Bulls take charge!

After so many days of mixed market, bulls lead the way convincingly with 307 winners against 192 losers with a heavy volume of 1213.1M shares! The 2500 mark is now a reality more than a dream! Nationaly Day is coming. This could be the best gift to the nation for her birthday! hahaha So far my T.A is working well again. All the support line stood. Is this luck mistaken for brilliance in a bullish market? Or have I matured? Time will tell. I'm just glad that i managed to realise my trading system has been too defensive in a bullish market. Remember, you must have an arsenal of trading system for different market condition.

I shall share more of the trading plan definition tomorrow as it is simply too late in the night now for me to write properly! ha! Ok cut the crap! haha Let's check out the charts I have prepared painstakingly. Please check out the advertisements if you enjoy my charts hor. Thanks!

Rotary

Mai ka lim pei retrace hor!*hokkien* :D

(You better dun retrance tomorrow)

Sarin

People's Food

Noble

MMI

Labroy Marine

Jaya Holdings

ASL Marine

Stats Chip

Market roared alive! Focus on Rotary

Our market continued to edge higher. Such is the buying interest. It sets up a perfect stage for tomorrow's Mapple Reits IPO! It's a much talk about Reits and I'm so tempted to punt abit. However, a quick trip back to memory reminded me of a very true quote. "If you want to punt, go to a casino, where the returns are higher and faster. What for punt in the stock market with a lesser odds of winning and poor ROI for a quickie(quickie means quick trade)." Nope, I shall not punt tomorrow!

What is a trading system? I have talked so much about it but what exactly isit? If you think it means indicators or trendlines, WRONG! These are tools you use based on your trading system. So what exactly is a trading system? They are rules. Rules that are tailored for the trader you are, tailored to suit your personality. Personality as in your risk appetite, your money management rules, when would you buy and when would you sell. I have my own set of rules that formed my trading system. I will share it over the weekend for your reference. These rules are my lessons learnt over the year. So what is a trading plan? Tell you more tomorrow. hahaha!

Now for stock picking time! : )

All the breakout yesterday did not rocket off. All suffered retracements. What could be wrong? Fundamentally something underlying could be changing. Trade with care. Know ur stop loss and you will be fine.

Noble

Rotary! New found! Delicious! Don't forget the fact that this is a oil, energy and gas play!

UTAC

MMI Holdings

Labroy Marine

BeautyChina

ASL Marine

East Meets West & The Satay Stick Analysis

As i stumble onto my desk to prepare for homework, i can't help but feel stupid sticking to my trading system. It's not that it is not working. But i missed out too many opportunities while waiting for the Gem to pop out of the system. Suddenly, my eyes caught sight of a book.....The CandleStick Course by Steve Nison. Shit! Why didn't i think of that! I should employ another trading system that will allow me to trade short term. So while waiting for my Gem to be discovered, I can practise charting with Candlesticks combined with Stochastics. It worked damn well for me back in Nov'04. I remembered collecting $1.7k in that month alone trading! How the heck did I forget this trading system? In Trading, there is no 1 size fit all trading solution. Trading is an art, market is a dense forest. You need an arsenal of systems and indicators to survive!

In his book, Steve has said to combined eastern candlestick analysis with western indicators for a more complete analysis. As for me, I devised my own "Satay Stick Analysis". hahaha :D I used Candlesticks + Stochastics + MacD Histogram(weekly chart) to pin point buying signal for short term trading.

MMI Holdings

Labroy Marine
Beauty China
ASL Marine

I feel stupid looking at how my discarded Gems like CSE Global, Jaya, Raffles Edu bounced back today. I think I am being too narrow minded in trading. I neglected market sentiment and tweaked my GEM discovering trading system too much. From now on I shan't change something that is working.

Market was boosted by the June Industry output. It beats analysts forecast of 3.1% by registering a fastest rate of 11.1%. Drugs leads the way. It was also mentioned that 2Q GDP could be lifted because of this. This time ho say liao....with property boom going to happen at the same time.....what can I say? Let's Rock'N Roll STI & Sesdaq!!!!!

