让熊欢喜，让牛忧

七月九号，晴

就知道昨天是一个警告。收市前，银行股的牛气使我非常失望。本以为这次能够一次赢的够，结果空欢喜一场。也许是宿命注定要我一步一步来。有时候我也很羡慕一些闭着眼也能赢钱的朋友。偏偏我就得费尽心思。也罢，我想最好是安分守己，稳扎稳打。

昨天我做了一些调整，把风险降到最低。内心虽起了贪恋，但见过鬼的我早已怕黑。所以我宁愿赢少也不冒不必要的险。诺要做英雄，在股市里一定死的最快。我在等待的回弹以发生。所以我已在阻力线买空了一只股。没办法，图表上有很好的风险与盈利的比例。就连海峡也碰到了阻力。要是股市真的要大泄，就在这个价位是最好的。

当然，如果股市猛力回弹，我也不会做个笨小孩。我把注意力集中在20与50天的移动平均线。多数的股以在50天的移动平均线上下交易。如果我们能守在50天线上，并且突破20天线，这会消除了熊意。相反的，如果20天成为新主力，这可能是一个买空的好机会。

现在手上用有两只本地股和一只美市指数。全部都是买空。

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Did you see what i see?

I saw: black white black white black white black white in the box... Dow is doing a roulette with us? :D

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Managing my risk in this falling market

Properties actually looked quite firm yesterday as they did not crash through the key support levels. But the news abt tax on capital gains spooked the market. Ok, i am not short on properties and thus didn't benefit. But the cake sim part is when u see the rest of the market falls like a rock and ur stock goes up! DBS! I had great plan on how to make big bucks trading DBS. Waiting to hoot at the breakout and then cover back only to short again at the re-test. I covered DBS near closing because i didn't like the high volume and the resiliency it shows in a falling market. This is confirmed with the other two banks which also closed higher off the support. Now i have to devise another plan to benefit from this falling market. Which i did so in the afternoon.

I went short S&P futures with an opinion that the head & shoulder patterns i saw all over the place is going to drag the global markets lower. I see more downside than up even if there is a rebound, i suspect the rebound will be weak. Look at STI, held up by invisible hands... despite Nikkei and HSI fell badly. This pretence cannot sustain surely. Hence my bet is on US markets to lead the downfall. I won't know exactly when, but i know i am wrong if those heads and shoulders are violated. I will also be keen to watch for weak rebound to initiative more shorts.

Currently i am still short on one local stock and S&P futures. I asked myself, do i want to hoot tua tua at this time? What are my probabilities? I have to admit, it will be silly of me to hoot right here. This is not the time to be agressive. I prefer to wait patiently at the next rebound. That is where the risk/reward is the highest! What i done today is to keep my good profits in DBS and then use this profit to risk a S&P short. If i am right, then i make more money. If i am wrong, at most i lose back some profits. I am increasing my profit potential here with low risk. On the other hand, if i hang on to my DBS shorts, and then still short S&P, then when i am wrong, my profits may potentially be wipe out by the new short in S&P. The reward, certainly more profits if i am right. The above two scenarios are my considerations this afternoon and i choose to make more profits with smaller risk.

Remember, it is a sin to lose all ur profits back to the market.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

非常时期；兴奋无比

先给大家一个图表，今晚必送上分析。发啊！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

当熊仔来临时

各位乡亲夫老门，大家一定觉得惊讶，是不是来错了地方？放心，这还是小弟我，帝赛福。最近不知为何有点神精嘻嘻的，心有点七上八下。。非常不安。 除了在此地，恐怕没有属于我的世界。读到这里，您应该以察觉到我的华文并不强，所以如有错字，敬请包涵。因为，今晚我心血来潮，将使用我的母语记载我对股市的看法。大家来尝试新的体验！

今早的稍微回单其实是一个很好卖空的几回。如果说挨了两天的熊仔消魂掌才来信灾乐祸，这是马后炮。在上周，我就已技术分析法买空了一只指数股。当时我的唯一考量是风险对盈利比例非常的好，可说是难得一见的大好机会。有没有包赢？等久就有。不然我早就破釜沉舟全压了！ 股票不是这样玩地。这是一个马拉松，钱就是我们的氧气。不能一次用完。要是破产，便会害人害己。

