 3 screens.. Why do i call it taxi driving? Back in the late 90s where many professionals got retrenched and many turned to taxi driving to make a living... some hold two jobs and driving taxi was a part time.... i was trading the new york market which is easily past 12 mdnight hence i termed it taxi driving... on good nights, can close shop as early as 1am.. bad nights... 3am....


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

My trading plan going forward is to ...

Finally intra-week weakness. The STI closed lower than open. It is time for the retracement to happen. However as it is Friday tomorrow, if it closed too ugly, well, the bullish rally may be over. Friday night will have alot of data coming out from the US. It may become a reason to sell down. Asia closing may provide clue. For now, i will initiate a short position first if the market is weak tomorrow. STI is hitting into 50-day resistance. We have yet cross the all important 1917 level. If the pull back is shallow, it means it's a healthy retracement. But of course we need to study the broadbase market and see are they trading at support or resistance. These are important clues. The XPertTrader rule i'm using to screen for this important clue is the volume rule i created since 2006. I used to call it the sentiment screen back in those days.

I seen a big jump in blog visitors since i returned to active sharing. Welcome back my friends! : ) I will try my best to contribute and hopefully it is helpful to you. If you have friends whom once fell in love with this blog, tell them, the owner of this blog is back. They should return and let us all grow money together!

GrowMoney Quickpick
StraitsAsia - CT1-short strategy
FSL Trust - ST1-short strategy

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Who let the BULL out?

In chinese i would have called it 牛气冲天! Wah... I was speechless by the power of the bull that hit Asian market. Dow slammed lower but Asia opened weak and then the bulls took over and drive us to close high. Beautiful and this bullishness has not been seen for months. As beautiful as it is, i wasn't part of the party as i have no long position. Infact i just cut my Capitaland yesterday and then had to scramble to take my profit on the AscendasReits short. With STI taking out the previous high, it's a very positive sign. However, pretty disappointed that the intra-week weakness was not present. Looks like dips in the morning is a good chance to buy already.

The transition period from bear to sideway to bull may be here. The next sell signal will be a tell tale sign. The plan is, if the stock doesn't goes down, it is a healthy retracement in an uptrend.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Technical Ascending Triangle on Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng Index: ADX showing change of trend, if little green line ticks up upon breakout of resistance, it may signal an ascending triangle breakout.... S-shares where are u!!!!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Burning questions answered

Today i shall share answers to the burning questions on my recent trades because i have at least 3 friends who asked the same questions. So I thought i might as well share why i did what i done.


Capitaland: Firstly i must admit my entry price was a big big mistake. If you look at the chart, i was buying in the middle of resistance and support. From general market movement, the possibility of breaking to the downside wasn't great, hence my view was Capitaland's support should hold. Hence i hold onto Capitaland and went short Ascendas reits, SIA engrg and Amazon Inc. Today Capitaland went up and was within 5 cents to my entry at 2.74 but SIA engrg and Amazon stop loss were triggered. Only Ascendas reits went lower near closing. With 30 mins to closing, I close my capitaland position for a loss and keep my ascendas short. Question number 1, why did I square off my long position despite the possibility of the market may head higher? The primary reason being, I didn't get Capitaland at a good price, look at my entry, it sucks big time and look like an amateur trade. So why did i buy in the first place? LAZINESS! I casually looked at the market and "think" it may head higher. That's why you see why am i suddenly so active in blogging and trading. I forgotten a simple fact, to make money, efforts must be there. How to retire young if I trade on laziness??? Secondly, Dow has been up for many days and trading near resistance. Probability of a retrace is higher than a rally. Hence if Dow pulls back, high chance Capitaland may open lower with the possibility of closing higher. This will give me a better chance to buy lower. Infact i am waiting for intra week weakness in an uptrend. on the indices. That to me is the safest time to buy into stocks. Avoid stocks trading too near to resistance. Hence market gives me a chance to run at small loss, i gladly take it.... because....read on....


My ascendas reits short is sitting on a 17 cts profit. If Dow goes down tonight, tomorrow it will open lower and trade lower. Judging from the volume today... MASSIVE selling. It is a bad sign for more downside to come. Then it became simpler. Because with such a massive selling, it should continue tomorrow, if it recovers tomorrow, i will anticipate a bear flag/pennant, if it does, it offers an excellent opportunitiy to add on to the shorts. Otherwise, i'm content to see it heads lower. With capland's long squared off, this is where my profit will run.

My stop loss for SIA Engrg and Amazon inc was triggered. No regrets as this is good loss. Both counters went significantly higher after my loss was triggered. Even as of now, with Dow and Nasdaq trading significantly lower, Amazon is still above my selling price. SIA Engrg is worth to follow because it's at this resistance level that i cannot resist. Furthermore, fundamentally... what's there to rally about?

So nett nett did i make money? As of now, YES! small though... i am not complaining because i could have lost more on the silly capland trade which i shouldn't have taken. Hence to have traded out of trouble and end up with a small profit, i am content. Now with only a profitable short position, i am hungry for the next trade.

I am looking for intra-week weakness to long in a bullish uptrend. For this to happen, i must see support and selling well absorbed.

No results from strategy screening. I heard some graduates have been complaining about no results from screening. The rules are stringent which means, higher probability. If anyone wants signals everyday, it means everyday i can have a rule that screens out more than 20 stocks and of which only a handful will be right. This kind of strategy will result in alot of small losses and then a few big win. Not many people will have the apitude to stand those small losses. How about you win lose half the time but when you are right, you make more? Which one in the longer term is beneficial to the psychology and the pocket? You reckon.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market heads higher despite bad numbers

A worse than expected job losses shook the market during the early trading hours but as the clock winds down, it made a spectacular U-turn to close higher. The support at 8150 hold ground. I was all ready to short more should we close below this level... I guess the automobile bail out gave some hope that most of the jobs will be saved. 8834 will be my next resistance...with a view of a stronger resistance at the round number 9k.

