Shortists squeezed

For this week, it is not hard to notice many stocks are not going down. Yesterday i covered my noble shorts, and today i took my profits on Ferror after a strong closing. This evening it is expected to report a good set of results and from the actions, it looked like it may be very good. Hence i opt to take my profits off the table first. Currently market is squeezing the shortists... i saw many stocks

ChinaFish has a classic candlestick reversal pattern.... together with many S-shares, a rebound on the cards? Maybe another lower high in the making? Some of them staves off 2008 lows. Interesting. With Dow strong strong ignoring a inflationary CPI... tomolo got chance.

Currently oil price is going south and market shrugs off the strong CPI. CPI was high due to energy prices. Now with oil price slipping, commodities slipping, it brings hope to the market that the CPI will decrease as well. A stronger dollar will also help. After a brief decline, we are now trading near the highs again! I am eyeing USDJPY 110 levels... i will see how market trades at this level. If it doesn't crack or has a bear div, i may initiate a short position. I remember, one of the reason given for the sharp rally in oil price was the decline of the USD. Hence, it is to my benefit to observe the relationship.

I am still eyeing HSI 21k. Today it nearly came to test it.... nevermind, i shall be patience.. to me, it is the most attractive level to long. But if i can't get it, i won't risk more just to go long. I will watch out for the resistance to short then.

I have also heard many ChartNexus users complain to me that my blog is too difficult to understand. Why I sometime long sometime short, sometime have both positions. Here i would explain abit more in details. But fundamentally, i am a technical trader who decipher the market sentiment and psychology. Also, i practise money mgmt. Many would think, money management is only position sizing. But for me, more than it. This is where you decide you make peanuts in the market or creating serious wealth. At my seminar the night before, i had actually wanted to share more... however time was not on my side. Maybe next time. But here's a sneak preview. You can have positions in long and short. But you need to have a core direction. Like for me, i think that the market was coming down since last month. Hence I went on a shorting trip. But found stock like oceanus good to long. Hence my plan is, if i am wrong, market were to head higher, oceanus will run fast while i sq off my shorts. Thus oceanus will keep my profits growing. If market was to go down, then i can sq off oceanus and then my shorts will make me money. But what about if the market doesn't move. This is where your technical analysis comes into play. At the point i made my trades, the market has very good volume and is moving downwards. That's why your timing is important.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Woke up just in time

I am feeling really satisfied as i see my profit grew over the last few days. The timing was inch perfect. The day, i confessed about being losing passion and trying hard to re-ignite my passion, market started to break downwards. I done my homework and all 3 short positions are into profits. Today I cashed out on Noble Grp after 1.85 support refused to crack. Look, i could have taken my profits at a much lower price at 1.79, but nope... I am not God and i cannot predict so accurately that 1.79 is the lowest and best price to take my profit. I can only take when i am convinced Noble group may have a sustainable rebound. I also checked the weekly charts, rebound looks probable. Another thought is, oil price has been heading down, nothing goes down one straight line. Hence the rebound may stir interest in commodities again thus inflict a rebound in Noble. The wise man has this saying, "Profits on the table doesn't belong to you. Profits in the pocket in yours."

These few days, the pattern has been late selling after a brief rebound around lunch time. Traders trading intraday may have been caught off-guarded. I prefer to focus on 2 timings, namely the opening hour and the last hour... from my experience... how the market close is more important than the intra-day swing. Moreover, most of us are working employees hence, we shouldn't be trading intra-day. Face it, do you dare quit your job and trade intra-day full time? This is a valid question as if you are caught trading office hours, you will loose your rice bowl sooner or later. Look, if you bother to read through my blog, it is not hard to notice that, i am trading "End of day" charts. I don't even trade intra-day yet i can still create my wealth from the stock market. Why? This is because, like you, i was once a working employee... i tried to trade intra-day, i can't focus on my work and it suffered. Hence i adjusted my style and began to do position trading. Which means, buying at attractive levels and ride the trend. Of course if there is no trend to speak of, then a profit target must be in place. Even as of now, although i am doing this full time, i am still trading end of day chart. I got so used to it that it became hard for me to look at intra-day. The truth is, intra-day is about scalping. This is where you have to win many many times to see the money. For Position trading, the profit taken is often in huge chunk. Furthermore, the price swing is lesser and volatility is lower, thus is more forgiving for complacency in trading.

