Price Precedes News

I would think, we are not out of the woods yet. I'm gonna be patient and wait for the market to show me a bottom before I start to build my portfolio again. First rebound is nothing to be excited about. It's how the market test the previous low that matters. Things to watch out would be price actions, more selling or more buying. But before I build my portfolio, index is the other option where we can trade to cover paper losses. Last Friday my order for STI call warrants was not filled. I won't regret queing at the bid side and not buying from the offer side because it was an elephant spread and I will be paying higher premium for unneccesary risk. Market is always there, I will wait for another glorious opportunity to pull trigger.

Tonight we shall visit two charts namely StraitsAsia and Midas to show you how price movement precedes news. I just hate this part of the market. The more informed always has this advantage over us small retailers. There are 2 ways we can protect ourselves in this kind of scenario. Either you buy below the intrinsic value of the company and be an investor with a longer term horizon, or you use Technical Analysis to study the trails left behind by the big boys. When big boys run road, you don't want to be caught ball watching.





DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Protected My Profits

With US opening down almost 150 points, we are very close to breaking the support I concluded yesterday. Best scenario is for it to trade and form a base here. Current mood in the market is very nervy. Again the rally this morning was an opportunity to sell. By closing so much lower today, we look set to see a hanging man on the weekly chart. For now, I shall highlight what is going on from STI point of view.

Summary of Observations lately:
1) Index stocks got whacked
2) Sector rotation was very fast, like dumping at rallies
3) Every rally fails and got shot down
4) Property stocks gone quiet since April and some even are in downtrend

Today I took my profits for Hiap Seng when I again saw that there were broad market selling. This isn't normal at all. Tonight with wall street's huge loss.... tomorrow morning... no eyes see.. all I can hope for is not a big gap down for I know many people are still holding on to their shares. With blood being spilled in wall street, i'm glad last week I locked in all profits to avoid risk. You must already have a trading plan and know exactly what you will do when crisis hits. No use planning what to do when crisis hit because your emotions will rule you instead.

I have receive so many emails wanting to join me. :) I will reply to each one of you. But i have also stop looking so those who missed it....wait for next round. :)




DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Volatile Market

Last Friday I was already preparing for a stormy week ahead and I observed the price actions with keen interest. Every rally was shortlived and sellers were out in full force driving prices to close flat or lower. I do not like this kind of action. Furthermore, I observed since the rebound, the market rotated very fast and quick as if prices were jacked up to offload.

We had it easy during the last few months where stocks just flew up the charts. Now is the time where the informed market participants will be able to separate themselves from the misinformed. The question on everyone's mind (including mine), isit time to buy now? I must admit, it is very easy to be tempted by the "cheaper" prices we are seeing now. If i buy because I think the prices are cheap then I am not following my trading rules. Deep inside me, I know what is the consequences of not following my own trading rules and system. Also, I never forget what the great Livermore said in his book, "There are times to buy or sell, there are also times where we need to stand aside".

Since I have pocketed profits build up from March'07 shopping spree, I need to rebuild my portfolio again. I just love this game! The market is behaving very oddly and certainly risk is in the air. However, not all stocks will go down. Hence my job is to still find a trending stock in the right industry and ride on it. Slowly but surely i will be purchasing cautiously without over exposing myself to high risk. For many of my students, this is a great chance for you to witness how i shall walk the talk. I won't win all the time, but it is important for you to observe how I win more when i'm right and lose small when i am wrong. Infact, I shared the statistics of my MacD Trading System to the participants of the recent workshop, it only has an accuracy of 30% at most but guess what? The returns is as high as 100% ROI (profit reinvested).


I charted Dow Jones and found possible support levels 13,600 and 13,200.


GrowMoney Growth Fund
Jasper
HLH
Poh Tiong Choon
HiapSeng
Yongnam
LC Dev
TiongWoon

*Added Tiongwoon today

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Bears tried, Bulls won

I thought today's market will be a sea of red after the weak closing in US. Nikkei started as worse as it can get (-200) when we opened at 9am. There were indeed selling. However much to the delight of many, we showed strength and closed mixed with a tint of rotational buy ups.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Aqua-Terra
Courage Marine
Heeton
Pan Hong
TechComp


I added LC Development and Yongnam last Friday. Perfect timing as constructions taking a breather today... #@!$!#@$%#$%#@#

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

GrowMoney Blog Privatised!