Looking at HSI, 15,200 to 15,800 level is where i will pick my fight. This is the resistance in which i shall wait patiently for a CS reversal. I am using daily chart here. Should HSI turns bullish or bearish from this point for a Christmas selldown or rally, the banks or insurance companies should move in tandem... using CFDs, my options are unlimited.

As for STI, as wierd as it looked, the whole week we were actually trading in a very tight range. It seems to me like something is going to happen soon. There could be more positives than negatives here as the market didn't go down on bad news. Tricky isn't it? 2 weeks ago, i saw the same strength and long capitaland only to see market tanked on me. In the same week, i hedged with Ascendas reits and on last Friday, increase my stable of shorts with SIA Engrg short. My plan is, if market were to go on a Christmas rally, I will lift my shorts and ride capland to 3.27 and this should give me a nett profit. However, if market tanks, my short positions will hedge my long on capland. The logic is simple, because when the market comes down, it moves faster. I added a short on Amazon again after it opens weak and trades lower. The only scenario that can kill my plan is the market trades sideway and not going anywhere.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
SGX: Kepcorp CT1 strategy


DISCLAIMER: The content in this website is for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

SGX Growmoney quickpicks

SGX Growmoney quickpicks
Raffles education
SIA Engrg Co.
DBS

The above stocks may be interesting to watch today. With the ang mo platform, it becomes easy to just enter sell stops and buy stops. haha then can work in peace.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Technically the stock charts look weak

HL Asia is the only stock that came out from the course strategy screening tonight. But looking at risk/reward, it doesn't favour a short. Hence i am going to give it a miss. I do hope the course graduates can also see that the risk/reward to short HL Asia is poor and thus give it a miss. My main worry is due to greed some of them may just short without considering risk/reward. Screener only picks up technical buy/sell signals, the risk/reward have to be assessed by the trader.

AscendasReits which was picked up by the screening two nights ago came down and closed at the last low of 1.16. From the volume traded, it looks likely that this level will be broken tomorrow and technically we can add to position.

Capitaland is fast becoming a high alert in my head. Somehow it felt like an alarm is going off inside the head. I have to becareful here incase it turns out to be a Descending triangle. How do i get out of this shit? One of the option i am seriously considering is to somersault my long position into a short position. Even the STI looks to be a Descending triangle if we break the last low. Awas to all long positions. If anything, unless we close higher on Friday, otherwise i am quite bearish on the market. The slew of US data will surely rock the market.

As for US stocks, after stopped out of my Amazon, this stock tonight rallied to nearly $50. It further reinforce me to be discipline and never trade without a stop loss. Otherwise tonight i will have to change the featured video to "Lang zi sin sheng".

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A peek into US Market Stock picks

6 hours to market open and from the XPertTrader screening results, i have the following stocks under microscope. My last trade on amazon triggered stop loss. Dow unexpectedly rally despite bad data. Nevertheless, tonight i'm working overtime again to grow money.

CT1-Long Strategy
THS
HRL

TT1-Short Strategy
IBKR


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Crawling my way out of the rut

This week is supposed to be volatile due to lots of data coming out from the US. A quick check on the Dow revealed that the there was a bullish divergence in macd histogram and this tells me that there is a possible rally coming up. The 600 points drop on Monday is as bearish as it seems but i do not rule out the fact that a bottom is being hammered out. If we don't go test the November low, chances are we break above 9k in December. I see RSI is going to challenge the resistance soon. I will be observing that and use that as an indication of where is the likely direction.


I wrote about how i got into a losing streak after my holidays. How do i deal with this morale dampening moment? My plan is to trade smaller size than usual. This serve 2 purposes, number 1, i can slowly gain back my momentum and increase the size when the winning streak begins. Number 2, if i continue on this losing streak, i won't hurt my capital. To stop trading totally is avoiding... which to me is the loser way. I looked back at those losing trades and realise the mistake i made. I was too complacent and lazy. I took signals easily and was too eager to make money and that lead me to choose my trades loosely. The discipline must return if i were to go back to winning ways. By the way, as far as i remember, my last losing streak was actually way back in 2006 if my memory serve me correctly.


Trades i made today plus last night incude a short position in Amazon Inc and Ascendas Reits. Both stocks triggered my TT2 short sell screening rule. Amazon is listed in Nasdaq, i am using CFD to trade which is so much simpler and easy as compared to options which i used to do. Placing the trade is relatively easy as i am already familiar with the platform. No need to choose strike price, check IV and stuffs... how cool can it be? I said i am going to hunt for all sorts of money making opportunities and i mean it. It's time i fund my lifestyle from trading. With the petroleum price decreasing and the COE coming down, it is tempting to buy a car... but i'm still resisting it unless neccessary. Somehow quite silly as i spend most of my time infront of the computer trading and charting... I don't even mind taking MRT as i can read my book during the long journey... otherwise where to find time to read or think about strategies? Anyway, i'm still holding on to my capitaland. As for the only stock pick by TT2 last night, it really came down. I hope tonight Amazon join Ascendas to head south. keke


Today i got my staff to sort out participants whom i have coached since 2006. Gosh the number is astonishing. I'm itching to organise a seminar just for these folks as they made my dreams possible. Without their support in the old days, i wouldn't have left my IT job and own a business, T.A author and trading full time. Along the years, we have fine tuned the course training and now finally came out with 6 screening strategies that made trading so much simpler. People used to ask me why i no longer conduct seminars. I feel flattered when some of the old participants are still asking about me. The truth is, with a team of trainers, we can achieve so much more. In 2008, while my team of trainers have taken my role of training, i have been working on trading strategies and how to improve the technical analysis training sessions. Most importantly, we have established a sound after-course support commited to help graduates.

