Although i anticipated the rebound, but to be able to hold firm to my shorts is emotionally testing. To say i am not the least affected by the rebound would be a lie. It's really how i manage the fear inside; the fear of seeing my profit goes up in smoke. First of all, i must be clear, which level will mean this is not just a bear rebound. Which level will be a confirmation that my view is correct? This is how one can manage his emotion in trading. Otherwise it will be easy to be swung out of position. However we are all humans afterall, mana buay sim tia to see the profit shaven off. Like Livermore said, "Why worry about the few bids of profits as we didn't even own it in the first place" He further ensures that reaction in a trend is healthy and normal.
The buy signals from my strategies didn't trigger the entry price. This despite Dow was up 250 points. Perhaps the market isn't too keen to be bullish this time round. Most of the stocks finished near their lows. Wilmar for one manage to close a gap in spectacular fashion. To think i was interested to long it. Indeed, if it closed above 2.90s, i would consider it as bullish. Looks like 2.60s will be tested soon.
HSI lead by nikkei, spured on my Dow's overnight closing nearly spoil my day. it traded as high as 13.2k.... squeezing the daylights out of me.. i really need to see HSI breaks 12.4k by end of the week, otherwise something may not be right. It is a danger sign to me. Because Dow has broken the lowest level since 1997.... HSI, Nikkei and STI still languishing above 2003 lows... how can? But from my experience, Dow always dictate. Hence it may mean Asia may play catchup later. Otherwise, the recent reports about China may be true... their stimulus package seems to be working... and market maybe anticipating Asia to be firm for now?
UOL surprised me...gosh.. why it has to be me? Remember i covered Cosco at 835 and it tanked further... NOL refuse to go lower, and now i have UOL threatening to the upside... I know UOL is crying wolf if tomorrow it doesn't close higher with significantly higher volume or there is a bearish candle.
NOL is not easy... the way it traded as if it's going to breakout to the upside really disappoint me as i have anticipated a breakout to the downside. To short NOL, one must be sea-sick resilient because it is swaying up and down in the range still. However i like the fact that despite two bullish days and it didn't breakout strongly. Let me just observe one more day and then i decide if i should get out of it and loot one more liap of HSI. This is my strategy for the near term, i am going to take profits from stocks and then add to my HSI shorts. This way, if market plunge like October style, then i will tua tan. Otherwise, at most i lose my profits. However since i am with the primary trend, i think i have a slight advantage. Let's see.
For those following the Fibrechem story... this used to be one of my winning stock in 2006... the uptrend is well defined and very easy to make money. But gone were the days. Now this stock joined FerroChina into cold storage... Corporate scandal man! Those "Wrong" term investor this time really jia lat liao... I think Livermore put it very nicely. We must not invest in a company whereby it performed extremely well only in an economic enviroment and expects it to perform as well in a different set of economic enviroment. To invest, i think the company need to have a proven track record and the management team must be yan dao and capable.... otherwise easily become a victim.
I think tomolo may be a good time to go hoot one more short... depends on where Dow close tonight.
By the way, US new home sales dropped... They thought with the stimulus package, people will start buying homes.... please man! With so much uncertainty, plus job losses...i think they may hold cash incase tio retrench? Also, i thought most of the time people will make money from stock market first before they buy properties? With such sales going on in US market, maybe they get the money and start buying shares? keke
By the way, have you guys received the GST offset? I got mine.... also spent liao.. wahahaha i did my part to save the economy! :D
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Reflections
NOL: Stuck in a side-way range. IT means i shouldn't be using ADX or MacD in my analysis. Stochastics suggest a rebound is on the way. As i am short on NOL, i am waiting for the purple moving average to confirm the bearishness. Based on the last two candle stick formation, it seems like NOL is ready to pop higher. Should I long? No! Up yes, but how much is the up-side? Aren't i safer to remain short as we now how market can plunge more than it climbs?
HSI: The red spot on the chart is the likelyhood where the rebound may end. It is the downtrend resistance coupled with the neckline of the double top formation. The rally today caught my surprise because it came after Dow closed weak. HSI has not broken the last low about 12,400 points which disappoints me. HSI may rebound within the range still. RSI looks to be supported and this is bad news to shortist. Coz' if HSI is to rebound, plenty of room for RSI to move higher. However, this intra-week rebound may just be shortlived unless it can reverse the bad picture painted on the weekly chart. I am still hanging on to my HSI shorts. I am contemplating if i should add to my shorts since the market rebounds higher this week. Should i bet that this is only a rebound week and that next week the market continues to fall? If i am to try for it, then i have to reduce my short positions in NOL and UOL. What about diversification? Incase HSI go crazy and up 1000 points. Sure i can risk my 2009 profits. Question is, do i want to build on the profits by taking my profits early, or do i want to risk partial profits and go for bigger profits. For the record, whenever i try to go for big money, i never get it. Like i said in the last blog post, i knew the market wouldn't tank this week, simply because i still have short positions... lol
UOL: I will be watching closely on the rebound. ADX is showing a breakout in downtrend and strength as well. However, MacD is still not convincing. Both RSI and MacD has a chance to form bullish divergence at current level. I ignore Stochastic here as we are not in a range.
GrowMoney quickpicks
SGX
F&N
Wilmar
Of the 3 stocks above, i like Wilmar best. Definitely in my target list to long since it completed a bullish engulfing pattern with super volume. Indicators seem to confirm the signal. As for SGX and F&N, i think they may just be heading up to re-test support turn resistance.
As it is only Monday and we have 4 trading days to go, i need to see how we trade by Wednesday to form an anticipation. On Thursday, it is time again to participate in the traders club which is an exclusive meeting. We take it seriously such that we ban graduates who registered and didn't turn up. These people do not deserve to be in the club. This is the place where I offer our service and expertise to help get graduates up to speed. Hence i will not allow people to take this meeting for granted. So on Thursday i think it is a fantastic time to gather everyone because if this is the rebound week, Friday may present lots of shorting opportunities. Remember, it is safer to short on the rebound!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Anticipating a weak closing
*stretch the hands* woah... long time no blog.. as some of you might have already known, i was away to ChartNexus KL office for a few days. Though my body was in KL, my soul was at home and my mind was on the stock market. keke
On Tuesday when the market tanks, i wasn't ard my desk to build up more shorts. Rather on Wednesday where there was a slight rebound, i covered my Cosco and shorted one more HSI. My rationale was; I still have my NOL and UOL shorts, if i take up additional short positions, then i am actually increasing my risk. Also, i see Singapore market no up. It seems like recently it is fast becoming a useless market where global markets rebound, we only farted, but when global markets sell off, we go down as hiong as the worst. Hence i rather stick with my local stocks shorts. As for HSI, last week when the rebound actually reversed near a support turned resistance. Hence my thought is, if it really wants to cheong higher, that was the best time to take out the high. Hence on Wednesday when HSI rebound to 13k, i added one more short. My view is, it should close lower on Friday.
To short after a support has been broken is always a risky thing to do. This is because the market can squeeze you. Hence it is advisable to sell at the high. Follow the notion Buy low, sell high. When we want to long, we buy at the low, when we want to short, we sell at the high. If you do this, you will realise you have a margin of safety.
Tomorrow night is known as the triple witching over at US market and expect a volatile session. Those who likes to be night owl can trade the night session to earn some pocket money. haha Weekly charts of most indices look to have more room to fall. I may look to cover NOL and go for a financial stock if we have an intra-day rebound.
The market may not plunge again so soon. How i know? It's because often time, i have to make my money the hard way. Many a time, whenever i risk my profits for major movement, it never came. Hence as i am still holding to 3 short positions, i doubt the market will plunge... keke
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
On Tuesday when the market tanks, i wasn't ard my desk to build up more shorts. Rather on Wednesday where there was a slight rebound, i covered my Cosco and shorted one more HSI. My rationale was; I still have my NOL and UOL shorts, if i take up additional short positions, then i am actually increasing my risk. Also, i see Singapore market no up. It seems like recently it is fast becoming a useless market where global markets rebound, we only farted, but when global markets sell off, we go down as hiong as the worst. Hence i rather stick with my local stocks shorts. As for HSI, last week when the rebound actually reversed near a support turned resistance. Hence my thought is, if it really wants to cheong higher, that was the best time to take out the high. Hence on Wednesday when HSI rebound to 13k, i added one more short. My view is, it should close lower on Friday.
To short after a support has been broken is always a risky thing to do. This is because the market can squeeze you. Hence it is advisable to sell at the high. Follow the notion Buy low, sell high. When we want to long, we buy at the low, when we want to short, we sell at the high. If you do this, you will realise you have a margin of safety.
Tomorrow night is known as the triple witching over at US market and expect a volatile session. Those who likes to be night owl can trade the night session to earn some pocket money. haha Weekly charts of most indices look to have more room to fall. I may look to cover NOL and go for a financial stock if we have an intra-day rebound.
The market may not plunge again so soon. How i know? It's because often time, i have to make my money the hard way. Many a time, whenever i risk my profits for major movement, it never came. Hence as i am still holding to 3 short positions, i doubt the market will plunge... keke
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Patience paid off
My anticipations of a sell off came true. Now i am seeing Dow broke the major support. Of course the closing on Dow is more important. Hence it is better not to count the chickens before they are hatched. Such support which so many people are eyeing once gives way, i think more downside to come.
It was really tough emotionally when the market showed resiliency. Many a times when the market rebounds, i had the temptations to cut my shorts and turn long. Especially seeing the profits dwindled. From my experience, i knew exactly how to deal with such emotional swings. I think this is my edge. Other than T.A which can be learnt easily, emotion attachments are often the toughest to manage. One has to go through the cycle of losing to winning before one finally can practise that effortlessly. It takes more than raw guts to stick to the trading plan or one's own market opinion.