在股市里，我发现了许多反转图形。这是非常熊的。如果只有一两只股也巴。 但如果是在大多数的图表里看到同样的现象，这是一个警告。所谓欲先善其事，必先利其器。如过大家引用差别合约，我们就可卖空。把本来忧郁的熊市变成一个开心的时刻。

就如上一个记录，我任然很注意那些支撑价位。如果说这只是一个段斩的调整，那些支撑将会非常坚固。相反的，如果被突破，我便会在下个测试回单继续卖空。要不然在这个价位卖空的风险相当高。这就是我的计划。如今我在股市里有两个卖空的位置。最好是海峡指数能破2240 点，迈向2180点！


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

50 DMA is the key level

After my studies, i realised 50-dma seems to be the key level for the market this week. There are stocks trading right at 50-dma, some infact broken and many others still slightly above it. God knows what will happen if those above catches up. Is the market setting up for big crash? Earnings will kick off soon and after a dismal job loss report, the market seems to be anticipating to sell off any sign of weakening quaterly reports. If the earnings come in better, it may be the perfect ingredient for a rally.

Dow's 8250 maybe the confidence the market needs... both S&P and it has a Head and shoulder lookalike which echoed some of the stocks in the SG market as well. Nan dao... this time i hoot tio seh? keke I am also looking at HSI at 17,300 and how Nikkei trades 9.5k.

N.Korea fires missiles to celebrate independence day with defiance. Back in 2005/06, market always react negatively to N.Korea's actions for fear of a war up in the North. Recent test fires has been largely ignored. I think it is because back in those years, economies are still growing, market is bullish and looking for a reason to pull back. Fast forward to current market, we are talking about green shoots, however econs data were often mixed and job losses continue to worsen. We are still not sure of recovery and market heads uncertainties. Hence many look forward to improved earnings as a sign.... that is key. From the charts, i can see that the market has pulled back to wait for more clues.

As of now, i feel it can still go either way. We need those key levels to be compromised first.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Market barely clinges on...more downside to come?

It wasn't comfortable yesterday. The market rebounded ferociously against my short position and while stop loss was not hit, sometimes you are tempted to just cover the position and stand aside. With only 1 short position, i can afford to take the risk and hang on to the position. This is not blind faith and certainly not based on hope analysis. This is risk management couple with T.A. What i saw in that rebound on Wednesday is the light volume. I just can't believe the rebound can sustain on a very obvious light volume. Resistance still holds while we rebounded with light volume. What happens there and why the light volume, this i won't know. Livermore couldn't have said it better, the why usually will be answered after the move has started.

It was satisfying to see market tanks in the afternoon. However it all points to nothing if we don't close lower by Friday. Because from where the technicals are showing, naturally it should falls lower. If we trade higher on Friday - TREACHEROUS! Currently Dow is 3 digits down...sort of confirmed we are going to go down tomorrow. Pls dun get me wrong, I am not saying this is the start of another bear market. I just thought the market is showing that it is going lower and i just trade accordingly. As a market participant, we are like a boxer, we must know when to long, when to short.

Below shows the only short position i have in this market. I need the head and shoulder formation to form...once formed, i will swing into full shorts. Otherwise i feel the current volume is still not a strong indication. Bear rebounds are quick and can be high....shaking shortists out of position. It will be nice if tomorrow we wake up to a -280 from Dow... c'mon Dow u can do it!




DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

June is over

The boring June is over! On this very last day of June... instead of finishing strongly, we were unable to close higher and infact mercilessly sold down near closing. This could mean funds already undressed? hahaha STI though was held up by invisible hand... this could be to squeeze index shortists over at the futures market. Broadbase market looks weak and were unable to clear resistance. I choose to square off my long and turn short right here. It has been bugging me for much of the day. All the resistance levels were screaming at me. As i see the falling market, charts after charts, they seems to be ready to plunge down. It is indeed ugly and i do not like the fact it doesn't trade higher today. Lower highs is very obvious and i thought i saw some head and shoulder patterns potentially forming... once those breakout, i think ripe for coming off.

Hum ji is tan bo jiak one. No care, i will just short one position and take it from there. Technically, it is a sell signal, the risk reward is mouth watering. If i don't short with technicals, there is probably no other reasons to short? At most i am wrong. In trading, we cannot afford to be afraid to lose. If we fall, we get up, dust ourselves and look for the next trade. 富贵险中求！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Show me the volume

A super quiet session... very light... that's why we see the price swings up and down easily. Nothing conclusive from this session.... the waiting game continues...