For those of you who are trading US stocks, i am re-starting my engine... so the growmoney quickpick list will come soon... give me some time to find back my midas touch. : ) Best is Amazon go to $35!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A loser speaks

Look this way if you want to see how a loser is throwing money away in the stock market. Capland looked destined to be my third consecutive loss since i came back from my holidays. Though small, i don't like to lose. It made me look stupid and not respecting money. Though i know i have the ability to win, but i am human afterall.... sometimes just need to bitch about it. I recalled reading some trading books, where they talk about a bad stretch of losses is common to any trader, i think i have hit onto one. Just when i am so motivated to create wealth and abundance, i hit into this barren spell.

The worse part is, while i am undergoing this bad spell of "gong tao", I just had a little disagreement with my significant other. I shall spill the beans right here, let's see when she will ever discover this post and ask me to remove. haha Now, it all started because of choosing holidays pictures to develop and file nicely in a photo album. Sound silly isn't it to start a little argument because of this? She wanted me to decide if we are going to develop 50 or 100 pictures because the coupons she gotten is very cheap, hearsay 0.15 only for a pic. Now the thing is, they are going to expire soon and if we don't use it, she intends to give some away to friends. So she asked if we can choose the photos right now? I rejected citing i have got to study the markets and choosing pictures will take at least 1 hour. Then came the justice bao face... but the funny thing is, she knows i needed the time and hence cannot be angry with me, yet at the same time she is feeling very pissed off! keke There is a common understanding about how i need my time after marriage.. there you go... because of 50 pictures, is it worth all the negative aura in the house? Welcome to marriage life for you singles out there! haha The thing is, for me, i don't mind letting her choose what pictures she wants to develop so it makes my life simpler, but for her, it will be so sweet to choose the pictures together... Men are from mars, women are from venus. Hence i always say, it is important to seek alignment with your loved ones if you are a trader... otherwise like today, i needed time to internalise the losing streak and still need to be understanding to her. Who's there for me at a time like this? .... My trusted blog....

Hence in order not to sleep in the living room, i have to stop here for today. Check back again for market analysis.

To all the married men, cheers!

P.S if you see the contents of this post modified, it means i have to sleep on the sofa for a few days... Market bless me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market bottoming in progress?

Once again, market didn't go down further. Bad news didn't manage to flip the market over. The most important thing is higher low stood the test. With the negative DI coming down and positive DI trickling up, i would be anticipating a bullish crossover. The race is on between MAcD centerline crossover and adx bullish crossover. However, it must be noted that indicators are slower. That's why I am keen to observe how the resistance level holds up. Currently 20-day moving average is flattened and may offer some form of resistance. Another keen level is 1916. Bottoming evidences are surfacing through support and declining volume. But plenty of overhead resistances, hence the road to north will not be easy. Every resistance is still a short to me. Because the 20-day MA has flattened, shortists should watch out for a change in trend.

I started a small long position in capitaland with the view that we may visit the resistance level at 3.27. Since the price is far away from normalcy, my view is a rally may happen to return to normalcy. For this trade, i will be using a tight stop as the downside can fall back to 2.30s..

After XPertTrader screening the course strategies, it yields no high probability result. Hence the wait continues. For the benefits of those who don't know what i am talking about, these course rules covered trending stocks as well as swing trading opportunities. Hence it makes trading much simpler.



DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Outlook on STI

Let us begin this week with an outlook on STI. We all know government is coming out with plans to help us during this challenging times. Even the budget day was brought forward to January. Very swift actions. However, it is what happens in the US that counts. We are still going to be heavily influence by the market big boys like HSI, Nikkei and the cursed Dow. Back to the chart, the week ended with a bullish engulfing pattern upon Friday's closing. However there is still nothing much to cheer about on the weekly chart. Resistance level i will be watching is 1916 and the 20-day moving average. So no actions from me till I see how market trades at that level. It is important to see individual stock at their resistances level too. The double bottom on the STI looks to be happening. I like the volume behaviour and all i need is the right wing of the "W". On top of that, alot of stocks has higher low... a good sign.. maybe the relief rally which many have been hoping for is here.

As for Dow, it closed above 8k... however, the rebound last Friday may not indicate the worst is over. The only good thing i observe last week was how Asia market held their ground despite the rout in US. The BB on Dow weekly opened up. The brief rebound may be just relief....maybe a re-test of the breakout of support last week. To invalid this opinion, it must break and stay above 8k.

After my screening on XPertTrader, there were no good short signals for tomorrow. Using XPertTrader is increasingly important. I mean, more than one thousand stocks.... how on earth am i going to know which stock to trade. With those trading rules, it's like opening my eyes to those hidden signals... like rafflesMG, it doesn't appear frequently in the top volume list. But it's sell signal was picked up by TT2(course screening strategy).