With 2 trading days to go, i set my sights on HSI.. the 21k support is coming up....

From the course strategies, there are quite a number of stocks that may see significant rebound. I will be looking for support turns resistance or fibonacci to short again.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A strong Dollar & a weak oil

As the title suggests, this is what drove the market up overnight in the ang mo land. Despite bad news from the financial sector, it still managed to close up 300 points. Very volatile indeed. This is indeed a very challenging time for investors as the market can swing either way wildly. The number one question everyone will be asking is, will we follow Dow? Last few rounds, we are moving opposite direction of Dow. Whenever there is a gap up, it ends up as a black candle. So what i will be observing tomorrow will be follow through buying as well as resistance being taken out. Once this phenomenon is seen plus more follow through buying, then the market direction may have changed. Time to look out for evidence for this. Dow is now exactly at my support turns resistance. It will be very nice for Dow to turn down from you which means it will eventually heads lower.

I'm on 3 short positions. Surely the overnight 300 points rally is disgusting to me. I thought i had nailed it when Dow fell 200 points nicely for my shorts... never in my wildest dream to wake up on a Saturday morning and stare at a 300 points rally. With oil and other commodities continuing their decline, my noble shorts looked safe. Ferro and Yanlord is where i am abit more uncomfortable. I would need HSI and SSE to continue their downward spiral. I am eyeing HSI 21k for support.

Ferro: After a test of the gap, it fell, i am taking this view that it may go lower. I am wrong when it closes the gap and trades above it.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Stock Market bleeds

It's 1:17am now as i am blogging this....hehe back to my old commited self! Just met up old friends and had a wonderful time sharing the past and updating each other..... wah... time really flies...we were only 17 when we hang out at snookerium, KTVs and "ponteng" lectures..... i think a part of my life was missing. I had little memory of what i did from 2005 to 2007 because i was too obssessed with market. I studied my psychological behaviour ever since i shrug off the lazy bug and forced myself to blog. The benefit is i am very close to the market and the "feel" is back. Whenever i am alone, my mind will drift to the charts and i form different market scenarios and my reactions to them. Yes, i do feel a sense of satisfaction from this. Because i quit my job for this last year and trading is what i should be doing. However, it is also hurting my family. While i was still a bachelor, studying this late into the night is not a problem. But it can't be done when you are sharing a roof with ur life partner. No matter how understanding they are, ultimately, they choose to marry us not to be acting like strangers in the same space. Gosh... just how do i balance this. Infact, one of the reason for my "laziness" is that i knew if i were to be as commited as last time, there will be negative impact. But at the same time, if i do not have the highest level of commitment, it will affect my trading. My AGM is coming up.... hence this is a good time where i have to align my priorities to that of my wife's expectations. It is just unfair to her if i am to do my own things and neglected her. Workwise, at ChartNexus, it is hectic... much more hectic than my days as an engineer in HP. We are now organising more and more smaller workshops to help our graduates. We decided that, our super bundles customers trust us to take care of their trading needs and hence we should not neglect them after their course ends. I was speaking to a few of them and was happy that they are able to identify trades and risks pretty well. At least they are in control of their trading. Next will be to share with them through the online forum on picking those golden opportunities.

Finally after 2 weeks of sideways, the market sell off for 4 days and we saw many support levels cracked. STI is now hanging precauriously near the year low. To crack it, it will only trigger more selling. The last round in Aug'07, Fed comes to the rescue and the market rallied for 2 months before crashing. I wonder this time round, where can the good news come from? A common myth about trading is we have to trade intra day to make money. If you look at the way i trade, Cosco, Capitaland, Noble, these short positions are short and hold strategy. I did not bother to trade the intraday swing. This strategy is most suitable for working employees. Most of us hold day job, why trade intraday? Just watch those important levels and take up positions and watch your money grow! I mentioned alot of times over the last few months on how i am only interested to build a portfolio of short positions, it is satisfying to know my market opinion is right. Tabi, it still hurts that i covered Cosco too early and didn't pocket the big crash. The same goes to Capitaland. I didn't want to roll over the contracts as at the point in time, it looks likely market may thin out sideways, hence i didn't want to waste the CFD charges. But at least still got Noble! :D

With my short profits, today i added more shorts positions in Ferro, Yanlord because to me, Dow is tired and at resistance. The odds of coming lower is higher than heading higher. All i ask for is Dow to crash another 3 digits to help in the sell off for our markets. However, it is not hard to notice that recently our markets is indifferent towards what happens in Dow.