To speak the truth, i didn't use any wonderful system or secret methods... it is just T.A + money mgmt + risk/reward analysis. I didn't know for sure the market is going to break the support and not going to go into a bull run. What prompted my short positions is how much i will lose if my opinion is wrong. I reckoned, i can handle the risk from the profits i built up since Jan'09. The rule of this game is, when you are right, you win more than when you are wrong. This is money management. Remember how i was wrong early Jan? I cut my losses fast and turned short when the MTL levels were met. I think this is how this game should be played.
During this sideway market, i know which level to determine if the market is bullish and what are the signs. I didn't see any. Rather, i found the actions very familiar, something which i may have experienced in the past. Hence i opted to build short positions while managing my risks. On the hindsight, i could have long at support and sell at pop up to make the profits. But like i have shared before, all the small profits u make betting at support to bounce will be lost in a sudden plunge like this. On some occassion, it can be more than that! How did i know? I was once a victim too. keke
Today i talked to R again. Throughout the conversation, he was justifying to me why Indoagri can go up and why he should be holding on to it. For the record, he longed at 1.30s, and then averaged at 0.39... All the trades were done because he feels it is a good price to trade. Without FA or TA. As his friend, i always advise him not to trade because of his feel, either readup on FA to invest or TA to trade... I thought it is common sense, if you want to be an engineer, u study engineering, if you want to be a doctor, you read medicine. Now if you want to make money from the stock market, you should study how to do it instead of gambling. I have a feeling tomorrow he is going to MSN me and scold me for talking abt him. keke
The other friend i am in constant contact with is Y. People around her discouraged her from trading... and persuade her to invest instead. She even has doubts that if trading really can make money. As a beginner i can understand what she is going through because i have gone down that path before. Well, i consider myself fortunate. Because during my losing years, i saw how my shifus really made money from trading and applying technical analysis. Although i was still learning and the road to success was slow, at least i could draw constant inspirations from them. I had the belief that one day i can also do it. Determination + Faith + Belief! I think this may be what Y is lacking. :P Opps... another person to give me earful tomolo.. keke
Noble and Olam... the commodities rally may be coming to an end? The rising wedge resistance may not be tested afterall... i had actually wanted to short Olam in the 1.50s... however it only manages to trade at 1.51... looks like i may have to pass this trade.
SGX is the new counter i may be eyeing.. the $5 has been frolicking for too long.... too long.... hmm....
Will this break matures into a fantastic downtrend..... i hope so... Dow... pls dun rebound tomolo morning! Let me see a -250 from u!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
It was really tough emotionally when the market showed resiliency. Many a times when the market rebounds, i had the temptations to cut my shorts and turn long. Especially seeing the profits dwindled. From my experience, i knew exactly how to deal with such emotional swings. I think this is my edge. Other than T.A which can be learnt easily, emotion attachments are often the toughest to manage. One has to go through the cycle of losing to winning before one finally can practise that effortlessly. It takes more than raw guts to stick to the trading plan or one's own market opinion.
To speak the truth, i didn't use any wonderful system or secret methods... it is just T.A + money mgmt + risk/reward analysis. I didn't know for sure the market is going to break the support and not going to go into a bull run. What prompted my short positions is how much i will lose if my opinion is wrong. I reckoned, i can handle the risk from the profits i built up since Jan'09. The rule of this game is, when you are right, you win more than when you are wrong. This is money management. Remember how i was wrong early Jan? I cut my losses fast and turned short when the MTL levels were met. I think this is how this game should be played.
During this sideway market, i know which level to determine if the market is bullish and what are the signs. I didn't see any. Rather, i found the actions very familiar, something which i may have experienced in the past. Hence i opted to build short positions while managing my risks. On the hindsight, i could have long at support and sell at pop up to make the profits. But like i have shared before, all the small profits u make betting at support to bounce will be lost in a sudden plunge like this. On some occassion, it can be more than that! How did i know? I was once a victim too. keke
Today i talked to R again. Throughout the conversation, he was justifying to me why Indoagri can go up and why he should be holding on to it. For the record, he longed at 1.30s, and then averaged at 0.39... All the trades were done because he feels it is a good price to trade. Without FA or TA. As his friend, i always advise him not to trade because of his feel, either readup on FA to invest or TA to trade... I thought it is common sense, if you want to be an engineer, u study engineering, if you want to be a doctor, you read medicine. Now if you want to make money from the stock market, you should study how to do it instead of gambling. I have a feeling tomorrow he is going to MSN me and scold me for talking abt him. keke
The other friend i am in constant contact with is Y. People around her discouraged her from trading... and persuade her to invest instead. She even has doubts that if trading really can make money. As a beginner i can understand what she is going through because i have gone down that path before. Well, i consider myself fortunate. Because during my losing years, i saw how my shifus really made money from trading and applying technical analysis. Although i was still learning and the road to success was slow, at least i could draw constant inspirations from them. I had the belief that one day i can also do it. Determination + Faith + Belief! I think this may be what Y is lacking. :P Opps... another person to give me earful tomolo.. keke
Noble and Olam... the commodities rally may be coming to an end? The rising wedge resistance may not be tested afterall... i had actually wanted to short Olam in the 1.50s... however it only manages to trade at 1.51... looks like i may have to pass this trade.
SGX is the new counter i may be eyeing.. the $5 has been frolicking for too long.... too long.... hmm....
Will this break matures into a fantastic downtrend..... i hope so... Dow... pls dun rebound tomolo morning! Let me see a -250 from u!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
A Resilient Market
We are now being swing in a very tiny range... breakout may be akan datang. And the triggering news? Of course is the bail out plan... week ago i mentioned this is what the market may be waiting.. and while it is waiting, neither the support nor resistance was broken. Plenty of whipsaws around.
To be honest, as the days go by, I am getting more and more restless. I feel like adding my shorts on the way up. At the same time i am also wary of what could happen in China. Jiabao shushu may disclose their stimulus plan anytime. The market is also sucking in all the bad news and selling very well. But in a bear market i am still cautious. When it breaks down, it can go down twice as fast as it crawls up. So meanwhile i will just wait for the stupid bailout plan details to be out. It's better than losing money unneccessarily. Livermore said, there is a time to long, there is a time to short. There is also a time to stand aside. One of the 3 times he went bankrupt was in the aftermath of the great depression. Then he wrote that the market was thin and in a tight range. He was a breakout trader... it was during that period he lost alot of money and he realised it is impossible to make money in that market.
Hearsay the congress is unhappy with the way the last bailout fund was used. But Obama keep pushing... by hook and by crook i think it's going Obama's way. Government intervention can spoil my bear party.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
To be honest, as the days go by, I am getting more and more restless. I feel like adding my shorts on the way up. At the same time i am also wary of what could happen in China. Jiabao shushu may disclose their stimulus plan anytime. The market is also sucking in all the bad news and selling very well. But in a bear market i am still cautious. When it breaks down, it can go down twice as fast as it crawls up. So meanwhile i will just wait for the stupid bailout plan details to be out. It's better than losing money unneccessarily. Livermore said, there is a time to long, there is a time to short. There is also a time to stand aside. One of the 3 times he went bankrupt was in the aftermath of the great depression. Then he wrote that the market was thin and in a tight range. He was a breakout trader... it was during that period he lost alot of money and he realised it is impossible to make money in that market.
Hearsay the congress is unhappy with the way the last bailout fund was used. But Obama keep pushing... by hook and by crook i think it's going Obama's way. Government intervention can spoil my bear party.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Some things doesn't change
By now most of us would have already heard the news on Capitaland issuing rights. haha I just find the whole episode amusing.. Didn't they replied recently that they have no idea of the high trading volume and crushed any talk of "issuing rights"? What happened today? wahahaha IT's not the first time and definitely not the last time this had happened. I am so used to this by now. Well i don't blame anyone for this, infact without these things happening in the stock market, how to use technical analysis?
SPC: While most of the stocks already hit 100dma and turned down, this is a laggard. It has not met resistance at 100DMA and looked destined to fall. Conflicting signal here with bollinger breakout vs 100dma as resistance. This happens so often in analysis. So which one do we listen to? We should really use risk/reward to decide if we should trade at current level. Today it closed with a bearish engulfing. It needs no confirmation.
Commodities can buy? I have attached the two charts on Olam and noble, both are commodities play. Both are showing rising wedge pattern. To trade rising wedge, i will wait patiently for it to restest the upper line. That will be a good MTL. This is because if the pattern is true, that is where it offers the best risk reward. Of course seeing a CS reversal is bonus. OTherwise a break of the lower line with a bearish market breadth is also a great opportunity.
UOL - Latest discovery. Product of TT1-short! With capitaland needing to raise cash, they may say all they want, i only trust my charts. Market is full of lies and illusions. We choose what we want to see.
A reminder of the China Stimulus plan. This could be the reason why HSI was so resilient. This is despite Nikkei's weakness at closing. I reckon many are pinning hopes on the China stimulus plan. A friend reminded me, the last round, governments around the globe too injected stimulus package in different sizes... did it work? Of course we proceed to see lower prices. This bear market escaped even the elitest in the finance world. Should i even bother to believe what i read anymore? haha
Currently i'm still staying with my HSI short and NOL short. Thankfully NOL threatens to the downside today. But it's still eat pig pay dog for me since HSI rebounded to my shorting level. At 10,300 points, market already priced in the stimulus package? Sell on news on the cards? How about bradley turn date? We shall see...
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
SPC: While most of the stocks already hit 100dma and turned down, this is a laggard. It has not met resistance at 100DMA and looked destined to fall. Conflicting signal here with bollinger breakout vs 100dma as resistance. This happens so often in analysis. So which one do we listen to? We should really use risk/reward to decide if we should trade at current level. Today it closed with a bearish engulfing. It needs no confirmation.