After my return from holidays, in my haste(Greed), i made two bad trades. Although the loss is within the 2% risk mgmt, but still i am feeling unhappy. It seems like the pride in me has grown. I began to hate losing. But losing is part and parcel of this game which i am so familiar with. What i am doing now is trying to gain the momentum back. If you are like me, don't dispair. I have walked this path before and i know after many small losses, a big win is waiting in queue. : ) I am going to be agreessive in the coming months and amass my wealth. Day and night, i be looking for money making opportunities. Huat ah!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

StraitsAsia broke major low

I'm back! It always feel nice to take a break. This time round i was totally cut off from the market plus my handphone was turned off! :D This retreat is badly needed... This is what i have done, i registered myself and wife to a 3 day motivational seminar first before we head for the holidays. It's highly important for the significant other to understand what we are doing. Trading is unlike other profession. Sometimes we thread by the fine line of sanity. So here i am after 14 days of rest, i'm back. This time i came back with an objective. I think some time ago i blogged about how i lose interest in trading and it was a chore. Basically my short term objectives were met and i have no longer term objectives, or at least i wasn't clear. Now i have set myself new targets! I am going to read aloud my objectives in my study room, paste them infront of my 2 monitors! hooooya! Before i sleep, i will keep repeating my objectives until i drift into my dreams.... morning when i wake up, again i am going to read aloud my objective... i am just gonna be so focus in achieving it!

I like a particular post above regarding whether am i still holding on to my Cosco before i leave for my vacation. Nope, i decided not to lug around my laptop and hence square off all trading positions before i left. For the record, i covered cosco at 0.835 for a small profit. Cosco went as low as 0.760. I didn't cover there. To bull shit in this blog, i could have boasted about still owning it. But nope, that's not me. Whatever u read here are true trades and not fiction. This is me, i see it as an important point to be able to face my losses my mistakes and not care about others opinion of me. Yes i look silly in some of my trades, but who cares, so long i learn from my mistake and not make them again. Like weeks ago, I cut Synear for a small loss and Synear went crashing down next day. If i turn back the clock, i would probably still do the same. This is because the concepts and experience has been internalised. Risk management is top in my priority due to massive losses in the younger years. Hence most decisions made will not be regretted. Of course there are times when i broke my trading rules and those were the times i would starve myself from the fine things in life to compensate the losses in the trading account. It's common sense, how can i spend when i make a loss in the market? I ought to punish myself.

Lai, today's market volume wasn't too great. A quick screen with XPertTrader shows that the heavy sell-off only occurs in some stocks. Many experts are calling a bottom. Well, let us see how the previous low is tested. Fundamentally, i'm still trying to absorb all the news... a bit slow and retarded at the moment...

StraitsAsia is my top study tonight. The way it broke the previous low, oooooh... bad news! However it may be too late to short now... let us wait for a re-test of the support turn resistance.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

News is out, Obama wins, Sell on news?

The market rebound for the sixth day and we are right at resistance. Infact alot of stocks are near resistance. This was the sign i'm looking for to open new short position and thus i chosen Cosco for a start. Actually I am going for a 12-day holiday from Friday onwards and it is to my best interest not to take any more position. However, i hate to miss opportunities as today, the market is at this wonderful pivotal point and the risk reward is good. October was a bad month for global market, however i made substantial profits from the strategic short positions in prop sector. That's why i am risking this profit on Cosco. Even when i'm wrong, the stop loss on Cosco will only cost me a small part of the profits.

I'm still contemplating on whether to lug my laptop along..... it's a holiday afterall.... if i trade, then mana holiday? hahaha At the same time, it looks likely the turning point of the market is near, either long or short.... i may lose the opportunity to long at the next higher lows..... Dilema...

Cosco: Candlestick weakness couple with MA resistance

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Profits kept inside warm warm pocket for shorts

The strong rebound caught my eye. I promptly took my short profits on HKLand as well as Yanlord. I do not believe the market can go down one straight line to 1200 where i eye the major support. With such a hefty fall, i no believe government will not do anything. Anyway it is good profits and the stocks have tested the support. Now that i have no more trading positions in the market. It's time to identify those resistance levels and ambush the bull. Participate in this rebound? I will only consider if the resistance is broken.

Market expects Ben to cut the rate to below 1%. The impact of the last cut was lukewarm, hence to bring the rate below 1% may or may not be welcomed by the market. The reaction of the market after the cut will be key to determine the next direction.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Selling into strength

The pattern in recent weeks seems to be selling into rallies. I observed many stocks hit their resistance and fell back. In November Issue of Smart Investor, i wrote that this market has got no confidence. I also observed many stocks are in a nice downtrend, even the index is going down nicely. However, there was a suspension of shorting through my ang mo platform. I called them up and they told me an email will be sent to inform me when we can use the platform to short the Singapore stocks again. With 3 short positions, adding to short was not my priority so i couldn't care less. Initially i thought it was banned by exchange, but another brokerage house can still short. So i let it pass.

Today took my profits from UOL and prefered to ride on Yanlord and HKland instead. I am not comfortable with 3 shorts because STI is near the 1800 level. My friend advised me to be wary of a big rebound near this level which may squeeze my profits. It's always good to be taking profits on the way down. Just as in the bull market, i also take my profits on the way up. Risk management!

Recently, the course screening rule known as the TT2 short was making waves among the graduates because of the high probability. If you think you want to find out more about this rule, just go to www.chartnexus.com/events and join one of the previews.


CapitalMall: Another stock picked by TT2.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Neither long nor short

I screened the market with XPerTrader on Sunday night and observed that many stocks are in an extended downward movement. To add to shorts here will be more risk than reward as most resistance are far above. Today the market went bullish and most stocks are moving upwards. Now, is it time to long? For me, i would not participate in this rebound as yet. My guess is, most of the stocks could be forming bear flags or are retesting their resistance. It is at this resistance we will know if the bulls are stronger or the bears and subsequently choose our side of the battle. I have patience to wait, but i fear market may not have the strength to test the resistance and falls first. Last Friday, I just added another short position on UOL while keeping my yanlord. I thought a bear flag is in the making... I know i am wrong if it breaks the flag.


HKLand: Resume of downtrend?

Meanwhile, do you guys know what is dang dang dang dang?



DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

China Shares Scandals rock the market

I would be blind not to record this in this trading diary of mine. FerroChina, was viewed as one of the titan of the S-shares could not repay a loan. In this bear market, many scandals and negative corporate news has surfaced from S-shares.... i have long doubted the quality of those companies listed in our bourse. I mean why are the best listed in HK market? US market? So those that list in Singapore? Another observation is many of those china shares are fast becoming penny shares... look at Hongxin... one by one they were being shot down... mercilessly... sino-env, synear, jiutian, cosco, yzj, so many of them! With the current bad news on Ferro and China Dye, it should drive more fear into investors. Especially those who were sold stories about how good these china shares are.

That's why today i choose to short yanlord at $1. My view is, it is a lower high and there is no incentive for S-shares to rally for now. Confidence will be at a low after the scandals. Furthermore, property sector in China... is it still booming? My guess is the rally to $1 from it's all time low was due to the interest rate cut. However, fundamentals effect is slow and sentiment will drive the stock price for now.

They blamed shortist for the turmoil but hey they banned shorting and look? It's worse than before the ban. They are obviously no longer in control. Concerted interest rates cut, Bail out plan approval, ban shorting... nothing works anymore. When nothing works anymore... how will the market moves up? I think the important thing for now is to find an edge... anticipate which news is going to bolster the market's confidence and act on it.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Will Concerted efforts salvage the situation?

News is out, concerted efforts to cut interest rate by major central banks. This is the action that i have been wary about. It always happen. The more i am in this trade, the more experience i gets. Hence when similar situation happens, i know what to anticpate. True i miss out the greatest plunge in history by covering my shorts early. I looked back, would i have done the same? No. After covering capland, cosco, yanlord, plus the profits from my HSI trades, i should not covered all my shorts. With the profits in my account, i would be only risking my profits if i hang on to my noble shorts and leave a trailing stop. This is a simple rule in trading, risking profits to make bigger profits. Something i was so used to doing yet this round, i miss a great chance to make more money. Is this greed? No i think this is a chance for me to reflect and remind myself to be always sharp. Perhaps dabbling in forex took my focus away from my positions. After some months in forex, i find that it is indeed more difficult than stocks. There are carrying trades unwinding to look out for, economy data which may swing the currency up and down, oil price affecting la,... if u realise, it's the same for stocks... however the difference is, for stocks, it moves slower and hence if you are slow in reacting, it's more forgiving. When comes to forex, if you are slow, you end up run over by a lorry!

Today i have sinned. Like many, I saw that the market had a strong rally during the afternoon session. No one knows what happened, but my guess is, the concerted efforts that i am wary about may have happened - concerted efforts. Hence i went long on HSI but within 30 mins, i was stopped out. Itchy fingers.. keke Anyway, how the market reacts to the concerted efforts is more important. If market moves down instead of up to cheer the move, it means we are going to see new low. If the market cheers the move, it means we could have seen a temporary bottom and hopefully we have a sustained rally. The key thing here is to recognise entries into the rally.
Next is where are the resistance to short. Even scooby doo will be able to sniff the low level of confidence in the market currently.


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bailout plan no big deal

After being rejected, the bailout plan finally got approved for the second time. When i was long S&P, my anticipation was a reactive rally to the approval. I was wrong. The market did a sell on news to close the week negative. 10,000 level may be tested in coming days. Althought the bailout plan was approved, the slew of economic data that came last week were bad. Even oil fell below US$90.... then.... why on earth are we going to have a 20% increase in electricity bills for??? Tey say is because of forward something... then throw out some terms which nobody understands? It's like when someone ask me how fast is Ferarri, i answered, because of the 0.55 mm diameter of the cylinder, it can combust the air and fuel better.... What the heck! Anyway, if it's forward, econ data pointing to slow down, GDP forecase is down, Oil price is down, How come going forward it's going up???

I sold my Synear after it doesn't go down despite broadbase market is going down. The logic is simple, Synear may not be the stock that will lead the downfall. Those that were going down are local bluechips. After throwing out Synear, i am all ready for the next chance to short. Currently most of the stocks are languishing near their support levels... i will exercise patience in waiting at resistance for a good risk / reward entry.

Now for stocks, many have completed the "Ice Kachang" formation. I will be particularly interested in bluechips over china shares. The best option is to have more exposure to bluechips than to S-shares.

Currently at ChartNexus, we are prepaing to move to a new training center. The first ChartNexus Traders Club will meet up at this new training center. The 4 hour session will cover market direction, sector analysis and stock picks. I'm sure this is what our graduates have been waiting for! :D

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Double blows to the bulls

As many would have guessed, how can there be no bailout plan? The bailout plan is 90% complete pending approval now. The market took a double blow when another big bank ought to sell some assets to Citi and then over at europe side, a couple of banks have to be rescued. This is evidence that the credit crunch has spread.... all we need is one such case in Asia and we might see more blood. Even HK dai kor HSI also ozzes blood today... 4% hor... no joke. My view of a short term rebound due to the bail out package seems to be too optimistic. Even the bullish divergence looks to be negated by the selling today. But! As we draw closer to the previous low, the better.... coz' technically a bottom formation may be formed.

Currently i am enjoying the ang mo platform alot... it gives me so much options! I am both into stocks and forex and index... wah if not for my limited brain cells, i would have monitored commodities too!

Continue to hold Synear... what i need is tainted dumpling over here! keke

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Buffett's US$5B inspired Asia

Asia opened positive and closed higher encouraged by Buffett's overnight US$5B purchase of goldman sachs. I was stopped out of my S&P long overnight. Did i turn long? Not yet... i still ain't see resistance broken yet. The way where market fell from resistance with high volume yesterday may suggest strong hands unloading. To be sure, the next time we are at resistances, the selling will come with heavy volume yet again.