Cosco's recent bad run is very suspicious to me. Why would a CEO suddenly retire? Did he mention about it at all before? Maybe another CAO fiasco? It is noted that USD is rallying against all majors and oil price has slipped. Semb Mar last reported problem abt unauthorised trading in forex to hedge.... will cosco..... nan dao..... bu hui ba???

Alot of stocks broke the range and threatening to go lower. If market still has strength, this is where they will rebound. However, looking at how things are going, we came so far to test 2840s, surely there may be a swipe down to kill the bulls?

GrowMoney Quickpicks
Sino-Enviroment


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market drops a bomb shell on investors.

This is exactly what i am wary about taking long positions in the last few weeks. Any swing trades profits would have been wiped out cleanly. Exactly what i went through in 2004. Like my ang mo shi fu said, "Market never changed because humans never change". Even as of now, everyone i met bound to be stuck in some stocks. Alas, the discipline of cutting loss is found wanting. But i just want to assure you guys out there who are stuck at the high. The past doesn't represent the future. Back then, i was a laughing stock in front of my friends. No problem about that, just stay confidence continue to improve so when the next bull market comes, you will be the last one laughing. Maybe not, WE will be the last one laughing. : )
But one thing you should note is, whatever money lost now, you make sure you still have capital. If 90% is stuck, then raise cash....reevaluate your lifestyle and save up your capital to prepare for the future opportunities. Also, do not be in a revenge mode.... bid ur time and wait for the next bull. The market now is tricky and no longer can we make money from it easily. Hence if you are trying to make back your losses, i'm afraid you will do urself more harm then good.

Dow is now up 200 points. It really makes one wonder, why the fierce selling today? I thought market knew something about Dow's performance tonight and hence had reacted first. But looking at dow now, it dispel my suspicions. STI finished the day with a hammer right near support and with the kind of volume, augers well. National Day rally was dismissed early in the week with a heavy down day. But, the week is still young and there is not stopping us from a good 2 day rebound to marikita. Dow's surging run ahead of Ben's meeting suggest the confidence in the market is higher than i expected. 11,700 will be my resistance to beat. Should we go above this, i shall look to long. Otherwise that is yet another level to short for me. If one is comparing Aug'07 hammer with today's one. There is at least one thing not in common. Hence i won't even be considering it.

Friday and Monday saw me collecting Abalones(Oceanus) happiliy... good high volume breakout i thought. But when it finishes with under the resistance on Monday, i knew i was too early and decided to cut my stake prefering an early loss. Trading breakouts requires guts, convictions and discipline. If you are wrong, it is better to run first as the retrace can be quite deep. Also, our course strategy for rebound caught StraitsAsia last week. However, this is a rebound strategy, which means general trend is still down. Hence one must look to sell at resistance. The principle is simple, in a bear market resistance will be strong.

After my screening with XPertTrader... eh... not so bad leh... there are still a couple of strong gainers. Notables are Sino Enviroment, Synear and ChinaEnergy... Most of the S-shares made a late comeback today too. Nandao the Beijing dream is working it's charm?

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Wilmar

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Olympic fever hots up?

Wooo... so many words of encouragements... keke I'm fine i'm fine... i'm just shooting my mouth off here in cyberspace. keke trying to psyche myself up. Actually it's simple, while i have not lost my T.A skills, my psychlogy may have lost abit. Hence what i am doing now is acting out what i was doing when i was passionate abt trading. I think it is logical. It was writting in this trading diary that allowed me time to digest the charts i have seen to form an opinion on the market. Hence inorder to get back this passion, i just need to blog more. Infact, last few rounds of blogging, i already feel more commited. The next more exciting stuff will be the graduates gatherings and tutorial classes that i am going to plan. There are people out there who has attended my course. I intend to setup this support to help this people in trading. While i cannot guarantee you become a millionaire, i want to make you a T.A practitioner!

A scan on XPertTrader showed that many of the China shares are making a comeback. Most of them closed the week with good volume. Perhaps the Olympic effect is working it's magic? I can't say the same for our property counters. Capland's result really got its stock price whacked hard. How obvious can it gets? I remembered reading about it in the newspaper plenty of times about how th property market is getting quiet... not once but plenty of time. Next will be construction sector, but unfortunately they already got whacked.