UTAC

Please pay attention to UTAC. It seems like tech has really bottomed out....So many tech companies gives better results. A sign of orders picking up. Tech stocks can be volatile. So be nimble! As for me, i'm waiting for a clear signal from T.A to enter! :D The results were good but surprisingly there was no buy on rumours and then sell on news. Worth a punt tomorrow!

Muted market

Market closed mixed today. Bears lead Bulls marginally. Those china counters thought to be benefiting the Yuan revaluation gained. However from the sidelines, it seems like market looks confused, not convincing in moving up or down. Full Apex, a chart request yesterday, gained +0.015. According to T.A, this fella is in uptrend.



People's Food: It was mentioned in the forum alot today. T.A wise, a buy with tight stop loss. I would advise caution with this one as China had news of farmers dying with a mysterious virus after slaughtering pigs. If it is confirmed, then this fella might head south.







Jurong Tech: The recent heavy selldown has eroded away my profit in this counter. It sets me pondering. How should I avoid this? I refered to my trading book and remembered this "As soon as the price move away from daily average, the rule of thumb is to protect 50% of paper profit"..... Another lesson learnt. I'm lucky i can learn this from paper profit. If I had used cash. The lesson will be learnt with a price.






Raffles Education: Another trend reversed in Decipher Gems list. Dumped out of my list.











Rotary: Trading chance! Weekly trend seems to head up and this is inline with the gas and oil play reported after a rebound in oil price. Click the chart to see cut loss and buy.








SMT: A turn in the weekly trend was spotted. Trend reversed. Vested at 0.715, now cut at 0.740. A 0.025 profit.

From all my paper trading in a bid to test my trading system, I have received harsh comments that paper trading is useless as emotions are not involved. Emotions normally hinder our thinking process. I agree with that. However, it must be noted that paper trading gives you a chance to fine tune your trading system or method against good or bad market condition. It sort of get you ready to do cash trading. Why do we have fire drill evacuation? It is to allow you to know what to do when you hear the fire alarm. Now think about trading, when a sell or buy signal is generated, from all the practises via paper trading you will know what to do.
Things i learnt so far:
1) 50% profit protection
2) Buy only when the Weekly Histogram is below Zero line. In Decipher Gems, only ST-Eng is picked from below zero. The rest were medium risk decision where the histogram was above zero. Rational being, when it is under zero, it has more upside. If you have doubts, just look at the above charts posted, you will realised that right from the bottom of these reversals, the profit is much higher! Check out my blog daily. Whenever I find such GEMS, I will share with you! Although sometimes I do feel left out in rallies, but I tell myself not to be bothered as chasing rallies can result in very painful lessons.

Tomorrow Suntec Reits Results, watch out for it!

People, I had added a Fundamental link on the left. Look out for it. It contains my research on investing stocks based on Fundamental Reasons. Decipher not only knows T.A, I am learning F.A too. I think the our CPF needs to be invested in good fundamental stocks rather than just earning the miserable interest by CPF. hehe

STI at dizzying height; Sesdaq catching up!

What a week for STI closing at 2319.34, a 5 years high! Next target would be the all time high of 2500 barrier. Can it do it? It's jittery trading at this level because retracement is at the back of my head. I certainly has no wish to buy high and sell low. Questions I asked myself were, what caused the STI to storm? GDP for 2005 isn't going to be fantastic. High oil price threatens economy as what Greenspan had said. Recent rush of aderaline is due to bank and property stocks. They were sent flying by Govt's relaxing of property policies. Being a market rookie, i had no previous experience of withnessing the impact of such policy change. Although it will be positive, but I thought it's premature to think that property will rocket off just like STI. Singaporeans still have to think about the higher interest rates should they go for 90% loan. They still have to worry about job security. Income today doesn't equates to income in the coming years. Looking at the jump in car sales due to the availability of 10 yrs car loan and $0 downpayment, it seems that Singaporeans prefer to let the "live it up" mood gets the better of their financial judgement. I saw what were cars being towed away due to defaultments. My final guess is, yeah, we should see property flourish soon! Time to look at property stocks because the mass are believing. I better don't fight against it. As for sesdaq, it looks like our penny counters had reversed their fortunes! Good for small pockets like me. : )


Decipher Gems: suffer a setback when Jaya Holdings and CSE faced some serious sell down. However overall it's still a +0.30 gain. Jaya Holdings, Rotary and CSE will be taken out of the list as their weekly trend have turned down.