Commodities can buy? I have attached the two charts on Olam and noble, both are commodities play. Both are showing rising wedge pattern. To trade rising wedge, i will wait patiently for it to restest the upper line. That will be a good MTL. This is because if the pattern is true, that is where it offers the best risk reward. Of course seeing a CS reversal is bonus. OTherwise a break of the lower line with a bearish market breadth is also a great opportunity.
UOL - Latest discovery. Product of TT1-short! With capitaland needing to raise cash, they may say all they want, i only trust my charts. Market is full of lies and illusions. We choose what we want to see.
A reminder of the China Stimulus plan. This could be the reason why HSI was so resilient. This is despite Nikkei's weakness at closing. I reckon many are pinning hopes on the China stimulus plan. A friend reminded me, the last round, governments around the globe too injected stimulus package in different sizes... did it work? Of course we proceed to see lower prices. This bear market escaped even the elitest in the finance world. Should i even bother to believe what i read anymore? haha
Currently i'm still staying with my HSI short and NOL short. Thankfully NOL threatens to the downside today. But it's still eat pig pay dog for me since HSI rebounded to my shorting level. At 10,300 points, market already priced in the stimulus package? Sell on news on the cards? How about bradley turn date? We shall see...
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Thursday, February 05, 2009
May the market falls
Although CNY has just passed barely a week.... without any recent trades, i felt that time was crawling by. It seems like i haven't taken a position for a long time. Gambler instincts! haha Today i added another short position in the market. This time round, i decided to go with my gut feel and shorted NOL. No doubt NOL is in a tight range, unless it breakout to the upside which i don't feel it's possible given a slow down in global trade. Hence to me, i feel downside is more realistic. The rally in the market presented me an opportunity to bet NOL by shorting nearer to the resistance. I shorted at 1.23. At worse, maybe i can cover back at 1.10s...
HSI's intra-day rally caught my eye... when index was trading at 13.3k by 11am, i contemplated at running away. However i reminded myself to focus on the primary trend and visualise my worse case scenario. At worse i lose back some of my profits in 2009. Too hum ji will only result in tan bo jiak.
The whole week is full of ups and downs without an obvious direction or even the slightest hint. What market may want me to believe is we may be heading higher in the near term. In this sideway market, i rather short at resistance then to long at support. I have got battle scars that reminded me that no matter how i should only long if i see bullish signs which is sorely missing. I had wanted to hoot big on NOL, but i hold back. My position now is just a tikam on the market lao sai next week either due to a lousy non-farm pay roll or bailout plan refuted and of course the bradley turn date next Mon. Hence if i am right about market testing new lows, then i always can add after it breaks. Otherwise going into a full position now, i risk more if i am wrong.
I cut my BAC. This stock is really hopeless. Even though Dow rallied, it is moving lower. It was a trade placed by mistake and i have no qualms about cutting it. To date, i made two mistakes in US market. BAC by accidental order, AAPL by lack of commitment to do proper homework.
Once again i set up myself for a bear market. If i am right, it means over the last few trading days market is sucking in buyers. After next Monday, i should have a clearer picture.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
HSI's intra-day rally caught my eye... when index was trading at 13.3k by 11am, i contemplated at running away. However i reminded myself to focus on the primary trend and visualise my worse case scenario. At worse i lose back some of my profits in 2009. Too hum ji will only result in tan bo jiak.
The whole week is full of ups and downs without an obvious direction or even the slightest hint. What market may want me to believe is we may be heading higher in the near term. In this sideway market, i rather short at resistance then to long at support. I have got battle scars that reminded me that no matter how i should only long if i see bullish signs which is sorely missing. I had wanted to hoot big on NOL, but i hold back. My position now is just a tikam on the market lao sai next week either due to a lousy non-farm pay roll or bailout plan refuted and of course the bradley turn date next Mon. Hence if i am right about market testing new lows, then i always can add after it breaks. Otherwise going into a full position now, i risk more if i am wrong.
I cut my BAC. This stock is really hopeless. Even though Dow rallied, it is moving lower. It was a trade placed by mistake and i have no qualms about cutting it. To date, i made two mistakes in US market. BAC by accidental order, AAPL by lack of commitment to do proper homework.
Once again i set up myself for a bear market. If i am right, it means over the last few trading days market is sucking in buyers. After next Monday, i should have a clearer picture.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
Follow the gut feel?
After the comments by JiaBao shu shu, China may taps its reserves to invest in their motherland. Woah... even China needs to tap reserves... this bear is really fierce. I hope the great depression II will not happen in my life time... i don't want to see it. On the other hand, if it does happen, gosh, it paves way for great opportunities post depression. If i'm still young by then, maybe it is my chance to tua huat? keke Anyway, the market boosted by Dow's overnight positive closing and closed higher. Although the index is down, individual stocks are up mostly. Volume again is pretty average. Just abit more thoughts on volume, i think the avg for now we can take 1b. We shouldn't be expecting 2b or more as many retailers has turned "forced" investors.
Do you believe in gut feel? You can read about it here. You will be surprise what i wrote one year ago is similar to current market! Who says history doesn't repeat itself? With many stocks near support, it is very tempting to long. Just like what i wrote yesterday. Today's price rally caught my eye. I didn't want to long, rather i feel the market could be sucking in buyers and setting up for a sell-off. Although technically i shouldn't start to long here, however my concern is, when the decline starts, it may be an ugly gap down leaving us with no chance to short. One of the option i am considering now is scale up selling. My friend already started doing this. The technique is shorting on up days all the way to resistance, and once turn down, hoot more. However, this is a high risk strategy, if you are wrong, then it will be very painful. One must have enough conviction about the direction inorder to do this. I am tempted... selecting my target carefully. But question is, should i follow my gut feel?
Comfort delgro fell through the MTL level, i am observing. I did not take up position here. My objective to be monitoring this stock is to see how my sell signals are doing. If the sell signals start to be profitable, then i am more confident to take the next one that comes along. This is because my strategies are "buy low, sell high". HEnce if one by one the sell signals start to be profitable, it means the stocks are turning down at resistance one by one, sector by sector. This is how i derive confidence in taking signals and positions. I do not like to trade the market in random just because there is a signal from the system. Liklihood is i will see more losses then winners. How about cutting the losses fast and ride the winners inorder to be profitable when using the system? ask yourself, if you have cut losses fast for 4 trades, the 5th is profitable, do you think you have the resolve to ride the trend? chances are you will take your profits too early and in the long run, end up nett loss. One doesn't need to trade everyday, but must observe what the market is telling you. All you need is one trading idea to hoot!
NOL's bollinger is very very tight and it is approaching resistance on the weekly chart. Either up or down, i think can trade. Watch out for it.
Wilmar has a bear flag waving on the weekly chart, i think it's going to announce it's results soon? Maybe sell on news?
The stars says major movement on the 8th/9th Feb.... hmm... tua lao sai next week? Just nice, stimulus plan + nonfarm payroll...
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Do you believe in gut feel? You can read about it here. You will be surprise what i wrote one year ago is similar to current market! Who says history doesn't repeat itself? With many stocks near support, it is very tempting to long. Just like what i wrote yesterday. Today's price rally caught my eye. I didn't want to long, rather i feel the market could be sucking in buyers and setting up for a sell-off. Although technically i shouldn't start to long here, however my concern is, when the decline starts, it may be an ugly gap down leaving us with no chance to short. One of the option i am considering now is scale up selling. My friend already started doing this. The technique is shorting on up days all the way to resistance, and once turn down, hoot more. However, this is a high risk strategy, if you are wrong, then it will be very painful. One must have enough conviction about the direction inorder to do this. I am tempted... selecting my target carefully. But question is, should i follow my gut feel?
Comfort delgro fell through the MTL level, i am observing. I did not take up position here. My objective to be monitoring this stock is to see how my sell signals are doing. If the sell signals start to be profitable, then i am more confident to take the next one that comes along. This is because my strategies are "buy low, sell high". HEnce if one by one the sell signals start to be profitable, it means the stocks are turning down at resistance one by one, sector by sector. This is how i derive confidence in taking signals and positions. I do not like to trade the market in random just because there is a signal from the system. Liklihood is i will see more losses then winners. How about cutting the losses fast and ride the winners inorder to be profitable when using the system? ask yourself, if you have cut losses fast for 4 trades, the 5th is profitable, do you think you have the resolve to ride the trend? chances are you will take your profits too early and in the long run, end up nett loss. One doesn't need to trade everyday, but must observe what the market is telling you. All you need is one trading idea to hoot!
NOL's bollinger is very very tight and it is approaching resistance on the weekly chart. Either up or down, i think can trade. Watch out for it.
Wilmar has a bear flag waving on the weekly chart, i think it's going to announce it's results soon? Maybe sell on news?
The stars says major movement on the 8th/9th Feb.... hmm... tua lao sai next week? Just nice, stimulus plan + nonfarm payroll...
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Headless chicken
Looking at the stock market... really looks like a headless chicken, doesn't seem going down, at the same time no confidence to head higher. I am tempted to go long but had to pinch myself to remember the primary trend. How about short? No again because support ain't broken. Then what about short at resistance? Now I saw two types of resistances in most stocks, one of immediate high, the other one would be of the major resistance line.
Unlike previous month, the market was moving according to my anticipation through sector rotation. This is the easiest way i can read the direction of the market. Currently the sectors were not moving much and there was no clear leading sector as yet. Hence the wait continues. i just need the next move to come and then i shall hoot tua tua. My shifu said in trading, if you are on a roll, don't let loose. Dare dare win more.