Friday is the dateline of the bailout plan. Currently the market is undecided with neither the bulls nor the bears dare to take much risk. The bailout plan can cause the market to swing either way.... i am keeping a lookout and watching how market is anticipating the move.

Again most of the prices are in the middle of nowhere, during this volatile times, it is prudent to wait for the price at significant levels.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls tried but failed

Isn't it scary? The wild wild swing continue after an unexpected triple digit loss in wall street. I read this selling as a dangerous sign. Reason being, it could be strong hands unloading at pop up in a typical bear market. A clear sign will be another test of this level, and the stock refuse to move up with heavy volume. This is where i will try to initiate short positions. Otherwise, i will see how the pull back is trading and look for opportunities to go long. Even SGX is getting tougher with naked shortists. I hope they leave CFDs alone... otherwise we will be like KLSE and JSX... can only long and not short.

Currently i long a S&P contract at 1220 level. If i am right, i will see 1250 soon before 1280... Synear short looks safe for now, and anyupside, i think will be capped. Despite the tainted milk scandal, ChinaMilk is still resilient. I wonder why hasn't it been a shortist target? Or isit because it is too obvious?

As for local stocks, i am still looking at marine sector to have a go.... a pity, Cosco went for a diving trip way too early... This week we will have a couple of key econ data which can move the market. It is also important to observe market's reaction to the data.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Grand Stand Finish

Now even US ban shorting 799 US banking stocks following UK's actions. China declare they will buy the 3 main bank stocks with their funds. Read the news, so many pieces of news suggest the government will not let the banking system fails and rightly so. Remember i was also a shortist, but i gladly give up some profits and cheer this intervention by strong hands. Really, so what if i make from my shorts and see world economy goes down? Let's hope with Paulson's 700B proposal, the rut can stop and let us recover from there.

Short term wise, no doubt there will be a rally, any weakness looks like a buy to me. But one must be nimble. I will be wary for any strong hands distributing on the way up. The positive divergence adds strength to this rally. So when to buy? What to buy? I still prefer to wait for a pull back before deciding. Surely i will not short stocks for now. If the world is working hard to make it happen, either you join them, or you get the hell out of their way!

I covered my noble shorts on Friday and keep my synear short. The profits from the recent short positions will allow me to sit on synear until proven wrong.

2 Oct is the date where the ban on shorting will be lifted. Guys, remember now, supply and demand. Now they have ban shorting, it means they are tightening supply, demand will drive stocks up. But my point is, if everyone is buying and buying and price goes higher and higher... who is selling to them? There maybe an avalanche of selling once we tip the scale on the demand side.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Central bankers rescue the market yet again

Sinking my bum onto the sofa, CNBC blasting away on TV, today i choose my battle ground in the living room. All i am interested from the news now is facts and not opinons from analysts or gurus. If you realise, non of them saw AIG or Lehman coming.....As a trader, it is our job to observe how the market is reacting to the facts and that is how we formulate trading ideas. This will ensure we will be in control when chaos breakout. Remember i was liquidating my short positions as the market head lower to avoid risk as i see the probability of a rebound higher than going lower. Look, unlike a bull market, when the market tanks too fast too furious, there is always a risk of government intervention. While they can let the market rise all it wants, but when it comes to going down, they are not going to sit aside and do nothing. Just like how Fed had to save AIG and giving up Lehman. A shortist's nightmare is when strong hands come in and squeeze the air out of them!

This is the second time central bankers pump in money to stabilise financial markets. It only goes to show how bad the situation is. It is already one year and we are just as bad if not worse off as compared to one year ago when this subprime mess first headlined. Back to my covered shorts before the crash, if i have another chance with the same situation, i probably do the same. My profit target had reached, i had to adjust my exposure. Although all along my analysis is we are going down, but i never saw this big crash coming to be honest. Question now is, what to do going forward? I know exactly where i am going to short again.... i also know what to look out for if this is a bottom and exactly where i will long. Remember my ang mo shifu said, "Ask not where the market is heading but what are you going to do when the market gets there". So do i feel sad now that i have miss the big crash because i covered my dow too early? I am in this business too long to be affected by all these. The idea is to stay profitable consistently. I am quietly happy to be surviving this bear market as compared to the one in year 2001 where i became a "forced" investor. I think the worse kind of market participant is the kind who win in bull market and then lose it all in a bear market.... year after year.

Yes, i was making money profiting from the downside. But it was not as happy as when i was profiting from a bull market. My mind wanders to my dad's description of how during the last financial crisis, people were queing up at ATM to withdraw all the money for fear of bank collapse. I was probably too young to realise the impact at that time. But now even as i stare at the bearish chart of DBS, i am happy to see a shorting opportunity but at the same time, what if i am right and DBS really go down big time and come out in the news with bad exposure to Lehman and more? My paltry profit is nothing compare to a total financial breakdown which will affect everyone around me. I cannot see myself cheering for a total annihilation of banking sector. Just like when the hurricane was blowing accross US, i was short Dow & HSI... i was so happy that the wind is destructive...my profits in my short positions grew as the wind blew stronger. I was actually cheering for a powerful disaster. Inhuman, people's homes were destroyed, lives were lost, and here i am cheering just because i am making money out of this natural disaster. I feel wierd. Hence, although i know no matter how they try to bail out, the damage is done, but i support any efforts to stabilise the market for the good of everyone. Stock market is the first level of leverage in the financial arena, if it crashes, it will cause a domino effect.