UniFiber:
I sold unifiber on Friday. It's a really stupid decision on my part because I did not follow my rules. I decided to cut loss after it dipped to 0.385 on intraday trading but it closed at 0.390. On the chart it's not a sell signal. The previous day closing was down 1 cent and it affected me a great deal. I have commited this mistake hell lot of times. If unifiber cheong this coming week, i'm going to bang balls!





Junma: Due to the revaluation of the Yuan, this china play could be the next to move up. It's supply rubber for car tires. If it can import materials to make tire cheaper, it's margin will improve. I'm not sure how true and am not very familiar with it's business. But it pays to pay attention to this. Chartwise it has been lying low for sometime now. Just keep it in the watch list and not a Decipher Gem due to it's lack of market interest. Just found out, Junma's business is in china only. Yuan evaluation can only be helpful if they import raw materials. So they can have a more comfortable margin potentially if they import their materials from overseas.



Full Apex as requested.











As for my comments on HGM,
What is the business risk of HGM? Demand of Steel and Steel prices. Falling steel price is thought to be due to supply over demand. Steel production will slow down to curb the current situation, thus causing the price to stablise. After that steel price will go up! Because the demand is still strong. Construction is happening everywhere. Marine sector is still flourishing. They need steel plates for ship repair. New Oil Rig orders fills the news every week. All these are build on steel and not plastic or rubber. So i conclude Demand for steel is still strong while price of steel will stay stable. HGM's earnings will continue to stay strong as long as demand of steel is there. Wait for me dudes, i'm going to study the last steel cycle and see the similarities and differences. After that, i will share again.
As for the share price, it lacks market interest. I suppose HGM is seen as a small stockist out there.
By the way, i'm IT analyst hor, not economy analyst! hehehe so any expert please comment. Thanks!

My comments for Suntec Reits:
I suppose Suntec Reits is poised to take full advantage for it's office rental business when office space starts to get expensive in Singapore. It was reported that office space in Singapore is still considered at it's low. So chances of upside is unlimited. With it's close proximity to the 2009 Casino and the MRT to be built right next to it, this fella should be worthwhile to collect. Recent share price volatility should not be of much concerned if you plan to hold it long term say 5 to 10 yrs. Let's not forget about the properties it acquired recently. Once office rental hots up, Suntec will be mentioned time and again.

I hope market gurus out there can comment and teach me a thing or two if i am wrong in my analysis. Thanks in advance!

Upcoming Events

Descendents of Dragon has unpegged

China's revaluation of the yuan hit the internet news late Thursday evening. How will it affect businesses in China? Let's draw an analogy.
If i am an importer when my currency is higher, i will import cheaper
If i am an exporter when my currency is higher, my customer will pay more thus i have to squeeze my margin to compete.
So, do know what China counters you are buying. Decide whether they export or import. Tomorrow will be an interesting show.

HGM surprised me and my fellow trader friends with it's white candle today. The volume is quite heavy at 4 million. Let's revisit the double bottom chart i posted last week.
http://growmoney.blogspot.com/2005/07/hgm-double-bottom-formed-or-am-i.html
From T.A point of view, some form of reversal is in the making, given the poor sentiment towards high steel prices, never thought it actually came true. I hope this reversal can test the all time high for the third time!

As for the general market, mixed day of trading yet again. Profit taking sets in for property counters after their amazing run up for the past 2 days.

Much to my dismay, Unifiber closed down at 0.390 today! Very very disappointed. I was anticipating to collect profits, never thought that i would need to study the cut loss level today. What to do, such is luck. Why didn't i buy Jurong Tech? Hi-pi or St-Eng? Of so many gems, i had to choose unifiber? Something that refuse to move? Give me a break! Confidence sometimes need a bit of luck to make one feel better!