We paid no attention to the trading in US. There was clearly no follow-through buying or selling whenever there was a massive move in US. With National day coming up, we may just hold it there till the week ends. Olympic may lift us abit if any, but down? I doubt this week we will go down.


Hongxin: This one is Joseph's favourite. :P Bull engulfing pattern based on last friday closing and the resistance will be at 565 to 545. MFI is firm and MacD in a nice trending mode.

KS Energy: No wave without wind. What an incredible run by KS energy.... a good candidate to be on my watchlist. I be waiting for a pull back.... CS reversal.... volume

Hi-P: The breakout resulted in a doji at resistance, in japanese candlestick terms, we call this the star in the north. Uncertain bulls... Coupled with a higher than average volume, very likely to pull back into the range.

Ferro: A quick check saw that the falling window is now acting like a resistance. The strong volume on up days certainly caught my eye. I am keen to see ferro pull back because of weak holders cashing out.

Capitaland: Broke the bulls' stronghold of $5.55 . $5.10 is the lowest of the year. It is not fun for the bulls if this gives way as well. I remembered the last round i shorted Capitaland was $6.24 and i shared this trade with graduates from the course at the gathering. Too bad i was using a local house CFD which required roll-over. Nevermind, now i have foreign platform and can hold my shorts for longer periods!

Biosensor: Is it a case of coincidence or history will repeat itself? I will watch for the next day selling. If it is going down, the selling will comes with equally strong volume.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Big swings

I skipped one night of blogging because i went to a preview talk on a trading platform. I struggled. I stared down the corridor which leads to my rooms.... bedroom is on the left and study room is on the right... i think and re-think... finally the left side of the brain said sleep! keke Anyway, i found another reason for the laziness. The lack of exercise. I still remember i always take the chance whenever i went jogging to formulise trading ideas or creative ways to use XPertTrader. I think i did blog about this......my ang mo shi fu said that, inorder to be in tip top condition for trading, healthy lifestyle is a must as it keeps your mind agile. Hence another step i am taking would be to incoporate exercising. Soon i will influence my team mates to run around empress place as well as esplanade, maybe even padang. I just love the sunset in the evening in that area. I still remember standing at one fullerton with full view of marina bay back in 2005.... i pointed to Ritz Carlton hotel and declare to my ex-gf, that one day..... just one day... i want to share my trading experience with an audience in a ballroom...... and i want to grace the stage of many auditoriums.... she just smiled and said nothing...... no wonder she is no longer my gf. haha

The seminar on 4th Aug has closed. I guess most seized the chance to grab their seats because it is a ChartNexus event. This seminar will be special because the topics will be on trading ideas for the upcoming National Day. Old timers will know, this is one of the calendar date where market behaves in a predictable manner. Lobangs aplenty!

I took my profits for Cosco Corp shorts leaving Noble shorts. The reason being, my CFD 30 days is up and i had to choose between auto roll over or i just take the profit. I choose the latter. I shall wait for higher levels or another trending stock to short. Perhaps i should pay more attention to HSI. I have the knack to index direction. Somehow to me, candlestick analysis, trendlines and one oscillator works well for me when i trade index.

Curent market is on it's toes... be very careful. It doesn't take a genius to observed that when Dow plunges more than 2%, STI lets go a small fart. When Dow rallies more than 2%, STI lets go also a small fart. My shifu says, right now, just take a view on the market and take the position. Neither the bulls nor the bears are interested to push in our market. With the 2 days wild swing, i may have to re-look at my shorts.


Swiber: a stock that XPertTrader rule picks up to go down. With Swiber heading down in such spectacular fashion, i will be looking at a test to the last support at 1.98. A lateral view will be to look at swissco.


Oceanus: A stock to watch because i like the good base before the breakout. This is where i will deploy the breakout strategy if 430 is taken out. Any pull back, i would hesistate if 380 is broken. XPertTrader 4r1g signal triggered.



Hi-P: Despite high oil price, their earnings improved. Though i didn't follow up on the story, i think i better do it soon. I tend to ignore this stock because it's industry is being squeezed by the high oil price. Looks like time to re-look this little giant. From the chart, a short-term opportunuity looks to be knocking on the door. Indicators starting to look good. Volume build up looks nice.