Dearest all,

Do not be alarmed by the new look. You have come to the right site. The story goes like this, I was offered to take my blog private and host on a domain instead of blogspot.... F.O.C! After weeks of negotiations, MOU was signed and today phase 1 launch! You will see more good stuffs on this site in the near future! :) Would you want a space to chart perhaps? or an alert to flag impt price movements? Soon...... Huat arh!!

Today I sold ChinaTrans when Midas drop like a stone due to some negative rumour. It reminded me of the days when CAO got into trouble and the rest of the red army got whacked. I feel safer to hold offshore sector stocks for now and still favour them. The developer charge tax has got nothing to do with them. Hence they are innocent in the panic selling. With 70% cash, there is alot I can do. : )

Historically whenever DJ is testing round numbers 11k,12k,13k,14k it breaks through for a few sessions and then retrace. Hence next week, i will watch for negative price movement.

The rebound today is very strong. Tomorrow we should be green green and it will be natural for profit taking to take place at the end of the session. If i like the price actions accross the board, I will look to add shares into my growth fund.

Update about 4th August 2007, Cracking the Stock Market Code Intake 16
There are ONLY 9 SEATS LEFT!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Market flipped by the bears

3 pieces of news rocked the market yesterday.

1. Govt issued a new ruling to cool property sector
2. US hedge fund went burst
3. Rumours has it that there will be trading curb due to recent fanatic surge in penny shares

Now we know why property counters ain't moving recently despite STI goes into unchartered waters. Well what's new? Price actions always come before news. US hedge fund went burst is nothing new. So what in the world happened?

Last night US showed some strength when it manages to close a small red. Nikkei had already gap up and rebound. We are poised to rebound too. Watch for strength in the rebound for clues of if this is just a blip in the uptrend.

As for construction and property sector, i be watching how market react to the new ruling.

I sold Noble, StraitsAsia, Swiber, Yongnam, CSC during the plunge yesterday. Even if market was to rebound from here, i have no regrets. As traders, the most important thing is to manage our risk and protect our profits. If everything is fine, we can always buy back what we have sold.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
Jasper
HLH
ChinaTranscom
HiapSeng

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Uneasy Divergence

This is the second session where we open higher only to close lower. Intra day wise, selling seems to be well absorbed. But clearly the buying mood was not present.

Again, in my screening, i observed property counters are still weak and STI is showing a negative divergence. Plenty of forgotten stocks started to rally. These are textbook warning signs. With Dow Jones holding well and advancing, we could be dragged along without convictions. Price objective of Dow Jones is within grasp and with earnings season coming up, i wonder if there will be a sell on confirmation(good numbers were expected) situation. 18th July will see first set of inflation data being read. With such a ferocious rally, there are plenty of room to fall if the numbers turn out unfriendly.

Last Friday added ChinaTranscom to my growth fund.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Case Study: Adv Hldg

SINGAPORE: Adv Hldg finished the recent session with an interesting candle on high volume. It was observed that 20 Days Moving Average provides excellent support during the uptrend. The stock is stuck in the range between $0.53 and $0.57 for now. With RSI in oversold region, the stock is poised for a rebound. It will be interesting to observe if this stock can breakout.

Find out what others think about here.

My anticipations of the Market direction came true, I may have to sell one or two stocks to raise funds for another stock i am eyeing. It always make perfect sense to sell on the way up.

Registration for Cracking the Stock Market Code Intake 16 is now on! I am terribly sorry to people I have to turn away as intake 15 was sold out 1 week before the event. Now that intake 16 is opened, I hope to see you there. Also, if you look at my upcoming events right at the top of the page, you should know why i am seldom online these days. It's a crazy July for me.... bridal shoot, renovations (HEADACHE), career switch and 5 speaking engagements! For those going to get married sooner or later, please space out your activities....otherwise you end up like me, panda eyes! Fortunately, trading has been smooth. This is why it is important to have a trading system that you can trust and depend on. Market moves in a non random way, a trading system is your key to time your entries and exits.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Case Study: StraitsAsia

Adapted from ChartNexus Technical Analysis Case Study Series




The stock is in a near term downtrend and trading near it's near term support at 1.40. At the same time, it is sitting on a trendline support. It was under selling pressure over the last couple of weeks and we see 1.58 as a near term resistance. Support can be taken at the recent low on the 28th June 2007. It was further observed that RSI indicator is in oversold and a rebound can be on the cards. 20 Days Moving Average has been a good support for StraitsAsia as highlighted in yellow.