3 gems looks set to be delisted from my Decipher Gems list. Check out the charts. No new gem spotted by my trading system today.

Why is a bullish market mixed?

STI rallied again yesterday with focus on banking and property stocks again. Market is still taking the news positively. Late afternoon profit taking was seen. However I observed that winners and losers are still quite mixed. Oil price has slipped under US$57 per barrel, US market continue to head north with Nasdaq at a 4 yr high. Regional markets are all running bullishly. My question is, why is our market not convincing? Anyone can advise me? I am feeling really uncomfortable seeing 50-50 situation in the losers and gainers stats. A bullish market to me was thought to be gainers leading losers at least at a ratio of 2:1.

With STI reaching 3 yr high, overbought sentiment sets in. Retracement ought to come in sooner or later. Those buyers who chased high price last week are suffering now. From what I see, only property and blue chips are moving. Penny stocks are quite quiet. Lesson revisited! Never chase high price.

Decipher Gems suffered with Rotary and Jaya holdings falling the most. This sets up a question in me about profit taking. Although the counters weekly trend is still up, do i wait till most of my profits turn into air and exit only at the turn of the weekly trend? Maybe I should protect 50% of paper profit? Which means to say, when a counter retrace back 50% of my paper profits, i sell and keep my money. Worth a thought.

Unifiber still elusive...it's been 6 trading sessions of consolidating. I thought yesterday's heavy buy up was a sign to come. However, it never did. Patience...it's so demanding emotionally. I think cases like unifiber can replace fishing as an activity man, you keep waiting for it to break upwards just like you are to wait for a fish to get caught in your hook! hahaha! Patience.

No new Gem was found in my system yesterday.

Property Boom!

After being depressed for so long, govt has changed some policy to make it easier to buy a property with less cash. Although it will mean paying less cash for owning a flat or property, it also means longer and more expensive bank loans. I see it as the same for COE. When COE is cheap, 10 yrs loan was permitable, whole lot of Singaporean took it up, 10 yrs loan knowing they pay higher interest. So I guess property market will boom! Singaporeans plus foreigners will storm our market! So will it cause ripple effect to the rest of the counters? Perhaps, construction sector? Or even best, HGM who can supply metal to build property. hehehe

Just like terrorist attacks which can drag the stock market down. This kind of good news is also beyond T.A or F.A. But I wonder for the person who typed the statement for our minister to read out, did he or she secretly buy? :P

The market was pretty mixed although the STI rallys to new high again. Winners beat gainers only just. And the STI high is mainly contributed by property stocks. Profit taking was in place in other counters that had made some gains in recent sessions. I suspect the bulls are resting...bears were powerless amidst good news from corporate earnings and market. Many had forgotten about high oil price. I bet that for the next down move, analyst will attribute it to profit taking and high oil price. They look for excuses for the movement after it happened. But it's their job, to analyse why the market moved. hehe That's why they are called analyst and not prophets.

Decipher Gems took part in the rally yesterday and most of them continue their upwards move. I'm still stuck in Unifiber. It refused to move upwards. The weekly trend is still up, and yesterday's drop has caused the daily chart indicator to fall below zero line. It's a sign to up my stakes as it points to a move towards north. Let's see if it can happen. Cheong arh!!!!

Today's spotlight no doubt will be in property. Will there be more upside? Even Casino announcement didn't have so much impact than the news yesterday.

Bulls losing steam

Another mixed day of trading today with losers slightly ahead of the gainers. Are the bulls losing steam? Ready to turn down? Or are they simply resting?

Vol 720.6 M Val 760.0 M
Rise 206 Fall 230

June's non oil export fall short of analyst's estimates and affected trading sentiment. Many of the counters that had moved up sharply had taken a U-turn. This is the reason why I shouldn't chase after high price. Retracements are bound to happen as it's human to take profit when it soar high enough. Question is, will there be continuing buying? Oil, Gas and energy plays are reported to have more upside.