The last time market is in such a range got to be May to Jun 2008. Then i threw caution to the wind and went long at support. Happiness was what i felt when market indeed rally higher and i sold on the way up. However, at the next dip, i longed more. Without a warning the market fell like a stone in the following month. I think i made peanuts by giving back a substantial amount of my profits. I realised my mistake was not following the primary trend. Then i was fooled by "it is the bottom". Not to mention because i wasn't fully focused on trading last year.
If the market has bottomed, this is actually the kind of boring market we should be witnessing. I will be observing for the characteristics of a solid chart base from volume behaviour and price patterns. For those of you who have attended the training, we want to see bullish candlestick patterns at support levels. It is covered in your training and i think the topic is on multiple patterns analysis.
Currently the market seems to be drawing in buyers... may be a trap?
Now for the bad news.... i forgotten to remove my BAC(NYSE) long order last week and my order was hit! Cham liao.. now got to baby sit BAC... I didn't even know that my order was triggered until i checked my accounts today. Anyway, the good news is, I am profitable for the second consecutive month. : ) go go go! Just like EPL, i shall take every month as a final and make sure i am profitable. This way by end of the year, how not to be nett profitable? Patience....... loon ah!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Unlike previous month, the market was moving according to my anticipation through sector rotation. This is the easiest way i can read the direction of the market. Currently the sectors were not moving much and there was no clear leading sector as yet. Hence the wait continues. i just need the next move to come and then i shall hoot tua tua. My shifu said in trading, if you are on a roll, don't let loose. Dare dare win more.
The last time market is in such a range got to be May to Jun 2008. Then i threw caution to the wind and went long at support. Happiness was what i felt when market indeed rally higher and i sold on the way up. However, at the next dip, i longed more. Without a warning the market fell like a stone in the following month. I think i made peanuts by giving back a substantial amount of my profits. I realised my mistake was not following the primary trend. Then i was fooled by "it is the bottom". Not to mention because i wasn't fully focused on trading last year.
If the market has bottomed, this is actually the kind of boring market we should be witnessing. I will be observing for the characteristics of a solid chart base from volume behaviour and price patterns. For those of you who have attended the training, we want to see bullish candlestick patterns at support levels. It is covered in your training and i think the topic is on multiple patterns analysis.
Currently the market seems to be drawing in buyers... may be a trap?
Now for the bad news.... i forgotten to remove my BAC(NYSE) long order last week and my order was hit! Cham liao.. now got to baby sit BAC... I didn't even know that my order was triggered until i checked my accounts today. Anyway, the good news is, I am profitable for the second consecutive month. : ) go go go! Just like EPL, i shall take every month as a final and make sure i am profitable. This way by end of the year, how not to be nett profitable? Patience....... loon ah!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Monday, February 02, 2009
Markets at MTL levels again
I had expected the market to stay afloat and not heading anywhere or even slightly lower. But the selling was pretty strong today and caught me by surprise. Not that i am complaining too much because i have a HSI short. But what irks me is when i am not in tune with market. Once I am anticipating the market correctly, then only would i hoot tua tua. Otherwise i will continue to grind the profits.
Monday started weaker than expected and now Nikkei is firmly below 8k again and Dow too broke 8k... FTSE fighting hard to stay afloat 4k and STI.... 1700 points looks hard to defend. However, unless a big negative news hit the street, otherwise i don't see any big sell off coming. Obviously while the US econs data were bad, i can see that the market isn't reacting to that. Rather it is waiting for positive news flow about the contents of the bailout plan. Eureka! Market is looking for a positive news to rally. Since it mai lo, surely it means it is going to ki?
The support-turn-resistance neckline on HSI works like magic as my short swung deep in the money today. I am still keeping it unless proven wrong by market. Meanwhile, i will be looking at any clues that may suggest i shouldn't be a bear.
Comfortdelgro: The taxi may run out of gas as it hits into resistance and is near the MTL level, 1.38. However Taxi is known to be slow.. hence if i go short, i may have to wait for some time before i can see profits... continue to ponder...
F&N: Another stock which is near MTL level... 2.72 should be the level to watch. If broken, i think 2.20 akan datang. The average traded volume of 2.2 mil should qualify this stock as slow. If the market lacks interest in this stock, then the movement will be slow... continue to ponder...
IndoAgri: It has hit resistance and offers an excellent risk to reward trade based on current price. My only concern is if OPEC cuts production, it may spur a rally in palm oil related counters. Indices at current levels offer little incentive to add to my shorts because i suspect it may bounce off support instead of crashing through it.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Monday started weaker than expected and now Nikkei is firmly below 8k again and Dow too broke 8k... FTSE fighting hard to stay afloat 4k and STI.... 1700 points looks hard to defend. However, unless a big negative news hit the street, otherwise i don't see any big sell off coming. Obviously while the US econs data were bad, i can see that the market isn't reacting to that. Rather it is waiting for positive news flow about the contents of the bailout plan. Eureka! Market is looking for a positive news to rally. Since it mai lo, surely it means it is going to ki?
The support-turn-resistance neckline on HSI works like magic as my short swung deep in the money today. I am still keeping it unless proven wrong by market. Meanwhile, i will be looking at any clues that may suggest i shouldn't be a bear.
Comfortdelgro: The taxi may run out of gas as it hits into resistance and is near the MTL level, 1.38. However Taxi is known to be slow.. hence if i go short, i may have to wait for some time before i can see profits... continue to ponder...
F&N: Another stock which is near MTL level... 2.72 should be the level to watch. If broken, i think 2.20 akan datang. The average traded volume of 2.2 mil should qualify this stock as slow. If the market lacks interest in this stock, then the movement will be slow... continue to ponder...
IndoAgri: It has hit resistance and offers an excellent risk to reward trade based on current price. My only concern is if OPEC cuts production, it may spur a rally in palm oil related counters. Indices at current levels offer little incentive to add to my shorts because i suspect it may bounce off support instead of crashing through it.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Focus is on bailout plan
With the bailout plan delayed for another week, it leaves the market in anticipation. I rather they get on with it and let the plan out. Market dislike uncertainty and i should expect the support and resistance to hold if there are no major newsflow. Otherwise, if we look at the bigger picture, we are in this trading range. The only consolation is that this trading range is huge and it is possible to profit from both long and short. What i fear most is an illiquid market with tight range. However this is also the first sign of market bottom. Read any trading books, you will know market bottom is usually not volatile and slow.
I have squared off most of my positions after CNY and indeed it is heart wrenching to see Cosco and Capitaland closed lower after i covered my shorts. Although i am already in this business for so long, i am human afterall. I do feel Cake sim with bad positions too. Frustration and greed do manifest in me. All these years, it has been a constant battle with the inner self. I am left with only HSI short position. Here i am keeping this short because my opinion is still of a bear market and i don't see any reason for HSI not to trade closer to 10k. Hence technically i am looking out for key levels to trade HSI. My last short position is about 13,700 points which is the neckline of the double top on HSI. There was a successful re-test of this neckline as a resistance. I am trading based on weekly and daily chart and thus qualify myself as a position trader rather than scalper. This will allow me to focus on work and only make trading decision near market closing hour. Friday's closing as well as 4pm to 5pm is more important to me. Similarly, if i am trading forex or futures where i am looking at the 30min or 15min chart, my focus is on how the candle will close. Hence my first objective is to see HSI re-test the 12.1k level... if it cracks, i think we might see lower. Otherwise, we may still be in the range. When will i cover? Either i buy back at support or if there is any bullish news. Otherwise, i may even add if support cracks. As for Singapore stocks, current levels ain't interesting to me as yet. Let's see how the week opens.
After the barrage of signals during first week of Jan, i did not receive any good signal as yet. This may be because of the trading range that we are in. This is where if you are using trend-following signals, you are bound to lose. Hence even user has to be discerning upon when to use what strategy. Otherwise those unneccessary losses will kill you mentally and hurt you pockets.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
I have squared off most of my positions after CNY and indeed it is heart wrenching to see Cosco and Capitaland closed lower after i covered my shorts. Although i am already in this business for so long, i am human afterall. I do feel Cake sim with bad positions too. Frustration and greed do manifest in me. All these years, it has been a constant battle with the inner self. I am left with only HSI short position. Here i am keeping this short because my opinion is still of a bear market and i don't see any reason for HSI not to trade closer to 10k. Hence technically i am looking out for key levels to trade HSI. My last short position is about 13,700 points which is the neckline of the double top on HSI. There was a successful re-test of this neckline as a resistance. I am trading based on weekly and daily chart and thus qualify myself as a position trader rather than scalper. This will allow me to focus on work and only make trading decision near market closing hour. Friday's closing as well as 4pm to 5pm is more important to me. Similarly, if i am trading forex or futures where i am looking at the 30min or 15min chart, my focus is on how the candle will close. Hence my first objective is to see HSI re-test the 12.1k level... if it cracks, i think we might see lower. Otherwise, we may still be in the range. When will i cover? Either i buy back at support or if there is any bullish news. Otherwise, i may even add if support cracks. As for Singapore stocks, current levels ain't interesting to me as yet. Let's see how the week opens.