Find out what others think about this stock here.

Download your FREE professional charting software or find out how to automate your stock selection.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

A Swiberish Good Time

I am seeing bearish divergence in the indicators on STI's weekly chart. Also, the lacklustre performance of some of the bluechips caught my attention. Wall street has this saying, if the leaders are not leading the market, the second liners won't be able to lead for long. With this information in my mind, i shall be cautious. Bearish divergence is a warning siren. I remember not paying attention to this and got punished during my early days in trading. It is important to track how the market plays out for the rest of the week. It's either market pulls back for a correction, or it trades sideways to neutralise the divergence.

Crude oil has silently climbed to US$72 per barrel! All the oil and gas related stocks could be in play. So are those from the alternate fuel industry.

We opened higher and close lower today, this will certainly squeeze contra players. If market doesn't rebound in the next 3 days, more selling will ensue as contra players liquidate their positions due to contra due.

If market is firm and today is the lowest for the week by Thursday, it could be a good opportunity to load up.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Jasper
HLH
Noble Grp
Swiber
StraitsAsia
HiapSeng

* Added HiapSeng last week

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Here without Dow

Dow is closed tonight and hence we saw quite a fair bit of profit taking at closing. Notably construction counters. Tomorrow's open will be guided by Nikkei or any newsflow locally. I like intra week selling as it may set up a grand finish to the week.

If you are curious, how come the quickpicks are so uncannily accurate, don't be. I never expect them to outperform the market. They are just stocks from my personal analysis where I think the risk/reward is good. Movement is just a matter of time. It is the responsibility of the trader to know when to execute. There will be times when we are wrong, times when we are right. What matters most is you win more when you are right, and u lose small when you are wrong. All these are part of a trading system. By the way, only 6 places are left for my class on the 14th of July! There is no reason for you to lose in a bull market. If you dare to click buy button, i urge you to join my events and let me share with you my system.

At each ChartNexus workshop i never fail to mention that, at chartnexus, we are traders too! haha Now that I joined the team full time, i couldn't agree more with the statement. Today we were planning a move on a warrant! :D haha Maybe the boss will take it as part of company bonus and act blur at year end??? hahaha

Growmoney Quickpicks
Fibrechem
Hiap Seng
ChipEngSeng

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Constructions Tangoes Investors

Thanks for all the well wishings! Wah I received at support mail box of chartnexus, from my own course alumni group and also this blog! Very very satisfying....everyday eat, sleep, think, talk about market and trading!

It's still early in the week to identify where market is likely to head to. However, construction continues to hog the limelight. It seems like rotational interest where it was Lian Beng's turn to steal the show. Plastic industry is also making a comeback.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
AsiaEnt
ChinaHong
ChinaSun
SimLian

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Market Directions for a start

A look at the STI weekly chart found bearish divergence in indicators. Market may pull back further. 3458 should hold for now as we enter the earnings season. Nikkei will face resistance around 18223. As for HSI, 21052 to 21256 should offer very good support. DJ's support around 13,258 held steady last week. Resistance to beat will be 13,700 thereabts. I would love to see US form base around this level and that STI trades sideways to form a base. Trading sideways shakes out weak holders and contra players and we will have supply of buyers ready to enter the market when good earnings are announced. This said, the only time i will break my bank to buy more will be when I see support holds.

Sector wise, without a doubt something is brewing with Yongnam. IR contract was supposed to be awarded by end of June but no news yet. From my XPertTrader screening, a specific industry came out prominently...synthetic leather manufacture from PRC. Chinasky, CG Tech and SinoTech. All showed buying interest returned on Friday. I shall see how Monday opens and the buying interest before commiting my funds.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Jasper
HLH
Noble Grp
Swiber
StraitsAsia

Anouncement: I joined ChartNexus full time! One big step towards my dream. : ) I'm privelleged that I was offered a chance to turn my passion into a career! Buffett said, "when one is enjoying the work he is doing, it is no longer a job." I cannot agree more. By going full time, i am giving myself a chance to reach financial freedom in the shortest time possible. This is certainly a challenge. I am a trainer of my own courses. I preached T.A at SGX seminars and on magazines.... now I shall walk my talk. Huat arh!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.