The next direction with volume should indicate where we are heading. As of now, long or short may make peanuts... but when the direction suddenly breaks out, i may lose more than those small wins. I rather be patient and wait for a clear chance. I was tempted to initiate a short position in "anticipation" of a weak market going forward. My friend reminded me that it doesn't pay to be hero at this stage. With such light volume, market can go either way and i will get whipsaw out.

Weather is so different tonight as compared to the last few days.. it is so cool. My senses tell me the temperature is perhaps at a comfortable 28 degrees tonight. If only Singapore is always this weather, how nice. Perhaps this is the type of market where traders can take some time off the market and relax. A sms disrupted my peaceful night as i am penning down my thoughts tonight. MinDef reminder to attend ICT in July... argh!!! Hopefully no need to stay in then can still trade! :D OTherwise got to smuggle my 3G phone to camp liao.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bye bye Michael Jackson

The world lost it's greatest pop star Michael Jackson... this legend really took the world by storm and through his popularity i saw what stardom is really about. Simply awesome. Growing up in the 80s... no way you will not hear about him. No matter how hard other stars try, he is still the only one whose music and name bring together different race, differnt country. His energy on stage is infectious. Though not a big fan, but i remember Tony Robins in his tapes mentioned Michael's success wasn't by chance.. he worked hard to achieve it. He knows what he wanted, he worked till he gets there. If only i can keep up with his kind of dedication, discipline and passion.... my dreams will come true too.

*snap* Get on with market!

Was last week's weak closing due to the usual Friday weakness? Or was it a warning to what may lie ahead. This is the pop-up that i had anticipated since last week. The weak closing spoil what otherwise i feel maybe a good chance to scale 2400. Furthermore the hammer on the weekly chart isn't on any significant support and hence i feel it may be just a pause in the selling. Hence i still opt to be prudent. There are times i feel extremely at ease at assessing the direction, currently it is definitely not the case. To make matters worse, my left eye keep twitching.. i wonder what bad news looms... It will be auspicious if we close next week a white candle. This would mean any intra week weakness may be a good chance to go long. It will be super duper good if Dow breaks the 200-dma... i'm sure alot of T.A practitioner is eyeing that. However, if we indeed start July in the wrong foot, then i am better off looking to short.

Commodities stocks looking hesistant... perhaps Alcoa result may give it the push it so sorely needed. I still have my long position in properties. Lets see what Monday brings.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Weekly versus Daily

On the weekly chart, it still points to more downside. However the daily chart looks like turning. This is a very good level for the market to turn upwards. A quick screen on the market reveals that the volume still ain't returning as yet. So long you didn't buy at the high, i'm sure despite the swings in the market, the current price should be still around your breakeven price. I am also seeing a good chance for the market to bounce from here. The next 3 sessions will be key. I would be particularly interested to see the market close higher in the next 3 sessions. Otherwise we may plunge further.


Sector Analysis: After rounds of selling... two sectors stood out from the rest, properties and commodities. As we see the index falls lower and retest 2210s to 2230s level, only properties and commodities showing similar actions as depicted. Both sectors retest lows while the rest lower lows. Hence these are the two sectors i would be more interested in.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Late sell-off

I thought my gut feel proved itself when market got off to a roaring start in the morning and early afternoon. Alas, market shows that it takes more than gut feel to make money off it. I read with interest my post last night on how i refused to trade on my gut feel... indeed it pays to follow the market instead of placing my bets on where it will trade. Livermore said, "Ask not where the market is going, but ask what you will do when the market gets there". Very wise words. It had helped me at times when i feel confused about the market just like now. Ming ming it looks like it's going higher, but why the nasty late sell off? What am i missing here? The volume again in today's sell off is light which means to me, less significant.

Fed's meeting may turn out to be a non event unless he really do the impossible: hike the rate. All other econs data may just be the excuse to move higher. Nan dao, market consolidates first and leave some room to cheong once data confirm the strength of the economy?

Really is bo li you....

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Next upward wave coming?

As planned, the mid-week rally saw me cutting down from 3 long positions to now 1 long position. Those two that are i cut were at a loss. I learnt to take small losses first instead of being stubbornly and painfully wrong. I mean it is clear to me that those buy signals didn't work and from my experience they may point to more downside. More downside doesn't mean the bull is dead, it simply means i may be too early. There is a SIGNIFICANT difference here i would like to share. The buy signals i used to trade was when the economy is doing well and is still booming... the recent buy signals were from a time when there is still much uncertainty about the economy. Simply said, the pull back can be pretty deep as compared to that of the bull market. Hence, i opt to reduce my risk exposure. If everything is fine, i can always add on to longs. As of now, if even this one position turns out to be a bad trade, the market may head lower.