Today's miracle is something familiar to Aug'07. Then, Fed decreased the discount coupon rate. Market then rally for 2 months before crashing. This time round it will be useful to know where the resistances are and get your CFD ready once again. Over the last 2 days, i was so tempted to short more in the market. I had to hold myself from commiting. I checked the charts, we are too far away from resistances for any good risk/reward trade and the market has tanked too much and may rebound....surely i don't want to be a squeezed shortist.

This market, in chinese, i only have these to say: 不死也受重伤，医好也是残废。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Genocide in Stock Market

I couldn't find a better word to describe what i saw in the stock market. Genocide... certainly an appropriate word. Look at the badly battered stocks...I almost couldn't recognise some of them... When was the last time we saw Cosco below $2??? The chart looks damn familiar.... it looks like a dessert which i long time no eat... Ice KaChang... hearsay Bedok interchange sell the best?

I covered my Dow and HSI shorts on Tuesday to reduce my risk exposure while still keeping noble grp. Technically this stock looks "holland" to me and what's more, with the market paying alot of attention to oil and commodities weakness, it will cap any rebound and aid in the sell-down. If you have followed my blog long enough, you know my style is to stick with the trend. It is quite obvious that this is a bear market and a downtrend. The only time which had me second guessing is during the june to july period where market is trading sideways, and the breakout to either direction have everyone guessing. Since the day it broke 3k, the risk/reward favour short positions. That is the direction I have been trading since then. CFD is very convenient nowadays and as a market technician, you should make use of this tool. If you are only waiting to long... then you would have miss out on great opportunity to profit from the bear market. If you want to find out more about using CFD to short, check back at this blog, because i may organise a CFD workshop.

Banking stocks cracked, today really is heavy dumping accross the board. Those who wish to pick up dividend plays, this maybe a good time, however, whether dividend will reduce or not, it's anybody's guess. The sector to watchout for will be Marine, this sector is cyclic in nature, hence once over, may take a few years to come back. Looking at the share price, there could be more room to fall.

I did a screen with XPertTrader, a couple of bullish divergence is spotted. The relief rebound everybody is waiting for maybe near. But question is, do you want to trade against the current trend? For me, i may let the market rebound and then short stocks which i have shortlisted at resistances. Meanwhile, i'm happy to ride noble grp and then trade hsi and dow. Forex was also on my radar, but i feel abit too stretched to monitor too many markets at the same time. Hence i prefered indices over forex. Also, although at ChartNexus, we are allowed to trade during office hours, i cannot neglect my work. Hence position trading is more suitable for me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A beary volatile market

Hello all! It's been quite some time since i last shared. Basically nothing exciting going on and that's why i didn't post. I am still the same, holding on to shorts and no longs for me. Cut my oceanus the next day after the breakdown and keep my noble shorts. Now i am also holding a short on dow at 11,420 level. Other than that, i too suspect we may be near a bottom and ripe for a rebound. The thing to watchout for is whether we continue to break new low. Indicator though is showing bullish divergence, but let's not forget indicator is lagging and classical T.A should take precedence. If you have been following the market, yes it is volatile. One day up one day down. That's why we must form an opinion on the market direction and stick to it. Trading in and out is sure going to kill the amateur's account.

The thin market of August is over and we are seeing increasing volume. Bad news is, stocks are being hammered out of daylight. But is this even surprising? Of course not. Smart traders would know that we can just short. Any rebound, wait for it to hit resistance and short again. There are many ways to determine resistance. Make sure you know them all.

During this time, i am also working on importing trading rules into XPertTrader library. Very soon, users will get to enjoy Elder's triple screen trading system! But if u ask me, i prefer classical analysis versus system trading. I enjoy the art of forming market opinion and trade it. Also the position trading and adjusting that my shifu shared with me years ago. It gives me great satisfaction whenever i profited from my correct opinions.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market volume drying up

Guest probably made a very good point on how much one can make if he keeps getting in and out of the market... win only a few bids but when lose, hold until blood ozzles out. That's why i prefer position trading, where trades are done at important technical levels. Then we take profit by huge chunk and cut loss when it's small. This is key to be sucessful in trading. Over the past year, i have tried forex too. This explains why i wasn't around most of the time. However, i must say, i didn't enjoy trading forex as it takes up too much of my time. Stocks though slow which also means more forgiving when one is complacent in trading. If you dare try being complacent when trading forex, prepare for a big hole in your pocket.

Oceanus looks to be in trouble with the weak closing today, only consolation is the volume is not on the high side. Support has been broken and i do not like this stock anymore. Was in a meeting this afternoon and missed the closing, otherwise i would have just dumped. The good news is, noble may be on the way down. The plunge in oil price helped to soften the commodities prices and this seems to be the current trend of the market. Yes, forget earnings.... currently financial woes, oil price and commodities are the drivers of this market. Decipher them wrongly and u may end up at the wrong side of the trade.

It is interesting to note that the market volume over the past few sessions is very light, less than 1 billion shares traded per day. HSI is back above 21k and nikkei is below 13k. STI is slightly above 2700. These are the levels which we may be searching for clues of market bottom. Right now, i still do not see them as yet. At most is only a rebound play which i am not interested in. Then to short? Sure, we can do that when support is broken.