GrowMoney Quickpicks:
SPC

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as an buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. You agree that i am not responsible for your trading.

Quiet market

Indeed, this blog has lead me to know many great people and talking here online, allows me to vent my frustration and get my act right. Penning down your thoughts is always a good way to be clear to yourself, what you want. I wanted to get back to my passionate self and i wrote about it. By writting, i had forced myself to think positive and the small steps to getting back the passion. Today i dragged myself to this laptop and type away! My very first small step! I remember back in those days, even after i went Mdm Wong (My generation will understand) back at 1am, i will still flip charts... while i may be enjoying my night out, my head was thinking abt trading ideas for the next day... haha those were the days....

First of all, thanks to 4 kind souls who replied to my last post. Anonymous, just like you say, set a big target that will benefit not only me, but many others. Today i did something spectacular. (How timely) I rejected a customer. There was this uncle who had visibility challenge and because he often attended our FREE workshops and felt obliged to subscribe to XPertTrader. I attended to him and learnt about it. There he is, over 60 years old, retired, lost alot of money in the market (GemsTV, Osim, Centillion), punting is his method. I advised him not to sign the form for XPertTrader for i know it will not be useful to him since he just felt obliged. Instead i offered him a 1 on 1 training on T.A. I didn't even want him to sign up for the usual CTA course as i clearly could see he won't be able to follow the pace. This reminds me of a story, there was a young boy aged 13, the teacher asked the class to write down what will make them feel happy, many wrote going on a holiday, scoring As, receive a dream present they always wanted. But the boy's answer was different. He wrote, "I feel happy when i help others and watch them smile and say thank you to me". As corny as it sound, that boy was me. I remember telling this story to my ex-girlfriend, no wonder she is now Mrs Decipher... keke

The market today is very quiet. Well nothing to be surprised about as plenty of US econ data will be out this week. Remember, the last round of US data, nothing bad, market rally briefly and still came back down. The bull strength was limited and worse, DJ broke year low. Hence unless the data comes in damn well above expectations, i am still bear. No doubt i haven't been blogging diligently, my eyes were still on the market. In our office, each of us have a LCD screen and live prices are flickering every seconds in case we miss any big movement. For those who are interested to know what i have on this screen, HSI, Nikkei & Simsci Futures. I don't understand why we need to see Dow futures as it only determines the opening of Dow which is not meaningful unless you trade ang mo market. Then of course i will have my local stocks live streaming. Then the most important window, a messenger window to my trading buddies who taught me alot.

FerroChina failed at 38.2%. A good short will be from 1.35 to 1.40 where the falling window is. Today i waited... but the rebound never get close to it. Hence i gave it a miss. Midas, the darling of yester year seems like joining the clan of forgotten stocks soon. You go see the chart, dying slowly but surely... Even if i were to bet on rebound, this stock will surely not be on my priority list.

Currently i am still holding on to my cosco and noble shorts. My plan to continue building a short portfolio is intact. I see the current market actions as waiting for a bad news to come along to really crash it big time. There are simply no confidence in the market at all. At our Stock selection seminar, we gather more than 150 participants in the room each time. I always took sometime to "listen" to the mood of the audience. The last seminar was pretty muted. It's a you look at me, i look at you kind of market for now. Still as mixed, but i doubt the confidence level of the market.

I just want to remind everyone, in a bear market, rally ends early and selling is slow death... bear markets are also very tricky. Take good care!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Neither hungry nor foolish

As often as i used to write, trading is not only about technical analysis. Inorder to generate wealth, you need to have money management, otherwise it will be win here lose there, nothing fantastic. The other more important factor is psychology. That was my edge in the market place. Everyone can learn technical analysis and money management easily but when it comes to managing psychology, everyone will know but not practise it. This is human nature and this is why stock market is the way it is. Someone has to lose the money and the next person picks it up. Ask anyone who has been to my seminar, i have no qualms about sharing the signals and when to buy and such with no holds bar kind of presentation. But when i talk about managing of psychology, often times the interest was not there. At times i was so frustrated. I knew it is what made me trade successfully and yet i couldn't convince them to pay attention to it.