My anticipation of the coming weeks is perhaps another push upwards and then form a lower high. This i have to watch the broadbase market for any evidence of hitting resistances and not moving any much higher.

The other reason why i am still keeping a long position, technically this pull back to me still looks like a normal and healthy retracement. But alas, i do not have the conviction to go full long. I still need to watch for more obvious signs before i add on to my positions. I may repeat, i would not maintain my risk level nor increase it just because i feel the market is in a healthy retracement. It sure is a fast way to lose a fortune by trading on "feel". After my daily screening... it sure looks like market is.....

....if i am right, then this coming week should see the resume of uptrend in anticipation of the next quaterly earnings in July. Not to forget we have the mid year fund dressing to look forward to. Index stocks are those that may benefit most.

On the index front, HSI looks pretty decent despite the horrific week. Based on the weekly candlestick analsyis, it seems like the hanging man got confirmed and HSI should head lower. However in T.A, if a bearish signal doesn't work out, the movement in the reverse direction can be very powerful.

Last but not least...... 赚钱的好机会来了！

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

It is indeed very ugly

The thing about working in KL is, either u go home at 4pm, otherwise you must stay until 8pm... anything in between, you get stuck in peak hour jam.... that's how it was for me over the last few days. The worse part is the internet at the apartment is super unstable... can't even post anything here. Add all these to the recent market correction, super recipe for a frustrating experience. wahaha

Truth be told, i have 3 long positions! Yeah this should be very juicy and hot to read about keke. When i went long last week, i knew the risk is significantly higher than previous 2 months. Especially when i do not see a follow through in buying after the wave of signals. The only thing that protects me from burning a big hole in my trading account is my stop loss levels with a 2% capital limited loss. Each time when i put up a position, the first thing i would consider is how much am i losing in this trade if i am wrong. As it is now, all 3 of my positions are still closing at the stop loss level i had pre-determined. Will i keep them? This will depend on how the market trades and what are the possible scenarios i have painted.

If this is one of those sharp pull backs in a bull market, then we still have some room to fall. To me, this is only the first stage of this correction. At the next rally, i will definitely reduce my positions from 3 to 1. To turn short, i will do so after i receive either a retest of support levels or the first batch of TT1-short signals.

As of now, another possible scenario is, today is a whipsaw and we will close higher and continue the uptrend. June being June is an usually quiet month where the market can swing either way since the volume is thin. The important clue is what will happen after June where another barrage of company results will come.

I am also patiently waiting to see the 3-stars aligned... that is a very rare signal!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

1 more try to scale Mt 2400

Nikkei led this superb rally today.. the usually weak Nikkei has the audacity to test 10,000 points. HSI and STI both are now closer to the previous high..18,900 and 2400 respectively. If we can close the week above these levels.. bullish! Even Dow is very close to 9k...

I favour two sectors - Properties and Commodities as they shown great volume behaviour over the last 2 days. Especially for today where the whole market moves up a gear in anticipation of a rally! Yeah... it's in the air... we can all smell it. Only Dow stands in the way between a nightmare and a sweet dream.

I have a whole long list of signals. Signalling that this may be the next wave upwards. This time really must maximise the opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls got slaughtered

This deep deep pull back caught everyone by surprise. I had high hopes of seeing Financials take the lead to clear 2400... it's all but vanished as the bears mercilessly sold down the market. Is this the start of another bear leg? I doubt so... technically we had moved too high too fast.. it's only natural to pull back for consolidation. Especially property sector.

Now it is time to watch how market trades at support... the next chance to long or short is very very near.... just a few more days and we will be staring at key support levels. My eyes will be on which sector to turn the corner first! Or which sector to lead the downfall?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Financials and Commodities to pull ahead?

2400 remains a stubborn resistance for STI. It looked as if we are going to turn ugly from here but the market remains resilient. From my sector analysis performance chart, it looked like Financials and Commodities may be leading the next charge at 2400.