After the barrage of signals during first week of Jan, i did not receive any good signal as yet. This may be because of the trading range that we are in. This is where if you are using trend-following signals, you are bound to lose. Hence even user has to be discerning upon when to use what strategy. Otherwise those unneccessary losses will kill you mentally and hurt you pockets.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
开工大吉！
My anticipation of sub 7k didn't materialise and i watch in disappointment during the holidays as New York stayed afloat 8k and Barclay's confident statement boosted FTSE. These lead to a big run up above 8k by Nikkei. So much so i had no interest in playing blackjack as my mind was pre-occupied on my post CNY trades. Alas today i took my profits off Capitaland(SGX) and Cosco(SGX). Cut my losses on TOPGLOV (KLSE) and accidentally turned long because i went long more than what i had shorted. Since it's in ringgit and a relatively small position to test poems platform it doesn't worry me so long it doesn't breakdown hard tomorrow. The other bad trade, AAPL (Nasdaq) continues to cause me diarrhoea. What a poisonous fruit. Hearsay snow white went into a coma after eating the same apple..... AAPL was cut moments ago.. if suay, it may hit US$100 before a retracement. Also, since it was a bad mistake, i rather cut. How stupid can it be to be riding losses and cut profits fast? Now i'm left with a KLSE stock long and a HSI short. Unless the vote doesn't get through otherwise HSI sure tua gap up... then my profits contracts again. #@$@#!$%#@#! Why~~~ why can't i one time hoot tio seh?! Guess it's no use complaining. Nevertheless let's look forward to the next trade. By the way, hearsay my chinese zodiac say this year i meet gui ren and will tua tua huat leh! not bad hor.. nan dao this year really i can hoot tua tua? Not only this, my wife warns me about the tao hua this year.. hearsay i be got a lot of tao hua in Ox year! hahaha *sing*路边的野花不要采，不采白不采！ kekeke
One of the reasons i covered my shorts is because there are upside surprises to some of the data which came out. Corporate wise, internet & technology companies appear to continue to be performing well. Nan dao tech sector will pull this economy out of trouble again just like 1998? Governments appear to be locked in arms to stimulate the economy, the success is anybody's guess. What's important to me is, market is taking these positively and i shouldn't be a stubborn bear. I only have two choices, either i ride out this rebound or i take my profits first and wait at MTL levels. I chosen the latter. Obama stimulus plan is on the votes tonight and there seems to be alot of econ data coming out which can mean a big swing to the upside may be possible. I find it very useful to measure the kind of emotion i am going through each time i take a loss or a win. Like now, although i made profits, but, i am not happy as yet. My mind is not focussing on the profits, i am already hungry for the next trade. Currently i am feeling very uncomfortable because i am sitting on too much cash and can't wait to grow them.
Watch the bailout plan... the last one sprang nasty surprise when unexpectedly the market reacted negatively to it and we had the worse month of the year. We are still dead locked in a range, hence to short, i prefer a break of the support or at the resistance. It requires patience to get to MTL levels.
Friday may be what many people will expect a rough time as US's GDP numbers will be out. While no one expect it to do well, but if it performs better than worse market can still rally. Why do i get a feeling, unless another big company goes under, otherwise i don't see the market going any lower and it makes sense to be a bull now. Or should i say Ox. Well at least until we see market starts to react to bad news. Now, even if we are moving higher, let us watchout and be nimble at resistances.
Due to the light volume, today's big rally should be discounted. With no good stocks from my screening, i opt to stay out and observe. Perhaps my favourite Thursday night may yield good stocks.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
One of the reasons i covered my shorts is because there are upside surprises to some of the data which came out. Corporate wise, internet & technology companies appear to continue to be performing well. Nan dao tech sector will pull this economy out of trouble again just like 1998? Governments appear to be locked in arms to stimulate the economy, the success is anybody's guess. What's important to me is, market is taking these positively and i shouldn't be a stubborn bear. I only have two choices, either i ride out this rebound or i take my profits first and wait at MTL levels. I chosen the latter. Obama stimulus plan is on the votes tonight and there seems to be alot of econ data coming out which can mean a big swing to the upside may be possible. I find it very useful to measure the kind of emotion i am going through each time i take a loss or a win. Like now, although i made profits, but, i am not happy as yet. My mind is not focussing on the profits, i am already hungry for the next trade. Currently i am feeling very uncomfortable because i am sitting on too much cash and can't wait to grow them.
Watch the bailout plan... the last one sprang nasty surprise when unexpectedly the market reacted negatively to it and we had the worse month of the year. We are still dead locked in a range, hence to short, i prefer a break of the support or at the resistance. It requires patience to get to MTL levels.
Friday may be what many people will expect a rough time as US's GDP numbers will be out. While no one expect it to do well, but if it performs better than worse market can still rally. Why do i get a feeling, unless another big company goes under, otherwise i don't see the market going any lower and it makes sense to be a bull now. Or should i say Ox. Well at least until we see market starts to react to bad news. Now, even if we are moving higher, let us watchout and be nimble at resistances.
Due to the light volume, today's big rally should be discounted. With no good stocks from my screening, i opt to stay out and observe. Perhaps my favourite Thursday night may yield good stocks.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Happy Chinese Gu Year!
My schedule is fully booked all the way to Saturday evening 7pm. Yes this is how many events ChartNexus has lined up in recent months. The best part... everyday is almost 17 hours long... including events plus office work plus trading...really can feel fatique... though tired... my mind is not at ease unless i blogged tonight. For i am waiting for thursday night to affirm my market opinion. Before i commence on my trading plan, let me first thank you all for your kind support all these years. Whether you are ChartNexus user, Graduate or just drop by to visit, i wish you all the best in health and wealth in the gu year! Huat arh!
All week long the market swings up and swings down.... but my heart and sight were set on Thursday closing. My focus is on the key support levels of major indices and most stocks. Now with such a closing, my bearish view is more or less certain and i look forward to more profits and may even keep my shorts over the new year and add more. Capland is now firmly in profit but my cosco is bery disappointing... still holding above 80 cts.. HSI is also deep in profit and i may see 11.8k akan datang? So long Dow and Nikkei stay below 8k... i think HSI won't be able to pop up. Although i am right about the market direction this time, let me assure you i am not always right all the time. I merely traded with an opinion and follow my plan. If you read the post from Monday, you will know i did not predict today's market outcome. I am anticipating and then trade accordingly. Just like beginning of the year, i was bull but was quick to realise i was wrong and quickly turn to short till today. Trading is really not that difficult if you are willing to put time and effort in learning the craft and most importantly observe and remember what had happened. This is because history always like to repeat itself... but in different shapes and sizes. Heard about cause and effect? To know where the market is heading, we must know what had happened before or happening now. This is how i conjure anticipations.
Currently i have two bad positions in the market. TopGlov of KLSE and AAPL of Nasdaq. Especially for the bad position on AAPL, i must elaborate. I actually deserved it. This is because i didn't do my due dilligence. I shorted AAPL just because i feel Dow will close below 8k by Friday and totally unaware of the results on the same day i shorted. By now all should know that despite December's super bad retail data, AAPL sold more Ipods and Iphones than expected. Hence now i am sitting on this loss. However i am still lucky as AAPL has gapped up and is trading lower with the dow firmly below 8k... Hence i still have a chance that it will actually close ugly by tomorrow morning.
For tomorrow, if Asia markets closed below MTL levels. I will add to my shorts and keep over the weekend. Otherwise, the only thing i fear is a KRD tomorrow. I have to be wary of that because govt may step in to support the markets at the key levels.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
All week long the market swings up and swings down.... but my heart and sight were set on Thursday closing. My focus is on the key support levels of major indices and most stocks. Now with such a closing, my bearish view is more or less certain and i look forward to more profits and may even keep my shorts over the new year and add more. Capland is now firmly in profit but my cosco is bery disappointing... still holding above 80 cts.. HSI is also deep in profit and i may see 11.8k akan datang? So long Dow and Nikkei stay below 8k... i think HSI won't be able to pop up. Although i am right about the market direction this time, let me assure you i am not always right all the time. I merely traded with an opinion and follow my plan. If you read the post from Monday, you will know i did not predict today's market outcome. I am anticipating and then trade accordingly. Just like beginning of the year, i was bull but was quick to realise i was wrong and quickly turn to short till today. Trading is really not that difficult if you are willing to put time and effort in learning the craft and most importantly observe and remember what had happened. This is because history always like to repeat itself... but in different shapes and sizes. Heard about cause and effect? To know where the market is heading, we must know what had happened before or happening now. This is how i conjure anticipations.
Currently i have two bad positions in the market. TopGlov of KLSE and AAPL of Nasdaq. Especially for the bad position on AAPL, i must elaborate. I actually deserved it. This is because i didn't do my due dilligence. I shorted AAPL just because i feel Dow will close below 8k by Friday and totally unaware of the results on the same day i shorted. By now all should know that despite December's super bad retail data, AAPL sold more Ipods and Iphones than expected. Hence now i am sitting on this loss. However i am still lucky as AAPL has gapped up and is trading lower with the dow firmly below 8k... Hence i still have a chance that it will actually close ugly by tomorrow morning.
For tomorrow, if Asia markets closed below MTL levels. I will add to my shorts and keep over the weekend. Otherwise, the only thing i fear is a KRD tomorrow. I have to be wary of that because govt may step in to support the markets at the key levels.
恭喜发财！
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Dow 8k support cracked
O yes... my account swells up nicely over the last few days. I think the old me would have been grinning ear to ear.. but now older and also wiser, i know these are just paper profits. My mind was actually not on how much profit i have made by now since the start of the year. Rather, i am thinking about the trading opportunities that were coming up ahead. For i know, if i look at the paper profits, the emotion may get the better of my analysis. Singapore market seem to be holding up well. Remember i keep mentioning how a local event may hold up the selling while the rest of the market crashes? It seems to be this is the case happening right now. How can we see bloodshed on HSI, Nikkei plus Dow and we actually finish better than them? If this is not a godsend opportunity, then i don't know what is. So going forward, it is going to be interesting.