Ever since i came back from my 2 months break late last year for marital bliss, i notice my fire has died. The hunger was no longer there, and the passion if any left, was spent on coaching my peers. The story began about 4 years ago, one night, i decided enough is enough and masterminded my comeback plan in trading. Everynight i would study the market in earnest no matter how busy or how late it was. People came to know about me and my blog and visitors started pouring in. I knew i had a large following and i am honoured that i could help many people who like me, lost and wants to make back all the money and thus i made it a point to share information here on this blog. I had 3 short-term goals then. I needed money for my wedding and my love nest. I want to get out of my IT job and work in a investment related profession. And i want to make back the money lost! With these 3 burning missions on my mind, everything else became secondary. Focus + desire is what drives me back in those days. Two targets were reached by 2006, i made back the money lost all these years and now has sufficient money for my wedding and love nest. By 2007 July, i quited my job and joined ChartNexus. Dec'07, i came back from my honeymoon and began my new life.

Yes, new life... alot of things about me changed. I couldn't got back my passion for trading, my desire and focus was no longer there. Charting became a chore to me and teaching T.A bores me. What is happening to me! I slipped into a depression that i told no one about. I began to wake up in the wee hours and unable to fall asleep. Work suffers as my creative juice dries up, i stopped exercising and couldn't find interest in anything not even trading. Day and night just passed. After a month, i managed to find out the reason...... i was so focussed on my 3 goals all these years that, after i achieved them, suddenly i had nothing to look forward to.

Listening to Steve job's speech about staying foolish and hungry, i realise i had indeed slipped into a complacent mood. After achieving the 3 goals, i should be setting my sights on greater things to come. But instead, i felt lost and didn't know what's next. Some would ask, "wouldn't you want to make millions?" Of course i want! But i know it is not by saying, it will happen. I need to be thinking abt the little steps to getting there and making sure each step is executed to perfection. Thinking abt the million is what i call focussing on the wrong stuff. Yes it is a goal, it is a motivation. But the focus should be on the small steps. My 3 goals were achieved because i shut my ears and mind to pessimism and focus on the small steps. Incase you wonder what those small steps were? It is the daily charting and blogging. I scrutinise each trade and learn more things when i win or lose and then record down on this website so that i remember. Even when i put on a trade, i do not fret abt the profits or losses each day. My focus is whether the market is going to where my money is. Especially in trading, if you keep thinking about how much u gonna make in this trade or lose in a certain position, your emotions will be affected and that is how silly trades are done.

Goals and desire are such powerful mind games, we ought to make better use.

This shall be my key reversal day. I can feel that i am ready to set new goals and achieved them. I want to be the old decipher, ever so passion abt trading. If destiny wants me to fall, then so be it. I rather fail spectacularly than lead a mediocre life. huat arh!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

JSX: Aneka Tambang (ANTM)

The bluelines are support lines where it is better to fish there. Target of the D-triangle is shown. However, because it is bigger than 2 months, it is a very loose pattern and there is a possibility that we will not see the target. 1810 is another significant level to watch. Should there be any rebound, it will be kept at the red line. The gap down will be the first resistance as we look forward to a test of this falling window. On the weekly chart, a doji has formed signifying the bears are taking a break... watch for a white candle with strong volume by next friday as a hint of reversal maybe.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

The rebound everyone is waiting for

Over the last few weeks, it has been really a test of patience as i watched how the market ding dong without any significant upside or downside. I had a choice to trade intra-day, but alas i decided that i will stick to my plans of building a short portfolio. The lacklustre behaviour of the market send boredom to my life. All these years i have been very active in the market and enjoying every moment. Last few weeks has been extremely bored. Even as of today, i wouldn't say it is a good time to load up. I couldn't see any evidence of good bullish or bearish tinge. Recent actions has been, long also die, short also die. While there are small swings to profit from, but i been there before. The year was 2004... then we were trading 3 steps down, 2 steps up. What happen to me was, i made profits from the small swings... pocketing 2 to 4 cents one way. However, it drained my account. How did that happen? Because everytime i lose, i got hit 3 to 5 cts in addition of the brokerage. This is surely a lose lose game. Also, trading this way tend to miss the multi-baggers.

Actions hots up last Friday when we went down ferociously but support still holds. Now this is what caught my attention. Next thing i am watching out for will be how the market trades at the resistance. Currently my opinion is market may be forming a lower high. I just have to sit out the rebound and then add to my shorts. Yes i am still holding to my shorts just as i mentioned, i am interested in a short portfolio.