Decipher Gems, the more i see unifiber, the more impatient i got. It's been consolidating for a long time now. On the charts, an Ascending Triangle could form. This will result in an upside breakout of price. As for CSE, it has touched my cut loss at 0.790. But it's thin volume today caused no alarm. Only if it goes below my cut loss then I will consider it as turned sour. It's weekly trend is still upwards. I'm waiting for Jurong Tech and ST-Eng to retrace further, their weekly uptrend are intact, however i need to see more retracement before the risk/reward gets good enough for a punt at the babies (warrents)! The rest of the gems are still having weekly uptrend.

No new gem found in my trading system today. This could be testiment that my system would not be conned by a fake bull! :D

A watch out for tomorrow:
Minister of National Development Mah Bow Tan will announce policy changes affecting the property market at 3.00 p.m. Singapore time (0700 GMT) Tuesday.

Worries unfounded?

Analysts had warned of global economy slowdown in 2005. Being an amateur in the financial market and not to mention my trading losses, I grew scared about puting my money in the market. I thought bear market coming. STI flying high and following a report that this year will be range bound at 2100 to 2200 begining of the year, I tried to trade cautiously passing up lots of opportunities. Look what had happened this months? Strong sets of Economic data keep flowing into the market pushing the index higher. I learnt to take analysts' words with a pinch of salt. We must do our own analysis. Have you seen "kelong" reports? Where prices move up alot before the positive report is released into the market? I leave it to you to figure this one out less that I get sued. keke

Vol 979.8M ; Val 887.0M
Rise 202 ; Fall 272

Our market closed mixed on Friday amidst profit taking. It is the second day in a row where gainers and losers are trading closely. Looking back, the market has moved up alot to where it is today and infact has touched a new high in 3 yrs last week with heavy volume. Don't be surprised by any retracement. Oil price hit highs again. But our market continues to ignore it. The target of US$80 per barrel has factored in the price? My mistake was to predict what will happen, now i simply follow the trend.

Flashback! Allow me to "hao lian" (proud) abit.....I said to stay clear people's food in my old post...look! it came true! keke
http://photos1.blogger.com/img/288/6339/640/ppfood1.jpg

Decipher Gems! Tiong Woon has been removed from my list because of illiquidity. Unifiber continues to be a mystery to me. Last few sessions suggesting consolidation in progress. This is my only cash trade among my Gems...doing well in this trade will certainly boost my confidence. Anonymous has correctly said that one of the reasons my Gems is performing well due to current bullish market sentiment. I agree. Hence I spent sometime scrolling back to June where I first blog seriously. I had no gems back then althought market is moving already. I even started a chart request on the left to kill boredom. I think my trading system filter counters that are in uptrends only. If you click on my picture, you will be able to read about my trading system. So if it's a bearish market, i'm sure my trading system will not pick up any "lobangs" (opportunities). However we can always open a SBL account and go short instead! hehe

I'm trying to get a site search to work on my blog so that we can search for old postings on counter's charts that has been posted. You can scroll all the way down to try.

Golden Peanut - What Singaporeans are talking about!

Decipher Gems: Seeing is Believing!  

CPF Investment Choice

From my small polling done at SI forum, here's the list of most prefered stock for CPF invesment!

SPH
ST-Eng
NOL
SGX
SIA
Singpost
SPC

Not in order of preference! :lol:

Bulls Beat Bears But Only Just!

It was a close finish today as the bulls narrowly beat the bears.

Vol 1036.8 M; Val 993.9 M
Rise 255; Fall 227

The volume is still heavy and the STI close up mainly because of the surge in Creative. Apple had released a strong set of results for Q3 and it's due mainly to strong sales in Ipod. I am really excited to see how Creative shares will perform tomorrow. On the international scene, oil price continues to slide and our trade partner USA's major indices are roaring accross the ocean. The rally ain't done yet...it's not done yet! :D

And once again my gems performed! This time it's is amid a rather mixed market. Hence I'm growing confident that my trading system is working well for me. However my first cash trade on Unifiber has yet to show result. I'm getting emotional here. The fear of it sliding southwards on the chart scares me. I have lost far too many times. So any trade that doesn't works well is scary to me. But as the saying goes, have a plan, trade a plan. I just have to trust my system. Many people has asked me to guess the direction of stocks. "Will it goes up or down?" I think from all my research in the past, the best answer I can offer is, "know how much you are going to lose in this trade". We can't guess 100% where is the price heading. But we can control how much we will lose. Money to trader is oxygen to divers, i will always remember that.