Lastly, pardon me for the English here. I am blasting away on the keyboard to share my thoughts and ideas that being grammatically right or spelling errors free is last thing i bother. Furthermore, if you are like me, looking at the market most of the time, it is a lonely job and most of the time, i am talking to myself inside the head formulating scenarios to trade, i too get tongue tied at times when talking to people.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls and bears trade blow for blow

I was taken for a ride last week literally. Well, i was really on the way to KL for a meeting because the first National Investors Symposium is 3 weeks away and there are some stuffs to tie up. My profit in HSI swung from over $900 bucks to just $50 over 2 days. And guess what? after i took my profit, market went down again. I re-examined my decision, yes if i have "yue guang bao he" aka time machine, i would still do the same. 21k did broke and i was waiting for it for quite sometime and acted. The rebound came unexpectedly and the intensity is something not within my expectations. Hence i would still have taken my profits. Though it is frustrating, but this is exactly how i would have done it the second time. No choice, this is market. It is watching me, it will try it's very best to trip me in my quest for wealth. I have long been used to it. I too took profit on my yanlord shorts on Wednesday. With the profits built up from cashing in from my recent shorts, i continue to hold oceanus long and my noble shorts. Noble has been threatening to break higher. The sudden surge in oil price nearly spark a commodities counter rally. However on the technical side, Noble still has yet to break the resistance.

With many of my positions squared off, i am looking forward to take up some new positions. I observed that STI may have hit bottom at around 2700. Ben should keep rate unchanged and US may rally for a few days, but financial storm ain't over yet, thus may drag the US market. But HSI seems to be leading STI recently. Both indexes are trading near their important support levels.... both clinging on to their dear life. Hence, i will place my efforts more on the chart of HSI. 21k remain a psychological support. Let us observe how HSI trades there.... is there more buying? or is there more selling...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Support cracked under pressure

Ok ask me a seond time, isit painful to have missed FerroChina... YES! haha This market is really seriously going down. Solid results also no one cares anymore. The theme is like to sell sell and sell! I feel that it was really bearish when a good heavy volume buy up 1 week ago has no follow through. What we got is only an almost and equally heavy volume sell down. It fits the saying "Jack up to unload".

STI and HSI both cracked their support. I went short on HSI near closing using CFD. My view is, this week, HSI should close under 21k. There seems to be little incentive to hold up. Especially when results couldn't stir buying interest, what else can? Dow's performance has been largely ignored. If Dow's rally doesn't cheer Asia, what will happen if dow crashes? Or maybe if Dow continues to head higher, Asia will go lower?

Banks are still holding up... maybe base on rotation, they will be next? Watch those support levels man... this information may also be used to time entries on simsci as i also observed it has been pretty weak.

Now how about this is a bull trap to kill all shortists? I have my doubts on this. Like i have mentioned before, it was more obvious to see that any rally was shortlived. The most important clue was how we got sold down at resistance with high volume and then proceed to break support.

GrowMoney QuickPick
Tat hong
First Resources

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

2 hardest things to do in trading

Guess what are the 2 most difficult things to do in trading? Taking profit and cutting loss. Of course the latter is what caused the fall of many people. I took my shorts profits on FerroChina at 1.28 as it was going to report results the same evening and i thought the result will be fantastic and judging from the way how the support is holding well, I chosen to keep my profits. Friday at opening bell, indeed it gaps up.... but the closing was very very weak and it closed at the low! If only i have the guts to stay put.... yes the big "if" word.. this word will cause alot of complacency in trading if allowed to manifest in the trader. If you ask me, do i feel the pain missing out on FerrorChina? Answer is no. Because i decide what i want to feel. In trading, you got to be decisive and not overly hesistant. This somehow has also slipped into how i lead my life and quite alot of times, i cannot stand people around me. Alas, what i do in trading cannot be applied to handling human beings and this really frustrates me at times as i have to put up with people's nonsense.

I use an interesting perspective to respect this part of the universe. That is, the law of universe states that, everyone is an individual and will think and behave differently.. This is also how the stock market is! There are bound to be losers, people who participated in the stock market just to lose money! Amazing isn't it? Most of the people participated in the market hoping to learn just that one golden method and let them make money from the stock market fuss free! Does it even exist in the first place? These people doesn't like to work hard, thinking, there must be this secret method. Read any books by the gurus, ask anyone whom you know is successful in trading, their successes didn't happen by chance. They worked hard for it. What do Jordan, Beckham, Cantona, Michael Jackson have in common? What about Michael Phelps, Federer, Nadal, Tiger Woods? They are champions in what they are doing because they worked hard for it! Putting hours of practises day after day. Gosh, everytime i look at these champions, and i look at myself, what am i doing? I want to be as successful in trading as i possibly can. But how can i achieve that if i watch the 9pm TV drama? Another ironic thing, i stopped working hard after my wedding! But that is all in the past... i am certainly studying charts every single night after my confessions to being lazy. It's not easy to stay focussed and not think abt bedtime. I countered that by plugging into music and jam it loud! Music is the door to the soul. If you haven't notice, some songs may bring back fond memories or sadness. All you need to do is find those songs which had motivated you when you need it most, plug in to those and condition your mind to stay foccussed!

As we can all see that it has been sell on news recently after results were released, on my watchlist, noble and ferrochina were hit. I re-short Noble after $2 broke, it is a dark cloud pattern at closing which is bearish. Oil price also couldn't sustain the rebound and i saw the dollar keep pushing the limits and an ascending triangle can be seen on the usdjpy pair. If it breaks out, i think oil price will see lower and commodities price may soften more thus noble may be dragged lower. Wilmar is another stock i am watching, the price seems happy to tango around $4... alot of palm oil related stocks already die straight straight, and only this flintstone refuse to bulge.

My Oceanus closed below the breakout level and this has raise alarm in my head. Come Monday, my eyes will be on the movement of this tricky stock.

Yanlord shorts is still on. I know a number of you are wondering, how on earth did Dec managed to short yanlord when most of the brokerage house are out of scrips? I am using Ang mo platform together with a local CFD brokerage. In any case, i prefer to short with ang mo if there are scrips otherwise i go with local. The reason is for ang mo, there is no need to rollover and the comms is cheaper. I could also trade FX and index easier.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.