Now if market is to be bullish, i would see myself cutting loss on my shorts as they would have broken the lower highs and forming a support. That is where i will try to long.



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

A quick look at STI

It is notable that despite Dow Jones Index recording a new low for 2008, STI is still trading above the 7 month low. The gap from 2832 to 2878 may act as a technical support for the near term and we observed that the RSI is showing a bullish divergence. There may be overhead resistance from the 20-day moving average.



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Asia catching up with Dow

After 3 weeks of inactivity, finally the market hots up. Stocks started the brief rebound last week and today it all came into an abrupt end. I am only too glad that the market tanked today otherwise it is really very difficult to understand it. At least now i know the simple rules of the market still works and i am able to get the direction right. Despite all these talk about de-couple from US bla bla bla, today Asia market decided to finally cave in and joined the US in the south pole. As i am writting this, Dow has broken the 11k psychological support. Next major support will be at 10,700 thereabouts. Asia has a long way to catch up since the Mar'08 low is still intact. HSI support is targetted at 20,800 and STI? 2743 should go first.

How do we explain the selling in S-shares? simple, all you need to do is understand why does it go up in such high volume? One of my traing principle, if the stock has higher than usual volume and the price doesn't go higher, it has to come down. period.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Asia De-coupled with US

While dow broke to new low for 2008, HSI, Nikkei & STI are still staying above the Mar'08 low. What is happening here? Nan dao, we are really de-coupled with Dow? The super-power is no longer Dow but China? Perhaps history is in the making for all of us to witness how China takes over as super power.

Friday's strong closing came after days where market teased to the downside. I was definitely looking at a break to the downside, however market holds steady. The fact that it can holds steady despite Dow keeps going lower is a cause of concern for my shorts. I just checked the Dow's chart, still as ugly only thing is again it is in the state of oversold a rebound is likely. Even on STI, i wouldn't immediately call it the reversal. There are methods to identify reversal and the born of an uptrend and i will rather wait for these tell tale signs.

The rebound on Friday brought many China stocks near their resistance. I will be waiting to see, what to see? If any of those China shares that went up with high volume start to show weakness. Because if you were to look at most of their charts, it is easy to see those strong volume rally fizzles out and give us a lower low.


It is interesting to note that STI, Nikkei & HSI have not broken the Mar'08 low while Dow Jones has broken that low and now threatening to break lower. The ADX shows that the current downtrend in STI is losing strength as we can see the ADX line lacklustrely turning down along with -DI. Further observation of trend weakness can be seen from the positive divergence developed in the MacD Histogram. The probability of a rebound is strong and we can expect resistance from the price gap at 3084 level.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Grossly oversold

Delightful is the word i would use to describe how i feel when the market came down whole week long. Recalling how i was wrong about market moving higher in May, i made a decision to square off all my long positions to re-analyse the direction. Then i believed the market is heading down and from the way i read the market, i had a feeling 3000 and 12000 will not hold. Simply put it, if these levels hold, i would square off my shorts or should they break, i can look to short. My plan is to develop an opinion and trade in that direction while looking out for evidence that my opinion is wrong. This method is much better than "I see market up, i long, i see market red, i short" a sure way to lose money consistently. One of the question frequently asked was, when can i short? My answer is very simple, two levels we must know. Support and Resistance. Resisted at resistance or break support and we look to short. This is the only way you have the highest probability in your favour. Anything in between is best to avoid and wait patiently for the best risk/reward trade to come along. So to answer the question, yes, watch out for those support levels and pay attention to any positive news.

Technically, a rebound may happen. Watch out for sideway consolidations which may lead to another fall. The best is of course if we can have a decent rebound. This should be an excellent chance to go short. The pattern last week was obvious, "sell on strength".

Another sign that i have not witnessed during the bull run was how the crowd favourites were being sold mercilessly. Hongxin, Cosco, YZJ, Synear, Jiutian one by one these giants falling in grace.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Dow broke March's low

Dow has broke the psychological support level which is the low achieved in March. The ADX is screaming at a strong downtrend. However with such an extreme movement on this indicator, we may see light at the end of the tunnel. This may be just a slight rebound. Especially with RSI in oversold. I will be watching for major support levels in most stocks. Once they crack, "mai tu liao".