A fellow forummer brought up a very good reminder that National Day is coming. It's almost a tradition to have a rally before the National Day. We termed it the National Day Rally. I refered to my old blog (You can find it under links on the left) and found out that there was really a rally amidst high oil price! Just like now! Then, I was cautious and stayed out of the market. Now I should know better.

I had invited lots of traders from other forum here today. Welcome guys! I hope you enjoyed my article and hopefuly my Gems. :P Do share your experience or comments. Let's grow money together!

ST-Eng warrents!!! I'm running a second test to see if my system can be applied to warrants. Tomorrow all these should be positive numbers! Let's see :D

My Gems! On a mixed day, wouldn't you be as happy as me to see your portfolio is on the positive side? Am I good? Or am I just lucky? I really wonder too. Just last month, I was so depressed about my losses. Recent weeks my new trading system works damn well. Back to the gems. ST-Eng and Jur Tech are having down days. Both had their weekly chart still having buy signal. For ST-Eng, it is actually a chance to buy more. As for JurTech, I choose to stand aside, as the daily chart has somemore downside as it's stochastics is in overbuy. 

Market Tua Cheong ah!

When market wants to rally, join them! I call this riding on the bull run. Being the most hum ji trader of all time, I had gotten vested to play a part in this bullish mad run. This speaks volume of my faith in this run. I'm sure it will come to an end soon but surely not now! Why? Check out it out!

Vol 1115.6 M, Val 1071.3 M
Rise 365, Fall 147

Winners thrashed losers today yet again. A continuation of yesterday's trouncing. Check out the volume and value!!! No joking matter man. So I guess the bradley turn date is for the better than the worst. Again my gems posted gains or stood level. I'm not overly satisfied as the ratio for winners is 3:1. So unless you are running on bad luck, it's difficult to lose today. Many had warned about the high oil price, but I still don't see our market reacting to it ever since last week. Special mention about tech stocks is a must today. It seems like sentiment about the reversal in tech stock is very strong these days. The tech stocks has been running for weeks. I'm waiting for the next down to get vested. Retracement is a must to keep an uptrend healthy. So beware of catching stocks at their highest point.

On a day like this, I'm pleasantly surprised that my HGM actually went up to 0.480 before closing at 0.475. The world's steel price has fallen so it had no doubt affected the margin of HGM. However it must be noted, marine books are full and HGM's business mainly supply marine ship metal. Also, due to the over supply to demand situation in steel industry, output has been curb. Soon, we shall see steel price firming. This is just my hindsight and should not be taken as a reason to get vested in HGM.

The whole nation is talking about the NKF saga today. But i'm more concern that SPH has dropped 10 cents today. However i'm not too concern. From a technical point of view, the weekly trend is still up. What i see is a chance to add on my holdings if the weekly uptrend continues on a down day.

Two counters Jaya Holdings and Rotary was alerted from my system. I have posted the charts. This makes my gem list exploded to 8! What a good number. Auspicious! :D

Suntec Reits, really getting disappointed in this fella. It has close under resistance. I wonder if this is man made or is the sentiment really bad. One must note that Mr Lee KS has sold some of his holdings in Suntec Reits. Maybe it's time i consider to let go mine as it seems to be weak at the moment from a T.A point of view.

Unifiber, still yet to make it's move. Another heavy volume day today with big lots buy up. Soon...soon it will cheong...I must have the patience and trust my system. Sesdaq is having a fine run. Unifiber should join it soon.

Jurong Tech Warrants: Looks like my system can be applied to warrants as well as this is the third mad rush! Damn! My money not in it!  

Decipher's Top Picks! Look! Another Astonishing performance by Decipher Labs trading system.