Look, as i have always mentioned year after year... Thursday is important as it gives clue to how the week may close. Those who attended the last traders club meeting would know what i am talking about because i shared in a mere 5 mins presentation on my anticipation of the global stock market. Given that Dow is teasing 8k... If Friday night it closes below 8k firmly, then next week will be pretty ugly. And we will be having holidays! Hence who on earth dare to hold on to their positions over the holiday. That's why my focus this week will be whether to add to shorts or cover back before the holidays. I am still pondering... it all depends on Thursday. If anything, i may even add to shorts if we bounce just because of budget day while the rest of the world goes down. I am salivating even thinking about it. At most i hedge my position by playing blackjack over the holidays.. hahaha Look, i think it is wise to risk profits for more gains. Like they say, no enter the tiger's den, no get the cubs.... keke
Alot of stocks are languishing at the support... once cracked... one by one they shall fall... i will exercise patience in waiting.. for i know if i short at support, i am an idiot. Cosco for example, this nut is damn tough to crack! At least my HSI and capland is obedient... cosco i dunno what is it waiting for... maybe it's not it's turn.. maybe it's a chance to load up more shorts? Maybe maybe....
For tonight, i shorted AAPL after monitoring it since Steve Jobs went on medical leave... the poor fella. I respect and like him alot for his spirit and intelligence and business acumen... He spoke at some university graduation and wow... what an inspiring speech... one of the reason why i quit my job as an IT engineer and into the trading world full time.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Look, as i have always mentioned year after year... Thursday is important as it gives clue to how the week may close. Those who attended the last traders club meeting would know what i am talking about because i shared in a mere 5 mins presentation on my anticipation of the global stock market. Given that Dow is teasing 8k... If Friday night it closes below 8k firmly, then next week will be pretty ugly. And we will be having holidays! Hence who on earth dare to hold on to their positions over the holiday. That's why my focus this week will be whether to add to shorts or cover back before the holidays. I am still pondering... it all depends on Thursday. If anything, i may even add to shorts if we bounce just because of budget day while the rest of the world goes down. I am salivating even thinking about it. At most i hedge my position by playing blackjack over the holidays.. hahaha Look, i think it is wise to risk profits for more gains. Like they say, no enter the tiger's den, no get the cubs.... keke
Alot of stocks are languishing at the support... once cracked... one by one they shall fall... i will exercise patience in waiting.. for i know if i short at support, i am an idiot. Cosco for example, this nut is damn tough to crack! At least my HSI and capland is obedient... cosco i dunno what is it waiting for... maybe it's not it's turn.. maybe it's a chance to load up more shorts? Maybe maybe....
For tonight, i shorted AAPL after monitoring it since Steve Jobs went on medical leave... the poor fella. I respect and like him alot for his spirit and intelligence and business acumen... He spoke at some university graduation and wow... what an inspiring speech... one of the reason why i quit my job as an IT engineer and into the trading world full time.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Bradley turn date is here!
The bradley turn date which i am wary of since last week is finally here. This is known as astrology analysis... how come so coincidence that the Obama inauguration is on this day? Nan dao... it's really tian yi? keke Anyway, for the next few weeks, i would be busy at my work desk because i got some projects running and talking to some brokerage houses on marketing campaigns. That's why you don't see me chatting on the blog... but i will be back after i close some corporate deals. wahahaha
We had our traders club meeting tonight and the outcome of the meeting is everyone is looking to short once support gives way. With the current rebound in the stock market.... it is time to look out for those highs to ambush again. Current levels are still too close to support. Hence it's better for me to wait for the rebound to end. Still holding on to my shorts. I think by Thursday, i will know whether i am right or wrong for my bearish view. Meanwhile just twiddle fingers and wait for Dow to trade tomorrow night! Currently FTSE is threatening to break 4k... if only HSI and Nikkei leads STI to holland... then it will be a good CNY... keke
A pretty muted market today... volume seems to have been dwindling down after the roaring start to 2009. It is important to observe how market reacts to the new budget this Thursday. So the question to ask should be what is the plan if the market rallies after the announcement, or what is the plan if the market falls after it. The wrong question to ask is, will market goes up or down after the budget. This type of question only causes confusions as you will be trying to guess the direction. You are not in control and also don't know what to look out for.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
We had our traders club meeting tonight and the outcome of the meeting is everyone is looking to short once support gives way. With the current rebound in the stock market.... it is time to look out for those highs to ambush again. Current levels are still too close to support. Hence it's better for me to wait for the rebound to end. Still holding on to my shorts. I think by Thursday, i will know whether i am right or wrong for my bearish view. Meanwhile just twiddle fingers and wait for Dow to trade tomorrow night! Currently FTSE is threatening to break 4k... if only HSI and Nikkei leads STI to holland... then it will be a good CNY... keke
A pretty muted market today... volume seems to have been dwindling down after the roaring start to 2009. It is important to observe how market reacts to the new budget this Thursday. So the question to ask should be what is the plan if the market rallies after the announcement, or what is the plan if the market falls after it. The wrong question to ask is, will market goes up or down after the budget. This type of question only causes confusions as you will be trying to guess the direction. You are not in control and also don't know what to look out for.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Singapore to tap reserves?
I thought i heard wrongly... did you guys watched the news tonight? Did they really mention about tapping into the national reserves? In recent history, i can only remember the late president Mr Ong Teng Cheong wanted to tap the reserves... if they are thinking to do it now... i think it speaks volume about the current global financial crisis. Even Obama and Bush keep hinting that they cannot wait anymore and need the bail out plan to be approved. How about the recent banks news? They did not fail to beat estimates on the downside... woah~~ As GC would put it, even my Morgan Stanley short could make money... i think the world is really in trouble.
Technically what i see is currently we are at this delicate junction. We have turned down from the 20-weeks moving average in most of the index charts. This is also the reason why i am sticking to my shorts. To me, yes maybe there could be a rebound since the market is over-sold. But what happen afterwards? Most of the folks i talked to are predicting a sell off after CNY. Hence my choices include to "loon" this rebound and then add to shorts. Otherwise, i can run first and look to short when the market turns. Seriously, the greed is getting to me and on some occassions i can't bear to take the profits. I have no problems in taking small losses... however to miss profits... i feel that is one of the most excruciating pain one can ever feel... in hokkien it's called "cake sim"... sleep can be affected and depression may set in.
If we falls further from here, i think we can safely declare that we are going to test the October's low. Look guys, if market is going to close higher in 2009, it can always go down first and then back to 2000 level near Dec'09. How possible it is to keep going higher till Dec'09? Fundamentally, there is no reason to buy now... technically, the stock market hasn't gone through a market base. For those who is interested to know what to look out for in a market bottom, either do a google, or you can search this blog.. i think i wrote about it many years ago.
If you look at Suntec, the sudden selling is a grim reminder that we are in a bear market. It was moving up nicely until the 5-day decline. It is not the only stock that has behaved this way... infact reits counters may be late. I recall since late last year, i notice this pattern of pump and dump in numerous sectors.
US will be taking Mon and Tues off....our market will be at the mercy of HSI and Nikkei. HSI like what i said before has failed at the weekly chart resistance. Delicate... if it can close above the current levels... it can spur another rally. OTherwise, if i am right, then 12.3k akan datang. As for my shorts on capitaland and cosco, i may have to loon the rebound for now... i am getting uncomfortable with the dojis.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Technically what i see is currently we are at this delicate junction. We have turned down from the 20-weeks moving average in most of the index charts. This is also the reason why i am sticking to my shorts. To me, yes maybe there could be a rebound since the market is over-sold. But what happen afterwards? Most of the folks i talked to are predicting a sell off after CNY. Hence my choices include to "loon" this rebound and then add to shorts. Otherwise, i can run first and look to short when the market turns. Seriously, the greed is getting to me and on some occassions i can't bear to take the profits. I have no problems in taking small losses... however to miss profits... i feel that is one of the most excruciating pain one can ever feel... in hokkien it's called "cake sim"... sleep can be affected and depression may set in.
If we falls further from here, i think we can safely declare that we are going to test the October's low. Look guys, if market is going to close higher in 2009, it can always go down first and then back to 2000 level near Dec'09. How possible it is to keep going higher till Dec'09? Fundamentally, there is no reason to buy now... technically, the stock market hasn't gone through a market base. For those who is interested to know what to look out for in a market bottom, either do a google, or you can search this blog.. i think i wrote about it many years ago.
If you look at Suntec, the sudden selling is a grim reminder that we are in a bear market. It was moving up nicely until the 5-day decline. It is not the only stock that has behaved this way... infact reits counters may be late. I recall since late last year, i notice this pattern of pump and dump in numerous sectors.
US will be taking Mon and Tues off....our market will be at the mercy of HSI and Nikkei. HSI like what i said before has failed at the weekly chart resistance. Delicate... if it can close above the current levels... it can spur another rally. OTherwise, if i am right, then 12.3k akan datang. As for my shorts on capitaland and cosco, i may have to loon the rebound for now... i am getting uncomfortable with the dojis.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Dow kissing 8000 points
My 东风 finally arrived... i am happy that my patience paid off handsomely as all my short positions swing into profits finally. The bad retail sales figure crashed the 8.3k support on Dow... i was thinking whether to take profit... but a check on the charts... it seems like there is more downside to capitaland and cosco? Why the heck is it not breaking 80 cts? What's so good about it's business or results? Is it setting up for a big sell down in coming days? The brief rebound during the intra-day did affected me. I began to hallucinate, what if the market rebounds and my handsome profit becomes a whimper? For much of the day, i was actually trying hard to not think about it. Mentally i have set the stops to where i will run road. I am so glad when the market closed at the lows... All eyes will be on Dow's 8000 support tonight. This may be the defence line for the confidence of the market... break that, HSI 12,300 akan datang? The best way to calm myself down is that i am risking a portion of my profits for bigger profits.... it made sense.. even if it rebounds tomorrow, at least i know, i tried to win big... i am willing to accept a smaller profit. Anyway, wasn't i wrong just last week about market and it made me realise where is the money to be made? Hence i won't rule out turning long just for the sake of a possible bounce next week. SGX at $4.70 may be delicious..