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Banking stocks & Straits Asia

After performing my usual 4 steps screening with XPertTrader, banking stocks and Straits Asia appeared to look interesting technically. For banking stocks, they will have a short term rally should Ben unexpectedly raise the interest rate. From the charts, DBS and OCBC looks like reversing. For Straits Asia, I see a possible chance to do counter-trend trading here. With it's well known volatility, this short-term opportunity should be worth taking a look.

Golden Agri together with the rest of the agriculture stocks got hammered today. This furthers reinforced my belief that i should not be riding on trends as there is non to speak of in this current market. It is better to take profit at resistance level or support level if short. Just checked the news and saw that oil slips $4 on increase in inventory. Tsk tsk... news must have leaked out during Asia trading hours, otherwise why did these stocks lao sai in anticipations of the news? Price moves ahead of news my friends....

STI together with Dow is now trading very very close to 2008's low. Should we break that low, I suspect the bulls will throw in the white towel and bears will be in charge for quite some time. With earning season coming up, look out for nasty surprise.

If you are feeling confuse over the current market, there is only one way to stay focussed and composed. Let me share a few tricks:

a) Take smaller position than usual to minimise risk.
b) Form an opinion on the stock market and trade your opinion. (XP subscribers, we will be sharing on market directions at this coming Momentum session)
c) Be patient for the next trade instead of rushing into one.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Awaiting Big Ben

Today's actions surprised me. Again the market looks resilient. This was observed last week as well as many stocks hold steady after the plunge in May'08. Look around, and you will notice alot of stocks are still not trading below the March's low. I too am tempted to go long to take advantage of this rebound. However i choose to do otherwise. With my trendlines and indicators in place, i realise this may not be the best time to go long as yet. No doubt we are near support levels, but experience tells me, there is a time to fish near support, there is also a time even support can breaks easily. The trading principle behind this is, in a bull market, support levels will hold and resistance levels will crack. The opposite is true for the bear market. I paused.... closed my eyes as i sit comfortably with soft music playing in the background in my war room... what do we observe in the market? Resistance are holding and support level has cracked. Some stocks got resisted at 200-day MA as well. With this evidence being so obvious, it's no wonder i feel uncomfortable going long. Commodities is the only sector that is rightly going against the bear tide. Due to it's volatility, i opted to give it a miss despite seeing the sector moved. 80% of the stocks are in trouble and i reckoned my odds are better if i can identify the sector in trouble and go short on it. Currently there are not many trending stocks in the market. Infact, any trendtrading strategy would probably not work in the current market condition. Short-term trading and chart formations and basic support and resistance will work very well in the current market. One of the reasons for not going long on commodity stocks is due to the volatile oil. Hearsay Saudi and the rest of the world are trying to bring down the oil price. Hence i won't be surprise if they are in favour today and then fall flat next day.

STI currently swee swee nice nice sitting on the trendline support with today's closing. MFI is also pretty close to a rebound. For tonight, i will be using my volume rule to screen the market to pick up any stocks with unusual volume. The reason i like this XPertTrader rule is because this simple scan allows me to understand what is going on in the stock market. From the results, i will be able to sniff out any unnoticed opportunities.

Anyway, currently i am still trying to decipher what the market anticipates of Ben's actions. Cutting rate is out of the question. The answer i would like to know is how market will react to a rate increase or hold steady the rate. Dow,

Let us also not forget this is the last week of June and we may expect to see window dressing in some index stocks.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

The bears came knocking again

STI hangs precautiously near 2 support namely the trendline and the gap support. With Dow overnight strong closing to the south pole. Monday morning should see pressure. A quick glimpse of the world indices revealed nothing but weakness. Perhaps they are anticipanting Ben to talk about inflation and worse still, to raise rate? I saw a report on Sunday times reporting funds pulling out of this region. A replica of what i saw in 2001. I have been waiting for Dow to give me a tua lao sai to the south, but it never came and i had to cover my capland on the rebound. Now it's gone to where i had anticipated, but i have got no short position. Haiz... got to find a stock from XPertTrader to short this coming week.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Third time lucky?

XPertTrader picks up Golden Agri as it tested 200-day MA as a support. Couple this up with the strong rally by IndoAgri (broke downtrend resistance line) and Wilmar, attractive isn't it?

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.