Props and the rest remains weak for now. Offshore looks kinda of flat for now. We can understand why, a quick glimpse at the charts and you can see that they are not moving in unison for now. Everyone is surprised to see Cosco lagging.... Kepcorp has a customer bankrupted, SembMar mysteriously came down. Maybe a consolidation is good for this sector.



I was flipping my archives today and found this >>> http://growmoney.blogspot.com/2007/01/growmoney-growth-fund-swings-into.html .... the day i broke even. : ) Whenever i read this... it reminds me to be humble and stick my foot firmly on the ground. Especially the part on wedding... a wedding delayed... haha what was i thinking back then!

C, this is dedicated to you... i hope you know my drift...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

GrowMoney Sector Analysis

As you can see, while the rest of the sectors were pulling back, Financials are still strong. It was the last one to turn up. The last updated on my indices shows that many have pointed lower. The next thing of interest is which sector will be the first to turn up. I will update again on the sector of interest.

For now, my screening shows that we have a pretty decent day where the support still stands. This is something which i had wanted to see. The average volume for leading stocks are not high on this retracement day. I went long again on financial with a single position this time since in the afternoon we rebounded off the lows. I had actually wanted to be agressive with another position on HSI. However, surely when the index is near the stubborn 2.4k, it is not time to be agressive yet.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls got slayed in the final hours

The morning began with a quick peek at how Dow closes.. A mere 19 points up and Nikkei was flat.. i heaved a huge sigh of relief as i am wary of bearish confirmation today since there were many ugly candles yesterday. The day erupted into a rally throughout the day and financial and property led strongly. However, just like yesterday, the day ends like a fart. I view the afternoon selloff as a bearish sign with many stocks unable to break higher. HSI is the one that dragged us... a shooting star now lingers on the daily chart. I was away for a meeting.... otherwise i would have shorted HSI near closing... keke *Horse Back Canon" Another point that i considered was Dow had closed right on the 200DMA resistance last night. Usually, if it wants to clear resistance, it will just burst through.... Lastly, Nikkei after market, its futures retraced badly.. very ugly.. With the odds stacked against me... i think keep the profits better. I missed a bulk of the property rally... to be able to still latch on to banks and offshore, i think i shouldn't be tum sin. F puts it very well.... market will take the money back from you if you don't keep it properly. Furthermore, technically, profit targets already met.

I closed all my long positions today. Just do not feel comfortable with the afternoon sell off. Picture this, morning we float higher then we hit by heavy selling in the afternoon. It's a textbook warning. Futhermore, it will be very stupid of me to leave good profits on the table. Now that the profits is safe and warm in my pocket... psychologically, i feel so much better.. i think tonight i can sleep like a baby liao. I just checked, for the month of May i made abt 10% of trading account. So far only March i lost. Rest of the months are profitable... if i can maintain at a modest average of just 5% per month for the rest of the year, by December my account should be up 75% for the year 2009. Working hard towards it! The only fear i have is self sabotaging. Many times when i am up by more than 20%, i end up taking unneccessary risk and lose a substantial amount back to the stock market. This is a flaw in my trading i must be fully aware of. If i can stop losing money, i will make more money. Loon ah! Cannot be impatient ah! That's why i avoided shorting today. It is technically still an uptrend... uptrend i should buy low sell high.

Meanwhile, i am looking to buy back if thursday is resilient. The plus sign i saw from my screening showing it may be a natural retracement in a intra-week pull back. If support holds on Thursday, we may close higher on Friday. Once again, Thursday will be key to me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Bulls over-shadowed

The market turned soft after lunch along with the big gap down by HSI. Being long on two stocks, i would have loved to see another bullish day. Unfortunately market decides to pull back. Although it is normal for market to pull back after the strong rally on Monday, but while screening the whole market, i found alot of bearish candles lying around.. those with high upper shadows.. Some even formed bearish engulfing pattern. Even STI closed rather weak off the 2400 gate. Where is the bull strength it exhibits weeks ago?

Property sector exhibits extreme weakness. After leading STI to clear the 2280 level, they showed great selling interest. What if last rally was due to window dressing? Usually they will undress, is the market experiencing undressing? If weakness continues tomorrow, i will watch those key support levels closely. Lets cross our fingers that this is just an intra-week pull back.

Financial stocks? Though STI broke through 2280 successfully, this sector has been rather mixed and muted.. most of them has yet to break their previous high. I wonder isit possible for the market to crash sharply while we no see banks break those highs? nan dao... it's a chance to....

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.