For those of you who have been faithfully reading this blog, i hope the last two's blog posting has shown you how i admitted i was wrong about the market going upwards and subsequently i began to build my short positions. I was never sure that the market is going to come down. I merely formed a market opinion based on technical analysis and trade my opinion. The trick is, when you are wrong, do not be stubborn but readily accept your mistake and move on. I have seen so many people got burnt in the stock market because their ego and pride took over them and they stuck to their mistakes through thick and thin...an opinion about the market is worth nothing unless you make money from it. The next important thing is, when we are wrong, we lose small... but when we are right, hoot tua tua!! dare dare win big! Most importantly... i hope this inspire you that, if i being a friendly neighbourhood blogger can do it, so can you!
My profit target for Morgan Stanley was hit at US$16.. This is so much easier than my options days... where there are so many things to check... no doubt the leverage is higher... well, actually if you realise it, it is the ability to identify the direction of the price that is more important. That's why through the years, people ask me, which is better? Stocks, forex, futures, options? i tell them the ability to forecast direction is the most important as knowing it will allow you to have the ability to trade any of the financial instrument.
The weak closing of the stock market caught my eye when i returned to office in the afternoon.... i was actually out for a meeting most of the day. Following which, i shorted a malaysia stock which has been going up unbelievably.
Thursday nights are always important to me as i will try to forecast and visualise how the week will close. Now as seen on the above chart. It is trading at the resistance (blue line). Hence my opinion is, Dow close lower and that this stock which rally so high will be resisted right here and died from there down to at least RM3.80. With the profit from Morgan Stanley secured, i will risk it for this trade.
Tonight my eyes are on APPLE INC. There is a big D-triangle formed and now it has broken out of the resistance.. however there is still a minor low at US$79 to be taken out... following that, downside at least to a possible US$72. However, AAPL is now trading higher at US$81. I shall bide my time... unless sleepiness take over me.
I left my cosco, capitaland and hsi shorts open....I waiting to see Dow breaks 8k. Breaking 8.3k is a very significant matter and it may have put a dent to the confidence of this market. It is currently flirting around 8000 tonight... i just need one more night... just one more night to crash through it and i shall take my year-start bonus willingly and celebrate CNY earlier... keke C'mon, just one more night! Let's break 8000 points!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
For those of you who have been faithfully reading this blog, i hope the last two's blog posting has shown you how i admitted i was wrong about the market going upwards and subsequently i began to build my short positions. I was never sure that the market is going to come down. I merely formed a market opinion based on technical analysis and trade my opinion. The trick is, when you are wrong, do not be stubborn but readily accept your mistake and move on. I have seen so many people got burnt in the stock market because their ego and pride took over them and they stuck to their mistakes through thick and thin...an opinion about the market is worth nothing unless you make money from it. The next important thing is, when we are wrong, we lose small... but when we are right, hoot tua tua!! dare dare win big! Most importantly... i hope this inspire you that, if i being a friendly neighbourhood blogger can do it, so can you!
My profit target for Morgan Stanley was hit at US$16.. This is so much easier than my options days... where there are so many things to check... no doubt the leverage is higher... well, actually if you realise it, it is the ability to identify the direction of the price that is more important. That's why through the years, people ask me, which is better? Stocks, forex, futures, options? i tell them the ability to forecast direction is the most important as knowing it will allow you to have the ability to trade any of the financial instrument.
The weak closing of the stock market caught my eye when i returned to office in the afternoon.... i was actually out for a meeting most of the day. Following which, i shorted a malaysia stock which has been going up unbelievably.
Thursday nights are always important to me as i will try to forecast and visualise how the week will close. Now as seen on the above chart. It is trading at the resistance (blue line). Hence my opinion is, Dow close lower and that this stock which rally so high will be resisted right here and died from there down to at least RM3.80. With the profit from Morgan Stanley secured, i will risk it for this trade.
Tonight my eyes are on APPLE INC. There is a big D-triangle formed and now it has broken out of the resistance.. however there is still a minor low at US$79 to be taken out... following that, downside at least to a possible US$72. However, AAPL is now trading higher at US$81. I shall bide my time... unless sleepiness take over me.
I left my cosco, capitaland and hsi shorts open....I waiting to see Dow breaks 8k. Breaking 8.3k is a very significant matter and it may have put a dent to the confidence of this market. It is currently flirting around 8000 tonight... i just need one more night... just one more night to crash through it and i shall take my year-start bonus willingly and celebrate CNY earlier... keke C'mon, just one more night! Let's break 8000 points!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Can the support holds? I hope not!
It wasn't the kind of start i would have liked. STI threatens on the upside and most stocks rallied. To say i was unflustered would be a big lie. I had thought about turning long from here due to the surprising strength. Thoughts about budget day rally, obama rally filled my head... what if i am wrong and today is a key reversal day? I had to calm myself down and focus on my trading plan... that still won't do. I began to visualise my loss if i am wrong. At most i will lose my 2009 profits but if i am right, i will make more than what i had already made in 2009. Wasn't my new year resolution to be more agressive and win big money in 2009? Then why am i so fearful to risk my profits? If i lose them, i will just have to grind the profits back again and then once again look to take bigger risk! With that in mind, i stood up and jio R for an early lunch.
After my lunch, i got more and more confused, why is STI so firm despite a weak Nikkei? Even HSI wasn't moving much. I reminded myself of 2006... that year when because of an election in Singapore, we bucked the trend and afterwards paid back in double the time. Hence so long Nikkei doesn't look good, i'm keeping to my shorts. Boy am i glad to see HSI teasing 13.8k which is my MTL level after lunch. Also, STI majam punchek and we saw huge retracement. I heave a huge sigh of relief! After the 13.8k gave way, i somersaulted my long position in HSI to a short position at around 13,700. By closing, it was a joy to see both my capland and cosco back to day lows. However after i checked my charts after the market closed... the volume is actually nothing to shout about. Worse of all, capitaland actually finished with a graveyard doji, similar to STI. Now i need this doji to fail. Otherwise, i'm back to sq 1. HSI weakness is startling. I wonder why the big weakness. Or is market setting up for a big rally next week?
Now it will be silly of me to submerse myself in joy too soon.... the battle hasn't been won yet. Like Zhou yu said in Red Cliff II, whether i win or lose, it depends on tonight. Zhuge Liang predicted the "Dong" wind... similarly, i need Dow to close below 8.3k or below 8k would be even better by end of the week since econ data is due out. Otherwise Obama to say something negative about the stimulus package is also welcomed. Hence my plan would be to take profits on the way down. If heaven is unkind and decide to punish me for my shorts, i will look see how the week close and where possible may add shorts on the way up if i find the market in selling mode. The pump and sell syndrome looks to be happening recently.
Midas - today's heavy dumping is very uncommon for a stock with such a good base in a bull market. Maybe afterall we are really not in a bull market anymore since it is 2 months since the last October low. Like what GC said, i never make any money when i go long and instead i seem to make whenever i short. Doesn't it means prices are not going up but coming down?
SPH - my pain and regret... i am silly enough to think that being a defensive stock, the downside is limited. My sell signal actually came in at the last Traders club meeting but because it is usually very slow, i choose to ignore it. Never thought this elephant can make at least 10%... 4T%@$%@#%#$
STI - It has a graveyard doji at support... tomorrow if we have a confirmation... my shorts have to be careful already. On the weekly chart, i am still hallucinating a long black candle... keke
If you are looking at FX, this is really a wierd day... even FX major pairs are jumping off the cliff... c'mon, i waited for so long..... let this be one of my memorable year!.....lao arh market! lao arh!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
After my lunch, i got more and more confused, why is STI so firm despite a weak Nikkei? Even HSI wasn't moving much. I reminded myself of 2006... that year when because of an election in Singapore, we bucked the trend and afterwards paid back in double the time. Hence so long Nikkei doesn't look good, i'm keeping to my shorts. Boy am i glad to see HSI teasing 13.8k which is my MTL level after lunch. Also, STI majam punchek and we saw huge retracement. I heave a huge sigh of relief! After the 13.8k gave way, i somersaulted my long position in HSI to a short position at around 13,700. By closing, it was a joy to see both my capland and cosco back to day lows. However after i checked my charts after the market closed... the volume is actually nothing to shout about. Worse of all, capitaland actually finished with a graveyard doji, similar to STI. Now i need this doji to fail. Otherwise, i'm back to sq 1. HSI weakness is startling. I wonder why the big weakness. Or is market setting up for a big rally next week?
Now it will be silly of me to submerse myself in joy too soon.... the battle hasn't been won yet. Like Zhou yu said in Red Cliff II, whether i win or lose, it depends on tonight. Zhuge Liang predicted the "Dong" wind... similarly, i need Dow to close below 8.3k or below 8k would be even better by end of the week since econ data is due out. Otherwise Obama to say something negative about the stimulus package is also welcomed. Hence my plan would be to take profits on the way down. If heaven is unkind and decide to punish me for my shorts, i will look see how the week close and where possible may add shorts on the way up if i find the market in selling mode. The pump and sell syndrome looks to be happening recently.
Midas - today's heavy dumping is very uncommon for a stock with such a good base in a bull market. Maybe afterall we are really not in a bull market anymore since it is 2 months since the last October low. Like what GC said, i never make any money when i go long and instead i seem to make whenever i short. Doesn't it means prices are not going up but coming down?
SPH - my pain and regret... i am silly enough to think that being a defensive stock, the downside is limited. My sell signal actually came in at the last Traders club meeting but because it is usually very slow, i choose to ignore it. Never thought this elephant can make at least 10%... 4T%@$%@#%#$
STI - It has a graveyard doji at support... tomorrow if we have a confirmation... my shorts have to be careful already. On the weekly chart, i am still hallucinating a long black candle... keke
If you are looking at FX, this is really a wierd day... even FX major pairs are jumping off the cliff... c'mon, i waited for so long..... let this be one of my memorable year!.....lao arh market! lao arh!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Rally or rally not?
By now the burning question on everybody's mind will be, will there be a rally? We are just one week away from the important calendar events. The market is showing alot of weakness here. Some of the stocks had broken support levels. One good example was SGX, how i was long and had to cut when the market turned ugly on Friday. Boy am i glad i had been disciplined. The rest like banks and properties were mercilessly sold down. Not to mention Off shore as well. Recalling what i wrote about keeping close tab on offshore and observe how it did not re-challenge the resistance while props and banks rallied. This is what i call sector analysis.
Look, if you are new to trading, it is important for you to always study the bigger picture first before trading individual stock. If you had observed since last October, it will not be difficult to see that what lead the market in the rebound was offshore, props and banks. The rest is what i call supporting plays... just like "Tao jie" in little nonya or "Yuzhu" or "Liu yi dao"... the stars are clearly chen xi and yueniang cum juxiang. This is just my way of reading the market and i may be wrong here.
I missed the Jan rally because i saw offshore as a warning sign when it fails to break the resistance. When props start to fall, i know market is coming down and hence shorted. Remember i had wanted to be a bull. But offshore is giving signs... then when offshore and banks are coming off, i think i have to kiss my bullishness goodbye. Now, all will be lost if, we tank big time from here lead by a nervy market or bad news. Otherwise, we may just be a trading range. I must say, we are hanging precauriously at support levels. Some support levels have already given way and that is bad...
How to use the bradley turn date to your advantage? Simple, the week leading to the date is most important. If we are down, then the date shall reverse the market higher, if we are higher, the date will reverse the market lower. If market trades sideways to the date, then god bless the stock market. haha
Semb Mar: Like most offshores, this stock suffered the same fate. This one still has some meat left should I intend to short on breakout to the downside. The dojis two days earlier is a grim reminder of how tricky the market has been where it mislead the market into thinking there is some form of support. Upon close scrunity, it reminded me that dojis are only powderful when it is accompanied by high volume.
Midas: Interesting stock screened from high-volume rule. The sound base actually caught my attention sometime back however due to my cautiousness i was waiting for 0.48 before attempting a shot at it. Looks like i won't get it at that price anymore... breakout play suggest possible target of 0.715. Isn't it just wierd! When most stocks are losing their ground, the base of this stock look very sound based on volume and price actions.
HSI and my MTL level. Win-win situation... break it i will somersault my long position into short. rebound? i can add to my long position.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Look, if you are new to trading, it is important for you to always study the bigger picture first before trading individual stock. If you had observed since last October, it will not be difficult to see that what lead the market in the rebound was offshore, props and banks. The rest is what i call supporting plays... just like "Tao jie" in little nonya or "Yuzhu" or "Liu yi dao"... the stars are clearly chen xi and yueniang cum juxiang. This is just my way of reading the market and i may be wrong here.
I missed the Jan rally because i saw offshore as a warning sign when it fails to break the resistance. When props start to fall, i know market is coming down and hence shorted. Remember i had wanted to be a bull. But offshore is giving signs... then when offshore and banks are coming off, i think i have to kiss my bullishness goodbye. Now, all will be lost if, we tank big time from here lead by a nervy market or bad news. Otherwise, we may just be a trading range. I must say, we are hanging precauriously at support levels. Some support levels have already given way and that is bad...
How to use the bradley turn date to your advantage? Simple, the week leading to the date is most important. If we are down, then the date shall reverse the market higher, if we are higher, the date will reverse the market lower. If market trades sideways to the date, then god bless the stock market. haha
Semb Mar: Like most offshores, this stock suffered the same fate. This one still has some meat left should I intend to short on breakout to the downside. The dojis two days earlier is a grim reminder of how tricky the market has been where it mislead the market into thinking there is some form of support. Upon close scrunity, it reminded me that dojis are only powderful when it is accompanied by high volume.
Midas: Interesting stock screened from high-volume rule. The sound base actually caught my attention sometime back however due to my cautiousness i was waiting for 0.48 before attempting a shot at it. Looks like i won't get it at that price anymore... breakout play suggest possible target of 0.715. Isn't it just wierd! When most stocks are losing their ground, the base of this stock look very sound based on volume and price actions.
HSI and my MTL level. Win-win situation... break it i will somersault my long position into short. rebound? i can add to my long position.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Wicked twist
If my memory did not fail me, the market had ignored alot of bad news last few weeks and edge higher. The news recently is full of job losses and more job cuts to come. In a typical theoretical market bottom, it is said that when the market is full of pessimism, that is where the bottom is. However, we must see a typical bottom action technically in the market inorder to supplement the above statement. That is, the market should trade in small bodied candles and form a good base amidst the extreme pessimism. What we are seeing now maybe a bear market rally. Right now, i could feel the market is starting to weigh in on the massive job losses that is going on around the globe.
Alas, nothing has changed...the current graduating adults is facing what i was going through once... i remember that jobs were hard to come by and the recruit section was as thin as toilet paper. That is when i know, i cannot depend on employment... especially once we are into our 40s... the fear factor will be there. Sometimes when the companies lay off, it is not based on performance, it is based on job functions being outsourced. And when we are in the 40s... tough man... at least that's what i think. That's what draws me to trading. The most empowering thought is, no one can take this away from me and i will only get more valuable as i age.... just like a vintage pinot.. wahaha The worse part is if Obama subscribes to protectionism, will he move jobs back to US?
My anticipation of a grand stand finale didn't materialise on Friday. At noon, when the market started to head higher bolstered by nikkei's surge, i covered my F&N short and turn long on SGX while still keeping my HSI long betting the strong finale. News filtered in in the afternoon about cosco's projects cancellation about 3pm and couple that, HSI started peeling off again. I visioned the weekly charts of HSI and STI, we are at resistance and if we failed here, it would be better to be cautious because market can turn down from here as we have rebounded nearly 20% off the lows of October. What's more, STI has this shooting star on the weekly chart at the 20-week MA... how not to be bearish? Such a good volume week and we are unable to close higher... "pump and sell" syndrome? Hence i shorted 2 stocks and cut my SGX in succession on Friday. Cosco & Capitaland. Both broke key support levels. With Dow's weak closing, Monday morning should see selling... it is how the market absorb the selling that will be of key interest to me. To me, now i'm going to be a bear and see how low can market goes before the rally. I'm still keeping my HSI long until the 13.8k is broken. No doubt it is a drag on my profits. But if the market do an unexpected, and tua rally from mid-week, then i will make more money! Otherwise eat kachang puteh for now...
HSI: If anything, Monday's weak opening may be a good chance to long HSI. So long the triangle trendline is not compromised and the 13.8k holds. It could be a bear trap to kill all the bears and then tua rally from here to at least 15,500s where we have to be careful again. The last round it failed at 15,800, i was slow to short because my anticipation was a firm and strong market which is wrong for now. Now why am i so hooked on HSI? This is because it leads STI most of the time and not to mention the S-shares... hence when we see HSI has a chance to reverse...we can look at S-shares for opportunities!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Alas, nothing has changed...the current graduating adults is facing what i was going through once... i remember that jobs were hard to come by and the recruit section was as thin as toilet paper. That is when i know, i cannot depend on employment... especially once we are into our 40s... the fear factor will be there. Sometimes when the companies lay off, it is not based on performance, it is based on job functions being outsourced. And when we are in the 40s... tough man... at least that's what i think. That's what draws me to trading. The most empowering thought is, no one can take this away from me and i will only get more valuable as i age.... just like a vintage pinot.. wahaha The worse part is if Obama subscribes to protectionism, will he move jobs back to US?
My anticipation of a grand stand finale didn't materialise on Friday. At noon, when the market started to head higher bolstered by nikkei's surge, i covered my F&N short and turn long on SGX while still keeping my HSI long betting the strong finale. News filtered in in the afternoon about cosco's projects cancellation about 3pm and couple that, HSI started peeling off again. I visioned the weekly charts of HSI and STI, we are at resistance and if we failed here, it would be better to be cautious because market can turn down from here as we have rebounded nearly 20% off the lows of October. What's more, STI has this shooting star on the weekly chart at the 20-week MA... how not to be bearish? Such a good volume week and we are unable to close higher... "pump and sell" syndrome? Hence i shorted 2 stocks and cut my SGX in succession on Friday. Cosco & Capitaland. Both broke key support levels. With Dow's weak closing, Monday morning should see selling... it is how the market absorb the selling that will be of key interest to me. To me, now i'm going to be a bear and see how low can market goes before the rally. I'm still keeping my HSI long until the 13.8k is broken. No doubt it is a drag on my profits. But if the market do an unexpected, and tua rally from mid-week, then i will make more money! Otherwise eat kachang puteh for now...
HSI: If anything, Monday's weak opening may be a good chance to long HSI. So long the triangle trendline is not compromised and the 13.8k holds. It could be a bear trap to kill all the bears and then tua rally from here to at least 15,500s where we have to be careful again. The last round it failed at 15,800, i was slow to short because my anticipation was a firm and strong market which is wrong for now. Now why am i so hooked on HSI? This is because it leads STI most of the time and not to mention the S-shares... hence when we see HSI has a chance to reverse...we can look at S-shares for opportunities!
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
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